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Is the antique automobile hobby ready for the coming switchover to electric cars, etc.


Peter Gariepy

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2 hours ago, Peter Gariepy said:

 

 Most scientists consider themselves fallible, unlike people's political believes.

 

 

I can only say that the one NASA Climate Change scientist that I know personally must not be one of the "Most scientists". I also remember when the "Coming Ice Age" was supposed to be a problem, back in the 1970s. There are a number of reasonable scientists who still question the "settled science" argument. We collect cars that are 25 years of age. Few of them are currently electric. In the future, more of them will be electric. That in itself will not require much change to the hobby. 

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3 hours ago, oldcarfudd said:

If you have an ex(p)(t)ensive restoration of a car you mostly show, rather than drive, you may see quite an impact.  You'll probably always be able to scrounge up 5 gallons of gas to get between your trailer and the show field.  But how will you get from, say, Kentucky to Hershey and back?  Right now, hauling a box trailer with a pickup truck or big SUV is fairly easy;  you stop for fuel every 250 miles, fill it up in five minutes, take a pee and roar on.  All you have to be able to do is afford the fuel.  How long will it be before you have that kind of towing ease with an electric tow vehicle?


very good point.  I know there are some impressive big rigs from tesla and others in the pipeline.  Not sure about medium

duty trucks.  

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Great news:

Aston Martin is building 25 more of the iconic DB5 cars featured throughout James Bond films..

Bad news :

 

Unfortunately, the latest iteration of the DB5 is not street-legal.

 

Should you have a cool $3.5 million burning a hole in your pocket plus a few extra dollars to cover the taxes, you could take home one of the 25 available. The first deliveries are expected to take place in 2020

 

 

 

Edited by nick8086 (see edit history)
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8 hours ago, MCHinson said:

 

I can only say that the one NASA Climate Change scientist that I know personally must not be one of the "Most scientists". I also remember when the "Coming Ice Age" was supposed to be a problem, back in the 1970s. There are a number of reasonable scientists who still question the "settled science" argument. We collect cars that are 25 years of age. Few of them are currently electric. In the future, more of them will be electric. That in itself will not require much change to the hobby. 


 

If we get that far in the next fifty years, and the battery charge can’t go over 500 miles, medium trucks will have quick swap out battery packs.......under two minutes to change. It will be a lease/exchange at a roadside stop just like getting gas. Supply and demand will provide the service if it is required. Something like 95 percent of all people could use a car with a range of fifty miles or less for every day use. I think what may change things the most hasn’t even been discussed. I now live in the city. Within three miles of virtually everything I need to live. Why have a car? If autonomous cars actually happen, I can just press my App on my phone, and have my ride here whenever I want it. No parking issues, no charging issues, no insurance. And most importantly.........my car is inactive 99 percent of the time. It’s too expensive of an asset to sit still. The press and ride option will allow a car to operate at 95 percent of the time available slot......a much more efficient use of the asset. Less parking spots needed.......more room for homes, businesses, and less wasted space. I think the only certain thing is we are headed in new directions faster than most of us realize......and society hasn’t figured out how to properly use the new technology that keeps getting dumped on us. 4 million people drive trucks for a living. If we instantly have a solution that puts them out of work, the cost to society will be devastating......thus even if we have an instant solution........government will phase in the vehicles as not to cause severe economic consequences. Just another thing that big brother can get their hands on, tax, regulate, and line their posters even more. Thing about the tax and income loss of all those drivers being out of work.

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17 hours ago, joe_padavano said:

The real issue is the fact that the automobile isn't as coveted by youth as it was in prior years. We all were anxious to get our license and first car because it was the only way to connect with the outside world. The interwebs and social media have fundamentally changed that. The attitude of more and more people today is that the automobile is just a transportation appliance.

 

16 hours ago, Peter Gariepy said:

 

NOW WE HAVE SOME TALKING POINTS!  Thank you Joe!

 

I think we have many threats:

  • Apathy from youth. (your point)

 

 

With regards to the automobile not being coveted by youth or "Apathy" some here might be interested to know that at least for some brands that is not the case AT ALL.

 

For example, for close to 20 YEARS there has been a Volkswagen Car Event that has attracted MORE cars than Fall Hershey and these cars are water cooled VWs (from the 1980s to current) the vast majority that are owned by people under the age of 35? The majority of these cars are modified and are daily drivers. The passion, knowledge and love these owners have for their cars should NOT be Underestimated, Discounted or look down upon by any means. In case you are wondering I should know because for a number of years I helped a friend with this show. His show was one of the first car events in the USA to use an automated judging that uses Smart Phones. The judging at his event at one time took 2-3 hours to tabulate and verify. The new system takes MINUTES which moved up the awards ceremony by a couple of HOURS.

 

By the way, this is NOT the only event held in the USA with attendance figures like this. In a normal year there are HUNDREDS of these events held nationwide attracting anywhere from 300 vehicles on up.

 

Then there are some of the on-line forums these young folks contribute to.

Peter, how would you like to have to run a forum with stats like this:

 

Threads: 7,138,047                          Posts: 86,451,248                   Members: 1,327,667

 

I stopped counting the number of forums on this site years ago when it was in the 100s.

 

FYI, there are other on-line forums and many other social media groups that young car enthusiasts utilize as well.

 

Bottom line is, there is strong evidence that young car enthusiasts do exist. They may not be interested in Antique Cars, but they are interested in Cars.

 

Charlie

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27 minutes ago, charlier said:

Bottom line is, there is strong evidence that young car enthusiasts do exist. They may not be interested in Antique Cars, but they are interested in Cars.

 

Charlie

 

Go read my post again. I didn't say that younger car enthusiasts don't exist. I said interest is declining. A large majority of my friends are motorheads, and NONE of their children had any interest in running out on their birthday to get a learner's permit or license. Same for kids of my non-automotive friends. Did ANYONE here wait to get their license? We were at the DMV on the day after our birthdays. Sorry, I stand by my statement.

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Wait to get a license? No way myself and all of my friends (girls and guys) went the day of their 16th birthday!  It didn’t really matteer to time me as a friend of mine was a year older and always had a car available to him didn’t really like to drive. So when I was 15 he would pick me up, drive a block away from the house and we would switch.  Never gave a thought too insurance as we were having too much fun. 

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2 minutes ago, SC38DLS said:

So when I was 15 he would pick me up, drive a block away from the house and we would switch.  Never gave a thought too insurance as we were having too much fun. 

Well, here in Alberta, you would have been legal if you had a Learner's Permit.  One can get a Learner's Permit at age 14, and as long as the driver (who MUST be sitting beside you in the passenger seat) is 18 years of age, you would have been fine.

 

Craig

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2 hours ago, joe_padavano said:

 

Go read my post again. I didn't say that younger car enthusiasts don't exist. I said interest is declining. A large majority of my friends are motorheads, and NONE of their children had any interest in running out on their birthday to get a learner's permit or license. Same for kids of my non-automotive friends. Did ANYONE here wait to get their license? We were at the DMV on the day after our birthdays. Sorry, I stand by my statement.

Hell, I was at the DMV the day I could get my learners permit at 15 1/2!

Funny, I had my drag racing license when I was 14 racing in FS/A and F/X.   The F/X car ran mid 8's @ 168MPH 

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12 hours ago, MCHinson said:

 

I can only say that the one NASA Climate Change scientist that I know personally must not be one of the "Most scientists". I also remember when the "Coming Ice Age" was supposed to be a problem, back in the 1970s. There are a number of reasonable scientists who still question the "settled science" argument. We collect cars that are 25 years of age. Few of them are currently electric. In the future, more of them will be electric. That in itself will not require much change to the hobby. 

Both my daughter and son-in-law are degreed meteorologists. He got his PhD with a thesis in predicting changing weather patterns and now works at the Pacific typhoon center in HI. They both agree that the Earth's weather runs in cycles from hot to cold. It's a predictable phenomena. They say we're at the peak of a hot cycle, and starting to turn down...but neither one of them can tell me if it's going to rain this afternoon.

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Learned to drive in the Bahamas, got license when turned 16, back then to get a license that wasn't "automatic only" you had to take the test with a manual trans. Don't really remember but might have been a rental FIAT 1500 spyder. Small was good. Had to wait until 21 for an SCCA license so settled for autocrossing/rallying/economy runs in the meantime. Back then there was something in south Florida every weekend.

 

XK Jags were cheap. Then I found out why. What are Kid's choices today ? Fox body Mustangs ? My son has always had automatics.

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Returning to the comments by @1912Staver and @Pfeil on (over)population, that's ONE of the reasons for California fires:  In 1960 when I graduated HS, our population was just breaking 9 million; now it's about 40 million--so a 450% increase in just my adult lifetime.  (1980 census showed a little over 22 million, IMHO the last time urban Calif was a really great place to live.)  Just as other areas where there is only so much arable or "safe" residential areas, despite its size, Calif has almost run out of "safe" areas to lives.  Fire is natural here, and the indigenous inhabitants used controlled burns effectively.  More and more people either choose, or are "forced" (both apply) to reside in the urban-wildland interface, which is highly susceptible to fire.

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8 hours ago, nick8086 said:

Great news:

Aston Martin is building 25 more of the iconic DB5 cars featured throughout James Bond films..

Bad news :

 

Unfortunately, the latest iteration of the DB5 is not street-legal.

 

Should you have a cool $3.5 million burning a hole in your pocket plus a few extra dollars to cover the taxes, you could take home one of the 25 available. The first deliveries are expected to take place in 2020

 

 

Are they going to be electric cars? That is what this topic is about. Did you mean to post this somewhere else?

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13 hours ago, Ronnie said:

 

Are they going to be electric cars? That is what this topic is about. Did you mean to post this somewhere else?

It comes down to cost..  My kid have left the dome light on or a door open.. I spend 150.00 to replace the battery.. 

 

Not sure what it cost to replace this in  all electric car??   maybe 7k??

 

They are going about this all wrong.. They should not mandate any thing on the public..

 

They should promote.. Put in charging stations first and offer a rebate or  a tax write off.. Let the market decide what they want?

 

FYI : 1952 aero with the hurricane 6 will get 35 mpg.. Not sure why my 2006 truck  gets 12 miles per gallon.. 

 

 

No road trips. Sunday morning to Monday. Pacific Gas & Electric warned Friday it may cut power from Sunday morning to Monday, potentially affecting 97,000 customers in 16 counties..

 

 

 

 

Edited by nick8086 (see edit history)
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18 minutes ago, nick8086 said:

It comes down to cost..  My kid have left the dome light on or a door open.. I spend 150.00 to replace the battery.. 

 

Not sure what it cost to replace this in  all electric car??   maybe 7k??

 

My plug-in hybrid has a 12v “auxiliary battery”. It is used for things like the lights when the car is off and to run the computers until the DC-to-DC converter starts up when the car is turned on (12v battery is charged from the DC-DC converter). When the car is off the high voltage batteries are disconnected via a contactor/relay. The 12v battery needs to have enough juice to run the computers and to run the contactor/relay to engage the HV batteries or the car won't start. Since the HV batteries are disconnected when the car is off they don't drain, at least not very much. But if you leave the door open you can drain the 12v aux battery. That 12v aux battery is under the hood on my particular car and costs about $150 to replace. Not much difference between what you have and what is in my car as far as that detail.

 

The design of the electrical system could vary widely between different manufacturers, so I can’t say if all will have a 12v battery for this purpose or not. But I did a search and from what I found it appears that Tesla cars have a 12v lead acid aux battery too and apparently use it much the same as in my plug-in hybrid. I haven't a clue if they use some sort of contactor/relay to disconnect the HV batteries when the car is off or not but it seems like a reasonable safety measure so it wouldn’t surprise me if they did.

 

And it wouldn’t surprise me if this was common across most manufacturers of EVs: 12v automotive components (lights, entertainment systems, wiper motors, power window motors, etc.) are commodity items so are cheap to install on the car compared to what a custom 200v to 400v (or so) limited production parts would be.

 

26 minutes ago, nick8086 said:

FYI : 1952 aero with the hurricane 6 will get 35 mpg.. Not sure why my 2006 truck  gets 12 miles per gallon.. 

Detroit knows its market: 12 to 16 MPG has, in general, been good enough for sales since the 1930s, so they’d rather put the effort into things that sell better like bigger vehicles, faster acceleration, power accessories, and/or nicely appointed interiors, etc.

 

There are really only a few ways to get the manufacturers to produce vehicles with better mileage: By setting MPG standards/mandates (traditionally the US method). By making gasoline so expensive that customers demand better mileage (a method used in some other parts of the world). With the advent of hybrids 20 years ago and now with plug-in hybrids and full EVs they have tried subsidies (usually in the form of tax rebates) as a third way to encourage better gas mileage.

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17 hours ago, joe_padavano said:

Did ANYONE here wait to get their license? We were at the DMV on the day after our birthdays.

I turned 16 on October 4 of 1967.

Even then Driver Ed was a big part of our lives because just about everyone, especially us boys, were salivating over the prospect of getting our tickets to freedom.

At that time I had barely begun behind the wheel driver training which, frankly, was kind of redundant as I'd been driving my dad's '49 Jeep pickup around and in the woods for well over a year already.

I practically learned how to drive in reverse using mirrors.

My driving instructor could see actual driving was not an issue for me and after a short (required?) time flat out told me to go for my road test.

I got my license on December 2nd of that year........first time too....... 😊

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8 hours ago, nick8086 said:

FYI : 1952 aero with the hurricane 6 will get 35 mpg.. Not sure why my 2006 truck  gets 12 miles per gallon..

 

"Not sure"??? Seriously?  Does your '52 have power windows, power seats, power mirrors, power steering, power brakes, cruise, tilt wheel, a bajillion cupholders, etc, etc, etc? 

 

Noooo, I can't think of any reason why a vehicle that probably weighs three times as much gets only 1/3 the mileage.

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On 9/25/2020 at 9:53 AM, padgett said:

"DB5 cars featured throughout James Bond films" - except the one in Goldfinger wasn't a DB5.

 

There were no DB5s in the first James Bond film, "Doctor No".  The first car that James Bond drove on film was a 1957 Chevrolet convertible, and the other car he drove in the film was a Sunbeam Alpine.  Neither of these cars had electric windows, much less, electric propulsion.

 

James Bond would not have had the time or patience to worry about:

 

"Is the antique automobile hobby ready for the coming switchover to electric cars, etc."

 

Nothing but infernal combustion for Mr. Bond, James Bond.

 

Cheers,

Grog

 

P.S.  An ill-disguised attempt to get this thread back on track.

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1 hour ago, joe_padavano said:

 

Herding%20Cats.JPG?height=244&width=320

Meow.😼

 

Even though we get off topic, chase squirrels and swerve all over the road, with rare exception I learn something every time we do that. Sometimes it will even inspire me to read posts from the one individual on all the AACA forums that I've chosen to ignore!

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there is a lot of members here with more then 1 vehicle, some I see with 6 to 8 vehicles listed under there name.  

Here is something that may or not that may help the hobby, - 

1. have you ever took your vehicle and talk about it at your local high school auto shop?

2. donate a engine or vehicle to your local high school auto shop?

3. the local kid that comes by your house to see your vehicle, maybe invite him or her to local car show or morning donut run?

4. at a car show, have you ever let a kid set in your car for an photo?

The best thing you can do is drive your vehicles and show them off.

 

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On 9/25/2020 at 8:41 AM, joe_padavano said:

 

Go read my post again. I didn't say that younger car enthusiasts don't exist. I said interest is declining. A large majority of my friends are motorheads, and NONE of their children had any interest in running out on their birthday to get a learner's permit or license. Same for kids of my non-automotive friends. Did ANYONE here wait to get their license? We were at the DMV on the day after our birthdays. Sorry, I stand by my statement.

 

I sure hope all of the 1000s and 1000s of young enthusiasts I have seen over the years do have their driver's licenses then.

 

I appreciate your anecdotal evidence to your support opinion. I have only to point to my oldest nephew and ALL his friends who got their licenses without a long delay. Same goes for my other nephew and ALL his friends (different nephews in different states). Then there is my niece who has been saying since she was 14 she will have her permit when she turns 16 (now about 8 months away) and her license soon after that. She also has hinted from time to time how much she wants a car like her uncle's 18 year old VW Beetle always with that adorable smile on her face. 

 

FYI, these days it can get VERY EXPENSIVE to insure a young, inexperienced driver even if they are only a part time driver of Mom or Dad's car (think around $1.5 to $2K/year depending on location). That is what both my sister and brother tell me when each of my nephews had to be insured. When the young driver becomes the primary driver of a vehicle  you can multiply that first figure by 1.5 to 2 TIMES that number (depending on location). Whichever number you use that can be a HUGE expense for a young driver whose parents require their child to contribute towards those expenses. For at least some families this expense may be part of the reason their children are not rushing out to get their permits/licenses like most of us did when we were young and car insurance was less expensive.

 

Time will tell how all this plays out. Stay tuned.

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Here in Pennsylvania we have a 30 cent per gallon State Gas Tax. It would be a big hit on our tax revenue here, not to mention the Gasoline Companies.

My Brother in Law has a all electric car and he mentioned that his battery went dead and had to be replaced. I asked him what that cost and he said $2,000. 

 

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Everyone is getting very optimistic and presuming that what are now new electric vehicles being on the judging field in 20 to 25 years will be a big concern to us, everyone thinks they are going to be alive then? and the few of us who will be alive the cars being accepted by the AACA is going to be the biggest problem? .... really think about it

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8 minutes ago, Doug Novak said:

Here in Pennsylvania we have a 30 cent per gallon State Gas Tax. It would be a big hit on our tax revenue here, not to mention the Gasoline Companies.

My Brother in Law has a all electric car and he mentioned that his battery went dead and had to be replaced. I asked him what that cost and he said $2,000. 

 

 

Doug you would never know the collect that much, the interstates are like driving on the Ho-Chi Min trail. If the roads were bad that would be considered an upgrade.

 

Sorry to hear about your brother-in-law's expense, but how many of us had a major repair on a late model used car out of warranty?

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On 9/24/2020 at 9:41 PM, Str8-8-Dave said:

The other piece of the co2 story is the loss of plants and trees on the planet.  The locals are clearing and burning the Amazon rain forests for instance.  That's a double whammy, the loss of co2 to oxygen photo-synthesis that a tree used to produce, then burning the wood which adds co2 to the atmosphere.  That's another side effect of forest fires.

I made some comment on Facebook and everyone chimed in that Electric cars have a zero footprint in their production and I was full of _ _ _ _.  Apparently, electricity comes out of outlets too with a zero footprint.  Then, they started in on China being the worst offender - I could not help it and chimed back that the only reason why China is the worst offender is because they wanted them to be via outsourcing manufacturing and driving down profit to a level where there is no other choice than to have environmentally unfriendly manufacturing processes - I am sure they cannot see that either. 

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4 minutes ago, John_Mereness said:

I made some comment on Facebook and everyone chimed in that Electric cars have a zero footprint in their production and I was full of _ _ _ _.  Apparently, electricity comes out of outlets too with a zero footprint.  Then, they started in on China being the worst offender - I could not help it and chimed back that the only reason why China is the worst offender is because they wanted them to be via outsourcing manufacturing and driving down profit to a level where there is no other choice than to have environmentally unfriendly manufacturing processes - I am sure they cannot see that either. 

 

Because Facebook is the first place I turn when I want facts and information. I'm pretty sure my cat has a better understanding of global industrial relationships than the denizens of Facebook. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Matt Harwood said:

 

Because Facebook is the first place I turn when I want facts and information. I'm pretty sure my cat has a better understanding of global industrial relationships than the denizens of Facebook. 

 

 

What many do not understand is for example some of my observations from working at some major corporations  - ex.  I have the vendors sign statements that they will manufacture sub-components in exactly the same way we do - but turns out you do not look too close as that is not the way it is actually happening as a reality (there are some gross "chilling" environmental issues involved and you would probably be happier with blinders on just living in la la land).  Not to pick on electric cars - the supply chain is pretty screwed up for all manufacturing no matter what it is.

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On 9/25/2020 at 8:41 AM, joe_padavano said:

 

Go read my post again. I didn't say that younger car enthusiasts don't exist. I said interest is declining. A large majority of my friends are motorheads, and NONE of their children had any interest in running out on their birthday to get a learner's permit or license. Same for kids of my non-automotive friends. Did ANYONE here wait to get their license? We were at the DMV on the day after our birthdays. Sorry, I stand by my statement.

 

I didn't get my license until I was 18...I never took a "driver-ed" course.

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2 hours ago, Doug Novak said:

Here in Pennsylvania we have a 30 cent per gallon State Gas Tax. It would be a big hit on our tax revenue here, not to mention the Gasoline Companies.

My Brother in Law has a all electric car and he mentioned that his battery went dead and had to be replaced. I asked him what that cost and he said $2,000. 

 

You're brother in law must have a very small all electric car.

A NISSAN all electric LEAF battery pack replacement is $5,500 not counting labor

A all electric TESLA M3 is about $ 5-7K not counting labor

 

A Prius Hybrid battery pack is $2200-4100 not counting labor, and don't forget they have a gas engine to also maintain and emission test.

A NISSAN Altima Hybrid is $3800-4000 not counting labor, and they have a gas engine to maintain and emission testing.

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$2000 is about what it costs to replace electric golf car batteries.

Some neighborhoods allow those.

I tinker on gas powered golf cars quite a bit,  California has outlawed them. Still ok here in Oregon.

Pretty much every used battery powered golf car for sale "needs batteries". And these days you better have cores.

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