Learning The True Market Value Of An Old Car

[DrumBob]

What reference source will give me a realistic market value of a car I'd consider buying? Doesn't Hagerty have something useful? 

[auburnseeker]

Better to look at completed Auctions on Ebay and Hemmings,  as well as look around at ads with similar cars for sale, facebook , craigslist etc.  You can figure the  value of something not super rare, pretty easy with a handful of comps.  If the car doesn't linger long on the market thats a good indication of a fair price,  If it's been on the market for over a month,  then that's a good indication to use that as an overpriced example.  Condition of course and even location,  figure into the pricing as well.

[31Buick96S]

3 hours ago, DrumBob said:

What reference source will give me a realistic market value of a car I'd consider buying? Doesn't Hagerty have something useful? 

https://www.hagerty.com/valuation-tools  auburnseeker makes a good point also, but the Hagerty tool does a lot of the leg work for you.

[Mark Gregush]

I would suggest skipping big name auctions. Those prices are competition bidding (as in, I am going to outbid the other guy no matter what), not real reflection of the car market.  Of course, this also might depend on what car you are talking about. 

Edited January 13 by Mark Gregush (see edit history)

[nat]

20 minutes ago, 31Buick96S said:

What reference source will give me a realistic market value of a car I'd consider buying?

     What they have sold for.  Asking prices mean nothing.

     I bought by 50' Rocket 88 for $100.

Edited January 13 by nat
. (see edit history)

[alsancle]

15 minutes ago, Mark Gregush said:

I would suggest skipping big name auctions. Those prices are competition bidding (as in, I am going to outbid the other guy no matter what), not real reflection of the car market.  Of course, this also might depend on what car you are talking about. 

Actually, I've come to the conclusion that auction prices are not the highest and best for really nice stuff.  When you see dealers in the room buying 40% of the sold inventory that tells you everything you need to know.  They are useful to a seller that needs to get a deal by a particular date for sure, but hand selling through a good dealer will probably achieve higher results.

[Akstraw]

Of course no book is going to be definitive, but I appreciate having some reference inputs.  I have a copy of the Hagerty guide, but it only goes back to 1946.   Though some disdain it, I do consult and value the Old Cars Price Guide as another information source.  

[TerryB]

The smaller the sample size (cars sold) and the extreme variations in condition that exists in the old car world the more difficult it is to determine a price.  Ford Model A has a lot of sales history and a good database for value.  A 1948 Dodge four door sedan, not so much.  It often gets down to how much you want to spend, your own estimate of value and how much your gut tells you that you have to own it.

[John_S_in_Penna]

53 minutes ago, Akstraw said:

Though some disdain it, I do consult and value the Old Cars Price Guide as another information source.  

Over the years, Old Cars Price Guide, I feel, has been

the most thorough.  It has been pretty accurate, too.

Now I think it isn't as accurate as previously--I think

some marques have been updated but others haven't,

possibly by lack of staff time expended.  It is now

bound in the pages of Old Cars Weekly 4 times a year

instead of being a separate publication.  It's still

a guide.

 

Never look at ASKING prices, since they aren't the

final say.  These days they are often absurdly high,

even double a car's worth, especially with dealers.

[John_S_in_Penna]

58 minutes ago, Akstraw said:

I have a copy of the Hagerty guide, but it only goes back to 1946.  

I called Hagerty to check, and they no longer produce

a printed price guide book.  They stopped last year.

 

Hagerty's pricing is quite good, I feel, but as Akstraw 

said above, they don't go back really far.  And they do not

include all models--only the most popular ones, especially

for the 1970's and up.

[28 Chrysler]

"OLD CARS" a bi monthly magazine puts out a price guide each year as a reference based on sale  results and condition.
This will only give you a ballpark number, many cars or trucks of a specific year or Model may not have one sold in years so they are an estimate.

[Gunsmoke]

As summarized in the above advice from many experienced guys, there is no source for "a realistic market value for a car I'd consider buying". The nearest "big ticket" item most people buy are houses, but they are easy to establish market value because they are in fixed locations, influenced only by local forces, and supply/demand and condition. Old cars are an entirely different story. Factors like supply (lots or few), demand(read rarity or style), condition, location, price, ease of maintenance, availability of parts/service, time of year, motivation of seller (needs the money or just testing the market), color, what else is available for comparison for same money, who has rebuilt/restored the car (reputation) a buyer's make preferences (love Fords, hates Chevs), etc, all enter the mix. I've seen beautifully restored 1940 Chevrolet Coupes advertised starting at $35,000, and after a year or 2 still unsold at $22,000. Finally, the overall market is shifting annually the past few years, and any general market value today for a specific model may change dramatically in a short time. Always ask a large local carc club for some advice, they usually have a good feel for the local market.

 

My advice, buy the car you want in the best possible condition you can find, and forget what you paid, just enjoy the hell out of it. 

Edited January 14 by Gunsmoke (see edit history)

[edinmass]

Gunsmoke is 100 percent correct.

[pmhowe]

I think it is important to ask and answer the question you have posed, just to be assured that you have done due diligence and don’t end up feeling that you have been robbed. Others on this site are more experienced on that aspect so I will defer to them.

 

I mostly focus on another set of issues, but I don’t buy many cars. I use these guidelines:

 

1. What is the car I really want? And why?
2. What is my max? This is a hard upper bound dollar amount. It  is to be avoided and a last resort for something very special and way past the “I’d like to have” and pushes the budget.
3. What is my goal price?  I’m after the kind of car I really want. I’m willing to pay this price, if it is a good solid car
4. I want to know: Mechanical  condition. Interior. Paint. Undercarriage. Electrical. How the previous owner cared for it. Did he love it and cherish it? Did he know what he was doing? Why is he selling?
5. How does it drive? I want to drive the car. Partly to see if it behaves well, but mostly to see if it is for me.

 

If all of the above provide good answers, then I start rationalizing like crazy, decide why I absolutely need another car, then buy it. That is happening with less and less frequency, however.

[marcapra]

And times are changing in car tastes.  Pre-1955 cars have been dropping like a rock for the more common makes.  I see the same Chrysler Town and Countries on Ebay with asking prices in the 90K to 120K range, but I hardly ever see them selling.  I just saw a 31 Packard cabriolet in good condition where the bidding went up to 40K, but the NADA guide said the worth was between 90K and 162K.  

[Rusty_OToole]

1 hour ago, marcapra said:

And times are changing in car tastes.  Pre-1955 cars have been dropping like a rock for the more common makes.  I see the same Chrysler Town and Countries on Ebay with asking prices in the 90K to 120K range, but I hardly ever see them selling.  I just saw a 31 Packard cabriolet in good condition where the bidding went up to 40K, but the NADA guide said the worth was between 90K and 162K.  

Speaking of Chrysler Town and Countries this one just sold for $58,000. A few years ago this was a six figure car.

 

 

Edited January 14 by Rusty_OToole (see edit history)

[TTR]

22 hours ago, edinmass said:

Gunsmoke is 100 percent correct.

I second that 100%.

 

Any buyer for any specific (vintage) vehicle is the only realistic market value indicator for it.
In this case it would be what DrumBob is comfortable/willing to pay for that particular car, whatever it is.

Everything else is just meaningless/pointless hyperbole.

 

 

[John_S_in_Penna]

I'll politely have to disagree with the thoughts that

"The value is whatever you're willing to pay for it"

and essentially "don't worry about having overpaid,

just enjoy the car."

 

A newcomer to the hobby, such as Drumbob, needs

to know a range of realistic values.  So whatever a 

newcomer is willing to pay doesn't define a car's value.

If any of us car fans were looking at an old piece of art--

an area where we didn't have much knowledge--

we'd want to know more than just what we are willing to pay.

 

And not worrying about overpaying would excuse

a seller's high prices.  That seller or dealer certainly

worried about overpaying.

 

In the "Not MIne" section of our forum, people often

give ideas of value.  Our experience can help newcomers.

 

Edited January 15 by John_S_in_Penna (see edit history)

[edinmass]

Over the last twelve months, I think the market has moved in some strange new ways not seen for decades. I see stuff that I think is very cheap, and some stuff very overpriced. And much of the cheap stuff isn’t getting grabbed up. Some of the overpriced stuff is moving. I think the explanation is the new inflated economy is hitting different income levels in different ways. In my humble opinion there are no investors in the market at all right now……which I like, because the market on things that interest me tend to be soft.

[alsancle]

38 minutes ago, John_S_in_Penna said:

I'll politely have to disagree with the thoughts that

"The value is whatever you're willing to pay for it"

and essentially "don't worry about having overpaid,

just enjoy the car."

 

A newcomer to the hobby, such as Drumbob, needs

to know a range of realistic values.  So whatever a 

newcomer is willing to pay doesn't define a car's value.

If any of us car fans were looking at an old piece of art--

an area where we didn't have much knowledge--

we'd want to know more than just what we are willing to pay.

 

And not worrying about overpaying would excuse

a seller's high prices.  That seller or dealer certainly

worried about overpaying.

 

In the "Not MIne" section of our forum, people often

give ideas of value.  Our experience can help newcomers.

 

 

You are not wrong.  But his best bet is to tell us what he's looking at.   There might be a guy or two on here that knows something about the marque.

 

I've been beating the drum for years that generic guides are worthless.   Unless you really know the car internet comps to similar cars mean little.  Too many variables.

 

Even professional dealers are not sure how to price the cars they sell.

 

 

Edited January 15 by alsancle (see edit history)

[edinmass]

It’s gonna be an interesting 36 months in the collector car market……….Im not too sure anyone really knows where the different market segments are headed. While post war big boy toys…….read as over 250k-2m are popular around me here in southern Florida, I can say for certain the owners and buyers are having much different thoughts as to value. The air cooled stuff seems to be better than the fancy Fiat’s. (Ferrari)

[kar3516]

24 minutes ago, edinmass said:

Over the last twelve months, I think the market has moved in some strange new ways not seen for decades. I see stuff that I think is very cheap, and some stuff very overpriced. And much of the cheap stuff isn’t getting grabbed up. Some of the overpriced stuff is moving. I think the explanation is the new inflated economy is hitting different income levels in different ways. In my humble opinion there are no investors in the market at all right now……which I like, because the market on things that interest me tend to be soft.

Art at the high end seems to sell at ridiculous prices because buyers with unlimited resources want bragging rights.  Perhaps that works for the most expensive cars as well.  But the long time pecking order of the national prewar car clubs is fading as the members age; I believe that newer prewar buyers for moderate to medium priced cars buy what they want with little regard for what the established pecking order says.  Original survivors and older restorations both have much to offer in the value/$ evaluation.  I buy cars I like because they appeal to me for various reasons.  To each his own. 

[TAKerry]

I have found that hagerty is generally pretty close and at least gives an idea of value. One must keep in mind though that according to their pricing, most cars on the market are a #3 at best and usually have a #2 price affixed.

 

If there is a particular model you are looking at, look at places like hemmings and even Bring a trailer. The BAT may let you know what it sold for Hemmings will let you know the asking. Club publications may not be the best place as what I have observed is that people selling cars in specific marque newsletters etc. always ask a premium. 

[R Walling]

 I owned a car, that I bought new and I knew it's value.

 I listed it at $600 and sold it to a dealer who listed it at $7000.

 The guy that bought it sold it a month later for $3500.

 I next seen it for sale for $2000.

 It looked good but the frame was rotted and so was the body in all the hidden places.

 I was going to restore it, but as a body man I knew it wasn't worth the money that it needed.

 

 If you are buying, look it over very carefully and establish the costs to get it into good condition. Then decide it the final cost is what you want to pay!

[alsancle]

1 hour ago, TAKerry said:

I have found that hagerty is generally pretty close and at least gives an idea of value. One must keep in mind though that according to their pricing, most cars on the market are a #3 at best and usually have a #2 price affixed.

 

If there is a particular model you are looking at, look at places like hemmings and even Bring a trailer. The BAT may let you know what it sold for Hemmings will let you know the asking. Club publications may not be the best place as what I have observed is that people selling cars in specific marque newsletters etc. always ask a premium. 

Kerry,  a guide can work for a Trans Am because there are enough for sale, even to account for specialized models.   I would argue that for any prewar car except maybe Model A Ford, they are toilet paper.

[Brass is Best]

On 1/14/2024 at 12:37 AM, Rusty_OToole said:

Speaking of Chrysler Town and Countries this one just sold for $58,000. A few years ago this was a six figure car.

 

 

That T&C is a mess. 

[TAKerry]

I do agree that the hagerty stuff is more useful with post war vehicles. Nothing is written in stone though, but a good general guidline.

 

[joe_padavano]

The only way to find the true valuation is to sell the car and count the money. Published price guides only track sale prices at big name auctions, which isn't the real world. There is no way to build a database of private sales, nearly all of which are lower dollar value. And frankly, unless the car in question is a high volume car like a Mustang, Camaro, Corvette, etc, there aren't enough sales at these high dollar auctions to build a statistically valid database, especially for the price guides that list percentage increase or decrease in value for specific options. I guarantee you that any price guide value for my 62 Olds F85 will be a total fabrication.

 

I'll also add that people who cite ASKING prices or ebay starting bids as "proof" of value are particularly clueless. Asking a million bucks for a POS doesn't mean it's worth that much. All that matters is sale price when cash changes hands. You can track ebay completed auctions, and if you do you'll find that the high dollar cars almost never meet reserve and thus don't sell. Also beware that many cars that are "sold" end up re-listed with exactly the same ad copy and photos about two weeks later, so even a "sold" claim on ebay isn't necessarily proof of anything.

Edited January 15 by joe_padavano (see edit history)

[60FlatTop]

I have never considered myself to be a "market" buyer. I look at how much money I have and how much I want it. All that other stuff relates to someone else.

 

Back in the mid 1980s we were just beginning to see cars selling with over 100,000 miles. There is a used car lot row near me and one Saturday I sported a very nice bright red Mustang GT 5.0 5-speed that caught my eye. It had like 105,000 and flawless. Not even a fly speck on it. They wanted $4200 for the car. I tried it out, no question, a perfect car. But the mileage screwed up my head. I tried to buy it for $3600. He wouldn't move on it. By the time I got home I knew I made a mistake. They were closed when I got back. I drove down to the closed store and looked at it twice on Sunday. At work all day Monday I spent in angst waiting to get back there and close the deal. I rushed from work and got there to find it had been sold. I am writing this neatly 40 years later with a vivid memory of the stupid thing I did because of my perception of market value. Just imagine the impression that left on me. I may have bought a couple of cars on impulse that I shouldn't have, but I never repeated that mistake again.

 

And I would not hesitate to advise anyone to buy the car if you like it. Many forget that if the car doesn't meet your expectations you can always sell it. Who could buy a car and lose 100%? Like they say "Who does that?"

[TTR]

Besides, there are numerous vintage car makes/models cited in “price/value guides” that if any were actually available in such ranges there would be a long line of takers.

As J.P. above aptly pointed out, closest thing to somewhat reasonably valid statistics could only be achieved with large volume production makes/models still available in large quantities and yet only the buyer with cash in hand will determine the value of each example.

 

I only see these questions any potential buyer of any vintage car should be asking themselves:

1. Do I really like/want it ?

2. What is it worth to me, i.e. do I have funds to buy it without a single financial concern or worry ?

3. Can I afford to own it, i.e. do I have means to properly maintain, insure, restore, store, use it, etc, without a single financial concern or worry ? (Like a boat, country club membership, daily driver, house, real estate, etc, purchase of a vintage car is just an introduction and a first of many future checks to be written for it).

 

If the answer is “No”  to any of the above question, it’s pretty clearly not the right car for that person.

 

 

Edited January 15 by TTR (see edit history)

[60FlatTop]

Going back to my early days of selling cars with my grandfather I remember one of the wholesale dealers who hooked up with him. He shared a lot of his business philosophy with us and they were memorable statements. One that I can paraphrase on this topic that isn't really negative and capable of providing enjoyment in its own way would go something like: "I like to buy a cheap car and pyramid my investment with sweat equity". I smile as I write because I remember how many flips I have done to support my old car habit. I think I still have one.

 

Over 60+ years it probably tallies up to around $200,000. About the same as Tony's donations to the ponies.

[1935Packard]

17 hours ago, edinmass said:

....I think the explanation is the new inflated economy is hitting different income levels in different ways. In my humble opinion there are no investors in the market at all right now……which I like, because the market on things that interest me tend to be soft.

 

I've been wondering about the investor angle.  How many really interesting cars were bought up by investors, who are now getting out or are not getting in because prices are coming down?   Relatedly, how many interesting cars were bought up in mega-collections, tucked away in a warehouse somewhere by someone who has 100+ cars, most of which don't see the light of day— but that eventually will, when the owner passes?   Can't wait forever to see what comes on the market, but sure am curious.

[edinmass]

 

The trusts and Wall Street hedge fund guys were driving a big portion of the cars over 500k. I am familiar with one large one that now wants out and are just realizing the purchases made during and after covid were at inflated bubble pricing. They went from insisting on a profit, to realizing a bunch of their inventory was bought on the wrong end of the bell curve. I think they are eating Tums by the case. In reality how many people on the planet have the checkbook and willingness to buy cars for numbers over ........let's pick a round random number........5 million dollars. Anything over 2 million really puts about 99.99999 percent of the world out of reach. Certainly the Ferrari market has adjusted......not by huge percentages......probably 5-15 percent. The big dollar cars with stories are now almost impossible to move, as their well documented similar cars seem to be holding or down no more than 5 percent. 

[1935Packard]

26 minutes ago, edinmass said:

 

The trusts and Wall Street hedge fund guys were driving a big portion of the cars over 500k. I am familiar with one large one that now wants out and are just realizing the purchases made during and after covid were at inflated bubble pricing. They went from insisting on a profit, to realizing a bunch of their inventory was bought on the wrong end of the bell curve. I think they are eating Tums by the case. In reality how many people on the planet have the checkbook and willingness to buy cars for numbers over ........let's pick a round random number........5 million dollars. Anything over 2 million really puts about 99.99999 percent of the world out of reach. Certainly the Ferrari market has adjusted......not by huge percentages......probably 5-15 percent. The big dollar cars with stories are now almost impossible to move, as their well documented similar cars seem to be holding or down no more than 5 percent. 

 

Interesting!  Yeah, I gather that crazy-low interest rates, and then government handouts during COVID, triggered a hot market that delayed the inevitable.  

[Rusty_OToole]

There was a long period of time, like 20 years, when the federal reserve responded to every emergency by shooting cash into the banks with a fire hose. If you were in the financial industry, as a hedgie or bank CEO you got the benefit of it. Those were the guys who drove inflation in the Ferrari, mega yacht, Van Gough and  $50 million mansion markets while the rest of the economy languished.

Then they turned their attention to the rest of us during Covid, resulting in the inflation we see now, followed by cutting back and raising interest rates. So at last the party is over

[jdome]

So your $5m car investment is now only worth $4m. Find another wise investor in the same position and sell your cars to each other for the same $4m market price. You are just going side ways with your investment. You virtually traded your green car for a blue one for all you care. But you now have a $1m paper loss you can play against that $1m gain you made elsewhere, like all that $20 Tesla stock you sold when it hit $1,000. Now you Just made $1m tax free and saved $280,000 in cap gains tax. Investment Things; collector cars, rea estate,  art, always have an intrinsic value. They will always be equal in value to similar things no matter what the market does. And if the (new) investment car goes back up again in the future, you might make a little money. And if it goes down more, you might make a little money when you play the loss against another gain.  You have to play the tax code game to get ahead. That is how the big rollers get ahead. It is not illegal. Remember, paying taxes in the US is voluntary. I am not saying that as a radical anti-taxer. That is not to protect taxpayers, it is to protect the IRS from any liability to tell you when you pay more than you owe. If you want to volunteer more taxes than you legally owe, the IRS will gladly take it. They do not exist to tell you when you volunteer too much, they exist to tell when you haven't paid enough.

[alsancle]

37 minutes ago, jdome said:

So your $5m car investment is now only worth $4m. Find another wise investor in the same position and sell your cars to each other for the same $4m market price. You are just going side ways with your investment. You virtually traded your green car for a blue one for all you care. But you now have a $1m paper loss you can play against that $1m gain you made elsewhere, like all that $20 Tesla stock you sold when it hit $1,000. Now you Just made $1m tax free and saved $280,000 in cap gains tax. Investment Things; collector cars, rea estate,  art, always have an intrinsic value. They will always be equal in value to similar things no matter what the market does. And if the (new) investment car goes back up again in the future, you might make a little money. And if it goes down more, you might make a little money when you play the loss against another gain.  You have to play the tax code game to get ahead. That is how the big rollers get ahead. It is not illegal. Remember, paying taxes in the US is voluntary. I am not saying that as a radical anti-taxer. That is not to protect taxpayers, it is to protect the IRS from any liability to tell you when you pay more than you owe. If you want to volunteer more taxes than you legally owe, the IRS will gladly take it. They do not exist to tell you when you volunteer too much, they exist to tell when you haven't paid enough.

 

Somebody smarter than me can correct this but you cannot deduct your losses on a collectible car against other non collectible gains.   However, if you sell one car for a gain and another car for a loss you can in the same year.

 

And I would love for to find out otherwise.  That would make my day.

[prewarnut]

I think the answer is included within IRS Pub 523 which includes personal property. The wordage is here: "Losses from the sale of personal–use property, such as your home or car, are not deductible. It is not eligible for the capital gains loss of up to $3,000 annually. For more information, see About Publication 523, Selling Your Home."

 

 

If you have theft, destruction or natural disaster then yes you can deduct. The above scenario seems to not be a situation one can deduct. Of course I am not offering any legal or financial counsel so don't hold me liable. It is possible if the property is held in a trust or for profit entity then that might be a different story.

Edited January 15 by prewarnut (see edit history)

[1935Packard]

5 hours ago, jdome said:

Remember, paying taxes in the US is voluntary. I am not saying that as a radical anti-taxer. That is not to protect taxpayers, it is to protect the IRS from any liability to tell you when you pay more than you owe. If you want to volunteer more taxes than you legally owe, the IRS will gladly take it. They do not exist to tell you when you volunteer too much, they exist to tell when you haven't paid enough.

I get the tax-loss harvesting strategy, with the caveat that I don't know if it applies in this setting.  But whatever the answer to that, I'm skeptical of the above. 

“Paying taxes is not voluntary.” —  Wilcox v. Commissioner, 848 F.2d 1007, 1008 (9th Cir.1988). And not paying a tax that you know is due is a federal crime, as I understand things.  https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-utl/tax_crimes_handbook.pdf

 

As for the claim that the IRS could be liable by telling you have to pay more than is due, can you say a little bit about how that works?  What's the cause of action, and what are the damages? 

Edited January 16 by 1935Packard (see edit history)

[jdome]

I'm not the expert you're looking for.  However, you point out personal property; your primary residence and your personal use (daily driver) vehicles. I was referring to rental properties and cars used as an investment. The IRS allows for qualifying  collector cars to be used as an investment, but there are few allowable expenses that can be added to your base cost. In a personal investment portfolio, a loss is a loss against your gains. Ther are qualification requirements and hoops to jump through to use a car as investment, seek professional help. However, the IRS does not require you to treat a collector car as an investment nor are you necessarily required to declare any excess funds you generate from the occasional sale of personal assets that you purchase for your own personal use, such as a hobby.  It is a matter of perception but the sale of a car you've owned for 3 or more years would qualify as personal use. But the IRS does not consider selling cars and parts for fun and profit as a hobby. You can pick one but not both. If you are flipping cars, and we all know what that means, you should be reporting that income or operating as a business.