Car Values

[broker-len]

I own Two cars     32 and 36--------My interest is older      20s and before--------the conditioner of the world     has it affect values     what have you seen ??

[auburnseeker]

Watching the Not Mine cars for sale alot seem to be selling for what seem like good money.  Most are 4 door sedans priced in the 10-20 G range 50's early 60's cars and most have seem to have sold,  so the market must not be dieing on those.  Earlier stuff I'm not sure as I haven't seen much for sale that seemed realistically priced and in reasonable shape for that price. 

[TTR]

From where I sit, it's starting to look like prices/values are about to start crashing hard. Fingers crossed.

[Ben Bruce aka First Born]

8 minutes ago, TTR said:

From where I sit, it's starting to look like prices/values are about to start crashing hard. Fingers crossed.

 

 Crossing fingers for or against?

 

  Ben

[Lahti35]

I've had numerous sellers come back to me recently asking if offers I made several months ago were still good... Lots of options out there for buyers in my area it seems, lots of cars for sale sitting on FB marketplace and Craigslist unless its a smoking deal.

[F&J]

1 hour ago, broker-len said:

--------My interest is older      20s and before--------the conditioner of the world     has it affect values     what have you seen ??

My opinion,

 

The typical hobbyist brands of 1917 to 27 was once called black era as the brass went away and chrome was not invented yet.  These cars have never had a super strong following, and people who did like them are gone now, or downsizing.

 

The current situations in Dumerica, many people have lost their entire life's work and countless many more will suffer the trickle down of this insanity driven financial chaos in the many months to come.  So, the flippers (and legit/legal dealers) don't dare take a black era car these days even if the price is what used to be a no-brainer.  Flippers had always affected market prices from dropping too low, that's fact from looking back a few decades. They would have taken those era cars if the price left a lot of room for them to take a gamble.

 

Now? I just don't see any stopgaps left to keep those cars from becoming unsaleable even with drastic price drops. "nobody wants one" (Meaning very few potential buyers).  All eras are taking hits, however that one era will be a very tough reset,

[auburnseeker]

With all the talk of crashing prices,  why have sales seem to have been so hot lately on that segment I mentioned above?  Usually you don't have a feeding frenzy right before a crash in stuff like this.

I do agree guys have lots of options right now and maybe a market flooding will make it happen,  but I don't see a real influx yet on the market.  Of course once the candy govt' giveaway 600 is gone,  things may start winding down.  I still don't see a hard crash.  Maybe a steep grade but not a cliff.  I can say auction sales are most likely depressed as many bidders are staying away from the live ones.  

[John_S_in_Penna]

33 minutes ago, auburnseeker said:

With all the talk of crashing prices,  why have sales seem to have been so hot lately on that segment I mentioned above?  

 

With all of the interesting "not mine" cars posted on

our forum, some have had the Craig's List ads deleted.

But that does not mean that the car has been sold.

 

In the past, we have seen Craig's List ads removed

because, for instance, the seller decided to try Ebay.

So let's not assume that prices are hot.  Actually,

I think the asking prices have become more reasonable.

[auburnseeker]

Actually with craigslist charging for ads now,  I doubt many are deleted by the author unless sold.  I usually notice sellers cross posting on several sites using a blanket approach rather than a try here,  then pull it and try there approach.   It would be nice if they had a sold button though like facebook,  then you would know it actually sold and didn't just get deleted. 

[Fossil]

10 minutes ago, John_S_in_Penna said:

In the past, we have seen Craig's List ads removed

because, for instance, the seller decided to try Ebay.

Or they've gotten sick of the spam or low ball offers. Can't say as I'd blame them either.

[TTR]

1 hour ago, Ben Bruce aka First Born said:

 

 Crossing fingers for or against?

 

  Ben

As I've said elsewhere before (for years/decades), I hope for a hard and steep crash, so that cars I have interest having/owning would come down to levels I might afford one or two.

Additional benefit would be to flush this hobby of "flippers”/“speculators” and such, leaving it to those of us more into cars than their (perceived) "market" values and other such irrelevance for true enthusiasts.

Again, fingers crossed.

Edited July 24, 2020 by TTR (see edit history)

[Vila]

Although I don't own a car from the twenties, some of my favorite cars are from 1924 - 27.  I just don't have the space for another car, but if i had the space it would  be a car in that age group.

 

I am not sure how they are selling, but seems like the advertised prices on car up thru the early 30s have been low but rather stable for the past few years.

 

 

Edited July 24, 2020 by Vila (see edit history)

[edinmass]

6 hours ago, F&J said:

My opinion,

 

The typical hobbyist brands of 1917 to 27 was once called black era as the brass went away and chrome was not invented yet.  These cars have never had a super strong following, and people who did like them are gone now, or downsizing.

 

The current situations in Dumerica, many people have lost their entire life's work and countless many more will suffer the trickle down of this insanity driven financial chaos in the many months to come.  So, the flippers (and legit/legal dealers) don't dare take a black era car these days even if the price is what used to be a no-brainer.  Flippers had always affected market prices from dropping too low, that's fact from looking back a few decades. They would have taken those era cars if the price left a lot of room for them to take a gamble.

 

Now? I just don't see any stopgaps left to keep those cars from becoming unsaleable even with drastic price drops. "nobody wants one" (Meaning very few potential buyers).  All eras are taking hits, however that one era will be a very tough reset,

 

The above is 100 percent correct..........I see some cars having no value in the future.........the 1925 Whatzit? A small, slow, assembled car with no club or following........because there will be much better turn key cars available for very, very reasonable money. Project cars are already parts cars............I see  rare super solid cars getting cut up today on a regular basis, and many of the parts will never be used. Supply and demand. If a car isn’t currently valued in the six figure range..........it’s future sale price is going to be much lower than today. The great stuff...........read as 250k plus is doing fine, my 1991 restoration project that I have 310k in 1991 dollars won’t bring 100k today, and it’s a true 100 point Pebble Beach restoration. The slightly off years or cheaper models will also take a rather large hit......read that as a small series car or a standard eight Packard..............it hobby isn’t coming to an end.......not anywhere close, but it is changing..............the great stuff..........the car that gets an automatic invite to Pebble, Amelia, and the other major shows are doing fine............but a bunch of stuff will quickly become almost valueless. Nobody had thrown away a Ford Model A in years, but where did the hundreds of them are used to see each year go? Having 60 or 80 model A’s at a local meat was not unusual. As these cars go through the grinder of the estate sale, Family members who have no desire are going to cut them loose. I only collect Pierce Arrows for myself, and I’m looking for cars that are priced similarly from the late 70s to early 80s. That’s where I think my market is.  Recently I have seen people coming to the grasp That their car is worth about $.20 on the dollar for what they were dreaming it was worth. I’m speaking of running and driving cars. The good news is if you’re handy you’ll will buy some fantastic cars for very reasonable money. The biggest problem I have now is knowing when to pull the trigger for something I want to keep because I’m convinced there might be something better right down the road. In my 50 years in the hobby I’ve never seen that.

Edited July 24, 2020 by edinmass (see edit history)

[padgett]

Think #1 & #2 cars are still high since are few and right now are two groups doing better than many: those with lotsa disposable cash and surprisingly, those on fixed incomes.

Am seeing #3-#4 prices tumbling especially for relatively common cars (more than three on local CL) or from the '70s-90s era (20-50 years old ).

 

In other words showpieces are holding their value and drivers are not.

[JamesR]

2 minutes ago, padgett said:

Think #1 & #2 cars are still high since are few and right now are two groups doing better than many: those with lotsa disposable cash and surprisingly, those on fixed incomes.

Am seeing #3-#4 prices tumbling especially for relatively common cars (more than three on local CL) or from the '70s-90s era (20-50 years old ).

 

In other words showpieces are holding their value and drivers are not.

 

That's my impression, too. I don't examine the old car market very closely, but it seems to me that unrealistic (and even crazy) asking prices for four door drivers are going away. I can't tell you what they're actually selling for, but it seems the standard practice of sellers throwing an additional 2000 - 4000 dollars on top of what a drivable '66 Belvedere sedan with a 318 should realistically sell for is a lot less common. Again, I'm refering to asking prices.

[F&J]

1 hour ago, edinmass said:

..............it hobby isn’t coming to an end.......not anywhere close, but it is changing..............the great stuff..........the car that gets an automatic invite to Pebble, Amelia, and the other major shows are doing fine............but a bunch of stuff will quickly become almost valueless.

Ed, Listening to what you and AJ had discussed a while back, is why I had to think a lot more clearly about monetary values changing rapidly..  You guys were correct again....

 

But as you just wrote above; "the hobby is not coming to an end, but is changing"...  I wonder if prices do drop dramatically (and surely will)... on cars in your other Quote:  "...I see some cars having no value in the future.........the 1925 Whatzit? A small, slow, assembled car with no club or following....."  Will we see perhaps a few young and mid aged persons finally grab one just to tinker/enjoy?

 

What I mean is that you being from Mass, you must recall around here in New England, how the really old barn cars got too pricey for a casual low buck tinkerer/hobbyist, so some of those hobbyists went to collecting/showing once inexpensive Pop Engines instead...then those went way too high in value, so then it was on to old cheap tractors instead.... etc.  Will we see a restart of that past cycle if the 1925 whatzit is soon very cheap again?  Not monetary interest, but just basic curiosity/tinkerer interest. 

[padgett]

Is also the people, the heart of the hobby has always been the young/middle class familyman who might have an old Mustang or Corvette in the garage. These are the ones who are scared now and taking nothing for granted. That reduces demand for the "lesser but interesting" cars particularly when an important member of the family never could understand the desire for something old and cranky. One is enough.

[Paul Dobbin]

Most buyers are looking for Grand National Winner at a # 3 or 4 price.  Of course when you are selling a # 3 or 4 car you get lots of dreamers and know it alls.

Now if you are asking a #1 Grand National price for the # 3 or 4 car, shoppers who are hoping to find a mis-informed seller and get a steal, will waste your time.

I don't see much changing in that regard.

[1935Packard]

2 hours ago, edinmass said:

...........the great stuff..........the car that gets an automatic invite to Pebble, Amelia, and the other major shows are doing fine............but a bunch of stuff will quickly become almost valueless. 

 

Ed, how much of that is because the great stuff that gets an automatic invite to Pebble etc. is known without having to be actually inspected?   I gather that for that subset of cars, there are experts who know the cars who can advise the big $$$ buyers on them.  It's not like the buyers are crawling under them or checking the body panels for bondo.  So I can imagine of you're a big $$$ guy who wants to buy a car for top shows, the pandemic doesn't really impact your buying decisions.   And with stocks still very high -- perhaps irrationally, but that's another disussion -- little may have changed for that crowd?  Just curious about the mentality driving that part of the market....

Edited July 24, 2020 by 1935Packard (see edit history)

[edinmass]

Nothing gets to Pebble without getting vetted. It takes a personal guarantee of people who know the cars or the restoration shops or the owners. Nothing slips by them. Cars that are particularly prone to fraud or rebody Must be proven or they don’t get a chance. Most of the judges are intimately familiar with all the great cars that apply.

Edited July 24, 2020 by edinmass (see edit history)

[1912Staver]

Local to me; Western Canada , I have seen a small number of CL cars that seemed to me to be very fairly priced . Bargain range even, and sold within a very short time One or two days and their gone. Buyer's are out there , but very price sensitive. If you aren't priced at what most would call 

80% - 90% of " retail ", you are going to own it for a long time. And it better be an in demand model. Projects are selling too , but only at a price that is very good value for money compared to the last decade.

 

Greg in Canada

Edited July 24, 2020 by 1912Staver (see edit history)

[wayne sheldon]

I don't want prices to fall much. Yes, I would like to pick up a bargain or two for me to enjoy in my last decade. But mostly, I like the cars. I value the history, and preservation of that history. The cars need thousands of everyday folks to care for them. Otherwise, the top one percent of the cars may be well preserved by the top one percent financial people, but most of the other 99 percent of cars will be left out to rot.

Ten years ago, I read some official statistics that showed the middle class (the 80 or so percent that do 99 percent of the work, and providing all the food and toys we all need and want in order to live and enjoy life) had (then) lost about 80 percent of their "wealth". They have not regained that since. Only half as many people today own their homes as they did fifteen years ago. And most that do own their homes for more than twenty years now have little if any significant equity in that home. I could go on for pages about how people today are paid much less than they were twenty years ago, yet are paying much more for most things they need in relative dollars. For most people, discretionary dollars have mostly disappeared.

 

If people cannot afford to own a place to KEEP those antique automobiles? They WILL be left outside to rot or sold for scrap! That will be a tremendous and largely irreversible loss for historic preservation.

The way this country, and the world, is today? The pervasive corruption, politics founded solely upon lies, absolutely fraudulent business practices as the whole basis for too many business plans? With a "lapdog/parrot" approach to nearly all journalism? The crash that is coming will make the great depression look like a company picnic.

And most of the historic cars and other things we have tried to preserve for future generations will be lost forever.

 

I think I need to go crawl under a blanket and suck my thumb for awhile.

Edited July 24, 2020 by wayne sheldon
spotted a typo :( (see edit history)

[padgett]

Guess there will always be ants and grasshoppers. Of course those who plan are probably considered "too future oriented" and lack "consumerism"

 

If I crawl under a blanket, within a few minutes there will be a purring cat on top.

[Matt Harwood]

Prices should be up--inventory is way down everywhere. I went from 110 cars in February to 47 in May-June. I'm only just starting to refill our inventory and went to Mecum last week and brought home three just to help full the place back up. I note that inventory is down everywhere, not just collector car dealers but late-model used car dealers, too. Stuff is FLYING off the shelf at fairly strong prices. Cars I've had laying around for a year have finally sold without me having to adjust the price. 

 

So yes, right now, prices should be strong. People are sitting at home shopping and buying cars. I've said it before--your car will never be more valuable than it is right this moment. The market won't go up or come back, this is it, right now. The glory days are over. If you bought your car more than a year ago, you WILL lose money when you sell it. Period.

 

If/when things go back to "normal" I think we'll see two things happen. One, a good many of the cars that aren't on the market will be on the market. I'm talking to people who are fearful of putting their cars out there because they [wrongly] believe that the market is dead due to the COVID situation or because they don't want to interact with people and risk getting sick. And two, with everyone shopping and buying now, when things go back to "normal" later, they're all going to have cars already and the market will shrivel.

 

Those two factors are going to result in a fairly steep hiccup in the market, a drop, a correction, whatever you want to call it. And it will be largely permanent, since a great many of the guys selling are older and won't want to face another situation like this with so many liabilities on the ledger. They won't be buying, they'll be selling. There is no wave of younger enthusiasts behind them to take up the slack, unless you're selling '80s cars and BMWs. That's it. Lots of cars, not many buyers. 

 

That's just my theory, and I'd like to hear anyone else's thoughts. But it's all real data that happens in real time in my shop. The good news is that cars WILL get cheaper. Not soon, probably, because people won't change their ways very quickly and will hold out for historic numbers to return, but eventually they'll realize that to sell they have to chop their price. Good for those of us who will live long enough to benefit from it and get cars that would have been out of reach in the past. The bad news is that there's going to be a glut of cars for sale at all levels and fewer buyers every day, and that will make the cars you currently own worth less, probably much less. You know that feeling when you crest the first hill of a roller coaster but haven't started going down the other side yet? That's right about where we are now.

However, all that said, if you're doing this hobby properly, none of that matters one whit to you and you just can't wait to get behind the wheel and drive somewhere. To hell with all this money talk.

 

 

Edited July 25, 2020 by Matt Harwood (see edit history)

[keithb7]

My personal perspective:

I’m at the point of hand polishing brake wheel cylinders myself to get them to seal! Lol. Resealing and driving on them again to divert another $1 from the money pit that is also known as my vintage car. Sure I’d love to open the wallet and toss thousands at it. It would look amazing.A $750 new wiring harness? Right now, I make my own harnesses and pack a good sized fire extinguisher. 😕
 

Professional re-upholstery and paint? Man, that would be awesome! Nope. Not in the current plan. 
 

In todays uncertain economic times I know that cash could be king if crap all falls apart. No debts. No financing. Horde cash.  That’s my plan until further notice. 
 

So for now, I have a solid driver. I’ll continue to hone my skills and maintain a solid, safe driver.  
 

Car values today largely depend on the car and how desirable it is. I get that. I’m into the old cars as a hobby. To me my ‘38 car is like the go-cart I loved when I was a kid. I get to keep making it a little better everyday. I throw a little money at it  here and there, and a ton of my time, often. I get to enjoy those summer evening cruises. I’m happy and love the old P.O.S. 

[padgett]

And if everything falls apart will we need wheelbarrows ? (Have a few monopoly set populated with currencies that crashed). My idea of a hedge is a 3% fixed mortgage.

[Buffalowed Bill]

Being able to do the hobby properly, is so often a matter of the individual hobbyist's ability to participate. It all depends on how much the individual has in his tank. IMHO the young are inheriting a legacy from the generation of people dedicated to preservation and restoration. It's not likely that the beneficiaries will have the inclination or the need to pay the dues that were once required to pay the game. I'm not complaining just calling it the way I see it.  

[Tph479]

7.8 billion people in the world and counting. With inflation and population growth the hobby will be fine. Don’t forget that every year there are about 70 million motor vehicles built and added to the market place. Every year more cars become collectible and the inventory grows. In my area if you wanted to you can attend some sort of cruise night or event every night of the week that are attended by all years and makes of cars. If you read older magazine articles you will see that they have been writing about the falling sky for generations.
 

p.s.- I call dibs on all the custom body Packard’s and Duesenberg’s that will cheaply be coming to the market.....

[padgett]

Well believe it or don't I have "enough" toys. Do have one more plate and could "rescue" one more under 180" but have no desire to. The 230 has had a new fuel pump and filter under it for a while but garage is over 100F during the day now & problem can be expressed in one word "motivation".

[60FlatTop]

I will never stop being an old car impulse buyer. I have tried the planning and calculating. Maybe the side of my brain that does the planning and calculating is good for earning the money I impulsively buy a car with.

 

At least that's what my experience tells me.

[padgett]

Nice thing about having "enough" is that you can ignore opportunities unless something absurd comes along. Really had no buisiness buying the SLK230 but had a manual transmission, cosmetically is nice (and have parts for interior) had a Florida title and was only a few benjamins. Looked a duplicate of another thutty yar old car (I like spares)  lowballed because has an out-of-state title. Is one of those cases where kinda hope it is refused.

 

ps except for the tow car (bought new, paid off in two years) I always pay cash and limit to number of garage spaces.

[Guest]

 My problem is that people keep giving me cars, and what else is there to do but restore them.🛠️