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National meet--postpone, cancel, or no change?


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I'm optimistically hoping that the end of the typical flu season causes a subsidence of all flu's so those who wish to brave public exposure can attend this summer with a good level of confidence that they can be safe.  I'd love to see that 1918 model!

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As much as I would like to see the meet postponed to late Aug or Sept as proposed, I feel we will see a second,but not as severe, Covid 19 uptick in June/July as people begin to move about again. The healthcare system will be in a better position to handle this outbreak; however, it would seem to make sense to cancel for this year. I hope wheels can be set in motion to have Northeast Ohio Chapter have the opportunity to host in 2023 or 2024 as has been suggested.  I also hope the BCA will be able to minimize any losses and be aggressive in insisting those losses be shared by the hotels etc.  I agree with Willie (Old Tank) that this is why the club has these supposedly "Excessive" reserves to be able to respond to extraordinary events.

I speak both personally and as Director of the Glass City Chapter.

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On 4/3/2020 at 9:49 AM, kgreen said:

I'd love to see that 1918 model!

I don't think you would.  The second wave of the Spanish flu was deadlier than the first.

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On 4/2/2020 at 7:56 PM, lancemb said:

Perhaps you're right

 

I read every word of the posts I choose. My first thought was, what if I put everyone who didn't use your and you're correctly on the ignore list. THAT would cut down on the reading.

Only reason I wrote that was because you did it right. That draws my attention.

 

Bernie

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22 minutes ago, 60FlatTop said:

 

I read every word of the posts I choose. My first thought was, what if I put everyone who didn't use your and you're correctly on the ignore list. THAT would cut down on the reading.

Only reason I wrote that was because you did it right. That draws my attention.

 

Bernie

Likewise with use of comma vs. semicolon

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Postpone to fall.  Perhaps plan a shorter, tighter meet with less tours.  The curve looks like it will start turning the human races’ way in 4 weeks.  
 

By July things will be returning to normal. By September states will have lifted travel restrictions.  
 

Motels are suffering. Economy is suffering. A meet will help.  

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50 minutes ago, B Jake Moran said:

Postpone to fall.  Perhaps plan a shorter, tighter meet with less tours.  The curve looks like it will start turning the human races’ way in 4 weeks.  
 

By July things will be returning to normal. By September states will have lifted travel restrictions.  
 

Motels are suffering. Economy is suffering. A meet will help.  

You are very optimistic, and not taking a second wave into consideration. Yes, things will be moving along again by September but they still will recommend social distancing and care for up to a year 

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On 3/31/2020 at 12:44 PM, KongaMan said:

Lotta freaking out going on.  Folks tend to forget that worst-case projections are only projections. and that there are experienced and qualified people who suggest that the virus may not be as contagious and/or as virulent as the apocalyptical scenarios would have you believe.  As more testing is done and more reliable data is gathered, the picture will come into sharper focus. 

 

Please stop the magical thinking. While you are correct in that more testing will help bring more data, the data we have now shows this virus is far more contagious than the ebola and influenza viruses. (I hope the reports you're reading discuss the R0 of the virus.) The testing to be done will most likely show that the extent of this contagion is virtually unknown. It won't be anytime this year that we'll have any solid understanding of the impact. (e.g. Just in this morning's news out of Houston the hospitals are becoming overwhelmed, but the official numbers are not indicating any surge of cases.) Before this is over, every person in this country will either know someone who has contracted this virus, or will have contracted this virus themselves. It is not like the flu.

I've had 2 friends of mine die from COVID-19 so far. One the same age (64,) the other several years younger. Both were in excellent shape, the younger an athlete. Don't make the mistake and think you're invincible. While it's accurate to quote the stats, you don't want to be one of those stats. 

Bottom line is we will not have any real expectation of having a large gathering of people this year. It won't be until a vaccine is developed and we get the knowledge of how to treat the disease that it will be reasonable to expect to resume such activities. The meet should be canceled. As someone above said "Plan for the worst, hope for the best."

Edited by Ken C. (see edit history)
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2 hours ago, Ken C. said:

It won't be until a vaccine is developed and we get the knowledge of how to treat the disease that it will be reasonable to expect to resume such activities.

I completely agree. 

A BCA trophy is not worth risking your life or the lives of others!

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13 hours ago, Y-JobFan said:

You are very optimistic, and not taking a second wave into consideration. Yes, things will be moving along again by September but they still will recommend social distancing and care for up to a year 

 

I installed 2 robotic lab instruments last week one in Illinois and have been around some experts.  I can not go into more details.   Yes there will be hot spots, yes it sucks to hear about deaths and yes the BCA has an average age of 70 +, so if a member is uncomfortable coming, don't come.   But there will be no 2nd wave.

 

I agree it is not hysteria.  People do need to take it seriously.  But if they do, then we will be OK by September.  One of the concepts of the BCA National meets is the geographical selection site.  It is chosen so those members who have been restoring cars for years can go and get a trophy or at least judged without a long commitment to the next National location.    This would be for them I guess. 

 

Postponement or cancel seem to be the choices.

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Interesting read from the CDC, (not I heard a thing from somebody while working) https://www.newsweek.com/cdc-director-coronavirus-wave-late-fall-substantial-portion-americans-will-susceptible-1495401?amp=1. I guess the same could have been said about people restoring cars for years and not having them judged the year of the Allentown meet , so obviously that thought process is mute to the BCA 

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7 hours ago, Ken C. said:

Please stop the magical thinking. While you are correct in that more testing will help bring more data, the data we have now shows this virus is far more contagious than the ebola and influenza viruses. (I hope the reports you're reading discuss the R0 of the virus.) The testing to be done will most likely show that the extent of this contagion is virtually unknown. It won't be anytime this year that we'll have any solid understanding of the impact. (e.g. Just in this morning's news out of Houston the hospitals are becoming overwhelmed, but the official numbers are not indicating any surge of cases.) Before this is over, every person in this country will either know someone who has contracted this virus, or will have contracted this virus themselves. It is not like the flu.

Please stop the fear-mongering. Contagious and lethal are not synonyms.  Let's use a weather analogy.  It's sprinkles over a large area vs. a localized hurricane.  

 

And no one knows what R0 is; guesses vary wildly, but most seem to be between 2.4 and 2.6.  Similarly, no one knows how many cases there are because the amount of testing done (particularly of the asymptomatic or those with only mild symptoms) is inadequate to make an accurate projection.  It is ever thus; post-epidemic reviews estimate that the US undercounted swine flu infections by 700%.

 

If you want to determine the death rate, you need to know how many people were infected and how many people died.  We know neither number.  So, you work with the numbers you do have -- and current information seems to indicate that the virus is contagious but not devastatingly virulent (90+% of those infected have no or mild symptoms).  That may be of small comfort (you can get to an alarming body count through either a highly contagious/low virulence scenario or a mildly contagious/highly virulent scenario), but making an accurate assessment of which scenario is accurate is paramount to developing countermeasures which are both effective against the disease and have minimal damaging consequences of their own.

 

Finally, it should be noted that hysteria can be every bit as contagious as a virus -- and every bit as harmful.

Edited by KongaMan (see edit history)
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Please circle back and re-read the original post and its intent.


You are all off a tangent and need to get back to the original purpose of this post.

 

If you want to talk "COVID-19" there are plenty of other placed to do it.

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1 hour ago, KongaMan said:

If you want to determine the death rate,

 

You need to ask a statistician. I watch TV and keep hearing they are working with statistics, which would be my approach to most things, even  a compression test prior to a tune up. But "I" lack the credentials to be a leader.

The county just west of me, Orleans county, New York, has had 22 cases and one death. The statistics are based on 100,000 population. The county population is 57,000. So data shows37.9 cases and1.7 deaths.

 

I have 1 twelve cylinder car, 4 eight cylinder cars, 1 six cylinder car, and a 4 cylinder tractor. No one from Washington will be invited to my next tune up, that's zero, statistically speaking.

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Hello again, to a certain extent of the Buick Show in Strongsville will be up State of Ohio if it happens or not, if the stay at home,no large gatherings , etc the decision will be made for us. Perhaps the club can estimate if they are at the point of cancellation as close to the event as possible.

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2 hours ago, Peter Gariepy said:

You are all off a tangent and need to get back to the original purpose of this post.

 

Peter,

    The topic is a discussion of options regarding the BCA National Meet. And, it is obvious that the reason for this discussion is the COVID 19 pandemic.

One of the options specified by Pete is #3 "Cancel it due to health concerns and not hold a national meet this year".  

So, it seems you are being a bit heavy handed in trying to limit this discussion.

 

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3 hours ago, gdmn852 said:

Hello again, to a certain extent of the Buick Show in Strongsville will be up State of Ohio if it happens or not, if the stay at home,no large gatherings , etc the decision will be made for us. Perhaps the club can estimate if they are at the point of cancellation as close to the event as possible.

I would expect a decision following the BOD teleconference meeting on April 15, a week from Wed. The NMC teleconference is set for tomorrow evening, and we will make our recommendation to the BOD following that meeting.

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I still think, if possible, postpone with option to cancel (determine in advance what the "point of no return" date is) is the best course of action.

 

Remember, this thing got worse at a faster rate than the vast majority of people expected, and it stands a good chance of becoming latent or 90% better very quickly as well in a short time.  Let's not "throw the baby out with the bathwater" just yet.

 

I don't think this is stupid btw and I don't have a long history of making poor decisions or having poor self-reflection. 

 

It may well be that the lens we look through in late summer may show us that cancellation is the best course of action, but I strongly contend there is a reasonable possibility that it may be reasonable to continue at that point, and even if not as big of a meet, may offer some much-needed normality and club funds.

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17 hours ago, Peter Gariepy said:

Please circle back and re-read the original post and its intent.


You are all off a tangent and need to get back to the original purpose of this post.

 

If you want to talk "COVID-19" there are plenty of other placed to do it.

 

Thank you Peter

 

18 hours ago, KongaMan said:

 

Finally, it should be noted that hysteria can be every bit as contagious as a virus -- and every bit as harmful.

 

And with that I agree. And what creates hysteria, distress and even depression? Very often watching too much news and following all the sensationalism,  misinformation and false reports of social media which imo has now, with this thread, come to include this BCA forum. There is a fine line between being well-informed and over-informed. I think a lot of the actual opinions that have been stated here are relevant but much has been said also that has nothing to do with the subject as I think Pete intended to cover in his initial post. I've taken to  watching the news only once or twice a day and limiting social media mostly except for this forum. As I was still considering attending the Ohio meet I've been following this thread somewhat closely but now I think I'll just drop back in after April 15th to see what Jack has to report.

 

11 hours ago, Jack Welch said:

I would expect a decision following the BOD teleconference meeting on April 15, a week from Wed. The NMC teleconference is set for tomorrow evening, and we will make our recommendation to the BOD following that meeting.

 

THANKS Jack!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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One shouldn't anticipate much suspense about what that decision will be.  In times of uncertainty, decisions are often taken not from the desire to do the right thing, but from the fear of doing the wrong thing.  More cynically, there's little risk to going with the flow.  If everyone else is doing it, you're inoculated from criticism by following along.

 

As a practical matter, comments on here suggest that if the meet were to be held, attendance would be somewhere between sparse and abysmal.  That is, the membership's perception of and reaction to the perceived health risk is likely the primary factor determining the viability of the meet.  IOW, there's no sense in throwing a party if no one comes.

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Cancel it.

 

If the NMC decides to proceed with the original July 15-18, 2020 dates or postpone it until late-August or September, I would strongly advise to have the BCA's insurance agent and the Host Hotel's insurance agent to be part of the teleconference meetings.

 

Al Malachowski

BCA #8965

"500 Miles West of Flint"

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I check this thread from time to time, although I had to sell my Buick. It is with great anguish that I realize by the time you read this, you will know that the virus has taken John Prine at the age of 73. 😢😥😢😥😢😥 I find it almost surreal that this topic is even under discussion. Please play this game safety first.    -   ex "Buick Bubba"

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4 hours ago, C Carl said:

Please play this game safety first.

 

Nuf said, thank you.

 

 

I heard the sad news last night @C Carl  He be "leavin on a new train" now . May he find that 9 mile long cigarette and smoke the hell out of it.

Rest easy now John

 

 

 
 

 

 

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On 4/6/2020 at 4:59 PM, Mark Shaw said:

Peter,

    The topic is a discussion of options regarding the BCA National Meet. And, it is obvious that the reason for this discussion is the COVID 19 pandemic.

One of the options specified by Pete is #3 "Cancel it due to health concerns and not hold a national meet this year".  

So, it seems you are being a bit heavy handed in trying to limit this discussion.

 

 

As it relates to the meet only. I am in my right as the forum moderator to keep all posts car and car club related.

Many are off on tangents unrelated to the meet as it relates to the reason why to cancel.

COVID is not what this threat is about.  The meet and is.

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1 hour ago, Peter Gariepy said:

 

As it relates to the meet only. I am in my right as the forum moderator to keep all posts car and car club related.

Many are off on tangents unrelated to the meet as it relates to the reason why to cancel.

COVID is not what this threat is about.  The meet and is.

 The meet and is?

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1 hour ago, Peter Gariepy said:

 

As it relates to the meet only. I am in my right as the forum moderator to keep all posts car and car club related.

Many are off on tangents unrelated to the meet as it relates to the reason why to cancel.

COVID is not what this threat is about.  The meet and is.

 

Peter,

 

I beg to differ.  As a member of the BCA Board of Directors, the discussions to date has been centered on the best interests of the membership.  Those discussions include include the demographics and health and safety of our members which is number one.  

 

It is generally accepted that there is a very large number of members that are defined by health experts as "at risk" to this virulent virus.   The number one risk is age.  All persons over 65+- are considered "at risk".  The short list of other at risk health issues include, high blood pressure, diabetes, heart conditions, over weight, pulmonary issues to name a few.  I am confident that our many of our membership can check off at least a couple of these issues. 

 

The health and safety of our membership is paramount to making a decision that is in the best interests of the club.  Plus there are others issues that I have not brought up but health & safety is number one on the list. 

 

That is why this discussion is of utmost importance.

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Agree with Larry.  It's impossible to have a thorough discussion of what to do about meet without discussing risks, which is impossible to do without discussing Covid-19 specifics.

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16 hours ago, Peter Gariepy said:

As it relates to the meet only. I am in my right as the forum moderator to keep all posts car and car club related.

Many are off on tangents unrelated to the meet as it relates to the reason why to cancel.

COVID is not what this threat is about.  The meet and is.

 

Guys, re-read Peters post. All he is asking is to try and limit the discussion to as how COVID relates to postponing or canceling the Meet. He never said not to discuss Covid. Of COURSE this discussion is "of utmost importance", he never said it wasn't and never even hinted at editing or closing it, so quit reading things into his words and lighten up. As I commented above there have been MANY good points made that I hope or would think that the NMC and BOD are already considering. But there are also several jibber jabber posts from armchair doctors and apparent COVID experts that imo only serve to raise anxiety and "hysteria, I for one can do without those. And I am probably guilty of same myself with the John Prine video I posted above. I submit to you that those are the posts or tangents Peter is referring to and if we simply carry on as he has asked this thread will continue to have good substance and value. 

OK, getting down from my Kiss the Moderators A** stool now. :D

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I just called the host hotel to cancel my reservation.  They said it was already cancelled (no explanation).   Maybe the NMC  and/or BOD is involved??

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47 minutes ago, old-tank said:

I just called the host hotel to cancel my reservation.  They said it was already cancelled (no explanation).   Maybe the NMC  and/or BOD is involved??

 

all in due time...

On 4/6/2020 at 10:12 PM, Jack Welch said:

I would expect a decision following the BOD teleconference meeting on April 15, a week from Wed. The NMC teleconference is set for tomorrow evening, and we will make our recommendation to the BOD following that meeting.

 

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3 hours ago, old-tank said:

I just called the host hotel to cancel my reservation.  They said it was already cancelled (no explanation).   Maybe the NMC  and/or BOD is involved??

 

I took it upon myself to cancel your reservations at the same time I did mine.....🤥

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17 minutes ago, Brad Conley said:

 

I took it upon myself to cancel your reservations at the same time I did mine.....🤥

 As your nose grows🤣

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Just now, Brad Conley said:

Yep, that's what that emoji is, Lying.  😂


thanks for the smiles 😊 they go a long way

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2 minutes ago, BUICK RACER said:

Well, I just looked up my  hotel reservations and they are canceled not by me?

 

If the hotel cancelled the party then there will be none.

If "somebody" told the hotel to cancel, then we will find out soon (?)

Just to be safe, everybody should check their reservation to be sure.

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