Collector-car market continues fall from 2021 heights (Don't kill the messenger if you disagree)

[Reynard]

The Hagerty Market Rating continues to fall from its heights last summer, dropping more than 1.5 points in July. That’s the largest single-month drop in over three years. If the Market Rating continues its trajectory, it may depart the “rapid expansion” segment, something it has not done since November of 2021.

 

Read on...

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/collector-car-market-continues-fall-from-2021-heights/ar-AA1eupT9?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=be5b00c4031e44819957672251521bb0&ei=19

[alsancle]

Do you take that graph seriously and if so why?

[Brass is Best]

Yawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwn

 

[Matt Harwood]

Basing their conclusions on a comparison with Covid sales is a rather substantial mistake. Even a freshman statistics student in high school would know that.

 

Every car dealer I know and talk to had their best year ever in 2021, myself included. It has been softer since then. Not the same as pre-Covid, but there was definitely a bounce when nobody could do anything, the money was sitting around doing nothing, and cars were a safe place to park some cash.

 

Also, Hagerty bases almost all their "market knowledge" on insured values and how many cars are insured by them and for what figure. I wonder if they control for people who left the company for another insurer, or sold their car to someone who wasn't insured by Hagerty, or who took their car off the road for some reason. All these could be factors in their conclusions.

 

The sky isn't falling. This is just a certain segment of the hobby trying to make old cars into an acceptable "investment" vehicle comparable with stocks. It's all nonsense.

[Bhigdog]

If you want to make a small fortune in the old car hobby start with a big one. Notice I said HOBBY..........Bob

[alsancle]

26 minutes ago, Bhigdog said:

If you want to make a small fortune in the old car hobby start with a big one. Notice I said HOBBY..........Bob

Collecting cars can make you a millionaire.  Of course, you need to start as a multi-millionaire.

[Bhigdog]

12 minutes ago, alsancle said:

Collecting cars can make you a millionaire.  Of course, you need to start as a multi-millionaire.

I,m above water on all my cars only because i did almost every thing myself. Of course if you figure in my labor and overhead i would be better off if i spent the time flipping burgers....bob

[avgwarhawk]

I never considered a classic car as a retirement plan. It is something to do when retired.  It's a hobby. It's simply enjoyment. After I'm gone my kids can get whatever they can for my cars. Maybe they will keep them.  I certainly don't need them where I'm going. But....if there is a classic car of choice where I end up it will be a 59 Buick Invicta. 

[Pfeil]

Been watching Mecum Harrisburg. Seems the early part of the auction prices for the average person to buy are lower than I expected for what looked like some nice cars. Among the car people I'm around there is the fear of what's next. I know friends in Ca. that have had (not just car insurance) but umbrella policies that they have had for decades either go through the roof or prominent companies just leave the state altogether. The news is telling us the high cost of insurance will hit everywhere. That fear of what's next is exacerbated by talk of no gas stoves, changes to dishwashers, Heater/Air conditioners, water heaters and other appliances. Anyone put a roof on a house lately? Doubled in two plus years! Some of the guys think cars will be on the chopping block as far as some kind of restrictions to non-essential vehicles or problems with fuel or fuel supply. And they are very worried about this digital currency talk, which will put an end to all the swap meet stuff. 

I'm just a retiree who has seen my bank savings loose 20% of its buying power in the last two+ years. 

I'm hoping that the cars I have will outlast me, but the longer I live their chances go down they won't.

[Twisted Shifter]

6 minutes ago, avgwarhawk said:

I certainly don't need them where I'm going. But....if there is a classic car of choice where I end up it will be a 59 Buick Invicta.

                                              👅   ...hope it won't be too hot to drive   

[trimacar]

This topic always entertains me.

 

There are exceptions, but probably 90% of cars bought for "investment", aren't. Or, aren't an investment, at least.

 

If one is lucky enough to love a car which appreciates in value, great.  If one buys a car which one loves, drives it, enjoys it, and loses some money when sold, sheesh, of course that's the way to go.

 

Does one really invest in a T-bone steak expecting a return, or just enjoyment?

 

Go play golf, or go hunting and collect deer heads, see how your hobby pays dividends.

[Dave Wells]

17 minutes ago, trimacar said:

 

Does one really invest in a T-bone steak expecting a return, or just enjoyment?

 

Go play golf, or go hunting and collect deer heads, see how your hobby pays dividends.

 

A T bone steak is about the opposite of old car ownership. With a T bone, you start with a complete  meal and end up with the bone. With an old car, many start with the bones and end up with a complete car.

 

With golf, you start with a full set of clubs and a bag of golf balls. I've seen many a golfer end the game having lost a good number of golf balls and having damaged, broken or "lost" clubs. (Check the water hazards.)

 

When I deer hunt, I end up with meat in the freezer and jerky to gnaw on!

Edited July 28, 2023 by Vinny... (see edit history)

[zepher]

The value of my two pre-war cars means little to me.

Both cars have been in the family longer than I have, so they are family heirlooms that will be passed down to the next generation when I am gone.
I am simply this generation's caretaker.

Hopefully, the next generation takes a real interest in the cars and keeps them on the road and just does not sell them before I'm even in the ground.

[trimacar]

5 minutes ago, Vinny... said:

 

A T bone steak is about the opposite of old car ownership. With a T bone, you start with a complete  meal and end up with the bone. With an old car, many start with the bones and end up with a complete car.

 

With golf, you start with a full set of clubs and a bag of golf balls. I've seen many a golfer end the game having lost a good number of golf balls and having damaged, broken or "lost" clubs. (Check the water hazards.)

 

When I deer hunt, I end up with meat in the freezer and jerky to gnaw on!

That's one of the best replies I've ever seen, well done.....

 

My brother is a big hunter, he told me that we'd probably spent the same amount on our hobbies (hunting camps, rifles and shotguns, not cheap), but I have a few cars in the garage I could sell, he has a few deer heads and duck feathers...

[pmhowe]

47 minutes ago, avgwarhawk said:

I certainly don't need them where I'm going.

Gee, now I need to make sure my next old car has air conditioning.

[Mark Wetherbee]

With the current heat index, that place might just be a little cooler than you imagine…

[58L-Y8]

Another slow news day for the msn...

[avgwarhawk]

1 hour ago, Twisted Shifter said:

                                              👅   ...hope it won't be too hot to drive   

Can't be any hotter than it is now! 

[JV Puleo]

I find these predictions of doom both tiresome and idiotic. I don't give a damn if every "investor" looses his shirt. The fact is, old cars have virtually no practical value. The entire market is based, ultimately, on what a true enthusiast with disposable cash is willing to pay for something that has no real use aside from his own amusement. I feel as if the investors have squeezed many true enthusiasts out of the running on nearly everything except the most pedestrian examples or projects that that even the most optimistic (and ignorant) investor will run from.

 

That said, how does car collecting compare with other "hobbys ." Has  anyone ever realized a profit on their out of date tickets for past sporting events? My favorite is golf...something several members of my family seem addicted to. The costs can be astronomical with not a penny of it recoverable. My brother actually bought a condo near some famous golf course that he visits maybe two or three times a year...and took a bath when he tried to sell it.

 

Anyone who uses auction descriptions as a basis for investment deserves to loose his money...and this goes for a great many more items than cars. The fact that Haggerty seems to be using their position as an insurer to hype investment is enough to make me very reluctant to do business with them.

[TAKerry]

I saw MSN so ignored it at first, then someone mentioned Hagerty so I figured I would open the link. My first thought was correct. Just more msn nonsense using Hagerty information. Have the values dropped, I would say def on some models, but maybe some have gone up and I would imagine a lot have stayed stagnant. In regards to the mecum auction at Harrisburg currently going, I just watched a couple of hours from yesterday on catchup. Prices seem normal compared to what I would expect. One thing I did notice is that the older broncos have seemed to cool off from their peak a couple of years ago. Then again $150k for a first gen bronco wasnt a smart buy to begin with!

 

Yes, old cars are luxury's and no one needs one. Those that can afford will continue to buy what they like/want. I had a friend in the Kiwanis that owned a high end jewelry store. He made a comment one time that EVERYTHING he sold was completely unnecessary and he felt blessed that he could make a living that way. Same deal.

[TerryB]

Mecum at Harrisburg sold a 1977 Pontiac Trans Am with 18 miles on the odometer for over $400,000.  Definitely a sign that the market is weak😀.

[Mark Wetherbee]

Great tactic, let’s help scare off the investors and get the hobby back to the hands of the guys who love them… 

 

I’ve driven a 77 Trans Am and a Bronco - The Trans Am was fun at the time but it wasn’t as much fun as the Bronco… of course they were both $300 beaters back in the day.

 

 

[TerryB]

Funny how our impressions of some rather expensive cars today are based on our ownership years ago of cars that were not exactly stellar performers.  For me, I would not touch a 1973 Chevelle SS for any money after the experience I had with the one I bought new. On the other hand, I would enjoy, at reasonable money, another 1967 Chevrolet pickup truck like I had years ago, even though that truck was rough around the edges when I had it. It was still fun to own with its lack of frills that so many trucks have today. Just a nice simple way to get around and easy to repair.

[alsancle]

5 minutes ago, TerryB said:

Funny how our impressions of some rather expensive cars today are based on our ownership years ago of cars that were not exactly stellar performers.  For me, I would not touch a 1973 Chevelle SS for any money after the experience I had with the one I bought new. On the other hand, I would enjoy, at reasonable money, another 1967 Chevrolet pickup truck like I had years ago, even though that truck was rough around the edges when I had it. It was still fun to own with its lack of frills that so many trucks have today. Just a nice simple way to get around and easy to repair.

Don't ruin my dream.   I've had a 73 SS454 four speed on my list for years.

 

[TerryB]

Mine rusted away faster than anything I ever owned.  Get one that never lived in the northeast.

[Guest]

A car is worthless until it is sold.  If you have what you love then it's worthless because you don't sell what you love.  Insurance is best compared to life insurance where no amount of money replaces your loss.

[rocketraider]

3 hours ago, alsancle said:

 

 

😍😋

 

Happy to know I'm not the only one who appreciates the unappreciated GM Colonnades.

 

One of my high school friends still has the 73 SS454 he bought new in summer 1973. He bought and insured that car on grocery store bagboy money and has kept it near immaculate all these years, acquiring two more over time. All automatics though.

 

Doubtful we ever see Colonnades on any list of "investment" or "hot market" cars. Course a lot of misinformed people believe GM didn't build cars after 1972.

[alsancle]

36 minutes ago, rocketraider said:

😍😋

 

Happy to know I'm not the only one who appreciates the unappreciated GM Colonnades.

 

One of my high school friends still has the 73 SS454 he bought new in summer 1973. He bought and insured that car on grocery store bagboy money and has kept it near immaculate all these years, acquiring two more over time. All automatics though.

 

Doubtful we ever see Colonnades on any list of "investment" or "hot market" cars. Course a lot of misinformed people believe GM didn't build cars after 1972.

 

I like them because the 68-72 Chevelle is too common.   How many 73-74 454 Four Speed cars do you ever see?  I've probably  seen one in person in my life.

[Glen Andrews]

I attended the Raleigh (NC) Classic Auction in early June, not a big time auction but has been going on for many years. A lot of the cars are from dealer collections from the Raleigh area and other cities in the nearby area, and some from Southern Virginia, and there were some single car owners and such included in the auction. There might have been 250 cars in the three day auction, practically every car had a reserve set. Sitting with a friend watching this we found that many of the bids were getting to about 60-70% of the reserve, so many cars did not sell; seems like potential buyers are not quite ready to pay what sellers wanted. Okay, don't shoot the messenger, just an observation at this auction.

[Crusty Trucker]

3 hours ago, swab said:

A car is worthless until it is sold.  If you have what you love then it's worthless because you don't sell what you love. 

 

Have you ever tried to qualify for a bank loan by claiming your collateral was was a bunch of empty cartridges, a collection of deer antlers, a bag of golf clubs or a handful of score cards?

 

It might work better showing the registration and a value statement of your old car to the loan officer. It worked for me .🙂

 

Just saying...

 

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by Crusty Trucker (see edit history)

[edinmass]

Would somebody PLEASE  tell me when the market drops out on a DV 32 Stutz…….. I would like to buy a few of them for $.10 on the dollar.

[1912Staver]

Ed and his champagne tastes!

In my books the " best " Vertical 8 is a early Robin's body {series AA or BB }, boat tail speedster. Simple things just have a certain attraction . DV 32 engines are a delight , but the later body's seem too " fancy " to my eye.

[Avanti Bill]

You can not judge market by the car prices of the early cars at any auction and unless you are present to put the mark 1 eyeball on it you just don't what the condition is, they all look good under the lights.  Having said that really nice cars always bring the money.

[JV Puleo]

4 hours ago, edinmass said:

Would somebody PLEASE  tell me when the market drops out on a DV 32 Stutz…….. I would like to buy a few of them for $.10 on the dollar.

I feel the same about Silver Ghost RRs...and .10 on the dollar is about what I could afford.

[Buffalowed Bill]

When money gets tight the market for non-essential discretionary items, like collector cars, stagnates. It's easy to speculate as long as interest rates are low. People who have viewed vintage cars as an investment commodity seem to have put themselves behind the eight ball. Speculation becomes costly when someone get caught holding the bag.

 

We old timers are leaving the market daily. The Haggerty statistics cover the whole market not just the 60's and 70's cars, the fans for which tend to by younger and more active. For the young collector this is a great time reap the benefits of the slower market.

[Ed Luddy]

22 hours ago, TerryB said:

Mine rusted away faster than anything I ever owned.  Get one that never lived in the northeast.

I think my 1974 El Camino SS 454 may have rusted faster than yours. By 1978 it was on it's 2nd paint job and I drove it thru the Canadian winter that year.

 By spring it was breaking out again and had holes in floors.

[Pfeil]

18 hours ago, alsancle said:

 

I like them because the 68-72 Chevelle is too common.   How many 73-74 454 Four Speed cars do you ever see?  I've probably  seen one in person in my life.

Maybe you would like this 68 Pontiac engineering exercise.

[Pfeil]

16 hours ago, Avanti Bill said:

You can not judge market by the car prices of the early cars at any auction and unless you are present to put the mark 1 eyeball on it you just don't what the condition is, they all look good under the lights.  Having said that really nice cars always bring the money.

I'll add to that. People with limited disposable income, the bread-and-butter cars, the entry level cars are the first indicators of a downward trend. They are the Weathervane.

[TerryB]

25 minutes ago, Ed Luddy said:

I think my 1974 El Camino SS 454 may have rusted faster than yours. By 1978 it was on it's 2nd paint job and I drove it thru the Canadian winter that year.

 By spring it was breaking out again and had holes in floors.

After four years (1977) I had enough.  My loyalty to Chevrolet had been tested so I looked at other makes.  The 1977 Thunderbird looked good but was priced higher than I wanted to spend.  I even looked at AMC in the form of the AMX version offered that year.  In the end I went back with Chevrolet in the form of a 1977 Nova Rally Sport.  The Nova held up well and then it got traded in 1983 for a new Camaro Z28.

[rocketraider]

Just now, TerryB said:

After four years (1977) I had enough.  My loyalty to Chevrolet had been tested

Wasn't only Chevrolet. All the Colonnade-years A-body cars had the rust problem. Cheap steel combined with bad water drainage designs, no rustproofing, and salt killed a lot of those cars before their time.

 

Based on that one would think nice survivors would command a little more respect and value in the old car hobby. The 1973s are, after all, 50 years old now.

 

See my earlier observation about ignorants believing GM didn't build cars after 1972. There are some around here who honestly believe a 69 Camaro is the only car GM ever built. 

 

They may be right. People sure seem to go stupid over them and they're always on hot market lists.