Your Future, will you fit?

[SC38dls]

I haven't read the C&D article, nor have I look at any sales figures for any model, make or year of cars except my 38 State Cammander Studebaker. Most of all, I don't really care about them.  My only thought is could you both be correct? Tesla is #1 and MB outsells them, but neither of you paid attention to the details. One is talking about electric cars and the other is talking about GAS/DIESEL cars?  Just a thought from a guy about as old as PADGETT but not quite, I hope.   

Dave S 

Edited January 31, 2019 by SC38DLS (see edit history)

[joe_padavano]

3 minutes ago, SC38DLS said:

I haven't read the C&D article, . One is talking about electric cars and the other is talking about GAS/DIESEL cars? 

 

If you had read the article, you'd see that it was about LUXURY cars, with no mention of power source.

[Peter Gariepy]

4 hours ago, joe_padavano said:

Elon has shipped exactly NO Model 3s at $35K, and never will.  And while they may have done $21B in revenue last year, they LOST $1B doing it.  Also, most analysts are skeptical that Tesla will be able to beat 2018 performance this year, as their short-term production-increasing stunts are not sustainable. I've been in meetings with Elon for SpaceX.  Suffice to say that he's as much of a con artist with an inflated ego as another Twitter user that we know. As for "cult", I'd argue that "selling" half a million Model 3s before a running prototype even existed puts Tucker to shame as far as being a huckster.  And I've seen the C&D article. Who defined the low-end Model 3 as a "luxury car"? Also, as I pointed out above, Mercedes sells nearly as many cars a month as Tesla sold in all of 2018; GM sells about that many cars in a week; and neither lose money doing it. But hey, Tesla has a higher market cap... 🙄

 

Not wanting to be part of a cult is why I don't own any Apple products, either. 😉

 

• Facts remain:  156,000 Model 3s sold. $31b in revenue.  Yes $1b lost. People don't buy the cars because of a personality... they buy them because they are good cars.
• Con artist?  I disagree, but let's assume you are right.  Then he's in good company:  Henry Ford, William Durant, Howard Hughs, Bill Gates and Steve Jobs to name a few. 
• No running prototype?  You're a silly man. 
• C&D defined "Low End Luxury Car"
• Mercedes, GM and other manufactures have been around 100+ years.  Tesla has geared up in less than 10, and really 5.
• Yes, Tesla market cap is nuts
• As to calling Apple a cult. So It's fair to assume you have an Android phone (Google) and a Windows computers (Microsoft)?  Speaking of cults.

[Peter Gariepy]

We are distracted away from the original post:

 

Good or bad, every major car manufacturer in the world is look away from fossil fueled vehicles. They will be history in our lifetimes.

 

Just because we love our antique automobiles will not change that fact.

[TerryB]

The best selling post WWII car prior to Tesla model S was the Citi-Car which sold just under 4500 total units during the gas crisis years in the 1970s.  The cars were bought in reaction to long gas lines and rising prices.  To sell nearly 250,000 electric cars in one year when gas is relatively cheap and plentiful is a statement about shifting views about automobiles and their method of propulsion.  It really doesn’t matter who made the cars, it more matters they sold based on changing customer priorities and interests.  

 

Kind of of like the personal computer market, it’s not critical to know the first makers but their influence on the market and our acceptance of them into our lifestyle is what is noteworthy today.  It all goes back to the opening statement about what changes we will see in the future.  Whatever they are will be a statement of our acceptance to change in our daily lives.

[1912Staver]

Peter {and Terry} you are probably right, however I fear that the future you see will further divide the haves and the have nots. I just can't imagine the very tech intensive electric car ever being something that lower income users can afford. Either initially or as the vehicles age. I used to be middle class and had to tighten the belt a bit each year even with full time + employment and {except for dabbling in the car hobby} a very basic life style. Now that I have retired I doubt I am even middle class anymore although I might just make it.  But I could not have come close to the cost of any of the EV's even when I was still working . Are most of us going to be public transit users in the future ? I live in a rural/ suburban area of a city with very poor public transportation. Are people in my situation going to go back to bicycles ?

 

Greg in Canada

Edited January 31, 2019 by 1912Staver (see edit history)

[1937hd45]

Some people will rather walk than own an electric car. If changing a light bulb is the limit of your electrical understanding dumping over a years income into an electric car is doubtful. The would will never run out of cheap used gas & diesel vehicles in the next 25 years, if they do no big deal, I'll be dead. Bob 

Edited February 1, 2019 by 1937hd45 (see edit history)

[joe_padavano]

55 minutes ago, Peter Gariepy said:

As to calling Apple a cult. So It's fair to assume you have an Android phone (Google) and a Windows computers (Microsoft)?  Speaking of cults.

 

Neither is my first choice, but there aren't a lot of mainstream alternatives. I primarily work Gov't aerospace programs, and they require documents to be prepared and submitted in MS Office format. As a result, I'm stuck with that. Android phone because I don't want to have to purchase all new chargers and peripherals every time I get a new phone. And yes, I can still replace the battery.

[TerryB]

Greg, I am more in your income bracket than you realize.  I will never own an electric car, at best I might have an electric powered wheelchair as I’m approaching my 67th birthday and I still push my manual wheelchair (spinal cord injury six years ago in a mc vs auto encounter).  The changes in auto power systems will be a slow change.  Most autos are becoming an appliance, not an item of desire.  Blame traffic jams, pollution and the general lack of caring about how autos mechanically function in today’s world.  As long as it gets me there with minimal schedule interruptions becomes paramount to buyers.

 

I like and enjoy cars, motorcycles and most anything with an engine.  All around me are nice people who really don’t care about things like that until theirs doesn’t work.  Hoods are never opened on Saturday afternoons with shade tree mechanics becoming  a dying breed.  Still, those who do enjoy history will continue to be impressed by what came before them, be it cars motorcycles or computers. 

[Pfeil]

This is the vision of the auto manufacturer I retired from after 34 years of service. I'm sure that every auto manufacturer's vision is nearly the same as this one. The only problem for antique vehicles is fuel, parts, interest and the willingness to let antiques be on the road.

 

The future that XXXXXXXX envisions is the Zero-Emission society with a symbiosis of people and rich nature.
With EVs being an integral part of people's lifestyle, everyone will be enjoying the life with no air pollutions or noise problems.
Since vehicles, homes and infrastructure will be interlinked, there will be less traffic congestion thanks to the IT driving support feature, and the charging can be finished while shopping or watching movies because the charging stations will be available at so many places.
Today's impossible may become tomorrow's routine in the Zero-Emission society that XXXXXXXXXX envisions. That tomorrow is already within reach - before too long your EV might be charged while it runs on the EV-dedicated lanes, or you might be able to get into a shopping mall with driving EV thanks to Zero-Emission.
By offering electric vehicles in its attempt to build the Zero-Emission society, XXXXXXXXXX wishes to enrich people's life and protect the blue planet as clean as it is supposed to be for our next generations.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Pfeil (see edit history)

[Ronnie]

58 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:

Are people in my situation going to go back to bicycles ?

 

You can buy electric assist bicycles now if you have to go back to bikes.

[TerryB]

16 minutes ago, Ronnie said:

 

You can buy electric assist bicycles now if you have to go back to bikes.

I have a neighbor who has one for himself and one for his wife, they love them!  Goes all over the place with them.  Both bikes still have pedals too so at first glance they look like standard bicycles.

Edited January 31, 2019 by TerryB (see edit history)

[alsancle]

Elon Musk is a genius if only because he was the FIRST person in 120 years that figured out how to build an electric car that wasn't an embarrassment to be caught dead in. 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2019 by alsancle (see edit history)

[vermontboy]

I wonder how much the range of electric vehicles is cut in cold temps. We lived 25 miles south of Syracuse and saw over 25 days one year where the temperature never hit -0- degrees and two weeks where every night was 20 below or colder - two nights hit 40 below and one 36 below......

 

Also not sure how autonomous vehicles are going to navigate when the roads are covered 6 inches or better (drifts to 12 inches) and that's within an hour after they are plowed when the only markers along the road are phone poles on each side..... it will be interesting.

[Matt Harwood]

11 minutes ago, vermontboy said:

I wonder how much the range of electric vehicles is cut in cold temps. We lived 25 miles south of Syracuse and saw over 25 days one year where the temperature never hit -0- degrees and two weeks where every night was 20 below or colder - two nights hit 40 below and one 36 below......

 

1905: I wonder what the range of those "oto-mobiles" are? Gasoline? What the heck is that? I have to get it at some special store? That's nuts. I can just get on my horse and go as far as I want and I don't even have to worry about finding "gasoline." And grass and water are free! Why would I pay for transportation? Imagine running out of gas somewhere in the middle of nowhere? What idiots! Why should I try anything new when the horse works just fine for all our needs? I doubt the world will ever change, why should I bother? 

 

Yeah, I think I'm just going to stick with my horse. No way those idiots and their strange newfangled oto-mobiles will ever know more than I.

[TerryB]

For those of us who have traveled the world by airplane and think nothing of that feat, remember the first flight only lasted less tha a minute.  It’s called progress!

[edinmass]

I was at a supercharger spot today on RT 95 in South Carolina, 12 chargers, and no cars for over an hour.......just saying.

 

I think there is and will be lots of room for a electric car........in twenty five years they will probably be 75 percent of the market. That still leaves 25 percent for HC’s.

[Matt Harwood]

And the best news regarding the widespread adoption of electric cars is... more gas for our old cars!

 

Plus, as a side benefit, it will be CHEAP!

What's the downside?

[TerryB]

Ok, I really do have an electric car, in fact two of them.

 

[Brooklyn Beer]

I'm rooting for some climate change and sail cars

[Pfeil]

9 minutes ago, Matt Harwood said:

And the best news regarding the widespread adoption of electric cars is... more gas for our old cars!

 

Plus, as a side benefit, it will be CHEAP!

What's the downside?

The down side is fewer gasoline cars after the EV's have taken the market over. Less demand for gasoline equals higher gas prices. Just look at the price of paint thinner' lighter fluid' kerosene, regular 87octaine ethanol free gas compared to 87 10% ethanol. 

    

[Matt Harwood]

1 minute ago, Pfeil said:

The down side is fewer gasoline cars after the EV's have taken the market over. Less demand for gasoline equals higher gas prices. Just look at the price of paint thinner' lighter fluid' kerosene, regular 87octaine ethanol free gas compared to 87 10% ethanol. 

    

 

Um, no. That's not how supply and demand works. In fact, that's the exact opposite of how it works. Scarcity drives up prices as buyers compete to control finite resources. A surplus supply, or reduced demand for any given item, deflates prices as sellers lower prices to entice buyers to purchase goods that are in excess supply. It has been that way since the first guy had something that two other guys wanted.

 

Example: A lot fewer people want Model Ts today than in the 1960s. By your theory, since fewer people want them prices should be going up. Obviously that is not the case. The market is not flooded with $100,000 Model Ts that nobody wants.

[Pfeil]

12 minutes ago, Matt Harwood said:

 

Um, no. That's not how supply and demand works. In fact, that's the exact opposite of how it works. Scarcity drives up prices as buyers compete to control finite resources. A surplus supply, or reduced demand for any given item, deflates prices as sellers lower prices to entice buyers to purchase goods that are in excess supply. It has been that way since the first guy had something that two other guys wanted.

 

Example: A lot fewer people want Model Ts today than in the 1960s. By your theory, since fewer people want them prices should be going up. Obviously that is not the case. The market is not flooded with $100,000 Model Ts that nobody wants.

When refiners cut down production of gas because of so few cars using it because of EV's the price will rise because they will not be selling in the volume they once had. 

[MCHinson]

The problem that I have with this entire discussion is that it is based on someone's idea of what the future holds. The person(s) who authored the original statement are anonymous. I would guess that is because they would prefer not to be embarassed when a lot of their "facts' turn out to be wrong. I am convinced that some of what they have predicted is fairly correct. Much of it is just as likely to be wrong. Whenever a projected version of the future is presented in as the only potential future in a religious like manner, I tend to be skeptical.

 

Change is always happening. Predictions are always being made. Sometimes they are close, sometimes they are really good, and sometimes the predictions are way off base. There are such regional differences between urban, suburban, and rural areas that any one cookie cutter prediction of "the future" is unlikely to be universally correct. There are also differences due to weather differences. In my area, we have to be prepared for Hurricanes. We almost never have to worry about snow. There are some places that have Tornadoes as a major regular concern. I have seen significant tornadoes within 100 miles of my location only twice in my life. We have plenty of local stations with ethanol free fuel. We have very few electric car charging stations locally. I am sure that electric cars will continue to become more common but it will be a long time before they are a significant presence in my area. 

 

I am not going to spend any time worrying about these predictions. The weather is projected to be Sunny and almost 60 tomorrow. Saturday, it is projected to be in the 60's and Sunny. I can live with those projections. I will be smiling when i drive my 1937 Buick Century to our local Cars and Coffe on Saturday. The weather will be great, the crowds will be large, including a lot of the younger generation, so I plan to just continue enjoying the hobby!  

[Pfeil]

18 minutes ago, MCHinson said:

The problem that I have with this entire discussion is that it is based on someone's idea of what the future holds. The person(s) who authored the original statement are anonymous. I would guess that is because they would prefer not to be embarassed when a lot of their "facts' turn out to be wrong. I am convinced that some of what they have predicted is fairly correct. Much of it is just as likely to be wrong. Whenever a projected version of the future is presented in as the only potential future in a religious like manner, I tend to be skeptical.

 

Change is always happening. Predictions are always being made. Sometimes they are close, sometimes they are really good, and sometimes the predictions are way off base. There are such regional differences between urban, suburban, and rural areas that any one cookie cutter prediction of "the future" is unlikely to be universally correct. There are also differences due to weather differences. In my area, we have to be prepared for Hurricanes. We almost never have to worry about snow. There are some places that have Tornadoes as a major regular concern. I have seen significant tornadoes within 100 miles of my location only twice in my life. We have plenty of local stations with ethanol free fuel. We have very few electric car charging stations locally. I am sure that electric cars will continue to become more common but it will be a long time before they are a significant presence in my area. 

 

I am not going to spend any time worrying about these predictions. The weather is projected to be Sunny and almost 60 tomorrow. Saturday, it is projected to be in the 60's and Sunny. I can live with those projections. I will be smiling when i drive my 1937 Buick Century to our local Cars and Coffe on Saturday. The weather will be great, the crowds will be large, including a lot of the younger generation, so I plan to just continue enjoying the hobby!  

EV's are where the automotive industry is going. It's a huge part of their product planning and billions are being spent. With the exception of a few years out the internal combustion final planning is being done. We as collectors must have assurance that the resources we need will still be in adequate supply, that is fuel, oil, parts, and permission to run on the roads. If you don't worry, if you don't become the squeaky wheel to let people know your position the hobby will go away. Also there are plenty of squeaky wheels out there to get these cars off the HWY too. 

[1937hd45]

1 hour ago, TerryB said:

For those of us who have traveled the world by airplane and think nothing of that feat, remember the first flight only lasted less tha a minute.  It’s called progress!

Yes, It is a shame Gustave Whitehead didn't have a photographer back in 1901 to prove it, something the Wright brothers thought of in 1903. Bob 

[MCHinson]

Your original post claims:

 

 11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.   
 Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.  

 

Even though the following article was written by someone who hopes that would be true, even they clearly show that your original post is wrong.

 

https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/10/where-americas-charge-towards-electric-vehicles-stands-today/572857/

[Doug Novak]

Harley Davidson is about to start marketing their new Electric Motor Cycle costing $30,000.

 

If all the cars go electric I'm going to put a Disc Recording of a big block Chevy with Headers and no mufflers that I can listen to while driving. 

 

Robots and Computers will be the end of the Human Race.

 

If these changes evolve a Third World Country with launch a Nuclear Arial Bomb attack over us and the IMF wave from the explosion will kill all the Electronics every where.

I might have to replace the Pertronics in my Distributors and put the Points back in to give everybody a ride in my old cars. 

 

 

[Pfeil]

7 minutes ago, Doug Novak said:

Harley Davidson is about to start marketing their new Electric Motor Cycle costing $30,000.

 

If all the cars go electric I'm going to put a Disc Recording of a big block Chevy with Headers and no mufflers that I can listen to while driving. 

 

Robots and Computers will be the end of the Human Race.

 

If these changes evolve a Third World Country with launch a Nuclear Arial Bomb attack over us and the IMF wave from the explosion will kill all the Electronics every where.

I might have to replace the Pertronics in my Distributors and put the Points back in to give everybody a ride in my old cars. 

 

 

Just keep the points and condenser in the glove box. I can't tell you how many drivers find themselves stranded. I said to a friend who's 64, 409 Impala SS went dead on the HYW " What did you do with the Pertronic's ?" He said he had by chance saved the points and condenser and he threw the pertronic's as far as he could from the side of the road.

[1912Staver]

Why auto sales have declined is still a bit of a mystery to me. Trucks , S.U.V.'s and those things in between strike me as a very expensive transportation choice. I had a reasonably long commute until I retired and would have found the transport monthly cost with anything other than a small gas sipper a real hardship. How has California made trucks more popular ?  

P.S.  I have a older Ford Pick up that I put temp. insurance on when I need to haul something large or use my tandem car trailer.  But I can't imagine using it as a daily driver.

 

Greg

Edited February 1, 2019 by 1912Staver (see edit history)

[cahartley]

13 hours ago, Pfeil said:

Got to get that Semi sentiment out of peoples head. Long haul should be done by Rail. It's been proven over and over again that it is much cheaper.

 

Except ALL long haul is NOT done by rail.

There are hundreds of thousands of semis on the road every day.

[Bush Mechanic]

4 hours ago, 1937hd45 said:

Yes, It is a shame Gustave Whitehead didn't have a photographer back in 1901 to prove it, something the Wright brothers thought of in 1903. Bob 

Bob, wasn't Gustave's flight written up in the local newspaper? It seems the Wright brothers heard the news, and visited his workshop, to find out how it was done. They were obviously better at promoting themselves. Mr. Musk would understand that aspect of progress..

[TerryB]

Remember it was George Eastman that gave us the ability to take simple photos with the most basic of cameras.  His vision for photography was similar to Henry Ford’s version of what an automobile for the general public should look like.

[Pfeil]

8 hours ago, cahartley said:

 

Except ALL long haul is NOT done by rail.

There are hundreds of thousands of semis on the road every day.

We can change that quickly.

[Pfeil]

9 hours ago, Dave Fields said:

Government is forcing EVs on people. The subsidized market is very very limited. EVs are handouts for the rich and famous; those who never pay their fair share. There is almost no demand for automobiles in the USA because of government meddling. People are buying trucks and anything that legally classifies as a truck because of California's meddling in the auto industry. Remember, I teach this stuff at the graduate level. Hey, Peter, come to El Paso and debate me. 

The latest federal income tax data reported by the IRS shows that the top 1 percent of income earners pay 39.5 percent of all federal income taxes, nearly twice the 20.6 percent share of national income they earn. The entire bottom 50 percent of all taxpayers pay 2.7 percent of federal income taxes, which is only a small fraction (about one fourth) of their share of national income.

The top 1 percent, indeed, pay a much bigger share of federal income taxes than the entire bottom 90 percent of income earners, who pay only 29.1 percent of federal income taxes, while earning 53 percent of national income. That means as well that the top 1 percent pay a bigger share of income taxes than the entire middle class combined, defined as the middle 20 percent of income earners

[John348]

9 hours ago, Dave Fields said:

Government is forcing EVs on people. The subsidized market is very very limited. EVs are handouts for the rich and famous; those who never pay their fair share. There is almost no demand for automobiles in the USA because of government meddling. People are buying trucks and anything that legally classifies as a truck because of California's meddling in the auto industry. Remember, I teach this stuff at the graduate level. Hey, Peter, come to El Paso and debate me. 

 

I bought a Yukon XL around 2002 (I think, long gone now) I had gotten a $2,000 tax break from NYS because it was E-85 as well as regular gasoline. I never saw a station selling E-85 the entire time I owned it.

 

True, EV's and self driving vehicles are a toy for the rich, but the big picture is for commercial use, where the driver and regulations on the hours a driver can drive are a huge cost factor. I do know for a fact that it is real close to becoming a reality. The buying power generation now (as pointed out earlier in a previous post) could care less about a car, it is just another appliance, a refrigerator with wheels, many lease so they are not concerned with problems after 3 years or 36,000 miles. If we look at the new Cadillac TV commercials, they are all marketed to 30 something year old adults. My father-in law never accepted an automatic transmission, and did not believe the salesman when he said they did not offer it anymore. I bought a new truck a few months ago because I heard that they are phasing out CD players. 

 

The technology is there for those who want to embrace it, I wonder how many people on this site still use a flip phone? 

[JV Puleo]

4 minutes ago, John348 said:

 

 I wonder how many people on this site still use a flip phone? 

 

 

I do - and I'm not at all embarrassed by it. I do not like talking on the telephone...I have no one to send a text message to, I own several cameras, including a VERY good one and 3 computers so I have no reason to need to access the internet via a telephone. The cost is, to my mind, prohibitive especially as they are too big and clumsy to be carried around in the shop without being broken in a matter of days.

[MCHinson]

11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.   
 Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.  

 

I am amazed at just how wrong this statement is. I suggest you read this link if you want to learn a bit about how long it will take for a substantial change to electric vehcles:  https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/reports/electric-vehicles.html

[John348]

27 minutes ago, JV Puleo said:

 

I do - and I'm not at all embarrassed by it. I do not like talking on the telephone...I have no one to send a text message to, I own several cameras, including a VERY good one and 3 computers so I have no reason to need to access the internet via a telephone. The cost is, to my mind, prohibitive especially as they are too big and clumsy to be carried around in the shop without being broken in a matter of days.

 

I am sorry I did not make that point to embarrass anyone, I too never use my phone for the internet. My point was that everyone will embrace the technology they feel comfortable with. I don't think any of us here, feel or see the need to buy a refrigerator to send us a picture of it's contents to know if I need milk or something else, on the other side it would be safe to say that there are just as many younger then us who think it is great!.

 

Edited February 1, 2019 by John348 (see edit history)

[Ronnie]

 

9 hours ago, cahartley said:

Except ALL long haul is NOT done by rail.

There are hundreds of thousands of semis on the road every day.

For me you just explained why the Railroads should be hauling more long haul loads. Trucks have taken over the interstate highways. The average semi truck can haul about 20-25 tons of cargo. Total truck weight can be no more than 40 tons.  One rail car can haul up to 100 tons. In my area, Tennessee, the average freight train is about 100 cars. That means that one train could take 400 semi trucks off the highways to haul the same amount of cargo across country relieving congestion on our highway systems.