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Your Future, will you fit?


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I found out something that had my head spinning. For the last eighty years hydroelectric power has been a mainstay of the power needs in the West. One of the leaders in this has been the Bonneville power grid, and the dams which provided the power. The system has provided most of the West with reasonably priced electricity, while irrigating thousands of acres of farmland.

 

California with a seemingly insatiable demand for power has depended on BP. Suddenly, and seemingly overnight, the demand has slowed to a trickle. The reason is that the SW has developed it own sources of renewable energy (solar and wind). Just shows how quickly technology can change the playing field. To my mind it must be a good thing, but I'll leave it the people smarter the I, to sort things out.   

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5 hours ago, alsancle said:

We are lucky that electricity grows on trees so we won't need the oil or coal fired plants that are currently powering all those Prius's.

 

Nearly all Prii (or Prius') sold are/were hybrid, only a small number have been "plug-in hybrids". So they fill up at the same gasoline pump as any other "conventional car", they just use less fuel to go the same distance. In the 201,000 miles my 2004 Prius traveled before it was totaled I averaged 44.5 MPG. Just think of a Prius as a high capacity econo-car and that every Prius you see on the road is saving gasoline so it can be used in a SUV or pickup truck. .:)

 

Rewriting your statement to read Telsas would make more sense as they are full EVs.

 

I don't see a break out, but the local electrical company where I am claims 40% of the supply in 2018 was from renewable sources. And I am pretty sure that there is zero or close to zero coal in that mix (I think that only LA's DWP brings in power from out of state coal burning electrical plants). Where I used to live the power company listed the mix each year. Renewable and "non-carbon" sources (nuclear and large scale hydro don't count as "renewable" here) were, if I recall correctly, something like 80% of the mix. Basically, no coal, almost no oil and about 20% natural gas for them. So, no "we won't need the oil or coal fired plants" because they are not currently powering anything in my area anyway.

 

I don't have a Telsa or other pure EV car, but I see that my electrical company offers a "time of use" plan for EV car owners with a "super off peak" price from midnight to 6 AM of $0.09/kWh. If I divide out the reported miles/kWh I see on the web for "real life" Tesla owners, that seems to work out to between $0.03 and $0.04 per mile. Local 87 octane gas is about $3.00 according to gas buddy. Assuming 40 MPG for a equivalent gas powered sedan at the higher end of the efficiency scale, that would be between $0.07 and $0.08 per mile. So, for "fuel" the Tesla will cost you about half as much per mile. The sticker price for a Tesla is pretty high but that is driven by battery costs which are dropping pretty rapidly and lack of competition which is growing, so it seems reasonable that the purchase price of pure EV cars will be competitive with gasoline cars in the reasonably near future.

 

I suspect the average "non-car" person looking to buy a car will see a silent EV vehicle that costs half as much to run per mile and needs less service than a gasoline car as a good purchase.

 

I suspect the days of the internal combustion powered car are numbered. But I could be wrong, I made my 2004 Prius purchase assuming we'd be consistently paying over $5/gal for gas by 2010 and that didn't happen. Instead I just got a car what happened to be reliable, durable and cheap to own.

 

 

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On ‎1‎/‎26‎/‎2019 at 9:52 PM, edinmass said:

I’m tired of being told what to worry about.......global warming, ice cap melting, sea level rising, socialism coming to America.........I have shut off the tv, and stopped listening to both sides lying to my face like I’m some kind of idiot. The sun will come up tomorrow, and the day after, and so on......I may not be here to see it, but I am quite sure it will. I chose to worry about nothing.........I now just don’t give a s##t about anything...........an life has never been better. Be kind to your family, friends, and fellow man..........life is short, go drive your car. 

That's the way I look at things. If the self anointed experts and professionally offended could only find their own iceberg. Bob 

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Didn't Nostradamus state clearly that fossil fuels would be outdated once electricity was discovered to replace water power which was sure to end oxen on turnstyles but not before slave labor was fully spent building nuclear plants for the pharaohs? I could be wrong...

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as long as people are interested in cars, motorcycles and the like, they will always be around. There are people who waste thousands and thousands of dollars on that old obsolete horse. Why? I don’t know, but it’s not because it’s practical. Stop bringing me down man. Isn’t time to change your oil?!

Edited by Grizz (see edit history)
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 I posted the topic on another forum and one of the respondents reacted by saying this to someone who suggested if the auto industry goes all electric how will you fit in?

 

 


  I'm Not going to change I DON"T ROLL THAT WAY? In regards to changing over to whatever the auto industry tries to give to us, or the government tries to run down our throats.

I said;
I don't either just ask my close friends or my wife.

I'm mad as hell that I can't find replacement parts for my two 7" reel to reel tape machines and having zillions of hours on tapes I'll never get to play. I'm mad as hell I can't buy new LP albums for my 1229 and my 721 Dual turntables.
I'm mad as hell I can't find a replacement for my Sony play/record cassette tape machine and countless tapes I can't listen to.
And now my CD's are going to suffer the same fate!

I'm mad as hell I can't easily buy and process 35mm film for my Olympus OM1 and OM10 that I spent hundreds on. AND those telephoto and wide angle lens that I paid hundreds for WON'T interface with a new digital camera.


I'm mad as hell I can't get lacquer paint for my cars so I can shoot without a booth.

I'm mad as hell I can't get R12 for my cars that were designed for R12!

I'm mad as hell I can't get leaded fuel for five of my antique cars that were designed for it.

I'm mad as hell I can't get oil base paint for my house!


Those are just a few things off the top of my head.


Whether you like it or not you ARE conforming. Drip, Drip, Drip

Edited by Pfeil (see edit history)
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On 1/26/2019 at 8:06 PM, SC38DLS said:

TerryB my mainframe that used $4 grand a month to run and cool was going to be the best system we ever bought. Now my business is being run better, faster and easier on a laptop!  How could that happen  in three years after we installed it?  

i  

Quote

 I know guys living the RV life and running their businesses on smart phones from wherever they are

.

 

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1 hour ago, SC38DLS said:

"predict all the gloom you want."

 

Who's predicting gloom?

This is simply a discussion of change.

Change is not a bad thing.  Change is inevitable.

You know, like...

  • hydraulic brakes
  • air conditioning
  • electronic ignition
  • fuel injection
  • unleaded fuel
  • air bags
  • Something other than round headlights :)
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  • Or how about the fangled way to buy and sell car and parts (Ebay)?
  • or instant access to virtually the entirety of human knowledge (Google)?
  • Or.. ways to communicate with 1000s and 1000s of antique car enthusiasts to discuss our favorite topic? (forums.aaca.org)

 

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On ‎1‎/‎26‎/‎2019 at 5:52 PM, joe_padavano said:

 

I'm pretty sure that if you count every single link and pin in a roller timing chain, every single needle bearing in the hydraulic roller lifters, etc, you'd probably get close.

 

It all depends on how one defines the term "part" as related to engine "parts".  Does one go to the automotive parts store to obtain a roller timing chain "part"  of a "gasoline engine" or does one order timing chain bits such as links, pins and (don't forget) the rollers themselves?  How does one define the term "gasoline engine"?  For the sake of discussion, I would consider the classic small block Chevy devoid of accessories such as alternators, air conditioning compressors, power steering pumps etc., but to include the starter, to be typical of an automotive "gasoline engine".  I'm sure that other "gasoline engines will have fewer or more parts depending on size, vintage and application, but I'm a simple man trying to simplify what could become an overly-complicated or ponderous point.  For example, let's not include the Pratt & Whitney R-4360, 28 cylinder radial aircraft engine in our discussion.  Anyway, I digress.  Looking at a typical roller timing chain for a V-8, it appears to have fewer than 250 individual bits, counting links, pins and rollers.  Hydraulic roller lifters, in a mated pair per cylinder would have around 25 bits, or 200 bits per V-8 engine.  Bearing in mind all of that and counting all of the bits per "part", I think one would be hard pressed to find more than 1,000 - 2,000 bits ("parts") in a "gasoline engine".

 

Cheers,

Grog

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“I’m tired of being told what to worry about.......global warming, ice cap melting, sea level rising, socialism coming to America......

According to a new House Member, in twelve years we will all be dead from climate change

I suspect the days of the internal combustion powered car are numbered”

 

Just a few of the comments from this interesting conversation. Peter, I think these may qualify as gloom.  That’s ok, I was just saying I’ll ignore the doom sayers and enjoy my old car for as long as possible. I’m not sticking my head in the sand I’m just choosing to enjoy something before it’s all gone. 

Dave S 

Edited by SC38DLS (see edit history)
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1 hour ago, Ronnie said:

Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!

I know, I know , I just hope my cars don't become part of that list;

 

 

 

I'm mad as hell that I can't find replacement parts for my two 7" reel to reel tape machines and having zillions of hours on tapes I'll never get to play. I'm mad as hell I can't buy new LP albums for my 1229 and my 721 Dual turntables.
I'm mad as hell I can't find a replacement for my Sony play/record cassette tape machine and countless tapes I can't listen to.
And now my CD's are going to suffer the same fate!

I'm mad as hell I can't easily buy and process 35mm film for my Olympus OM1 and OM10 that I spent hundreds on. AND those telephoto and wide angle lens that I paid hundreds for WON'T interface with a new digital camera.


I'm mad as hell I can't get lacquer paint for my cars so I can shoot without a booth.

I'm mad as hell I can't get R12 for my cars that were designed for R12!

I'm mad as hell I can't get leaded fuel for five of my antique cars that were designed for it.

I'm mad as hell I can't get oil base paint for my house! 

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Peter, change is indeed inevitable. But many changes do have the potential to be bad things.  The electronic interconnection of nearly everything in our lives {except perhaps our old cars} definitely is a Pandora's box.  It places the ability to deeply and subtly influence the world in the hands of anyone who has the resources to exploit the technology. We unwillingly will be subject to the behind the scenes manipulation of others regardless of their motive. It might take the form of how marketers pitch their products to us. And it might ultimately take the form of something we don't even yet imagine .

 

Greg in Canada

Edited by 1912Staver (see edit history)
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All the chatter about eliminating gas and diesel engines is just that as far as I'm concerned.

Only the .5% would be able to afford the billions of tons of freight that are hauled by rail and truck though locomotives are technically electric.

It'll be a long LONG time until an electric semi is feasible if ever.

Then there are the costs which few can afford assuming those who can are even interested.

In rural areas, such as mine, purely electric vehicles are a bad joke.

Even so I still see a fair number of hybrids around.

Will declining use of gasoline lead to ever cheaper gas?

 

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At the turn of the 20th century people in the know told the Wright Brothers man would never be able to fly in a powered device like an airplane. By 1969 man had set foot on the moon.  If you would have asked someone in 1920 if it was possible to reach the moon maybe 1 in one million would say yes and that person would have been considered a fool, not a visionary. I spent my adult working life in manufacturing technology seeing what was possible when visionary people put their minds to solving problems.  Not everything was a success but most were.  This entire discussion started with some visions of what the future might look like.  Some points will be true and others will be miles off base.  For me, I’m anxious to see who is right.

Edited by TerryB (see edit history)
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Yes, some change is going to happen no matter what we want, wish for or try to cope with. My hope is that we still have in print ON PAPER books and magazines , there is a lot of joy, at least for me to sit and hold and read a magazine and the same for a hard cover book.  Hopefully the subject is old cars!  ( or anything that Arthur Conan Doyle wrote) Staring at a screen all the time is,  well, tedious sometimes at best. Things I would just give up hope on if they changed drastically in the future are: the great AACA Hershey meet canceled because all the sales would be done "on line" , a "period item" being defined as something made last week, and the lack of exchange of information in person and a warm handshake at that end of that exchange because the same can be accomplished with a symbol on the computer.

And, yes I take extreme pleasure driving an old car with running boards during the day as well as at night with the head lamps on, using hand signals , which 90% of the drivers have no clue as to what I am doing that for.  We have a lot of dinosaurs reading this right now and as you can well imagine it is being typed ( and not on a manual typewriter that I prefer) by a dinosaur as well.

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For a good perspective on predictions of this type read Looking Backward by Edward Bellamy. It was published in 1887 and describes the world of the year 2000. Bellamy's book was so popular that it inspired "Bellamy Clubs" and a political party, the "Bellamy Nationalists" to bring about his vision of the future. It is a comment on the value of such predictions that virtually nothing he predicted came about and I'll bet that 98% of the people reading this forum have never heard of him.

 

Oh.. and we should remember that the printed book is the most efficient means of storing knowledge ever invented. It is practically indestructible and properly stored will last for centuries. I have many that are 200 and 300 years old and no, YOU CANNOT find them "online" anywhere. They require nothing except the ability to read in order to be useful. I wonder how many 300-year-old CD or pen drives will be in use in 2300.

Edited by JV Puleo (see edit history)
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14 hours ago, zipdang said:

Didn't Nostradamus state clearly that fossil fuels would be outdated once electricity was discovered

 

Come on, he couldn't have believed all the oil came from squashed dinosaurs. I'm pretty sure he wrote by a whale oil light at night.

 

Even I still dabble in experiments with the Odic force. It may have been overshadowed by the crass commercialism of Edison, but it is still a viable alternative.

 

AND, having personal and intimate experience with the Higgs Boson in the early 1990's, all this stuff has just been my entertainment over the past few decades. I just enjoy the manifestations of energy and matter as they come along.

 

As of 15 minutes ago I have a full tank of gasoline in my truck and at noon I plan to have lunch at a China Buffet. Gloom and boom; looks rosy to me.

Bernie

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Electric cars for everybody simply asks the question - are there enough natural resources to sustain such a thing.  Currently, no.  Lithium supplies, energy grid output and other factors will be a problem.  As it usually does, civilization will solve the problems in unexpected and sometimes disturbing ways.  Travel bans, edicts making people work out of their homes, restricting households to a finite number of jobs - many such unpleasant things may be coming down the road (or whatever travel means may be in effect at the time.)  I'll be long gone and won't have to worry about it.  When I graduated college the big thing was flying cars and colonies on Mars and the Moon by the year 2000.  Never happened.  Nobody saw the coming of portable computers, social media, cell phones, flat screen TVs and the changes in social attitudes.  How many science-fiction films or books predicted same-sex marriages, universal abortions and all the other social mores we take for granted these days?  Every generation comes up with their own doomsday scenario.  They rarely get much of it right.  My grandfather always told me he was amazed that he saw Haley's Comet, the Model T, and man land on the moon in his lifetime.  When he was born, there were no cars on the roads, when he died, he had two nice Pontiacs in his garage.  Things change and so do we.

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i understand all this talk about the world getting off oil . But someone forgot to tell the Oil Companies . Here is a 3 Billion dollar ship 1,300 feet long and 400 feet wide designed to lay oil pipe from Russia to Europe .

I understand they are laying oil pipe everywhere in the seas over there .

 

Also do you not need the oil to make the plastic for all the solar panels , etc ?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pioneering_Spirit_(ship)

Edited by Mark Gregory (see edit history)
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1 hour ago, Peter Gariepy said:

"It'll be a long LONG time until an electric semi is feasible if ever."

 

Nope - already here:

 

The fact that Tesla may have an electric semi built does NOT mean that it is feasible, practical, or profitable.

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32 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:

The price today of gas down the street from me works out to about $3.90 in U.S. equivalent price and U.S. gallons. Here in Canada we pay quite a bit for gas. Not as bad as Europe or the U.K. but still a hefty bite.

 

Greg

 

And I paid $1.99 9/10 a gallon in Albuquerque last week. The difference isn't the cost of the oil, it's the self-imposed taxes on top of the cost of the oil.

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My daughter teachers at a major university out east and of all things she teaches communications. The students don’t want to leave their dorms for class or to get food. So there are hundreds of these little robots running all over campus delivering food to generation Z college students!  

The funny part is when they run into a crowd of people they try to keep going by making a left and right a few times and finally just stop until the path is clear. 

 

 

4188F875-D4AC-4D9F-8F98-BCCA9FFE7B58.jpeg

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2 hours ago, Peter Gariepy said:

"It'll be a long LONG time until an electric semi is feasible if ever."

 

Nope - already here:

 

 

 

 

 

They still have a lot of work to do on the exhaust systems for electric cars and trucks. Here is what the exhaust systems currently looks like.

 

kingston_steam_plant 1-19-16_2.jpg

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10 minutes ago, SC38DLS said:

My daughter teachers at a major university out east and of all things she teaches communications. The students don’t want to leave their dorms for class or to get food. So there are hundreds of these little robots running all over campus delivering food to generation Z college students! 

 

Apparently Americans aren't obese enough, so we have to eliminate all motion.  Kind of reminds me of Zanger and Evans.

 

And for those who don't get reference, the song was In the Year 2525.

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image.png.26324e289ad8ca7a6a8f1fc52fb04304.png

 

This is a typical environmental activist picture of pollution. Most Google searches and nearly any newspaper or magazine article will carry a similar one. Those are two clouds of water vapor coming from a large plant operating at light load. Certain types of boilers require a minimum steaming load to protect the tubes. To meet that minimum and maintain safe operation steam is vented to the atmosphere. The uniformed environmentalist will hyperventilate watching this and exhale a lot of CO2.

See the low angle of the sun in this picture. It is an early morning shot prior to the major daily load coming on, probably about 6 AM. Or the plant is one of many US plants that have reduced production but maintained high capacity. I have also seen zealous energy managers reduce loads below the boiler minimums and lose their efforts through venting of steam.

Early morning shots of cooling towers are another favorite of the enviro-journalists, quite dramatic, But they are just examples of dramatization that sensationalize what they don't understand and damage their credibility. Kind of like the store about the boy who cried "Water!".

Bernie

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I fear if the global or US economy depended on me, and people like me, to sustained growth, it would soon falter. I am one of those outliers who seldom buys anything new. Sure I buy disposable stuff like gas and food, but my durable items come from the secondary market, when on the rear occasion that I buy any. I find it rewarding to be able to utilize what many, in our throw away society, would dispose of. I'm fortunate that I like to utilize old things. On every level from style, cost, recycling by using, to saving natural resources, it's a win. I also take pride in being able to utilize obsolete technologies without any undue hardships. 

 

 I drive twenty five year old cars, recline in antique furniture, and believe that remodeling for the sake of styling is an expensive trap. I still get much of my news from the newspaper and I don't own a smart phone. Car shopping for me is searching for that special old car, and then driving it. Would I like to be driving a Tesla, hell yes, and if I live long enough maybe I'll be able to afford a used one, but until then I'm content.

 

Edited by Buffalowed Bill (see edit history)
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3 hours ago, 1937hd45 said:

If gas & diesel vehicles will be gone in ten years and the companies that produce the fuels will be out of business in ten years, why are the selling fuels so cheaply now? 

 

Bob

When you have a surplus of gas and demand is high and is met the price goes down.

When you have a shortage of gas  and demand is high the price goes up.

when you have a low production of gas because demand has fallen off you have high prices. This is what will happen when the VE's take over. Look at the cost of paint thinner, turpentine, cleaning solvent, diesel. It takes less in the refining process, but the demand is not that of gasoline so the price is higher. 

Edited by Pfeil (see edit history)
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1 hour ago, 60FlatTop said:

This is a typical environmental activist picture of pollution. Most Google searches and nearly any newspaper or magazine article will carry a similar one. Those are two clouds of water vapor coming from a large plant operating at light load. Certain types of boilers require a minimum steaming load to protect the tubes. To meet that minimum and maintain safe operation steam is vented to the atmosphere. The uniformed environmentalist will hyperventilate watching this and exhale a lot of CO2.

 

You are correct. The white "smoke" is water vapor.  The emissions coming out of those stacks that can kill you are odorless and colorless.  The fact remains that unless the electricity in those trucks and cars comes from nuclear, solar, or hydro, they STILL create emissions. The losses in the transmission lines don't exactly help the equation, either. Yes, it is easier to clean up the emissions from a fixed power plant than from millions of mobile emission sources.  Just don't believe it's zero either.

 

Where's that Ford Nucleon when you need it?

 

b5c95deecac8fadcdae8cb92402cff76

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