So Tesla is tanking... your thoughts?

[Buffalowed Bill]

I love the car, all of it, the concept, the look the performance. It may be an expensive car, but not at exotic car prices.  This is one of the most special new car to be put into production in the last fifty years. I'm amazed at the vitriol from people that profess to be real car people. But then who am I but one of those "left cost nit-wits."

 

I have been sitting here wondering if real car people were as negative in 1938, when Labatt Cord's empire was crumbling, or how about the magnificent Pierce Arrow? I think few on this forum today can look at what was, without at least a tinge of sadness at their passing. It may sound a bit trite, but we often don't know what we have until it's gone. 

[1937hd45]

1 hour ago, Buffalowed Bill said:

I love the car, all of it, the concept, the look the performance. It may be an expensive car, but not at exotic car prices.  This is one of the most special new car to be put into production in the last fifty years. I'm amazed at the vitriol from people that profess to be real car people. But then who am I but one of those "left cost nit-wits."

 

I have been sitting here wondering if real car people were as negative in 1938, when Labatt Cord's empire was crumbling, or how about the magnificent Pierce Arrow? I think few on this forum today can look at what was, without at least a tinge of sadness at their passing. It may sound a bit trite, but we often don't know what we have until it's gone. 

If you do own one maybe you can answer the question I posted earlier. If I can get in most normal cars stick or automatic and drive away in them, just how unnatural would driving a Tesla be? 

 

 

Bob 

[Guest]

Probably means that somebody at the top has taken as much of the investors money as they can.

[Pilgrim65]

Mention Government subsidies , reminds me of the de Lorean car in the Uk cost us all.

[1935Packard]

57 minutes ago, 1937hd45 said:

If you do own one maybe you can answer the question I posted earlier. If I can get in most normal cars stick or automatic and drive away in them, just how unnatural would driving a Tesla be? 

 

 

Bob 

 

I don't own one (yet), but when I drove a Model S and a Model 3, I found it completely intuitive.  Once you figure out how to turn the car on and get into drive -- slightly different from a normal car, but easily remembered when done once before -- it's just like driving a gas-powered car except it's extremely quiet, the handling is remarkable, and the acceleration is phenomenal.  The biggest difficulty is figuring out how to do things like change the music or turn on the AC; it's kind of like doing that with a big iPhone instead of with the buttons and dials we are used to. Or at least that's my experience, as a not-yet-owner.

[1935Packard]

5 hours ago, Frantz said:

Has Tesla brought anything new to the market? I mean real marketable patents? Otherwise its really just marketing and once the technology is sorted out Tesla wont stand a chance. The lack of inovation rather than simply application would be my concern as a share holder (which I am not)

 

List of Tesla's granted patents:   https://patents.justia.com/company/tesla?list=patents

List of Tesla's patent applications: https://patents.justia.com/company/tesla?list=applications

 

As for whether they have brought anything new to the market, I think it's the most revolutionary car made in my lifetime.  Experience is subjective, of course, but it changed my understanding of what a car is and can be.  It's like nothing else on the road.  

[Frantz]

A list of patents doesnt mean they are marketable. Making something different doesnt mean everyone else cant do the same IF it turns out to be popular. Whats unique about them that gives em a real chance? What are they doing to have mass appeal that Ford or VW couldnt do? Initial price is only part of the problem. I just dont see anything about them that mimics a sucessful company.

[1935Packard]

1 hour ago, Frantz said:

A list of patents doesnt mean they are marketable. Making something different doesnt mean everyone else cant do the same IF it turns out to be popular. Whats unique about them that gives em a real chance? What are they doing to have mass appeal that Ford or VW couldnt do? Initial price is only part of the problem. I just dont see anything about them that mimics a sucessful company.

 

Frantz, have you ever driven a Tesla?  If not, you should.  It may answer your question.

[8E45E]

1 hour ago, Frantz said:

A list of patents doesnt mean they are marketable. Making something different doesnt mean everyone else cant do the same IF it turns out to be popular. Whats unique about them that gives em a real chance? What are they doing to have mass appeal that Ford or VW couldnt do? Initial price is only part of the problem. I just dont see anything about them that mimics a sucessful company.

Part of the problem is they really need a mid-to-full-size SUV on the market.  The Model-X is fine as a small crossover, but a full-size SUV will have be their high-volume model as the automotive market is currently 63% SUV/CUV-Van-Light truck vs. 37% passenger cars.

 

Keep in mind, Porsche, Jaguar, Bentley, Lamborghini, Maserati, and Rolls Royce have not ignored the SUV market for good reason.  There is huge money to be made in it.

 

Craig

Edited September 12, 2018 by 8E45E (see edit history)

[1937hd45]

6 hours ago, 1935Packard said:

 

I don't own one (yet), but when I drove a Model S and a Model 3, I found it completely intuitive.  Once you figure out how to turn the car on and get into drive -- slightly different from a normal car, but easily remembered when done once before -- it's just like driving a gas-powered car except it's extremely quiet, the handling is remarkable, and the acceleration is phenomenal.  The biggest difficulty is figuring out how to do things like change the music or turn on the AC; it's kind of like doing that with a big iPhone instead of with the buttons and dials we are used to. Or at least that's my experience, as a not-yet-owner.

If I ever get an iPhone and understand how to work it I'll get back to you.

 

Bob

[John348]

7 hours ago, 1935Packard said:

 

I don't own one (yet), but when I drove a Model S and a Model 3, I found it completely intuitive.  Once you figure out how to turn the car on and get into drive -- slightly different from a normal car, but easily remembered when done once before -- it's just like driving a gas-powered car except it's extremely quiet, the handling is remarkable, and the acceleration is phenomenal.  The biggest difficulty is figuring out how to do things like change the music or turn on the AC; it's kind of like doing that with a big iPhone instead of with the buttons and dials we are used to. Or at least that's my experience, as a not-yet-owner.

 

Those problems such as working the radio, A/C, shifting to drive, and even starting are on many new cars. I have a relatively new Cadillac and still can't figure how to change radio stations with ease after 3 years of ownership. The same goes for my new GMC Sierra which is even more complicated. The marketing is now geared for a more technical generation, the manufacturers are not looking to appease 60+ year old buyers. If you notice the new Cadillac commercials they seldom show anyone over 40 years old in any of them.

True Tesla does have a problem, they do need  to produce an entry priced vehicle  to develop long term brand loyalty, for the 30 something year olds. 

EV's are coming, I noticed this when I read a revision in the electrical code that all new homes with a garage are to have a provision for a charging station. The codes have always been proactive and somewhat visionary.   

Edited September 12, 2018 by John348 (see edit history)

[8E45E]

14 minutes ago, John348 said:

The marketing is now geared for a more technical generation, the manufacturers are not looking to appease 60+ year old buyers. If you notice the new Cadillac commercials they seldom show anyone over 40 years old in any of them.

That is why Cadillac, OLDsmobile, and Lincoln lost so much market share!  They tried to target those buyers in the 1980's and '90's which were not being replaced by younger buyers once they lost their driver's licence.  The younger buyers upgraded to the more opulent and upmarket versions of Audi, BMW, Lexus, Mercedes, etc., of what they were currently driving.  I know of many BMW drivers who started in their twenties with a 3-series who have maintained their brand loyalty by moving up to a 5, or a 7 or 8-series of the same marque when in their late fifties.

 

Craig

Edited September 12, 2018 by 8E45E (see edit history)

[John348]

4 minutes ago, 8E45E said:

That is why Cadillac, OLDsmobile, and Lincoln lost so much market share!  They tried to target those buyers in the 1980's and '90's which were not being replaced by younger buyers once they lost their driver's licence.  The younger buyers upgraded to the more opulent and upmarket versions of Audi, BMW, Lexus, Mercedes, etc., of what they were currently driving.  I know of many BMW drivers who started in their twenties with a 3-series who have maintained their brand loyalty by moving up to a 5, or a 7 or 8-series of the same marque when in their late fifties.

 

Craig

 

Leasing is a HUGE part of this plan. The buyer might or might not be in the market for a new car in 3-4 years, the leaser is back every 3 years and must get a car. Who would have thought that there would be a Cadillac that was priced below an Impala? There are no more Impala's and the ATS is that entry level car. 

[Rusty_OToole]

23 minutes ago, John348 said:

If you notice the new Cadillac commercials they seldom show anyone over 40 years old in any of them. 

No advertisement shows anyone over 30 unless they are selling retirement products. You can sell a young man's car to an old man but you can't sell an old man's car to a young man. Cadillac's problem for years was their aging customer base, if they are now appealing to a younger buyer that means they stand a chance of staying in business.

 

[John348]

Remember the sales slogan "it is not your fathers oldsmobile?" My all time favorite was a Ford slogan, "have you driven one lately?" Sort admitting that they built crappy cars in the past and now are making better ones.

The average Caddy buyer  averaged  1.5  Cadillacs in their lifetime, they did need to capture a younger market 

Edited September 12, 2018 by John348 (see edit history)

[mercer09]

The majority of Cadillac owners are over 65. that in itself is a problem.

 

John, was recently told by a salesman  the lease rate in America is now at 70%.

 

Hardly anyone buys anymore.....

[John348]

4 minutes ago, mercer09 said:

The majority of Cadillac owners are over 65. that in itself is a problem.

 

John, was recently told by a salesman  the lease rate in America is now at 70%.

 

Hardly anyone buys anymore.....

 

My friend who is the sales manager at  Cadillac Buick GMC dealer told me it was over 85% in the NYC metro area. Which was making it hard on the Buick side because the leaser could upgrade to a Cadillac for about $25 more a month, From what I can see Tesla does not offer leasing yet anyway

Edited September 12, 2018 by John348 (see edit history)

[Restorer32]

Somehow I doubt very much than nationwide anywhere near 70% of cars are leased. If this were true virtually all used cars would be "off lease". Taint so.

[mercer09]

Restorer,

 

only repeating what I was told....................... new cars, not used cars.

[charlier]

10 minutes ago, Restorer32 said:

Somehow I doubt very much than nationwide anywhere near 70% of cars are leased. If this were true virtually all used cars would be "off lease". Taint so.

 

As of the 1st quarter of 2018, 29.83% of new cars were on lease.

 

Share of new vehicles on lease in the United States

[Restorer32]

Does this 29% include corporate vehicles or just privately owned vehicles?

[John348]

49 minutes ago, Restorer32 said:

Does this 29% include corporate vehicles or just privately owned vehicles?

 

Why would that matter?

Edited September 12, 2018 by John348 (see edit history)

[John348]

1 hour ago, Restorer32 said:

Somehow I doubt very much than nationwide anywhere near 70% of cars are leased. If this were true virtually all used cars would be "off lease". Taint so.

 

How would anyone ever know where it came from? The lease is not with the dealer,  when it is car faxed  it comes up as a bank or another financial institution, it could have been a loan  or it could be a lease????  One thing for sure 100% of the used cars were new cars at one time

Edited September 12, 2018 by John348 (see edit history)

[8E45E]

4 hours ago, John348 said:

 

Who would have thought that there would be a Cadillac that was priced below an Impala? There are no more Impala's and the ATS is that entry level car. 

That is also facter.  The subcompact Ford Focus RS hatchback is within $5000 in price of a Lincoln Continental.  IMHO, the new Continental is priced way too low, and should have been a good profit maker for Ford.

 

Craig

[8E45E]

41 minutes ago, John348 said:

 

One thing for sure 100% of the used cars were new cars at one time

Powell is an exception.

 

Craig

[Dave Henderson]

4 hours ago, John348 said:

Remember the sales slogan "it is not your fathers oldsmobile?" My all time favorite was a Ford slogan, "have you driven one lately?" Sort admitting that they built crappy cars in the past and now are making better ones.

The average Caddy buyer  averaged  1.5  Cadillacs in their lifetime, they did need to capture a younger market 

Years ago Buick's slogan was "WHEN BETTER AUTOMOBILES ARE BUILT BUICK WILL BUILD THEM".  From my perspective it didn't go over well.  My reaction was... Well, why are you putting it off?   Anyone else have that take on it?

[Frank DuVal]

Ah, but the Powell was a new vehicle, just the chassis and drive train was used! ?

 

The only time leasing a vehicle makes economic sense (cheaper to the consumer) is when the payments are deductable from profit in a business. Waiting to hear if there is proof to the contrary.

[8E45E]

4 minutes ago, Frank DuVal said:

Ah, but the Powell was a new vehicle, just the chassis and drive train was used! 

 

 As you state, it was not 100% brand new.  The Powell was basically a 'glider' vehicle'. 

 

Craig

[John348]

54 minutes ago, Frank DuVal said:

Ah, but the Powell was a new vehicle, just the chassis and drive train was used! ?

 

The only time leasing a vehicle makes economic sense (cheaper to the consumer) is when the payments are deductable from profit in a business. Waiting to hear if there is proof to the contrary.

 

Yes but that chassis and drivetrain were new once.

 

I used to think the same as you about leasing, and I still never have leased, but I am thinking about it. I always bought my wife a new vehicle every 4-5 years. So now I look at where I am now. I own a 3 year old Cadillac I bought outright for over $60,000. It only has 27,000 miles. I was considering a trade in a few weeks ago and they offered about half of what I paid, so that car cost me about $1,000 a month to own If I leased it, I would not have to consider the extended warranty for about $2.000, but would have had to pay about $4K at signing of the lease. The lease was about $450 a month. While I still own the car I lost about $16,000. The days of buying a vehicle and keeping for 12 years is long gone.... I don't know just looking at it now it seemed that it would have paid off to lease. 

Everyone's situation is different, I know mine has changed in the last 15 years, at that point it my life a lease would not have paid, but now???? I just don't know

 

trying to get it back on topic, I think if Tesla offered a lease it would promote sales and thus production. Not having structured dealerships as we know and known them might be a problem. A kid who grew up down the street is a tech for Tesla and has an area in California. He told me he get's paid a retainer fee and is on call. If there is a problem the vehicle gets flat bedded to a designated new car dealership of another make that Tesla has an an arrangement with, a loaner vehicle is secured for the owners and he makes the repair. parts that are needed are shipped in 24 hours and has a service vehicle that has a stocked inventory of common parts in his van He said he is pretty quite, as nothing never really breaks

[Bhigdog]

Wondering about the folks in their Teslas caught in the evacuation from the Carolinas. Loong lines of slow traffic. Many miles to go in search of safety. Nervously looking at the range left in the battery. Trying to find a charging station without long lines of desperate Tesla owners trying to get a charge. Hours long wait to get plugged in. Wife checking the storms track and progress every 15 minutes while trying to calm the kids. Dog just threw up..................Bob

[ply33]

32 minutes ago, John348 said:

. . .. The days of buying a vehicle and keeping for 12 years is long gone....

 

Really? Just sold the spouse's 17 year old car as we decided we didn't need two daily drivers anymore. And the 2017 purchased last fall was to replace my 14 year old car that was totaled in an accident. I fully intend to keep the 2017 for at least 10 or more likely 15 years.

[Frantz]

about 30% of new cars are leased.. .not 70%. For people who buy new cars every few years leasing saves money in most situations. That's off topic though.

I have not driven a Tesla. I was in a showroom, but no one offered me a test drive. I really don't care though, that isn't my point. There is nothing "special" about them that anyone else couldn't make if there was a market demand. Same as Tucker. The big three weren't threatened by Tucker, they could have made em just as well. Tesla does some very stupid things, such as having a Tesla only charger when everyone else used the same one. They don't use dealers and have proprietary maintenance as well. They offer nothing that someone else couldn't offer if the market demanded it, and once the market accepts it, they have nothing to set them apart from everyone who copies it. It's just a really really poor business model. I have no problem with the product or idea, it just is a crap business model. At best, you could hope for a buy out as an investor.

[John348]

1 hour ago, Bhigdog said:

oWondering about the folks in their Teslas caught in the evacuation from the Carolinas. Loong lines of slow traffic. Many miles to go in search of safety. Nervously looking at the range left in the battery. Trying to find a charging station without long lines of desperate Tesla owners trying to get a charge. Hours long wait to get plugged in. Wife checking the storms track and progress every 15 minutes while trying to calm the kids. Dog just threw up..................Bob

 

When there is no electricity there are no pumps pumping gas either, either way it is problem for all involved! There were plenty of nervous people looking for non existent gasoline in Florida a year ago, lets not forget that, and Sandy was no pleasure up here either looking for fuel. If I had a Tesla I could have charged it, power was back before we had and gasoline.

 

1 hour ago, ply33 said:

 

Really? Just sold the spouse's 17 year old car as we decided we didn't need two daily drivers anymore. And the 2017 purchased last fall was to replace my 14 year old car that was totaled in an accident. I fully intend to keep the 2017 for at least 10 or more likely 15 years.

 

Hopefully we both will be here to talk in 10 years about how that game plan worked out, I hope for your sake it serves you  perfectly for as long as you need it too, again it all depends where you live and the use of the vehicle. Everybody's situation is different

A 17 year old car in the metro NYC area is pretty hard to find, and is pretty beat up by the time it is 7 years old, combine that with rock salt, salt air, and bad roads pretty much ready for the junk yard, and yes I forgot to mention NYS emission inspections usually get them at the 9 year old point , too expensive to repair. I personally do not want to deal with problems in everyday transportation  so, that is just me.  I move on every 4-5 years now maybe 5-6 years once the warranty is gone so is the car. I never owned a foreign car and never will, and make sure my American car was made in America and by union workers who were payed a livable wage, that is just me and how I was raised  

Edited September 12, 2018 by John348 (see edit history)

[Bhigdog]

1 minute ago, John348 said:

When there is no electricity there are no pumps pumping gas either, either way it is problem for all involved! There were plenty of nervous people looking for non existent in Florida a year ago, lets not forget that.

 

 

Much more of a problem when you have limited range, a dearth of charging stations & long charge times. Pretty easy to fill a few extra gas cans. Not so easy to stash a spare charged battery. At least right now an electric car is best seen as an auxiliary vehicle to another "all use" vehicle. Even then it's use requires a measure of planning and contingency planning not required with a normally fueled vehicle. Not unusual to look at the gas gauge and realize you might be getting a bit low. With a gasser not a problem. With an electric???????...........Bob

[John348]

40 minutes ago, Frantz said:

about 30% of new cars are leased.. .not 70%. For people who buy new cars every few years leasing saves money in most situations. That's off topic though.

I have not driven a Tesla. I was in a showroom, but no one offered me a test drive. I really don't care though, that isn't my point. There is nothing "special" about them that anyone else couldn't make if there was a market demand. Same as Tucker. The big three weren't threatened by Tucker, they could have made em just as well. Tesla does some very stupid things, such as having a Tesla only charger when everyone else used the same one. They don't use dealers and have proprietary maintenance as well. They offer nothing that someone else couldn't offer if the market demanded it, and once the market accepts it, they have nothing to set them apart from everyone who copies it. It's just a really really poor business model. I have no problem with the product or idea, it just is a crap business model. At best, you could hope for a buy out as an investor.

 

I was contacted by Tesla to see if I wanted to take a test drive, I guess they managed to get a list somehow, of owners of comparable priced vehicles and sent an invitation to come a local mall parking lot for a test drive/survey, Pretty good food as well, though no booze (for obvious reasons) would have made it a better afternoon, maybe could used that to sell the driverless technology It was not a hard sell attempt at all, really just an introduction to the vehicle. I had nothing to do so I gave it a go, It was a fast fun car to drive, just not for me. I wonder how they sell overseas?

Edited September 12, 2018 by John348 (see edit history)

[John348]

27 minutes ago, Bhigdog said:

 

Much more of a problem when you have limited range, a dearth of charging stations & long charge times. Pretty easy to fill a few extra gas cans. Not so easy to stash a spare charged battery. At least right now an electric car is best seen as an auxiliary vehicle to another "all use" vehicle. Even then it's use requires a measure of planning and contingency planning not required with a normally fueled vehicle. Not unusual to look at the gas gauge and realize you might be getting a bit low. With a gasser not a problem. With an electric???????...........Bob

 

All sounds logical and good providing that there is any gasoline to be had, people were waiting on line for hours after Sandy just with the hope a fuel truck would show. In Florida last the storm did not even hit and there was no gas to be had anywhere. The Tesla has a GPS system that locates charging systems and calculates when the vehicle needs a charge before the driver

Edited September 12, 2018 by John348 (see edit history)

[1912Staver]

I have about 130,000 miles on my 8 year old Hyundai, I figure it is about 2/3 through its useful life.  As a 1 year old used car with about 15,000 miles I paid $10,000 plus tax. 1 failed sensor replaced on warranty, otherwise just normal maintenance. Second set of tires are needing replacement before the rainy season arrives, the O.E.M. tires were rubbish. I bought a set of like new Michelins last week for $150.00 Cdn for all 5.   My longish commute just ended as I retired. I figure the car has at least 4 years left in it. Not even a clutch yet !  Uninspiring but remarkably thrifty and dependable. And actually it has a fair bit of scoot, quite light with a 5 speed. Cadillacs sound really expensive !! Tesla's too!!

 

Greg in Canada 

[Bhigdog]

34 minutes ago, John348 said:

All sounds logical and good providing that there is any gasoline to be had, people were waiting on line for hours after Sandy just with the hope a fuel truck would show. In Florida last the storm did not even hit and there was no gas to be had anywhere. The Tesla has a GPS system that locates charging systems and calculates when the vehicle needs a charge before the driver

 

In any "situation" there can be events that put a person in a S.O.L. position. It's just a whole lot easier to plan and deal with contingencies when your vehicle uses common and readily available fuel that is easily stored and quickly put where needed. Not knocking Tesla. Just saying the PITA factor of dealing with the whole thing makes it a non starter for me and my situation........Bob

[charlier]

3 hours ago, John348 said:

trying to get it back on topic, I think if Tesla offered a lease it would promote sales and thus production. 

 

FYI, Tesla has had a leasing program for at least a  few years now. 

 

tesla-launches-limited-two-year-lease-program This particular program was in 2016. There were other programs before and some since.

 

One has to wonder where their current sales would be without their leasing program.

 

Charlie

[60FlatTop]

Sandy. No one in the New York- Long Island area was able to figure out they could take the cap off a fuel tank, put in a pipe with a hand pump at the top, and turn a crank to get fuel. They claimed police and emergency vehicles sat without fuel. Those geniuses whined about it in Albany and the state passed a law requiring ALL the stations to have emergency generators at a pretty hefty expense.

 

No hand pumps have been promoted. Makes one wonder how they got the water out of tanks in the flooded areas.

 

I thought Tesla was just a government funded job creation exercise. Those things don't last long anyway. Shaky foundations.

Edited September 12, 2018 by 60FlatTop (see edit history)