So Tesla is tanking... your thoughts?

[CarNucopia]

2 hours ago, John348 said:

 

 

At almost $280 a share how can anyone say they are failing? 

 

They are failing because they lost $1,500,000,000 in the first six months of this year. Not a typo, $1.5 Billion. The stock market gets it wrong on occasion.

[John348]

I purchased a new Yukon in I think 2002 or 3 and it was E-85 compatible and I was given a tax break at that time, as I recall it was limited to so many vehicles. I can appreciate the feeling toward the road tax, and really can't imagine the roads could get any worse in the NYC Metro area then they are now without any tax collected.

[JV Puleo]

I have no problem with electric cars... but I greatly resent being taxed to give a subsidy to some wealthy toff, both Mr. Musk and anyone who buys one, especially as there is a snowball's chance in h--l that I will ever have that much to spend on a car.

[kgreen]

13 hours ago, padgett said:

Have wondered for some time just how many electric cars the electric grid can sustain. I remember brownouts with half the population (has tripled here in the last 30 years) at 6pm when everyone got home and turned the AC on. What will happen when they also plug their cars in. The power company is already asking for a rate increase at peak times.

 

Here in Georgia, the power company sets up the charging station and gives the home owner an equivalent to time-of-use pricing.  If they charge their cars off-peak the rate is lower.  I'm not sure how they monitor that. Charging off peak is a good idea as power plant capacity remains but demand falls so the plant goes on hold.  Much like paying for rental tools, fixed costs continue on whether you use the power plant or rental tool.  When we talk about capacity, we have to talk about diversity of use as well.  Plants are built to meet the maximum demand; if we level out the demand, we would have little additional fixed equipment cost.  The technology exists to allow the power company access to a remote charger with the purpose of activating it during off-peak hours.  

 

The other question will always be how the government can make money from of any system.  We had the petroleum industry lobby for their benefit, now we have the corn growers and ethanol producers lobbying for their benefit.  It will be a political power shift, just not sure who is playing the game or will win. However the shift happens it is in significant part due to the ever growing population standing on this planet.  Things have to change to account for that.

[Rusty_OToole]

That is not the point. All new technology is expensive at first. Autos, radios, cell phones, computers were once toys for the rich, but the miracle of mass production is, the more you make of something the better and cheaper they get. The subsidies are to help get through that initial start up phase. Now that has nearly been completed and mainstream auto companies are bringing out electric cars that are almost competitive with gas cars, and soon will outdo the gas car.

[1912Staver]

38 minutes ago, JV Puleo said:

I have no problem with electric cars... but I greatly resent being taxed to give a subsidy to some wealthy toff, both Mr. Musk and anyone who buys one, especially as there is a snowball's chance in h--l that I will ever have that much to spend on a car.

 

Yes , here in Canada there is substantial tax payer incentives for electric car purchases.  A Tesla lists for about 12 times the amount of my last new { actually a 1 year old trade in} car. I had to pay every nickel of the price, anyone even thinking about a car as expensive as a Tesla should have to also pay the entire cost.  I am tired of subsidising those with far deeper pockets than I have.

 

Greg in Canada

[John348]

Are the Tesla's actually bought or leased?  nevermind from what I can find they all seem to be purchased. Cost wise they seem to be in the price range of all of the high end luxury cars both domestic and foreign 

Edited September 11, 2018 by John348 (see edit history)

[ply33]

14 minutes ago, kgreen said:

Here in Georgia, the power company sets up the charging station and gives the home owner an equivalent to time-of-use pricing.  If they charge their cars off-peak the rate is lower.  I'm not sure how they monitor that. . .

 

In California Pacific Gas & Electric (Northern California), San Diego Gas & Electric and, I believe, all the other utilities have swapped out all the residential electrical meters for "smart meters". Those meters save them money as they don't need the manpower to go around and read them. But they also are capable of reporting the amount of power used based on time.

 

If you get an EV or plug-in vehicle you are strongly encouraged to change from the old traditional tiered electrical rate plan to a "time of use" rate plan. Basically your electrical cost depends on how much you use and what time of day use use it. Up to you to decide to set your car to charge when you want. During summer it is much cheaper to charge the car at the "super off peak" time than during peak hours. During winter the difference in peak and off peak rates are not as big.

[John348]

24 minutes ago, Rusty_OToole said:

That is not the point. All new technology is expensive at first. Autos, radios, cell phones, computers were once toys for the rich, but the miracle of mass production is, the more you make of something the better and cheaper they get. The subsidies are to help get through that initial start up phase. Now that has nearly been completed and mainstream auto companies are bringing out electric cars that are almost competitive with gas cars, and soon will outdo the gas car.

 

THey have a roadster that is pretty much a super car for $250.000,  0-60 1.9 sec and a top speed of 250 mph and over 600 miles to a charge 

 https://www.tesla.com/roadster

[Frank DuVal]

I do wish people would quit thinking Ralph Nader wrote a book about the Corvair. He wrote a book about the automotive industry. The subtitle was: The Designed-In Dangers of the American Automobile.

 

Yes, the first chapter was "The Sporty Corvair".  There is more than one chapter!

 

I think most people found the book boring and just read into the first chapter and set the book down.....?

[mercer09]

 

They are failing because they lost $1,500,000,000 in the first six months of this year. Not a typo, $1.5 Billion. The stock market gets it wrong on occasion.

 

 

BINGO! HOW MANY COMPANIES CAN TAKE THESE HITS AND STAY IN BUSINESS?  BASIC ECONOMICS 101.........

[Kevin M]

I’m in Westchester county NY there’s a ton of Tesla’s around here. From everyone I’ve spoken to who has one they all seem to be very pleased with them. I’d consider one if my wallet agreed and they weren’t so digital. Power windows and CDs are enough for me. I also don’t understand how people in gereral are surprised that the guy who makes electric cars, rockets, and flamethrowers smoked weed once. I think that may be why some people have sold their stocks but what do I know. I’m just a sailor. 

[amxdreamer]

I've heard the rumours of mileage taxes here due to hybrids and electric vehicles not creating enough fuel taxes. This bugs me on a couple of reasons. The government knows the fuel companies are gouging us on costs but won't do anything because once again they lose tax revenue. Secondly, the mileage taxes don't account for my almost 10,000 miles towing in the USA this summer. I would have to pay tax on that...on top of any taxes I paid for all that fuel!

[Frantz]

5 hours ago, JV Puleo said:

I have no problem with electric cars... but I greatly resent being taxed to give a subsidy to some wealthy toff, both Mr. Musk and anyone who buys one, especially as there is a snowball's chance in h--l that I will ever have that much to spend on a car.

If it makes you feel better the consumer tax credit is non-refundable. Meaning it can take your tax burden down to zero, but it can't grant a refund.

[mercer09]

Kevin, Westchester county is not middle America, so right, most people could never afford a Tesla....................!

[jrbartlett]

AMXDreamer -- Where do you get "fuel companies are gouging us on costs?" I don't know where you are, but here in Texas I'm currently paying $2.39 per gallon for regular. If you back out the general inflation rate, that equals 31 cents in mid-1966 dollars. Which is pretty much what I was paying back then while commuting to college. Sometimes 27 cents, sometimes 33 cents.  

[John348]

24 minutes ago, mercer09 said:

Kevin, Westchester county is not middle America, so right, most people could never afford a Tesla....................!

 

 

They are not priced in the " most people" price range, Tesla's are a luxury car, ad are priced in that range to appeal to those buyers who are considering the high end Mercedes and such.  I am not really sure what your point is or where you are going with that observation. True most of America is not Westchester, or any of the surrounding suburbs of NYC, LA, or SF, but those areas are the highest income areas in the US as well as the most densely populated.  I see at least 2 or 3 Tesla's a day here on Long Island, and many more European Luxury cars. and at least 7-10 Escalade's daily, and  they  are selling for $10,000 over the $97,000 window sticker.  The Tesla is not a Chevrolet Volt which to me is nothing more then a golf cart with windows and a radio, I personally feel that GM could care less if they sell one Volt, but it does help them with their CAFE Standards, so while it easy to say Tesla is playing the system, they all are!

Why care if somebody wants to buy a Tesla if they can afford it. As pointed out earlier in this thread Tesla's are made here in the USA and employ people

[TerryB]

Nearly every automobile made in the brass era was a toy for the well off, no secret there.  A guy making 20 cents an hour didn’t buy a Locomobile or most any early auto.  Henry Ford changed all that with the T but the big $$$ cars still were sold too.  Model 3 Tesla is the electric car in the buying rage of more people.  Saying Tesla is only a high end car for rich people is no longer true.

[mercer09]

 

They are not priced in the " most people" price range, Tesla's are a luxury car, ad are priced in that range to appeal to those buyers who are considering the high end Mercedes and such.  I am not really sure what your point is or where you are going with that observation. True most of America is not Westchester, or any of the surrounding suburbs of NYC, LA, or SF, but those areas are the highest income areas in the US as well as the most densely populated.  I see at least 2 or 3 Tesla's a day here on Long Island, and many more European Luxury cars. and at least 7-10 Escalade's daily, and  they  are selling for $10,000 over the $97,000 window sticker.  The Tesla is not a Chevrolet Volt which to me is nothing more then a golf cart with windows and a radio, I personally feel that GM could care less if they sell one Volt, but it does help them with their CAFE Standards, so while it easy to say Tesla is playing the system, they all are!

Why care if somebody wants to buy a Tesla if they can afford it. As pointed out earlier in this thread Tesla's are made here in the USA and employ people

 

 

John, very simple point, if nobody can afford them, you cant sell them. Ever wonder why Tesla is losing billions?

 

do the math John, everyone is not a big deal!

[John348]

4 minutes ago, mercer09 said:

John, everyone is not a big deal!

 

????????? 

I am sure there are Escalades all over middle america as well?? 

[mercer09]

Living in the northeast is a big difference to living in much of the south and midwest.

 

many many trailer homes in America. dont see many of those in Long Island.............

 

Money tends to reside on the coasts.

 

 

[1912Staver]

It's not the price tag , there is always going to be people from all points on the wealth spectrum. It's the tax payer funded subsidy. And from what I am hearing it is happening in both the U.S. and Canada. 

 

Greg in Canada

[keninman]

4 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:

It's not the price tag , there is always going to be people from all points on the wealth spectrum. It's the tax payer funded subsidy. And from what I am hearing it is happening in both the U.S. and Canada. 

 

Greg in Canada

So do you think that the government is not subsidizing every car company, even with just artificially low taxes and cheap gasoline because our military is ensuring the oil always flows? 

 

[Kevin M]

Very true all. I guess y’all are right in a way.  For my area they seem to do alright. But I don’t think they will be everywhere anytime soon. As long as there is oil gas cars will persist. 

[keninman]

I wonder how someone got the notion that Tesla is "tanking"? The stock price is not the only measure of a company. The speculators might pulling back but unless Tesla is issuing more stock, they already have their money. Tesla is not only about electric cars but producing them in numbers that will make them affordable to the average buyer. 

 

The idea is sound but any cutting edge concept like their automated assembly lines are chancy at best. I imagine folks were saying similar things about Ford back in the day. Automation is already here and will only increase as time goes by, the old days of an assembly worker turning bolts is soon to be completely obsolete and pumping gas will be a quaint as hitching rails, watering troughs or even phone booths, better get use to it.

[mercer09]

Porsche came out with lower priced vehicles (Boxer-Mecaun) and now they dominate along with VW.

 

Tesla has the right idea of producing some lower priced cars, to hit the masses, but are having problems none the less keeping up with production. They just cant do it. If you want to stay  in business, need to build what people want and take in the cash, not just talk about it forever............

 

Americans grow bored very quickly.

 

The best of restaurants tend to last about 5 years and then go into obscurity.

[mercer09]

Keninman,

when you spend 1000. dollars but only take in 10 dollars, you are tanking. Go read the ER for Tesla and maybe you'll understand.

 

If you make 100k a year and spend 200k a year, yes you are broke.

[mercer09]

anyway, very interesting to hear everyone's opinions on the matter and will be interesting to watch Tesla going into the future.

 

many excellent points and hopefully Tesla can turn the corner and become viable.

[amxdreamer]

1 hour ago, jrbartlett said:

AMXDreamer -- Where do you get "fuel companies are gouging us on costs?" I don't know where you are, but here in Texas I'm currently paying $2.39 per gallon for regular. If you back out the general inflation rate, that equals 31 cents in mid-1966 dollars. Which is pretty much what I was paying back then while commuting to college. Sometimes 27 cents, sometimes 33 cents.  

I'm up in British Columbia on the west coast of Canada. Filled up the AMX the other night with premium at 1.629/L Filled up the F350 today with diesel at 1.339/L

[TerryB]

$2.99 gal here in SE PA.  I still remember the $4 gallon days too.

[1912Staver]

7 minutes ago, amxdreamer said:

I'm up in British Columbia on the west coast of Canada. Filled up the AMX the other night with premium at 1.629/L Filled up the F350 today with diesel at 1.339/L

Most of last week it was only a few cents cheaper here in the Vancouver area.  Just think of all the money I could save if I just had the $130.000 .00 or so a Tesla retails for around here.

 

Greg

[1937hd45]

Is it true it takes three days to drive an electric (and recharge along the way) from New York to Miami? Bob 

[John348]

1 hour ago, mercer09 said:

Living in the northeast is a big difference to living in much of the south and midwest.

 

many many trailer homes in America. dont see many of those in Long Island.............

 

Money tends to reside on the coasts.

 

 

 

Very well aware of that, there are not too many trailer parks if any, but then again most of America does not pay $15,000 a year on property tax for 75' X 150' lot with a 6 room cape. I am not complaining, everything is relative, and i avoid counting other peoples money.

 

13 minutes ago, 1937hd45 said:

Is it true it takes three days to drive an electric (and recharge along the way) from New York to Miami? Bob 

 

Actually no, I had seen several charging at a service area on I-95 in Delaware, and I was curious and spoke with an owner of one and they told me  about an hour every 300 miles, which really is not that bad

[1912Staver]

1 hour ago, keninman said:

So do you think that the government is not subsidizing every car company, even with just artificially low taxes and cheap gasoline because our military is ensuring the oil always flows? 

 

 

In Canada at least the subsidy is a substantial rebate to the purchaser. A reward for buying a car that costs more than 3 years of my middle class take home earnings.

 

Greg

[MochetVelo]

Fisker tanked, but not Tesla (yet). I wouldn't bet against Musk, but I haven't bought any stock, either.

 

Phil

[charlier]

When a dreamer/innovator starts up a company that person needs other people around them with good, solid, backgrounds in all aspects of business and a Board of Directors that is looking out for the best interests of the company and it's shareholders. Sadly, in the case of Tesla, the company does not have those individuals in those key areas. These are some of the reasons why Tesla finds itself in the position it is in today. Having family members/relatives on the Tesla Board has created a situation where the CEO basically answers to NO ONE. One has to wonder why the Chief Accounting Officer at Tesla resigned after only ONE MONTH on the job???  He is just one of many executives that have gone through the revolving door at Tesla over the years.

 

All indications are that Tesla is still burning through cash at an unsustainable rate. Regardless of what Elon Musk says, Tesla is running out of cash to invest in the company or to simply pay it's bills. Sooner or later Tesla's "Tent Factory" will have to get replaced with a REAL BUILDING. Tesla will need BILLIONS of dollars to build new plants and money to develop the Tesla Semi-Truck and other models and Tesla batteries for those models. Tesla needs money from the capital markets. Selling stock will not get them out of their cash flow problems. If this is not bad enough Tesla's most profitable market looks like it will experience a BIG drop in sales thanks to the trade war between the USA and China. Tesla's Collapse In China Spells Trouble For 2H Profits. If this does actually happen, Tesla may very well kiss profitability goodbye. That will make is VERY DIFFICULT for Tesla to raise capital since many sources of huge amounts of financing want to see profitability and not just in one financial quarter.

 

Do I want to see Tesla Fail, of course not. Mr. Musk needs to put on his big boy pants, hire executives to run certain parts of the business and then LET THEM RUN THOSE PARTS OF THE BUSINESS. He CANNOT do everything himself. If he continues to operate the company as he has he will have health problems and suffer the consequences. The Board at Tesla needs to grow a spine and some other body parts and get the company on the right track. If they fail to do so then Tesla may not survive. That would be SAD.

 

Charlie

 

 

[Frantz]

Has Tesla brought anything new to the market? I mean real marketable patents? Otherwise its really just marketing and once the technology is sorted out Tesla wont stand a chance. The lack of inovation rather than simply application would be my concern as a share holder (which I am not)

[keninman]

2 hours ago, mercer09 said:

Keninman,

when you spend 1000. dollars but only take in 10 dollars, you are tanking. Go read the ER for Tesla and maybe you'll understand.

 

If you make 100k a year and spend 200k a year, yes you are broke.

The problem with your analysis is that you are only measuring cash flow. If I buy a new widget making what-ya-ma-call-it and spend $1.5 million on it, the thing is still worth $1.5 million and does not instantly become worthless though I laid out $1.5 million of someone's money before selling my first widget. The factories and technology Tesla has developed will pay out over decades not one financial quarter. They couldn't start quite like Ford did and make a few autos by hand while buying engines from the Dodge bros. Even Studebaker was making wagons and carriages when they added in some new fangled automobiles, noisy, unreliable and expensive as they were in that day and age. Tesla is building from the ground up and it won't be a simple process. I would also imagine that they have acquired a great deal of technology, both in the autos and manufacturing technology that they will sell or license to other manufactures. 

 

I think the greatest threat to Tesla is what is about to happen in the US and world economies. This boom has ran too long, the US deficit is exploding, a lose lose trade war and the inverted yield curve in the bond market harbinger much leaner if not down right desolate times ahead. While Tesla may very well "tank" I doubt they will be the first and certainly not the last. Anyhow their technology and knowledge will spread, one way or another. The concept of both the car and manufacturing process are sound, just as sound as petrol was back in the beginning of the auto boom when tin lizzies and flivers tried to prove who could make it over the hill and later who could do it in the fastest time. 

[keninman]

3 hours ago, mercer09 said:

 

They are not priced in the " most people" price range, Tesla's are a luxury car, ad are priced in that range to appeal to those buyers who are considering the high end Mercedes and such.  I am not really sure what your point is or where you are going with that observation. True most of America is not Westchester, or any of the surrounding suburbs of NYC, LA, or SF, but those areas are the highest income areas in the US as well as the most densely populated.  I see at least 2 or 3 Tesla's a day here on Long Island, and many more European Luxury cars. and at least 7-10 Escalade's daily, and  they  are selling for $10,000 over the $97,000 window sticker.  The Tesla is not a Chevrolet Volt which to me is nothing more then a golf cart with windows and a radio, I personally feel that GM could care less if they sell one Volt, but it does help them with their CAFE Standards, so while it easy to say Tesla is playing the system, they all are!

Why care if somebody wants to buy a Tesla if they can afford it. As pointed out earlier in this thread Tesla's are made here in the USA and employ people

 

 

John, very simple point, if nobody can afford them, you cant sell them. Ever wonder why Tesla is losing billions?

 

do the math John, everyone is not a big deal!

I think you are right and wrong at the same time. GM only cares about the Volt, well for the fuel standards. Even with subsidies it was a loser. However like those early NASA rockets, the engineers learned something, even from the ones that blew up on the launch pad. If there is one thing is clear from history, long established companies usually lose out on new technologies because they don't embrace them. Back in the 50s IBM turned down  Chester Carlton's copy process. They said that 250k units the market would be saturated. A little film company took a chance on the process, mortgaged their factories, spent years in development and launched the Xerox 914 in 1959. IBM was wrong, they couldn't make the damn copiers as fast as they could sell them. History is rife with stories like this one. A more modern version is Dyson. Its a good story and one about how the major manufacturers were all wrong. Like Dylan said, "the times they are a changin' "

[keninman]

1 hour ago, 1912Staver said:

 

In Canada at least the subsidy is a substantial rebate to the purchaser. A reward for buying a car that costs more than 3 years of my middle class take home earnings.

 

Greg

I was thinking of the US military and government though I imagine Canada receives a benefit from this also. Ya'll should have to subsidizer our military, I'm tired of doing it.