Have we seen the very top of the market?

[Matt Harwood]

For the first time in decades and probably for the last time ever, a Ferrari 250 GTO has sold at auction:

https://www.bonhams.com/auctions/21917/lot/3/

The final tally was more than $38 million, which is a truly staggering number, but I suspect that more than a few other GTO owners are pretty upset. They had to be very nervous about such a car being auctioned (without reserve, no less!), but now that the results are in, well, despite the massive number, it seems kind of underwhelming. There were stories of $40 million or even $50 million being bandied around before the sale, and they honestly didn't seem far-fetched to most folks who pay attention to these kinds of esoteric things. Sure, this is a mid-pack GTO, not the best, not the worst, but it'll only cost a tiny fraction of the car's value to make it perfect once again, leaving us with the question of whether it will truly be worth notably more when it is perfect?

If there's a "biggest price ever paid at auction" footnote in history, this car now owns it and probably will forevermore. The sad thing is that we have now seen the top of the mountain.

[trimacar]

I liked the old car hobby a lot better when we were just starting to see the foothills.....

[rusty12]

People said that about the car market in the 1980s, especially after the multiple record prices paid at the Harrah auctions. Just think about what bargains some of those record setting cars would be today....

When Old 16 sold to the Henry Ford Museum, it was the highest price ever paid for an American car and it was a record that stuck for several years, but in the last few years that record has shattered a couple of times.

People say the same about recent price trends in the high end art market (which makes even the top end car market, like the Ferrari that just sold, look like chump change) and lately it has been breaking its own records on a monthly basis.

I am in Pebble Beach as I type. As I was returning to my hotel yesterday, I saw a real estate sign pointing toward Seaside ( a cute town, but not nearly as prestigious as Monterey or Carmel) that quite boldly stated "Starter homes in the low 1 Million" I am sure someone set a record there just a few years ago when they paid 500,000.00 for something much nicer than a "starter home".

It is certainly inevitable that certain segments of every market might stall, even dip some, but eventually they will come back and continue to set more records.

Edited August 15, 2014 by rusty12 (see edit history)

[Guest]

People said that about the car market in the 1980s, especially after the multiple record prices paid at the Harrah auctions. Just think about what bargains some of those record setting cars would be today....

When Old 16 sold to the Henry Ford Museum, it was the highest price ever paid for an American car and it was a record that stuck for several years, but in the last few years that record has shattered a couple of times.

People say the same about recent price trends in the high end art market (which makes even the top end car market, like the Ferrari that just sold, look like chump change) and lately it has been breaking its own records on a monthly basis.

I am in Pebble Beach as I type. As I was returning to my hotel yesterday, I saw a real estate sign pointing toward Seaside ( a cute town, but not nearly as prestigious as Monterey or Carmel) that quite boldly stated "Starter homes in the low 1 Million" I am sure someone set a record there just a few years ago when they paid 500,000.00 for something much nicer than a "starter home".

It is certainly inevitable that certain segments of every market might stall, even dip some, but eventually they will come back and continue to set more records.

Most certainly, especially when the dollar collapses and when a loaf of bread will cost $1,000 bucks.

[jeff_a]

Not the old car hobby so much as the old car business.

[R W Burgess]

I liked the old car hobby a lot better when we were just starting to see the foothills.....

I agree with David. Our local region had a grand opening at a local Chevy dealer back in the Spring. We were amazed at the price of a new suburban, $80,000+. I questioned the dealer on it. He told me that they sell them every week. I was amazed. Last night at our local County Fair, our members were discussing that Chevy and one of us mentioned that those suburbans are now near $100,000!!!

*

*

Hello! HELLO!! It's unbelievable to me that Chevy would ever get anyone in a dealership to spend that kind of money. So, hey! Maybe 40-50 years from now a lowly Chevy will bring millions of dollars at an auction too???

[bruffsup]

Well the Innes Ireland GTO sold for 52 Million private sale and the new owner drives it! I wonder what the import duty will be if this car stays in the US

[joe_padavano]

If there's a "biggest price ever paid at auction" footnote in history, this car now owns it and probably will forevermore. The sad thing is that we have now seen the top of the mountain.

Seriously?

Inflation isn't making the price of anything go down, and there will always be people with more money than brains. "Never" is an awfully long time. Remember when Detroit made the "last convertible" and was "never" going to make them again?

[DonMicheletti]

I remember when a Ferrari GTO sold for an unheard of price of $10,000!!! That was a "few" years ago.

I was told I was a fool to pay $180 for a '31 Buick that was in perfect shape

[dan at larescorp]

I remember when a Ferrari GTO sold for an unheard of price of $10,000!!! That was a "few" years ago.

I was told I was a fool to pay $180 for a '31 Buick that was in perfect shape

A week or two ago huh...

[Guest Gary Hearn]

And to think my dad sold his '29 Pierce for $40.00....

[30DodgePanel]

Just like anything else it's cyclical.

BUT, IF the dollar ever does collapse or the ole "bank holiday" thingy is ever implemented then all bets are off, the cycle will be no more.

Nah.. that'll never happen

[cahartley]

Not according to the stupid money being spent at Mecum Auctions....... :eek:

[Kimo]

I think that it topped out several years ago and is in decline for the foreseeable future with the exception of a handful of the extreme models that are the ones you see winning the grand award at Pebble Beach. I do not see many new collectors getting into collecting and the old-timers are getting the point where they are wanting to sell off their collections to ever fewer buyers.

[Machinist_Bill]

I have to agree with Kimo. I have watched prices drop dramatically. The age group that loves the 20's and 30's cars are OLD! The young ones are wanting rat rods or street rods so there is still some value to the old cars. I am seeing restored cars get made into street rods. Think of that as a parts source for the remainder of us still alive. After the last man standing? I hate to use this reference but how many people are restoring covered wagons?

[Guest Kingoftheroad]

I don't do it for the money, I don't do it for the popularity, I do it for the love of the automobile..

[bhambulldog]

Our cars are not worth more. Their value holds steady.

The dropping value of the dollar increases the price of cars, the value remains steady

[John348]

The young ones are wanting rat rods or street rods

What is your idea of young? I have not seen a guy with a street rod under 65 in the past 5 years

[Machinist_Bill]

What is your idea of young? I have not seen a guy with a street rod under 65 in the past 5 years

Because I see you have two locations (Florida & Long Island) maybe you don't have any young people living there!

[Bhigdog]

Personally I'd rather have a new Ram/Cummins PU truck...............Bob

[John348]

Because I see you have two locations (Florida & Long Island) maybe you don't have any young people living there!

Not many old ones on the Island TOOOOOO MUCH MONEY to live here, and you still never answered my question.

I am kid at 55 in this hobby

Edited August 17, 2014 by Biscayne John (see edit history)

[auburnseeker]

I think there are more young getting into or hoping to get into the hobby than we are crediting. You see it on these forums all the time. I doubt alot of the guys that come on here with a late 70's or early 80's common car say 1984 Chevy Caprice are truly in love with it and have always wanted one. They want a cool old car. I bet if there was a questionnaire you had to fill out you would see many want an older car than they are messing with. They just couldn't find one for a price they could afford. As they get older, just like we have they attain more wealth and are then able to buy the cars they truly lust after. You probably don't see them at shows because the ones that will own old cars in the future are working 7 days a week to get ahead.

I have random people stop in my shop. Many I'm sure aren't well to do and are blown away by my Cord. I had one kid probably 16 or 17 stop and drool all over my 48 Plymouth. That was with my Corvette (before the incident) parked 40 feet away. He didn't even glance at the Corvette.

I think there are alot of younger guys out there just waiting and working to get to the position to beable to buy the car they want. If the economy ever turns around, you will probably see a resurgence.

Remember they aren't making these cars any more and with every disaster there is one less left. Add to that a growing population in the world and an ever growing global market and interest in vintage cars.

With say a generation selling off all at once the market will flood for some cars and the value will go down. Then after that is absorbed it will start recovering and guys will wish they had bought at the time of saturation.

Just my opinion of course. At 40, I'm middle of the road. I know a bunch of younger guys that want old cars. I've tried to steer some to get a good first car that won't bury them and have fun with the hobby and car before tackling a full blown frame off restoration. Usually those are the cars like we see new members here signing on with. Definitely not what they had in mind but some place to start. A 3000.00 car that you tinker with and make nicer will probably never be worth less than 3,000 if you don't destroy it or tear it all apart. It's worth that for basic transportation if nothing else. The 500.00 beater cars are a thing of the past in my area of the country.

[cahartley]

Guys around here pay more than $500 for stinkin' DEMO cars....... :eek:

[Machinist_Bill]

Not many old ones on the Island TOOOOOO MUCH MONEY to live here, and you still never answered my question.

I am kid at 55 in this hobby

I'm 60 so respect your elders kid! (Never thought I would EVER say that to a 55 year old)

In all seriousness we all have seen a change or we wouldn't see so many posts with the same subject theme. Maybe I'm just summarizing when I go to an auction, swap meet, car show and see an ocean of silver hair. Maybe I'm just ballparkin' when my Grandson says my old cars are cool but wants a 2015 Challenger Hellcat (Me too!)

Anybody who is not a baby boomer are the young ones. Generation X and everyone under! (Whatever their called now)

Disclaimer - All opinions are my own and mean absolutely nothing. I'm havin' fun here!

[39BuickEight]

$38mil is to $50mil just as $38,000 is to $50,000, and how often do we see a "$50k car" sell for $38? All the time depending on the auction, bidders, etc. I don't think it necessarily means anything at all, especially when you are dealing with such a far extreme example of the overall market.

[auburnseeker]

When the kids get all the student debt paid off they were told they needed to take on to get a $12.00 an hour job by misguided councilors they will be the silver haired crowd, filling the auction houses as they will finally be able to buy something with that education they were sold.

[trimacar]

Mike Rowe of Dirty Jobs fame agrees with you, he states there are plenty of jobs available, it just so happens that they are working with your hands, and new college graduates don't want to get their hands dirty..... http://profoundlydisconnected.com

[39BuickEight]

Exactly, any person with motivation and goals can find great jobs all over this great land, but too many are losing that entirely. Looking for these jobs in a radius more than 5 miles from where they grew up is just asking too much apparently.

[trimacar]

I enjoy the talk of old cars and the prices they bring, reminds me of the hobby long ago, mid-1980's, Harrah's sold to Holiday Inn and 1000 or so cars being auction off, the talk then was that the market would be saturated and values of ALL old cars would go down, with that many cars coming on the market at once.

The Harrah cars sold for top dollar at the time, and the market, if anything, went up as a result.....

My opinion (we all know that value!) is that very good cars will hold value or increase in value, project cars will eventually be impossible to give away due to high restoration costs, and while some cars won't sell and would-be sellers may criticize the market as a result, overall, there will be demand for good cars. The asking price just has to reach market value and have someone willing to pay it....

All that opinion is based on the economy limping along more or less like it is now, and no major crashes. I used to criticize the gub-mint for being in debt, but then recently read that the average personal debt in the US, 2014, is: Credit Card, $15,480 ; Mortgage, $156,474 ; student loan, $33,424.

So, we're all at fault....