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Dave@Moon

$100/barrel. What will it do?

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'What would possibly motivate people to believe this is a consumer conspiracy designed to fool them? Even some of the oil companies themselves, notably BP, have begun to actively encourage conservation and renewable energy development demonstrably against their own self interest! '

Dave,

here is the thing about the oil companies actively researching alternative energy, once we have cars that get 50 60 or 70 miles a gallon the oil companies will raise the price of gasoline accordingly, so, they still make the same amount of money (or more) with less product used. Also, these companies have begun to invest into the alternative energy industry. Consequently many alternative energy propigators have money invested into the industry, such as Al Gore. So, they, just like other companies and individuals have invested into an industry which they want to make money! And have a diversified portfolio!

(actually a cooling period is now predicted by many scientists, I wish that they would make up their minds!)

http://search.aol.com/aol/search?invocationType=snyexp10ab&query=scientist%20predicts%20global%20cooling

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#1: Reducing demand for your product, even (and <span style="text-decoration: underline">especially</span>) for a monopoly (<span style="font-style: italic">which we <span style="text-decoration: underline">do not</span> have despite the premise of your post, witness the different tacks being taken by BP and Exxon/Mobil</span>), is <span style="font-weight: bold"><span style="text-decoration: underline">never</span></span> a positive step for an industry.

#2: Energy companies that want to stay in business beyond the limitations of the resources that built them are not necessarily acting on an evil impulse.

#3: <div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> (actually a cooling period is now predicted by many scientists, I wish that they would make up their minds!)</div></div>

They <span style="text-decoration: underline">did</span>, by a factor of at least <span style="font-weight: bold"><span style="text-decoration: underline">10,000:1</span></span>, probably more. It's over. It's been over for at least a decade. <span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="font-weight: bold">Anybody</span></span> trying to tell you differently <span style="text-decoration: underline">is definitely</span> acting on an evil impulse, or under the influence of someone acting on one. People who have money on the line want to pretend there's nothing wrong with where it's coming from, and need you to pretend as well to make it work. Period.

Greed is an ugly thing. frown.gif

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#1: Reducing demand for your product, even (and especially) for a monopoly (which we do not have despite the premise of your post, witness the different tacks being taken by BP and Exxon/Mobil), is never a positive step for an industry.

Dave,

They are not 'reducing' demand in the normal matter, they are increasing their profit, through giving you less product for more $, aka. gas prices going to $10 a gallon when cars can finally get 40-60 miles a gallon and up, for more money a gallon so, when you fill up 10 gallons right now for $30 bucks you will only have to fill up 3 gallons for 10 bucks a gallon so, it is the same price or more in reality. Think of it this way, remember when they used to give you a sample tape for your player in your new car? Well, now they do not do that anymore, and instead the cars are more money and they give you less for your $ and less quality, another comparison is that cars of today are less reliable and not as long lasting as the cars of the 70's and before, so, they are giving you less for more, and this is what will happen with the oil industry.

'#2: Energy companies that want to stay in business beyond the limitations of the resources that built them are not necessarily acting on an evil impulse.'

The point I was trying to make was that they have something to gain through their encouragement of energy saving,etc. They are not doing it just to be good citizens, but, instead, keep their bottom line way in the black instead of the red, which will happen when oil in a 50 or 100 years finally phases out (if ever). So, they are diversifing their financial portfolios.

#3 They did, by a factor of at least 10,000:1, probably more. It's over. It's been over for at least a decade. Anybody trying to tell you differently is definitely acting on an evil impulse, or under the influence of someone acting on one. People who have money on the line want to pretend there's nothing wrong with where it's coming from, and need you to pretend as well to make it work. Period.

Well, here is the thing about that, scientists from time and again have said things that turned out to be wrong, remember those 10,000:1 scientists said that the Earth was the center of the universe and the solar system and that the sun revolved around us, they also said the earth was flat,etc. Sometimes the 1 scientist can be right and the majority can be wrong. As for 'anybody trying to tell you differently is acting on n 'evil' impulse' why is it that when someone disagrees with a popular thought at the time that they are bad or evil? People are mistaken and like I said before, it was the common belief that the world was flat and the people who said it was round and were outcasts and labeled as 'evil' and some times even executed! (Crazy how people were!). So, I would caution people to label others with such terms because it can be a mistake. As for the final part of your statement about people 'who have money on the line will pretend there is nothing wrong' is correct, but, remember people who have money on the line pretend there is something wrong as well so, they can make money. Now, I love the enviroment and I constantly visit nat. parks, etc. and I keep the enviroment clean and recycle And this view on the reduction of oil is a noble venture, but we are not the entire cause of this 'situation'(we might not be the cause at all if there is even a situation) (if there is one) Who will make the ever increasing China stop their use (a billion people live there) or Russia or any other industrialized nation. I would merely suggest caution when dealing with the 'global warming' theory because theories are just that, theories and, as we have seen time and again can turn out to be wrong.

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">They are not 'reducing' demand in the normal matter, they are increasing their profit, through giving you less product for more $, aka. gas prices going to $10 a gallon when cars can finally get 40-60 miles a gallon and up, for more money a gallon so, when you fill up 10 gallons right now for $30 bucks you will only have to fill up 3 gallons for 10 bucks a gallon so, it is the same price or more in reality.</div></div>

Incorrect. Demand goes down (i.e. 80 MPG cars), prices will also go down. Even the oil companies couldn't remain in business if, in response to decreased usage, they raised their profit margins to keep making more money. Sooner or later one of them <span style="font-style: italic">would</span> cut prices--they're not a monopoly, they're an oligoply where different businesses act as one because there is no competitive advantage to be gained by lowering prices. That would change as soon as demand started to drop.

The oil companies' record profits are based on volume (their margins are actually lower than most consumer goods, on the order of 1-3%), so raising prices would only have the effect of slashing volume. This would mean they would have to continue to raise prices to keep making money in a never-ending spiral that would drive them out of business. But if demand drops, that would change quickly and they would all start acting in their own best interests and dropping prices to maintain profitable sales volumes.

This is nothing like automakers removing content to keep vehicles at a price point, especially since other items are constantly being added (many by mandate). Oil companies removing certain additives or using cheaper additives to keep profits high would be a better match for your analogy.

The oil companies are subject to the same market forces as every other business. Right now, their profits are high because demand is high and consumption is astronomical (I did the math on here once, but what is 19 million barrels x 50 gallons/barrel x 365 days a year x $3.00/gallon x $0.10 profit/gallon? About $100 billion.

You can't ignore the fact that there is a price per gallon at which consumers will demand products that are more efficient. If prices go up with reduced demand as you predict, eventually market forces will force the oil companies out of business as something less expensive suddenly becomes viable (hydrogen or something that hasn't even been invented yet).

It is 100% incorrect to assume that oil companies will simply keep raising prices to continue making money when the inverse is true no matter what kind of economist you are.

Reduced demand = lower prices. Everybody wins in that scenario.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">So, they are diversifing their financial portfolios.</div></div>

Agreed. They'd be stupid to not plan for the future when oil is not the primary source of energy. It won't be soon, but that day will come and they would do well to be at the forefront of new energy technology. Or, if they're like most American companies, they can't see past the end of next quarter and will hand the industry to foreign competition.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> it was the common belief that the world was flat and the people who said it was round and were outcasts and labeled as 'evil' and some times even executed!</div></div>

Don't mistake commonly held belief with scientific fact. Once the science was present to prove that the Earth was round, commonly held beliefs followed. Scientific evidence is tough to ignore, no matter how badly we want the inverse to be true. Whatever you think of Dave's opinion (or your opinion of Al Gore), there's probably nobody here who knows more about this particular subject--it's Dave's job to know. The evidence is in--the only scientists still disputing it are those employed by the king who has a vested interest in a flat Earth and keeping his kingdom intact.

I agree with you in that we (i.e. humans) are not the sole cause. But there's no disputing that we are a contributor. Maybe efforts to change are a drop in the bucket, especially with India and China ramping up their consumption and output. It doesn't hurt to try to help, does it?

I look at it this way: If global warming is real, and we do nothing, we're in BIG trouble. If global warming is real and we try to do something, that's good and maybe we can avoid BIG trouble. If global warming is not real and we do nothing, no change. If global warming is not real and we try to do something, no harm done. That suggests to me that there's no good reason to ignore it because if it is true, and we do nothing, we're really screwed. Doing something helps us avoid the chance--<span style="font-style: italic">however slight</span>--of getting that screwing. The consequences of doing nothing in the face of the worst scenario are dire. Why gamble with the stakes so high, especially since the odds are against us?

Where's the harm in trying to be cleaner and more efficient in ways that will have only a minimal impact on our daily lives? That's the great thing about us--we can always find an alternative.

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Reduced demand = lower prices. Everybody wins in that scenario. </div></div>

And I thought my Prius was only saving the world. blush.gif Go figure! grin.gif

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Could we get back on topic guys!

Dave's original post asked...."How will it effect your plans? <span style="font-weight: bold">(with respect to antique cars)</span> What will you

do?"

Wayne

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Well I am saving right now because my car is under the weather smile.gif

But if she was running I would still take her out as much as I can. To the home good store etc. smile.gif

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if it goes to plus 4 bucks a gallon i will be forced to stop going to shows and meets out of my area.

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ted sweet</div><div class="ubbcode-body">if it goes to plus 4 bucks a gallon i will be forced to stop going to shows and meets out of my area. </div></div>

I was afraid I'd see a few responses like Ted's. I've been predicting for years that the hobby will go back to a more locally-oriented activity eventually. I think the tipping point might be reached this year for many of us. frown.gif

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Well I'll be making whatever sacrifices I have to. Any other crap I don't TRULY need will just not be bought. The hours I worked at my job last summer allowed me to put WAY more miles on the 38 going to cruises, which did not happen the summer before (worked afternoon to night). Should be the same this time around, I don't plan on holdin back. Fuel for my cars is priority ONE. Keep raisin' the prices I'll get rid of MORE other stuff. And I know that ain't the popular attitude to have in this time of trying to reduce our dependence and being more clean but I love this thing and that's what it needs so I can enjoy it...so it's gettin' it. I've had more than one civic with two girls in it hoot and holler as I went by them on a slower road if they saw me in time, one pair was waving out the sunroof and stuff. That's reason enough! laugh.gifwhistle.gif

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Dave@Moon</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ted sweet</div><div class="ubbcode-body">if it goes to plus 4 bucks a gallon i will be forced to stop going to shows and meets out of my area. </div></div>

I was afraid I'd see a few responses like Ted's. I've been predicting for years that the hobby will go back to a more locally-oriented activity eventually. I think the tipping point might be reached this year for many of us. frown.gif </div></div>

I think we are going to bag our trip to Florida we were planning in March. Towing an enclosed trailer and a car down and back will be close to a $1,000 in gas.

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Dave may be somewhat right on this, as Ron just stated that his plans may change. As AACA members, we generally make our big plans for the year with our favorite AACA event in mind. Almost everyone within reasonable close proximity attends fall Hershey, that's pretty much a given. You then have those that will go every year to Philly. The balance plan their one big meets or tours for the year, regardless of gas prices. Everything else in life revolves around the plans stated above.

Expensive gas, or not, our must-see personal events will continue as always. The only option left would be to give up on the hobby, and I don't see that happening.

It's an addiction folks. Some people "sell" their kids to accommodate their addictions. shocked.gifsmile.gif

Wayne

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: R W Burgess</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> Expensive gas, or not, our must-see personal events will continue as always. Wayne </div></div>

I agree regarding your must-see personal events. We are still planning to travel to our favorites this year, Canada, Ohio, etc however we are rethinking some of the ones we can live without.

Another trend I noticed last year is I see people attending an event that is far from home without bringing an old vehicle.

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Dave Moon says........"What would possibly motivate people to believe this is a consumer conspiracy designed to fool them? Even some of the oil companies themselves, notably BP, have begun to actively encourage conservation and renewable energy development demonstrably against their own self interest! (This may be the only time in history when major players in an industry have decided that they're making too much money, and have actively sought to reduce their own incomes.)"

I don't think that BP and others have decided that they are making too much money. Rather it's meerly a PR ploy to paint themselves "green" and dampen public resentment. As for other major industries doing the same thing I could mention both the tobacco and alcoholic drink industrie's campaigns to use their products "responsibly". And of course many, if not all, electrical utility companies promote conservation by offering free insulation, light bulbs, energy suveys, etc. BP and others aren't looking to limit their profits as much to insure them over the long term. If reducing profit was the "goal" the most effective and quickest way would be to simply raise their prices above the competition. That would both reduce the amount they sold while husbanding their supply.

BTW.......Can someone tell me how to work the Quote function......Thanks, Bob

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Hi Bob,

Just click on the quote marks above your box. The quotations will show up in your text box. Then, just type or cut and paste your text right between the quotation marks!

Easy, right? crazy.gifsmile.gif </div></div>

Wayne

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> Just click on the quote marks above your box. The quotations will show up in your text box. Then, just type or cut and paste your text right between the quotation marks!

</div></div>

Wow! You da man, Wayne!

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Ron Green</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

I think we are going to bag our trip to Florida we were planning in March. Towing an enclosed trailer and a car down and back will be close to a $1,000 in gas. </div></div>

Ron, you have to trade that gas guzzler for a diesel.

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I'd have a diesel if I didn't get this for pennies on the dollar from someone who needed to unload it ASAP.

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Zondac12, That's the spirit! I completly agree! Many people on here do not realise that they spend money in other areas, which are completly unecessary! (some people here have r.v's, etc. that they use) I say drive your cars, and they are not that bad on gas! My '41 gets 20/22 miles a gallon! Better than most of the new cars that people own on the forum!

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Oh well there's plenty of stuff that actually IS more important ya know food shelter etc that will have less spent on it laugh.gif

But seriously yea I COULDNT let it make my hobby be shelved at all. Just WAY too much fun. Good to hear about the Dodge there, I think my Buick with the extra 2 cylinders gets like 12 mpg :D, the '87 cougar like 18-ish overall (mostly around town pretty much no highway) so yer gettin off easy pal!!! But ahh do lub them eights I'm certainly not complainin' grin.gif

Actually I probably put 2000-3000 miles a year on the Cougar, it's the daily car, and of course well under 1k a year on the Buick. Thats how I get away with two gas PIGS. I just don't drive enough LOL.

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I say drive your cars, and they are not that bad on gas! My '41 gets 20/22 miles a gallon! </div></div>

This is the other thing I was anticpating, the eventual slow death of the trailer queen. It definitely could make for a superficially less impressive field at national shows, at least among those cars that are still viable (however marginally) for interstate travel. That's not all bad however....

...I think most people, when looking at 2 identical cars--one that's perfect and been trailered 1000 miles and another that started out that way when it left home on its own 1000 miles ago, are more impressed by the driven one. At least I feel happier standing next to an old flathead 6 that's just been through a rite of passage getting there that no trailered car knows, and I don't think I'm alone. Also a 20 mpg ride in a DeSoto sounds more interesting to me, <span style="text-decoration: underline">and</span> more financially viable, than a 12 mpg tow rig ride. smile.gif

Besides I still believe that the hobby dies when people stop driving their cars, not when the cars cease to exist! cool.gif

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Sorry Dave, but as much as I love my 1929 Model A Ford Phaeton, I think I will have to keep the tow vehicle and trailer to go to out of state shows.

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I'll be practicing the art of deluded myself this summer.

I think gas will go to $4.25 per gal this summer. However I want to go to the BCA National Meet in Flint so I am figuring the gas will go to $5.25 per gallon and building my trip budget around the gas needed to get there and back at that price. Then if the gas winds up at $4.25 per gallon I'll feel like I'm getting away with murder. And I'm hoping I'm wrong on both counts and the gas remains or drops from the current $3.53 for high test, that they are charging today.

The summer after this I may lay up one of my cars for good and finally try a real restoration.

JD

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I have a dog in this fight.

See that car?

<----------

Edit: Oops, where's my car?

edit again. There it is. laugh.gif

That's my dog. (26 Chevy roadster) It gets 12 mpg. I have nursed 13 out of it but barely. It's not a show car nor will it ever be as long as I'm responsible for the money spent on it. I bought it to drive it and drive it I shall. I don't have to drive it far to enjoy it. I generally only drive it on weekends. Gas is gonna have to get VERY expensive before my dog quits waggin its tail.

I suspect that there are quite a few folks out there who feel exactly as I do.

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'This is the other thing I was anticpating, the eventual slow death of the trailer queen. It definitely could make for a superficially less impressive field at national shows, at least among those cars that are still viable (however marginally) for interstate travel. That's not all bad however....'

Well, it will be good when this happens it will get rid of those fru fru Pebble Beach types at the local shows that think that a car is a status symbol instead of a symbol of enjoyment. As for the less impressive part, I would rather have 10 cars in #4 condition that I can sit in and see and touch with die hard car guys who know what they are talking about (like many of us!) than 10 guys with #1 condition cars that are there and don't know a thing about their car, Don't want you to get within 20 ft. of it and the only thing that they know about the car is that they spent 100 grand on it! By the way, if any of you have a trailer queen I will take it and drive it! (don't die of a heart attack!)

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