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Dave@Moon

$100/barrel. What will it do?

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This morning, briefly, oil finally breached $100 per barrel. As I type this about an hour later it's dropped back to about $99.40. This translates to $2.40 per gallon at the well head <span style="text-decoration: underline">before</span> refining/distribution/marketing/transportation/etc. frown.gif

Two years ago there was a thread speculating on how $3 gasoline would effect hobby use of our cars. We're now looking at <span style="text-decoration: underline">likely <span style="font-style: italic">average</span></span> fuel prices of $5 per gallon this summer. Regionally higher prices will, of course, ensue as well.

I recently traded my 12 mpg Buick for a 25 mpg Triumph <span style="text-decoration: underline">in part</span> because of this possibility. How will it effect your plans?

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Gas at a local station yesterday was 3.15/9 today that same station has gas at 3.24/9 If the price of oil gos up the price of gas gos up befor the refinery gets the oil,but if the price of oil gos down a buck it takes three weeks befor the price of gas drops 2cents. How come??

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Actually when gasoline first breached $3 per gallon oil was selling for about $50 a barrel. The $90+ a barrel costs of the last few months have yet to reach the market.

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Won't affect my antique car plans.

I doubt that I drive much over 2500 miles a year total with my cars. At 14 miles per gallon average, I'd have to pay an extra $357.00 a year, if gas goes up another $2.00 a gallon. Cheap for a hobby. I know friends who spend more money on alcohol and cigarettes in a year's time. Not to even mention the girlfriends. eek.gifcool.gif

Whoops, their girlfriends! wink.gif

Wayne

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Higher fuel prices are unlikely to impact my "Sunday Morning Drives" in my antique cars. It will continue to motivate me to use my most fuel efficient vehicle for the majority of my work and pleasure driving.

I will probably think extra hard when it comes to trips involving towing a vehicle to AACA and Non-AACA car events.

Last year I made the trip from Eastern PA to the Grand National at Kalamazoo, Michigan.

Turned out my fuel costs were 2.5 times the cost of my lodging.

Interesting to see the "regional" costs of fuel. The fuel on the Ohio Turnpike was about the same price as I paid at home.

The PA Turnpike fuel and the fuel in Michigan (most expensive of all) was higher.

Already know I will not be going to the Dual Meet in Florida in March.

Unfortunately, distance (will not have a co-pilot like Kalamazoo) and weather concerns (it snows in March in the Northeast)

have made that a trip I will be skipping this year.

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No effect on me, haven't had the Model T or Model A on the road in 10 years, if I ever get the kids college educations paid off I might think about it. GOOD NEWS for eBay sales, and other internet related hobby sites.

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Dave Im not sure I needed to know the 90+$ cost hasnt reached the pumps yet. Like the bol weavel said, you better sell that old machine wont be long we cant afford gasoline

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">if the price of oil goes down a buck it takes three weeks before the price of gas drops 2 cents. How come?? </div></div>Dick, from what I've been told by the local gas distributers that I know, New York State doesn't allow the gas stations to change their prices until their next load of gas comes in. In simpler terms, if they have gas in the tank that they paid the high price for, they're going to charge what they paid for the gas unless the station owner decides to sell the gas at a loss.

On the flip side, if oil went up to $200 a barrel, these same station owners can't legally raise their fuel prices until they get their next shipment of gas.

It may not sound right, but that's what I've been told that New York State requires. With that in mind, that's why you'll see gas prices at one or two gas stations that will be way higher or way lower because they either haven't sold off their old gas, or taken delivery of the new gas before the price can be reflected at the pump.

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I don't see what the cost of gas means to a person who spends 3 times the dollars on a older car, that has 1/3 of the luxurey of a new car, and drives it 1/30 of the time!

I filled the tank on my 32 Ford once last year and still have some left.

Roger

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There you go Roger.

If you enjoy the hobby, you continue to enjoy it, regardless the cost. If it's hurting your pocketbook, you skip going to WalMart a couple weekends. Geez, the Europeans have had high fuel prices like forever. I understand there are still a lot of expensive gas burning sports cars running around their parts! smile.gif

Wayne

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I will use the Metropolitans a little more than the Buick, but it won't stop me from driving it completly. If you don't spend it on gas, you'll spend it eleswhere.

My health care just went from $122.00 per week to $145.00. Is this going to stop me from enjoying my cars, I doubt it.

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> My health care just went from $122.00 per week to $145.00. Is this going to stop me from enjoying my cars, I doubt it. </div></div>

No, but it might keep you from getting that colonoscopy you've been hoping for.

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The price you pay at the pump isn't based on the cost of the stuff in the ground, it's based on its <span style="font-style: italic">replacement</span> cost. It's a guessing game, but if they think the price of their next load of gas is going to go up, they raise prices. Someone in the Middle East sneezes, prices go up. Pakistan melting down and unrest in Kenya are going to contribute to this in a big way.

And of course, since nobody actually <span style="font-style: italic">lowers</span> prices, they all tend to stay pretty much at the same level, inching up incrementally now and again. This is one of those times, just like when it went from $2.75 to $3.00.

The $90/barrel oil technically hasn't reached market yet, but prices are reflecting its presence already. Gas prices based on today's costs are what you'll be paying in the next few weeks as retailers try to compensate for increasing costs of purchasing gas.

THis won't curtail my hobby driving, but it'll definitely make me more thrifty with daily driving, shopping and other trips in my daily life.

Me? I'm going to buy some oil stocks. If you can't beat them, join them. The dividends might offset the costs enough to make my fuel less expensive overall.

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Matt Harwood</div><div class="ubbcode-body">The $90/barrel oil technically hasn't reached market yet, but prices are reflecting its presence already. Gas prices based on today's costs are what you'll be paying in the next few weeks as retailers try to compensate for increasing costs of purchasing gas.

</div></div>

The evening network news reported that prices at the pump will rise to $4/gallon by early to mid-february.

One has to wonder if this gas price forecast will be any more accurate than a weather forecast.

TIme will tell I suppose.

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> Even at $4 a gallon at the pump we are not paying that much more for gas than we did in the 1970s.

</div></div>

$4/gal in 2006 equates to $1.01/gal in 1975. $5/gal (the figure most experts expect over Memorial Day weekend) equates to $1.27 in 1975.

The nationwide panic from the 1974 oil embargo resulted from gas that cost 50 to 60 cents a gallon, about 1/2 of what's expected this year (adjusted for inflation). Lest anyone believe that we've compensated for those days with higher fuel economy, on average it is virtually no different today than it was in 1979 and only slightly better than it was in 1974 (<span style="font-style: italic">mainly due to SUV and truck growth</span>).

Now is certainly not a time to panic, but it is a time to plan for contingencies.

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While comparing the cost of an item today to 20-30 years ago (adjusted for inflation) gives one perspective for the most part the comparison is meaningless to many people.

In the area where I live property taxes rise 10-14% most years. Electricity, natural gas, water and a lot of other goods and services have been rising 5%+ a year.

The cost of food has been rising 5-10% in the last year or two. Last time I checked the cost of healthcare was rising faster than the property taxes.

When one totals up all those increases in the cost of living and compares that to little, if any, rise in wages that provides a different view.

I agree now is not the time for panic. Problem is, after finding alternatives to deal with this senario for the last few years finding new contingencies is not as easy as it once was.

FYI, the percentages I use above are real world, actual increases not the numbers that come from the government.

The cost of living numbers from the government seldom appear to be accurate when compared against the real world.

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I've made some non-automotive adjustments that kind-of offset the increased gas prices. In my new house (if an 1850 house can be considered "new"), I've spent a considerable amount on insulation (roof and walls), installed new triple-pane windows, a new high-efficiency furnace and radiant-floor heating, in addition to a powerful wood-burning stove with a blower.

All that stuff probably cost $10K, but will pay for itself in about 6 years and is permanent. After 6 years, it's all cake. I also got a tax credit for it, plus the interest on the home equity that paid for it is 100% tax-deductible. And my monthly expenses, which definitely help the energy budget, will be far less (last year my gas bill averaged ~$450/month December-March, and about $250 in November & April).

My gas bill is about $100/month now no matter how cold it gets. This is for a 2600 square-foot house that's largely a ranch style (only 1 bedroom and a small bath on the 2nd floor). Whenever that woodburner is running, the furnace is off and my house is still 68-70 degrees. The wood that goes into the woodburner is free: whenever I see a tree by the side of the road that has been taken down and cut up, I get the Dodge out and grab as much as I can carry. I spent the long Christmas weekend chopping about 10 tons of oak and maple and probably have enough to get through most of next winter running that woodburner full-time.

I suppose what I'm saving on natural gas in my home will go into the fuel tanks of my vehicles.

Nevertheless, $4/gallon is scary as hell when your gas tank holds 35 gallons.

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Dodge 2500, 4x4, extended cab, long bed. 10 MPG empty or full, but hauls anything I throw at it, no questions asked.

Fortunately, it isn't my daily driver, although that particular vehicle only averages ~20 MPG and holds about 20 gallons...

/shakes fist at twin turbos

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7169543.stm

The real culprits.

I just checked the insurance miles on the 5 old ones and two were driven less than 1100 miles combined in 2007, and the other three weren't driven at all. So my gross polluter carbon footprint there is negligible.

I drive the K-car (30 mpg) 65 miles roundtrip to work, and the truck and station wagon (~16 mpg) when necessary.

Needless to say, tired of being preached at when speculators and oil futures traders are squarely behind current oil prices.

Neither do I remember paying $1.00 or more for a gallon of gasoline in 1975. Inflation or no, it's taking a lot bigger chunk out of my paycheck now than it did then, and the cars I drive daily now get roughly the same mpg as those I drove daily then. I don't drive as much now as then either.

And oil industry windfall profits continue, and futures traders become wealthier, at the expense of everyday Americans.

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I love this "Adjusted for inflation" talk, who the he$$ is getting raises?

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<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ted sweet</div><div class="ubbcode-body">question is when will inflation take off? </div></div>

Good question.

Interesting article in this morning's NY Times about the President considering an "Economic Stimulus Package" and how that signals the administration's growing concern over an economic recession.

BTW, here in my area the cost of gasoline has risen 14 cents a gallon in the last two days. Have to wonder if

it will rise even more while I am at work today.

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