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Can SEMA or anyone else clarify this?


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An article just posted in the "Automotive Legislation" quotes: 

 

"Washington is among the growing number of states limiting or banning ICEs to combat environmental pollution and establish a sustainable future. According to the policy, after 2035, car dealerships in Washington will only be able to sell new electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, you can still own a used gas-powered car until the law is enacted 100%."

 

Is there now a movement afoot not only to stop selling ICEs, but prohibiting their ownership (hence use)? If anyone has information that can explain or clarify the sentence printed in bold above, please do so before I sell my gas powered cars and start riding the bus.

 

 

 

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The sky is not falling! Think about the gun lobby and how it influences government decisions. People with ICE vehicles will kick up merry hell. New sales - yes but an outright ban on ownership? Tell 'em they're dreaming

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3 minutes ago, Fordy said:

The sky is not falling!

You’ll not be able to buy the automobile of your choice in 11 years, and the sky isn’t falling?

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31 minutes ago, Fordy said:

The sky is not falling! Think about the gun lobby and how it influences government decisions. People with ICE vehicles will kick up merry hell. New sales - yes but an outright ban on ownership? Tell 'em they're dreaming

Umm..

 

Perhaps "down under" the sky isn't falling, YET.

 

Reality is this IS a "phased" out of ICE and "phased" in of EV only approach

 

2035 is the beginning of ICE only based vehicles being banned in many US states by artificially forcing the ceasing of production and sales of ICE only vehicles, which basically means no more factory new ICE only based vehicles can be sold.

 

This will eventually lead to an all out ICE only based vehicles usage ban in the future, while no dates have been publically announced, I guarantee that IS the overall "plan" of folks who are all in on the idea that ICE only vehicles are the "bad guy"..

 

Sadly, a lot of misdirection fueled by seriously flawed science and data that is being used by the few in power to reduce the lesser "common man" back to walking, biking or horse and buggy as automobiles as affordable means of getting around will no longer be affordable.. That is the plan..

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I thought I heard recently that the fed gov eased up on the 2035 date, stating it was not realistic. 

 

Now, that we have re-hashed the Electric vs. ICE thread for the upteenth time..............................................................................................................

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Not to worry. We can smuggle gasoline in from Canada and Mexico and drive our cars late at night with extra heavy duty mufflers or white noise sound suppressors, and attach Tesla stickers to disguise the fact that it's an ICE and not electric. Maybe there will be fake light weight battery packs that can fit in the trunk or backseat to fool the constabulary.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Fordy said:

The sky is not falling! Think about the gun lobby and how it influences government decisions. People with ICE vehicles will kick up merry hell. New sales - yes but an outright ban on ownership? Tell 'em they're dreaming

 

Well...the powers that be are slowly chipping away at the gun lobby, probably the strongest lobby in the country. SEMA is a much smaller, less well known and funded organization spread over many diverse automotive causes and. to my knowledge, has not taken a vociferous stand on the EV vs. ICE controversy. Automakers and most governments are certainly embracing EVs.

With the proliferation of EV's, significant changes will happen other than changes to the supply of petroleum products. Think of the various mechanical parts that are common ICE parts now and are supplied by distributors and retailers throughout the world. Starters, alternators, fuel system parts, mufflers and catalytic converters, and many, many more components. These businesses, from the manufacturers down to your local auto supply and mechanic will face serious and crucial changes.

Gas stations are presently adding or converting to EV charging stations and chargers are popping up in shopping malls, hotel parking lots, and, I kid you not, at my public library!

As demand for gas goes down, the petroleum producing countries will, as we see now, continue to raise prices to maintain their income levels. If gas prices are difficult now, what will they be after 2035? For example, if ammunition is limited or unavailable, guns are less effective. If petroleum produces are restricted or eliminated, ICEs are useless. This may never happen in our generation or even the next one or two, but the handwriting is on the wall. Kicking up "merry hell" may not turn the tide.

I'm not a doomsayer and the sky is not falling, but momentous changes are on the way. We can join hands to try to modify or delay them, begrudge, or accept them, but not ignore them. History is full of examples where impending changes were ignored, be them weather related, music/media related, war related, technical or political, and the results were disastrous to more than a few.

The best preparation for change is knowledge and flexibility.

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4 hours ago, Crusty Trucker said:

An article just posted in the "Automotive Legislation" quotes: 

 

"Washington is among the growing number of states limiting or banning ICEs to combat environmental pollution and establish a sustainable future. According to the policy, after 2035, car dealerships in Washington will only be able to sell new electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, you can still own a used gas-powered car until the law is enacted 100%."

 

Is there now a movement afoot not only to stop selling ICEs, but prohibiting their ownership (hence use)? If anyone has information that can explain or clarify the sentence printed in bold above, please do so before I sell my gas powered cars and start riding the bus.

 

 

 

This is more MSN nonsense. From the Washington State Dept. of Ecology...

 

"Do I have to start driving in EV?

 

Switching to an EV isn’t mandatory. Even with ZEV standards going into effect, you can keep driving gas-powered vehicles if you choose. The standards apply to car manufacturers, not drivers. And they only apply to new vehicle sales within our state—used vehicles are exempt. 

This may sound counterintuitive, but the jump in EV sales is actually good news for those who aren’t ready to part with their internal combustion car or truck just yet. That’s because fewer cars lined up at the gas pump reduces demand for gasoline, putting downward pressure on prices. Those effects may be hard to see now, since the roughly 175,000 EVs and plug-ins currently on Washington’s roads make up just 3% of all vehicles in the state. But market pressures will grow with as that figure increases."

 

1 hour ago, Reynard said:

As demand for gas goes down, the petroleum producing countries will, as we see now, continue to raise prices to maintain their income levels. If gas prices are difficult now, what will they be after 2035? For example, if ammunition is limited or unavailable, guns are less effective. If petroleum produces are restricted or eliminated, ICEs are useless. This may never happen in our generation or even the next one or two, but the handwriting is on the wall. Kicking up "merry hell" may not turn the tide.

That's not how economics work. Oil is a commodity. Oil producing countries don't set prices, the market does. They can cut production to raise prices now because demand is high. As demand decreases, they will need to cut prices to sell the same amount of oil. It's the fundamental law of supply and demand.

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, SteveMaz said:

That’s because fewer cars lined up at the gas pump reduces demand for gasoline, putting downward pressure on prices.

Gas demand is already decreasing with 1,200,000 Evs already on the road in California and 3.3 million in the USA, and nearly 10 million world wide. Where do you see gas prices going down or production increasing to meet the "nonexistent" demand. Producers are squeezing the supply hose to keep the billions in petro-dollars flowing. It's a loosing game. Time will tell.

 

Where's the breaking point in prices?  ...$10,00  ...$20.00   ,,,$25.00/gallon?

At what point will you be happy to have an EV?


Current gas prices in Canada average just under $6.00./US gallon

Current gas prices in Europe average about $8.00./US gallon

 

Edited by Reynard (see edit history)
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14 minutes ago, Reynard said:

Gas demand is already decreasing with 1,200,000 Evs already on the road in California and 3.3 million in the USA, and nearly 10 million world wide. Where do you see gas prices going down or production increasing to meet the "nonexistent" demand.

Not true at all. Gasoline demand has been going up for several years. From Reuters...

Consultancy Rystad Energy pegs global gasoline demand at about 26 million bpd in 2024, up about 300,000 bpd from growth of about 700,000 bpd in 2023, fuelled by the consumption boom after the pandemic.

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47 minutes ago, SteveMaz said:

Switching to an EV isn’t mandatory. Even with ZEV standards going into effect, you can keep driving gas-powered vehicles if you choose. The standards apply to car manufacturers, not drivers. And they only apply to new vehicle sales within our state—used vehicles are exempt. 

OK..

 

So, what do you think is going to happen in 5-10 yrs AFTER the 2035 mandate?

 

Your going to have bunches of aged out beatup, worn out ICE vehicles with nearly zero parts support and no new ICE vehicles to buy.. Technically manufacturers are supposed to provide parts support for 10 yrs after the model has been sunsetted.. After that time period parts suppliers will lose those parts once the supply line runs dry..

 

Aftermarket parts suppliers could fill in the gap, but keep in mind, the good old supply and demand will most likely cause after market parts to be prohibitively expensive..

 

Most likely even see a huge spike in used running ICE vehicles prices as people get squeezed out of being able to afford new EVs.. But there will be only so much used inventory in good enough condition to resell as the vehicles age out.

 

So, anyone who totally believes that the end results will not effectively ban all ICE powered vehicles are in complete denial. It is known as "planned obsolescence" ICE are being phased out, period, that is the end goal..

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5 minutes ago, SteveMaz said:

Not true at all. Gasoline demand has been going up for several years. From Reuters...

Consultancy Rystad Energy pegs global gasoline demand at about 26 million bpd in 2024, up about 300,000 bpd from growth of about 700,000 bpd in 2023, fuelled by the consumption boom after the pandemic.

 

Unless there's a reliability factor here or fake news, please note this article from Reuters:

Gasoline demand growth to slow this year on EV growth in China, U.S.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gasoline-demand-growth-slow-this-year-ev-growth-china-us-2024-05-06/#:~:text=Consultancy Rystad Energy pegs global,pandemic%2C said analyst Mukesh Sahdev.

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4 minutes ago, Reynard said:

 

Unless there's a reliability factor here or fake news, please note this article from Reuters:

Gasoline demand growth to slow this year on EV growth in China, U.S.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gasoline-demand-growth-slow-this-year-ev-growth-china-us-2024-05-06/#:~:text=Consultancy Rystad Energy pegs global,pandemic%2C said analyst Mukesh Sahdev.

Growth slowing is not a decrease, its a smaller increase.

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38 minutes ago, CarNucopia said:

Growth slowing is not a decrease, its a smaller increase.

Isn't the English language amazing! You can use so many words to say the same thing and use them again to say the opposite.

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Studemax said:

Move to a red state.

Green vehicles are a dead end. 

Ignoring reality by putting your "head in the sand" only works long enough until you suffocate.

 

Eventually even red states will be forced to throw the white flag in the air due to either the manufacturers not having enough volume of sales in those states to make keeping ICE in their portfolio and/or the right to build ICE gets taken away at the Fed level. By hook or crook it is a done deal unless people wake up to reality and start pushing back the nonsense soon.

 

History tells us that what happens with vehicles in just ONE state, the result eventually ends up happening to ALL States.

 

Remember back when CA "CARB" became a "thing" (a board of non elected people making rules and regulations with no representation by the people of that State) , it is the reason why for many yrs there were TWO versions of ICE vehicles, one for CA ONLY which were CA "CARB" compliant and then we had Non CA "CARB" compliant that could only be sold in the other 49 states.. Other states one by one started to adopt those stringent CA "CARB" regulations. Vehicle manufacturers eventually were forced to make and sell CA "CARB" compliant vehicles to all 50 states as it wasn't cost effective to build one version for a handful of States and another version for the rest..

 

As far as green vehicles goes, that is a "red herring" to misdirect and misguide well intentioned people..

 

"We the People" are being fleeced..

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15 hours ago, Crusty Trucker said:

An article just posted in the "Automotive Legislation" quotes: 

 

"Washington is among the growing number of states limiting or banning ICEs to combat environmental pollution and establish a sustainable future. According to the policy, after 2035, car dealerships in Washington will only be able to sell new electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, you can still own a used gas-powered car until the law is enacted 100%."

 

Is there now a movement afoot not only to stop selling ICEs, but prohibiting their ownership (hence use)? If anyone has information that can explain or clarify the sentence printed in bold above, please do so before I sell my gas powered cars and start riding the bus.

 

 

 

Did you actually READ the articles in the links you posted???

 

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10 hours ago, ABear said:

So, what do you think is going to happen in 5-10 yrs AFTER the 2035 mandate?

 

Your going to have bunches of aged out beatup, worn out ICE vehicles with nearly zero parts support and no new ICE vehicles to buy.. Technically manufacturers are supposed to provide parts support for 10 yrs after the model has been sunsetted.. After that time period parts suppliers will lose those parts once the supply line runs dry..

 

My 1962 Buick was sunsetted in 1963. Relatively low production, unique and not hugely popular model. Don't really have much problem finding parts 60 years later. I suspect the vast majority of people will not care less what's under the hood of their car as long as it goes from point A to point B. There will always be those that will resist change to the bitter end.

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10 hours ago, Reynard said:

Isn't the English language amazing! You can use so many words to say the same thing and use them again to say the opposite.

  10 hours ago, CarNucopia said:

Growth slowing is not a decrease, its a smaller increase.

 

They are taking lessons from the federal government where budget reductions means less of an increase.???

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51 minutes ago, SteveMaz said:

My 1962 Buick was sunsetted in 1963. Relatively low production, unique and not hugely popular model. Don't really have much problem finding parts 60 years later. I suspect the vast majority of people will not care less what's under the hood of their car as long as it goes from point A to point B. There will always be those that will resist change to the bitter end.

You are looking at vehicles from a "hobbyist" POV, not from a non hobbyist POV who is trudging to work every day and needs a dependable vehicle that isn't constantly needing repairs and parts..

 

Huge difference between the two POVs.

 

Hobbyist car collectors who are daily driving their ICE vehicles putting 12K-15K miles per yr on their vehicles are very few and far between and most likely the quantity of those vehicles being driven that much would be on the order of less than .0001% of the total volume of ICE vehicles on the road today.

 

Ask yourself this, would I be willing to drive my 73 yr old (1962 car in 2035) back and forth to work 100 or more miles every week day to earn a paycheck?

 

That is about 20K miles per yr just for earning a paycheck and it is reality for many.

 

Your car was designed and built in the days were warranties were non exisistant, basically 1 yr or 12K miles which ever came first and autos at that time were considered as junk once they reached 75K-80K and driving them 100K miles was not considered "normal" (take a hard look at your Odometer as it only registers 99,999.9 miles).

 

I sure would not even consider such a preposterous idea as that, it is not realistic to do so.

 

I faced that same issue well over 25 yrs ago when I landed a much better paying job in the next county to me. I was forced to retire my trusty 1970s car with 297,000 miles and buy a brand new vehicle to ensure I was not dealing with constant break downs that happens when you are dealing with worn out cars. I could deal with constant repairs when I was working local within 15 minutes of home, but not so much when the job was an hr or more away.

 

The EV mandates are for the working folks that require a more reliable method of getting to and from work, many of these people are non mechanics and couldn't determine which end of a screw driver to use.

 

What irritates me is how getting rid of R12 and R22 was going to "fix" the environment, that did nothing but drive up costs of anything refrigerated. That failed so now we make the "carbon" thing an issue, folks we are talking about something that only makes up .044% of the earths atmosphere and they want to get it to .040%.. Every living creature AND plants depend on that .044% to be present in the atmosphere, reducing that could potentially cause a reduction in animal and plant life.. Not to mention if we do not extract gas and oil, it WILL come out on it's own as it did well before man found a way to extract it and capture it.

 

Man also depends on oil and gas for pretty much every single thing in our life, many life saving break throughs in medicine are actually from carbon fractions feedstock which comes from refining and cracking natural gas and crude oil processes. If you have no need for gasoline or diesel fuels you will now create large quantities of unusable by products..

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1 hour ago, ABear said:

Ask yourself this, would I be willing to drive my 73 yr old (1962 car in 2035) back and forth to work 100 or more miles every week day to earn a paycheck?

 

That is about 20K miles per yr just for earning a paycheck and it is reality for many.

Few people live 100 miles from their workplace. And to answer your question, yes. I just bought a 1969 car to use as a daily driver, replacing my 1985 car. I have zero qualms about driving it anywhere.

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3 minutes ago, joe_padavano said:

Few people live 100 miles from their workplace. And to answer your question, yes. I just bought a 1969 car to use as a daily driver, replacing my 1985 car. I have zero qualms about driving it anywhere.

Yes, but you know how to fix it which makes a world of difference.  Today not many do or want to learn as the modern car requires support equipment that goes beyond a collection of hand tools.  The attraction to a simple, easy to understand car is what keeps people with limited car knowledge willing to tinker with them and decide to own one.  The Ford Model A is a prime example of an easy to understand vehicle yet its workings can befuddle a novice owner.  People like you and many others on the forum bring a wealth of knowledge to people who use this form to gain information about problems they encounter.  As the supply of replacement parts dwindle and knowledgable people go to the big garage in the sky, the desire to own an ancient car may decrease.  

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4 minutes ago, joe_padavano said:

Few people live 100 miles from their workplace. And to answer your question, yes. I just bought a 1969 car to use as a daily driver, replacing my 1985 car. I have zero qualms about driving it anywhere.

100 miles as in 50 mile each way.

 

And YES, there are more people who DO drive that type of commute every single day that you think there are.

 

Where I live is within 60 miles of one State border to the west, 90 miles from a State boarder to the south, basically 3 separate states "share" the western and southern  border of my State. My County is a rural county and most of the jobs in my county are on the western/southern end of my county.. I happen to be on the OPPOSITE eastern side of my County..

 

I have driven most of the eastern States from VT to Florida and I can tell you this, there are plenty of wide open areas where there is very little small towns and small businesses, most small businesses can't afford to pay higher wages than bigger businesses.. I was lucky and fortunate to land a job in a division of a company which is in the top 20 of the "Fortune 500" companies. That move allowed me to retire at age 55 in just 22 yrs. That Fortune 500 company was headquartered in San Fransisco by the way..

 

I hear that many jobs in places like Los Angeles that commuting 100 miles each way and spending several hrs on the road each way is pretty much normal routine as the cost of housing is so expensive near LA..

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I seem to recall having these discussions before...and before that...and since then. 

Terry

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56 minutes ago, TerryB said:

Yes, but you know how to fix it which makes a world of difference.  Today not many do or want to learn as the modern car requires support equipment that goes beyond a collection of hand tools.  The attraction to a simple, easy to understand car is what keeps people with limited car knowledge willing to tinker with them and decide to own one.

TerryB sums this up nicely, not everyone has the same level of expertise, tools, knowledge and time as you or any other car hobbyist to continually rehab vehicles driven on a daily commute. Those ARE the folks the EV mandates address at this time, the hobbyist side will get kicked down the road at a later time sort of like the "cash for clunkers" program.

 

And personally, myself, a vehicle driven in the rust belt like were I live has a 10yr-12yr life span before the salt laden winter roads rot out the frames and bodies.. Best I have done was a 2003 F250, but after 17 yrs the frame and body was badly rusted, I replaced the bed wheel well sheet metal both sides, replaced trhee of the bed floor mounts, the rear cab corners needed replace, the drivers door was completely rotted out on the inside of the door and it had 250K miles on it..

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For those of you that get the Wall Street Journal, In today's paper in case you missed it commutes are getting longer.

 

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/workplace/americas-commute-to-work-is-getting-longer-and-longer-0fbf79c3?mod=wknd_pos1

 

Headlines for the article and a couple of sentences of the article.

 

America’s Commute to Work Is Getting Longer and Longer

Drives to the office that take over an hour are becoming more common—and even more palatable

By Anne Marie Chaker

June 3, 2024 9:00 pm ET
The American worker is making peace with a longer ride.

Big shifts in the way people live and work are making commutes of over an hour into the office more common—and even more palatable. Rising housing costs have prompted many to move farther away from city centers, while the staying power of hybrid work means they don’t have to drive into work every day. 

The share of super commutes—those 75 miles or longer—have grown the most and are up by nearly a third since 2020, according to new research from Stanford University. 

 

And the story continues.

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15 minutes ago, Brass is Best said:

Be VERY VERY VERY careful who you vote for. There are groups who want to take away your car and everything else you own.

And tax it to oblivion.  

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2 minutes ago, Terry Bond said:

And tax it to oblivion.  

For fear of pushing this further off topic I will try to step carefully on the eggs..

 

Fair chance you won't get paid directly from the employer, the employer will pay your "uncle" your wage and instead you will get a "stipend" to live off from your "uncle" as this is the model that some of those in power are working to get to.. You won't "own" anything, you will live in mass colonies and you will take mass transportation..

 

As it is, there has been massive increases in dumping large sums of money into expanding mass transportation in the county south of me.. Absolutely no mass transportation system has ever turned a profit, they lose money and it isn't small amounts.. The mass transportation riders couldn't afford to pay the actual costs to operate the systems so the prices are artificially kept low.. A lot of our gas taxes actually end up being spent to maintain and operate mass transportation systems in two of the large metro areas in my State instead of being used for maintaining and expanding roads.

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22 hours ago, Crusty Trucker said:

An article just posted in the "Automotive Legislation" quotes: 

 

"Washington is among the growing number of states limiting or banning ICEs to combat environmental pollution and establish a sustainable future. According to the policy, after 2035, car dealerships in Washington will only be able to sell new electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, you can still own a used gas-powered car until the law is enacted 100%."

 

Is there now a movement afoot not only to stop selling ICEs, but prohibiting their ownership (hence use)? If anyone has information that can explain or clarify the sentence printed in bold above, please do so before I sell my gas powered cars and start riding the bus.

 

 

 

I'm guessing that post misquoted the legislation. There is an Executive Order signed by Governor Inslee that refers to GOVERNMENT vehicles (EO 21 04) that has them removed at the end of their useful life. I imagine that the vast majority of vehicles will reach that point far before the deadline. The law that relates to the general public is less stringent. You can read about it here https://www.opb.org/article/2022/12/20/oregon-washington-ban-gas-powered-vehicles-2035-joining-california/

but there are many other sources.

 

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Posted (edited)

Can SEMA or anyone else clarify this?

"Washington is among the growing number of states limiting or banning ICEs to combat environmental pollution and establish a sustainable future. According to the policy, after 2035, car dealerships in Washington will only be able to sell new electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, you can still own a used gas-powered car until the law is enacted 100%."

 

Which law and when will it be enacted?

 

Jeezz---   Sorry I asked.  Even those who know everything did not answer the question.

Edited by Crusty Trucker (see edit history)
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Posted (edited)

For once I'm glad I'm in my 80's.  Got all my ulcers and gray hair back in the 1980's and 90's. Don't need any more.

I'll let you whippersnappers with lots of ideas and energy grapple with this one.

I'll enjoy my ICE for now and smile in peace. I don't plan to see 2035 or worry about it's aftermath.🤗.

 

 

 

Edited by f.f.jones (see edit history)
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On 6/3/2024 at 2:31 PM, Crusty Trucker said:

An article just posted in the "Automotive Legislation" quotes: 

 

"Washington is among the growing number of states limiting or banning ICEs to combat environmental pollution and establish a sustainable future. According to the policy, after 2035, car dealerships in Washington will only be able to sell new electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, you can still own a used gas-powered car until the law is enacted 100%."

 

Is there now a movement afoot not only to stop selling ICEs, but prohibiting their ownership (hence use)? If anyone has information that can explain or clarify the sentence printed in bold above, please do so before I sell my gas powered cars and start riding the bus.

 

 

 

 

How about a link to the article or post to which you refer?  Would clarify things.

 

In my homework I only find a Washington State Governor Executive Order 21-04.  It DOES NOT state any such ban.

 

https://governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/exe_order/21-04 - Zero Emission Vehicles.pdf

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Remind me again, why is this in "Antique Car" focused forum and why should I care ? (Rhetorical questions, no reply needed)

 

If anything, by '35 (and beyond) I'll (hopefully) still be enjoying my "antique" cars and like today, will likely still have little to no concern or interest in "modern vehicles", i.e. appliances, regardless of their propulsion method. 

Besides, I'm certain we will see far more important problems facing our society and the world at large than bans or limitations on certain type of appliance propulsions or fire arms (and voting one way or another isn't going to change any of it).

 

 

Edited by TTR (see edit history)
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