Packard market values

[1935Packard]

On page 38 of the May 2013 issue of Hemmings, in a report on the Scottsdale 2013 RM Auction, Terry Shea writes about a 1938 Packard Twelve Convertible Sedan in "1-" condition that sold for a (relatively) quite low price of $138,000. Shea comments:

[C]uriously, values on these cars seem to be dropping. With prices doubling from $100,000 to $200,000 between 2003 and 2009, they are now headed back to Earth. The only question is how soft the landing will be.

I'm curious if others who follow the market for "these cars" has noticed the same drop in value. Is Shea accurately identifying a drop in the typical market value of such cars (which I assume means 1930s senior Packards, or at least late 30s senior Packards)? If so, how far has the market changed? And is the drop in the market related to particular years or body styles, or more across the board?

[Dave Mitchell]

I doubt that it was really a number 1 car, or if so, that it really sold, or there wasn't some factor that would explain why it sold so cheap without a reserve. I would not agree with his conclusion based on that one car. I actually have noticed that the 35 - 39 Twelves have been going up. A 36 coupe roadster that was definitely between a 2 and 3 recently sold for $340K. It will be interesting to see if that car also is reported as condition 1. The difference between a 1 and a 3 can be very expensive to make up. A year ago, a 36 12 coupe roadster that was a very nice, but not perfect (over 10+ year old restoration that had been driven) brought $420K. If a reporter doesn't know Packard 12s well, not to say that Terry Shea doesn't, it can be hard to tell if the car is correct, or even if the body has always been on a 12 chassis, but often the bidders know, or discount the cars if they aren't sure. I looked at a 38 12 coupe roadster a couple of years ago that sold for around $175K and was reported to be a #1 car. I looked at it closely and thought that with a complete engine and driveline rebuild it could be a good driver or a #3, to be a showcar or a real #1, it would need a total restoration. There are a couple of not so good 38 12 convertible sedans that have bounced around the market for the last 15 years and they have shown up regularly in auction reports, but I know that good ones that have sold privately have brought much more. I also know of 2 38 convertible sedans that sold in the past few years and were restored or are in the process of expensive major restorations, which would seem to indicate that their owners think they are worth it. If you look at some other earlier cars, I think you will still find that a really good 32 - 34 roadster (or other open car) will still hit $450 - 600 and a very nice one last year sold for $770. There have also been some 35/36 phaetons that have gone over the $600K mark, as well as custom cars. Also there was the barn find 33 conv victoria that sold for over $370K that needed a total restoration.

I will agree that prices in auction reports have come down in the last couple of years and part of that is certainly due to the fact that John O'Quinn passed away, and also that his estate is regularly selling cars for less than he paid for them. I don't believe that this is reflective of the real total market though. A lot of times the cars that are for sale for a long time or come up repeatedly at auction have serious problems - structural wood, mechanical, parts missing, or questionable history - or all the above; those cars are reported and drag the market down when they should be considered for what they are and graded accordingly, not by how shiny the paint is.

I think that a couple of things are also happening here - collectors are running through the cars that haven't already been restored and are looking for new projects, and also collectors are looking for cars that are easier and more reliable to drive - ie the 35 - 39 seniors. I have watched the popularity of Packards and 30+ years ago, it wasn't the 34 12 that was the most desireable car - it was the 28 443. Now you seldom even see a photo of a 443 at a show - then 29s and 30s and then the 32 - 34s, now it seems that the 35 - 39s are gaining ground.

[trimacar]

Great analysis, Dave, but of course I'd expect no less from you! I think you really nailed it with the "shiny paint" comment. At this point in time, there've been a lot of cars that have had drive trains swapped, bodies moved around, and so forth.

From a driving standpoint, it's hard to beat the Senior cars from the mid to late 30's. Good power, nice ride, and easy to steer and shift.

Also interesting comment on the 443. I bought a 443 coupe in the early 80's, very handsome car. Mine was excellent mechanically, although a little stiff to drive, wire wheels which were a nice touch, and OK cosmetics. Car was solid as a rock. Circumstance was such that I sold the car in the early 90's, and got a fair penny for it, with no advertising just word of mouth through a well connected antique car friend. Recently, I asked him where the car was now, and the answer was interesting to say the least. The fellow who bought it had a 443 roadster with nice cosmetics but the running gear was poor, so he switched the two bodies. The coupe then got sold to another person, who took the body off his 443 sedan and installed the coupe body, with the sedan body now on the poor running gear. Now, there are three "mismatched" cars out there!

The values on the 12's has sort of snuck up on me, didn't realize they were bringing the dollars you mention, but understand it.

[alsancle]

I agree with all the comments above. Always be careful to take a single auction "transaction" both high or low too seriously. There can be lots of factors in play, including a no-sale that may look like a sale.

[Dave Mitchell]

The no sale made to look like a sale happened to me. I was amazed. This was years ago. Before my car even came up, auction company reps were trying to get me to lift the reserve - very high pressure - and when my car was on the block, not selling, they said that I had lifted the reserve (I hadn't), ran imaginary bids up and hammered it sold. They brought me a piece of paper to sign (in full view of the crowd) which I refused to sign. The auction rep begged me to pretend to sign, saying that they had a deal going to sell it after the auction. There was no such deal, but several magazines reported the car as sold at the hammer price. Anyone who knew me, knew that I owned the car for a long time after, so it just made the auction company look bad, when I guess they were trying to pump up their sales report.

Years later when I sold a car through Gooding & Co, I was pleased with how professional they were and there was no pressure at all on me to lift my reserve and none of the foolishness I had experienced with other companies.

There are some cars at auction that are really nice cars and even number 1 condition cars, but there are others that aren't, and buyers discount those cars. The other factor is that sometimes a car is consigned to the wrong auction - selling a classic or brass car at an auction primarly for sports cars isn't a great idea, but some sellers just want to sell and move on, or they are selling several sports cars and the auction house takes all of the cars to get the ones they want.

I agree too that wildly high single sales may not mean more than two guys with a lot of money wanted the same car on that day. If just one hadn't been there, it could have brought half.

I agree with all the comments above. Always be careful to take a single auction "transaction" both high or low too seriously. There can be lots of factors in play, including a no-sale that may look like a sale.

[Dave Mitchell]

I look at a lot of cars for sale for different people, sometimes in person and sometimes just photos. I am amazed at how poorly restored a lot of cars are, even ones that are "professionally" restored. I can tell if a Packard has been restored by someone who knows what they are doing. When you see things painted the wrong color or chromed when they shouldn't be, you know that they didn't know what to do and didn't take the time to find out. Then you ask what other things did they cut corners on that you can't see, like steering, trans, brakes, rear axle, engine etc. The other thing is that there are collectors who don't want to drive the cars at all - all they have to do is get in and out of the trailer, onto the show field and over the ramp to get the trophy, and they may look absolutely perfect, but have little or nothing done to the mechanics. I know this is true, because I talk to the shops that have to fix them and/or the new owners that are not so happy.

I know a number of the best restorers in the country and I know some of the trends by what is being restored and I can also tell by what parts and advice people are looking for. To me it is obvious that there are more of the 35 - 39 seniors are being restored than in the past.

Dave - amazing story about the triple swap on the 443. There are a lot more body swap cars out there than people would guess. Sadly in years to come people won't know which ones were swapped. Sometimes the majority of open cars of certain types are swaps. I think I have seen more 745 open cars that are swaps than are original, and certainly a lot of 34 roadsters didn't start out as what they are - it is hard to find a 34 coupe. Likewise I have seen a lot more 40 - 42 Super 8 convertibles that used to be 110s or 120 than I have that you can prove always were 160s. I am suspect of any open V12 if you can't provide some history of it.

Dave packard12s@hotmail.com

Great analysis, Dave, but of course I'd expect no less from you! I think you really nailed it with the "shiny paint" comment. At this point in time, there've been a lot of cars that have had drive trains swapped, bodies moved around, and so forth.

From a driving standpoint, it's hard to beat the Senior cars from the mid to late 30's. Good power, nice ride, and easy to steer and shift.

Also interesting comment on the 443. I bought a 443 coupe in the early 80's, very handsome car. Mine was excellent mechanically, although a little stiff to drive, wire wheels which were a nice touch, and OK cosmetics. Car was solid as a rock. Circumstance was such that I sold the car in the early 90's, and got a fair penny for it, with no advertising just word of mouth through a well connected antique car friend. Recently, I asked him where the car was now, and the answer was interesting to say the least. The fellow who bought it had a 443 roadster with nice cosmetics but the running gear was poor, so he switched the two bodies. The coupe then got sold to another person, who took the body off his 443 sedan and installed the coupe body, with the sedan body now on the poor running gear. Now, there are three "mismatched" cars out there!

The values on the 12's has sort of snuck up on me, didn't realize they were bringing the dollars you mention, but understand it.

[1935Packard]

Thanks for the fantastic comments. Dave Mitchell, your insights are very valuable, and I appreciate them. I have often found it frustrating to try to follow market values by relying on auction reports, such as those in Hemmings or Keith Martin's Sports Car Market. It's so hard to tell what is actually happening from the short description. It's particularly maddening when those two sources offer conflicting advice, such as when one will say that a particular auction price made a specific car "very well bought" and the other will say that the same car was "very well sold," or when one will say that the market it a particular kind of car or era is booming and the other will say it is declining. Or just as annoying, when a car described as a "3" will be described as well bought at twice the price of the same car (year and body style) described elsewhere as a "1". I guess the magazines can only tell you so much.

Dave Mitchell, if you ever start "Dave Mitchell's Packard Market Report," I will be sure to subscribe. :-)

Edited March 28, 2013 by 1935Packard (see edit history)

[alsancle]

Auction reports are slightly more worthwhile than price guides (which are worthless). Nobody can be an expert on every car in the market. I've seen comments on cars that I know personally in markets that I know intimately that were completely wrong. Also, I have a feeling that the comments are also tempered depending on who is buying or selling a particular car.

[1935Packard]

There are a lot more body swap cars out there than people would guess. Sadly in years to come people won't know which ones were swapped. Sometimes the majority of open cars of certain types are swaps. I think I have seen more 745 open cars that are swaps than are original, and certainly a lot of 34 roadsters didn't start out as what they are - it is hard to find a 34 coupe. Likewise I have seen a lot more 40 - 42 Super 8 convertibles that used to be 110s or 120 than I have that you can prove always were 160s. I am suspect of any open V12 if you can't provide some history of it.

Dave packard12s@hotmail.com

That's fascinating. I gather from the standpoint of market value that this puts a premium on cars with a known history, in that desirable cars without a known history will be tainted with the possibility of being a body swap car? If so, it's yet another reason to be a careful buyer: If you don't know the risks that a particular model and year was likely have been swapped, you might not realize the possibility that the car you are buying is discounted in the market.

[1935Packard]

Auction reports are slightly more worthwhile than price guides (which are worthless). Nobody can be an expert on every car in the market.

Yes, even the better price guides can be fantastically off. One example I noticed recently is Keith Martin's Sports Car Market price guide on the Porsche 356 Pre-A. I think that price guide usually is pretty good for the cars that it covers. But it lists a Pre-A coupe in good shape as around $50k, when they seem to be going for at least twice that, with the earlier cars in that range demanding a large premium over the rest.

[trimacar]

Well, let's just test a price guide. How about NADA for antique cars. OK, I've punched in Pierce Arrow, now let's go to 1938, the last year. What the heck, how about a convertible coupe, oh, they call it a convertible roadster, OK, there you go.

Hmmmm....interesting price....considering there's only one, and it's sitting (last I heard) in a very small and private collection in California....high retail value, $79,900....HUH? Car last sold around $300K at auction.....

Tell you what, if the owner of that car is reading this, I'll pay you the NADA high retail value, no problem.....

[Dave Mitchell]

A car with history, even just back to the 50s or 60s where at least someone reliable knows that the car is correct, or photos or some paperwork exists is definitely more valuable than one with no provenence. I know collectors who have gone to look at Packard 12s and found them or the documentation suspect and walked away, or offered far less than "market value". You can't rely on the clubs policing this because it honestly isn't their role, and secondly when they try it isn't applied fairly - prominent members may get a pass. One reason for this is that people who swap bodies around - aren't usually trying to get a better driving 443 as in the above example - they are doing it to make a profit or get an open 12 for less than market value. These usually aren't restored to the highest level since profit is the goal, which doesn't make them the most sought after cars either.

It is certainly a good idea to be a careful buyer. If I were to buy an early 30s Chrysler Imperial for instance, I wouldn't even consider it without talking to a friend of mine who knows which ones are real and which aren't. I know from my days on the CCCA classification committee that there are only a handful of those that are real. The real ones bring 2 - 3 times what the rebodied ones do. If I were new to the hobby I wouldn't buy an open Packard Super 8 or 12 without having someone who knows about them look at it. To me an original unrestored or older restoration or documented car is much more valuable and interesting. I like these cars for more than just the looks of them - I like the history - and I think a lot of people are like this, especially the younger collectors of classics. A body swap car usually has no history because the person who swapped it is trying to hide that fact, and these cars are more one dimensional. The story that comes with a car is a connection to the past and to an interesting era. My feeling is that the market usually rewards the more authentic cars.

That's fascinating. I gather from the standpoint of market value that this puts a premium on cars with a known history, in that desirable cars without a known history will be tainted with the possibility of being a body swap car? If so, it's yet another reason to be a careful buyer: If you don't know the risks that a particular model and year was likely have been swapped, you might not realize the possibility that the car you are buying is discounted in the market.

[Dave Mitchell]

I took a quick look at the photos of the 38 Packard 12 convertible sedan reported to be a #1 selling for $132K. I didn't see the car in person, but I think I might know the car. Things that I notice in the photos are: Wrong color on the water pump, armored coil cable and coil base; the end of the coil cable is wrong and it is routed incorrectly and all 3 of the clamps for it are missing. The voltage regulator is wrong, the distributor cover is from a 32 - 34, the top radiator hoses are wrong, the hose clamps wrong, the fuel line is wrong, the porceline on the exhaust manifold is shot, the rear bumper guards do not have the black circles painted on them and the front guards have neither the red hex or the black ring on them. The heater is the wrong year. The steering wheel has the wrong pattern on the plastic and the shift knob is wrong. The wipers are parked incorrectly. The rear foot rests may be special ordered, but I have never seen them on a Packard. The knobs are missing on the window cranks. The close up of the trunk rack shows that the paint could have been sanded and buffed a bit more. These are things I can see just from a few photos.Does this sound like a #1 car? Sadly people will look at that result and think it reflects the market for a #1 car.

[trimacar]

I believe it is very sound advice to have someone familiar with the particular cars advise you on how correct a car might be before purchase.

It's interesting to me that this applies mostly to high end Classics and lower end Model T Fords.

One should never buy an early T unless they're very familiar with them, or have someone look at car who knows T's. The variations and substituted later model and repop parts is incredible.

Normally, people don't spend the effort to rebody or try to replicate the "in between" cars. Who's going to chop the top of a '31 Chevy coupe, when it's easier to buy a roadster in the first place?

Edited March 29, 2013 by trimacar
grammar (see edit history)

[West Peterson]

... Also, I have a feeling that the comments are also tempered depending on who is buying or selling a particular car.

I once published the truth about a specific Stutz, and was immediately threatened with a lawsuit. So "tempered" comments... you can be sure exist. Several years later, it was largely accepted that I was correct, and even the auction companies modified their catalog description for the "well traveled" machine.

[West Peterson]

Well, let's just test a price guide. How about NADA for antique cars. OK, I've punched in Pierce Arrow, now let's go to 1938, the last year. What the heck, how about a convertible coupe, oh, they call it a convertible roadster, OK, there you go.

Hmmmm....interesting price....considering there's only one, and it's sitting (last I heard) in a very small and private collection in California....high retail value, $79,900....HUH? Car last sold around $300K at auction.....

Tell you what, if the owner of that car is reading this, I'll pay you the NADA high retail value, no problem.....

While price guides are just that, guides, it is a little unfair to judge them based on a one-off vehicle. Most guides are strong in certain types of vehicles, none, it seems, are strong across the board, and I'd say none are strong with extremely rare or one-off vehicles. With experience, one learns to know the strengths and weaknesses of each guide. When we appraise cars, we use 3 or 4 different guides, along with auction reports, and especially consult with other appraisers and owners, along with inputting our own gut feeling.

[trimacar]

West, I once posted on these forums about a certain yellow early "race car", and was politely asked to remove the post, as it stated (truthfully) that the car was built up from a picture and a part of an engine.

If the truth were known publicly about a lot of cars, there'd be some shocked owners. I once walked through Hershey with a friend who is tied in to brass cars like no one I know, from a knowledge standpoint, and it was incredible the stories he told of certain cars....a chassis built here, a rebody there....fascinating....

[Dave Mitchell]

If someone builds a car from pieces, changes bodies, builds a new body, or otherwise alters or modifies a car and is honest about it, that is one thing, but too often they don't because it would ruin their profit potential. Clubs and officers of clubs as well as individuals should be afraid of lawsuits - a crazed wealthy car collector who enjoys litigation for sport can destroy someone or a club with incredible legal fees defending themselves even if they are right and the car or collector is wrong. I too have been amazed at some of the cars that are "fakes" but presented as real, and with shows that look the other way. Buyers really have to be on guard, and sometimes those cars that look like #1s but sell at #3 prices show that the bidders are more aware than the reporters.

Edited March 30, 2013 by Dave Mitchell (see edit history)

[edinmass]

This thread is one of the most important and valuable pieces of information I have seen on this site in over 10 years. Add up Dave M., Dave C., and A. J.'s years of experience with big cars and what you get is a priceless background and basis for buying and selling the great cars of the 20's and 30's. Everyone who is interested in these cars should commit what is here to memory, it will save thousands of dollars and years of headaches. And just for the record, when I was asked to look at a Packard recently for a good friend, I called two of these gentlemen for background information and assistance. ALWAYS hire the best person you can find to look at a car BEFORE you make a purchase, it will be the best value for money spent you will ever dish out in the car hobby. The most expensive car you can buy is a "good deal" with nice paint that turns out to be a rolling junk yard. Always hire an expert. Ed

PS Always assume a car is assembled from floor sweepings and swap meet left overs until proven otherwise. If you have seen where some cars start out with just a few components and dream, then 20 years later they have a history from new when they make it to the auction circuit. I have seen it happen many times.

[trimacar]

There's an interesting little book, "Cars I Could've, Should've Kept" by Jackson Brooks.

In it, he tells the fascinating story of acquiring a Packard Dietrich Victoria, number 904-95, a project car. He proceeds to restore the car, and he goes into detail about using a parts car, replacing part of rear tub of body, and switching from an 8 to a 12 cylinder chassis.

He was very open about doing this, even consulting with CCCA rules and prominent members about the fact that the car would be accepted in the club. Everything and everyone confirmed it was no problem, as the components were all of the same year.

He'd sold the original chassis, and later a man bought his leftover parts and even the rusty piece of rear tub from him.

THAT person proceeded to build an identical car from the pieces, and then had the CCCA confirm it as the REAL 904-95. The car that Brooks restored, with many original parts and even the firewall VIN plate, was deemed by CCCA to be a replica!!

The entire story is worth buying the book, just for that one chapter, as he goes into great detail about the restoration, subsequent legal action, and the result, which went into arbitration. And yes, he ended up selling his car as a replica!

[alsancle]

I think anyone buying any collectible of value should have an expert helping them. Ed, your friend is lucky to have found you. I wonder how someone on the outside can figure out who you an trust and who you can't?

I think many of these assembled cars did not start out with the builders trying to pass them off as something other than what they are. But, it only takes one owner in the chain to forget to mention some details and the car takes on a new story. Sometimes this is just innocent oversight and sometimes not.

I love telling this story from around 1985. I was walking around a mid size show in Massachusetts with a friend who worked as a restorer. He and I had both worked for Ted Billings when Ted was building his run of Model J Toursters. I was just a teenager so my contributions were very limited (polishing and pushing) but my friend had done serious work on the cars. We come around the corner and there was one of Ted's Toursters parked in the row. Out of the 10 or so cars Ted built the first ones used fairly complete sedans (what a sin that would be today) and the last ones were assembled from an engine and a bunch of castings. This particular car happened to be one of the later ones. I walked up to the owner and introduced myself and complimented him on his car. I then introduced my friend and told the owner that he was instrumental in the building of his car. He had a really puzzled look on his face and asked what I meant. I had assumed he knew he had one of Ted's replica Derham Toursters (I was a lot younger then) so I just matter of factly recounted the work building the car. He abruptly turned away from me in a really really bad mood. I heard through the grapevine that the car was sold not too long after that.

[Restorer32]

I saw a gorgeous brass car at Hershey that I remembered reading about in one of Austin Clark's columns years ago where he describes assembling the car from bits and pieces gathered from his misc parts accumulation. As I remember he had very little of the original car to begin with. Now the car is promoted as the sole surviving example of the marque. It's good that the remains were preserved but a historical artifact it isn't.

[Dave Mitchell]

Thanks for the kind words Ed, ad yourself into the mix too, you have a lot of experience, not just buying and owning, but working on and actually driving too. We both know how much fun it is to fix up the mess left by less than qualified restorers/owners.

This thread is one of the most important and valuable pieces of information I have seen on this site in over 10 years. Add up Dave M., Dave C., and A. J.'s years of experience with big cars and what you get is a priceless background and basis for buying and selling the great cars of the 20's and 30's. Everyone who is interested in these cars should commit what is here to memory, it will save thousands of dollars and years of headaches. And just for the record, when I was asked to look at a Packard recently for a good friend, I called two of these gentlemen for background information and assistance. ALWAYS hire the best person you can find to look at a car BEFORE you make a purchase, it will be the best value for money spent you will ever dish out in the car hobby. The most expensive car you can buy is a "good deal" with nice paint that turns out to be a rolling junk yard. Always hire an expert. Ed

PS Always assume a car is assembled from floor sweepings and swap meet left overs until proven otherwise. If you have seen where some cars start out with just a few components and dream, then 20 years later they have a history from new when they make it to the auction circuit. I have seen it happen many times.

[Dave Mitchell]

I remember the Jackson Brooks Dietrich well. I was on the CCCA board and classifications committee. The sad thing is that there was once a real Dietrich convertible victoria, and now there are two cars built from the pieces of that one, and neither has much claim to be the real car anymore. That is the other thing that we haven't mentioned is that it is sometimes cheaper to build a new body than to restore the original and some wealthy and well known collectors do this as a routine thing with no regard for history, only to save money and to make things easier. If they destroy the evidence no one is the wiser, and won't be until down the line when someone goes to restore or repaint it again and finds out that it was all new in 1990 or some recent year. Brooks' mistake was to sell the remains, and the buyer took advantage of his mistake. It really made a mess. It proves once again that you really have to do your homework on these cars. That is why I get really excited when I find a car like the 1938 Packard 12 Derham convertible victoria and it is sitting there in bare aluminum and I can document it back to new and know it is a real car with a history and has no skeletons in its closet.

There's an interesting little book, "Cars I Could've, Should've Kept" by Jackson Brooks.

In it, he tells the fascinating story of acquiring a Packard Dietrich Victoria, number 904-95, a project car. He proceeds to restore the car, and he goes into detail about using a parts car, replacing part of rear tub of body, and switching from an 8 to a 12 cylinder chassis.

He was very open about doing this, even consulting with CCCA rules and prominent members about the fact that the car would be accepted in the club. Everything and everyone confirmed it was no problem, as the components were all of the same year.

He'd sold the original chassis, and later a man bought his leftover parts and even the rusty piece of rear tub from him.

THAT person proceeded to build an identical car from the pieces, and then had the CCCA confirm it as the REAL 904-95. The car that Brooks restored, with many original parts and even the firewall VIN plate, was deemed by CCCA to be a replica!!

The entire story is worth buying the book, just for that one chapter, as he goes into great detail about the restoration, subsequent legal action, and the result, which went into arbitration. And yes, he ended up selling his car as a replica!

[West Peterson]

I bought a 443 coupe in the early 80's, very handsome car. Mine was excellent mechanically, although a little stiff to drive, wire wheels which were a nice touch, and OK cosmetics. Car was solid as a rock. Circumstance was such that I sold the car in the early 90's, and got a fair penny for it, with no advertising just word of mouth through a well connected antique car friend. Recently, I asked him where the car was now, and the answer was interesting to say the least. The fellow who bought it had a 443 roadster with nice cosmetics but the running gear was poor, so he switched the two bodies. The coupe then got sold to another person, who took the body off his 443 sedan and installed the coupe body, with the sedan body now on the poor running gear. Now, there are three "mismatched" cars out there!

I have absolutely no problem with those kind of swaps. No harm, no foul. All identical chassis swaps and no need to even alter i.d. numbers. Not a true "mismatch".

Not the same as swapping a Super 8 with a Standard 8, or a Eight with a Twelve, or a Twelve with a Sixteen, etc. In those cases, the swaps are done to deceive.

[Dave Mitchell]

It does make a difference if people admit to what they have done and are not doing it to deceive. People certainly have a problem with interchanging major components on muscle cars - this can drop the value a great deal, or even on a Duesenberg, or Cadillac (where there are records), but with Packards, people don't seem to mind as much. Perhaps because it is hard to prove, and it has been done so much. I'd hate to be the guy who ended up with the last version of the worn out 443. I also feel sorry for the people who have the sedans that clubs find unacceptable as they have been swaped to smaller series, all the while accepting the open big series cars that belong to prominent collectors. Not fair.

[West Peterson]

I'm not following you Dave. If you were the guy who ended up with the last version of the worn out 443, how would that be a bad thing?

[trimacar]

I'd say that ending up with the "worn out 443" would be a bad thing because you now have the worst parts of three cars. Also, since it's the left over parts from servicing a higher valued car, little care was probably taken in putting things together, having the right connectors and bolts and fittings and all the things that make a car complete.

My only problem with the swaps is the lost historical significance, if you can trace ownership of a car, then what do you follow...the chassis or body?

All that said, I have a spare '37 Super 8 engine in case the '38 Super 8 engine in my convertible coupe ever really trashes itself, right now it's being fixed, but 38's are notorious for having weak block castings.....and apparently 37's don't have the same weakness...

[Steve_Mack_CT]

This has been an interesting thread to follow and the accumulated knowledge here in one spot is really cool. Will only add a couple of quick comments here -

Is it a fair statement to say that valuing Full Classics may not be the strong suit of the HMN staff? Outside of Dave Shulz I am not sure they have a lot of Classic expertise in house, and he is not usually involved in the auction results or at least the author credited with the write ups. These reports have stumbled on the detail on some pretty common prewar cars - a year os so I remember one comment on a prewar Packard "who is buying these now, they will likely end up in museums" - that was a published comment in their auction results section. Not a criticism, but an observation, they are largely postwar/muscle/sportscar guys so take their observations with a grain of salt. I think these guys are interesting general automotive journalists but not so sure on condition expertise (they seem to note a lot of #1 cars if you follow their results month over month) nor market values beyond consulting price guides back at the office. Maybe I am wrong - would love to know what analysis goes into pricing. Not sure, for example where they came up with the benchmark for the Duesenberg Tourster recently sold out of RM, a CT car and older restoration - but only 6 or 7 of these were made; is the benchmark other Tourster sales? Duesenbergs as a whole, etc. Not saying they are off base, I just wonder about that. In fairness that is a tall order for a generalist magazine trying to find value adds in today's Internet based world.

Second, on sports car pricing, Porsche 356 and early 911 models are a good example of a bit larger market moving a lot quicker than the guides can keep up with. These cars are appreciating very quickly and have been for around 18 months or so, defying a slower market. I think you see that less with Full Classics, but that seems to be the case with these - apples and oranges.

Even marque specific guides are tough - The SL Market Letter is pretty optimistic at times, and this monthly publication is supposedly based on latest market data, and the publisher does know the marque really well.

I think the car in Hemmings, if truly in top shape, was an anomoly, and more indicative of the occasional good buy in a somewhat fragmented market than a trend, IMHO.

Edited April 3, 2013 by Steve_Mack_CT (see edit history)

[West Peterson]

I'd say that ending up with the "worn out 443" would be a bad thing because you now have the worst parts of three cars. Also, since it's the left over parts from servicing a higher valued car, little care was probably taken in putting things together, having the right connectors and bolts and fittings and all the things that make a car complete.

You both are making it sound like the car was forced upon you. So, it's bad because it's worn out. My reply would be, "If you don't want a worn out car, don't buy it." It still has all of the pedigree: 443 body, 443 chassis. There really, REALLY, are no skeletons about it. It's value is only affected by the downgrade in condition.

[K8096]

Great thread. I'm on vacation; so am late in chiming in. I was at a small swap meet 15 years ago and met an old guy who told me he converted a 1932 Packard Super 8 conv coupe into a Twin Six back in 1950. Yes, 1950. He said he sold the car shortly there after. Now think about it, that car has probably been restored twice since then. Probably once in the 1970's and again in the 1990's or 2000's. Each subsequent restoration "corrected" what was missed in the 1950 conversion. Someone out there now has a 100 point 1932 Twin Six conv coupe that isn't really what they think it is, and it's true identity has probably now been lost to time.

In regards to the three 443 Packards being switched around, the sad thing is that in the beginning we had three original engine/chassis/body cars, and now we have none.

Edited April 5, 2013 by K8096 (see edit history)

[Dave Mitchell]

I agree. If all you care about is that this is a car of a certain model and nothing else - no history or "provenance" then the swap around cars are fine, but I don't think they are as valuable as a car that has not been swapped. As a rule, I don't think the swap guys do a great job, they are usually the quick and dirty type. That may or may not be corrected in subsequent restorations. I think that a car with a known documented history should carry a premium.

Great thread. I'm on vacation; so am late in chiming in. I was at a small swap meet 15 years ago and met an old guy who told me he converted a 1932 Packard Super 8 conv coupe into a Twin Six back in 1950. Yes, 1950. He said he sold the car shortly there after. Now think about it, that car has probably been restored twice since then. Probably once in the 1970's and again in the 1990's or 2000's. Each subsequent restoration "corrected" what was missed in the 1950 conversion. Someone out there now has a 100 point 1932 Twin Six conv coupe that isn't really what they think it is, and it's true identity has probably now been lost to time.

In regards to the three 433 Packards being switched around, the sad thing is that in the beginning we had three original engine/chassis/body cars, and now we have none.

[Dave Mitchell]

The car in Hemmings was not in top shape. and sadly I think that the writer just didn't know enough about Packards to properly evaluate it and called it a #1 because it is has shiny paint. He also comments on a 34 12 that there is nothing wrong, but it is missing the sidemount covers which would probably set the new owner back about $7 - 8000 alone to buy and restore to match the car. If he missed that, what else did he miss? He may know other cars, but he doesn't seem qualified to grade a classic Packard. Quote:

I think the car in Hemmings, if truly in top shape, was an anomoly, and more indicative of the occasional good buy in a somewhat fragmented market than a trend, IMHO.

[Dave Mitchell]

Hi Oldcar, I didn't get your email, I will look in the filtered folder and see if I can find it there. I haven't seen your thread about it, but it is a good looking car. I have friends in NZ who tour in Australia fairly often, perhaps you have met them. It looks very nice in the photos you posted here - very authentic colors. Dave

Hello

This one is really for Dave Mitchell, I sent you an e-mail asking for a realistic valuation on my 1923 Single Six but have not yet received a reply.

I have been completely up front about the car and its restoration in my thread on "Our cars & restoration projects" I know to the last cent how much I have spent on the car excluding my own time. Perhaps someone may care to suggest what I could expect to sell the car for. Hemmings keep trumpeting about record prices being paid for 1920s cars so obviously there are still some cashed up buyers out in the market. While the car is in Australia it could be shipped to anywhere in the world for less than $10,000.

oldcar

[ATTACH=CONFIG]187309[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]187310[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]187311[/ATTACH]

[Dave Mitchell]

Hi Oldcar, I don't find your email. please try again. packard12s@hotmail.com

[Matt Harwood]

I'll go on record saying that it would be a shame to dismiss a '20s Packard Six out of hand. We recently listed a 1928 533 7P sedan and after driving it for about an hour, I found that it was probably every bit as lively as my '29 Cadillac with a V8. It was smooth, torquey, and, well, it moved even that big sedan body without a lot of effort. I would think this roadster would be wonderful to drive. So please, don't dismiss the six just because it's not an eight--evaluate it on its own terms and I think you'll be very pleasantly surprised.

However, in terms of value (if I may, being in the industry), I think you're going to struggle to get top dollar for this particular car for several reasons:

1. Cut up original body, not a factory roadster body swap, not a reproduction of an original body, but a modified body. Regardless of when it was done and how spectacular the restoration is, it's a mongrel. It has been my experience that selling a car with a big asterisk next to it like that is a challenge. It will always require explanation, it will not qualify for judged events, and may not even be welcome at some other events. Any buyer will undoubtedly be thinking about the NEXT buyer, and having to explain all this will sink his desire to own it. Kudos for disclosing that fact, but the disclosure doesn't erase what it is, it's merely a big virtue on your personal scorecard.

2. Non-Classic. I realize that the CCCA is not the end-all, be-all of the collector car world, but being a Full Classic opens a lot of doors and makes cars eligible for great events, at least in the US. With this car being Down Under, that may not be a consideration, but since the US is the largest market in the world, it's definitely a component of the marketing plan.

3. Price. For the reasons above, it's going to be tough to get a price like you're asking for this car. We recently sold a 1929 626 convertible coupe for considerably less, and all parties were quite satisfied. The '29 is a much more desirable car (eight cylinders and a factory convertible coupe body) and while it wasn't restored to this level, it was a nice driver-grade car that was ready for touring. In fact, it is on its way to Australia right now.

You put a high-quality restoration on your '23, I understand the desire to recoup your costs (that was the intent all along, correct?), but the investment to bring it to this condition would have also restored a correct, authentic car to this condition. The initial purchase price is irrelevant compared to the cost of that work. Therefore, you're asking people to buy the restoration and ignore the car itself. If they can have your car or, say, a '29 626 convertible coupe with eight cylinders for a few bucks less, well, it's easy to see what's happening. Nobody is lusting after a car like yours, it's not anybody's end-game; it will likely be an impulse buy for someone with some disposable income looking for fun who falls in love on sight. So you need to get it in front of a lot of people and be ready to make the deal when a legit buyer comes along, even if it means taking a haircut--there are not many buyers for this car.

On the other hand, it's an open Packard that looks like a lot of fun with a no-worries restoration that's ready to enjoy. If you can find someone looking for a great tour car, that would be your buyer. But at your price, there are a LOT of choices that include correct cars, later cars, more powerful cars, and while some of them may not be as fresh, it's kind of irrelevant since your car won't be judged anyway. Evaluate your competition and remember that your buyers are as smart as you are and know the market as well as you do.

I don't mean to be a downer, but cars like this are always a struggle to sell and the only real factor is price. It will have to be priced in a way that makes the other issues stop being issues. As an enthusiast, I hate that I know this stuff, but it's my job to be critical of cars--it's what people pay me to do and why they trust my opinion.

Nevertheless, I sincerely hope this helps. Good luck!

[Restorer32]

Excellent answer, lays all the cards on the table.

[Steve_Mack_CT]

Here is an example of every situation being individual. Someone raised this car on another forum due to the attractive woman in period attire (who owns it, as it turns out) as an example of a great way to sell a car. She is great and all, but the pics are not the best and not that detailed. This is a nice, but not perfect 120, the exact same car as one I sold a year ago, in very simillar shape - as of this AM, just over $30K, quite a bit above market, IMO...

Packard : 120 standard in Packard | eBay Motors

I doubt ms. Von Teese has enough celeberty value to impact this sale but you never know, I had never heard of her, but I guess she is a celeb of some type. Good, authentic color, nice #3 - my guess is the usual little things need attention, like the steering wheel under that cover, etc. A great car to drive but $30K plus, wow....

[West Peterson]

Interesting story on Dita. Very cool.

Was the tachometer an "option," or a dealer's salesman's tool to help sell overdrive???

[60FlatTop]

I read this forum because I have developed a burning desire for a 1940's Super Clipper. That said, can you imagine the discussions around the circa 2050 estate sale of this one:

Bernie