Is the antique automobile hobby ready for the coming switchover to electric cars, etc.

[Mark Gregory]

[jdome]

The 2 main ingredients in batteries are Lithium & Cobalt and both are bad for the environment. Cobalt is strip mined like coal and with worse run off issues. Lithium is usually found in underground brine and is extracted using fracking methods similar oil & gas fracking, then it is placed in open evaporation pools with chlorine to make lithium chloride. Evaporating chlorine in the air is basically mustard gas. Cobalt is used in other industrial processes to make alloys, glass, ceramics. Lithium is not used in large quantities other than batteries but it is used as a drug to treat various mental disorders. Lithium toxicity has a long list of extreme side effects including death. It is not something we want in our water supplies or in the air from the mining process or discarded batteries in our landfills. Most of the world's supply of both cobalt & lithium come from South America, Chile & Congo but also Russia and some middle east countries that have oil and some do not. Most of the worlds supply goes through China to make the battery cells. There is little known reserves of either element in the US so are going back to exploiting third world countries for their energy reserves only this time we are dependent on China as well.

 

Chile and Congo use child labor and little if any protective gear. The UN has been put in the embarrassing position of either protecting children or the mining of hazardous so called clean energy. The UN chose to side with big business and the Green Industrial Complex and have done little if anything to protect the lives & health of South Americans.

 

The first model Tesla used 6,000 individual, off the shelf battery packs that were common in laptops and camcorders at the time. Technology has changed. There is enough battery material in the model 3 Tesla to make 40,000 smart phone batteries. EV's are an energy pig compared to other uses of batteries in terms of materials. We buy between 15 & 18 million new cars per year in the US. EV sales in the US in 2019 accounted for about 1/4 million. With todays known sources of lithium & cobalt there is no way we can have any dramatic increase in EV production.

[TerryB]

The famous line “there is no way we can have...”. which then translates into everyone working on the projects know this limitation already and is working on solving it.  Your points are valid but making statements that it can’t happen because are usually just how it was maybe two or three years ago.  Process improvements are closely guarded secrets and not disclosed until all the appropriate intellectual property protections are in place.  Remember we went from “man will never fly” to landing on the moon in less than 70 years using less technology than most cell phones contain today.

[padgett]

"Remember we went from “man will never fly” to landing on the moon in less than 70 years using less technology than most cell phones contain today. "

 

Can perpetual motion via clockwork be far ahead ?

[jdome]

Of course we went from zero to the moon in 70 years but where have we gone in the past 50 since. Do you think we can go to the moon again in the next 10 years? Maybe if we had to and maybe if someone actually made that a goal, but we don't do such things anymore? NASA has been politicized some time ago. Their first political mission was to indemnify a certain foreign auto company from their brake failures and unintended acceleration. Of course it helped that the newly appointed transportation sec. at the time came from that same auto company.  NASA's primary political mission since has been to justify climate change legislation and justify steering hundreds of millions of subsidies to boondoggle green enterprises that benefited certain politicians of the greenwinger party. Fisker, Greentech Automotive, and Solindra just to name a few of the biggest boondoggles with the biggest political names behind their failure.

 

Perhaps I should not have left the impression that we will never ever get to the point of no longer manufacturing IC cars. But certainly not in the next 10 years as was suggested in the original post. I don't object to technical advancements. Someday I will own an all electric myself. Probably when my kids take my keys away from me and I moved to one of those retirement communities that permit golf carts on the street.  The first year Prius will be eligible for AACA in 2 or 3 years and as other manufacturers brought hybrids to market in the early 2000's, the prediction then was that all cars manufactured in 10 years would be hybrid. That deadline past about 8 years ago. Annual Hybrid sales (US) peaked in 2013 at just under half million and has been declining since, although the plugins have helped to boost sales in recent years.

 

Even though 10 years seems like a long time, it is only 2 or 3 generations of new model upgrades. We still don't have a consumer grade replacement for the IC car. Yea you can buy a $50,000 or $100,000 Tesla that can burn rubber and go 200MPH. But can anyone make one that will go 70MPH for 3 or 400 miles on a charge and perform as well in sub-freezing northern climates in the $20,000 price range? No. Not today or anytime soon.  The Leaf and Bolt were supposed to be that car but they fall far short of expectation. Their resale market is almost non-existent.  GM recently announced that they would be all EV by 2030 but they have yet to produce a hybrid or EV with any actual sales volume. What sort of marketing ploy is that? "Don't buy our obsolete products today because we have better products coming,,,sometime,,,maybe". The BOD should fire that CEO and soon. Consumers have more to say about what kind of cars GM will sell than GM. If GM wont make what consumers want , barring any political mandates, they will buy some where else - think back to the 70's. The idea that there is some new secret sauce battery out there but it is being held back because, whatever, is just as nonsensical as that carburetor that gets 100MPG using water & magnets but is being held back.....OK, maybe that one is true.  If there was a secret, advanced tech being worked on, China & MicroSoft would already have it in their phones. I give Tesla credit for being ahead of their competition on batteries but that's only because they have been quicker to adapt cell technology.  Tesla just announced a new generation battery but it appears to be the same lithium in a cheaper to manufacturer package - flat stack, multiple layers instead of individual cells, just like the cellular industry has done for a decade. Tesla also announced they will make that retail consumer EV  that will go 300+mile for about $25,000 but their new battery & $25,000 car won't be available for 3 years, or more like 4 or 5 in Tesla years. This will be the third time in 10 or so years Musk has promised a practical, consumer affordable EV but this time he really, really means it. 

 

 

 

 

 

[rocketraider]

👏👏

[dustycrusty]

19 hours ago, padgett said:

 

 

Can perpetual motion via clockwork be far ahead ?

Not until legislation is passed to revoke the 1st & 2nd laws of Thermodynamics!

[TerryB]

Obviously you and I see things in a distinctly different way which is fine.  I worked in the TV electronics industry for most of my life in the engineering department and for the last 5 years in medical products design.  My comments reflect my 40 years of hearing this or that can’t be done or will take X number of years to develop or be accepted by the public.  So many things did happen that it would take hours and pages to list them.  Your comments have overtones of politics throughout as you believe that science is now only done to satisfy someone’s political agenda when in fact it’s profit driven by the public acceptance of the product and its benefits to your life.  The biggest experiment in history took place during the pandemic shutdown, the air pollution and noise pollution we deal with every day was so lessened that cities with smog issues finally saw what it was like to live without that burden.  Yes it was a temporary occurrence but it had the power to show what could be if pollution levels can be reduced.  

 

My view of the world is not political but based on doing the best we can to make it better, cleaner, and livable for those who come after us.  Will that involve change, absolutely!  The difference is I’m not afraid of change or making concessions to ensure that happens.  As has been mentioned we have to deal with increased population levels that can strain our planets ability to support itself.  Improving the IC engine to make it more clean will involve money and a re-evaluation of the type of fuel used in it.  E90 or something similar to that has been proposed to get there or even hydrogen and who knows what else.  Electric is probably a temporary fix and it’s acceptance by the public has been a surprise to many, including me.  The idea of an EV based transportation mode was for years based on reducing the cost of fuel for the consumer and preservation of the resources used to make gasoline.  Now it’s seen as a way to decrease tailpipe emissions and to drive a vehicle that has little requirements for service outside tires and brakes during its ownership.  

 

Discussions on the benefits or lack thereof for EVs will continue for a long time and in places far removed from this forum.  The plain and simple fact is that they are here and will be growing in presence in the foreseeable future. We will deal with it individually as we see fit the same way we do with everything else that comes along in our lifetime.  I just have to chuckle at times when EVs are the topic here I see a correlation between the reaction of some to be equal to the scenes in the Frankenstein movies where the villagers band together with torches and pitchforks to chase the beast away.  Mel Brooks version of Frankenstein is much lighter and more enjoyable, the beast isn’t as bad a guy in that movie.  Maybe there’s a lesson to be had there.  

[padgett]

Number of thoughts:

Pollution - it is said that engineers vote with their feet - why I've spent a lot of time in Sunnyvale but live in a warm, no-income-tax state with "excellent" air quality and rust must be imported.

 

Innovation: For some Smokey and the Bandit said it all: "They said it couldn't be done (and for the money"). I never had so many toys to play with as in thutty plus yar with a major defense contractor. Was insisted we file patents even though I don't believe in them (see "for the money" - a large for every one).

 

I think EV will be around (over a century already) just built a bit better than the CitiCar (local & AACA eligible, if you can find one), just doubt for long distances at Interstate speeds with AC, more around senior centers and theme parks. Major problems are energy costs (real) and energy density (per pound of vehicle weight).

 

Alternate fuels: problem again is production cost and storage (we do not need mini-Hindenbergs).

 

Are lotsa choices (I like external combustion) but for energy cost and density per pound it is hard to beat gasoline (and for about 2/3 the density, forms of alcohol even though most of the US is unsuitable for the most efficient producers, may need some new trading partners...). To convert to alcohol just need a set of numbered drills.

[1912Staver]

2 hours ago, TerryB said:

Obviously you and I see things in a distinctly different way which is fine.  I worked in the TV electronics industry for most of my life in the engineering department and for the last 5 years in medical products design.  My comments reflect my 40 years of hearing this or that can’t be done or will take X number of years to develop or be accepted by the public.  So many things did happen that it would take hours and pages to list them.  Your comments have overtones of politics throughout as you believe that science is now only done to satisfy someone’s political agenda when in fact it’s profit driven by the public acceptance of the product and its benefits to your life.  The biggest experiment in history took place during the pandemic shutdown, the air pollution and noise pollution we deal with every day was so lessened that cities with smog issues finally saw what it was like to live without that burden.  Yes it was a temporary occurrence but it had the power to show what could be if pollution levels can be reduced.  

 

My view of the world is not political but based on doing the best we can to make it better, cleaner, and livable for those who come after us.  Will that involve change, absolutely!  The difference is I’m not afraid of change or making concessions to ensure that happens.  As has been mentioned we have to deal with increased population levels that can strain our planets ability to support itself.  Improving the IC engine to make it more clean will involve money and a re-evaluation of the type of fuel used in it.  E90 or something similar to that has been proposed to get there or even hydrogen and who knows what else.  Electric is probably a temporary fix and it’s acceptance by the public has been a surprise to many, including me.  The idea of an EV based transportation mode was for years based on reducing the cost of fuel for the consumer and preservation of the resources used to make gasoline.  Now it’s seen as a way to decrease tailpipe emissions and to drive a vehicle that has little requirements for service outside tires and brakes during its ownership.  

 

Discussions on the benefits or lack thereof for EVs will continue for a long time and in places far removed from this forum.  The plain and simple fact is that they are here and will be growing in presence in the foreseeable future. We will deal with it individually as we see fit the same way we do with everything else that comes along in our lifetime.  I just have to chuckle at times when EVs are the topic here I see a correlation between the reaction of some to be equal to the scenes in the Frankenstein movies where the villagers band together with torches and pitchforks to chase the beast away.  Mel Brooks version of Frankenstein is much lighter and more enjoyable, the beast isn’t as bad a guy in that movie.  Maybe there’s a lesson to be had there.  

 

Yes, I heartily agree that all those people just stop doing things the environment improves. For a while at least, until we get bored or start to run out of things.

 No argument from me that a good deal of human activity ; and the logical extension , environmental harm , is completely unnecessary from a overall cost /benefit basis.

Trouble is that we have a very profit based society. Just as long as there is a profitable market for all the billions of unnecessary things the people of the world buy every day

there will be someone out there producing those items . And the word will be further harmed by the creation of , and disposal of stuff that probably should never have been made

in the first place. Look at the energy consumed by data farms so kids can play on line games and interact with Tic Toc,  frightening ! Just a total waste of truly untold human hours so a few can profit. 

Find something highly addictive and let er rip as long as there is a buck to be made

  We are all victims of marketing. 

     It can't end well.

 

Greg

Edited October 6, 2020 by 1912Staver (see edit history)

[rocketraider]

1 hour ago, dustycrusty said:

Not until legislation is passed to revoke the 1st & 2nd laws of Thermodynamics!

Mmph. Don't give politicians seeking votes any ideas. They come up with enough cock-and-bull material without any suggestions, and I daresay one not versed in physics and science would think repealing those natural laws of order would be a great idea. Especially if it garnered votes from similarly unenlightened people.

 

Ancient Rome had nothing on us moderns.

 

When technology and infrastructure will allow me the same range in an EV as in an ICE vehicle, at an affordable price, then we have success. At 64, not sure I'll see that in my lifetime.

[padgett]

And the slopes of Vesuvius were the most fertile lands around.

OTOH Lucid Air is claiming a 500 mile range. Now.

or you could pull a 40 ft. trailer of solar cells.