Leno on future collectible cars

[1935Packard]

An interesting essay.

Of course, Leno has a very broad view of "collectible" -- looking at the collectibles of the present, he includes cars that have a following *somewhere* even if they aren't worth much. I suppose in that sense almost every old car is collectible.

[poci1957]

It was a good article from a real car guy. I think he is spot on with the 1990-97 Miata, which already has a following. I have a 1995 and when working on it (which is actually possible, with a little research) I am often impressed with it's simple design and parts availability. And unlike with my previous Fiat Spider I do not fear rust or reliability (but I loved that car anyway and miss it).

NOW I do not expect they will be very valuable, but I think they will have a big following and offer great fun per dollar, much like the 1970s British and Italian sports cars the Miata replaced in the first place. It is already said that Miatas are the best selling small sports car model ever, and that the Miata clubs add up to the largest club membership for any single marque. See you at Hershey in 2020!

[LINC400]

The Miata as a future collectible, yes I can see that. The Taurus? I don't think so. The '49 Ford was quite revolutionary for its time, yet is worth nowhere near what a '57 Chevy is. I think the Taurus will be just as overlooked. As for the Pintos and Gremlins, they aren't worth anything now. Neither are Metropolitans which I think are the most collectible of all the little cars. Nice cars, but I think you would have an extremely hard time getting more than $20,000 for one now. Less than your much more common Chevelle or Mustang. So I don't think Priuses or Smart Cars will be commanding big bucks in the future either. Plus I don't think anyone takes into consideration computers and repairs. I can't get replacement parts for my 1994 Buick now. Where are you going to get computer chips and parts for your 2005 gadget laden car in 2025? Pontiac Aztek the new Edsel? (and it is NOT a Ford Edsel, just like it isn't a Ford Lincoln or Ford Mercury or Chrysler Dodge) Edsels took forever to finally get some respect, and they are still the butt of jokes, and again worth nowhere near what a '57 Chevy is.

[Dave@Moon]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">The Taurus? I don't think so. The '49 Ford was quite revolutionary for its time, yet is worth nowhere near what a '57 Chevy is. </div></div>

Yes, but "collectivity" is a relative thing. How does a '49 Ford compare to a '49 Chevy or Plymouth? And if you have a hard time getting $20K for a 1960 Metropolitan, how much trouble would you have getting that much for a 1960 Falcon or Rambler American? I think a 1986 Taurus will be similarly more valuable than a 1986 Celebrity or Caravelle, and apparently so does Jay.

As for the electronics when these cars are collectible, they are going to be a problem...but one among many. Restoration as we know it may not be possible, but good original cars will always be a premium item on the market.

And I'm pretty sure is automotive knowledge includes the division status of Edsel as well.

I think Jay is spot on in his assessments. An excellent article, instead of <span style="font-style: italic">Popular Mechanics</span> he should be writing for <span style="font-style: italic">Hemmings</span> or <span style="font-style: italic">Collectible Automobile</span>. The latter in fact could really use a good editorial collumn like his.

[LINC400]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Dave@Moon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">And I'm pretty sure is automotive knowledge includes the division status of Edsel as well.

I think Jay is spot on in his assessments. An excellent article, instead of <span style="font-style: italic">Popular Mechanics</span> he should be writing for <span style="font-style: italic">Hemmings</span> or <span style="font-style: italic">Collectible Automobile</span>. The latter in fact could really use a good editorial collumn like his. </div></div>

I wouldn't be so sure that he does know the division status of Edsel. In an interview, he repeatedly called his Imperial Crown a "Chrysler Imperial" even though Imperial was a seperate division at that time.

I do not think he is spot on either. I think a Plymouth/Chrysler Prowler, Dodge Challenger and Magnum, and Chevy Camaro will be a lot more collectible than a Taurus, Escalade, or Prius. And that is just off the top of my head.

Even excellent original cars may not run if computer parts cannot be found. I recall reading an article about an excellent condition low mileage Lincoln Mark XIII that could not be fixed because no one had a computer part on the shelf for it, Ford wouldn't make one, and junkyard ones didn't work. I think there will be a lot more of this type of situation in the future.

[Dave@Moon]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

I do not think he is spot on either. I think a Plymouth/Chrysler Prowler, Dodge Challenger and Magnum, and Chevy Camaro will be a lot more collectible than a Taurus, Escalade, or Prius. And that is just off the top of my head.

</div></div>

And Jay's point, in which I agree, is that cars are collected based on the coming values among collectors, not our own. When I was a kid I remember people hoarding Lincoln Mark IIIs and early Eldorados, because by the aesthetic that prevailed at the time (full classics on top, Ford V8s second, everything else being "just a car") they were <span style="font-style: italic">surely</span> the collector cars of the future.

Those <span style="font-style: italic">little kid</span> Mustangs and Camaros certainly weren't going to have a future!

If we were going to lie another 50 years, your list is certainly the ones we'd keep. They're also the ones some others would. My son thinks they're all silly compared to his treasured Scion dreams, and I think more of his generation would agree than would want the cars I like.

[poci1957]

Just to add to a few things you guys are discussing:

I think pretty much any old car is of interest to someone if it is a nice original that does not require restoration. However, only cars with a following will have the parts support to allow restoration. For example, a 1953 Plymouth is now of some interest if it does not require restoration, but if it does few collectors are interested. I think that is how the 1980s cars will end up.

But on that note, I wonder if it will be possible for a computer geek to reproduce PCMs and other black boxes to refurbish old cars? It seems a 1985 automotive computer must not be that technologically sophisticated, I wonder if it can be done? May be a good opportunity for someone....

Also, I think the old tradition about collectors wanting the cars they wanted as a kid will apply--a 15 year old baby boomer in 1969 likely did not have a magazine photo of a Lincoln on his wall, but now at 55 he will pay big for the Camaro that was up there. Such car culture was fading by the late 1980s, but ponycars and muscle were still of interest. We will see.

[LINC400]

For every item, there is someone to collect it. Who would have thought people would collect bottle caps, lunch boxes, or old oil cans? So I am sure, in the future, there will be someone collecting Tauruses and Priuses. However, I do not think that those will be the cars of choice for future collectors.

I do not remember anyone hoarding late '60's & '70's Mark III's or Eldorados. The only collector interest was for the 1976 Bicentennial Eldorado convertible which sold for double the list price. Then was a huge flop on the collector market when a new Eldo convert was sold before the '76 was anything more than an 8 year old used car.

The cars from the '70's that were collected were muscle cars. Duesenberg and even Model T and A owners might have looked down their noses at them, but those were the cars that people collected from the '70's, Not Lincolns and Pintos. Those cars generally cannot command more than $10,000 in flawless shape now. Certainly not many were collecting them decades ago. No one could have predicted the huge overinflated prices of muscle cars today, but they were still the ones being collected decades ago.

People do collect what they remember from childhood. A 1957 Chevy is, and was 20 years ago, unlike anything being built now or then. How different is a mint 1986 Taurus from a 2009? I bet if you put both side by side, most NON-Car people would have no idea they were built 23 years apart. Where then is the nostalgia value? They will want to collect the Challanger or Camaro they had a poster of on their wall, not the Taurus or Accord they probably don't even remember because they were busy arguing about what DVD to watch in the back at that time.

As far as some computer geek making replacement parts, sure it is possible. Maybe someone will even make them for Mustangs and Camaros. But for Tauruses and Priuses? I don't think so. Every Mark IV and V I have ever seen has cracked armrests if it has more than 20,000 miles on it. Yet no one makes a reproduction part for it. And it does not even require any computer technology, just a mold made from an old one. Why does no one make this then? Because it is not a muscle car. There are tons of replacement parts for Corvettes, Mustangs, and Camaros. Try finding them for a '70's Lincoln. So I don't think there will be a ton of computer replacement parts for Tauruses.

[Rawja]

What y'all are missing is firstly the computerized components are robust and secondly electronic components are easily repaired. When they fail it's not like they are unsalvageable, a capacitor will still be a capacitor 50 years from now.

When the touch-screen in the '86 Riviera (and later the Reatta) debuted there were dire predictions in the auto mags about the potential failures looming and $ 2,000.00 replacement costs. Neither of which ever really happened. You can get the screen repaired today for 150 bucks, though failure rates are unbelievably rare even now 21 years later.

Same-same on ECMs. I just swapped out the ECM on my Trans Sport with a rebuilt. Cost: 90 bucks after core return.

You might not like modern cars, but electronics have made cars better in every way, and will not hamper their future collectibility.

[Guest HeyPop]

The 'black boxes' in the computer controlled cars of the 80', 90's and even up to our time period are all encased in material that pretty much negates getting to the componments to do such repairs. Even if we could, the LSI (large scale integration) of the parts keeps us from knowing what individual components make up any given module on the circuit boards. Individual components like resistors, capacitors and the like are getting few and far between also because of the LSI technology. Without knowing it the car manufacturers may have made it easier for our government to 'do away' with collectible vehicles so that the only ones restorable will be the generations with basic ignition systems and electrical circuits. How sad that would be.

[Guest HeyPop]

Speaking of the new electronics and Leno...has anyone seen the "New Motor" clip on Leno's site? The 3D scanner and attached 'printer' looks like it will be great for the restoration community in the future.

[trimacar]

Roger- I am a pretty obnoxious guy, and from Louisiana, so when I see "what y'all are missing" I just have to reply.

The point is that early cars, and I consider Antique Cars to be Pre WWII, are easy to work on and get running. If there is a problem, then you either 1)don't have spark to the plugs (and haven't we lost that description, we talk about "spark plugs" so much that we forget that it provides a spark, and "plugs" the hole), or 2} there is no gas to the carburetor.

Now, as we fast forward to the modern stuff, then we can't just figure it out in a simple way. Now, we have sensors, detectors, electronics, and all the things that we CAN do, but we don't HAVE to do. I have seen it time and time again in the industry of processing and packaging equipment. We have technology available to us, and we use it, and many times it is a benefit. But, there are times we use that technology ONLY BECAUSE IT IS AVAILABLE TO US, and it does not necessarily improve operations. Are electronic ignition systems easier? Well, yeah, until you are sitting on the side of the road and the car won't move. And the fix is no fix at all, but to be pulled/towed to a garage and be hooked up to a computer.

Even then, the computer does not mean that things will be fixed. My wife had a great Olds Aurora. It started acting strange, tachometer pegging, transmission not shifting correctly, brought to dealer. They kept it for days, and the computer showed nothing wrong, even though the tech driving it home said it had the problem. I found through Internet search that it was the crankshaft position sensor. I went to service department, and told them to replace same, they argued that the computer said it was fine. Changed, car was perfect. I told them I would pay only for standard cost to change part. They trusted computer more than what was the problem (and yes, I realize the irony that I had to use a computer to fix a computer/sensor problem).

I once had the responsibility to keep two Ford 8N tractors running, to support pulling cotton trailers into our cotton gin in Louisiana. Would that everything were that simple. Points sanded, time ignition by observation, make sure gas was to carb. If one forgot to block the clutch, then break it loose, or "break the back" of the tractor by unbolting engine from trans. And those simple tasks kept the 8N's running for years.

I feel that future restorations will be a nightmare, with electonics, cheap plastics, and cars meant to be thrown away transportation". Will they be collectables? Sure, every generation produces things that will be collected later in the cycle. But it will be difficult to restore what is now a "modern" car, with all the electronics and specialty materials.

I was working on a modern car, and the comment was made that if one had a fully optioned car, power windows, etc., then the wiring in the driver side door was more complex and utilized more wiring material than the entire electrical system on a mid-50's Ford. Yikes.

Ok, stepping off the soapbox and going to bed. Happy Motoring to all. dc

[R W Burgess]

I'm going to bring up a dirty word here, RODDERS!

The support companies for rodders can make most anything including computer controlled ignition systems and fuel systems. I'm not saying they have the answers for every car now made in this country, but with modifications and time, I'll bet you a Coke that they will be helpful in the future with electronics.

Wayne

[Marty Roth]

TRIMACAR has the right idea - my cars have no modern substitutes for their original systems.

If ever you are on the side of the road while on tour, and your car is as original, I can probably help to get you going - happened many times before!!

If your "antique" has been "modernized" with electronics, Fuel-injection, etc. I will gladly phone for the trouble truck to pick you up, and kindly do not try to claim the "Hard-Luck Trophy".

[LINC400]

My 1976 Lincoln has automatic headlights. They do not work because they need a computer sensor that no one makes. My 1979 Lincoln needed the same part. Fortunately, the headlights can be operated manually and none of this affects the driveability of the car. However, I can only imagine that the more computer stuff a car has, the more likely it is to affect its ability to be restored. People still pull 1950's cars out of junkyards and barns and get them running. I can't imagine that happening with a computer laden car years from now that hasn't been running for decades.

[Guest BJM]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: trimacar</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Will they be collectables? Sure, every generation produces things that will be collected later in the cycle. But it will be difficult to restore what is now a "modern" car, with all the electronics and specialty materials.</div></div>

We may be seeing a unique period in history. Maybe...it could not last forever. We don't necessarily collect the pre-automobile age "vehicles" and antiques. The amount of horsedrawn carriages and antique furniture and pots/pans/homes whatever collected is not even close to the passion that people collect automobiles from a defined period. Typically, I'll say 1925 to 1972.

Automobiles are nicer then ever and we are headed into a time when everyone will eventually drive hybrids or electric cars. I have no issue with that direction.

On my 22 miles commute to work I want COMFORT. I don't necessarily feel comfortable in my 71 Chevy 3/4ton Custom camper. It's noisy, smelly, and requires more focus to drive, but I hope I never have to sell it.

I mention this because 20 years from now we may be collecting the same period of cars, 1925 to 1972. We may not need future collectibles. We just can't tell if the hobby will be a "floating hobby" soaking up new periods of vehicles with the same passion of the older cars.

[Guest BJM]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: R W Burgess</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I'm going to bring up a dirty word here, RODDERS!

The support companies for rodders can make most anything including computer controlled ignition systems and fuel systems. I'm not saying they have the answers for every car now made in this country, but with modifications and time, I'll bet you a Coke that they will be helpful in the future with electronics.

Wayne </div></div>

EXACTLY right Wayne. That's what is great about AMERICA. We invent solutions to problems. Rodders know that the number of available old tin is not increasing. Now they basically build "kit cars" that look like old cars, except they are "rods"

If there is a need, there is a geek in a garage somewhere working on the solution. Rodders are all getting old - and they don't want to do the work themselves. They just want a 'cool' completed car in their garage. Before the current recession they were tapping into 401k drawdowns for this purpose.

With the house paid for or lightly mortgaged, and most bills under control, they were forced by their retirement fund managers to take a 401k check annually. So they bought muscle cars, hot rods, etc and did not see an effect on their quality of life.

Kind of off topic kind of not. The companies creating ready to drive (almost) hot rods fed off this cash cow, and created brand new Mustang II suspensions, everything to build a new hot rod except the labor. As a competitive culture, the one-upmanship led to innovations including the computer systems to run fuel injected engines.

I can think of lots of modern cars that I would love to collect and own - Buick Reatta, Cadillac Allante, some Corvettes, and many more. Good old fashioned American know how will help keep these cars going. In fact, there is probably enough brain power in the cadre of kids addicted to video games and computers to solve every modern car dilemma, if only we could refocus them!

[LINC400]

A 1971 Chevy pick up was built to haul things, not for comfort. If you wanted comfort, you bought a 1971 Cadillac or Buick or even Impala. Sure a new pick up or SUV has heated leather seats and all kinds of goodies. But those vehicles were not exactly sold to go off-road or haul things. They were sold because city dwellers wanted to look cool on their expressway commute to work. I have not ridden in any newer car that has a more comfortable seat or ride than my 1976 Lincoln (or plenty of other older cars that have actual springs in the seats). No noise or smells. Driving it is like sitting in a Barcalounger watching the windshield like a video game. In comparison, the 2006 Monte Carlo SS requires constant attention and my a$$ hurts on a trip of more than 30 miles. Cupholders, GPS, and I-Pod jacks do not make hard seats and a stiff suspension comfortable on a long trip.

I think we are seeing another low point in automotive history. From 2000 until now, I can count on one hand the number of interesting stand out cars that are not another 4 door midsize Accord clone. Challenger, Camaro (if it ever gets built), T-bird, Chevy SSR, Saturn Sky. With the current financial problems of the Big 3, these will be the first cars to be dropped, as some already have been. There will be no money for speciatly enthusiast cars that will sell in limited numbers. Leaving only the blandmobiles. A hybrid or electric car is fine if you want an appliance to get you to and from work. If you could get a Town Car or Challenger that has the same size and performance as a Hemi powered one with electric or hybrid technology, that would be great. But I don't think that will happen anytime soon.

Rodders making computer parts to make everything run is a nice fantasy. However, they are making parts now. You can buy anything for a 1957 Chevy or a Mustang. There are 3 places that specialize in Lincoln parts. The parts they have are N.O.S. parts that they have been lucky enough to find somewhere, or used parts off of junk cars. There are zero repro parts for the interior of a 1970's Lincoln. Maybe a taillight but otherwise zero repro exterior parts. Fortunately Ford trucks use the 460, otherwise we would probably have no parts for those either. My first Lincoln needed that headlight sensor in 1991. I now have a 1976 that also needs one. It is almost 20 years later, and still no one has made this part. The air conditioning in my friend's 1991 Cadillac Brougham does not work because no one makes the computer part for that either. So what makes everyone think that rodders will rush to the rescue to make parts for newer cars? Sure, they will probably make everything you need for a newer Hemi or Mustang. But for a 2000's Lincoln, Mercury, or Taurus they are not interested in? Why would they make parts for cars they are not interested in when there will be no market for them?

[oldcarfudd]

If there's a demand for parts, there will be a supply. The guy who does my work has a 1906 REO, not exactly a car that shows up in overwhelming numbers at AACA meets. He split his aluminum crankcase open. Since the crankcase had already been repaired in the distant past, and not too well, he decided to cast and machine a new one. He put out a call to see if anyone wanted one, to amortize the cost. Bottom line: he made 22 crankcases for 2-cylinder REOs! The skills to make specialized computer parts are totally different, of course, but there are people coming along who know how to do this stuff, and someday will do so for a price.

Gil Fitzhugh, Morristown, NJ

[LINC400]

That is great, but what about the 23rd guy that no one knew about that needs one? Or the guy that will need one in a year or two? How long were the other 21 guys waiting for someone to come up with this part? Where do they go to get other parts they might need? Bottom line is it is much easier to get parts for a Ford Model T than a 1906 REO. The same as it will be much easier to get parts for a future Challenger or Mustang than a Taurus or Lincoln. Yes, in the distant future someone may or may not come up with parts. I say it is much more likely that parts will be hard to find for Lincolns and Tauruses than that there will be tons of computer geeks or rodders making parts for every need. 33 years after it was built I am still waiting for someone to come up with the computer sensor and armrest I need and have no idea how to go about making. (By the way, can this guy make a mold for an armrest for a Lincoln?) How many other people on this forum are looking for parts they can't find. How is it going to be no problem to add computer parts to the list on top of that?