The New Classics?

[MCHinson]

Double M,

I agree that discussing what newer cars might become future collector cars is a good idea. You did use a poor choice of words in your thread title. Once that was pointed out, continuing to, try to push people's buttons (and calling them names), does not improve your position. If everyone will ignore the negative, and try to keep it positive, a discussion of this subject will be much more enjoyable for all.

For myself, while my primary old car is a pre-war car (sort of weird for a guy born in 1960), I also really like Rivieras of the mid 1980's. After buying many over the years trying to recapture the essence of one that I should have never sold, I never intend to sell my 1984 Riviera.

When first looking for an air conditioned collector car for hot weather touring, I bought a 1976 Ford Country Squire Wagon. I am amazed at how interested people are in that car at local shows, but I would really like to sell it and can't seem to find a buyer for it. So I am convinced that I have no idea what people are going to like in the future, I am just sure that with my luck it won't be anything that I am trying to sell.

[Ben Bruce aka First Born]

Sounds like my luck, Matthew!! Every one WANTED [i thought] a Cushman motor scooter. A real collectable. Until I bought one and then decided to sell. NO TAKERS! Oh well, such is life.

Ben

[alsancle]

Hi Angelo,

As a general rule, use "Classic" to only refer to cars of the 1920s/30s that cost as much as a house when new. Do a search on Classic vs. Antique for lots of reading enjoyment. What you are really asking is which recent cars will be deemed "collectible". As to that, I don't really have much of an opinion, but I'm sure many others can chime in.

A.J.

So this was the post that "hijacked" the thread? I was trying to be polite and I really think the thread was hijacked by the vigorous but unnecessary defense of using any world regardless of established usage. Why is it such a big deal? If the people that take the hobby seriously use one set of words, why wouldn't the "newcomers" accept those words?

[Dave@Moon]

If the people that take the hobby seriously use one set of words, why wouldn't the "newcomers" accept those words?

Inconsistent usage even among "serious" hobbyists. The use of "Classic" is all but unique to CCCA members at this point, and "Full Classic" (which at least was more definitive), is all but forgotten now.

People who drop 460 cu.in. truck motors into Lincoln KB limos and call them "street rods" think of themselves as "serious", too. Who are we to say no? We're the smaller, side group now.

Fighting over words wastes energy. Fight over the cars instead.

====================

Back to the real thread....

The future of the hobby is in what we now call HPOF cars. In 30 years the idea of restoring a car will almost be a silly concept, at least in the sense as it's been used for the past 30 years. The decal kit to restore my 1996 Ranger would number in the hundreds, including the handwritten one reflecting a change in the PROM under a TSB. And that doesn't even take into account the expense and complication both in technical complexity and safety/environmental concerns. However a low-mileage survivor will be of interest just like any car.

The sports models and odd-ball low-sellers have already been covered, and they're a no-brainer. Unique models from orphan makes would be next, i.e. Plymouth Prowler (which I'll bet is worth more than the Chrysler version), Mercury Cougar's last generation (1998-2002), Pontiac GTO and Solstice, Olds Trofeo, Saturn Sky, AMC Alliance and Yugo convertibles, etc.

The other thing I think will happen is the loss of advantage that American cars now enjoy as (small letter c) classics. I don't think a Dodge Rampage will be worth any more than a Subaru BRAT, or that a Chrysler Sebring convertible will be worth any more than a Toyota Solara convertible. The Honda CVCC engine series will likely be the next Chevy small-block, if it isn't already.

One thing's for sure, in 30 years what we think won't matter squat! I'm only 52 and I can still remember when Hemming's Motor News' ads were 75%+ for Ford parts. Do you think the people placing those ads would've anticipated a collectible Dodge pickup truck from the 1970s????

Edited November 5, 2010 by Dave@Moon (see edit history)

[Guest mjames]

I have a hard time picturing a 4 door late model impala coming across the auction block in 50 years(excluding the SS models), and the auctioneer talking about its all original and people actually bidding on it.

But then again who would have thought back in the day that in 50 or 60 years people would be bidding on a 4 door family car from the 50's. i guess one never knows. Only time will tell.

[LINC400]

A 1957 Chevy 4 door post is worth less than a convertible, 2 door hardtop, 2 door post, 4 door hardtop, and any wagon. They increase in value when people that want one of the more desireable models can't afford them due to escalating prices. Or value goes up as parts cars.

A 2007 Impala has no other more desireable model. It comes as a 4 door post sedan only. Nothing to start the ball rolling. Plus it is pretty much the same from 2000 - 2011 with far higher production for all those years than one year of production for a 1957 Chevy or Cadillac.

Plus add complicated computer systems and needing to know how to work on them plus 30 year old computer parts being no longer available. A late 1970's car is already not worth restoring because by the time you pay to paint, reupholster, rechrome, and rebuild engine and whatever else mechanical, you could buy 2-4 in nice shape. The additional expense required for more complicated systems on newer cars will surely dampen 2010 muscle car/unique models appeal. More ordinary cars like Accords and Impalas should surely have an even tougher time finding a buyer.

So I would say that not only will the car have to be something other than the average 4 door, it will have to be in excellent preserved condition as well to have some collector value.

[jeff_a]

Double M,

I like the Old Classics myself, but there's nothing wrong with liking the looks of post-Classic Era cars. There weren't too many Classic Cars built back in the old days of the 20's, 30's and 40's, and even fewer of them are survivors. That's why they're so expensive, in addition to the blending of art and technology in their design that has not, in my opinion, ever been equaled. What's great is that there are some overlooked Classics that can be found for not much more than a new 2010 car. 1920's Cadillacs and Lincolns come to mind.

I like your inclusion of the Pontiac Solstice and Buick Reatta as New Classics, though I never even saw a Reatta until this year (I live kinda in the sticks). You certainly don't see them every day. Did John DeLorean have a hand in both the Fiero and the Reatta? He had a horse and cattle ranch out where I live. The Mazda Miatas that stealthbob mentioned are nicely-designed.

Another interesting post-war car built was the Studebaker Avanti. A million or so Corvettes have been built, but not Avantis. To turn things around, if you found a '53 Corvette* with it's original six-cylinder motor, and offered it for sale here on the forums, you would have dozens of people trying to buy it, I suspect. One postwar car that's significant from an automotive history standpoint is the 1974 Mustang II: Motor Trend Car Of The Year, over 300,000 sold...but you NEVER see them anymore. I would love to find one in good shape and make a BHD** over it (trailering it to car shows, have someone do a 100-point restoration, etc) if I had the money. My point on the Mustang II is that you could get one cheap if you could find one, even if a lot of people aren't impressed by the 140 cu. in. engine or the fact that the Pinto was similar.

I looked up some specs for Mustang II's (I couldn't remember the engine size) and was surprised to find that there's a "Mustang II Network" site with a registry and everything (4,093 cars in 54 countries). There was even a reprinted article from Mustang Monthly called "Has the 1974-78 Mustang II become a classic?"

*Barely 300 made

** Big Huge Deal

Edited November 9, 2010 by jeff_a (see edit history)

[Guest Dauro]

“Classic”…as a recent member to this forum it is far from my intentions to discuss any senior member´s definition of that concept. I’ll accept their opinions and basically I agree.

If the Classics or Vintage or Antiques are defined to specific eras, time will come (hopefully) when hundred year old cars don´t qualify for any of theese categories but surely they could become desirable and collectable. Suppose we will not just call them OLD cars… Any ideas???

To me personally, anyway, the meaning of a (low case letter) classic car is not limited to a certain period. A cocktail mix of age (of course), performance, production number, successful styling and other qualities produce a “feeling” and a special interest in a certain make or model. First-of-a-kind or last-of-a-kind of course adds points too. Then it’s a classic to me. And when lots of people agree with me, well, then... ?

And from that point of view, Double-M’s question is interesting (perhaps he should have placed the post in another, less Classic, forum?) Certainly there are some recent cars out there that in some years will turn into sought-after collectibles, but which ones? In the late fifties, who would believe in a Bel-Air? Since young boy I allways dreamed about the Cadillacs, but the late Eldorados, probably very nice cars, don´t say nothing to me, as future classics. However, a Roadmaster Wagon give me a better feeling, last of the real king size American Cars with excellent styling. And I suppose that “woody” look is gone for ever?

My favourite low case letter classic:

[jeff_a]

Dauro -- What is the car in your photo? Is it a Simca?

[Guest Dauro]

Jeff,

Yes, my first car! Simca Vedette AB Beaulieu 1958, bought very cheap in 1965. Not a top quality car, but very fun and easy to drive (OK, all first cars are fun to drive, but this one was very, very special!)

Carl

[1937hd45]

This is not the place to educate people who have no interest in the past.

So this was the post that "hijacked" the thread? I was trying to be polite and I really think the thread was hijacked by the vigorous but unnecessary defense of using any world regardless of established usage. Why is it such a big deal? If the people that take the hobby seriously use one set of words, why wouldn't the "newcomers" accept those words?

[D Yaros]

If you want a guideline for future collecting, it is easy: find a car that was TOL and low production because it cost too much new and is now depreciated out ($600 when the GTO arrived is like $4000 now).

Gee, if I understand that definition, then my '92 Allante is a future collectible? When she turns 25 in 2017 will she be worth a mint?

[Guest Double M]

Gee, if I understand that definition, then my '92 Allante is a future collectible? When she turns 25 in 2017 will she be worth a mint?

It is a good bet. Allantes get my vote! Reattas, Fieros & K-cars too...

If the internet was around 25 years ago, we would be debating some of the cars we now consider valuable as "The New Classics".

My case in point... In 1980 I bought a rare 1969 Buick GS 400 in excellent condition for $1450. 48,000 original miles. It was a promotional model not intended for public sale and painted in a promotional color too, making it even rarer. It sat for months on the used car lot and nobody I knew even heard of a GS. Now, I would probably have to pay at least $14,500 (note the extra zero) for it... and nobody doubts a GS's collectibility or status today. Here is a pic...

It isnt all about Corvettes, 57 Chevies and Model T's...

Not that there is anything wrong with that!

[Guest PWN]

My grandfather *who began collecting cars in Wauchula, FL in 1922* called the cars you folks are talking about "Used Cars".

I guess all cars are "Used Cars" at some point, but not many post war cars physically show the history of automobile development like prewar cars do.

[Guest Jim_Edwards]

A 1957 Chevy 4 door post is worth less than a convertible, 2 door hardtop, 2 door post, 4 door hardtop, and any wagon. They increase in value when people that want one of the more desireable models can't afford them due to escalating prices. Or value goes up as parts cars.

A 2007 Impala has no other more desireable model. It comes as a 4 door post sedan only. Nothing to start the ball rolling. Plus it is pretty much the same from 2000 - 2011 with far higher production for all those years than one year of production for a 1957 Chevy or Cadillac.

Plus add complicated computer systems and needing to know how to work on them plus 30 year old computer parts being no longer available. A late 1970's car is already not worth restoring because by the time you pay to paint, reupholster, rechrome, and rebuild engine and whatever else mechanical, you could buy 2-4 in nice shape. The additional expense required for more complicated systems on newer cars will surely dampen 2010 muscle car/unique models appeal. More ordinary cars like Accords and Impalas should surely have an even tougher time finding a buyer.

So I would say that not only will the car have to be something other than the average 4 door, it will have to be in excellent preserved condition as well to have some collector value.

Linc400 I would have to agree with the majority of your assessment and am inclined to add to it a bit.

Since 1980, more or less, the auto industry has managed to perfect a product that one should have no expectation of it having a life expectancy significantly beyond the end of the longest financing period being offered by the manufacturer's financial arm at the time produced. There is no question that the majority of vehicles produced over the last thirty years will eventually become a maintenance nightmare as components within the electronics become more difficult or impossible to replace as they fail, and they will fail. More importantly as time passes there will be a lessening of vendors producing those parts as a result of their going out of business from lack of aftermarket demand. I would submit that the growing inability of individuals being able to repair their own vehicles will eventually kill the manufacture, distribution, and retailing of repair parts. Believe it or not we may indeed see major parts retailers like AutoZone, Advance, O'Reilly's, NAPA, and Car Quest going out of business or having to significantly alter their business model.

Beyond the repair parts issue is general survivability of the vehicles themselves. Any one of us who have '60s and '70s cars are to some degree daily fighting the problem of deteriorating plastics, more than sufficiently indicating the majority of cars produced over the last twenty to thirty years with all the plastics in them will simply just begin disintegrating much like a 1960s padded dash and vinyl covered roofs. Disintegrating plastics are a far worse nightmare in a car with years than rust has ever been.

There are truly very few cars that have been produced over the last thirty years one would consider a collectible, much less being considered "Classic" using even the most liberal definition of that word in conjunction with automobiles. That fact along with what will become the impossibility to maintain those vehicles will eventually have a resounding affect on the "Old Car" hobby. (sorry about reducing the hobby to "Old Car" but that is exactly what it is) When the existing automobiles from before the 1980s shrink in numbers for various reasons, as they inevitably will, the hobby and all the car clubs will shrink proportionately. When will this begin? It has already begun as anyone looking for certain replacement parts for any car manufactured as recently as fifty years ago can attest. It has begun with the realization there are many electronic sensors and controls on cars manufactured in the 1980's which may not be easily found. But more importantly is the already begun significant disintegration of plastics found in those 1980s, as well as later cars, indicating the lessening number of survivors from even that somewhat recent time may be the beginning of the end so to speak.

The best advice for anyone inclined to engage in this hobby is buy a pre 1980s car now and enjoy the hobby while you can as all the remaining pre 1980s cars may well become financially out of reach for many. Personally, I'm just glad I probably won't live long enough to see what has been one of the greatest periods in this country fade totally into being the exclusive domain of the wealthy, museums, writings in history books, and nostalgic articles in magazines or on the Internet. No, I'm not a fatalist; but I am very much a realist!

A realist who has enjoyed participating in the automotive hobby and the lifestyle from the early hot rod days to the present. Some 55 years of one hell of a good time and enjoying a cultural phenomenon which in truth died in the 1970s and would be long forgotten if not for those of us who are keeping it alive for as long as we can.

Jim

[Larry Schramm]

Jim,

I guess there might be some truth to the obsolence of car parts that the majority of persons can work on with enjoyment, but as time goes on I believe that there will be innovation that will help in many areas of vehicle upkeep. I was talking to a friend of mine that does door modules for vehicles and he told me that he extpects in the future where a door window electronic module goes bad, you might not be able to get the exact module with things like express down feature, etc... he expects that you will be able to get a generic module that will allow for window operation. We may be moving into a period that to keep a vehicle running you will need a fair amount of computer savy to understand the operations of the vehicle.

Edited November 10, 2010 by Larry Schramm (see edit history)

[Guest]

Anyone see this months edition of Hemmings Classic Car Magazine?

Title is " 9 future Cadillac collectibles".

Don

[Guest Jim_Edwards]

Jim,

I guess there might be some truth to the obsolence of car parts that the majority of persons can work on with enjoyment, but as time goes on I believe that there will be innovation that will help in many areas of vehicle upkeep. I was talking to a friend of mine that does door modules for vehicles and he told me that he extpects in the future where a door window electronic module goes bad, you might not be able to get the exact module with things like express down feature, etc... he expects that you will be able to get a generic module that will allow for window operation. We may be moving into a period that to keep a vehicle running you will need a fair amount of computer savy to understand the operations of the vehicle.

Larry some of what your friend has mentioned has already begun occurring, but on a very, very limited scale. I personally don't look for that to go very far as even that market will depend upon a sufficient volume base to be a good investment for anyone. There isn't nearly as many "shade tree" mechanics working on their own vehicles today as there were even ten years ago. The need for specific computerized diagnostic equipment has all but driven most from beneath the shade tree. Heck it's even driven a lot of older mechanics out of the shops and a lot of shops out of business.

I have a great amount of computer knowledge because of my career before retiring and most of the time I can figure out what a given problem might be even without specific diagnostic equipment. But the fact is just being able to deal with the diagnostics doesn't get it fixed if unique electronic components have failed. By unique I'm talking about those one year things and engineering approaches that are specific to an individual auto maker. Many cars of the '80s are filled with uniqueness of one nature or another. One of my favorite examples is the power brake system used on a couple of years of Lincoln Mark VII's. When that sucker fails one is in more than very serious trouble with effecting repairs. In that case it can be done, but the cost of the repair is typically very close to equaling the value of the vehicle. As time has passed the vehicle has become more valuable, but then the cost of repairing the brake system has also increased as the number of original parts that can be rebuilt dwindles. This is just one of many examples that can be cited. For example, God help you if you happen to own a Cadillac Cimmeron, because that is about the only way it will be kept on the road. Of course God help you if you think that car is worthy of having for any reason.

[Larry Schramm]

Jim,

I agree. You do make a point that the diagnostic equipment is making the vehicle repair almost undoable for the individual. The basic code readers that can be purchased for under $100.00 are mostly a waste of money. To accurately diagnosis current vehicles you need some type of scanner/computer and most of the factory dealer essential tools are over $2,000.00. These make fixing many items that go wrong quicker and easier, but one is held hostage to someone that has access to the diagnostic equipment.

[Guest Jim_Edwards]

Jim,

I agree. You do make a point that the diagnostic equipment is making the vehicle repair almost undoable for the individual. The basic code readers that can be purchased for under $100.00 are mostly a waste of money. To accurately diagnosis current vehicles you need some type of scanner/computer and most of the factory dealer essential tools are over $2,000.00. These make fixing many items that go wrong quicker and easier, but one is held hostage to someone that has access to the diagnostic equipment.

Larry, Often times not even all the dealer diagnostic equipment will lead to the correct repair and sometimes leading to unnecessary repairs being performed. Much like diagnostics by substitution. Case in point; my

daughter's 2003 F-150's check engine light came on, took it to a dealer. Diagnostics indicated a misfire on cylinder 1, though no miss was otherwise detected. Replaced spark coil on #1 cylinder, still throwing error code. Swap out multiple coils (bad idea!) still reads miss fire. Took to another dealer, same routine. Brought the truck to me to look at. Figured the computer was incorrectly responding to something going on and was attempting to adjust air/fuel mixture and was causing the miss fire code. Go nuts trying to determine where the bad input could be coming from. Finally figured out an intermittent diode in the Alternator which hadn't failed to the point it was obvious except to the on board computer which was apparently detecting the intermittent condition and throwing out the miss fire code as the next item in its analytical sequence is cylinder #1. Replace alternator and problem goes away.

The problem with on board computers, their diagnostic routines, and computer diagnostic equipment is not everything can be reduced to basically a go, no go when sequences of analysis are lined up like ducks in a row; as with ducks in a row, it can sometimes be quite difficult to figure out which duck quacked if looking a them from behind.

This is the sort of problem that will plague the maintenance of all cars with on board computers as time passes and in my mind makes any of them a problem most of the vintage car enthusiasts will not be able to cope with regardless of how much money they throw at problem cars.

Jim

[Larry Schramm]

Jim,

Remember like any computer...garbage in garbage out. Too many persons think that the scanner will give them all of the answers and they overlook the basics.

[Guest Jim_Edwards]

Jim,

Remember like any computer...garbage in garbage out. Too many persons think that the scanner will give them all of the answers and they overlook the basics.

The scanners or even more sophisticated computer diagnostic equipment does not necessarily pinpoint the exact cause of any issue. Even with those devices there is no replacement for knowing the basics of what makes engines, etc., operate as they do and using common sense, intuition, and deduction when attempting to identify and correct a malfunction or failure.

I need not comment on the lack of ability exhibited by many today to engage in any of the aforementioned brain usages.

Jim