O/T: Hybrids

[KDirk]

Padgett,

Of course, you are correct about the gas price vs. hybrid car price trade offs. This is an issue that was heavily debated the last time gas hit $4. The problem is that so many people can only think short term. If gas is $4 a gallon, they only think about the cost of a tank of gas. The fact that their car payment is more by virtue of the higher price of a hybrid is lost on these types as they aren't thinking about that angle, but rather only the weekly $80-100 fill up.

Amortizing the cost of ownership of a hybrid vs. paying more for gas on a less efficient car usually reveals that gas would have to be north of $5-6 a gallon just to break even over the expected life of the car. You and I both understand this, but the point is lost on many car buyers who think they are saving money by using less gas from better MPG ratings.

My real point regarding hybrids is that the psychology of many people will persuade them to buy the hybrid for the better mileage when they are actually going to spend more over the life of the lease or ownership of said vehicle. This is just a byproduct of masterful marketing and the inability to think further than the tip of ones nose that seems to afflict a lot of people.

KDirk

[Ronnie]

I think the group of people who think they are saving on transportation costs by purchasing a hybrid, are the same group of people who never ask what the price of the vehicle is but only ask "how much is the payment" when shopping for a new car. They don't seem to be able to see past the end of the month when it comes to finances.

[padgett]

Of course most of them are already in the book of the month club so maybe the delta payment is not that much.

They may have never known what it is like not to have a car payment.

[wws944]

Here on the "left" coast, you also have entire state and local governments, including the education system, pushing the hybrids as hard as they can. To the extent of issuing "drive in the carpool lane regardless of how many passengers" decals, free parking in downtown parking garages, "green car days" at local high schools so kids can push their parents into buying one, fleet buys of hybrids, etc.

Since the domestic automakers have been incredibly slow in responding to the Prius (in particular), Toyota has just taken over much of the California auto business. I would not want to have been a domestic car salesman or dealer here over the past 10 years.

Edited May 3, 2010 by wws944 (see edit history)

[Rawja]

Hybrids make financial sense if you're among the majority of the population that lives in dense urban/suburban environs.

I do about 15-20K in metro NYC and my purportedly 18/23 MPG vehicle has a cumulative real-world average MPG of 15 MPG over the past two years. I rented a Prius and got a legitimate 45 MPG for the same usage.

So doing simple math at $ 3.00 a gallon (a low # for my region) and 15K miles, the standard car costs 3 grand a year to fuel while the Prius would cost a thousand. That's two grand a year pretty much in perpetuity, not to mention the free use of HOV lanes, tax breaks, crazy-high resale value, and relative insulation from the hurt that the inevitable rise in fuel prices that will accompany the recovery of the economy.

If I was going to buy a new car (which I wouldn't so this is all in the theoretical realm here) I would definitely go for the hybrid. If I lived "out in the country" a hybrid wouldn't make as much sense.

[Ronnie]

Roger I would agree the hybrid offers significant savings on a per gallon comparison with standard vehicles. However, when you factor in the out the door cost difference, the cost of battery replacement down the road and the extra cost of regular maintenance (at least in the case of a Honda Civic's expensive oil changes) the cost savings in fuel are reduced significantly. I usually keep my vehicles for 200k miles or more. I don't believe the cost of ownership on a per mile basis would be much lower, if any, with a hybrid versus a standard vehicle at the 200k mark.

What leads me to that conclusion is my daughter and my nephew bought new cars in 2006. She bought a Nissian Sentra 1.8s with all the bells ans whistles for $14,200 out the door. He bought a Honda Civic hybrid for $24,700 out the door. Both have been great trouble free cars so far. From a drivers standpoint the only difference I see is the Civic has the fancy display on the dash that flips over to give you more info about the engine, fuel mileage and GPS navigation. Ride and acceleration are about the same. My daughter averages 33 mpg driving around Raleigh, NC which includes driving in town and on the I-540 beltway. My nephew says he averages 47 mpg under similar conditions. My daughter is paying ~$20 for oil/filter changes and my nephew is paying ~$67. When both cars reach 200k I can't see my nephew saving enough money in mileage to offset the difference in the purchase price. I may be wrong. I think the hybrids are good for the environment but are not the best choice from a financial standpoint for most owners.

[Vincent Vega]

Interesting. It wasn't until Ronnie's last sentence the word 'envronment' came up. Isn't one of the primary reasons for developing an affordable hybrid or electric vehicle is the impact on the environment? Myself, I doubt I will ever be able to afford a hybrid. Smart Car? 20K? Impractical. I have had my share of high mileage Toyota's and Honda's. Truth is most people can't afford to "be green". Unless they bring the price way down or gas prices go up and stay up they won't be for everyone anytime soon.

[padgett]

Actually there is a way to double MPG entirely within the existing support structure, just it isn't snazzy. VW and Audi have seven models that the EPA rates at least 30 mpg city/40 mpg highway - and not econoboxes: think 168 hp at 4200 rpm; 258 lb-ft of torque from 1750-2500 rpm; 0-60 mph in 7.9 seconds. That is more than my Reattae.

If going to spend $20k on a new car, it might as well be one that hasn't 1,000 lbs of batteries to haul around.

BTW guess they didn't look at the Calipornia roadmap:

"Current hybrid vehicles—currently about 4 percent of the market—need to grow to 40 percent of the market in the next 10 years, and then taper off, completely disappearing in 2040"

Edited May 4, 2010 by padgett (see edit history)

[wws944]

An annoying thing is that Diesel cars have been totally dissed. You could not even buy a new one in California for several years. However lots of VW TDI owners are getting 40+ and even 50+ MPG - without having to pay for all the exotic hybrid technology. A neighbor of mine has a TDI Jetta, puts probably 20-30k highway miles a year on it, and he always gets 50+ MPG.

The other thing one has to consider is the required usage. I.e., you have to solve your transportation problem first. Then 'optimize' the ride. Thanks to government meddling, a typical family with a couple of kids and needs to do any carpooling can no longer buy the 'family sedan' that many of us grew up with. The CAFE requirements caused them to be downsized, and front airbags prevent putting kids in front seats. So for better or worse, minivans and SUVs with 3rd row seats were, and are, needed to solve the requirement. If all your miles are driving solo, or you are an empty nester, then other opportunities open up.

Edited May 4, 2010 by wws944 (see edit history)

[padgett]

For years I always had a station wagon (odd ones - GTO, Astre Safari but wagons). For the last decade or so I have had a Pontiac TranSport minivan - gets better MPG, is just as comfortable, & can carry just about anything (scooter, 3800 powermodule, cupla rooms of tile...) plus tow a trailer. Same-same.

Am the worst kind or fanatic, a convert: have a 6300 lb class A that gets 25-30 mpg & is 20 years behind in improvements. Diesels today have come a long way - they just did it everywhere else.

Sorry but I think the current hybrids are a poor kludge. To work well, a hybrid should weigh around 2000 lbs and have a TD of one liter or less, not weigh 3,000+ lbs and have a 1.8l gas engine (or larger).

Looking at the 2010 Prius specs (1.8l VVT-i with 13:1 ! compression it looks like they just took a 1.8 Corolla engine and optimised for the CVT (finally we have them).

Sure it sounds great to the sans coulottes but is really far from optimal. 75-80 mpg for a "people mover" would be more like what we could do is anyone bothered.

Trouble is that they do not sell those cars in the US (e.g. Toyota IQ), just larger ones. The people have voted.

[handmedownreatta]

im looking toward the nission 'leaf'thats coming out in november.all electric with a 100 mile range.but im sure it will be too expensive.

[padgett]

G-Wiz:

(Think this is from Top Gear) "This electric car is the centre of much debate. Many vegtable loving types enjoy the freedom that the G-Whiz gives them with zero emissions. But for a minute we will just consider where the electricity came from for there G-Whiz. Other problems include that on a rainy night, one is forced to choose between headlights or windscreen whipers as the battery in this eco car isn't good enough to run both at the same time. Overall, this car is so slow it holds up tractors. If a boy was to kick his ball into the centre of the road, he could run in to retrieve the ball, grow to puberty, possibley even get married and have children before the G-Whiz posed any threat of running him over."

On 24 September 2009, RECC and General Motors India announced a collaborative partnership to bring electric vehicles to the Indian market.

(wikipedia)