1935Packard
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Posts posted by 1935Packard
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The new issue of Hagerty Insider, from the insurance company Hagerty, has this interesting chart on trends in 2019. The magazine explains: "When a potential customer calls for pricing on an insurance policy, our agents ask for vehicle details (e.g., year, whether it’s stock or modified) and personal/household details (such as whether the customer has a 16-year-old living at home). The Valuation Team aggregates hundreds of thousands of these quotes annually (stripped of identifying details) and uses the data to track market trends." This chart shows the era of cars that people asked for quotes about, based on both the era of the car and the generation of the person seeking the quote.
My understanding is that this reflects the data set of quotes that Hagerty gives out when people are in the market for insurance, not the data set of cars they insure. Cars that change hands a lot or that have owners who often want to change insurance plans will show up unusually often. Still, I found these really interesting numbers. And as a pre-war guy, I was particularly struck by absence of 1930s cars (below 1%, I gather, or maybe below .5%)!
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10 hours ago, alsancle said:
You and your real Fendi bag would look good in that 34 Victoria, assuming it goes cheap. I see an easy 50k in cleanup, but what a great car!
I'm good on '34s for now, AJ. But I wouldn't be surprised if the car is picked way below the the low estimate and is picked up by a dealer that cleans it up.
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18 hours ago, Matt Harwood said:
This is why the hobby seems so silly to me sometimes. Looks like a Duesenberg? Check. Sounds like a Duesenberg? Check. Drives like a Duesenberg? Check. Mostly Duesenberg parts? Check. 99% of the people in the world will recognize it as a Duesenberg, including judges everywhere but A-C-D events and especially high-end concours? Check. . . .
It's all an illusion, a shell game, one of those nesting dolls with another doll inside. The only reason most guys care about pedigrees is because they think the guy who buys it from him will care. And that guy only cares because he thinks the next guy will care. We never really get to the guy to whom it truly matters, only the worry about "protecting my investment" and thus insuring that future buyers will want it as much as you do and therefore will give you your money back. With that Duesenberg up there, the investment is far smaller, so there's no need to fret over protecting it with esoterics. It's vaporware, the same thing that makes that worthless rectangle of paper in your wallet able to be exchanged for $100 worth of real goods. Only the belief that there's value sustains it. Without that shared belief, what's left?
I don't know that I'll ever be able to scratch together $300-400,000 to buy a toy car, but if I can, I'll be scouring the world for the nicest rebodied, non-pedigreed Duesenberg I can find and then I'll drive the wheels off the stupid thing, grinning like a mental patient all the way, pedigrees and "matching numbers" be damned.
FWIW, my own view is that a lot of this is inherent in a market in luxury goods. It's like the difference between a real Fendi bag and a fake Fendi bag. They do the same thing and look the same. But the former is worth many many times the latter because it's a luxury good, and market values for luxury goods generally hinge on authenticity and provenance and rarity. The goods news is that no one needs a real Duesenberg or a real Fendi bag, so at least the stakes are low even if the market prices are high.
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6 hours ago, edinmass said:
Orin, there is fault in your hypothesis.............the other half are repowered eights. The car is only a 12 with rock solid provenance, and the last two I looked at in the past five years we’re conversions. And they were at the big venue sales.
Good point! I hadn't thought of that, but you're totally right.
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7 hours ago, alsancle said:
When I see that I know I'm dealing with someone that has limited experience in the hobby. It is basically a worthless statement. The more experienced guys will say "1 of 5 know to the XXX Club" or something along those lines.
Yup. A few years ago I tried to find pictures of all the still-existing '35 Packard 12 coupe-roadsters to see how they looked in different colors. Several big auctions reported that only five of the cars still exist, out of about 50 made. Just googling around, I found pictures on the web of at least 10 of them.
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6 hours ago, JamesR said:
Ford disliked many Jews on the one hand, . . .
I think it goes pretty far beyond Ford "disliking many Jews." For those unfamiliar with Ford's virulent anti-semitism and conspiracy-mongering, here's a taste: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_International_Jew . And as this article notes, "Adolf Hitler himself called Ford an inspiration and kept a photo of the automaker behind his desk. In a 1923 interview with the Chicago Tribune, Hitler said . . . . he wished he could send some of his “shock troops to America” to help Ford get elected president."
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Ballpark maybe 20K, if it's all there and solid? FWIW, here are two relevant (public) data points I happen to remember on the value of this model of car, although obviously not in that condition.
1) This nicely restored example won a lot of awards at various concours, and it was for sale for a long time at a very very high asking price -- around $250,000, if I recall correctly. In Feb 2018, it went up for sale at "Bring a Trailer," of all places, and sold for $126,000. I think the market is down since then, so maybe guess, what, another 10% or 15% less today? I gather that roughly matches Ed's 40 cents on the restoration dollar guess, If you say 20K for the car and $250K-ish resto,
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1931-cadillac-370-a-coupe-v-12/
2) Also relevant, here's a driver of the same car as a victoria coupe instead of the rumble seat coupe. Softer market with the more sedan-like body style, but at least a reference point. Sold last year for $63,250. https://rmsothebys.com/en/auctions/hf18/hershey/lots/r0012-1931-cadillac-v-12-victoria-coupe-by-fisher/693044
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10 hours ago, TerryB said:
I asked the Lititz historical society that question myself, apparently it was a well recognized abbreviation for John in early American history. The town of Lititz was founded by immigrants from Germany and Switzerland, most of which were of the Moravian faith, so Jno was familiar to them.
That's right. https://www.british-genealogy.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-62140.html
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3 hours ago, edinmass said:
I know what the next car is coming out of the shop..............It’s hush-hush top secret. 😎I'm guessing it's not this, just to rule out something obvious.
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So this is cool: I just googled "Walter Swoope" and "Packard," and up came this recent estate sale of Walter Swoope, where among the items up for sale is a 1940 Packard 120 convertible! And they even have pictures of the car on the estate sale website. See one of the images below.
The family must have held on to the car all those years. Neat. My first thought is to reunite my receipts with the new owner if I can find him, as the new owner should have this. But given that I just recently purchased the receipts, maybe it was the new owner who was getting rid of the receipts instead.....
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I purchased some old Packard repair receipts on ebay just for fun. Here's one below from 1951, in which Mr. Walter Swoope needed some work on his 1940 Packard 120 convertible. So he went to the local Packard service station and they repaired his right front fender, repaired his deck lid, gave him a new deck lid handle, and installed the handle . -- all for $16.50 total, consisting of $12.50 in labor and $4 in parts. Of course, inflation since 1951 means that to get to today's dollar, you have to multiply by 10 to get to a current equivalent. Still, $165 is a quite the cheap repair! On the other hand, that Packard was probably worth, somewhere in the ballpark of what, maybe $100 back then? That would be around $1000 today, if so.
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Curious if anyone has seen the movie, now that it's out. It's getting some very good reviews.
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Duesenberg SSJ, if price is no object. (I'm assuming that in this fantasy world we don't have to pay for insurance or repairs, either!)
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Neat video from Hershey this year, with Ralph generously going along. Just an incredible car.
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37Packman, there are people on this thread with a lot more experience than I have, but I agree that the data plate on a Packard of that period is something to check first, especially if it is fully filled out (as it was supposed to be, but often wasn't) and especially if it is from a well-known dealer (like PMCCO-NY), enabling you to check all the different fonts to see that they are factory correct and dealer correct. There are other factory markings to check on the cars I am familiar with, but the data plate is always a good start. I recently brought a car with what sure looks to me to be an original data plate to a shop for some cosmetic work, and the shop owner asked me if I wanted to replace that beaten up one with a nice new one. I couldn't have said "no way!" any faster.
With that said, I don't think I would treat an original-looking data plate as definitive. First, they can be easily swapped, so you could have an original correct data plate on a different car. I was recently reading an auction description of a '34 Packard that the auction house claimed was "recent reunited" with its original data plate. Your first photo appears to be a correct original PMCCO data plate, but I don't think Packard used the then-new Phillips-head screws to attach them that year; it's likely still the right data plate for the car, but I assume someone removed the plate at some point during a restoration/work for painting or something. Second, I assume it's possible to fake an original-looking data plate with enough time and effort. It's not likely for a normal car, but I assume certainly could happen with a particularly special one. I'll defer to others who have seen/heard of that happening....
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On 9/24/2016 at 10:34 AM, 1935Packard said:
K8096 wrote above: "One explanation for the high auction estimate could be the person selling the 1935 victoria is closely associated with RM Auctions, so why not reach for the sky?" I had assumed that K8096 meant the first part of that as just a hypothetical possibility, but now I realize he meant it as a fact. Looking at the old ads for the car in the CCCA Bulletin, the car is owned by Mike Fairbairn, profiled here as "one of the three founders of RM Sotheby's" who now works at the auction house. So the auction house is selling its co-founder/employee's car, and that very high estimate is presumably affected by that relationship. And note the asking price at which the car didn't sell in the CCCA ad from last year -- $180K. Takes some chutzpah to then offer it with an estimate of $225-275K.
With apologies for reviving a thread from three years ago, it looks like the same car is being offered by RM Sotheby's again. It will be interesting to see how it goes 3+ years later.
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I was going through some papers from my childhood recently, and I came across a large drawing I made in 6th or 7th grade picturing the kind of car I really loved at the time. I had to laugh when I saw the drawing, as it looked identical to the car I recently bought.
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Great topic. The amount of sorting that a pre-war car requires has been one of the genuine surprises to me getting into this hobby. It's what makes me most concerned about the future of pre-war cars. If you have to expect to pay 10K to get a car running correctly even if you buy a great car, that is going to limit who will buy these cars and keep them on the road. Maybe that's inevitable. But he more the knowledge of what has to be done can be widely known, and the know-how shared, the more people can get their cars on the road like they're supposed to be.
Other than that, I defer to everything that EdinMass will say. (Sorry, AJ!)
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56 minutes ago, edinmass said:
t’s an interesting car......but one can understand why it sold for next to nothing. That said, where do you buy a one off Packard 12 for that kind of money?
The roof is rather ungainly. But with the originality, known history, and its one-off status, I think it's super cool. Of course, they don't call me 1935Packard for nothing.
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6 hours ago, Walt G said:
Thank you for sharing this photo, I had not seen it before and very glad you posted it again in this thread. Magnificent car and the fact it has been in the family for some time is just that much better. Ed I totally agree, about one in 25 heavy iron cars are set up properly and run as when new. A close friend Lew Smith, owned a 1935 Packard 12 with Brewster coachwork that was bought by financier E. F. Hutton for his wife Marjorie Post ( of Post cereal family) it was here on long island and Lew was perhaps only the 2nd or 3rd owner. An amazing original car with the body transferred from Mrs. Hutton's Phantom 1 R-R to the Packard. when new. The car is now owned by another friend Ron Verschoor in Ca. . The 1927 style coachwork on a 1935 chassis is what people of wealth did then, it represents the people at that time and their mind set.
GREAT photo of your Packard convertible!!!!!
Thanks, Walt. I'd just add that Ron got the deal of the century on that car, it seems to me, when it was up for auction, I believe with no reserve. It is an awesome car:
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1935 Packard Twelve, picture taken in 1951. I am very blessed to have this car in my garage. I've shared this photo before here, but seems to fit this thread, too.
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6 hours ago, 60FlatTop said:
The Packard picture above looks like a mid-1960's vintage parade. Judging from the semi-casual dress and lack of hats on the spectators, a 25 to 30 year old car at the time.
About 10 years ago I started paying attention to the dress at vintage car events. It is quite a transition from the 1950's to the 1980's. The earlier picture from the 1970's with the man in the Polo shirt was quite noticeable when you start paying attention.
Through the '50's there are a lot of business casual types. Then, in the late '70's, it gets progressively casual. And up to today where that background is almost comical when the 70 year olds are strolling about.
It's just a cultural aspect, connected to many other facets of the hobby. Interesting or entertaining depending on one's attitude. I have an old stack of The Way of the Zephyr where the Lincoln owners all look like they just came from church... well, not in this century, the 1980's.
Alwayd thought about writing a book on the history of the hobby.
Bernie
Maybe, although all the cars on the street perpendicular to the parade road seem to be everyday cars of roughtl the same vintage as the '34 Packard -- two sedans and a delivery truck all in blackwalls. And I see a lot of ties, and hats seem to be light-colored fedoras and caps. If I had to guess, I would probably guess the picture is from the mid 1930s, too. But just a guess!
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Thanks, all, for the replies. Makes sense that the higher-end you go, the more cars are in large collections. If you have a serious boatload of dough to spend on cars, you're probably going to buy a bunch of cars rather than just one, or two (or three).
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I saw from an advertisement in Keith Martin's Sports Car Market that RM Sotheby's January auction in Phoenix is auctioning off seven V16 Cadillacs from the collection of John D. Groendyke . (See the descriptions and a picture below from the press release.) It brings up a question, I think: What proportion of high-end pre-war cars, like Cadillac V16s, are in large collections these days? When it comes to high-end cars like that, how many of the cars are owned by people with small collections versus those with large ones? You can get a little bit of a sense of that from looking through the CCCA member directory, but I assume that a lot of the large-collection owners don't fill those out so I don't know how accurate that info is.
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1) A 1930 Cadillac V-16 Sport Phaeton by Fleetwood. This genuine, exceptional example is restored in striking colors and is fully matching numbers complete with its original chassis, engine, axles, coachwork, and beyond. The Sport Phaeton was formerly owned for three decades by CCCA member Walden J. Schmitz, who purchased it from the estate of its original owner in the early 1960s. Schmitz restored the car and took it to CCCA meets through the early 1970s, after which he put it in his living room, until it was sold from his estate in 1998. The car has had a believed four private owners over the course of its nearly 90-year life (Est. $900,000 – $1,200,000).
2) a 1935 Cadillac V-16 Imperial Convertible Sedan by Fleetwood, formerly of the Richard Gold, Dr. Barbara Atwood, and Andrews Collections, wearing a well-maintained restoration by Steve Babinsky (Est. $600,000 – $750,000).
3) A 1933 Cadillac V-16 All-Weather Phaeton, restored with a correct Fleetwood body and formerly of the Fred Weber and Aaron Weiss collections (Est. $300,000 – $350,000);
4) A 1936 Cadillac V-16 Town Sedan by Fleetwood, the sole survivor in this style, sporting a well-preserved restoration by Fran Roxas and formerly of the noted William Ruger, Jr. Collection (Est. $250,000 – $300,000);
5)} 1939 Cadillac V-16 Convertible Coupe by Fleetwood, a very rare second-generation V-16, one of just seven built and formerly in the long-term ownership of Bob Hannay (Est. $225,000 – $275,000);
6) A 1931 Cadillac V-16 Seven-Passenger Imperial Sedan by Fleetwood, among the finest original, unrestored V-16s, beautifully preserved and with known history from new. The Imperial Sedan was formerly owned by noted restorer “Cadillac Jim” Pearson (Est. $100,000 – $150,000); and
7) A 1932 Cadillac V-16 Five-Passenger Sedan by Fleetwood, beautifully restored in the original color of Viceroy Maroon and an ideal CARavan and tour automobile (Est. $175,000 – $225,000).
Among the cars:
Insurance quotes for antique cars by era (both car and owner)
in General Discussion
Posted · Edited by 1935Packard (see edit history)
That seemed fishy to me, too. As Steve points out, what about all the Model As, etc? I can imagine 30s cars being 10%, or even 5%, but less than 1% seemed unlikely. But who knows.
UPDATE: I sent the author an e-mail asking about some of these numbers, will post an update in this thread if I hear anything.