Jump to content

Where do you think the pick up truck market is heading?


Larry Schramm
 Share

Recommended Posts

With the price of fuel now more than double in just a little over a year, what is your opinion on the truck market going forward? 

 

Is there a consensus that the direction that the truck market will continue to stay hot or slow down and people trade out of their trucks into smaller more fuel efficient vehicles?

 

Your thoughts?

Edited by Larry Schramm (see edit history)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the truck market will soften like it did in 2008-2009.  Those who do not need them will move to something more fuel efficient and it will be a buyers market for those needing/still looking for one.  The longer prices stay high, the more transition there will be.  If gas prices fall, many will move back into their trucks and large SUVs.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the market for commercial use will stay more-or-less proportional to business contraction/expansion.  There may be some downgrading from full-size to mid-size, although there's not much difference anymore in purchase price and mpg.

 

The private market may slow down and/or downsize from full to mid, although I'd guess mid-size already has a big chunk of private purchases.  It will be interesting to see how models like the Ford Maverick and Hyundai Santa Cruz are received.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course we're not the typical public,

but most of us could not haul our trailers and vintage cars with a mid-sized pickup or car-based crossover.

Generally, nothing less than a 3/4 ton is really safe and reasonable for our purposes, at least as I see it.

What I have will need to last a bit longer,

and I'll just deal with the hopefully-temporary fuel prices.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In some configurations, today's pickups offer some amazing fuel mileage, all things considered. Mid-20's is realistic for the type of driver who never tows or hauls. Just yesterday, you had to buy a compact pickup with a weak-kneed engine to approach those numbers. I've seen folks complain about 16mph for a 4wd with a powerful V8 and big tires. Once, a plain-Jane 6 cylinder with a stick would struggle for that number. Hybrids and electrics will push those numbers much further.

 

If prices stay at this height or above for more than a few months, there will be a real shift in what folks are buying...but if they stay at this level for long the economy will shift into reverse and folks won't be buying anything, anyway.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some one told to buy this 7 years ago.. Truck

 

Four-cylinder turbocharged pony cars.  My uncle gets 42 miles per gallon  on the highway..  

 

Not sure if anyone will buy a New Truck any time soon. They are asking 85K for them..   That was for a chevy high country truck..

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The people that need and use a truck will keep them. Those that buy them just because they're the current hot set up will trade and move to something smaller. I remember back in the '08,'09 recession that Expeditions and Suburbans were filling the used car lots. Crew cabs make great, versatile, all around family vehicles, but they aren't the best for long commutes. 100 to 150 mile daily commutes are common in the Bay Area. I've always lived close to work, and now that I'm retired I don't have any commute at all. I'll just hold onto my current truck, though the good deals will start appearing soon.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last fall after looking for about year I bought a new to me truck. By holding out I ended up paying about 30% more than when I started looking. Actually I ended up with a truck that was a little older than I wanted but staying within my budget. SO, I would surmise judging from my past experiences and luck, that the pricing of used and new trucks will significantly decrease now that I bought on the high end ! And the fact that I have been holding out to sell my 'old' truck. I work construction so a full size truck is a necessity. I do have a second vehicle as a backup that needs replaced soon. Its an Expedition. I would very much like to replace it with something smaller and more fuel efficient. As for MPG, when I bought my F150 I wanted to make sure it could pull my trailers, I have a 16' deck and a 16' box. I was certain I needed a v8 like the truck that I was currently using. I ended up with an eco boost v6. That motor has more than enough power to do the job and I figured better the gas mileage. I baby driving it, mix between highway and local, and without pulling a trailer it barely hits 15.7 mpg. Quite a big dissapointment mileage wise. 

My wifes mustang with the v6 gets 24 mpg average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Restorer32:  My '01 Dodge Turbo Diesel (built in St. Louis!) just turned over 60k miles!  It will probably outlast me AND my son with care and maintenance...  Most of the time there is a 24' enclosed trailer following it.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can’t help but wonder if gas price panic really sets in what are all the folks going to buy if they decide to trade. Many companies have dumped cars of all types and especially small ones.  Then add shortages of what is still being sold and look out wallet. Only thing makes any sense to me is to do what I have done every time there is a panic. Keep what I have and plan accordingly.  

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, TAKerry said:

Last fall after looking for about year I bought a new to me truck. By holding out I ended up paying about 30% more than when I started looking. Actually I ended up with a truck that was a little older than I wanted but staying within my budget. SO, I would surmise judging from my past experiences and luck, that the pricing of used and new trucks will significantly decrease now that I bought on the high end ! And the fact that I have been holding out to sell my 'old' truck. I work construction so a full size truck is a necessity. I do have a second vehicle as a backup that needs replaced soon. Its an Expedition. I would very much like to replace it with something smaller and more fuel efficient. As for MPG, when I bought my F150 I wanted to make sure it could pull my trailers, I have a 16' deck and a 16' box. I was certain I needed a v8 like the truck that I was currently using. I ended up with an eco boost v6. That motor has more than enough power to do the job and I figured better the gas mileage. I baby driving it, mix between highway and local, and without pulling a trailer it barely hits 15.7 mpg. Quite a big dissapointment mileage wise. 

My wifes mustang with the v6 gets 24 mpg average.

 

 

  Weight and gears!

 

  Ben

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SC38dls said:

There was an ad on tv today for a Jeep (not sure what model) for a cost of $89,000 !!!  At that price I think the whole car market may be off the deep end. 
dave s 

 

I just saw the same ad it was for a Jeep Grand Wagoneer, I am in shock.....  Plus tax

Edited by John348 (see edit history)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was talking last night with my brother in-law who is in the market for a new truck.  He just came from the Ford and Chevy dealer and they had no trucks for sale.

 

I see where Ford has stopped taking orders for the new Maverick pickup until next year.  It is an apples and oranges comparison to a work truck but seems to have found a niche.

 

I work for a major trailer manufacturer that builds car haulers that can be pulled by a 3/4 ton pickup or bigger and it amazes me how many new trucks pull into our yard to hook up to their new trailers.  We have seen some cancellations but those are snatched up by the next person in line.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you can afford the 60K to 70K price of a new truck, then the price of gas will not effect your decision to buy, or not to buy. I payed 35K for my Silverado in 2009, so the gas will not be the factor to buy or not to buy. 

Edited by kingrudy (see edit history)
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, kingrudy said:

If you can afford the 60K to 70K price of a new truck

That's  the reason why I got a vintage truck.. I just could not bring myself to spend that kind of money on a truck..... purchase price, shipping cost, new tires,  powder coated rims, custom made exhaust system and tune up and I'm still way under $20k invested in this truck...plus I have the coolest looking truck when I go to Home Depot ! 😉

 

Steve

 

 

20211217_152651.jpg

Edited by STEVE POLLARD (see edit history)
  • Like 14
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, STEVE POLLARD said:

That's was the reason why I got a vintage truck.. I just could not bring myself to spend that kind of money on a truck..... purchase price, shipping cost, new tires,  powder coated rims, custom made exhaust system and tune up and I'm still way under $20k invested in this truck...plus I have the coolest looking truck when I go to Home Depot ! 😉

 

Steve

 

 

 

Same reason here.  The vintage trucks do the same job at less overall cost and no comparison in the smiles per miles.

My 66 4x4 is stock other than a gear vendors overdrive and the 78 4x4 has a 12v Cummins and 5spd.  
A pretty solid investment and lots of fun.

 

28CEBDC9-5F87-4834-A71C-91C62E3C7DD2.jpeg

EA208BF0-2546-4E0D-B04B-81EB5B702E54.jpeg

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For quite a few years I have calculated my cost per mile. Over the years 15-20 MPG vehicles have ranged inversely from $0.15 to the $0.25 per mile my Avalanche is getting. It has always been on the more expensive side for me. I doubt I will ever change. I look at what I have to give up to achieve that extra 10 or 15 cents per mile. A car that get 40 miles per gallon on $4.00 per gallon gas is still going to cost $0.10 per mile to operate. That gives me a $0.15 margin per mile to play in. And I wouldn't want to give up what it takes to drive the 40 MPG car in comfort or cost of the car.

 

I also top my cars off at 200 miles. I never roll up a lot on the pump like some of the pictures on the internet these days.

 

I bought my 68,000 mile '05 Avalanche about a year ago for $10,000. I will always have a 4WD truck of some sort, probably two.

 

My daughter says it's big. I'll pay.

Avalanche-1.jpg.49a15bee3af71f4182e5f3f9e8de67a9.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Peter S said:

What's up with the Tesla truck??

Texas.  That’s where it will be built from what is posted on the internet.  The factory in Austin is just ramping up to make cars now.  Fremont CA has no spare production capability for the truck and car sales are doing well. In the mean time Rivian has been making and delivering electric trucks that are more mainstream than Tesla’s truck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The prices have softened here in Ontario likely due to gas hitting over $8.00 an Imperial gallon 4.5 Litres vs 3.8  Litres in a US gallon. The lots are getting full again at a lot of new car stores, especially the Ram/ Stellanis dealers. Also the fact that the dealers are not offering any discounts off of MSRP right now. The local repair garages are very busy and getting somewhat frustrated by the lack of inventory at the local NAPA and other parts stores. But even that has eased a bit.

 As for me I haven't even started my 2003 Ford F 150 up for quite some time. It's a Harley-Davidson edition with the 5.4 Triton Supercharged engine that swigs premium fuel. It needs work so it's likely going up for sale when it gets a bit nicer weather here. I see a V6 pickup in my near future!

deccars 035.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, STEVE POLLARD said:

That's was the reason why I got a vintage truck.. I just could not bring myself to spend that kind of money on a truck..... purchase price, shipping cost, new tires,  powder coated rims, custom made exhaust system and tune up and I'm still way under $20k invested in this truck...plus I have the coolest looking truck when I go to Home Depot ! 😉

 

Steve

 

 

20211217_152651.jpg

Great looking truck. IMO you could keep it for 10 years and still sell it for more than you have in it. Who knows what new trucks will be selling for at that time. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have a 21 Ram 3500 tow rig and a 1964 D100 with a slant six for a DD.

Big difference between a Home Depot rig and the dependability of an over the road tow rig that might might find me thousands of mile from home with something valuable in the trailer.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, JACK M said:

I have a 21 Ram 3500 tow rig and a 1964 D100 with a slant six for a DD.

Big difference between a Home Depot rig and the dependability of an over the road tow rig that might might find me thousands of mile from home with something valuable in the trailer.

I’d wager your 1964 will be more dependable. And if it does give you trouble you won’t need to wait for a shop to get you in so their computer can scan your truck to find which sensors to replace in a trial and error routine to get you going again.  Next time you’re in the waiting room while you’re getting your new truck serviced for emissions related problems just think how much more enjoyable your day would be if you were listening to the sweet hum of your slant six!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Modeleh said:

the sweet hum of your slant six!

Great little beater pick up, but not a long haul tow rig.

I agree on all that computer crap. I have a few thousand miles on the Ram and have at least checked the oil and added that pesky DEF a few times. I dont think I have ever seen the batteries.

My opinion about adjusting the heat, radio etc. on screen is more distracting and dangerous than regular knobs. But it sure is comfortable and tows nice.

Towing policy in place. 🤞

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, JACK M said:

My opinion about adjusting the heat, radio etc. on screen is more distracting and dangerous than regular knobs. But it sure is comfortable and tows nice.

I would agree. In our Nautilus everything is push button or touch screen. We used to be able to do things without taking our eyes off the road but not anymore. Do knobs and switches spread Covid or what?????

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My son just too delivery on his new 2021 1500 AT4 Diesel pickup.  It has both analog and digital gauges (he likes the analog).  The chips for the heated seats will be included in a recall when available, so they currently are inoperable.   He was able to acquire this truck that was already on order from a local dealer in Spokane.  New orders for these trucks is well into next year.  Towing specs and mileage are impressive:

 

"A 3.0-liter I6 is the most powerful offering, creating 277 hp and 460 lb-ft of towing capacity. Converted to towing capacity, that is only 9,100 pounds.  Combined fuel economy is 26 mpg and the 2021 GMC Sierra 1500 Diesel can reach 30 mpg on the highway run. But, if you choose an all-wheel drive, the truck consumes 24 mpg combined. A ten-speed automatic transmission sends power to wheels."  (2021 GMC Sierra 1500 Diesel Review: AT4 and Denali - Big Pickup Trucks)

Edited by Mark Shaw (see edit history)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...