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Electric vehicles, oil demand, internal combustion...a good read


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1 hour ago, nickelroadster said:

Cars that get better gas mileage actually are usually lighter and do not put as much wear and tear on the road system.  Semis actually damage the roads more than anything else.

 

At least you do not live in Michigan. The max road weight is more that 2X the federal limit.

 

Michigan has the highest truck weight limits in North America, that can be utilized on a regular basis, with a limit of 164,000 lb gross weight limit,

 

And you would like to know why the roads in Mich. are worse than awful.

Edited by Larry Schramm (see edit history)
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Well said Keith. Yes , it is the cost of EV's that make them an option only for comparatively affluent households. Up front costs are very high compared to a similar class of IC vehicle. Cheaper for energy to run , but the break even point is probably up to a decade or more after purchase in many cases.

 And my personal pet peeve, those of us in the middle class end up footing the bill for all the EV incentive rebates. Rebates that will in most cases be paid to people that are already doing a lot better than most of us. The middle class { below the middle class most are paying very little if any tax already } subsidizing the upper middle class and wealthier.

Edited by 1912Staver (see edit history)
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There are people who have bigger houses than me, have more expensive cars than me, get more tax breaks on investments than I get, have big dollar collections of cars than I can imagine. It’s how it is in the world, I make the best of what I have been able to do in life and pay as little attention to the perceived inequality in the world as I can.  You can complain but other than a bit of possible stress relief it doesn’t change anything.  Make the best of what you got.  Turn on the TV and watch what the people in the Ukraine are going though today if you need a refresher course in how good you have it.

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The people with those bigger houses pay from them out of their own pocket , not a portion of my tax bill.

But yes, I am aware enough to know that in general tax policy favors higher income earners over average persons. 

For example dividend income on investments is taxed at a much lower rate than direct employment income.

 If there was a $20,000.00 EV on the market that was a competitor to the typical entry level $16,000 -$20,000.00 small car that many of us are limited to it would be a level playing field.

 But the cheapest Canadian EV is $40,000.00. Way out of reach to many / most. But we are the ones who foot the bulk of the bill for the rebates.

 Yes, I am very thankful I live in Western Canada, but the fact that my standard of living is increasingly slipping downward is hardly a thing to celebrate.

Edited by 1912Staver (see edit history)
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I wake up every day for the past 10 years with the realization that someone else’s dumb driving move has left me paralyzed for life.  I can’t do what 99.9% of you do here daily including driving anything besides my wheelchair. I found out dwelling on it and the unfairness of it all was not doing anything to improve my situation.  What I  did and continue to do is making the best of what I have left for whatever time is left.  So yes, life is not fair at times and if the level of unfairness is someone is getting a bigger tax break than me is my big issue, consider yourself lucky it’s not something worse.  On a side note, if lots of people buy EVs there will be more cheaper used cars on the market to chose from.  

Edited by TerryB (see edit history)
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I understand your situation, and yes you are facing one of the most unfair situations of anyone on this forum. Your message has the wisdom that can only come from living through a true tragedy. 

 I do consider myself very lucky in many regards. And I am very glad you have found the inner strength to deal with your situation as well as you have.

Yes, 99.9 % of us don't ever stop and reflect on just how good things really are in the full context of our lives.

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1 hour ago, 1912Staver said:

I understand your situation, and yes you are facing one of the most unfair situations of anyone on this forum. Your message has the wisdom that can only come from living through a true tragedy. 

 I do consider myself very lucky in many regards. And I am very glad you have found the inner strength to deal with your situation as well as you have.

Yes, 99.9 % of us don't ever stop and reflect on just how good things really are in the full context of our lives.

Greg, I enjoy your comments on your car projects and now I even know you are a motorcycle guy too!  Small world!  When I was injured I was told the average life span for a person my age (60 at the time) was 7 to 10 years, this year is year ten.  I keep hoping I get a phone call to “extend” my body warranty but no luck so far.  The best I get is to extend my car warranty but what good will that do?

Take care my friend!

Edited by TerryB (see edit history)
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There are used ev cars in the 18 to 20 thousand range at least here were up until 2 months ago. On cars.com you can find used Chevy Bolts in that range. I have several friend who have purchased them through such sales. They are not rich. There will be a lot of used ev's in a few years. The trick will be to get one that wasn't abused as it is with all used cars.

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From 1912Staver:

The people with those bigger houses pay from them out of their own pocket , not a portion of my tax bill.

But yes, I am aware enough to know that in general tax policy favors higher income earners over average persons. 

For example dividend income on investments is taxed at a much lower rate than direct employment income.

 If there was a $20,000.00 EV on the market that was a competitor to the typical entry level $16,000 -$20,000.00 small car that many of us are limited to it would be a level playing field.

 But the cheapest Canadian EV is $40,000.00. Way out of reach to many / most. But we are the ones who foot the bulk of the bill for the rebates.

 Yes, I am very thankful I live in Western Canada, but the fact that my standard of living is increasingly slipping downward is hardly a thing to celebrate.

 

I always told myself that there will be persons with more money than I have and I will not be the poorest person in the bunch.  So far my prediction has held true.  I just make do with what I have and am happy for it. 

 

The most important and most valuable thing is a family that enjoys each others company and we can laugh, play, and mourn together.  This was brought into clear focus when our oldest daughter passed last year at 35 leaving a husband and two boys 3 & 6.  She went to bed one night and did not wake up. They think she had some type of cardiac event.  NOT COVID, and no co-morbidity issues.  Here today, gone tomorrow. 

Edited by Larry Schramm (see edit history)
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25 minutes ago, Bhigdog said:

Wondering if rapid charge vs slow charge shortens battery life..............Bob

The general consensus on EV car forums seems to be that DC fast charging will reduce the life of the battery more than the slower Level 1 or Level 2 AC charging. Another general consensus is that charging to only 80% most of the time (100% only immediately before departing on long trips) is also easier on the batteries.

 

On the other hand, it seems many manufacturers make no recommendation implying that they believe their design is robust enough to have a long life either way. There are some older EVs with 200K and 300K miles with original batteries.

 

Battery life seems to be more dependent on the vehicle design. The older Nissan Leaf had, near as I can tell, no thermal management on their batteries and those cars can have significant battery degradation. Tesla, at least since the introduction of the Model S ten years ago, uses active heating and cooling with liquid coolant for their batteries. The EVs with robust temperature management, like Tesla and all the newer designs from other manufacturers, seem to have better battery life than those with no management or simply air cooling.

 

Battery chemistry makes a difference too. For at least some of the standard range models Tesla is now using lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that apparently can go pretty much indefinitely with little or no degradation. They also pose less of a fire risk than other lithium ion chemistries. The cheaper Chinese EVs for their domestic market are also using LFP batteries not for the extended life but simply because they are cheaper with the drawback that they have a lower energy density so the vehicle range is reduced.

 

For what it is worth, the manual for the non-Tesla EV that I recently got suggests charging the batteries to 80% most of the time with a once a month slow AC charge to 100%. I think that once a month 100% charge is to help keep the battery management system calibrated. In any case, the drive train and battery warranty of 100K miles or 10 years is in effect regardless of how you mistreat your batteries.

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The first generation Chevrolet Volt had significant temperature management of the battery pack. 

 

Lithium-Ion batteries like about 72degF and that is what the battery thermal management system strove for to get good battery life.  When the car was put on charging mode, it would warm or cool the battery coolant depending on the battery temps.

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4 minutes ago, Bhigdog said:

Are there any reports of thermal runaways with li ion batteries......bob

 

Is that not the suspected reason for the sinking of the ship full of cars coming from Europe last month?  And yes there are other reports of batteries with manufacturing defects that start on fire themselves.

 

Also don't forget the battery fires in computers and cell phones a few years back.

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I ask because we used Ni Cad batteries in our aircraft and there were instances of serious thermal runaways. Our batteries were contained in stainless steel. There were specified engine starting and batt charging sequences to be followed with batt temp monitoring and batt isolation switches in the cockpit if needed.

I realize they are different animals but when I hear liquid batt cooling systems being required it sparks my concern..........Bob

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14 hours ago, Larry Schramm said:

Michigan has the highest truck weight limits in North America, that can be utilized on a regular basis, with a limit of 164,000 lb gross weight limit


we have 150k lbs trucks routinely used on our roads and they totally trash it


 

out west they get up to nearly 300k lbs on the road trains but they’re not in the cities

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The problem with used EV's is the gamble on battery life and expense of replacement when the time comes,  which is most likely sooner than later if you are buying it more than a couple years old.   Most people are buying used stuff because they can't afford new and to buy something like that knowing you might have to replace them sooner rather than later is going to be a hard pill to swallow.  

There are still alot of people that struggle to buy a $5000 car.  I wonder where it will leave them? 

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This whole switch to electric vehicles is way more complex than people want it to be, especially in today's world.  It is not as simple as buying an electric car and replacing a gas car and energy problems are solved.  Where does the nickel and lithium come from to make all those EV batteries?  How do you actually charge all of those EV cars on a power grid that has not been updated and would take trillions to improve?  Where do you get the fuel to create the electricity to power all of the cars?

 

Have you been following some of the recent news out about some of this stuff?

 

Nickel's price surge could threaten automakers' ambitious electric-vehicle plans (msn.com)

Electric car prices could go up even as fuel prices soar - The Verge

Russia-Ukraine War Alters Europe's Plan for Energy Independence | Engineering News-Record (enr.com)

The case for hydrogen trucks | Grid limitations will make long-distance battery-electric haulage 'near impossible': Hyzon Motors CEO | Recharge (rechargenews.com)

Clean energy advocates say NH grid changes aren't nearly enough (palmbeachpost.com)

Palo Alto's climate goals threatened by inadequate power grid | A New Shade of Green | Sherry Listgarten | Palo Alto Online |

An electric vehicle is one way to save big as gas prices rise. These issues limit who can benefit (kcra.com)

California, Facing Power Crisis, Frets Over Electric Car Charging Routines (newsweek.com)

 

These are big problems and not sure governments, corporations, and people will be able to work together to solve them.  

 

 

 

 

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I decided I was going to talk to a person of authority about some of these deep seated problems that need resolution. My wife and I like going out for a few meals a week in restaurants within a 15 mile radius of our house. So when I see one of those important and influential people walk in or I see them on the street I am going to take just a few minutes to give a little sincere input.

 

We are going out to lunch in a little while. Maybe I will see one today. But I have been watching for a while. Do they have some different area where they are completely separated and hidden? I keep looking.

 

I would hate to think the people running things were so far out of touch they weren't even seen in a grocery store. We were in one this morning and I didn't see any while I was there.

 

Anyone on the forum one of those influential decision makers?

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1 hour ago, kfle said:

This whole switch to electric vehicles is way more complex than people want it to be, especially in today's world.  It is not as simple as buying an electric car and replacing a gas car and energy problems are solved.  Where does the nickel and lithium come from to make all those EV batteries?  How do you actually charge all of those EV cars on a power grid that has not been updated and would take trillions to improve?  Where do you get the fuel to create the electricity to power all of the cars?

 

Have you been following some of the recent news out about some of this stuff?

 

Nickel's price surge could threaten automakers' ambitious electric-vehicle plans (msn.com)

Electric car prices could go up even as fuel prices soar - The Verge

Russia-Ukraine War Alters Europe's Plan for Energy Independence | Engineering News-Record (enr.com)

The case for hydrogen trucks | Grid limitations will make long-distance battery-electric haulage 'near impossible': Hyzon Motors CEO | Recharge (rechargenews.com)

Clean energy advocates say NH grid changes aren't nearly enough (palmbeachpost.com)

Palo Alto's climate goals threatened by inadequate power grid | A New Shade of Green | Sherry Listgarten | Palo Alto Online |

An electric vehicle is one way to save big as gas prices rise. These issues limit who can benefit (kcra.com)

California, Facing Power Crisis, Frets Over Electric Car Charging Routines (newsweek.com)

 

These are big problems and not sure governments, corporations, and people will be able to work together to solve them.  

 

 

 

 

Not a problem. Don't fret about it.

We'll just sprinkle green pixie dust on everything and declare an end to carbon and bad weather............Bob

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2 hours ago, kfle said:

This whole switch to electric vehicles is way more complex than people want it to be, especially in today's world.  It is not as simple as buying an electric car and replacing a gas car and energy problems are solved.  Where does the nickel and lithium come from to make all those EV batteries?  How do you actually charge all of those EV cars on a power grid that has not been updated and would take trillions to improve?  Where do you get the fuel to create the electricity to power all of the cars?

 

Have you been following some of the recent news out about some of this stuff?

 

Nickel's price surge could threaten automakers' ambitious electric-vehicle plans (msn.com)

Electric car prices could go up even as fuel prices soar - The Verge

Russia-Ukraine War Alters Europe's Plan for Energy Independence | Engineering News-Record (enr.com)

The case for hydrogen trucks | Grid limitations will make long-distance battery-electric haulage 'near impossible': Hyzon Motors CEO | Recharge (rechargenews.com)

Clean energy advocates say NH grid changes aren't nearly enough (palmbeachpost.com)

Palo Alto's climate goals threatened by inadequate power grid | A New Shade of Green | Sherry Listgarten | Palo Alto Online |

An electric vehicle is one way to save big as gas prices rise. These issues limit who can benefit (kcra.com)

California, Facing Power Crisis, Frets Over Electric Car Charging Routines (newsweek.com)

 

These are big problems and not sure governments, corporations, and people will be able to work together to solve them.  

 

 

 

 

The thing you have to pay attention to what they don't say when promoting electric vehicles.  What they don't say is how they are going to increase production and distribution of electricity in large enough quantities to supply the additional demand.  Currently available green electrical energy production won't fill the gap.  And you still have to address the demand for materials needed to fabricate batteries in large quantities.  

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Here is a pretty good video that shows what my nephew told me a couple of years ago.

 

I was talking with a car salesman friend who told me he knew a young man who was buying cells and doing a steady business in servicing EV's. The older Prius cars are 20 years old now.

 

There is still a lot of home mechanic stuff out there. And you do need diagnostic tools. This week I had to replace one of the upstream O2 sensors on my ICE powered Avalanche. There are four sensors in all but I didn't want to just change them without knowing the specific of what I did. I knew what and why.

 

My left bank had run rich so we took a good 15 mile drive with 60 MPH times when I took my wife out for lunch. The codes cleared during the drive and my wife noticed it was nice and smooth again. She asked how much I thought I saved doing it myself. I said probably $400 if I had just taken it in and said "Runs rough. Fix it." And it may have been a crap shoot whether it was fixed.

She asked if I used the diagnostic tool I bought for the BMW. "Yes". "How much was that?" "Something like $550." "Then the tool has paid for itself again".

 

A lot of things never change. Understanding and dealing with technology is more a matter of willingness than complexity. The young people of today will be swapping out those battery modules to keep their cars going and figuring out how to boost the voltage to go faster, just second nature to them.

 

In the 1990s I had a used Allen oscilloscope. Being in good graces today maybe I will look at a new Hantek or a PICO. There has never been a new technology that did not become routine as it aged.

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2 hours ago, A Woolf said:

The thing you have to pay attention to what they don't say when promoting electric vehicles.  What they don't say is how they are going to increase production and distribution of electricity in large enough quantities to supply the additional demand.  Currently available green electrical energy production won't fill the gap.  And you still have to address the demand for materials needed to fabricate batteries in large quantities.  

So your trying to say that have no idea how this is go to work, really? Don't you just put a bigger fuse in? just joking

The pre-emptive solution has been going on for some time now. I post this a few pages back, you must of have missed it. This is just one example of many projects going on all over the country that are going to be completed in the next 4-6 years.

https://www.ewweb.com/green-market/wind/article/21234724/new-york-bight-offshore-wind-farm-leases-generate-437billion?utm_source=EW%20G-Biz&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS220224032&o_eid=8351J7726001H1W&rdx.ident%5Bpull%5D=omeda%7C8351J7726001H1W&oly_enc_id=8351J7726001H1W 

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5 hours ago, auburnseeker said:

The problem with used EV's is the gamble on battery life and expense of replacement when the time comes,  which is most likely sooner than later if you are buying it more than a couple years old.   Most people are buying used stuff because they can't afford new and to buy something like that knowing you might have to replace them sooner rather than later is going to be a hard pill to swallow.  

There are still alot of people that struggle to buy a $5000 car.  I wonder where it will leave them? 

So no different to buying a second hand ice car. Though in an ev the car will tell you how many miles the battery pack can do .

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Electric cars are going to happen despite the hurdles. Market forces are pushing in that direction. It's inevitable. As I said in an earlier post, it will be decades before they're the majority and there are a lot of hurdles to clear, but there will be more and more of them each year, more and better products, improved energy storage and transfer, and they will get more affordable. That's just how technology works.

 

I don't think that any auto company will see the Eeyore comments and say, "Holy crap, this guy on the internet is right! What a mistake we're making! Let's go back to making 1968 Buicks instead."

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Ev's will happen mostly because of Gov't coercion. When  you legislate out Ice engines,  it leaves only one alternative.  They have already projected what they are going to do and given dates.  You think all the people in CA really want to go all battery on all small engines in 2 years?  Gov't is forcing it.  Take away all regulation and see what happens.  Yes a percentage will go electric to virtue signal they are saving the environment(which we can argue to the end of time is better or not for the environment as each have pitfalls in many ways, from supply of materials to build right down to to actual pollutants)  then others will look at all options and decide what is best for their actual usage,  based on real need and not Gov't interference.  

 

Someone that drives very few miles a year but plans to keep a vehicle for 20 years or more,  the ICE is actually better.  I doubt there is a battery out there that will last 20 plus years especially without regular charging cycles.  I can park my truck for 6 months , fire it up and go across the country the next day. Should be able to do that for 30 years without a major rebuild of anything.  How are vehicles like that figured in.   Not everything is driven to death and long term ownership is not unheard of. 

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Randy

I admire your concern for those who you feel might be left behind, it is very admirable. The EV is not like the HD television signal where all of the TV's became obsolete and everyone had to purchase a new flat screen TV. There will still be new ICE vehicles manufactured, as well as the used car market.

 

If you think for one minute that the auto manufacture's (or any manufacturer of any disposable appliance) want any product they produce to last 20 years of service they would have been out of business a long time ago.   

 

 Government coercion does not make sense, this technology is going on world wide, I came across this yesterday, a GM shareholders report from 2017, and this was printed in the beginning of a petroleum industry friendly administration. What about the foreign manufacturers like Volvo? BMW? Mercedes?  There are only 3 1/2 automobile manufactures in the USA, and all have to compete with foreign manufactures. So you can look at this any way you want, but the bottom line is just that, the BOTTOM LINE and keeping the share holders happy.

 

As a car people we should embrace the new technology. I do remember when people were skeptical about automatic transmissions, that continued up until the late 60's,  now try to find a car without an automatic transmission.

 

If you are not buying a new car I don't understand why you are complaining. if your doing this to be an advocate for others I would not worry, people will figure it out, just like they did with their TV sets. 

 

 

 

  

IMG_7403.JPG

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I will hold off buying an EV until the states, PA in particular, figure out how they are going to replace those gas taxes they are not collecting on electric vehicles.  I suspect whatever solution they come up with will make owning and driving an EV just as expensive as owning and driving a gasser.

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Moak, it is different than buying a second hand gas car. From all that I have read, an electric car battery will need to be replaced at about 8 years of service or around 100,000 miles. The replacement costs average about $8000, with the Chevrolet bolt and some foreign makes as high as $15,000. I keep my gas powered vehicles in great shape. They are serviced by dealers and I have them detailed at least twice a year. After 8 years they have relatively low miles and look like they just came off the dealers lot. Who, in eight years, would want to purchase a used car knowing that you will need to invest around $8000 for a new battery? I would bet that in the future we will have used car lot's specializing in hundreds of cars that all look great, but all need batteries. Would anyone buy a gasoline powered car knowing they need a new engine? It's not as simple as it sounds and we all, as a country/world, have years of work ahead of us before electric vehicles are the norm.

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53 minutes ago, 46 woodie said:

Moak, it is different than buying a second hand gas car. From all that I have read, an electric car battery will need to be replaced at about 8 years of service or around 100,000 miles. . .

EVs in the US are required to have their batteries warrantied for 8 years or 100,000 miles. In California that is 10 years or 150,000 miles.

 

Are you claiming that the day (or mile) after the warranty expires the battery rolls over and dies? Seems like the manufacturers would build in a bigger margin into their designs to avoid warranty expenses.

 

And the typical failure mode is for a gradual decrease in capacity. So your 300 mile EV might only be good for 240 miles at the end of the warranty period (usually the warranty guarantees 80% of original capacity). Hardly a disaster that requires an immediate replacement. Though it would probably reduce the market value of the car and maybe mean you would want to sell it to someone who doesn’t need as long a range.

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I had a Chrysler minivan, 2008 model with low miles, maybe 40,000 at the time. The engine developed a knocking sound around 2013 but ran great.  I asked the dealer to investigate, their response was they thought a new engine was in order with a price tag of $6000 to do the job.  I told them no and continued to drive it as is.  Sold it in 2017 to get a smaller vehicle. It had 65,000 miles on it and no rust. Got $2800 for it because of the engine knock.  A lower battery travel range or knocking engine is not the end of the world.  In ten years I expect battery repair or replacement will be on par with gas engine overhaul or replacement costs.

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Only difference in cost between the two will be the environmental fee they slap on the battery disposal/ recycling,  where they will actually pay you for the scrap engine a few bucks for the metal.  Remember the people pushing hardest for green energy are the ones that hate pollution of any kind and will start realizing the environmental aspect of the battery recycling.   Which they are kind of keeping hidden in the dark.  Especially when you will have to transport it to the 3 rd world countries to be stripped down because they won't want that activity done in our back yard. 

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8 minutes ago, auburnseeker said:

Only difference in cost between the two will be the environmental fee they slap on the battery disposal/ recycling,  where they will actually pay you for the scrap engine a few bucks for the metal.  Remember the people pushing hardest for green energy are the ones that hate pollution of any kind and will start realizing the environmental aspect of the battery recycling.   Which they are kind of keeping hidden in the dark.  Especially when you will have to transport it to the 3 rd world countries to be stripped down because they won't want that activity done in our back yard. 

Randy you are such an optimist!  It’s possible the recycling value of the batteries could offset the price significantly.  The chance of it happening is as good as your gloom and doom predictions are.  Time of course will tell the story.  

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There are an awful lot of regular batteries retired from use each year. And quite a few cases of less than ideal lead recovery operations, particularly but not limited to 3 rd. world countries. Local to me there was at one time a battery  recycling plant. Shut down for pollution violations and eventually a very costly clean up. As far as I know all local scrap batteries are now shipped to Mexico and overseas. It just costs too much to deal with them correctly in Canada. I suspect many areas of the U.S. are probably in a similar situation.

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7 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:

There are an awful lot of regular batteries retired from use each year. And quite a few cases of less than ideal lead recovery operations, particularly but not limited to 3 rd. world countries. Local to me there was at one time a battery  recycling plant. Shut down for pollution violations and eventually a very costly clean up. As far as I know all local scrap batteries are now shipped to Mexico and overseas. It just costs too much to deal with them correctly in Canada. I suspect many areas of the U.S. are probably in a similar situation.

Same thing here in PA a number of years back. Recycle facility eventually ended up causing major pollution, area had to be dug up and back filled. It's still surrounded by a rusting chain link fence with warning signs.......

People need to realize that a civilized society needs energy and there ain't no free lunch.....Bob

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4 hours ago, ply33 said:

EVs in the US are required to have their batteries warrantied for 8 years or 100,000 miles. In California that is 10 years or 150,000 miles.

 

Are you claiming that the day (or mile) after the warranty expires the battery rolls over and dies? Seems like the manufacturers would build in a bigger margin into their designs to avoid warranty expenses.

 

And the typical failure mode is for a gradual decrease in capacity. So your 300 mile EV might only be good for 240 miles at the end of the warranty period (usually the warranty guarantees 80% of original capacity). Hardly a disaster that requires an immediate replacement. Though it would probably reduce the market value of the car and maybe mean you would want to sell it to someone who doesn’t need as long a range.

Is that a full cost of replacement warranty or pro rata. I'm guessing the latter...........Bob

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3 hours ago, Bhigdog said:

Same thing here in PA a number of years back. Recycle facility eventually ended up causing major pollution, area had to be dug up and back filled. It's still surrounded by a rusting chain link fence with warning signs.......

People need to realize that a civilized society needs energy and there ain't no free lunch.....Bob

And.. same thing in Richmond, VA. Corner of Bellemede Road and Route 1. Big clean up. 

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