Electric vehicles, oil demand, internal combustion...a good read

[trimacar]

Here's a good read on crude oil prices and why they are rising...

 

Why Oil Can Go Higher (msn.com)

 

If you don't want to read the whole thing, here's an excerpt which is a viewpoint I've not seen before, note the "peak" in IC use predicted:

 

“What about EVs?” you say. “Won’t they cause crude demand to drop?”

The answer is yes… but not tomorrow.

Currently, more than half of every barrel of crude oil becomes fuel for an internal combustion vehicle. So it makes sense that EVs would reduce net demand for crude… but that day is not likely to arrive any time soon.

Even though EVs will capture a growing share of the global auto market, the total auto market will continue to grow larger. That means the number of gas-powered automobiles on the road will continue to increase for several more years.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration says the total number of internal combustion vehicles on the world’s roads will not peak until 2038.

Meanwhile, because crude demand from other end users will continue growing past that date, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects worldwide oil demand to be at least 25% higher in 2050 than it is today.

In other words, most conventional oil-consuming technologies will die a slow death, no matter how rapidly EVs conquer the personal transportation industry.   [an Eric Fry quote from his investor newsletter SPECULATOR, bold type added]

[Mikefit]

Just my thoughts 

The little electric cars will not be delivering freight still need big trucks (diesel engines)

To refine dieen esel fuel you have gasoline as quickly by product so gasoline will still be around 

They brag about the cost of recharging their cars

For just penny's. Don't the pay road tax when they get their plates, or register the car that needs, to be added to the Miles Per or if you going to compare gas to electric remove all road tax on the gasoline,when comparing them. Our am I not thinking right

 

[avgwarhawk]

Electric tractors are here. Some self drive from terminal to terminal. 

 

[Leif in Calif]

Think about how long it took cars to replace the horse. The German Army still had thousands of horses at the beginning of WWII, and some delivers were still made via horse and cart in the US in that period. It's happening and changes do happen faster these days, but we are still many decades from full electrification.

[1937hd45]

When will the new arrivals or working class members below the first rung of the ladder going to be able ( or have any desire) to own a used electric vehicle?

[George Smolinski]

Just where in hell are people going to mine all the minerals needed for the EV’s? The environmentalists don’t want a shovelful of earth turned over for mining, yet large numbers of them and others (including some here I imagine), think nothing about where those minerals are to be had. They don’t grow on trees, out in fields, or fall from the sky in little pellets we can go gather in our little mineral baskets. Until that side is factored in, it’s a fairy tale with huge subsidies courtesy of Uncle Sam. Without the subsidies, Musk would be a thousandaire not a billionaire.

[prewarnut]

....sounds like we again need to import from some unsavory countries (Australia excepted). Although Chile has a lot of reserves it doesn't mean their topography and country's infrastructure will allow full development....From the VW website:

 

[car crazy]

It is estimated that it takes 28,000 gallons of water on the average to fight a lithium-battery powered EV, vs. 300 gallons for an internal cumbustion powered vehicle, and can take many hours, even days, for an EV powered vehicle's fire to finally go out. Now just imagine an EV in the parking garage of a large building, or in your own garage.

Edited March 7, 2022 by car crazy (see edit history)

[kar3516]

The real issue for cross country travel is the absolute inconvenience of the time it takes to recharge and the number of charging stations it will take for people who all want to recharge at the same time.  When waiting in line for a charging station takes 30 min to an hour and charging takes 30 min to an hour I don’t see the majority of people signing up when they have to stop every four hours for a two hour recharging debacle.  It’s going to take a lot longer for adoption of electric drive vehicles for interstate travel than the green constituency thinks it will.

Edited March 7, 2022 by kar3516 (see edit history)

[Leif in Calif]

12 hours ago, 1937hd45 said:

When will the new arrivals or working class members below the first rung of the ladder going to be able ( or have any desire) to own a used electric vehicle?

We have a young friend who is just beginning her career as a public school teacher. She bought a used Fiat 500e for $10,000 to get there. A year ago she would have only paid $7K. 

[Matt Harwood]

You guys are certainly world-class experts at finding reasons why electric cars won't work. Glad you weren't around when the gasoline automobile was in its infancy. You'd have been all those farmers standing around saying, "Why should I try to find this dangerous flammable 'gasoline' stuff to power an expensive and unreliable 'automobile' when I can just let my old reliable horse eat grass wherever he wants?"

 

Or do you just assume that the way it is now is the way it always has been and that change has never happened? In 1912 there was a gas station on every corner and interstate travel by automobile was effortless and fast, right?

 

The electric car is where the gasoline car was in the early 20th century. Once the infrastructure evolved to support the automobile, travel became easier. Then superhighways. Service garages. Gas stations. Rest stops. Convenience stores. You think that technology and infrastructure won't continue to develop? That electricity storage mediums won't improve? Charging won't get faster and more convenient? Prices won't come down as the technology becomes more prevalent? Why would the electric car be different from every single other technology ever created? Remember when a TV the size of the one you now have cost $8000 but you only paid $700 a few years later? Technology moves very fast. The electric car is technology.

 

The only thing that's guaranteed is that things will change and technology will improve. If you think the way things are now is how they've always been and how they'll always be, you're not a particularly good student of history for an old car enthusiast.

 

Perhaps opinions will change when gas prices here in the US start to match those in the rest of the world (what, you didn't know that the oil industry is one of the most heavily subsidized industries of all?). Or will the guys who complain about electric cars [that they don't and won't own] be the same guys whining about gas prices?

[Bhigdog]

Everybody's a futurist but nobody KNOWS squat...........Bob

[leomara]

Exactly Bhigdog, necessity is the mother of invention, why are some of us making everyone crazy trying to force the future into the present even though they have no idea what the future will be?

[60FlatTop]

5 hours ago, George Smolinski said:

Just where in hell are people going to mine all the minerals needed for the EV’s?

A lot is mined by non-union workers.

[Bhigdog]

18 minutes ago, leomara said:

why are some of us making everyone crazy trying to force the future into the present even though they have no idea what the future will be?

Because with the right agenda there are fortunes to be made and power to be accumulated..............Bob

[1912Staver]

Nothing specifically against EV's in concept. But as far as I can see they remain a expensive solution to basic transport needs. A good chunk of the population needs an inexpensive to buy, inexpensive to operate , simple , basic transport. Most EV's seem to be squarely aimed at a quite affluent segment of the population. Even the cheap end of what I see on offer is hardly inexpensive.

Cheapest EV on the Canadian market at the moment is the Nissan Leaf at $37,600.00 Range 240 KM. 

Toyota Corolla is $19,500.00 and Nissan Versa is $18,300.00  { my Hyundai Accent 5 speed was right around $10,000.00 but no longer in production, ...pitty, mine is getting up there on the odometer }

Even at todays prices that sort of a price difference buys a lot of gas.

Plus to make an EV a daily driver practicality you will probably need to retrofit a home charger station, another sizable expense in many cases.

Edited March 7, 2022 by 1912Staver (see edit history)

[1937hd45]

4 hours ago, car crazy said:

It is estimated that it takes 28,000 gallons of water on the average to fight a lithium-battery powered EV, vs. 300 gallons for an internal cumbustion powered vehicle, and can take many hours, even days, for an EV powered vehicle's fire to finally go out. Now just imagine an EV in the parking garage of a large building, or in your own garage.

I'm sure the EV crowd will tell us that that inferno isn't giving off anything harmful. Your kids can toast marshmallows on the  fire.

Edited March 7, 2022 by 1937hd45 (see edit history)

[billorn]

1 hour ago, 1937hd45 said:

I'm sure the EV crowd will tell us that that inferno isn't giving off anything harmful. Your kids can toast marshmallows on the  fire.

Go stick you're face in a burning gas car and let us know how clean and fresh it smells. They only burn about 600 times as often so it shouldnt be hard to find one.

[auburnseeker]

Are we talking how often a percent burns or the actual number of them that burn?  Big difference since EV's make up such a small number of the vehicles currently being used. 

[billorn]

[MikeC5]

Do keep in mind that unless the electricity to charge them is generated via nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, etc., then it comes from burning fossil fuels.  The industry to build much of the equipment above involves use of fossil fuels.  I think EVs will drive us to non-fossil fuels sooner than otherwise (as will the Russian invasion of Ukraine) but it is going to take a long time before the majority of generated electricity has no connection to fossil fuels consumed.

[studeboy]

It amazes me how when a new technology emerges some people have to race to run it down even without any experience. I was an early adaptor of a hybrid car. I live in a northern climate. I was immediately told by people with no experience that the battery would be dead at 30 below and it would never work in cold weather.... Guess what the hybrid with its very large battery has never not started at 30 below. it actually starts better in the cold than any other car I have ever owned.

A mechanic also told me that it was a bridge and I should wait to 2010 and get a hydrogen fueled car there will be no hybrids by then. Ddid n't happen.

I have female friend who bought a Chevy Bolt last year. She just drove to Florida and back along interstates with a side trip to the Blue Ridge highway. Not a hitch along the way . Google was her friend in finding convenient charging stations. 

[60FlatTop]

2 hours ago, Bhigdog said:

there are fortunes to be made and power to be accumulated.

Electric! Dangerous and restrictive. We can sell you gas powered buses.

[Frank DuVal]

43 minutes ago, 60FlatTop said:

2 hours ago, Bhigdog said:

there are fortunes to be made and power to be accumulated.

Electric! Dangerous and restrictive. We can sell you gas powered buses.

Absolutely correct! So many electric streetcars were destroyed by the GM (and others)  proclaiming the electrics were dangerous and antiquated. Why, they only go where the tracks are! Let me sell you some go on any street gasoline or diesel buses......🤔

[46 woodie]

I can certainly understand, that in the future we will have electric vehicles and solar and wind to generate our electricity and that's a good thing. However, from all the information that I read, it will be 20, 30 or even 50 years or more, until this infrastructure will be in place.  From what I have read there are over 276 million cars in the U.S. and over a billion worldwide, all requiring gas and oil. To shut off our oil now, is a huge mistake our politicians have made. Build all the ecologically friendly stuff now and phase out oil gradually.

[billorn]

Just now, 46 woodie said:

I can certainly understand, that in the future we will have electric vehicles and solar and wind to generate our electricity and that's a good thing. However, from all the information that I read, it will be 20, 30 or even 50 years or more, until this infrastructure will be in place.  From what I have read there are over 276 million cars in the U.S. and over a billion worldwide, all requiring gas and oil. To shut off our oil now, is a huge mistake our politicians have made. Build all the ecologically friendly stuff now and phase out oil gradually.

Nobody is talking about shutting off the oil or forcing people to drive electric cars. Nobody.

[TerryB]

I’m sure the people driving electric cars today are smiling as they drive past gas pumps.  Technology advances, it’s not like you give it a certain date to start and ignore it until then.  Look at the devices that are hosting these discussions, they did not exist not that long ago.  If you remember punch cards for computers you know what I am talking about.

[George Smolinski]

4 hours ago, Matt Harwood said:

You guys are certainly world-class experts at finding reasons why electric cars won't work. Glad you weren't around when the gasoline automobile was in its infancy. You'd have been all those farmers standing around saying, "Why should I try to find this dangerous flammable 'gasoline' stuff to power an expensive and unreliable 'automobile' when I can just let my old reliable horse eat grass wherever he wants?"

 

Or do you just assume that the way it is now is the way it always has been and that change has never happened? In 1912 there was a gas station on every corner and interstate travel by automobile was effortless and fast, right?

 

The electric car is where the gasoline car was in the early 20th century. Once the infrastructure evolved to support the automobile, travel became easier. Then superhighways. Service garages. Gas stations. Rest stops. Convenience stores. You think that technology and infrastructure won't continue to develop? That electricity storage mediums won't improve? Charging won't get faster and more convenient? Prices won't come down as the technology becomes more prevalent? Why would the electric car be different from every single other technology ever created? Remember when a TV the size of the one you now have cost $8000 but you only paid $700 a few years later? Technology moves very fast. The electric car is technology.

 

The only thing that's guaranteed is that things will change and technology will improve. If you think the way things are now is how they've always been and how they'll always be, you're not a particularly good student of history for an old car enthusiast.

 

Perhaps opinions will change when gas prices here in the US start to match those in the rest of the world (what, you didn't know that the oil industry is one of the most heavily subsidized industries of all?). Or will the guys who complain about electric cars [that they don't and won't own] be the same guys whining about gas prices?

I understand your post. One glaring error or omission is the fact that the greenies want oil & gas turned off NOW. I think most will grow to accept EV’s, but replacing the internal combustion engine with battery power can’t happen overnight like they want. It’s not like a switch you can turn off.

[billorn]

3 minutes ago, George Smolinski said:

I understand your post. One glaring error or omission is the fact that the greenies want oil & gas turned off NOW. I think most will grow to accept EV’s, but replacing the internal combustion engine with battery power can’t happen overnight like they want. It’s not like a switch you can turn off.

What "greenies" said this? A lunatic fringe maybe but nobody with any power to make it happen is proposing this. They know it isnt possible no matter how bad they want it.

[John348]

I think the world's needs have changed as far vehicles, and electric vehicles their market share of NEW VEHICLES SOLD, sorry guys the used car market is not a concern of the new vehicle manufacturers. Realistically 1/3 or more of the new vehicles sold they will fit the needs of that owner. 

 

There ae a lot of things going on in the works. There is a major wind farm being built in the Atlantic 47 nautical miles off the coast of the NY and NJ. I still get trade email publications and this came the other day and I found it very interesting. Three things of interest to me anyway, is that $4.37 billion dollars of bids, the 2028 completion date, and the upgrading of the primary grid. So the upgrades to the infrastructure are going on, and it is something we as a country should be proud of. Yes, there is a lot of money to be made from this technology, but after all isn't the entire point of technological growth?  

 

https://www.ewweb.com/green-market/wind/article/21234724/new-york-bight-offshore-wind-farm-leases-generate-437billion?utm_source=EW%20G-Biz&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS220224032&o_eid=8351J7726001H1W&rdx.ident%5Bpull%5D=omeda%7C8351J7726001H1W&oly_enc_id=8351J7726001H1W

 

[auburnseeker]

I'm all for it.  China starts first and once they phase out all fossil fuel,  we'll follow.  Should probably make India phase it all out first as well.  Otherwise they will just buy our vehicles cheap that won't pass emissions test like the middle east and Mexico and run them the rest of the way into the ground. 

Being we all live on the same planet everyone has to be on board for it to work.  Otherwise the rest will laugh at our demise,  while blowing more smoke. 

 

It's going to take a long time to have the infrastructure in place in countries that are still having trouble providing clean water to their starving people.  

[auburnseeker]

2 hours ago, billorn said:

Now lets see what was the cause of those fires in the gas powered ones.  Many I have experienced that burnt were electrical and not fuel related in nature.   

My own 60 Vette went up in smoke because of a short that melted the battery and only stopped once the battery had drained itself.   That was one battery and it did 37,500 in damage,  with heavy attempts to minimize the damage by myself and the fire dept/ sheriff. 

My Father inlaw's Neighbors,  relatively late model Cherokee and a while back my Father's Oldsmobile.  Fuel related fires happen,  but I would like to know how many were the cause of the fire. 

Edited March 7, 2022 by auburnseeker (see edit history)

[billorn]

5 minutes ago, auburnseeker said:

Now lets see what was the cause of those fires in the gas powered ones.  Many I have experienced that burnt were electrical and not fuel related in nature.   

My own 60 Vette went up in smoke because of a short that melted the battery and only stopped once the battery had drained itself.   That was one battery and it did 37,500 in damage,  with heavy attempts to minimize the damage by myself and the fire dept/ sheriff. 

My Father inlaw's Neighbors,  relatively late model Cherokee and a while back my Father's Oldsmobile.  Fuel related fires happen,  but I would like to know how many were the cause of the fire. 

Now let's keep moving the goalposts.

[kuhner]

An electric would be a fine car for my wife. She drives 60 miles on her way to work. We usually take my crew cab truck if we travel by car very far.  Be great to go to the store and general running around.

In our part of Ohio they are closing coal fired power plants and are building a huge natural gas power plant 1.875 Gwatt, enough to power 1.5 million homes!  All powered from natural gas extracted from below our homes and property,  in the Marcellus shale formations.

 

Cleaner burning natural gas, less wear and tear on the infrastructure and no problems from surface coal mining.
 

 

[maok]

An investment tip, consider buying lithium explorer/mining company shares, it's the new black gold or white gold in this case.

[auburnseeker]

3 hours ago, billorn said:

Now let's keep moving the goalposts.

Why not that's all they have done for atleast the last two years.  So much,  they have wheels on the darn things now and a full time crew.  

[1912Staver]

Big question that remains front and center in my mind is " are they really any more than slightly better for the environment than a modern tech I.C. vehicle ? " Everything I have seen so far has a lot of wiggle room built in before the question is answered.

 Marketing opportunity / profit spinner , 4 thumbs up { from the people who want to sell you one }. Saving the planet ???? We will get back to you on that. Plus vague notions , " it's a zero emission vehicle " it has to be better

Edited March 7, 2022 by 1912Staver (see edit history)

[prewarnut]

At least Fisker's Karma had solar panels on the roof. For the life of me I can't understand why anyone honest about this wouldn't mandate electric cars at least attempt to reclaim some wattage through solar power. Ohh did I say "honest"?

[TerryB]

13 minutes ago, prewarnut said:

At least Fisker's Karma had solar panels on the roof. For the life of me I can't understand why anyone honest about this wouldn't mandate electric cars at least attempt to reclaim some wattage through solar power. Ohh did I say "honest"?

It takes a lot of solar panel area to do any realistic charging of an EV.  Much more than roof mounted solar panels can provide.  The roof panels would probably keep the low voltage 12v battery charged.

[George Smolinski]

5 hours ago, billorn said:

What "greenies" said this? A lunatic fringe maybe but nobody with any power to make it happen is proposing this. They know it isnt possible no matter how bad they want it.

I’d give you an answer, but we are forbidden to discuss politics on this site by the Big Kahuna. BTW, it’s a good rule I agree with, Mr. Kahuna.