future pricing of cars

[1935Packard]

5 hours ago, TTR said:

With all due respect, but being under 60 myself, I don’t quite get your reference ?

Besides, as I’ve mentioned elsewhere, I became involved with this hobby in my mid-teens, i.e. 40+ years ago.

 

As for getting or staying married, I didn’t even try until I was absolutely sure of being able to comprehend and deal with consequences such commitment involves, not to mention until I found someone with same mindset. We both have our own hobbies, friends and equally support (or tolerate ?) those of each others. Rest of our shared time we do things together we both equally enjoy. 😉

 

I believe you said that if someone needed to negotiate with their wife about buying more classic cars, maybe they should find a new hobby.  But most people I know under the age of 60 have 50/50 marriages in which they can't plunk down major $$$ on their hobby without getting the okay from their spouses.  

Edited July 24, 2021 by 1935Packard (see edit history)

[Steve_Mack_CT]

More importantly how the h*** does Ed know jack about horse statistics anyway? 😁

[58L-Y8]

Its easy: the exceptional stuff will hold or increase in value, the ordinary stuff will stagnate and fall in value.  If you can live with the ordinary, you'll have enough money to have lots of fun with ordinary old cars to the rest of your life.  When your time is up, what's the difference?

[edinmass]

17 minutes ago, 58L-Y8 said:

Its easy: the exceptional stuff will hold or increase in value, the ordinary stuff will stagnate and fall in value.  If you can live with the ordinary, you'll have enough money to have lots of fun with ordinary old cars to the rest of your life.  When your time is up, what's the difference?

 

100 percent correct. Forget the money, live your life, drive great cars. Your dead forever, and shrouds don’t have pockets.

[1937hd45]

11 hours ago, Steve_Mack_CT said:

More importantly how the h*** does Ed know jack about horse statistics anyway? 😁

 

My guess is it has something to do with general conversation in Florida, with 500,000  plus horses, it ranks third behind California & Texas. Cars and horses Winter in Florida, well maintained fleets of tractors & trailers haul both.🙂

Edited July 24, 2021 by 1937hd45 (see edit history)

[edinmass]

Actually, I dumped all cable and tv 100 percent. ( One of the best decisions I have ever made.) Don’t miss it. Gives me time to read and research topics that have actual meaning and value to me. The horse numbers was spotted on in a  paper about the civil war and transportation in the 1860’s compared to today. While the number of horses is up, the population has increased twelve times more. It’s going to be interesting to see what EV’s and autonomous vehicles do to our transportation system over the next fifteen years...........I think we are heading for changes that 99 percent of the population have no idea is coming. Nope, I’m not in favor of it.......but the door has been opened.

Edited July 24, 2021 by edinmass (see edit history)

[TTR]

2 hours ago, 1935Packard said:

 

I believe you said that if someone needed to negotiate with their wife about buying more classic cars, maybe they should find a new hobby.  But most people I know under the age of 60 have 50/50 marriages in which they can't plunk down major $$$ on their hobby without getting the okay from their spouses.  

Well, in our household, 50/60 means she’s not going to need my approval to spend her hard earned $$$’s on things she chooses to or vice a versa and we’re both OK with that.
I know either of us wouldn’t have it any other way.

Edited July 24, 2021 by TTR (see edit history)

[1935Packard]

11 minutes ago, TTR said:

Well, in our household, 50/60 means she’s not going to need my approval to spend her hard earned $$$’s on things she chooses to or vice a versa and we’re both OK with that.
I know either of us wouldn’t have it any other way.

 

Great to hear that's how your marriage works.  It's not how other successful marriages work, though, and I hope our hobby is big enough to fit all kinds.  

[Buffalowed Bill]

I would love to be able to be starting out collecting cars today. No matter what someone's budget looks like they should be able to buy into this market. It kind or reminds me of the old car market of the 50's and 60's before prices began to take off. The one major advantage today is the quality of cars coming available. Cars that were restored more than twenty years ago, were restored for a different market then we have today. Throughout the 70's, 80's and 90's a restorer was able to put an hours worth of work into a car, or a dollar, and expect a return on his efforts. In today's market that means a ready supply of really decent cars at less then what they could be restored for today.

[Pilgrim65]

Firstly this side of the pond , as in states ,  there is no money doing restoration for profit , even if you only allow 2 bucks an hour for your labour , but on plus side prices are holding and even increasing .

i have been restoring an Mga and it’s nearing completion so I have been looking to sell my stag v8 , a year ago cars similar condition now sell for 4 k more , although not planning to sell Mga , the price of properly restored has risen by 30% since I started, however still a loss money pit , maybe prices will double in a few years , yea I know pigs will fly first.😆

The trouble is I love cars , not golfer or keen on globetrotting so although I know my hobby costs me , it gives me purpose , occupies my time ,and it’s the one I enjoy 

Edited July 24, 2021 by Pilgrim65
Omission (see edit history)

[edinmass]

8 hours ago, 1935Packard said:

 

I believe you said that if someone needed to negotiate with their wife about buying more classic cars, maybe they should find a new hobby.  But most people I know under the age of 60 have 50/50 marriages in which they can't plunk down major $$$ on their hobby without getting the okay from their spouses.  

Being married is like owning pre war cars.......it isn’t easy, it’s lots of work, and it can get frustrating. I have been with mine for 25 years........but I never got title.(Never married! Although I refer to her as my wife.) since we live life like the nuclear family, she is a home keeper and I’m the breadwinner. Part of that framework is I get my toys without consultation..............works for me. With the insane things I bring home, and the quantity of them, It wouldn’t be fair if I had to ask or negotiate about them.........95 percent of the time is spontaneous. Currently I own two cars she hasn’t seen, or even know about. Usually they just turn up in the yard.........and occasionally I get the “is that a new one?” question. As long as her daily driver is 100 percent, cars just don’t concern her. 

Edited July 24, 2021 by edinmass (see edit history)

[alsancle]

9 hours ago, 1935Packard said:

 

I believe you said that if someone needed to negotiate with their wife about buying more classic cars, maybe they should find a new hobby.  But most people I know under the age of 60 have 50/50 marriages in which they can't plunk down major $$$ on their hobby without getting the okay from their spouses.  

 

Orin,  I mentioned this in another thread.   You need to swap things in and out enough that they lose track of what you actually have.  

[TAKerry]

Ed, I think were around the same age, I am working on 36 years marriage and SHE has the title. My wifes the boss and she knows it. Last car I brought home the neighbor told her about it!

[SC38dls]

I may have the oddest marriage arrangement of all but it’s worked for 51 years. She has all say about decorating the house and I get all say about what’s in the garage. It’s worked but her side has been much more expensive than mine but mine has been a lot more fun! At least from my point of view. Now to figure out how I can fine the $$ to equal what she’s spent. 
Have fun

dave s 

Edited July 24, 2021 by SC38DLS (see edit history)

[1912Staver]

I keep hearing about this big drop in vintage car prices, but apart from about the lowest 10% from a desirability point of view I sure am not seeing it.

 My experience is much like Pilgrim , anything even at all interesting has moved up in price steadily over the last 5 years and quite sharply over the most recent year.

 Very few non street rod, pre war cars on the open market around here . And most { by far } in the lower 1/3 of the desirability scale. Prices in this category may be as low as $10,000.00 , but you sure are not getting much value for money. Just very gray porridge. 

I keep a reasonably close  eye on what is available locally. Its been a long time since anything I could actually buy perked up my interest.

[Ben Bruce aka First Born]

11 hours ago, 1935Packard said:

 

Great to hear that's how your marriage works.  It's not how other successful marriages work, though, and I hope our hobby is big enough to fit all kinds.  

 

 I believe you should insert " some"  between the  "how other"  in your statement. My bride never had to work.  I "took care" of her.  We do discuss large purchases, kinda using each other as a sounding board.  If the funds are there, final decision is left up to the individual.  But then, like I perceive TTR, we are not talking about $100,000+ cars. 

   Has worked well for 45+ years.

 

  Ben

[John_S_in_Penna]

I'd like to see the topic get back on course

to discussing pricing trends of various eras of cars.

There should be some interesting insights, and

CURRENT pricing trends haven't been discussed

much yet.

 

For example, I've heard that wood wagons are

down substantially from their peak---

[TTR]

2 hours ago, John_S_in_Penna said:

I'd like to see the topic get back on course

to discussing pricing trends of various eras of cars.

There should be some interesting insights, and

CURRENT pricing trends haven't been discussed

much yet.

 

For example, I've heard that wood wagons are

down substantially from their peak---

While I agree with this topic having gotten off track (which apparently is more than common on discussion forums, regardless of topic) and myself having (partially) contributed to such, I’m not sure beating the proverbial dead horses of “current pricing trends”, let alone future values of old cars, is going to reveal anything new or noteworthy, but then again, that is just my “opinion”. 

[edinmass]

John.......yes, the woodies are down, by as much as fifty percent from the stratospheric highs they achieved. When you look at it, most of them are middle of the road chassis or common car chassis. The frenzy  just couldn’t hold. The town and country’s are also in the toilet. I haven’t seen anybody giving them away. But the people who over invested either in Restoration, or checkbook purchases are going to take a haircut. That’s why you buy things because you like them,  not because you’re convinced they’re going to continue to go up at an exponential rate. The late V-8 Ford market has also taken a pounding. I was lucky enough to to help out some friends with on a few weeks ago. I didn’t ask the number the car traded hands for..........but it was a fun car to drive. Too tiny for my taste, but with a two speed rear it was comfortable driving in thr Florida summer at 95 degrees outside and sunny. 
 

 

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by edinmass (see edit history)

[Paul Dobbin]

After 50 year actively in this hobby, I never made money on a car that I did full restoration on.   Had a bunch that I did some sork on an flipped.   The restoration projects I bought because I wanted them and had a ball restoring them and driving them.  Therfore the loss of $.$$ was acceptable and worth the fun.

33 year ago when I bought our first motor home, a friend told me,   "Kiss that money goodbye because it will never br worth that much ever again and you mahave to give it away when it;s old"   He was right.   The first one, I did a lot of work on improvements and sold it for exactly what I paid for it 15 years earlier   (Lucky Me)  The second one, I'll be lucky to get back 15% after 18 years.   For that reasson I'm holding onto it.   I'd rather have it than the 15%.   Like antique cars I bought what I really wanted and no hobby is free long term.

(However I had 100+ cars and only 2 motorhimes)

[Bryan G]

My father, almost to his dying day, dreamt of making the big money on an old car. It never happened. In the end he always ended up taking a bath. The difference between me and him is, I never really expected to make a dime, and I've not been disappointed. I look at every vehicle I've owned as a life chapter, a learning experience more valuable than a college course. The last car I sold? I paid buy-here/pay-here Kia money for that Packard, had it 2 years, sold it at a loss. Oh, but the stuff I learned, and I can still close my eyes and feel myself lifting that right foot and that car dropping into overdrive as that smooth, quiet 288 loafed along...

 

My most recent project? I started keeping a spreadsheet of expenses but don't think I'll update it; should just delete the file. Because it doesn't matter. The experience has been so fulfilling. It's just another old 40s sedan, a "driver", but the work I've done with my two hands, the research and what it taught me, have changed me, improved me, as has every car or truck that came before. I don't know what the next project will be, or when, but expect it will be bought as cheap as I can manage and when I go to sell? I'll hope for the best, and if I'm upside down that deficit will be marked in an account I label "entertainment/self-improvement".

 

Oh, and a close relative as a 190SL that has gone from weekend cruiser to barn-find in the time I've known him. I have hinted at him to sell, and sell NOW.

[nick8086]

Inflation will help keep the prices up. I just hope we do not get the China effect in our hobby.

 

FYI : China effect is no one wants to buy it..

 

Just like the 3 sets of China  I got from my estate..

 

 

 

Edited July 25, 2021 by nick8086 (see edit history)

[keithb7]

I like a certain type of car. I can think of a couple of options.

 

1) Buy a car that looks like it just came off the farm and rebuild it. Spend $40-50k easily factoring in body and paint. There is no limit here. They sky is the limit on what you can spend.

2) Happen onto a car for sale that I like that has been restored and looks amazing.  I cannot restore said car for asking price. Purchase price is nowhere near total cost to restore said car.

 

What did I do? I bought the car that looks like it just came off the farm. I am fixing it up slowly. Body work and paint may or may not be in the budget.  Then the car I really want to end up with, found me.

I bought it too. I am driving it often and enjoying it immensely.  I am wrenching on it a fair bit too. The "off-the-farm" beater keeps me challenged as well. It will continue to for years to come. 

 

Future sell prices? I gave up caring. I am living my life doing what I love. It brings me great satisfaction. I do practice the car hobby within a budget. My heirs can sweat about the future value sell price.

 

 

 

[JV Puleo]

On 7/23/2021 at 11:18 PM, edinmass said:

Actually, I dumped all cable and tv 100 percent. ( One of the best decisions I have ever made.) Don’t miss it. Gives me time to read and research topics that have actual meaning and value to me.

 

Me too. For exactly the same reasons at least 15 years ago. Now, on the very rare occasions when I'm in the same room as a TV, I marvel at how puerile it is. Right now I'm re-reading a book on the Spanish Armada...last night it was Prince Eugene of Savoy...all of which is 100 times more interesting than anything that has been on TV in the last 20 years.

[Pilgrim65]

1 hour ago, JV Puleo said:

 

Me too. For exactly the same reasons at least 15 years ago. Now, on the very rare occasions when I'm in the same room as a TV, I marvel at how puerile it is. Right now I'm re-reading a book on the Spanish Armada...last night it was Prince Eugene of Savoy...all of which is 100 times more interesting than anything that has been on TV in the last 20 years.

One thing you may find interesting are a bbc documentaries series by Lucy Worsley , ( histories biggest fibs )she tells the truth about historical events including the Spanish Armada , very interesting and thought  provoking , worth a watch 

Edited July 25, 2021 by Pilgrim65
Spelling (see edit history)

[35cz8]

I hate the thought of any of my cars being turned into street rods or modernized.  That said, I see a decline in the interest of most of the younger generation in an original car.  Also, some people are no longer interested in buying one because they are afraid the fossil fuels are going to be eliminated thus making it unable to even use one. An old car could be modernized with electric motors and still used and have that old look.   I am no longer in the best of health nor am I young enough to really be concerned about the future so I have considered starting to sell the cars I have except for one that my wife and I can enjoy for the rest of our time.  One can only hope that there will be enough interest in the old cars that at least some will survive to represent automotive history.

[Pilgrim65]

1 hour ago, 35cz8 said:

I hate the thought of any of my cars being turned into street rods or modernized.  That said, I see a decline in the interest of most of the younger generation in an original car.  Also, some people are no longer interested in buying one because they are afraid the fossil fuels are going to be eliminated thus making it unable to even use one. An old car could be modernized with electric motors and still used and have that old look.   I am no longer in the best of health nor am I young enough to really be concerned about the future so I have considered starting to sell the cars I have except for one that my wife and I can enjoy for the rest of our time.  One can only hope that there will be enough interest in the old cars that at least some will survive to represent automotive history.

Solemn thoughts , but sadly my mindset is heading in that direction 

[prewarnut]

I don't want to get political, just factual...but the EV craze right now could doom a lot of antique and other vehicles to static displays - eventually. That would cut prices substantially (this would be through a drop in refined gasoline demand and political legislation/taxation/non-renewal of registration..). What woke me up this week was a) The EU proclaiming no new vehicles to be sold in the EU with internal combustion after 2035 (I believe was the date), and b) Daimler stating it would go all-electric by 2035. Now we could just say this is an errant decision by some certain governments and their requisite big-businesses who see this as a plus to charge cars off a nuclear-powered grid (which we don't have). But, in the race to be competitive a lot of the manufacturers can follow (we already have VW, Audi, Honda, Toyota, BMW, GM, Ford, soon to be Ferrari, and others making EVs). What I find interesting though (which noone talks about) is the limitation right now is a limit on rare-earth metals, and the amount of pollution/expense it takes to mine for battery production. Ramping that up big time will cause a different sort of catastrophe so stay tuned...

[alsancle]

1 hour ago, prewarnut said:

I don't want to get political, just factual...but the EV craze right now could doom a lot of antique and other vehicles to static displays - eventually. That would cut prices substantially (this would be through a drop in refined gasoline demand and political legislation/taxation/non-renewal of registration..). What woke me up this week was a) The EU proclaiming no new vehicles to be sold in the EU with internal combustion after 2035 (I believe was the date), and b) Daimler stating it would go all-electric by 2035. Now we could just say this is an errant decision by some certain governments and their requisite big-businesses who see this as a plus to charge cars off a nuclear-powered grid (which we don't have). But, in the race to be competitive a lot of the manufacturers can follow (we already have VW, Audi, Honda, Toyota, BMW, GM, Ford, soon to be Ferrari, and others making EVs). What I find interesting though (which noone talks about) is the limitation right now is a limit on rare-earth metals, and the amount of pollution/expense it takes to mine for battery production. Ramping that up big time will cause a different sort of catastrophe so stay tuned...

 

 

The corner service station became the corner gas station which will probably become the corner charging station.   So, always being 5 minutes from a gas station (depending on where you live) will become a thing of the past.   Some things are inevitable.

 

But while we are alive you will still be able to buy gas.   It may be in 20 years that tour directors hire a tanker truck but there will be gas for a long time, just not as easily available, or cheap.

[Steve_Mack_CT]

Interesting and concerning thoughts, Prewar.  Glad to report that a Model A will run on kerosene.  Not sure about other makes of the same vintage.  😁

[60FlatTop]

15 hours ago, edinmass said:

driving in the Florida summer at 95 degrees outside and sunny. 
 

 

Try a woody in western New York on an 80 degree day at 90% RH. You might not be able to get out the door when you arrive at your destination.

 

Like many things, the dream far exceeds the reality.

[SC38dls]

I’ve had Austin Healys, MG’s, Jags, Datsun Z’s, Nissan Z’s, old Ford pickups and the current Studebaker as our fun/2nd car. Never had the money for a true “collector” car but I’ll bet I had more fun with the money I spent on these cars than I could possibly have with one collector type car. Total output may have been close and I’m sure total return would come out far less. That’s ok because it’s what we did enjoying all of them and the pure joy the first time we took any of them out for a ride that matters in a hobby we enjoy. That’s the return you can’t put a price on. 
Have fun. 
dave s 

[edinmass]

35 minutes ago, 60FlatTop said:

 

Try a woody in western New York on an 80 degree day at 90% RH. You might not be able to get out the door when you arrive at your destination.

 

Like many things, the dream far exceeds the reality.

 

Two weeks ago I had the 17 out in a huge rainstorm........the people at the restaurant looked at me funny as the top was down. I said it’s not the first time in 105 years it got wet.............and it’s only got to make another 25-35 to keep me happy.

[60FlatTop]

Since my early teens I have always had at least twp old cars of the semi-collector variety. I don't remember the first time I hear "Why don't you sell all those old junks and buy a good new car". I have heard it a lot. And from people not qualified to give the advice. Honestly, I looked at the newer car as a commitment I did not want to make. When I did buy a couple of new vehicles I left them parked outside while my latest $2,000 sat safe and secure in the garage. My closest friends have similar histories.

Some people say there are 6 basic personality types the old car hobby is a confluence of all 6, a common grounding. That won't change and the cars and various personalities will always gravitate to the hobby.

The view of future pricing will remain constant if one stays in the 25-75% range of costs. Look at the average purchase cost across the hobby over the past 80 years. Sure there are exceptions, but using an inflation calculator for the time of purchase you will see a lot of $10,000 cars, whether they were purchase by a father in the 1950's or today's 75 year old in the 1970's. My $2,000 '64 Riviera in 1978 figures about $8500 today but I had to pay taxes and SS to get the $2,000 in my hand. Pretty close to the same for that used car lot Duesenberg in 1950.

 

That average price will stay with us. I do see a drop in prices as we lose the money from Baby Boomer's retirement savings. In about a 20 year window we saw the ability to skim up to $30,000 from the Personal Investment Program many early retirees had access to. That was old money. In a country where people are making a priority of demanding a $15 per hour minimum wage you will see that average shift downward, but certainly not die.

 

In fact, if you want to see the direction of the hobby in the next 10-15 years just take a look at car hobby activity in what the US used to call Third World Countries. It's the future of the US and the hobby.

 

 

[1937hd45]

How is that electrical grid deal going to work after they ban fuel oil heat in your home and garage?

[1912Staver]

Observations of a tail end of the boomers , 45 years of interest in the hobby. Anything that used to be interesting and affordable say 25- 35 years ago, is now much more money than it used to be and no longer even remotely within reach. And in almost every case any local examples have either undergone total restorations { and would now require a sizable mortgage on the house to buy } or have been exported. 

Any example of a particular make and model that was at one time on your watch list that is still within your budget is in todays market a lost cause , basket case. And probably at that 2500 ++ miles away.

 Anything that you wouldn't look twice at 25 years ago for $1000 - $1500 is now $10,000 - $15,000 and you still wouldn't look twice at it. But at least it is still in your geographic region. { not worth the cost of shipping to 99.9 % of the out of region potential buyers }

 If prices shrink a bunch over the next 5 - 10  years perhaps things might get back to an affordability level that I enjoyed when I was a much younger person. But I doubt it.

I have a few project cars that I bought a long time ago as starter examples I had hoped to learn from and eventually upgrade and use as potential parts cars for the better examples that I was never able to  buy.  Perhaps over the next decade I will be able to return a couple of my already owned cars to driver status. About the only way forward that I can see. 

 

Edited July 25, 2021 by 1912Staver (see edit history)

[8E45E]

On 7/24/2021 at 10:33 PM, keithb7 said:

Future sell prices? I gave up caring. I am living my life doing what I love. It brings me great satisfaction. I do practice the car hobby within a budget. My heirs can sweat about the future value sell price.

I never cared, either, especially when I hear parents complain how much is costs to raise their children.

 

Thankfully, I never married and had kids!  I have heard some horror stories just how much parents spend on their kids to keep them out of trouble, and to get them out of trouble if they set foot in it, which is far more than what one spends on a vintage car.  Football and hockey equipment, which usually gets upgraded yearly as the child grows is NOT cheap, and for those who have had the misfortune of losing a child to the drug world, reformation is extremely costly.

 

Craig

[wws944]

On 7/23/2021 at 7:40 AM, TAKerry said:

I have always been fascinated with MB.  I even had a poster of a gull wing on my wall when I was a kid. I kept looking at the 190's and thinking to myself that one day they will be as valuable as a 300. Not realizing that the 190 is only about 1/16th the 300 is. I found mine (1957 model) the guy wanted $7500 and had 3 for sale. I made a trade even up with my 'bird. At the time I thought, this is my retirement, LOL.  Car was really nice and had both tops. I did some clean up and put on a new soft top myself ( which cost something stupid like $500). Like most car guy stories, my 2 kids were young, I had no time to work on the car, money got tight so it was the first thing to go.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          The 190SL is another good example of values though. As soon as the first one hit 6 figures then they all came out of the woodwork. They were selling for close to $200k at their peak. I do believe that most have come back to earth and I have seen quite a few for less than $100k now. I think people realized these were not $200k cars. 

 

Back in the mid-1970s, between my dad and myself we had three 190SLs.  Being busy with college in a distant state, I ended up selling my '61 to a guy who "really really" wanted it and would treasure it forever.  Then the SOB flipped it to a classic car dealer about a month later.  Dad sold his '60 in the late '80s to a collector somewhere in Michigan.  (Dad regretted selling too, and a couple years later he bought the Reatta Convertible that I still own today.)  The third was a very rusty '59 parts car that we stripped and disposed of.

 

The 190SL was neither "Super" nor "Light".  Maybe SLow was a better description.  It was a pretty looking car though, and convertibles are always a treat.  But no way in my mind would I ever pay six figures for one in todays market.  Just so many other cars I'd rather own for much less money.

[Ed Luddy]

Always liked the looks of the 190. Only did drive one once, so never got the real feel of it. I had a 65 230 SL and was thinking of making a trade deal on the 190SL. My friend had a very nice looking 1959 at the time, so I was short term smitten. I ended up selling the 230 to a friend who still has it over 30 years later.

[Ed Luddy]

After a strong late winter/ early spring run up of prices in 2021 old car prices are still high, but sales have stalled so the dip has started. Don't know if it's short or long term. Crystal ball is too cloudy and scratched up to get a true read. Besides I probably could not spot it with my old eyes and poor perception.

 This is in central Canada. Lot's of nice iron still sitting, not selling. I hope it's just a price correction to get rid of the high marked up "flipped" cars!