Maybe The 25 Year Rule Will Take Care Of Itself!?!?

[fordee9r (Ron Springstead)]

Like many of you, I am not crazy about AACA's idea of anything 25 years old or older being an "Antique Automobile" but I can live with it. The other day, in my repair shop, I had an incident that started me thinking. We had a customer's car that was 12 years old and needed a part that was not available through our local jobbers and, if it could be found through special order, the price would be over $250. The price of that part probably was more than the whole car is worth! <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/frown.gif" alt="" />

Being a nice guy and trying to help keep this poor guy's heep on the road, I began calling junkyards hoping to find a good used part at a reasonable price. We have a list of about 20 junkyards in our area that I began calling in search of the needed part. By the time I reached the end of the list, I had received 2 relies.... "Nope, don't have one" or "Sorry, anything that old has gone to the crusher". <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/frown.gif" alt="" />

The story ends with the poor sap not being able to afford to fix his car and, on Friday, a truck arrived to haul it off to the crusher. If this is the fate of a car 12 years old, what does the future hold for 25 year old cars? Maybe Detroit (& other countries?) have truly produced the disposable car and 25 years from now there will be nothing left to restore. <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/crazy.gif" alt="" />

[Ron Green]

Depending on what make of vehicle it is parts are still available for the older iron. I have 6 vehicles with a 86 Dodge van as my daily beater. I keep the van in good shape including the paint and parts are still available though most dealers, NAPA, etc. In 7 or 8 years this will be able to go on a show field and will probably still be on the road as it has been a excellent truck, not that I am planning on showing it however as I stated in a previous thread I think a 35 to 40 age rule would be better. Only my opinion for what its worth.

[ex98thdrill]

......And being from New York, a car with a frame always outlasted the salt over a car with a subframe. I firmly believe that the "Big 3" doesn't want to build a car that lasts that long because if they do, you won't be coming back to buy another one from them soon enough to their liking. Look at some of the excellent engines that the big 3 have quit making to replace them with stuff that isn't usually as good. With the age of computers and such, I would predict that the cars that will survive for AACA will probably be the mustangs, camaros, firebirds and maybe your big luxury cars. I think I'll be very surprised if a GEO Metro ever steals the show.

[Guest imported_Dwight V.]

I'm an insurance adjuster and send a lot of cars to their last reward. Here's the trend as I see it broken down into segments, but it all conspires to equal the same thing.

1. The example of the Dodge van isn't a good one. Trucks are very easy to get parts for, as they make the same basic design for many years, they make fleets of them for both private and commercial use and they hold up well. People fix up old trucks to keep them working, so even a junkyard that only likes modern stuff will keep older trucks because there is demand for the parts.

2. Most cars these days will go 150,000 to 200,000 miles, so saying they aren't as well built isn't really true. Some do have problems (like Mopar minivan transmissions), but the bulk see very high mileage. Because of this, when they do wind up in the junkyard they are well and truly worn out, so there isn't much demand for the drivetrains and the cars are too old to have body damage repaired by the insurance company. Straight to the crusher they go since there is no profit potential for the yard to have it take up the space.

3. American car styling was incredibly bland during the 80s and into the 90s. Very few cars were notable enough for people to have any interest in them. As performers they did not do well either. So you've got ugly, slow, emissions laden cars with little interest or resale value, and poor future investment potential. No one cares if a Citation, Cutlass Ciera or Tempo goes to the crusher. I mean, do any of us?

4. Salvage yards need to do big business to survive these days. Gone are the mom and pop yards that we all know and loved where you could pack a lunch and make a day of it. Just try getting in the fence of any modern yard. Thank the trial lawyers for this one.

5. People can't fix cars anymore. The complexity (or the perceived complexity) keeps the average guy from tinkering with this stuff. If he wants to tinker, he buys an older, simple car. The DIY market is shrinking, and the DIYers are the ones who buy parts for cars older than 10 years. No buyers = car ready for crusher, see above, wasted space. Far more profitable to provide parts for insurance repairs where the yard can make some real bucks.

So yes, the 25 year rule may indeed be self policing.

[Dynaflash8]

But there are soooo many of these cars to start with. Think about this: One of the things that got me interested in old cars as a child was a small junkyard behind the local Chrysler-Plymouth dealership, which was owned by a friend of my fathers (I wrote a big article in the AA magazine about the dealership back in the 90s).

Anyway, when I was barely in elementary school my Dad would go up to see his friend on a Saturday to hang around and talk to the "boys". I'd go with him, and while he was talking (close your eyes modern mothers and social services workers, my Dad has passed on) I would wander around in the little junkyard out back. I can still remember the ground being black and bare with grease and oil out there (put your hands over your face EPA) and laying around were 1935, 1936, 1937, and 1938 vintage Chyslers and Plymouths. This was in about 1944-51 I would say, but there's still a whole bunch of those cars in collectors hands today. One thing though, I think plastic cracks and disintegrates faster than metal rusts, don't you think so? <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/tongue.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/blush.gif" alt="" />

[Dynaflash8]

Mr. Green perhaps times have changed, but I'll tell you what, my '39 Buick was 35 years old before AACA went to the 25 year rule in 1975 (passed in '74) and by that time I was fairly livid, so I do know what it feels like to have your favorite kind of car banished to the parking lot and called a "used car of which the best could be said it is as utilitarion as a bathtub", to liberally quote a letter to the editor of AA in 1966.

I think the fact that the cars you mention are not considered by many of today's hobbyiests to be collectable will only hasten their demise and make the remaining examples of interest simply because they survived. Also, young adults who may have grown up with one in their family (as I did a 39 Buick) or had one for their first car (as I did a 39 Buick) may be turned away from the club and/or hobby by having to wait until the cars are 35-40 years old, as I did. I was a sticker, a lot of people I knew in those days with 41 Buicks and '39 Chevies were leavers, and a lot of those cars did not survive to be what we call antique cars today because of that.

Nevertheless I see your point, because there are so many more of everything today. That probaby has to equal more survivors, when after all, there were only 377,000 41 Buicks built and that was the top production year before WWII.

I think we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

For the insurance man, my next door neighbor is a tinkerer. He has found the Cadillacs through 1992 to be so easy to keep on the road. He has a mint 1978 Coupe deVille, a mint 1989 sedan deVille with at least 250K miles and now just bought a slightly edgy 1992 sedan deVille with 175K already on it, that he will make mint like he does them all. So, we're not to the end of the line yet, although it may be approaching. There's one mint 1976 Buick 225 4k-dr hardtop in this town, one owner, 130K, and I'm trying to get it so I can attend things 100-200 miles from here easier. I have a 76 Lincoln Town Coupe in Virginia that I use for the same purpose there. The traffic here in Central Florida makes it life threatening to take the 35 Buick out on US 27. The 39s can do it, but it's just so hard on them having to keep up, and/or otherwise dodging tractor trailer trucks and this time of the year, beat up old tractor trailer orange and grapefruit trucks.

[R W Burgess]

There goes Dynaflash picking on those truckers again. As far as the future AACA cars, I'm going to have to agree with Ex98thdrill. I can see the sporty Camaro's and such being on the show field, but all those commuter sedans sure turn me off even though the young people buy the dickens out of them. I think they use the gas mileage excuse for buying those nondescript lookalikes. Personally I lost interest in new cars in the late 80's. Nothing moves me anymore except maybe the Corvette which isn't a practical family car. Me being a Chevy guy, I can still remember the sporty car line that Chevy had in the 60's. You could buy a nice rumbling V8 powered car in just about every car Chevy made in those days. These midpriced 4 and 6 cylinder powered sedans of today don't do a thing for me. Sorry GM, as long as you keep selling those crate motors, I'll forever be repowering my Caprice. I like my power coming from the rear, thank you very much. Wayne

[1937hd45]

I think Ron has the right idea about the late model stuff. Back in 1961 Dad bought a new Ford Galaxie, and the 1931 Ford. I think it was in the early 1970's that I saw the 1961 under another hulk on their way to the crusher. The 1931 is out in the garage waiting for warm weather. How many 1961 Fords will we see at AACA events this year compaired to 1931 Model A's?

[ex98thdrill]

Yeah Wayne, I'm not a fan of hanging onto a Chevy Citation (which will be AACA eligible in 2005), but I do believe that if someone does decide to restore a newer car, they won't be worried about gas mileage and will probably restore a car that they wanted way back when, that they couldn't afford then. When I was a kid, my parents bought a '77 Pontiac Catalina brand new, and even then I was pointing at the new Trans-Am with t-tops in the showroom (Smokey & the Bandit era remember?). If I had a choice to restore one of those two cars, and despite reliving my youth with owning a Catalina, it wouldn't be the Catalina, but at the time, my parents couldn't afford the T/A and it wasn't practical. I still think as time passes you'll see more of the Monte Carlo SS, IROC Z-28, Mustang GT, Thunderbird, Firebird Formula, Corvette, Grand National, Cutlass, Grand Prix, etc with fewer of the Tempo, Taurus, Escort, Omni, Aries, Caravan, Celebrety, Cavalier, Sunbird, etc. I know I have the same feelings as Wayne, some people like Bach, Mozart, Beethoven, etc. but my symphony is an all american rear wheel drive car, with a V-8 and a set of dual exhausts sitting there purring <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> .....but I still like the prewar iron too.

[Guest]

One car that I have tucked away in the garage awaiting it's turn is a 1984 Dodge Daytona Turbo Z. Most of the Z's came "loaded" with all options, and this package came with a two-tone paint scheme, and most of them you see today are two-tone(whats left of them that is, their mostly in pieces in the salvage yard now, not on the road). This particular Turbo Z was special ordered with only leather and air as the optioned accessories, and all black outside/all black inside color scheme(thank GOD it doesn't have the black and white checkerboard cloth interior). 1984 was not the best year for this car, it was new to the market, and not put together well enough to withstand the years of abuse they have came to endure, this being the chief factor in thier low survival rate to date. There were only 9,422 of these turbo Z's produced in '84, compared to 100,899 Z-28's. The Daytona Turbo Z was mostly a go-fast novelty for that year, remember the Z-28 was only producing 165 HP at the time and it was rather large and heavy, so this little 142 HP, 160 ft lb of torque turbo car would haul major patutti at 0-60 in a little over 8 seconds. Believe me, this one I have is suprisingly quick. My mother bought the car off the original owner back in the 80's and it only had about 22k on it at that time. It has only seen another 30k or so miles since then, she drove it very little and always kept it garaged, heck it still smells new inside. I purchased it off of her after she became disabled and wasn't able to drive anymore. I can't wait for it's turn on the show field. You just don't see many of the old Daytonas on the road anymore. Here is a link to go see one that is almost identical to the one I have: 1984 Daytona Turbo Z

[Dynaflash8]

My wife has a 1997 Mercury Cougar XR-7 special 30th Anniversay car. It has the double overhead cam V-8, is rear wheel drive and has a special leather interior, sun roof, all of that stuff. I guess it's sort of a modern-day Firebird or something like that. I'm too old to ever see this car collectable probably, but I do think it will be, if it survives. I'd like to sell it to a young person who could pamper it a bit and put it away. It's already up to 68,000. It was rare to start with, what about in 2022 when it's 25 years old and Judy and I are in our mid 80s? If a younger person got this car now, and a couple of parts cars they could have an interesting collectable. I was just chatting with a man who has a black over mint green '52 Plymouth Belvedere. I could never have guessed in 1958 how rare that car would be today. He bought it new, drove it 30K miles, put it in a shed when he went to college and forgot it was there. When his uncle died in 1998, his aunt called him and said, "come get the car." It was in bad shape from the poor storage, but he's restored it now. There are only SEVEN '52 Belvederes in the Plymouth Club today. So the moral of the story is, what we see today as Detroit iron, may be really collectable in 25 years.

[Guest BruceW]

I'm sure this debate will go on long after all of us are dead and ancient dust.

I can see in 2040 some young "mobility collector" will curse a 2021 Plenium Vortex Special as just an old "used car"... while at the same time he will marvel at the antique 1980 Chevy Citation sitting in the museum because....

...it actually used liquid fuel to operate the engine.....

...and you had to manually drive it with hands and feet.

.... and gee..what are these obsolete cylindrical things with a rubbery composition that hold the car down to the ground?

The young man shakes his head as he wonders "Gee....How antique can you get?????"

<img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

[R W Burgess]

58rebelsport! The enthusiasm you have for the future is coming through loud and clear. Make sure you stock up on the necessary service parts to keep her going in the future. We just sent our daughter back to University of Arkansas with the '88 Chrysler Conquest a few months ago. In trying to get the AC going again, we found a hole in the receiver/dryer. Can't find one anywhere. We had to get the daughter going on short notice so we told her she'd have to rough it. Can't believe you can't get parts for an '88 car. Of course I can cut it up some and make one of my Peterbilt dryers work, but somewhere down the show field road the car will lose points for it's owner at the time. By the way, the car only has 46,000 miles on it. Wayne

[Dynaflash8]

Wayne:

See. you're missing Johnny already, and he almost isn't even gone. Remember what he told me, "I can fix anything!". And know what, I think he's probably telling the truth. what do you think?

[R W Burgess]

Dynaflash! Check mail, can't answer on DF. Wayne

[Dave@Moon]

In 1987 I was driving a five year old '82 Fairmont for my state car. It was a 4 cylinder, non-a/c car with an AM radio. The only other options it had were thick side mouldings, a vinyl roof, and the top-line vinyl interior, shiny plastic wood grain EVERYWHERE!!! Looked <span style="font-style: italic">wonderful</span> with the dog-dish hubcaps! <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/tongue.gif" alt="" />

This thing blew out it's exhaust pipe leading to the exhaust gas recirculation valve, which in this car was a solid pipe that was fitted at both ends. In the entire Ford Motor Company there wasn't a single example of this piece available. The Parts Division had to commission a new batch of these things before the dealer could repair it. That was going to take at least six weeks. There were no concurrent aftermarket replacements available.

As a result of driving the car w/o the pipe (open exhaust) for 1500 miles over the next month (mostly in the Pocono mountains but also including one <span style="font-style: italic">really</span> fun and deafening trip to Boston), the car burnt through two pistons and destroyed itself. It was a period where I <span style="font-style: italic">really</span> felt like I was the flagship of environmental professionalism!

I had to valet park this thing at it's worst at one of the finest hotels in Boston (the Omni). The car hop handed me the keys at the curb and walked away before I could tip him, about as fast as he could walk! <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/blush.gif" alt="" />

The point being, cars reached a level of complexity and parts specialization some time ago where trying to even keep up with "modern" vehicles is difficult. Someone trying to preserve that Fairmont as an antique today (it's only got 4 years to go) wouln't even begin to be able to find some of the parts for that car. I seriously doubt that there is a driving example of that car in existance today (except for preserved, undriven examples--if any).

I think we've reached a stage where most types of cars entering the 25 year stage will almost have to be trailer queens to remain "authentic". Picture a trailer queen Oldsmobile Omega for a second, won't you.

Frankly, while they're probably the least loved cars of our day, the 80's cars may well wind up being among the rarest cars in the hobby before long.

[ex98thdrill]

'97 Cougar? I missed that one all together. I know back in '87 they did the 20th anniversary Cougar which was a real nice car as well. Even those new Thunderbirds are a nice looking car. As for the Daytona, those were a nice looking car, but if I remember right, those Mopar turbo 4's were known for blowing head gaskets. The one thing that I vividly remember about a caravan that my wife once had that my father and I had to do an engine change on. What I hated about that van to this day was the difference in parts. In the years ahead, these car owners will not only have to deal with the vacuum lines, smog pumps and computers, but think of the headache they're going to have using the mixed parts. A lot of this stuff now is put together using half metric / half standard bolts. What a pain in the neck it is grabbing a standard socket to take something off, finding out it doesn't fit, and then going either up a size or down a size, having the socket STILL not fit, and then realizing that it is time to break out the metric socket set. When we did that engine change on that caravan it was a pain in the butt trying to figure out if the bolts were metric or standard. After the aggravation I've had on the mustang that I'm working on now, you can give me the old iron any day of the week.

[R W Burgess]

That's funny, Ex98th! When this metric changeover started GM used a light blue paint to denote metric fasteners. Wonder when they gave up on that? Of course you know why. They don't wanting the do-it-yourselfer working on them anyway. <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/mad.gif" alt="" /> Wayne

[ex98thdrill]

No they don't. They just want you spending your money on their new stuff. It's gotten to the point where it'll cost you more money in labor to keep junk running than it will to be driving new stuff. That caravan that my wife had, cost us more money each month just to keep that piece of junk running than what it cost us for a payment on a brand new car (escort wagon) and at least with the new car you didn't have to wonder if it was going to quit on you. If anyone has tried to do anything major on a newer car, it's aggravating to put it mildly.

[56clipper]

This thread goes along with the continuing idea of what will people be willing to spend the time money and effort to restore in the future. The biggest problem, as was nicely stated in the 2040 example earlier is that it is very difficult to predict the future of this issue because we are living the present. In the present, the late 70's, and 1980's stuff is junk, so few of us can see them becoming collectible in the future because we wouldn't collect them now. But in many ways the old formula does still hold true. Myself, for example, being 26 years old, have fond recollections of many of these junky cars we're talking about now. Not that it was the greatest car ever made, but I really did like my grandfather's 78 Cadillac Coupe de'ville (d'Elegance package). Those four inch thick velour seats were great! His 81 Fleetwood holds a special place becuase it was the first Cadillac I drove and I took it to my prom and other high school functions. It did pain me to sell it last year, but I had no place to store it. Plus ya gotta love the V-8-6-4! <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

The bottom line is that at some point someone will find some of these cars interesting and worth restoring and keeping. Many of us will shake our heads, but someone else shook their heads at some of the currently hot collector cars when they were just 20 year old junk.

However, through all of this, I refuse to ever believe that a 1973 Ford Maverick is now or ever will be a desirable collector car! <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smirk.gif" alt="" />

[Dave@Moon]

Robert,

The appreciation of cars from the era of your youth is <span style="font-style: italic">extremely</span> different from that which I observed when I was 26 (I'm 44 now).

The earliest book in my library titled "Cars of the Sixties" was published in <span style="font-style: italic">1979!</span> At that time there were whole magazine series being published that were dedicated to the muscle cars and sports cars of an era not yet 10 years old (<span style="font-style: italic">Car Exchange</span>, et al). By 1985 there were hundreds of books already published on cars of that era, Bookman Publishing alone had dozens of titles documenting these cars in their authentic state. <span style="font-style: italic">Special Interest Autos</span> published an article and a cover photo of the Studebaker Avanti when it was all of 8 years old!

Is there as yet even <span style="font-style: italic">one</span> book on the market dedicated to 80's cars? If so, I've never seen it and I do a lot of book shopping.

Those cars, of course, will someday be appreciated more than they are now (even the Maverick <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> , '82 Escorts on the other hand.... ). But I seriousy doubt that they'll <span style="font-style: italic">ever</span> be appreciated as much or as rapidly as their predecessors. <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/frown.gif" alt="" />

[Guest]

However, through all of this, I refuse to ever believe that a 1973 Ford Maverick is now or ever will be a desirable collector car!

Being a father of a 19 year old that was home from college for the Holidays - I got to see quite a car show in my driveway every evening with his friends coming over to shoot pool (I hope thats all!) Well guess what landed one evening ... a 73 Maverick, freshly painted, tricked out with a new Hurst 4 speed, fancy white face performance gauges new mags and new interior. It was a sweet ride for a kid! Somebody was willing to spend the time and money.

[Guest imported_Dwight V.]

There is an early 70s Maverick close to where I work stored under a tarp most of the time that has historic vehicle tags on it. Remember those white/blue ones with the red pinstripes? There ya go. This guy has owned it since new, I think. He's had it repainted TWICE in the original 3 colors. I think he's nuts too, but that's his thing.

I once totalled a guy's '82 Escort GT. I found out from the repair shop this was the second time it had been totalled. Sure enough, the guy kept it and clipped a rear half of another Escort to it. Who knows why? Guaranteed he'll have it at Hershey in another ten years.

There's something for everyone out there, or as someone once told me, "There's an ass for every seat." Who is to know what someone may collect in the future. I'm not a big fan of Gremlins, but the friend who shows his at Hershey gets inumerable comments from people "I had one of those!" or "I always wanted one, but my Dad wouldn't let me buy it." I've found some of the nicest people showing some of the 'dumbest' cars.

Hey, nobody liked Edsels when they were new either. <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/tongue.gif" alt="" />

[Dave@Moon]

There was a guy in my old neighborhood who had seven Yugos! You never know.

[Guest John W. Harvey]

He had to have 7 Yugos.........maybe one would start and run for the day!

John <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

[fordee9r (Ron Springstead)]

When I started this thread, my intention was not to raise the question if there was anything desirable to restore from, say, 1980 on but if anything from that period COULD be restored! With cars spending less time in salvage yards before meeting the crusher, used parts will become non-existant for most makes and models. I'm sure that some specialists will hoard the desirables (Corvettes & others) for used parts but they will have to deal with increasing scrutiny from the EPA and government regulators. Here in NY, yards must have the means to recycle freon before the car can be disposed of.

As mentioned earlier, "Joe Sixpack" has already shied away from tinkering on these later model beauties. If Joe can't work on them now, how will he be able to restore one that's 25 years old? Also mentioned earlier is that these guys, and future tinkerers, have to be exposed to vehicles from earlier years. To me, this is the key to survival for the AACA and the old car hobby in general. You won't attract many new members just because you allow vehicles from their childhood under your umbrella. They couldn't work on them then and won't want to in the future, especially if parts are almost non-existant.

Take heart, fellow "Old Pharts", the future of this hobby is not doomed. The next time someone younger that you is looking over your car be sure to point out how simple it is and how it can be maintained with only a basic kit of hand tools. Also point out that factory repair manuals are readily available without going to the dealership and looking through their CD ROM's. You just may be the one to light a fire in a future old car nut!

[Guest]

Having been on the road for the past 2 weeks, there was naturally a lot of stuff here on the forum to catch up on. This is the only long thread to hold my interest from beginning to end.

Good discussion and thanks Ron for starting it. <img src="http://www.aaca.org/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

hvs

[Guest]

I think the modern day Model T will be the generic late 70's to almost 1990 GM cars. (Can't tell a Chevy from a Buick generics).

Common as dirt today. So many parts interchange and interfit==in such a long time frame with so many marques.

Won't happen any time soon. But I bet 20 years from now those "generic" GM's will be restored and cherished with all kinds of OEM and aftermarket parts. Will be the Model T and Model A of the future. Not bad looking cars either. And definitely distinct from the excess styling of the mid 70's and the "soapbar" look of today's cars.

I hope so anyway. I own one of those generic GM products.== a 1983 Buick Regal, which still looks common as dirt on the road today.

But give it some time.

I will probably be 80 years old then, but will get that "Neato, WOW what year is that car?" from some 20 something babe at a stoplight, sometime in the distant future when I will possibly be too old to enjoy it properly.

"Antique and beauty is in the eye of the beholder"