Plug - in hybrids are the car industries Wolf in Sheep's Clothing Has anyone heard anything about this headline I saw ?

[TerryB]

I’d rather deal with lithium than nuclear waste, nuclear waste is forever.  

[TerryB]

I live in Lancaster county PA, just down the road so to speak fromTMI.  TMI was in the newspapers a lot and continues to be because the remaining working reactor has been shut down by its owners.  The reason was price, TMI produced electricity was too expensive compared to other competing suppliers and they could not find buyers for the energy they produced.  The owners asked for but did not receive state backed subsidies that would have made their electricity price competitive.  This brings in another consideration for nuclear power generation, can it be done in a price competitive way without subsidies?   Natural gas seems to be the current low price energy source but with that comes fracking and the issues associated with that method of extraction.
 

 

Edited September 20, 2020 by TerryB (see edit history)

[Peter Gariepy]

21 hours ago, ply33 said:

Despite Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi I have never been too worried about nuclear power plants operating safely...

 

I chucked when I read that.

 

I'm all for cheap, safe, pollution free power.

•    Nuclear has proven NOT to be cheap. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source
•    Nuclear has proven over and over again to NOT be safe or pollution free.  Countless trillions of dollars in cleanup, sites left to pollute the landscape for countless generations, and waste material that has yet to find a safe, permanent home. (after 60 years)

I'm sure nuclear remains an option to power companies when they put into consideration the benefits of new designs and technology that address the high cost of to make them a viable business opportunity. But we are still left with the cost of where to put the waste material.

 

In the very near future (3-10 years) alternative fuel vehicles (mostly electric cars) will dominate new car sales.  Look at the long-term statements of GM, Ford, and most European and Japanese car manufacturers. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020#prospects-for-electrification-in-transport-in-the-coming-decade

 

Power for electric vehicles must come from somewhere, Hopefully cheap, safe and pollution free as possible. The cost of Wind and Solar are equal to Coal, and cheaper than Gas, CNG, Nuclear and other sources. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source   If you were an electric company what would YOU invest in?  It's a rhetorical question.  The answer is already known. It's Wind and Solar.

 

The average life span of a gas-powered vehicle is less than 10 years. https://www.goldeagle.com/tips-tools/long-cars-last-long-will-car-last/
Therefor it’s fair to assume that gas powered built in the next 10 years, with a 10-year life span, will be virtually gone from the roads in 20 years.

 

[Peter Gariepy]

 

[ply33]

1 hour ago, Peter Gariepy said:

I chucked when I read that.

 

I guess I should have phrased it more like “I haven’t been as worried about operating a nuclear plant safely as with the disposal of the waste.”

 

There is an article today that says battery development is happening at a pace that will make EVs price competitive with fossil fuel based vehicles in 3 to 5 years. That is price competitive without tax or other incentives. That reinforces your “(3-10 years) alternative fuel vehicles (mostly electric cars) will dominate new car sales” prediction.

 

Though I take exception to your statement that gasoline powered cars “will be virtually gone from the roads in 20 years” as the way the average life works is about the same as half-life for radioactive materials: If the average car lasts 10 years (i.e. half-life of 10 years) then about 25% of cars last 20 years, 12% to 13% last 30 years, etc. Even if all sales of gasoline stopped in one year, it would take a couple of decades for the number to be reduced to the point they were a rarity on the highways.

 

And sales won't stop in a single year, after EVs (or other alternative propulsion systems) become price competitive it will take years before sales of gasoline cars to go to zero. There is a significant number of people who trust older technology enough to avoid something they think of as new and unproven. For example hybrid cars have been on the US market for 20 years now but there are many who consider that still new and unproven. And there seems to be some “car people” for whom its not a car if it lacks noise and vibration.

 

But the number, both percentage of fleet and absolute numbers, of gasoline powered vehicles will start to decline and the follow on is that the distribution system for retail gasoline for vehicle sales will start declining. My guess is that may happen in 15 to 20 years. And gasoline for road use may become hard to find in 20 or 30 years. Won't affect me too much as I don’t expect to be driving much by then assuming I am still alive.

[Pfeil]

On 9/18/2020 at 8:07 PM, Fossil said:

   I would agree and to put things even more in perspective I've read the one average size volcanic eruption negates everything man has done for the last 10 years to clean up the environment.

   I wonder how much of a carbon footprint the production of a wind turbine is. We know that they aren't made from fairy dust not to mention hauling them all over the country to set them up. I'm also pretty sure that all the electrical cable and towers aren't found under toadstools.

   It's the same way with ethanol. The supporters don't even want to tell you how many BTU's it takes to turn a bushel of corn into ethanol or how many gallons of fuel was burned raising that corn and hauling it to the plant. Not to mention the reduction in gas mileage and the damage it does to older equipment.

  And if you really want to get fried do a little investigation into how many billions of tax payers dollars go into keeping just these two endeavors functioning. Sorry for the rant but I get sick of programs like these based on misinformation being shoved down the tax payers throats. 

 

The CO2 levels today are around 400 PPM, the CO2 levels during the Cretaceous period ( 66million to 145 million years ago) were at 1,000 PPM's CO2. At that time there were no polar ice caps and there was a inland sea in the Midwest. Mean surface Temps were average 11 degrees Celsius higher. More importantly the earths axis does a swing between 21.1 deg. and 24.5 every 41,000 years. So my question is where did all this CO2 come from in the Cretaceous period?

 

So if the volcanoes didn't cause the high CO2 levels what did?

 

[oldcarfudd]

The hobby may last long after gas cars have dwindled away.  The Horseless Carriage club runs many well-attended tours every year (OK, not THIS year) for cars built before 1916.  I can categorically state that NONE of the people who drive on these tours remember the cars when they were new.  In the last couple of days I've put 90 miles on a 1911 Stanley Steamer.  It burns hexane in the pilot light, which I have shipped to my home in six-packs of one-gallon cans at hazardous rates.  Its main fuel is kerosene, which is available at a pump in many gas stations in Pennsylvania, but nowhere in northern NJ where I live.  I put 5-gallon cans in my modern car and drive to a friendly airport, where I fill the cans with Jet A.   It's a pain in the tush.  But, masochist that I am, I do it.

 

Every November, often in vile English weather and in normal traffic, the Brits stage the London-to-Brighton for cars built before 1905.  In a typical year they have over 400 entrants.

 

Lots of obsolete technologies have hobbyist adherents.  Wooden boats.  Tube radios.  Black powder muzzle-loaders.  Crocheting.  We'll do just fine.

[Pfeil]

3 minutes ago, oldcarfudd said:

The hobby may last long after gas cars have dwindled away.  The Horseless Carriage club runs many well-attended tours every year (OK, not THIS year) for cars built before 1916.  I can categorically state that NONE of the people who drive on these tours remember the cars when they were new.  In the last couple of days I've put 90 miles on a 1911 Stanley Steamer.  It burns hexane in the pilot light, which I have shipped to my home in six-packs of one-gallon cans at hazardous rates.  Its main fuel is kerosene, which is available at a pump in many gas stations in Pennsylvania, but nowhere in northern NJ where I live.  I put 5-gallon cans in my modern car and drive to a friendly airport, where I fill the cans with Jet A.   It's a pain in the tush.  But, masochist that I am, I do it.

 

Every November, often in vile English weather and in normal traffic, the Brits stage the London-to-Brighton for cars built before 1905.  In a typical year they have over 400 entrants.

 

Lots of obsolete technologies have hobbyist adherents.  Wooden boats.  Tube radios.  Black powder muzzle-loaders.  Crocheting.  We'll do just fine.

Two things. One, we are using for the majority of cars everyday gasoline and when that huge demand goes away the price gas will skyrocket. Two, If you listen to some of these crazy lawmakers I wouldn't be surprised if they attempted to ban old cars from the roads.

[padgett]

a) Have you priced a 1L6 lately ?

b) My eldest is now 50 and DDs are 8 and 9. Must be ready for pasture ?

[AzBob]

On 9/20/2020 at 3:45 PM, Peter Gariepy said:

The answer is already known. It's Wind and Solar.

The downside of wind and solar is is the sun doesn’t shine all the time and the wind doesn’t blow all the time. There will still be a need for conventional power generation sources. Until there is adequate capacity and storage capabilities for renewables, thermal and hydroelectric sources will be around for awhile.

 

Another thing I find troublesome about wind and solar is the once pristine lands that are now cluttered with these eyesores. A prime example is the wind farm recently constructed in a remote valley next to Great Basin National Park in Nevada. 

 

One more thing comes to mind. What will the effects of these large wind and solar farms have on the climate? In the rush to implement these technologies, there may be unintended consequences with regards to weather patterns.

 

Keeping this car related, I think it would be great to have an electric commuter car I could recharge from home using photovoltaic cells. 

 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2020 by AzBob (see edit history)

[Frank DuVal]

2 hours ago, padgett said:

a) Have you priced a 1L6 lately ?

 

I'm sorry, you seem to have strayed from the Antique Radios Forum.....😄  But to answer the question, $60.  My Trans-Oceanics have Locktals.....😉

 

I live a little over 30 miles from our North Anna Nuclear Power Plant. No worries here. And fairly cheap electricity compared to the rest of the nation. Dominion has cut waaay back on coal burning power plants. 

 

Solar has one benefit, that it is produced closer to the user, so less line loss.

 

Put in solar panels, buy electric car, drive for free. Except you do have to buy the car and the panels.....🤣 TNSTAAFL.

[nick8086]

Therefor it’s fair to assume that gas powered built in the next 10 years, with a 10-year life span, will be virtually gone from the roads in 20 years.

 

My 66 year old car..

 

Batteries:

 

With corporate globalization, trade increased along the U.S.-Mexico border and so did pollution. However, trade agreements like NAFTA fail to hold polluting corporations responsible or to provide resources for environmental protection.

Of the 66 documented toxic waste sites in Mexican border states, the most infamous is Tijuana's Metales y Derivados, a U.S.-owned maquiladora factory that recycled batteries imported from the U.S. The owner, José Kahn, fled across the border when the maquiladora was shut down in 1994 after community reports of health problems and repeated violations of environmental law documented by the Mexican government. Mr. Kahn left behind 23,000 tons of mixed contaminated waste, including 7,000 tons of lead slag, exposed to the elements and threatening workers and families living in the adjacent Tijuana neighborhood of Colonia Chilpancingo.

 

https://www.kcet.org/shows/socal-connected/the-price-of-clean-up

 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2020 by nick8086 (see edit history)

[dustycrusty]

12 hours ago, Pfeil said:

 

The CO2 levels today are around 400 PPM, the CO2 levels during the Cretaceous period ( 66million to 145 million years ago) were at 1,000 PPM's CO2. At that time there were no polar ice caps and there was a inland sea in the Midwest. Mean surface Temps were average 11 degrees Celsius higher. More importantly the earths axis does a swing between 21.1 deg. and 24.5 every 41,000 years. So my question is where did all this CO2 come from in the Cretaceous period?

 

So if the volcanoes didn't cause the high CO2 levels what did?

 

 It is a bit difficult to reach a consensus on the exact driver of K/CO2  Maximum 66 million years into the future, but the main culprit seems to be the subduction of carbon rich sediments along the tectonic plate boundaries. Based on the abundance of igneous intrusions in the Geological Record, the earth appears to have been far more geologically active in the past and all that sloshing around of the paleocontinents theoretically released a lot of sequestered CO2- and yes, a lot of it wiggles its way to the surface via volcanic rifts. The attendant high planetary temperatures (atmospheric and oceanic) also encouraged an explosion in  plants  which initially absorb CO2, but then release it when they die. As the forests and oceans filled up with the debris of a few million generations of dead plants and trees, compacted and often burned into ash or covered with sediments, the outgassing of these decaying plants and animals would eventually exceed the capacity of their living decedents to capture and convert all of the CO2 around them and it too will gather in the atmosphere.

 

And then there are the dinosaur farts.......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/17981393#:~:text=Giant dinosaurs could have warmed,the massive dinosaurs called sauropods.

 

[JACK M]

2 hours ago, dustycrusty said:

And then there are the dinosaur farts.......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/17981393#:~:text=Giant dinosaurs could have warmed,the massive dinosaurs called sauropods.

 

 

What a wonderful and worth while thing those Brit scientists are doing.

 

 

[padgett]

I seem to recall some attempts to harness bovine emissions (methane ?)

[John348]

10 minutes ago, padgett said:

I seem to recall some attempts to harness bovine emissions (methane ?)

 There is a ski lift in New Hampshire or Vermont,(it's been awhile) that they use bovine emissions to run

[JACK M]

I have always wondered why it wouldn't be possible to use the rise and fall of the tides to run generators.

No pollution and its perpetual.

Even more rise and fall the farther you get from the equator.

[Buffalowed Bill]

For those that think that renewable energy is not real, you need to get out more. I guess if I lived on the East Coast and had never traveled in the West I might think the same thing, but I don't. For eighty years, first with hydroelectric, and now wind and solar, the West has been hugely serviced by renewable energy. Yes there have been coal burning, electric generating plants, but they are on the way out. Wind and solar technology is a sustainable part of the landscape, while coal generation is in it's death throes.  

 

It's going to take time for world wide renewable energy, to be sorted out, but with electricity on track to become the dominant energy source, it behoves everyone wake up to reality. Europe in on a schedule to go all electric. Generation by oil and natural gas will continue to diminish over time. How well we choose to respond to the future, will ultimately determine what our children's lives look like.   Ask your kids and grandkids what they think the world will look like when they are your age. 

 

I have to guess that the choice in Europe is, or will be, not between petroleum and hybrid. It will be what place hybrid propulsion has in a world of all electric.  

[Pfeil]

2 hours ago, padgett said:

I seem to recall some attempts to harness bovine emissions (methane ?)

 

It's true, I met a guy at a car show a few years back who was a dairy farmer in the central valley of Ca. The farm went back three generations. The Ca. Gov. wanted him to recover all the methane created by the cows. He was selling the farm.  

[Pfeil]

2 hours ago, JACK M said:

I have always wondered why it wouldn't be possible to use the rise and fall of the tides to run generators.

No pollution and its perpetual.

Even more rise and fall the farther you get from the equator.

 

As long as it doesn't get in the way of Seals, Killer Whales, Penguins, Porpoise, Pelicans, Swimmers, Body Surfers, Belly Boarders, Knee riders, Board Surfers, Sea Turtles, and anything else in the marine environment. 

Edited September 21, 2020 by Pfeil (see edit history)

[Peter Gariepy]

I'm always amused and amazed how a post can dramatically stray from the original subject. (I'm as guilty as of the rest of you apparently)

What was a post about the overstatement of benefits of automobile hybrids (by Greenpeace no less) and morphed into a discussion of Volcanos and bovine emissions.  The later is ironically pretty appropriate i guess.

[TerryB]

When I think of hybrids it reminds me that when hybrids first came on the market, the goal was to increase fuel economy and reduce fuel cost.  Later the plug in hybrids were introduced to add some green benefits to the use of battery power and to create a new sales feature.  In my perspective, a plug in hybrid needs to get at least 50 miles of travel to be reasonably effective, the 25 mile rage ones just don't make practical sense.  The plug in hybrids might be more of a stepping stone for technology in the development of full electric vehicles.  I did see a plug in hybrid as the best choice for my wife’s short commute to work each day, she didn’t agree and now she has a Subaru to drive 1.2 miles to work.  I tried🤷‍♂️.

[padgett]

I have a friend who is buying up 48v lithium power packs and making some very fast golf carts. Popular in senior centers.

[Bhigdog]

7 hours ago, Buffalowed Bill said:

Wind and solar technology is a sustainable part of the landscape

 

Errr...Aaaah.........Now about those rolling black outs and KWH rates at back breaking levels..............Bob

[trimacar]

Hadn’t thought about the actual cost to recharge an electric car.  
 

Virginia averages about 12 cents per kilowatt hour.  California is almost 20 cents per kWh (wow!)

 

Thus a 75 kWh battery would cost about $8 and $15 respectively.  The kWh/100 miles would determine cost per mile.

 

 

 

[Peter Gariepy]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/business/electric-cars-batteries-tesla-elon-musk.html

[capngrog]

20 minutes ago, Peter Gariepy said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/business/electric-cars-batteries-tesla-elon-musk.html

 

Warning!  Paywall link.

 

Cheers,

Grog

[Peter Gariepy]

13 minutes ago, capngrog said:

 

Warning!  Paywall link.

 

Cheers,

Grog

 Opps sorry. 

[rocketraider]

22 hours ago, Frank DuVal said:

Solar has one benefit, that it is produced closer to the user, so less line loss.

Not exactly, Frank. If you have PV panels on your own property and tied into your home's breaker box, that is the case and any excess generation not used in your home goes out on the grid, and it could end up being used hundreds of miles away. Depending how much you use vs how much excess you make, you could actually get paid by your electric provider.

 

In Southern Virginia a lot of land that was formerly tobacco farms had been lying idle, but the landowners were still paying taxes as if it were still working land. Solar farm companies found that most of these counties had no land use restrictions addressing solar farms and all of a sudden they were popping up everywhere- and always just under the size threshold where tax exemptions ran out. Thankfully that's been rectified and the counties are getting a little compensation for using the land.

 

As an example of where the solar-generated power could end up, one large solar farm in the works in Pittsylvania County has already contracted its entire output to the Amazon facility in Northern Virginia- nearly 250 miles away. And I'd be willing to bet most of the folks up there couldn't find Pittsylvania County on a map.🙄

[rocketraider]

11 hours ago, JACK M said:

I have always wondered why it wouldn't be possible to use the rise and fall of the tides to run generators.

No pollution and its perpetual.

Even more rise and fall the farther you get from the equator.

Wave farms have been tested for several years now.

 

Problem with a lot of this alternative generation is regulating it at North American 60Hz frequency. Good lord at the rectifier, voltage and frequency regulation and other associated peripheral equipment needed to make it usable.

[Frank DuVal]

1 hour ago, rocketraider said:

Not exactly, Frank. If you have PV panels on your own property and tied into your home's breaker box, that is the case and any excess generation not used in your home goes out on the grid, and it could end up being used hundreds of miles away. Depending how much you use vs how much excess you make, you could actually get paid by your electric provider.

 

I know the power is "sold" to users far away, but the simple fact of electricity is the electrons do not know where they are sold, they just flow to a load! So, power made by me (too many trees here for panels)  in excess of my needs goes on the wires leaving my house, and is available for use by my neighbor, transformed up to 34.5 KV and sent to the next distribution transformer, for use by the next customer. This is what I mean by less line loss. Sure, the big wigs say they sold all the solar power from Pittsylvania (and yes, I DO know where that is!) solar farm to Northern, Va, but the electrons will never make it, unless they make more than enough to supply every customer along the way!😉

 

And yes, this distrubuted model of solar production is Dominion's future operating strategy. This will reduce the need for increasing generating capacity at a few points and upgrading the grid to move large power from places like Mount Storm, WVA to Northern Virginia (Loudoun County internet servers).

[ply33]

2 hours ago, trimacar said:

Hadn’t thought about the actual cost to recharge an electric car.  
 

Virginia averages about 12 cents per kilowatt hour.  California is almost 20 cents per kWh (wow!)

 

Thus a 75 kWh battery would cost about $8 and $15 respectively.  The kWh/100 miles would determine cost per mile.
 

9 cents per kilowatt hour during the “super off peak” rates that start at midnight. That is if you have the residential time of use rates for EV and plug in hybrid cars. This is in California in the San Diego Gas & Electric service area, one of the more expensive service areas in the state.

 

My plug in hybrid will start charging itself in an hour from now while I am fast asleep and be full up for tomorrow by the time I wake up.

[ply33]

2 hours ago, capngrog said:

 

Warning!  Paywall link.

 

Cheers,

Grog

I guess my ad and tracker blocker must block the paywall too. I have no problem accessing that article.

[Bhigdog]

Pretty interesting op ed piece on heavy metal generation in today's WSJ....................Bob

[padgett]

Saw somewhere that the "best case" is about 4 miles per KWH.

[Buffalowed Bill]

On 9/21/2020 at 7:35 PM, Bhigdog said:

 

Errr...Aaaah.........Now about those rolling black outs and KWH rates at back breaking levels..............Bob

For those old enough to remember sitting in line.

 

 

 

 

 

View all

 

 

During two separate oil crises in the 1970s, Americans from coast to coast faced persistent gas shortages as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, flexed its muscles and disrupted oil supplies. In 1973 and again in 1979, drivers frequently faced around-the-block lines when they tried to fill up.Nov 10, 2012

 

Gas Lines Evoke Memories Of Oil Crises In The 1970s - 

[Bhigdog]

Yup. Supply and demand.

 

Ever more demand chasing a finite supply of "green" electricity ='s sky high KW charges and rationing. Your "smart" car will know what date and time of the day it is and will only accept a charge based on your need and your social credit score.

A small overage will be permitted but will be deducted from your "smart" home's assigned ration.

A thriving black market for boot leg power will arise and the penalties for power gouging will be severe.

The oil industry will all but collapse extracting only enough oil to provide feed stock for plastics, lubricants, etc. The sales of the gasoline by product will be strictly regulated by the DEA (Dept of Energy Administration) and priced and taxed accordingly.

Unauthorized sales or usage of gasoline will be referred to the other DEA.

Despite all of these efforts the Earths climate will continue to creep upwards but all official acknowledgement of that will be squelched.

Those who question the draconian Green New Deal as ineffective will be branded as "cooling deniers" and banned from social media.

The UN's Minister of Adaptive Development (MAD), Greta Thunberg, will monitor energy usage and from time to time will be heard to shriek "How Dare You" to the world at large.

Welcome to the brave new world of Command and Control.............Bob

 

[George Cole]

As Rod Sterling would say, "Imagine a population, if you will, so confused that they think the Earth's atmospheric temperature can be changed by giving more money to the government."

[Pfeil]

5 hours ago, Buffalowed Bill said:

For those old enough to remember sitting in line.

 

 

 

 

 

View all

 

 

During two separate oil crises in the 1970s, Americans from coast to coast faced persistent gas shortages as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, flexed its muscles and disrupted oil supplies. In 1973 and again in 1979, drivers frequently faced around-the-block lines when they tried to fill up.Nov 10, 2012

 

Gas Lines Evoke Memories Of Oil Crises In The 1970s - 

 

As long as we keep using fossil fuel to keep the demand up it will be a long time before we will have those shortages.

In the last three years the U.S. has been the worlds largest oil producer and refiner. As long as we stay the course and keep those policies in place we will be OK.

[padgett]

100 years ago Boss Kettering and Tom Midgley were working on ways to increase mpg because they were worried about running out of petroleum.  La meme chose.