Daytona Turkey Run - AKA Turkey Rod Run

[George Cole]

Looks like the Daytona Turkey Run is still on for Thanksgiving weekend, November 26-29.  They're accepting registrations for the swap meet, car corral, and car show fields.  Not a whole lot of prewar cars, but there's always a few.  Nice sized swap meet, but again, not a lot of prewar stuff there either.  I almost always find a few things that I can't live without.

[padgett]

I enjoy going is only 60 miles but unless there is a vaccine next month, I probably won't.

[Paul Dobbin]

We went 30 years in a row. but not restoring or building anything any more, so we're staying home.

They had a good car corral and a awesome 5000 car show, but not buying or selling right now.  When

I was shopping, buying or selling we always went and enjoyed it and put a car in the show for the best parking.  Black Friday the ladies went shopping across the street at the MALL.  Everybody was happy/

[real61ss]

I sure hope it doesn't get canceled, we have our rooms. Kinda concerns me that I heard yesterday that Daytona Beach has refused to issue a permit for Bike Week this year.

[capngrog]

I haven't heard about Bike Week or Biketoberfest, but the Turkey Rod Run is on as of Thursday, September 10, 2020.  I only know this because I work the event, and we've been told that the event is on.

 

My guess is that both Biketoberfest and Bike Week will happen.

 

So far, there have been mixed analyses of the effect on the pandemic of the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and the NSRA Nationals.  As far as I've been able to determine, there has been no significant spike in China Flu cases due to either of these two events.  Yes, I've read the IZA Institute report on the so-called super spreader Sturgis event.  The IZA report has not been peer reviewed and has been questioned by several prominent individuals.  At this point, who really knows how to respond to the covid/China Flu, but one thing is for sure: we must re-start our economy or perish.

 

Cheers,

Grog

[George Cole]

I read a recent news article that Daytona Beach has refused to issue a permit for Biketoberfest.  However, a good part of the event activities are now outside the city limits at Bruce Rossmeyer''s Destination Daytona, which is not under the jurisdiction of the city.  I suspect a lot of bikers will show up at there and then migrate into the city bars/restaurants, etc., anyways.  The big thing missing will be the bike events at the Daytona International Speedway.  Bike Week follows Speed Week in February.  That's too far out to make a call on whether they will issue a permit for it or not.

[TAKerry]

I would love to go to the Turkey run at least once. Hershey and Carlisle are my go to's. I would even enjoy riding my bike down for the weekend but probably not this year. Glad they are having it and hope everyone is respectful and safe.

[ted sweet]

florida is on th nys travel ban list

[John348]

FYI

Newsweek article

 

https://www.newsweek.com/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-linked-more-260000-coronavirus-cases-economists-estimate-1530331

[padgett]

Same hype numbers ( IZA Institute of Labor Economics) that seem to have been debunked. Also hope that by the end of November things will be different.

[John348]

38 minutes ago, padgett said:

Same hype numbers ( IZA Institute of Labor Economics) that seem to have been debunked. Also hope that by the end of November things will be different.

 

Where did you find that statistic to be debunked? I found that statistic in several credible printed news sources.  Seem to have been debunked is not debunked, including the word seem makes your reply seem that you are uncertain of the information you are presenting. 

Edited September 15, 2020 by John348 (see edit history)

[padgett]

Maybe Forbes ?

[capngrog]

 

Here's a link to the actual report of the study backed by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics:

 

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

 

None of the IZA authors are "epidemiologists" (they are all economists, but some of them specialize in "Health Economics") although their study appears to be epidemiological in nature.  The principal overall weakness of the study/report is the lack of peer review.  An exhaustive peer review adds enormously to the the credibility of any academic study.

 

Just as an aside, the IZA Institute, seems to be widely accepted as an authority on economics and is considered to be the number one top economic institution in Germany and is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.  This, of course, is not necessarily an indictment of the institution, but its background and sources of support are a bit muddy.  Maybe I just didn't dig enough.

 

The IZA report is rather long and full of some suspect data, but I suggest that you at least read the abstract.  In the abstract, we learn that the study relied heavily of a statistical method called "a synthetic control approach".  My understanding of the synthetic control approach (SCA) is extremely limited, but I found an MIT paper on the method (https://economics.mit.edu/files/17847 ) which had this comment in its Conclusions Section: 

 

"However, like for any other statistical procedure (and especially for those aimed at estimating causal effects), the credibility of the results depends crucially on the level of diligence exerted in the application of the method and on whether contextual and data requirements are met in the empirical application at hand." 

 

  What this means to me is that the data can be easily fiddled either wittingly or unwittingly.

 

I hafta admit that my understanding of the methodology employed in the data gathering phase of this study is very limited.  I was amazed to find that the study relied heavily on data mined from " ... anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc."  I've never heard of SafeGraph, Inc., so I looked and found this: SafeGraph | POI Data, Business Listings, & Foot-Traffic Data

 

 

It's amazing how all smart phone owners/users can be tracked so precisely, but I think that we've all suspected this for quite some time.  The data used in this report are claimed to be "anonymized" (is that even a word?); however, using the tracking data from SafeGraph, it seems that identification of individuals would be relatively easy to make.

 

The abstract of the report reveals that there was only a 0.6% increase in Covid (China Flu) cases in the county where Sturgis is located (Meade County) and approximately 0.3 -0.4% in South Dakota as a whole.  While I'm no epidemiologist,  that hardly seems to be a pandemic spike to me.  However, the study touts this as an increase of 35% relative to the 9.7 cases per 1,000 population in South Dakota on July 31, 2020 (o.97%).  The study further determined (using a difference-in-differences model) that in counties (in the rest of the USA) that contributed the highest "inflows" of attendees of the Sturgis Rally that the China Flu cases rose by 10.7 percent, relative to counties without any "detected" attendees at the Rally.      

 

The authors of the study report admitted, within the report, that their conclusions on the Covid-related costs of the Sturgis Rally were doubtful.  I quote this from the report:

 

"We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated substantial public health costs, which we calculate to reach at least $12.2 billion usingthe statistical value of a COVID-19 case estimated by Kniesner and Sullivan (2020). While we note that this ballpark  (note that the term "ballpark" was inserted sometime between my first review of the report, on September ninth and today) estimate captures the full costs of infections due to the Sturgis rally — and is an overestimate of the externality cost because this number includes COVID-19 infections to individuals who attended the rally (and may have internalized private health risks) — we nonetheless conclude that local and nationwide contagion from this event was substantial."

 

DISCLAIMER, DISCLAIMER

  I'M NO EXPERT ON THIS STUFF, BUT I CAN READ A TECHNICAL PAPER

 

My take on the report is that is that it is useful, but full of equivocation.  Be that as it may, the Corona/China Flu response has become one of Risk Management.  Surely, If we all stayed home, the spread of the virus would be severely restricted, but our economy would crash, suicide rates would skyrocket,  we would starve to death etc.  We MUST balance the re-opening of out economy with some common sense precautions.  I think that the Sturgis Rally and the NSRA Street Rod Nationals were a test, and that, to date, there has been no conclusive evidence of significant spikes in the Corona/China flu rates.

 

Cheers,

Grog

 

 

 

[deaddds]

Geez Grog, don’t confuse me with factual papers filled with guesstimate conclusions! 🤪