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   Opinion piece. The only example that I know of that is even close to how this “novel” caronavirus operates is the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. Before all of our lifetimes. Before easy air and car travel. During that pandemic, many thousands of folks died during the “first wave” of that flu. Like now. But MORE people died during the second and successive waves of that virus that followed the first wave. In the UK, twice as many folks died in the second wave of the Spanish flu. So, based on that example, with China returning to normal after its first wave, let’s see if the COVOD19 stays buried or comes back there for a second wave. 
   Getting back to the topic of this forum, the China comeback will tell us a lot about our antique car futures. If no second wave risk shows up, our hobbling probably will be back in step by this summer. But if we see that second waves occur, this will be an 18-24 month disaster. Selling our cars or getting way to old to safely drive them. 
   My humble opinion 

   Now I’m going to my shop to work alone on my 1918 restoration another day 

   Ron Hausmann P.E.

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Can't compare to the Spanish flue.  Totally different flue in a totally different time with no real medicine or understanding of how it's transmitted.   It's like comparing a Stanley Steamer to a Tesla.  Beyond, it has  wheels,  everything is different. 

The Media is again the one that keeps mentioning the Spanish flue comparison. 

Unless they tested everyone at once,  they will never know the true cases and how mild this really is to the general population.  We have a much older population than we have ever had with more underlieing problems.  There weren't many cancer survivors or Diabetes patients or a whole slew of disorders we have discovered ways to extend the inflicted persons time here as in the past with other flues from say even 20 much less 50 years ago.  

How many cases required hospitalization? That's more important than the death rate. I keep hearing 80 percent of those experience no or mild symptoms. So must be less than 20 need hospitalization,  I'm guessing it's much less than even that.  

I'm worried about the dangerous precedents being set by this in the name of humanity without the full thought of the repercussions their Fix is having on everything.  

I work from home and other than dropping off stuff at the post office don't need to go out and don't usually much anyways.  I'm speaking for others that have to and are living on the edge, pay check to pay check. A wrecked economy and a leaky faucet of infections so we cant get back to normal is not going to be a good end product.  If no one can go anywhere why not let people manufacturing and building go to work?  They work with the same people every day.  Not much chance of infection if it's the same people working together and not going anywhere after work to be exposed.  This is governing by fear and feeling not common sense. 

 

Death rate from Suicide  and murder is going to spike as tensions boil. (probably much higher than that of the virus) I keep hear people joking about the birth rate,  but I see the domestic abuse rate skyrocketing as families that don't get along get jailed up together.  Tensions grow and bad things happen.  I know it's trying for my wife to suddenly become the teacher of 3 kids.  Teachers atleast get to leave at 3:00 and not bring their kids home with them and on weekends. 

A friend posted on my wife's facebook page a joke someone passed around that said the first day of homeschool went great.  Two kids suspended and the teacher fired for drinking on the job. 

 

I know our area and some of the surrounding areas,  the kids are really going to be suffering. Some parents are really trying like mine with 2 uncooperative kids , the third is great, but many are not going to do this if they even have the time as some still work. 

Edited by auburnseeker (see edit history)
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Seeker, I know you are generally a very common sense based , intelligent person. But the comparison to the Spanish flue may have more validity than you are giving credit for. 

The virus is in the same family. OOPS sorry , I am wrong 1918 was a member of the H1N1 family.

It is a " novel " virus so none of us have any natural resistance.

It is probably at least as easy to transmit as the Spanish flue. And it is precisely because of our better understanding of transmission that the current restrictions are being enacted.

Medical science has made great strides since 1918... in the treatment of the conditions that take advantage of the body's weakened condition. But these can be very serious 

side conditions. Requiring intensive medical interventions.  And even if only 1 or 2 % of the population develops the worst complications there is the potential to overwhelm medical resources.

A vaccine is in all likelihood months if not years away. 

 

Northern Italy shows a clear example of this situation. They have at least as good a medical system as North America and they are inundated with critical cases.

There is no difference in the Italian human body compared to any one of us. The only difference is that it was early in the spread and because no precautions were being taken

the virus had the chance to become very well established.

Anything close to business as normal has the potential to put us in a similar situation.

 I agree with your assessment of all the side issues this need for " social distancing / social isolation " is causing. But it is probably the lessor of the many evils we are facing.

 

Greg in Canada

Edited by 1912Staver (see edit history)
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I still wonder the real ramifications we will not see until the dust settles.  I think the death toll from the fall out of policy will much surpass that of the disease if any way to truly figure it. Much like the virus there will be lots that were destroyed by it,  but don't show clear symptoms of being the virus itself.  I'm talking alot about business, mental and physical health of those that never actually got the virus. 

 

 

The only thing we can hope is that when the dust settles,  manufacturing can be moved back here in large form so we can be self sufficient thus spurring new job growth though I suspect much will be automated.  Time to put an end to the whole global reliance thing.  We saw how vulnerable it made us.  Nationalism isn't as bad a thing as some want you to believe. 

Edited by auburnseeker (see edit history)
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Northern Italy shows a clear example of this situation. They have at least as good a medical system as North America

 

 

 

Sorry Greg, not even close. let me know the next time you want to get an operation.  You wont want it done in Italy......... (as a matter of fact- many Canadians come to America to be operated on)

 

One quarter of the US population squeezed into a state of less parameter then Oklahoma.  Not a good idea.

 

 

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One of the strengths of Americans is that with all of our squabbling (which may keep us strong) when a general threat occurs we throw everything including the kitchen sink at it and hope/pray it is enough. Is just what we do.

 

Now the biggest hit is probably as people find they like working from home, when I started telecommuting early this century (remember seeing the second plane hit from this seat) I found that I saved and hour and a half per day and $250 in gasoline a month. Besides I always had better equipment at home and had other advantages. Being on call 24/7 was much easier and the company saved on office space and travel expenses.

 

Biggest hit will probably be to travel and entertainment industries though I see a gain in cable companies and 75"+ (heads are life sized) TVs. I remember in the 70s power companies saying they needed a rate increase because too many people were insulating their homes (also remember a few newly insulated roof collapsing because the snow was not melting - secondary effect).

 

Do suspect that people will be using less gasoline and buying fewer cars but using more power. I also suspect a lot of the new telecommuters will want to stay that way and factory automation will increase. Big comeback in Yahoo Games and RPGs.

 

Fun to speculate when nothing else is going on.

 

ps if anyone wants help in how to set up a real home office (a laptop is not enough and hard on the eyes), drop me a note.

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I don't want to split hairs. You may notice I said North America rather than the U.S.A. Regardless of who is on the oars and who is manning the helm ,North America is our collective lifeboat at this time . 

Regardless of Italy's ranking compared to the U.S. we are not talking a third world health care system. I doubt Italy's ability to treat respiratory conditions is lacking to any significant degree compared to any Western Nation.

 

 And yes , some Canadians do travel to the U.S. for medical care. But in many cases it is just because they are in a position to pay for quicker care, not for superior treatment. The vast majority of Canadians are well served by our domestic system.

Elective surgery's can at times have longer than ideal waits . Often a situation made worse by Nursing staff shortages. U.S. hospitals often pay more and many U.S. locations have a lower cost of living than is generally the case in Canada so a

significant minority of Canadian Nursing grads. end up starting their career in the U.S.  At times it is hard to keep up with the " brain drain " that plagues quite a few areas of the Canadian economy.

Urgent care situations happen quickly and competently in Canada. As far as I am aware there is no significant outcome based advantage to the U.S. system over Canada.

 

There are a few cases involving very rare conditions where the U.S. system has come up with very leading edge treatments. And sometimes Canadians are able to be treated with these advanced treatments. But this is a rare situation.

Canada has also developed some leading edge medical research and treatment. Possibly this research has been of benefit to people other than Canadians. But most likely the numbers of patients are quite small in any of these exceptional 

treatments.

 

Greg in Canada

Edited by 1912Staver (see edit history)
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47 minutes ago, auburnseeker said:

I still wonder the real ramifications we will not see until the dust settles.  I think the death toll from the fall out of policy will much surpass that of the disease if any way to truly figure it. Much like the virus there will be lots that were destroyed by it,  but don't show clear symptoms of being the virus itself.  I'm talking alot about business, mental and physical health of those that never actually got the virus. 

 

 

The only thing we can hope is that when the dust settles,  manufacturing can be moved back here in large form so we can be self sufficient thus spurring new job growth though I suspect much will be automated.  Time to put an end to the whole global reliance thing.  We saw how vulnerable it made us.  Nationalism isn't as bad a thing as some want you to believe. 

 

 

I am in 100% agreement with the danger we have put ourselves in due to globalisation.  The policy question is completely unknowable at the present ,as is the ultimate cost and death toll.

Lets hope the Western World; business , civic and political leaders, learn from the lessons this situation presents.  We were already on a perilous path prior to November 2019, many changes must be made.

 

 

Greg in 

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3 hours ago, auburnseeker said:

So must be less than 20 need hospitalization,

 

So you think there is NO problem since we have hospital beds and supplies for 20% of the USA population?????

 

Where?

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We don't know if it's 20 % or even 3 % they never put those numbers.  It's been stated 20 Percent see a doctor.  Doesn't mean are hospitalized.  I would like to know the number currently hospitalized to the number currently infected.  They are currently throwing numbers like darts at a board .  The only number they know is the dead and who is to say even all of them died of the virus.  They are probably counting people that died that had the virus but the virus may not have killed them.  I trust nothing the media is printing right now. 

I went up town today and dropped off my garbage and shipping for the day.  The one thing i can see in my small pretty rural community is the number of shuttered businesses and people being financially hurt by the decree of our Governor.  I don't think the whole state like CA should be controlled the same way as the City of NY.  Much of NY is rural.  Just that wart on the bottom is heavily populated. 

Shut down a Machine shop in some rural little town to not spread the virus when they only have a few employees anyways.  Shut down construction because those 4 carpenters working together are really going to community spread it?  Sweping decree is not the way to handle this sensibly 

We still have 1 case in our County.  I bet we had alot more.  It's cold and flue season I bet if they did widespread testing they would find 100,000 people have it and alot more have but recovered thinking it was the cold. 

Cruise ship 47 cases out of over 4000 people says alot more to me than numbers out of NY. 

They are even touting how it causes brain damage,  well yes eventually if you can't get enough oxygen over a long enough period of time your brain can be affected, ,like with many things.  That would only be in the most acute non terminal cases.  Not the probably 95 percent or better.  I can throw numbers around all day,  I just don't have a bunch of letters after my name to make them sound factual.  Lots of people have been saying things for years that haven't come true.  They are just guessing and fear sells advertising so we will only report the worse case scenario.  Way to root for the home team.   Pray our small businesses can survive and our citizenry can keep it together.  Which I fear are going to go hand in hand. 

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I heard from a friend in Michigan that there was a 2 mile line up at this TP factory in Michigan.

Also in the Toronto area the major food stores are giving Seniors there own shopping hour.

 

Toilet paper customers clog Cheboygan warehouse for rare public sale

 
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/03/19/cheboygan-toilet-paper-great-lakes-tissue-sale-coronavirus/2876199001/
 
Both Loblaws and Sobeys have said they will introduce dedicated hours to allow seniors and those with disabilities to shop as a response to the recent spike in purchasing created by consumers worried about the effects of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

The great toilet paper robbery: North Carolina truck driver is busted hauling 18,000 pounds of sought after bathroom products in a stolen trailer

  • The North Carolina truck driver was busted on Wednesday hauling 18,000 pounds of toilet paper in a stolen 18-wheeler trailer 
 
 
Edited by Mark Gregory (see edit history)
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Blood from recovered coronavirus patients could be used in a vital stop-gap treatment to help protect humanity from the COVID–19 pandemic currently spreading around the world, researchers propose.


In a new paper, infectious disease experts explain how viral antibodies, contained in the blood serum of patients who have already recovered from the new coronavirus, could then be injected into other people, offering them short-term protection.

This long-established medical remedy – called passive antibody therapy – dates back to the late 19th century, and was widely used during the 20th century to help stem outbreaks of measles, polio, mumps, and influenza.

Much as it aided us before, it could be a crucial and practical tool now in the fight against COVID–19, a team from Johns Hopkins University argues in the new study, adding that antibody therapies can also be made available with urgency.

"Deployment of this option requires no research or development," says immunologist Arturo Casadevall.

"It could be deployed within a couple of weeks since it relies on standard blood-banking practices."

For the treatment to work, recovered coronavirus patients would need to donate their blood after recovering from COVID–19 and while still convalescing from the disease. During this phase, the blood serum would contain high amounts of natural antibodies produced to combat the SARS-CoV–2 virus.


Once the body produces them in response to pathogens, such antibodies can remain circulating in the blood for months and even years after an infection.

 

http://www.sciencealert.com/a-classic-therapy-from-the-1890s-could-help-protect-against-coronavirus-experts-say

 

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10 minutes ago, Mark Gregory said:

I heard from a friend in Michigan that there was a 2 mile line up at this TP factory in Michigan.

Also in the Toronto area the major food stores are giving Seniors there own shopping hour.

 

Toilet paper customers clog Cheboygan warehouse for rare public sale

 
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/03/19/cheboygan-toilet-paper-great-lakes-tissue-sale-coronavirus/2876199001/
 
Both Loblaws and Sobeys have said they will introduce dedicated hours to allow seniors and those with disabilities to shop as a response to the recent spike in purchasing created by consumers worried about the effects of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
 
 

 

I don't see what the big deal about TP is all about. I just use the cat. By the next morning she's good to go again...🙂......Bob

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Well gas is under $2/gallon here. Don't need any though. Interesting listening to the talking heads. Sounds like they would rather spend years testing and let many die. Suspect there would be no shortage of volunteers. Wonder how long it will take for the bottom to drop out of the used car market.

 

I've missed SARS, a Rapture, and the Mayan calendar overflow.  Looking at the current figures for Florida (think Fox said it was a disaster here) is about a 2% death rate.  Considering that this is "God's waiting room" seems low. Would think they should be studying the people who recovered or who are immune. But that is harder than talking about testing drugs.

 

ps I have a bidet.

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2 hours ago, auburnseeker said:

We don't know if it's 20 % or even 3 % they never put those numbers.  It's been stated 20 Percent see a doctor.  Doesn't mean are hospitalized.  I would like to know the number currently hospitalized to the number currently infected.  They are currently throwing numbers like darts at a board .  The only number they know is the dead and who is to say even all of them died of the virus.  They are probably counting people that died that had the virus but the virus may not have killed them.  I trust nothing the media is printing right now. 

I went up town today and dropped off my garbage and shipping for the day.  The one thing i can see in my small pretty rural community is the number of shuttered businesses and people being financially hurt by the decree of our Governor.  I don't think the whole state like CA should be controlled the same way as the City of NY.  Much of NY is rural.  Just that wart on the bottom is heavily populated. 

Shut down a Machine shop in some rural little town to not spread the virus when they only have a few employees anyways.  Shut down construction because those 4 carpenters working together are really going to community spread it?  Sweping decree is not the way to handle this sensibly 

We still have 1 case in our County.  I bet we had alot more.  It's cold and flue season I bet if they did widespread testing they would find 100,000 people have it and alot more have but recovered thinking it was the cold. 

Cruise ship 47 cases out of over 4000 people says alot more to me than numbers out of NY. 

They are even touting how it causes brain damage,  well yes eventually if you can't get enough oxygen over a long enough period of time your brain can be affected, ,like with many things.  That would only be in the most acute non terminal cases.  Not the probably 95 percent or better.  I can throw numbers around all day,  I just don't have a bunch of letters after my name to make them sound factual.  Lots of people have been saying things for years that haven't come true.  They are just guessing and fear sells advertising so we will only report the worse case scenario.  Way to root for the home team.   Pray our small businesses can survive and our citizenry can keep it together.  Which I fear are going to go hand in hand. 

 

 

Seeker I agree 100% about the much lower risk in rural areas.  But you have to remember it's the government making these decisions based on the greatest risk reduction to the large population centers. Trying to  decide on say a county to county basis just complicates the process. I can see their point of view, get people in step with what are deemed probable most effective measures. Things can always be re visited and relaxed in a week or two if everything seems to be under control.

I think many policy makers are closely watching China for indications of safety or further public risk from their relaxing of restrictions. Remember the latency period, it makes cause and effect linkage  appear to be working in slow motion.

 

Greg

Edited by 1912Staver (see edit history)
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The problem with NY city is they never give any thought to how anything effects upstate.  Would have been easy to put it many other ways than to just lock the whole state down.   One just has to point to the land conservancy which buys land that's been heavily logged and sells it to the state (which is broke) at a profit,  to keep forever wild while shutting down the logging industry and any local business not in lock step with their "plan for the Adirondacks",  which by the way already has millions of acres we pretty much aren't allowed to use that are "saved" for us.  Other than the tourism I have watched the towns industry fold up one by one.  Won't be much tourism now if everyone is broke. 

Edited by auburnseeker (see edit history)
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Oh Boy!

Pa's governor has shut the state's businesses for the most part down.

The following is a reported quote from Governor Wolf:

"The order will be enforced by state troopers, local officials (?), Health and Agriculture officials, and liquor control board officers.

Criminal prosecution is also a possibility with violators subject to fines or imprisonment".

His spokes person later said that miscreants could be subject to "forced closures"

WTF!

Yowee! Yowee! Yowee!.....................Bob

Edited by Bhigdog (see edit history)
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I don't see too much more essential than a gun and ammo right now for self protection.  Chaos is going to descend upon us if we aren't careful how this all plays out.  There is an element in our society that is barely stable and I think they are destabilizing by the minute with each sensationalized news report. 

I'm a very easy going guy,  but even my hair on the back of my neck is standing up from what I am seeing.  Unprecedented steps being taken every day.  We have never seen this type of control exerted over the USA.  No previous pandemic, natural disaster or attack was handled with such swift blanketing moves that restricted business and freedom.  

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HERE IS THE SOLUTION !

 

In Congress, July 4, 1776. The Declaration Of Independence

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.“That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, ”

That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.–Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavored to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor

-- 
" When Tar and Feathers became politically incorrect, We The People started losing Control''!!
    A Renagade In The Wilderness
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