Stock Market versus Classic Car Market

[Steve_Mack_CT]

38 minutes ago, auburnseeker said:

I've still got $100 left.  What's the address? 

You haven't gotten your running board bill yet remember? 😁😁

[auburnseeker]

44 minutes ago, jdome said:

 

You're too late. It looks like he's talking to a buyer on his cellphone already.

That's just a tire kicker telling him he'll pay him payments once he starts his new job.  

[auburnseeker]

36 minutes ago, Steve_Mack_CT said:

You haven't gotten your running board bill yet remember? 😁😁

No but I got the Matts and they are Purdy.  Visa paid for them.  I suppose they will want their money back though in 30 days.

[Ed Luddy]

On 3/9/2020 at 8:59 AM, Matt Harwood said:

Whenever there's a downturn in the economy, we see it in our showroom first. February was pretty good, but March has been a desert so far. Not enough for me to be concerned, but there's probably a recession coming. The factors are many, but why would I let that stop me from enjoying my hobby? I don't see too many guys saying, "Well, looks like the stock market's down, better stop woodworking for a while."

 

As to whether the car market and the stock market are linked, well, that's only if your income is taxed at cap gains rate. I don't know many guys getting a paycheck every week who are basing their car buying decisions on whether their portfolio is down 10 points. They may, however, stop buying cars because they're afraid of losing their jobs. It all depends on how long and how deep it goes. It doesn't take much to spook a vast majority of Americans--we're an easily spooked people these days.

 

Cars are bad "investments" in the traditional sense, but at the same time they're a durable good that always has value. Instead of thinking of it as an investment or a money-making opportunity, look at it as a place to park some money where it won't turn into vapor because someone you don't know in a place that's not local to you does something ill-advised. You may lose some money, but short of a fire burning the car to ashes, you will always be able to get some or even most of your money back. Not many hobbies can claim the same.

 

Enjoy life. Do what you enjoy. Quality of life really matters. The economy always rebounds. Life goes on. Time is short. Don't live in fear.

Up here in Canada the used car market is slow, new cars the same. As for "classic's" asking prices are strong, real sales? Not so much. European buyers like the Canadian dollar as well as USA buyers. So I do see activity in the export market for decent cars, fairly priced. But as the Boomer's age I see a lot of cars sitting unused. This is usually followed by "for sale" at sky high prices. That's followed by estate sales from the inheritors.

[1912Staver]

Ed, that is what I am seeing out on the West coast as well.

 

Greg in Canada

[padgett]

As stocks decline so does disposable income. Unfortunately seller's expectation does not follow buyer's fears so I am seeing a lot of interesting cars for sale again for the same price or a less than `10% drop. And while pristine cars are slow, sales of high mileage (over 50k)  driver's are not selling at all or for wholesale prices.

 

Of course the lemmings are panicking over what is now a pandemic. And they have both stripped supermarket shelves and have a new "price gouging" hotline. The local schools have cancelled any outing involving air travel, and conventions are being cancelled right and left. Since over half of the sales taxes in Florida are paid by tourists this could be a real problem real soon.

[Ed Luddy]

2 hours ago, 1912Staver said:

Ed, that is what I am seeing out on the West coast as well.

 

Greg in Canada

Yes. Fact of life. 

Priorities change as you age. At least for me and some of my friends. I've been asked many times how fast my 2016 Hemi Charger will do. I tell them to check online as I haven't a clue. It scares me. Same as my 2006 Daytona, never could find a long enough open, clear road to find out.  I've given trying to tempt the devil as I did so many times in a 1969 Charger R/T or 1970 Cobra Torino 429 when I was young." Youth is wasted on the young" rings far too loud at retirement age.  The thrill of cars now seems "wasted on those who don't care"

[1912Staver]

I am retired for over a year now but I still enjoy going fast. But not on the street, the penalty's  today are wallet flattening. Bought a Lola sports racer late last year. Its a heck of a lot cheaper than a Hemi Charger but very entertaining to drive. I was hoping to have it on the track this summer but I can see now it's not going to happen until next year.

Race meetings might end up being canceled this year anyway, along with who knows what else.

 

Greg in Canada

[60FlatTop]

14 hours ago, mike6024 said:

I lost a lot of money recently, with this situation.

 

 

 

I was reading and thinking about the stock market. At first glance I thought this said "I lost a lot of money recently, it was an illusion."

[1912Staver]

The stock market has always made up its losses ,...given enough time. I doubt this time will be any different. But the short to medium term is very murky. As long as you don't need dividends or capital { retirement income for example } for the near future  ; 1 -3 years, you will probably do alright. Anyone say a decade from retirement can probably just call this noise in a bigger picture context.

 

Greg in Canada

[Matt Harwood]

As with cars, you don't lose any money in the stock market until you sell. Right now, I still own the stuff I owned before. It's less valuable, but it wasn't money I was spending anyway. It will be back to where it was before (or beyond) by the time I need it.

 

I understand day traders losing their minds because they make their money by trading stocks in volume and by earning on half-cent moves, but for a vast majority of people the stock market's condition isn't a very good barometer of what's going on financially. It scares everyone because everyone makes a big deal out of it and 1929 is always hanging over us like the angel of death. Most folks are only indirectly affected by the stock market and only if problems continue long-term. My step-father watches the stock market minute-by-minute and loses his mind each evening because he calculates how much he "lost" that day. Of course, the next day, he makes it back and then some, then the day after that he may lose again. Who wants to suffer like that? Long term, the trajectory is always upwards.

 

Personally, I'm buying right now. 20% discount. It isn't going to be like this forever or even for very long, so I may as well take advantage of the mass sell off.

[Bhigdog]

44 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:

As long as you don't need dividends or capital { retirement income for example } for the near future 

 

I'm just a retired nobody with a high school education. Three weeks ago I had two highly educated wealth advisors with all kinds of letters after their names question why I keep 10% of my portfolio in cash. My answer was because if there is a huge downturn I would have a cash reserve and not be forced to sell in a down market. They both gently said was being overly cautious and was leaving money on the table.

Now there is money left on the table. My table.

So much for highly educated people, in expensive suits, with a lot of letters behind their names...........Cheers........Bob

Edited March 12, 2020 by Bhigdog (see edit history)

[1912Staver]

1 hour ago, Matt Harwood said:

As with cars, you don't lose any money in the stock market until you sell. Right now, I still own the stuff I owned before. It's less valuable, but it wasn't money I was spending anyway. It will be back to where it was before (or beyond) by the time I need it.

 

I understand day traders losing their minds because they make their money by trading stocks in volume and by earning on half-cent moves, but for a vast majority of people the stock market's condition isn't a very good barometer of what's going on financially. It scares everyone because everyone makes a big deal out of it and 1929 is always hanging over us like the angel of death. Most folks are only indirectly affected by the stock market and only if problems continue long-term. My step-father watches the stock market minute-by-minute and loses his mind each evening because he calculates how much he "lost" that day. Of course, the next day, he makes it back and then some, then the day after that he may lose again. Who wants to suffer like that? Long term, the trajectory is always upwards.

 

Personally, I'm buying right now. 20% discount. It isn't going to be like this forever or even for very long, so I may as well take advantage of the mass sell off.

 

 

I am not convinced the current 20% discount is worth the risk.  We seem to be very early in the overall situation .  The potential for a large , world wide economic change is a definite possibility.  Yes, without a doubt after a length of time things will gradually return to normal. The million $ question is what is that length of time ?

 

Greg in Canada

Edited March 12, 2020 by 1912Staver (see edit history)

[mercer09]

So much for highly educated people, in expensive suits, with a lot of letters behind their names..

 

Hey, I resemble that remark.......................!

 

🙂

[mercer09]

I am not convinced the current 20% discount is worth the risk.  We seem to be very early in the overall situation .  The potential for a large , world wide economic change is a definite possibility.  Yes, without a doubt after a length of time things will gradually return to normal. The million $ question is what is that length of time ?

 

no balls, no glory.

[John_S_in_Penna]

1 hour ago, Bhigdog said:

I'm just a retired nobody with a high school education. Three weeks ago I had two highly educated wealth advisors with all kinds of letters after their names question why I keep 10% of my portfolio in cash.

 

That's very unusual for a financial advisor to say that.

Wisdom always recommends keeping some cash or 

cash equivalents, and a larger percentage for retired people.

 

21 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:

The potential for a large , world wide economic change is a definite possibility.  Yes, without a doubt after a length of time things will gradually return to normal.

 

Whenever you begin to hear "experts" on television

saying "this time is different," that means the emotion

(fear or exuberance) has reached its extreme and

the market will start to equilibrate!  In the late 1990's

internet boom, it was said, "This time is different--the

internet is so life-changing that old valuations don't apply."

Then the prices returned to normal.  In the 2007-2009

economic debacle, the rout was so extreme that

"This time is different.  Things may never come back."

Then the huge upturn from 6000 to 20,000+ began.

 

So folks, enjoy your cars;  maybe buy another one;

and don't get caught up in the emotional extremes of

the financial markets!

[Bhigdog]

13 minutes ago, John_S_in_Penna said:

That's very unusual for a financial advisor to say that.

Wisdom always recommends keeping some cash or 

cash equivalents, and a larger percentage for retired people.

 

 

Likely because of the dollar amount number.

13 minutes ago, John_S_in_Penna said:

So folks, enjoy your cars;  maybe buy another one;

and don't get caught up in the emotional extremes of

the financial markets!

 

Excellent advice. Other than checking the DOW and S&P from time to time I haven't actually checked my portfolio for the last 2 weeks. I sleep well at night resting my head on that soft 10% pillow of comfort.

Please wake me when it's over................Bob

Edited March 12, 2020 by Bhigdog (see edit history)

[1912Staver]

2 hours ago, mercer09 said:

I am not convinced the current 20% discount is worth the risk.  We seem to be very early in the overall situation .  The potential for a large , world wide economic change is a definite possibility.  Yes, without a doubt after a length of time things will gradually return to normal. The million $ question is what is that length of time ?

 

no balls, no glory.

 

I am not saying buying is a bad idea , just buying right now might not a wise move. A month to six weeks from now might be more  prudent.  It's always a calculated risk but at the moment further drops seem a given.

 

Greg in Canada

Edited March 12, 2020 by 1912Staver (see edit history)

[Bhigdog]

3 hours ago, mercer09 said:

no balls, no glory.

 

Faint hearts never fair maidens won.

OTOH.........

Said maidens, after being won, ended up taking their non faint hearted suiters to the cleaners.

Your results may vary....🙂........Bob

[edinmass]

The world has been coming to an end every day for the last 10,000 years. Currency collapses, governments fall, countries fade away, and the beat goes on. Nothing ever changes, except I get older every day............eventually too this will change, and then I will worry about it.

 

As for today, I’ll drive my cars, enjoy my friends and family, and all the blessing of this great country. Tomorrow is another day. 

[padgett]

Have always been a bit of a contrarian. Most of my major changes were made during unfavorable times. May even find an inexpensive XLR.

 

From an economic standpoint these times in Florida are "interesting".

[Ed Luddy]

Well for me it's Damn the Torpedo's, full speed ahead! Bought a 1981 Corvette that's been sitting in a nice dry garage for the last 20 years.

[mercer09]

live while you can..

 

saw a billboard last weekend around Maryland..........

 

all it said was  "ACHIEVE MORE"

 

 why not?

[Dandy Dave]

Thinking about it. I bought my 1982 Buick Riviera  Ragtop around 2008 or 2009 when the housing market crashed. Bid $3600. and won. I thought it would have sold for over $5,000. It probably would have if it wasn't for the housing market crash. Glad I put my money in the car as it is a joy to drive. And I still have all of it. Dandy Dave!  

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Dandy Dave (see edit history)

[Bhigdog]

In the middle of the 08 crash I remember driving home from my chrome  guy with a truck full of re-plated parts and my wallet about $16,000 lighter. I felt sick. Market recovered and I made money on the car. It WILL be OK.................Bob

[alsancle]

15 minutes ago, Bhigdog said:

In the middle of the 08 crash I remember driving home from my chrome  guy with a truck full of re-plated parts and my wallet about $16,000 lighter. I felt sick. Market recovered and I made money on the car. It WILL be OK.................Bob

 

It would be interesting to see at this point if it was possible to make money on any car with the only data point being that you spent 16k doing chrome.   That amount of chrome indicates a full restoration to me,  which indicates a lot of money,  which indicates being upside down.   At least that is the way it always works for me.

[Bhigdog]

36 minutes ago, alsancle said:

 

It would be interesting to see at this point if it was possible to make money on any car with the only data point being that you spent 16k doing chrome.   That amount of chrome indicates a full restoration to me,  which indicates a lot of money,  which indicates being upside down.   At least that is the way it always works for me.

 

Yes, full restoration on a "chrome rich" car. I was not upside down because other than chrome and having the seats sewn at a local trim shop and the door panels made I do everything myself. That said, if I paid a shop's labor rate or even a living wage to myself I would be well under water dollar wise.

My pay off was the enjoyment of doing the work and the satisfaction of seeing the completed car being well received by my peers.

Coming out ahead dollar wise is just icing on the cake............Bob

Edited March 13, 2020 by Bhigdog (see edit history)

[60FlatTop]

6 hours ago, Bhigdog said:

In the middle of the 08 crash I remember

 

At that time I heard banks were not letting anyone have money, just a comment I heard in the coffee shop. I came home and filled out an online application with my credit union for a 3 year old Jaguar as a test. The next day I got a call from a woman who sounded quite close to my age. She said "Your loan has been approved and you can pick up the money at your convenience. However, do you know those Jaguars can have really expensive problems?". I thanked her and said I was kind of testing a rumor.

She got an A+ in banking services and my favorite out of a couple we use.

 

As for those guys with the string of letters, don't the letters mean the were good followers of the good followers who had the same letters and followed the accreditation rules, Ohhhhh, sheepskin, I get it, following the flock.

 

Bernie

[Ed Luddy]

6 hours ago, Dandy Dave said:

Thinking about it. I bought my 1982 Buick Riviera  Ragtop around 2008 or 2009 when the housing market crashed. Bid $3600. and won. I thought it would have sold for over $5,000. It probably would have if it wasn't for the housing market crash. Glad I put my money in the car as it is a joy to drive. And I still have all of it. Dandy Dave!  

 

I like that car! Had a white on red 82 many years back. Such a nice driving car.

[DAVES89]

7 hours ago, Dandy Dave said:

Thinking about it. I bought my 1982 Buick Riviera  Ragtop around 2008 or 2009 when the housing market crashed. Bid $3600. and won. I thought it would have sold for over $5,000. It probably would have if it wasn't for the housing market crash. Glad I put my money in the car as it is a joy to drive. And I still have all of it. Dandy Dave!  

 

Het that car has a great looking dash! Where did you get it?

[padgett]

Have ltsa letters just different ones since retired. It has always been a hobby and takes no more than I can afford (for some reason in the last few years I've given more cars away to needy people than I have bought. stopped when one complained it wasn't new, last new car I bought for myself was in 1978).

 

Do have a bid in on a car I think is reasonable (seller want's more. Also has not sold).

[Bhigdog]

My financial advisor says the market is in a "price discovery mode". In other words: "How the heck would I know." This from the highly educated guy, in the expensive suit, with a string of letters behind his name.   Haw! Haw! Haw!.............Bob

[padgett]

Makes sense since this has never happened before so their tables are useless. Think this is a very good time to be liquid.

[Dandy Dave]

17 hours ago, DAVES89 said:

Het that car has a great looking dash! Where did you get it?

Got it off of Flebay. It came from the Orland Florida Area and was a good rust free body. I cleaned the carburetor and did a few other things and it runs and drives well. Almost bought a Reatta at the time for three times the money but Glad I got the Riv instead. With that said I would not give it up for a pile of Reattas either. Dandy Dave!  

[mercer09]

My financial advisor .......

 

 

 

every time I hear that term, I have to laugh........... remembering 2000 and 2008 and my friends!

 

every 27 something back then was a "financial advisor"

[DAVES89]

13 hours ago, Dandy Dave said:

Got it off of Flebay. It came from the Orland Florida Area and was a good rust free body. I cleaned the carburetor and did a few other things and it runs and drives well. Almost bought a Reatta at the time for three times the money but Glad I got the Riv instead. With that said I would not give it up for a pile of Reattas either. Dandy Dave!  

I was just mess'n with you. You bought the dash from me...

[Dandy Dave]

7 hours ago, DAVES89 said:

I was just mess'n with you. You bought the dash from me...

I remember. 

[mercer09]

some wonderful stock deals out there folks!

 

forget the cars.......just rust and rot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

🙂

[Bhigdog]

49 minutes ago, mercer09 said:

some wonderful stock deals out there folks!

 

forget the cars.......just rust and rot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

🙂

 

YES! YES! YES!........Everybody......... BUY! BUY! BUY!......... The time to BUY is when there is blood in the streets.... Me?.... I think I'll hide under the bed for awhile..................Bob

[1935Packard]

My guess is that the economy is going to get its butt kicked, in an unprecedented way, because all except for the essentials and the online will be shut down for a few months globally.  I live in the Bay Area of northern California, and as of midnight basically everything requiring you to leave your home is being shut down except for the essentials. We're seeing this in many countries and we're going to see it in more places in the U.S, too. With everyone at home -- forced to be at home -- for many weeks, if not months, it seems pretty likely that significant sectors of the economy are going to basically dry up.  God willing, eventually we'll be able to loosen that and get more back to semi-normal, but I think it will happen gradually. 

 

We have not experienced anything like that before, and I don't think it has been fully appreciated how much that will hurt businesses around the world.  

 

In terms of the classic car market, we're talking about a time, for a few months at least,  in which there are no car shows, repair shops are closed, and older drivers are required to stay home and not go out in a car.  If a car is for sale, people can't or won't come by to see it or fly out to see it.  And God forbid if the virus spreads widely and has the same mortality rate it has had elsewhere, what happens to the people in the hobby.   If this is accompanied by the hit to the economy generally that I am suspecting would happen (see above), I wouldn't be surprised if it is super rough on the classic car market. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by 1935Packard (see edit history)