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Selling price V/S guide price?


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I have been trying to sell a car that has a guide price between $16,000 and $22,000 (4 or 3 value).

 I have offered it at $18,000 and have not received any offers.

 I really think that is a high #3.

 Does anyone have an opinion what the selling price has in common with the "book" value

 

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Most old car price guides are extremely optimistic. Typically they are only based on data from high end auctions, which are not the real world. There is no way they can get data from private party sales. The data might be relatively accurate for cars that are sold frequently (Camaros, Corvettes, Mustangs), but for most off-brand cars, there aren't enough sold at those auctions to form a statistically valid sample size. Search completed auctions on ebay. You'll find that virtually none of the high dollar cars ever sell, and the cars that do sell are typically low dollar.

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Very little. Here are a few other price guides to reference, and you'll note that they rarely agree with one another:

 

http://caaarguide.com/makeandmodel.html

 

https://www.nadaguides.com/Cars/Manufacturers?from=classic

 

http://www.collectorcarmarket.com/

 

https://www.hagerty.com/apps/valuationtools/search/auto

 

Price is really all that matters, and you need to remember that price guides are based on a long history. With values falling in many sectors of the hobby, the price guides can't possibly adjust fast enough on most cars simply because the sample size is too small. Mustangs, Corvettes, even Model As, which change hands publicly and frequently are relatively easy to value, but anything unusual is a guess at best. It's probably safe to assume that current values are 10-20% less than you think and what the price guides say. There's a market correction going on right now, but it's happening so slowly almost nobody has noticed. For example, 1957 Chevy Bel Air convertibles, which were formerly blue-chip cars, have lost 40% in the last 7 or 8 years. That's significant, but since it wasn't an overnight "crash" nobody really noticed. Remember when they were easy $100K cars? Look around now--all the '57 Chevy ragtops you want for $60 grand. That's substantial and it's happening at every level to every kind of car except the very top.

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My feeling is the price guides are more to estimate insurance/appraisal value and do not reflect selling prices though for a nice driver/local show worthy car, #4 is not bad and #3 is optimistic.

 

Also there is no regional adjustment while prices vary all over the country. Florida has a lot of nice cars (if you avoid east coast cars - upper body rust) for lower prices so great if buying, not so if selling.

 

For example Hagerty puts my '70 Judge (4 spd/AC) #4 at about $50k (everything on the site is copyrighted). I would doubt the real world would support that.

 

 

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If you look in the Price Guide you'll find they sometimes have a price for a Roadster in years the manufacture didn't offer a Roadster.

Its just a guess based on known sales and often adjusted  just because they don't have new data.  Auction prices and real world private sales prices are

usually far apart.

Edited by Paul Dobbin
Spill Check (see edit history)
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56 minutes ago, Paul Dobbin said:

If you look in the Price Guide you'll they sometines have a orice for a Roadster in yeas the manufacture didn't offer a Roadster.

Its just a guess based on known sales and often adjusted  just becasue they don't have new data.

 

These guides simply extrapolate the limited data they have. That makes them suspect at best. They frequently show percentage increases or decreases for options that didn't exist in the model line or year in question, so again, the validity of their data is questionable.

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If you read the preface to the NADA collector-car

price guide, you'll see their explanation:  their prices,

they admit, are higher than other guides', but their

prices are for ALL-ORIGINAL cars.  The prices that

they list on their internet site are presumably the same.

 

Just a note of explanation to help everyone make

some sense of all this!

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1 hour ago, John_S_in_Penna said:

If you read the preface to the NADA collector-car

price guide, you'll see their explanation:  their prices,

they admit, are higher than other guides', but their

prices are for ALL-ORIGINAL cars.  The prices that

they list on their internet site are presumably the same.

 

Just a note of explanation to help everyone make

some sense of all this!

 

Their data still comes only from a limited subset of all sales. There is no way any price guide can know and incorporate data from private sales. If all they use are public high-end auction sales, of course the data is skewed high.

And to my previous point, here's why I think all these price guides are BS. When try to determine the value of a 1969 Olds 442, this is the page that comes up to select options. The listed 350 engine and both of those 455 engines were not available on a 1969 442. The six cylinder engine was DEFINITELY not available. Yet the site allows me to select them and gives me a price.  You'll understand why I'm skeptical of any data on that site. (And before someone points out that the Hurst/Olds came with a 455, it was neither the 390 HP version nor the 400 HP version).

 

 

FireShot Capture 131 - Used 1969 Oldsmobile 442 2 Door Hardt_ - https___www.nadaguides.com_Cars_19.png

Edited by joe_padavano (see edit history)
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Joe: you are one of the few people who know that level of detail, not what anyone wants in a Judge.

I still like the '69 Rallye 350 even in Saturn Yellow. Olds was really the best of the 350 "corporate" engines.

 

+15% 4 speed, +10% Ac. Really ?

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Cars or parts, the only price that matters is the one you and the buyer agree to. That $10,000 car can sell a lot cheaper if you need $6,000-7,000 for something else. That "Loss" gets forgotten once the wanted replacement is in your garage. Bob 

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If you want to know if your car’s value, just ask a few of the regulars here. Matt knows the post war prices better than anyone else. Pre war is more of a hit and miss. Rule of thumb. It’s worth half of what you think it is, 95 percent of the time. 

Edited by edinmass (see edit history)
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2 hours ago, padgett said:

Joe: you are one of the few people who know that level of detail, not what anyone wants in a Judge.

I still like the '69 Rallye 350 even in Saturn Yellow. Olds was really the best of the 350 "corporate" engines.

 

+15% 4 speed, +10% Ac. Really ?

 

Things are changing,   that plus 15% 4 speed used to be more like plus 30%,   but now I think it is a wash as many people want the auto or can't drive a stick or are too old.    The A/C on the other hand seems to be a bigger and bigger deal.

 

I just sold two musclecars last year,   #1 was a  4 speed convertible and #2 was a Automatic fastback with Air.    #2 sold much faster than #1.   Neither of them brought anywhere near what I would have thought.

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31 minutes ago, edinmass said:

If you want to know if your car’s value, just ask a few of the regulars here. Matt knows the post war prices better than anyone else. Pre war is more of a hit and miss. Rule of thumb. It’s worth half of what you think it is, 95 percent of the time. 

 

You are smarter than you look.

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11 hours ago, edinmass said:

If you want to know if your car’s value, just ask a few of the regulars here. Matt knows the post war prices better than anyone else. Pre war is more of a hit and miss. Rule of thumb. It’s worth half of what you think it is, 95 percent of the time. 

 

 

 Ok, the car that I am wanting to know the value is a 1971 Impala convertible with a reman 402 (200 miles) auto, air, frame off restoration. Needs a top.

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Also depends on where you are, value of a 'vert depends on weather. Does sound like an "executive special" and 402/THM400 (not a 400/THM350) would make a nice period tow car for a 'vette or Camaro

 

ps FYI in 71 Chev had a 400 (350 opened up & cooling problems) and a 402 (396 bored a bit). can tell by the shape of the valve covers.

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52 minutes ago, Roger Walling said:

 

 

 Ok, the car that I am wanting to know the value is a 1971 Impala convertible with a reman 402 (200 miles) auto, air, frame off restoration. Needs a top.

 

Unfortunately, one man's "frame off" is another man's rattle-can restoration. Without detailed photos, it's impossible to offer a valid estimate.

Edited by joe_padavano (see edit history)
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1 hour ago, joe_padavano said:

 

Unfortunately, one man's "frame off" is another man's rattle-can restoration. Without detailed photos, it's impossible to offer a valid estimate.

 

Ain't that the truth, brother. I can't tell you how many guys call and tell me their cars are "mint" or "perfect" and then a garden-variety #3 driver shows up. It's not a crime, but most guys just don't know the difference.

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Over the years I have purchased several cars from pictures and sellers descriptions.   When they arrived I thought, if I had seen it, I would have passed, 

but I was still glad I bought it.   Had some good times with them and sold them on with some difficulty.   The memories were better than the cars.

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There are so many factors that affect  a car's value that no one guide could ever be perfect.  Unlike new or late model cars condition is a lot more subjective and the amount of sales a lot less.  I would say the guides do a pretty good job overall and that without question there are a lot of inaccuracies in them.  There are extremely few #1 & #2 cars.  In the case of # 1 cars most trade privately so they don't get seen by the data bases.  Secondly trends can change quickly though prices change slowly.  In the case of a trend change the market can be caught with a lot of cars in a particular condition which makes yours hard to sell, doesn't mean it won't. Presentation is really important, if your ad lacks detail and a lot of good photos your less likely to be able to sell your car no matter what the price especially if it is not highly sought after.  Which brings me to the last point and often most painful, just because the car is "rare" or "special to you" doesn't mean it is desirable and often just won't bring the money.  Auction are not the best way to buy or sell a car but they do in fact sell a huge amount and you can learn a lot from the numbers.  In the lowest tier of the market I think there are very few bargains at auctions.  

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Looked at a car today. "Garage Kept, non smoker, ice cold air, new tires, everything works". Well the non-smoking was true but the headlights were fried, GPS needed a missing CD, hot idle oil pressure was 10-15 psi, CHMSL didn't work, AC was cool, and the paint was dull. Hole in seat and wear marks on the steering wheel. Tires were new in 2015.

 

Sturgeon's law in effect.

 

Am strange, I usually describe a car as worse than it is and leave a few pluses out.

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  • 11 months later...
On 2/18/2020 at 10:05 AM, Roger Walling said:

I have been trying to sell a car that has a guide price between $16,000 and $22,000 (4 or 3 value).

 I have offered it at $18,000 and have not received any offers.

 I really think that is a high #3.

 Does anyone have an opinion what the selling price has in common with the "book" value

 

Is it still available? 404-983-6987

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On 2/20/2020 at 9:43 PM, padgett said:

Looked at a car today. "Garage Kept, non smoker, ice cold air, new tires, everything works". Well the non-smoking was true but the headlights were fried, GPS needed a missing CD, hot idle oil pressure was 10-15 psi, CHMSL didn't work, AC was cool, and the paint was dull. Hole in seat and wear marks on the steering wheel. Tires were new in 2015.

 

Sturgeon's law in effect.

 

Am strange, I usually describe a car as worse than it is and leave a few pluses out.

Do you know if the 71 impala is still available? 404-983-6987

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Funny thing about Price Guides and early cars.   I would love to be a buyer at those prices,

but not a seller.   A #4 at #1 price is the norm and most buyers want it the other way around.

A #1 or #2 that is really that is fair, but the negotiation is over condition more than the value.

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Invented the #6 - a car you would pay more to just take parts and leave the rest.

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1 hour ago, padgett said:

Invented the #6 - a car you would pay more to just take parts and leave the rest.

 

Ha, I sold a non running VW square back many years ago that I allowed a few bucks for on a boat sale.

Several days in a row I would see a few parts being gone. So one night I saw the  buyer pulling something and followed him home.

Told him that he bought the complete car, not just the parts. He never came back but somehow the remains ended up in his driveway. Hehe.

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On 2/19/2020 at 9:09 PM, edinmass said:

If you want to know if your car’s value, just ask a few of the regulars here. Matt knows the post war prices better than anyone else. Pre war is more of a hit and miss. Rule of thumb. It’s worth half of what you think it is, 95 percent of the time. 

 

So, "rule of thumb", it would be O.K. to offer half of the asking price? 

 

Cheers,

Grog

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Can offer anything it is worth to you. Have been a few time over the years have bought for half the asking but was what I considered it was worth. Once got ready to leave and seller chased me down the driveway.

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6 hours ago, capngrog said:

 

So, "rule of thumb", it would be O.K. to offer half of the asking price? 

 

Cheers,

Grog

 

It depends.   I've offered under half of ask and ended up with the car.   But that was after the seller told me to make an offer and I told him I didn't want to offend him.     If a seller is motivated and you happen to be the only one dumb enough to step up accommodations are sometimes made.

 

All depends on the market for the car and the eagerness of the seller to sell.

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9 hours ago, capngrog said:

 

So, "rule of thumb", it would be O.K. to offer half of the asking price? 

 

Cheers,

Grog

 

2 hours ago, alsancle said:

 

It depends.   I've offered under half of ask and ended up with the car.   But that was after the seller told me to make an offer and I told him I didn't want to offend him.     If a seller is motivated and you happen to be the only one dumb enough to step up accommodations are sometimes made.

 

All depends on the market for the car and the eagerness of the seller to sell.

 

I, on the other hand, will hang up on you.

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The price guide doesn't own, buy or sell cars. They are in business to sell a book. If you want to know how good they are find a car you want to buy in the guide. Then call them up and ask them to find you one for their price. Better yet call them up and get them to buy your car at their price.

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Something else I have noticed over the years. When the price guides are slow to keep up with a market people try to use them as a buying tool. But when the price guide matches what you are asking people say it is not accurate.

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