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Musk's Cyber Truck speed bump


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30 Dodge Panel wrote 

The one question that the pioneers answered that Musk in his ideology hasn't is:
Is there a need...?

 

All climate and political discussions aside, the obvious answer is no

 

Seriously 30DP! Climate Change Concern is the primary, some might argue the only factor in the decisions by governments and entrepreneurs in creating these prototypes. It's like saying Preservation of Food aside, who in their right mind would want to buy a Fridge! Within 10 years, like it or not, EV Trucks are going to command the market, you heard it here first folks, and you can quote me! BTW, I can't remember the last time I saw a $60,000 Crew cab pickup go by with more than one person in it, and with anything in the bed except a tonneau cover!! My personal observation is that 90% of pickups trucks are grocery haulers 90% of the time, except perhaps in ranch country. 

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24 minutes ago, Gunsmoke said:

30 Dodge Panel wrote 

The one question that the pioneers answered that Musk in his ideology hasn't is:
Is there a need...?

 

All climate and political discussions aside, the obvious answer is no

 

Seriously 30DP! Climate Change Concern is the primary, some might argue the only factor in the decisions by governments and entrepreneurs in creating these prototypes. It's like saying Preservation of Food aside, who in their right mind would want to buy a Fridge! Within 10 years, like it or not, EV Trucks are going to command the market, you heard it here first folks, and you can quote me! BTW, I can't remember the last time I saw a $60,000 Crew cab pickup go by with more than one person in it, and with anything in the bed except a tonneau cover!! My personal observation is that 90% of pickups trucks are grocery haulers 90% of the time, except perhaps in ranch country. 

 

Obviously my point was not to get into the climate or political side of the discussion for fear of diluting the conversation. At least, I thought I made that obvious... I guess not. 

 

We understand your points and well taken but I'm sorry to tell you, not all agree with your view points. 

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I've been venturing into Manhattan a few times this year and I have not seen a single gas station in there. The only one I've seen is right at the start of the NYS Thruway and that's up a little bit. I have idly wondered where the taxis fuel up.

 

Every time I've been to the city I've seen old cars. Have not explored much of it yet but I didn't expect that, it does not seem like an old car friendly place. I was wrong apparently. My very first trip to the Bronx for the Fordham museum yielded a1959 Cadillac driving into there as we were leaving and a 70s Thunderbird in the parking garage we used. Saw an MG and several Corvettes in Manhattan, and a 50s car, can't remember if a Pontiac or Plymouth, parked in Coney Island. Appears to be being used as a daily driver.

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I've been to Manhattan once. Stayed here:

 

Pickwick Arms Hotel

Midtown Manhattan, New York City

 

Hotel Description
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1.5 Points

230 East 51 St. Street, New York, NY 10022 USA


 

Pickwick Arms Hotel, Midtown Manhattan, New York City  Reservation  
   

The Pickwick Arms Hotel is located in the center of the action in New York, on 51st St. between second and third avenues.

Pickwick Arms is within walking distance to Rockefeller Center, St. Patrick's, Saks, Madison Avenue shops, Empire State building and fine dining restaurants.

Accommodations reflect Euro style rooms with shared baths.

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17 hours ago, Gunsmoke said:

I can't remember the last time I saw a $60,000 Crew cab pickup go by with more than one person in it, and with anything in the bed except a tonneau cover!!

 

That's like saying, I see cops carrying firearms, but they never use them. These cops don't need to carry a gun!! Some of us use our trucks quite often. For my purposes, a car would be absolutely useless.

 

EV trucks commanding the market in 10 years?? That's highly doubtful. Musk pulled that tug-of-war stunt with the Ford pickup, Ford should run an ad showing Musk's "wind it up and go" truck pulling a 8,000 pound boat and dead on the side of the road less than a hundred miles. Now I'll make a prediction, the EV truck is going to flop for 95% of the country. They might be used in local city deliveries or some other specific superficial service, but the core of the pickup market will remain I/C powered. And feel free to quote me on that.

-Ron

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ALBs and Blimpmobiles are popular here particularly for small people. I have always preferred small overpowered cars because they are easier to park and the AC cools faster.

 

When an EV has a 500 mile range at 70+ with AC going it may catch on.

 

I'd call thast a "pent roof", the paint just makes it look sorta triangular.

 

This is a triangle:

 

 

 

tr7.jpg

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It doesn't appear in that "tug of war" that things were done quite right.  IT looks like the ford was being pulled backwards before the wheels started to spin.  Also appears to be a 2 wheel drive truck.  As mentioned on posts , on those videos that the ford didn't have a chance as the Tesla broke it's traction loose before it even tried to pull.  No different than having the opposing team already leaning forward in a tug of war battle in humans. Now if you put it up against a 4 wheel drive diesel that would be more comparable but again,  not even the same as the torque curves are different where the diesel doesn't even start to come in until above 1500 rpm Approximately especially accounting for the turbo which really has no boost until it starts to come in at 1500 RPM.  Atleast on my truck.  The new ones are a bit different.  

Guys mentioned it would be a better comp to place them both on pulling sleds and see where they come in.  

Also it would be a better comp once you have 100KMI on it of use to see how it holds up overall.  

As one guy mentioned to you are heading out in the while or off to the lake with most of the toys you would be pulling behind it, so it might be tough to find a charging post out in the wilderness. 

Lots of miles to be traveled before it will convince many it's a real player.  Give it 10 years in the North Country cold salty winters plowing and then we'll see how it compares. 

 

If there were the subsidies in place the EV's have for Cord in 1936,  hell we might all have a Cord in the driveway.  It was revolutionary for the time just didn't have someone holding the companies hand to fix all the issues. 

Probably the same for many car manufactures that failed,  that had to rely on the market to prove wether their product would make it prime time,  not outside factors helping to cushion pricing and popularity. 

 

I will say a $100 fully refundable deposit for a 100G probably plus truck is a joke.  I can bet alot of those orders won't pan out.  Put a 2500 deposit on it and that might change those pre order numbers drastically.   You need real flesh in the game to be taken seriously. 

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It's not "cheating", different tests evaluate different things.  Tesla marketing choose the one that showed their advantage, a square torque curve.

The other tests would show other things.

You don't see any truck company doing a slalom against a sports car as a demo, after all.

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13 minutes ago, auburnseeker said:

 $100 fully refundable deposit for a 100G probably plus truck is a joke.  I can bet alot of those orders won't pan out.  Put a 2500 deposit on it and that might change those pre order numbers drastically.   You need real flesh in the game to be taken seriously. 

 

 

Bingo ! This stunt is a perfect snapshot of his circus act, one can almost hear the carny as he speaks  "STEP RIGHT UP" ….

 

Let's wait and see how those orders pan out around the time the truck hits the market in late 2021 and 2022. By then, and with two years behind us, it will give us all a sense of the progress and demand but even then, I doubt it proves much as most of it will be conflated as we all know having been to the circus a time or two...

 

I'm all for advancement, improvement and ingenuity for the good of humanity and environment but it's hard to take some of these types of PR things seriously - the tug of war was laughable and I'm not even a Ford guy...  

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In the interest of facts and clarity, the announced prices were $39,900 to $69,900 not $100k as stated in a recent post.  Seems in line with current truck pricing. Not everyone needs any kind of truck regardless of how it’s powered. You buy what fits your needs.  I have a grossly overpriced wheelchair accessible Dodge Caravan.  It’s what I need so I have to pay the price.

 

Now back to our regularly scheduled program where discussion of people actually buying electric vehicles indicates the world is going to end any day now.  

 

 

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AS, light trucks have a more lax CAFE target than passenger cars.  So you as the buyer are not subsidized, but the manufacturer is.  The car companies that make most of their money on trucks lobbied hard for this.  The engineering and materials efforts and costs to bring a light truck to a passenger car CAFE are very significant.

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4 hours ago, padgett said:

ALBs and Blimpmobiles are popular here particularly for small people. I have always preferred small overpowered cars because they are easier to park and the AC cools faster.

 

Mr P translation please???? Seriously I have no idea what a ALB or a Blimpmobile is. The key word to your statement is the word "here" These vehicles have a nitch market in certain areas of the country mainly urban and especially on the commercial level. I do know from when I worked how much time was lost (non-billable hours) getting fuel and service the vehicles for our fleet. I know for a fact I would have recommended to the contractor I had worked for that he purchase some for the light duty service fleet to see how they worked out and create a cost data analysis to see if there were any advantages. I also know he would have listened to me and done so.  

 

How many of the white Amazon Vans do we see every day making local delivery's every day? 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Locomobile said:

EV trucks commanding the market in 10 years?? That's highly doubtful.

 

Ron, I only hope that many of us are here in 10 years to say "I told you so!" 

 

I think it would be safe to say that the similar statement was made over 120 years years when automobiles were just starting out replacing animals pulling carts. It would be safe to say there were many people back then arguing that nothing would replace the horse and ox carts.  The driving force to that was for commercial use. The bigger cities had major problems with horse drawn vehicles making delivery's. They city of New York had to remove 3-4 million pounds of manure a day and 15,000 dead animals left dead per year on the streets. Spreading insect born diseases in growing densely populated areas. As the population grew so did the need for goods and services, and the number of animals required to perform the task   (that statistic is from page 17 the book Fins Harley Earl the rise of General Motors and the glory days of Detroit authored by William Knoedelseder, 2018 Harper Collins).

 

3 hours ago, auburnseeker said:

If there were the subsidies in place the EV's have for Cord in 1936,  hell we might all have a Cord in the driveway.  It was revolutionary for the time just didn't have someone holding the companies hand to fix all the issues. 

Probably the same for many car manufactures that failed,  that had to rely on the market to prove wether their product would make it prime time,  not outside factors helping to cushion pricing and popularity. 

 

I will say a $100 fully refundable deposit for a 100G probably plus truck is a joke.  I can bet alot of those orders won't pan out.  Put a 2500 deposit on it and that might change those pre order numbers drastically.   You need real flesh in the game to be taken seriously. 

    

We all forget that the one of the greatest technological accomplishments done with government subsides with private research was the lunar landing, without those subsides it most likely would never had happened. Just look at the technology in battery life in the last five years. A subsidy to promote technology and bailing out a failing company are two very different things.

 

It is nice to think we can predict the future, I just want predict the lottery numbers. There are a lot of things in this world we all can say "it won't in 10 years" and we were wrong. When I first saw my son's text messaging I thought that was a dumb idea and would not be around, now when I am stopped at a traffic light and look around at the other vehicles everyone's texting somebody about something that is more important then driving their car.

 

I bought a new Yukon in 2002 (give or take) and I got a $2500 discount because it was able to use E/85.  Never seen a station that sold E/85 the entire time I owned the vehicle. That was a government subsidy as well

 

   

Edited by John348 (see edit history)
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1 hour ago, bryankazmer said:

AS, light trucks have a more lax CAFE target than passenger cars.  So you as the buyer are not subsidized, but the manufacturer is.  The car companies that make most of their money on trucks lobbied hard for this.  The engineering and materials efforts and costs to bring a light truck to a passenger car CAFE are very significant.

That is not a subsidy, it's physics.
Or; why doesn't a Mercedes S600 get 31/40 MPG like a corolla does; they're both cars.

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Ethanol in fuel used in internal combustion engines is a taxpayer funded subsidy to the corn farmers, it ensures they get top money for their crop regardless of the market conditions.  If you buy fuel with ethanol added you are contributing to and participating in a government program that has been instrumental in hurting smaller refineries and impacting supplier competition in the marketplace.  ICE gasoline user = government subsidies user.  

 

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I heard a good analogy the other day:


What if, every time you had to charge your cell phone, you had to take it to a store and have them charge it for you? Even if it only took a few minutes--would you do it?

 

That's the gas station vs. charging an electric car. Sure, the gas station is on the way home and it only takes a few minutes; nevertheless you've simply gotten used to the inconvenience because that's how it is and how it always has been in your lifetime. It certainly isn't an advantage. Charging your cell phone at home or at the office with no extra effort sure is nice, isn't it?

 

Ultimately, little things like that are what will make electric cars palatable to a majority of the motoring public. Yes, yes, yes, I know your daily commute is 750 miles each way and you have to haul 13,000 pounds of gear with you everywhere you go and there might be a flood that chases you 1200 miles inland so you need that gas/diesel vehicle just in case everything goes to hell when the zombies come for your family. But for most people who commute 20 miles a day in urban areas (average commute is about 19.7 miles/day) and who just use their cars for getting around locally, electric vehicles will not be a hardship and might even be a boon to quality of life (I'd sure like fewer guys with loud exhaust hammering past my house, for example). Fuel-powered vehicles will never vanish and for those of you who swallow the BS on TV, I am also here to tell you that there is no political party that wants to take your oil-burning car any more than they want to take the guns that kill schools full of children. That ship has sailed. No matter what the scaremongers on TV tell you and how desperately you want to believe that there are people who really are that unreasonable and narrow-minded, nobody will ever FORCE you to use an electric car. Nobody will force your children to use an electric car. Nobody's going to outlaw anything in the United States. As long as there's oil in the ground, someone will sell gasoline and someone else will build a machine that burns it and you'll be able to buy it. Eventually, opinions will change and economics will alter behavior, just as it did when the guys riding horses thought the guys driving one-cylinder putt-putt cars were fools. Add in fewer moving parts, improved reliability, easier maintenance, simpler operation, and other advantages, and eventually electric cars will seem a lot more reasonable than they do today (insert but... but... but battery replacement! here).

 

I'm sad to say all this will happen without worrying about whether you like it. That's what the future does. I know plenty of old people who don't use the internet and think it's stupid and useless. I know plenty of old people who don't have cell phones and think they're stupid and useless. I remember plenty of people in the '70s who thought microwave ovens were stupid and useless. There were people who thought television was a stupid and useless fad. Or rock-n-roll music. Bill Gates once postulated that there was just no possible reason why any person would ever need more than 20 megabytes of memory in their personal computer. I'm pretty certain there were even people who, at the time, didn't understand why we should have toilets inside the house.

 

They're all relegated to the dustbin of history and the world moved on without them and didn't give it a second thought. Just as it always will.


The problems with electric car infrastructure and range will be solved in time in some way we probably don't even have yet (I've heard recent talk of inductive charging built into major highways as a proposal for long-distance range issues, particularly for trucks). Will all the problems with electric vehicles be solved and will electric vehicles solve all the problems? Of course not, don't be stupid. But making perfect the enemy of good is why we're in this mess in the first place.

 

 

Edited by Matt Harwood (see edit history)
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Well said Matt!  The old saying from my previous employment in TV was “I’ll buy a color TV when they perfect it”. Those people are still waiting. At one time we seemed to be entertained by a glimpse of the future, back when Popular Science and Popular Mechanics were our go to source for information.  Now we are polarized by people on TV who present information for the sake of ratings. 

 

 

Edited by TerryB (see edit history)
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Well put, Matt.  Consider how long a car engine initially went before needing a rebuild.  You had to rebuild the entire engine!  Sorta like battery replacement.  Battery technology and charging infrastructure are still the weaknesses of electric car technology, but have certainly improved a lot.  Power/weight, at least on full charge, is now fairly competitive.  Hybrid solves most of the range and charge issues, but at a cost since you have essentially two systems.  I often drive 300+ miles in a day, so it's not for me yet, but it's not just EV1 and Prius econocars anymore.

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2 hours ago, TerryB said:

Ethanol in fuel used in internal combustion engines is a taxpayer funded subsidy to the corn farmers, it ensures they get top money for their crop regardless of the market conditions.  If you buy fuel with ethanol added you are contributing to and participating in a government program that has been instrumental in hurting smaller refineries and impacting supplier competition in the marketplace.  ICE gasoline user = government subsidies user.  

 

I steer clear of the ethanol crap on everything I own.  Old cars newer cars and every piece of equipment I own.  Fortunately I have 3 stations that sell it in less than a miles drive from the house. 

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46 minutes ago, auburnseeker said:

I steer clear of the ethanol crap on everything I own.  Old cars newer cars and every piece of equipment I own.  Fortunately I have 3 stations that sell it in less than a miles drive from the house. 

Only 1 station in a ten mile radius has non ethanol where I live.  Newer trend locally is the E-15 option.

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Lego has their own version.

 

Lego mocks Tesla over Elon Musk's embarrassing Cybertruck reveal with their own 'guaranteed shatterproof' vehicle

  • Lego posted an image of their own version of a shatterproof truck on Monday 
  • The toy company's post is the latest in a series of memes to mock Tesla
  • Tesla's lead designer managed to shatter the Cybertruck's 'indestructible' glass

image.png.ac1f9fe5f538e29508d46fdc0a84edc4.png

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To take the cell phone analogy one step further, what if when driving on certain roads you had inductive charging ?

 

"You don't see any truck company doing a slalom against a sports car as a demo, after all." ever hear of the Moose test ? Some interesting videos of all kinds of vehicles.

 

The only fair tug of war would be with a steam engine. It also develops max torque at zero rpm.

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5 hours ago, Matt Harwood said:

I remember plenty of people... who thought...

... that New Coke was pointless, a McDLT answered nobody's request, that the Amazon FirePhone was an uncompetitive dud, Premier Smokeless cigarette was simply awful and that Google Glasses were flat out ridiculous. That future happened too, despite massive hype & billions invested to bring them (and 1000's of other products) to market. 

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As I was slaving away at some home renos today it dawned on me that about 30 yrs ago I thought what was the point of a cordless drill, then 25 yrs ago I go my first one, battery life was terrible and the whole thing was done and worn out in about 3 or 4 yrs.  My current one just put in 500 floor screws without changing the battery and I just hung a sheet of drywall with no end in sight.  I suspect that EVs will continue to evolve at about that same pace and will find their place eventually as mainly city cars and local delivery trucks, UPS and the like, and will be just one more tool in the vehicle tool box.

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Like anything else the quality of the drill makes a big difference. I have a Ryobi and a Hitachi. Both came with two batteries and all take charges well. Given a choice I buy corded rather than cordless (why there is an outlet every eight feet (or less) in my working garage also have 240)

 

Of course we have had battery radios since 1924 (anyone remember the Eveready 9/90 volt batteries ? Have also had K-Mart and JC Penny "lifetime" batteries. but have not been available for a while, now I buy only AGMs.

 

Is nice that my Black Friday shopping is done and I never left home. Now for Cyber Monday.

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57 minutes ago, padgett said:

Like anything else the quality of the drill makes a big difference. I have a Ryobi and a Hitachi. Both came with two batteries and all take charges well. Given a choice I buy corded rather than cordless (why there is an outlet every eight feet (or less) in my working garage also have 240)

 

Of course we have had battery radios since 1924 (anyone remember the Eveready 9/90 volt batteries ? Have also had K-Mart and JC Penny "lifetime" batteries. but have not been available for a while, now I buy only AGMs.

 

Is nice that my Black Friday shopping is done and I never left home. Now for Cyber Monday.

 

10 years ago regardless of the make the battery technology in cordless tool was only for home owners, and for the most part you could stop the drill with you bare hand.  They could not last for the full demand of an 8 hour work environment. Now no problem the battery operated tools run at full strength for most of the day.

In 10 more years I wonder where the technology will take it. Who would ever think that you could leave your cell phone on the console of your vehicle and it will charge with no cord plugged in 

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23 hours ago, John348 said:

it would be safe to say that the similar statement was made over 120 years years when automobiles were just starting out replacing animals pulling carts. It would be safe to say there were many people back then arguing that nothing would replace the horse and ox carts. 

 

That's not really the same thing, that was a fundamental change in travel, EV's are just a different type of propulsion, old tech in a different wrapper with few improvements. 120 years ago, they introduced electric cars, nobody wanted them. Steam power lost out to the I/C as well as battery power.

 

-Ron

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1 hour ago, John348 said:

Now no problem the battery operated tools run at full strength for most of the day.

 

We use cordless drills a lot and have for about 20 years, mostly for tapping small holes in aluminum and driving small machines screws, the drills will last one or two hours doing this. Even the latest and greatest Dewalt 18volt brushless 1/2" drill won't last all day. We use them because they have much lower torque and are less likely to snap a stalled tap. We also have Milwaukee hole guns, those drills have an enormous amount of torque.  They supply two batteries for a reason. Maybe Musk should do that.

 

-Ron

21 hours ago, Matt Harwood said:

I'm sad to say all this will happen without worrying about whether you like it.

 

Sadly, you're probably right. But remember this, it has nothing to do with "climate change" hoopla and the ecology, it's about economy, their idea of it,  not yours. This is all about tighter control of the masses, fewer freedoms and higher taxes to pay for their social engineering plans. Oh they will still let us drive our big gas guzzlers, but we are going to pay dearly for the freedom to do so. Folks advocating this have no idea what their fighting for, "Californication".

 

-Ron

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1 hour ago, Locomobile said:

 

That's not really the same thing, that was a fundamental change in travel, EV's are just a different type of propulsion, old tech in a different wrapper with few improvements. 120 years ago, they introduced electric cars, nobody wanted them. Steam power lost out to the I/C as well as battery power.

 

-Ron

 

Ron, 

That was a matter of practicality. Electricity lost out because the infrastructure was not ready for it, electricity was far from available everywhere, steam was complicated and required some sort of engineering skills to operate. 

 

44 minutes ago, Locomobile said:

 

We use cordless drills a lot and have for about 20 years, mostly for tapping small holes in aluminum and driving small machines screws, the drills will last one or two hours doing this. Even the latest and greatest Dewalt 18volt brushless 1/2" drill won't last all day. We use them because they have much lower torque and are less likely to snap a stalled tap. We also have Milwaukee hole guns, those drills have an enormous amount of torque.  They supply two batteries for a reason. Maybe Musk should do that.

 

-Ron

 

Ron,

I retired as a supervisor from one the larger electrical contractors in NYC, I had seen the evolution of battery operated tools under heavy commercial use, our use was different then the one you described. My observation was that they lasted all day, and required less service, we only ordered Milwaukee tools, so I can only speak from my experience.

 

49 minutes ago, Locomobile said:

 

Sadly, you're probably right. But remember this, it has nothing to do with "climate change" hoopla and the ecology, it's about economy, their idea of it,  not yours. This is all about tighter control of the masses, fewer freedoms and higher taxes to pay for their social engineering plans. Oh they will still let us drive our big gas guzzlers, but we are going to pay dearly for the freedom to do so. Folks advocating this have no idea what their fighting for, "Californication".

 

-Ron

 

Ron,

you got to lighten up

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In California you can pay extra for "green" energy, electricity. That means you will be able to claim your electricity comes from hydro dams, geothermal plants, wind farms and other zero-carbon sources. Then others like myself who pay a lower rate have our power coming from the nuclear power plant, and natural gas fired generating plants, and etc less than green sources. Now does that really make sense? All power supply sources feed the same grid and effectively mix together to become indistinguishable. If you live next door to me and pay extra should you really claim moral superiority because you have a better power source than I?

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53 minutes ago, John348 said:

Electricity lost out because the infrastructure was not ready for it, electricity was far from available everywhere

 

You're going back too far, electricity at that time i.e. 1900 was far more readily available than gasoline. There were no gasoline stations, gasoline was only sold in general stores as spot remover, hair straightener etc. Refineries burned it off to get rid of it as their production items were lubricating oils and kerosene. I have publications from 1908 that warn about the availability of gasoline being uncertain and may not be available at all in the near future.

1 hour ago, John348 said:

steam was complicated and required some sort of engineering skills to operate. 

 

Patent lawsuits and the 1901 Olds killed the steamer, coupled with the long start up times and freezing in the winter. They were much easier to drive than the current I/C rivals at that time, which had very low octane fuel, problematic electrical systems, poor engine designs etc. They shook, they smoked, were noisy.. The implication was made in the literature that even a woman could operate a steamer, the first licensed woman driver in the US, Anne Rainsford French Bush drove a Locomobile.

 

image.thumb.png.0ba99d1ab7a2d2d2b667070124bd61ce.png

 

-Ron

 

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39 minutes ago, mike6024 said:

In California you can pay extra for "green" energy, electricity. That means you will be able to claim your electricity comes from hydro dams, geothermal plants, wind farms and other zero-carbon sources.

 I'm assuming it all comes through the same grid. I'd just tell everyone I'm using that green electric part but refuse to pay for it. :)

 

-Ron

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