Pfeil

Your Future, will you fit?

Recommended Posts

Peter {and Terry} you are probably right, however I fear that the future you see will further divide the haves and the have nots. I just can't imagine the very tech intensive electric car ever being something that lower income users can afford. Either initially or as the vehicles age. I used to be middle class and had to tighten the belt a bit each year even with full time + employment and {except for dabbling in the car hobby} a very basic life style. Now that I have retired I doubt I am even middle class anymore although I might just make it.  But I could not have come close to the cost of any of the EV's even when I was still working . Are most of us going to be public transit users in the future ? I live in a rural/ suburban area of a city with very poor public transportation. Are people in my situation going to go back to bicycles ?

 

Greg in Canada

Edited by 1912Staver (see edit history)
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some people will rather walk than own an electric car. If changing a light bulb is the limit of your electrical understanding dumping over a years income into an electric car is doubtful. The would will never run out of cheap used gas & diesel vehicles in the next 25 years, if they do no big deal, I'll be dead. Bob 

Edited by 1937hd45 (see edit history)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Peter Gariepy said:

As to calling Apple a cult. So It's fair to assume you have an Android phone (Google) and a Windows computers (Microsoft)?  Speaking of cults.

 

Neither is my first choice, but there aren't a lot of mainstream alternatives. I primarily work Gov't aerospace programs, and they require documents to be prepared and submitted in MS Office format. As a result, I'm stuck with that. Android phone because I don't want to have to purchase all new chargers and peripherals every time I get a new phone. And yes, I can still replace the battery.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Greg, I am more in your income bracket than you realize.  I will never own an electric car, at best I might have an electric powered wheelchair as I’m approaching my 67th birthday and I still push my manual wheelchair (spinal cord injury six years ago in a mc vs auto encounter).  The changes in auto power systems will be a slow change.  Most autos are becoming an appliance, not an item of desire.  Blame traffic jams, pollution and the general lack of caring about how autos mechanically function in today’s world.  As long as it gets me there with minimal schedule interruptions becomes paramount to buyers.

 

I like and enjoy cars, motorcycles and most anything with an engine.  All around me are nice people who really don’t care about things like that until theirs doesn’t work.  Hoods are never opened on Saturday afternoons with shade tree mechanics becoming  a dying breed.  Still, those who do enjoy history will continue to be impressed by what came before them, be it cars motorcycles or computers. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the vision of the auto manufacturer I retired from after 34 years of service. I'm sure that every auto manufacturer's vision is nearly the same as this one. The only problem for antique vehicles is fuel, parts, interest and the willingness to let antiques be on the road.

 

The future that XXXXXXXX envisions is the Zero-Emission society with a symbiosis of people and rich nature.
With EVs being an integral part of people's lifestyle, everyone will be enjoying the life with no air pollutions or noise problems.
Since vehicles, homes and infrastructure will be interlinked, there will be less traffic congestion thanks to the IT driving support feature, and the charging can be finished while shopping or watching movies because the charging stations will be available at so many places.
Today's impossible may become tomorrow's routine in the Zero-Emission society that XXXXXXXXXX envisions. That tomorrow is already within reach - before too long your EV might be charged while it runs on the EV-dedicated lanes, or you might be able to get into a shopping mall with driving EV thanks to Zero-Emission.
By offering electric vehicles in its attempt to build the Zero-Emission society, XXXXXXXXXX wishes to enrich people's life and protect the blue planet as clean as it is supposed to be for our next generations.

Edited by Pfeil (see edit history)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:

Are people in my situation going to go back to bicycles ?

 

You can buy electric assist bicycles now if you have to go back to bikes. :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Ronnie said:

 

You can buy electric assist bicycles now if you have to go back to bikes. :)

I have a neighbor who has one for himself and one for his wife, they love them!  Goes all over the place with them.  Both bikes still have pedals too so at first glance they look like standard bicycles.

Edited by TerryB (see edit history)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Elon Musk is a genius if only because he was the FIRST person in 120 years that figured out how to build an electric car that wasn't an embarrassment to be caught dead in. 

 

 

Edited by alsancle (see edit history)
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder how much the range of electric vehicles is cut in cold temps. We lived 25 miles south of Syracuse and saw over 25 days one year where the temperature never hit -0- degrees and two weeks where every night was 20 below or colder - two nights hit 40 below and one 36 below......

 

Also not sure how autonomous vehicles are going to navigate when the roads are covered 6 inches or better (drifts to 12 inches) and that's within an hour after they are plowed when the only markers along the road are phone poles on each side..... it will be interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, vermontboy said:

I wonder how much the range of electric vehicles is cut in cold temps. We lived 25 miles south of Syracuse and saw over 25 days one year where the temperature never hit -0- degrees and two weeks where every night was 20 below or colder - two nights hit 40 below and one 36 below......

 

1905: I wonder what the range of those "oto-mobiles" are? Gasoline? What the heck is that? I have to get it at some special store? That's nuts. I can just get on my horse and go as far as I want and I don't even have to worry about finding "gasoline." And grass and water are free! Why would I pay for transportation? Imagine running out of gas somewhere in the middle of nowhere? What idiots! Why should I try anything new when the horse works just fine for all our needs? I doubt the world will ever change, why should I bother? 

 

Yeah, I think I'm just going to stick with my horse. No way those idiots and their strange newfangled oto-mobiles will ever know more than I.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those of us who have traveled the world by airplane and think nothing of that feat, remember the first flight only lasted less tha a minute.  It’s called progress!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was at a supercharger spot today on RT 95 in South Carolina, 12 chargers, and no cars for over an hour.......just saying.

 

I think there is and will be lots of room for a electric car........in twenty five years they will probably be 75 percent of the market. That still leaves 25 percent for HC’s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the best news regarding the widespread adoption of electric cars is... more gas for our old cars!

 

Plus, as a side benefit, it will be CHEAP!


What's the downside?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, I really do have an electric car, in fact two of them.

 

FEDD8172-85AC-4971-9831-DAF244DE7112.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Matt Harwood said:

And the best news regarding the widespread adoption of electric cars is... more gas for our old cars!

 

Plus, as a side benefit, it will be CHEAP!


What's the downside?

The down side is fewer gasoline cars after the EV's have taken the market over. Less demand for gasoline equals higher gas prices. Just look at the price of paint thinner' lighter fluid' kerosene, regular 87octaine ethanol free gas compared to 87 10% ethanol. 

    

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Pfeil said:

The down side is fewer gasoline cars after the EV's have taken the market over. Less demand for gasoline equals higher gas prices. Just look at the price of paint thinner' lighter fluid' kerosene, regular 87octaine ethanol free gas compared to 87 10% ethanol. 

    

 

Um, no. That's not how supply and demand works. In fact, that's the exact opposite of how it works. Scarcity drives up prices as buyers compete to control finite resources. A surplus supply, or reduced demand for any given item, deflates prices as sellers lower prices to entice buyers to purchase goods that are in excess supply. It has been that way since the first guy had something that two other guys wanted.

 

Example: A lot fewer people want Model Ts today than in the 1960s. By your theory, since fewer people want them prices should be going up. Obviously that is not the case. The market is not flooded with $100,000 Model Ts that nobody wants.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Matt Harwood said:

 

Um, no. That's not how supply and demand works. In fact, that's the exact opposite of how it works. Scarcity drives up prices as buyers compete to control finite resources. A surplus supply, or reduced demand for any given item, deflates prices as sellers lower prices to entice buyers to purchase goods that are in excess supply. It has been that way since the first guy had something that two other guys wanted.

 

Example: A lot fewer people want Model Ts today than in the 1960s. By your theory, since fewer people want them prices should be going up. Obviously that is not the case. The market is not flooded with $100,000 Model Ts that nobody wants.

When refiners cut down production of gas because of so few cars using it because of EV's the price will rise because they will not be selling in the volume they once had. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem that I have with this entire discussion is that it is based on someone's idea of what the future holds. The person(s) who authored the original statement are anonymous. I would guess that is because they would prefer not to be embarassed when a lot of their "facts' turn out to be wrong. I am convinced that some of what they have predicted is fairly correct. Much of it is just as likely to be wrong. Whenever a projected version of the future is presented in as the only potential future in a religious like manner, I tend to be skeptical.

 

Change is always happening. Predictions are always being made. Sometimes they are close, sometimes they are really good, and sometimes the predictions are way off base. There are such regional differences between urban, suburban, and rural areas that any one cookie cutter prediction of "the future" is unlikely to be universally correct. There are also differences due to weather differences. In my area, we have to be prepared for Hurricanes. We almost never have to worry about snow. There are some places that have Tornadoes as a major regular concern. I have seen significant tornadoes within 100 miles of my location only twice in my life. We have plenty of local stations with ethanol free fuel. We have very few electric car charging stations locally. I am sure that electric cars will continue to become more common but it will be a long time before they are a significant presence in my area. 

 

I am not going to spend any time worrying about these predictions. The weather is projected to be Sunny and almost 60 tomorrow. Saturday, it is projected to be in the 60's and Sunny. I can live with those projections. I will be smiling when i drive my 1937 Buick Century to our local Cars and Coffe on Saturday. The weather will be great, the crowds will be large, including a lot of the younger generation, so I plan to just continue enjoying the hobby!  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, MCHinson said:

The problem that I have with this entire discussion is that it is based on someone's idea of what the future holds. The person(s) who authored the original statement are anonymous. I would guess that is because they would prefer not to be embarassed when a lot of their "facts' turn out to be wrong. I am convinced that some of what they have predicted is fairly correct. Much of it is just as likely to be wrong. Whenever a projected version of the future is presented in as the only potential future in a religious like manner, I tend to be skeptical.

 

Change is always happening. Predictions are always being made. Sometimes they are close, sometimes they are really good, and sometimes the predictions are way off base. There are such regional differences between urban, suburban, and rural areas that any one cookie cutter prediction of "the future" is unlikely to be universally correct. There are also differences due to weather differences. In my area, we have to be prepared for Hurricanes. We almost never have to worry about snow. There are some places that have Tornadoes as a major regular concern. I have seen significant tornadoes within 100 miles of my location only twice in my life. We have plenty of local stations with ethanol free fuel. We have very few electric car charging stations locally. I am sure that electric cars will continue to become more common but it will be a long time before they are a significant presence in my area. 

 

I am not going to spend any time worrying about these predictions. The weather is projected to be Sunny and almost 60 tomorrow. Saturday, it is projected to be in the 60's and Sunny. I can live with those projections. I will be smiling when i drive my 1937 Buick Century to our local Cars and Coffe on Saturday. The weather will be great, the crowds will be large, including a lot of the younger generation, so I plan to just continue enjoying the hobby!  

EV's are where the automotive industry is going. It's a huge part of their product planning and billions are being spent. With the exception of a few years out the internal combustion final planning is being done. We as collectors must have assurance that the resources we need will still be in adequate supply, that is fuel, oil, parts, and permission to run on the roads. If you don't worry, if you don't become the squeaky wheel to let people know your position the hobby will go away. Also there are plenty of squeaky wheels out there to get these cars off the HWY too. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TerryB said:

For those of us who have traveled the world by airplane and think nothing of that feat, remember the first flight only lasted less tha a minute.  It’s called progress!

Yes, It is a shame Gustave Whitehead didn't have a photographer back in 1901 to prove it, something the Wright brothers thought of in 1903. Bob 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your original post claims:

 

 11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.   
 Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.  

 

Even though the following article was written by someone who hopes that would be true, even they clearly show that your original post is wrong.

 

https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/10/where-americas-charge-towards-electric-vehicles-stands-today/572857/

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Harley Davidson is about to start marketing their new Electric Motor Cycle costing $30,000.

 

If all the cars go electric I'm going to put a Disc Recording of a big block Chevy with Headers and no mufflers that I can listen to while driving. 

 

Robots and Computers will be the end of the Human Race.

 

If these changes evolve a Third World Country with launch a Nuclear Arial Bomb attack over us and the IMF wave from the explosion will kill all the Electronics every where.

I might have to replace the Pertronics in my Distributors and put the Points back in to give everybody a ride in my old cars. 

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Doug Novak said:

Harley Davidson is about to start marketing their new Electric Motor Cycle costing $30,000.

 

If all the cars go electric I'm going to put a Disc Recording of a big block Chevy with Headers and no mufflers that I can listen to while driving. 

 

Robots and Computers will be the end of the Human Race.

 

If these changes evolve a Third World Country with launch a Nuclear Arial Bomb attack over us and the IMF wave from the explosion will kill all the Electronics every where.

I might have to replace the Pertronics in my Distributors and put the Points back in to give everybody a ride in my old cars. 

 

 

Just keep the points and condenser in the glove box. I can't tell you how many drivers find themselves stranded. I said to a friend who's 64, 409 Impala SS went dead on the HYW " What did you do with the Pertronic's ?" He said he had by chance saved the points and condenser and he threw the pertronic's as far as he could from the side of the road.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why auto sales have declined is still a bit of a mystery to me. Trucks , S.U.V.'s and those things in between strike me as a very expensive transportation choice. I had a reasonably long commute until I retired and would have found the transport monthly cost with anything other than a small gas sipper a real hardship. How has California made trucks more popular ?  

P.S.  I have a older Ford Pick up that I put temp. insurance on when I need to haul something large or use my tandem car trailer.  But I can't imagine using it as a daily driver.

 

Greg

Edited by 1912Staver (see edit history)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now