Pfeil

Your Future, will you fit?

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Billions  of tons of freight and millions of passengers are transported every year via electric trains. Far more viable than no range semis. E L Cord. The money is in the stock run up. Yes Tesla is impressive, but they sell the least number of electric cars in Europe. It i far more reaasonable to focus on electric trains, coupled with clean, plentiful nuclear power than on rare earth environmentally distructive concepts.

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4 hours ago, joe_padavano said:

Elon has shipped exactly NO Model 3s at $35K, and never will.  And while they may have done $21B in revenue last year, they LOST $1B doing it.  Also, most analysts are skeptical that Tesla will be able to beat 2018 performance this year, as their short-term production-increasing stunts are not sustainable. I've been in meetings with Elon for SpaceX.  Suffice to say that he's as much of a con artist with an inflated ego as another Twitter user that we know. As for "cult", I'd argue that "selling" half a million Model 3s before a running prototype even existed puts Tucker to shame as far as being a huckster.  And I've seen the C&D article. Who defined the low-end Model 3 as a "luxury car"? Also, as I pointed out above, Mercedes sells nearly as many cars a month as Tesla sold in all of 2018; GM sells about that many cars in a week; and neither lose money doing it. But hey, Tesla has a higher market cap... 🙄

 

Not wanting to be part of a cult is why I don't own any Apple products, either. 😉

 

  • Facts remain:  156,000 Model 3s sold. $31b in revenue.  Yes $1b lost. People don't buy the cars because of a personality... they buy them because they are good cars.
  • Con artist?  I disagree, but let's assume you are right.  Then he's in good company:  Henry Ford, William Durant, Howard Hughs, Bill Gates and Steve Jobs to name a few. 
  • No running prototype?  You're a silly man. 
  • C&D defined "Low End Luxury Car"
  • Mercedes, GM and other manufactures have been around 100+ years.  Tesla has geared up in less than 10, and really 5.
  • Yes, Tesla market cap is nuts
  • As to calling Apple a cult. So It's fair to assume you have an Android phone (Google) and a Windows computers (Microsoft)?  Speaking of cults.
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We are distracted away from the original post:

 

Good or bad, every major car manufacturer in the world is look away from fossil fueled vehicles. They will be history in our lifetimes.

 

Just because we love our antique automobiles will not change that fact.

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The best selling post WWII car prior to Tesla model S was the Citi-Car which sold just under 4500 total units during the gas crisis years in the 1970s.  The cars were bought in reaction to long gas lines and rising prices.  To sell nearly 250,000 electric cars in one year when gas is relatively cheap and plentiful is a statement about shifting views about automobiles and their method of propulsion.  It really doesn’t matter who made the cars, it more matters they sold based on changing customer priorities and interests.  

 

Kind of of like the personal computer market, it’s not critical to know the first makers but their influence on the market and our acceptance of them into our lifestyle is what is noteworthy today.  It all goes back to the opening statement about what changes we will see in the future.  Whatever they are will be a statement of our acceptance to change in our daily lives.

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Peter {and Terry} you are probably right, however I fear that the future you see will further divide the haves and the have nots. I just can't imagine the very tech intensive electric car ever being something that lower income users can afford. Either initially or as the vehicles age. I used to be middle class and had to tighten the belt a bit each year even with full time + employment and {except for dabbling in the car hobby} a very basic life style. Now that I have retired I doubt I am even middle class anymore although I might just make it.  But I could not have come close to the cost of any of the EV's even when I was still working . Are most of us going to be public transit users in the future ? I live in a rural/ suburban area of a city with very poor public transportation. Are people in my situation going to go back to bicycles ?

 

Greg in Canada

Edited by 1912Staver (see edit history)
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Some people will rather walk than own an electric car. If changing a light bulb is the limit of your electrical understanding dumping over a years income into an electric car is doubtful. The would will never run out of cheap used gas & diesel vehicles in the next 25 years, if they do no big deal, I'll be dead. Bob 

Edited by 1937hd45 (see edit history)

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55 minutes ago, Peter Gariepy said:

As to calling Apple a cult. So It's fair to assume you have an Android phone (Google) and a Windows computers (Microsoft)?  Speaking of cults.

 

Neither is my first choice, but there aren't a lot of mainstream alternatives. I primarily work Gov't aerospace programs, and they require documents to be prepared and submitted in MS Office format. As a result, I'm stuck with that. Android phone because I don't want to have to purchase all new chargers and peripherals every time I get a new phone. And yes, I can still replace the battery.

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Greg, I am more in your income bracket than you realize.  I will never own an electric car, at best I might have an electric powered wheelchair as I’m approaching my 67th birthday and I still push my manual wheelchair (spinal cord injury six years ago in a mc vs auto encounter).  The changes in auto power systems will be a slow change.  Most autos are becoming an appliance, not an item of desire.  Blame traffic jams, pollution and the general lack of caring about how autos mechanically function in today’s world.  As long as it gets me there with minimal schedule interruptions becomes paramount to buyers.

 

I like and enjoy cars, motorcycles and most anything with an engine.  All around me are nice people who really don’t care about things like that until theirs doesn’t work.  Hoods are never opened on Saturday afternoons with shade tree mechanics becoming  a dying breed.  Still, those who do enjoy history will continue to be impressed by what came before them, be it cars motorcycles or computers. 

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This is the vision of the auto manufacturer I retired from after 34 years of service. I'm sure that every auto manufacturer's vision is nearly the same as this one. The only problem for antique vehicles is fuel, parts, interest and the willingness to let antiques be on the road.

 

The future that XXXXXXXX envisions is the Zero-Emission society with a symbiosis of people and rich nature.
With EVs being an integral part of people's lifestyle, everyone will be enjoying the life with no air pollutions or noise problems.
Since vehicles, homes and infrastructure will be interlinked, there will be less traffic congestion thanks to the IT driving support feature, and the charging can be finished while shopping or watching movies because the charging stations will be available at so many places.
Today's impossible may become tomorrow's routine in the Zero-Emission society that XXXXXXXXXX envisions. That tomorrow is already within reach - before too long your EV might be charged while it runs on the EV-dedicated lanes, or you might be able to get into a shopping mall with driving EV thanks to Zero-Emission.
By offering electric vehicles in its attempt to build the Zero-Emission society, XXXXXXXXXX wishes to enrich people's life and protect the blue planet as clean as it is supposed to be for our next generations.

Edited by Pfeil (see edit history)

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58 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:

Are people in my situation going to go back to bicycles ?

 

You can buy electric assist bicycles now if you have to go back to bikes. :)

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16 minutes ago, Ronnie said:

 

You can buy electric assist bicycles now if you have to go back to bikes. :)

I have a neighbor who has one for himself and one for his wife, they love them!  Goes all over the place with them.  Both bikes still have pedals too so at first glance they look like standard bicycles.

Edited by TerryB (see edit history)

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Elon Musk is a genius if only because he was the FIRST person in 120 years that figured out how to build an electric car that wasn't an embarrassment to be caught dead in. 

 

 

Edited by alsancle (see edit history)
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I wonder how much the range of electric vehicles is cut in cold temps. We lived 25 miles south of Syracuse and saw over 25 days one year where the temperature never hit -0- degrees and two weeks where every night was 20 below or colder - two nights hit 40 below and one 36 below......

 

Also not sure how autonomous vehicles are going to navigate when the roads are covered 6 inches or better (drifts to 12 inches) and that's within an hour after they are plowed when the only markers along the road are phone poles on each side..... it will be interesting.

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11 minutes ago, vermontboy said:

I wonder how much the range of electric vehicles is cut in cold temps. We lived 25 miles south of Syracuse and saw over 25 days one year where the temperature never hit -0- degrees and two weeks where every night was 20 below or colder - two nights hit 40 below and one 36 below......

 

1905: I wonder what the range of those "oto-mobiles" are? Gasoline? What the heck is that? I have to get it at some special store? That's nuts. I can just get on my horse and go as far as I want and I don't even have to worry about finding "gasoline." And grass and water are free! Why would I pay for transportation? Imagine running out of gas somewhere in the middle of nowhere? What idiots! Why should I try anything new when the horse works just fine for all our needs? I doubt the world will ever change, why should I bother? 

 

Yeah, I think I'm just going to stick with my horse. No way those idiots and their strange newfangled oto-mobiles will ever know more than I.

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For those of us who have traveled the world by airplane and think nothing of that feat, remember the first flight only lasted less tha a minute.  It’s called progress!

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I was at a supercharger spot today on RT 95 in South Carolina, 12 chargers, and no cars for over an hour.......just saying.

 

I think there is and will be lots of room for a electric car........in twenty five years they will probably be 75 percent of the market. That still leaves 25 percent for HC’s.

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And the best news regarding the widespread adoption of electric cars is... more gas for our old cars!

 

Plus, as a side benefit, it will be CHEAP!


What's the downside?

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9 minutes ago, Matt Harwood said:

And the best news regarding the widespread adoption of electric cars is... more gas for our old cars!

 

Plus, as a side benefit, it will be CHEAP!


What's the downside?

The down side is fewer gasoline cars after the EV's have taken the market over. Less demand for gasoline equals higher gas prices. Just look at the price of paint thinner' lighter fluid' kerosene, regular 87octaine ethanol free gas compared to 87 10% ethanol. 

    

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1 minute ago, Pfeil said:

The down side is fewer gasoline cars after the EV's have taken the market over. Less demand for gasoline equals higher gas prices. Just look at the price of paint thinner' lighter fluid' kerosene, regular 87octaine ethanol free gas compared to 87 10% ethanol. 

    

 

Um, no. That's not how supply and demand works. In fact, that's the exact opposite of how it works. Scarcity drives up prices as buyers compete to control finite resources. A surplus supply, or reduced demand for any given item, deflates prices as sellers lower prices to entice buyers to purchase goods that are in excess supply. It has been that way since the first guy had something that two other guys wanted.

 

Example: A lot fewer people want Model Ts today than in the 1960s. By your theory, since fewer people want them prices should be going up. Obviously that is not the case. The market is not flooded with $100,000 Model Ts that nobody wants.

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12 minutes ago, Matt Harwood said:

 

Um, no. That's not how supply and demand works. In fact, that's the exact opposite of how it works. Scarcity drives up prices as buyers compete to control finite resources. A surplus supply, or reduced demand for any given item, deflates prices as sellers lower prices to entice buyers to purchase goods that are in excess supply. It has been that way since the first guy had something that two other guys wanted.

 

Example: A lot fewer people want Model Ts today than in the 1960s. By your theory, since fewer people want them prices should be going up. Obviously that is not the case. The market is not flooded with $100,000 Model Ts that nobody wants.

When refiners cut down production of gas because of so few cars using it because of EV's the price will rise because they will not be selling in the volume they once had. 

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The problem that I have with this entire discussion is that it is based on someone's idea of what the future holds. The person(s) who authored the original statement are anonymous. I would guess that is because they would prefer not to be embarassed when a lot of their "facts' turn out to be wrong. I am convinced that some of what they have predicted is fairly correct. Much of it is just as likely to be wrong. Whenever a projected version of the future is presented in as the only potential future in a religious like manner, I tend to be skeptical.

 

Change is always happening. Predictions are always being made. Sometimes they are close, sometimes they are really good, and sometimes the predictions are way off base. There are such regional differences between urban, suburban, and rural areas that any one cookie cutter prediction of "the future" is unlikely to be universally correct. There are also differences due to weather differences. In my area, we have to be prepared for Hurricanes. We almost never have to worry about snow. There are some places that have Tornadoes as a major regular concern. I have seen significant tornadoes within 100 miles of my location only twice in my life. We have plenty of local stations with ethanol free fuel. We have very few electric car charging stations locally. I am sure that electric cars will continue to become more common but it will be a long time before they are a significant presence in my area. 

 

I am not going to spend any time worrying about these predictions. The weather is projected to be Sunny and almost 60 tomorrow. Saturday, it is projected to be in the 60's and Sunny. I can live with those projections. I will be smiling when i drive my 1937 Buick Century to our local Cars and Coffe on Saturday. The weather will be great, the crowds will be large, including a lot of the younger generation, so I plan to just continue enjoying the hobby!  

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18 minutes ago, MCHinson said:

The problem that I have with this entire discussion is that it is based on someone's idea of what the future holds. The person(s) who authored the original statement are anonymous. I would guess that is because they would prefer not to be embarassed when a lot of their "facts' turn out to be wrong. I am convinced that some of what they have predicted is fairly correct. Much of it is just as likely to be wrong. Whenever a projected version of the future is presented in as the only potential future in a religious like manner, I tend to be skeptical.

 

Change is always happening. Predictions are always being made. Sometimes they are close, sometimes they are really good, and sometimes the predictions are way off base. There are such regional differences between urban, suburban, and rural areas that any one cookie cutter prediction of "the future" is unlikely to be universally correct. There are also differences due to weather differences. In my area, we have to be prepared for Hurricanes. We almost never have to worry about snow. There are some places that have Tornadoes as a major regular concern. I have seen significant tornadoes within 100 miles of my location only twice in my life. We have plenty of local stations with ethanol free fuel. We have very few electric car charging stations locally. I am sure that electric cars will continue to become more common but it will be a long time before they are a significant presence in my area. 

 

I am not going to spend any time worrying about these predictions. The weather is projected to be Sunny and almost 60 tomorrow. Saturday, it is projected to be in the 60's and Sunny. I can live with those projections. I will be smiling when i drive my 1937 Buick Century to our local Cars and Coffe on Saturday. The weather will be great, the crowds will be large, including a lot of the younger generation, so I plan to just continue enjoying the hobby!  

EV's are where the automotive industry is going. It's a huge part of their product planning and billions are being spent. With the exception of a few years out the internal combustion final planning is being done. We as collectors must have assurance that the resources we need will still be in adequate supply, that is fuel, oil, parts, and permission to run on the roads. If you don't worry, if you don't become the squeaky wheel to let people know your position the hobby will go away. Also there are plenty of squeaky wheels out there to get these cars off the HWY too. 

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1 hour ago, TerryB said:

For those of us who have traveled the world by airplane and think nothing of that feat, remember the first flight only lasted less tha a minute.  It’s called progress!

Yes, It is a shame Gustave Whitehead didn't have a photographer back in 1901 to prove it, something the Wright brothers thought of in 1903. Bob 

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