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So Tesla is tanking... your thoughts?


mercer09

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6 minutes ago, charlier said:

 

FYI, Tesla has had a leasing program for at least a  few years now. 

 

tesla-launches-limited-two-year-lease-program This particular program was in 2016. There were other programs before and some since.

 

One has to wonder where their current sales would be without their leasing program.

 

Charlie

 

I could not find any info on their leasing program, interesting.... thanks for the correction, sorry about that.  I think there would be a lot less of all auto's regardless of manufacturer sold without leasing

 

7 minutes ago, 60FlatTop said:

 Dandy. No one in the New York- Long Island area was able to figure out they could take the cap off a fuel tank, put in a pipe with a hand pump at the top, and turn a crank to get fuel. They claimed police and emergency vehicles sat without fuel. Those geniuses whined about it in Albany and the state passed a law requiring ALL the stations to have emergency generators at a pretty hefty expense.

 

 

Actually Bernie, that really was not hard to figure out, but that was not the problem. I don't know where you got that info from about mandatory generators at all stations, maybe for police and fire that would make sense. I have not seen or heard of one generator installed in one gas station since Sandy, nor have I heard of anyone bidding on those jobs.   Power was restored back in the many of the areas with in a day or so. The problem with the fuel supply was the main gasoline depot in NJ got severely damaged with salt water flooding so the existing fuel supply at the stations was exhausted in a day or two.

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about 30% of new cars are leased.. .not 70%. For people who buy new cars every few years leasing saves money in most situations. That's off topic though.

 

 

find that figure totally impossible to believe. Maybe the salesman was lying to me?, everyone I know under the age of 50 leases their cars. Of course most of us older folks on this thread buy. that was what we've always been taught is the best bang for our buck.

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2 hours ago, John348 said:

Hopefully we both will be here to talk in 10 years about how that game plan worked out, I hope for your sake it serves you  perfectly for as long as you need it too, again it all depends where you live and the use of the vehicle. Everybody's situation is different

A 17 year old car in the metro NYC area is pretty hard to find, and is pretty beat up by the time it is 7 years old, combine that with rock salt, salt air, and bad roads pretty much ready for the junk yard, and yes I forgot to mention NYS emission inspections usually get them at the 9 year old point , too expensive to repair. I personally do not want to deal with problems in everyday transportation  so, that is just me.  I move on every 4-5 years now maybe 5-6 years once the warranty is gone so is the car. I never owned a foreign car and never will, and make sure my American car was made in America and by union workers who were payed a livable wage, that is just me and how I was raised  

 

Brings back memory of going to college. Born and raised in Southern Arizona so no rust or corrosion issues to speak of on the "new" family car which was only 7 years old when I flew off to Upstate New York for freshman year. Got of the plane and was astounded to see all those "brand new" (i.e. less than 5 year old) cars with rust showing through and absolutely nothing as old as our "new" family car in the airport parking lot.

 

I live in a coastal area now where salt could be an issue, but I am about 1/4 mile from the beach so the salt content of the morning fog at our house is pretty low and the car stays in the garage when we aren't driving it so I am not expecting salt accelerated corrosion to be a problem. Bad roads can be a problem anywhere but the two older cars seemed to deal with the roads in our area pretty well (original steering and suspension components, etc.) on both at the time of sale for one and the collision for the other.

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The lease percentage is more than double the national average when viewed in the luxury car segment. Northeast corridor and Calif. European import leasing approaches 70% of all new cars sold, Infiniti even higher percentage.

Luxury car plug in hybrid leases are the highest percentage lease/buy. When you lease a car, the buyer (the bank) gets the benefit of the tax credit and passes that on to the leasee (consumer). Hence, and additional 5-6000 discount (depending on state) that is distributed in full thru a 36 month lease ( $166 mo drop in payment courtesy Uncle Sam).

 

Back to Tesla and their future. There's a phenomenon in the tesla market happening right now..very quickly...

Check the Toyota, Mazda, Honda dealerships where the Tesla market is...they  suddenly have an abundance of used Teslas, owners are getting out of them at a very fast clip right now, and obviously not to get into a new one. Something is happening, I don't think it's good...Or at least not good for Tesla. Reminds me of when Saab was about to implode.

Time will tell and I don't think much time. Steve

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2 hours ago, John348 said:

 

I could not find any info on their leasing program, interesting.... thanks for the correction, sorry about that.  I think there would be a lot less of all auto's regardless of manufacturer sold without leasing

 

True there would be less sales of all autos without leasing. IMHO, with Tesla's current model offerings retail pricing lends itself more to leasing than buying.

 

Tesla's current leasing program requires that you create an account on their web site to see leasing information. I did not do that because I do not need more spam emails from someone trying to sell me something. 

 

If you would like to see the current leasing information you can go here and create an account.

 

According to Tesla, leases on the model 3 are not available at this time. They expect to have a leasing program for model 3s in 6-9 months according to Elon Musk.

 

Back on topic. It appears that a perfect storm is hitting Tesla these days is A.) The expiration of the $7,500 tax credit which makes Tesla models more expensive, B.) After more than a year, the Base Model 3 is still not available and lastly C.) It has been reported that 24% of Model 3 orders have been cancelled and Tesla is having to repay all the deposits for the cancelled orders due to a combination of A & B.

 

24% Of Tesla Model 3 Orders have been cancelled.

 

Charlie

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4 hours ago, Bhigdog said:

 

In any "situation" there can be events that put a person in a S.O.L. position. It's just a whole lot easier to plan and deal with contingencies when your vehicle uses common and readily available fuel that is easily stored and quickly put where needed. Not knocking Tesla. Just saying the PITA factor of dealing with the whole thing makes it a non starter for me and my situation........Bob

 

I think the Teslas have 120V onboard chargers as well as the 220V "fast" chargers. A household outlet can be alot handier then a gas station. If we are talking during an outage you could even charge from a generator. In a regular situation I think an outlet is even handier then a gas station. Granted its not as fast as filling up the tank but if your stuck somewhere an outlet and an extension cord might be easier to find than a gas station. Just thinking out loud, thats all.

 

We are going to have to face the fact that electric vehciles will become more popular and common in coming years and thats not a bad thing. The charging stations will become more common and they will come up with a way to charge them faster. Remember that gas was hard to come by in the early days of cars too but when there were finally alot of cars the gas stations came along to support them. As soon as their is demand someone will come up with a way to satisfy it. Arent all you guys fans of the invisible hand of the free market??? Or should the government keep subsidizing the oil companies some more and keep obsolete technology around because people are afraid of change? We are paying tax money to keep coal alive for some stupid reason. Change is coming and its probly a good thing. More gas for our old cars!!!

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Tesla makes really nice cars and they are fast. I've driven several. Tesla has also done a good job integrating large touch screen technology similar to the smart phone industry. The vehicles are not rocket science though and other OEMs could make similar cars. Most car companies are in business to make money and in 15 years Tesla has failed to do that and has used investor money to function. This may be why others haven't followed suite....need to make a profit. Their stock price is all based on hype. I guess I just don't understand Wall Street.

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I sell more Volvos straight cash than I lease. Not as surprisingly when I sold Fords it was fewer leases still (but very few cash deals). Many areas are financially conservative and simply refuse to look at leasing numbers. I have a client who pays cash every two years and wont let me show them how leasing is less money and less risk. Some parts of the country are at 70% for sure. But every number Ive seen past few years and the first hit when I googled it just to check is right around 30% for leasing nationally.

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41 minutes ago, nick8086 said:

What happen to Fisker Karma. cars?

 

https://www.fiskerinc.com/

 

 

I actually saw one of those on the road in the last week. I'd pretty much decided that they were entirely hype and no actual manufacturing so it surprised me.

 

Regarding a number of negative comments about a Tesla (I don't have one): They remind me of a lot of comments about how horrible the hybrid technology was when it first hit the US retail market. Nowadays I've been reading about how the Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars out there and that one of the big issues of the early generations Prius models is that they only designed the odometer to go to 300,000 miles. And you have hybrid technology in practically every manufacturer's line up on everything including SUVs and mini vans.

 

FWIW, I have a plug-in hybrid now and I've discovered that, at least for me, there is a plug-in hybrid equivalent to the EV driver's "range anxiety": I call it "range annoyance". It happens when a trip is just a little too long to make on all electric mode and the gas engine kicks in for the last little bit of the drive. Currently showing a little over 1/2 tank of fuel and its been over 600 miles since I filled up the 11 gallon tank.

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8 hours ago, billorn said:

 

We are going to have to face the fact that electric vehciles will become more popular and common in coming years and thats not a bad thing. The charging stations will become more common and they will come up with a way to charge them faster.

One thing in favor of northern climates, is nearly all apartments, hotels, and other parking lots meant for overnight parking already have electrical outlets in place for engine block heaters. 

 

Craig

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39 minutes ago, 8E45E said:

One thing in favor of northern climates, is nearly all apartments, hotels, and other parking lots meant for overnight parking already have electrical outlets in place for engine block heaters. 

 

Craig

Craig,

EVs require a significantly higher level of ampacity than what you would find in the parking lots you mentioned.  For example, taking a Chevy Bolt from a 20% charge (50 mile range), to a 100% charge (240 mile range) would take about 48 hours on a typical 15 amp/120 v outlet.  Using a DC fast charge only takes an hour to go 20% to 80% and another 30 minutes if you want that last 20% to get to a full charge.

Scott

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3 minutes ago, Stude Light said:

Craig,

EVs require a significantly higher level of ampacity than what you would find in the parking lots you mentioned.  For example, taking a Chevy Bolt from a 20% charge (50 mile range), to a 100% charge (240 mile range) would take about 48 hours on a typical 15 amp/120 v outlet.  Using a DC fast charge only takes an hour to go 20% to 80% and another 30 minutes if you want that last 20% to get to a full charge.

Scott

For overnight guests staying at a hotel, for instance, they would only require the lower voltage slow-charge which already exist in the parking lot; not the higher voltage quick-charge units which would logically be near the front of the building.   Remember, engine block heaters do consume quite a few watts of electricity, therefore those outlets in the parking lot are designed to carry good size electrical load.

 

Craig

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For what it’s worth, and for an excellent contrast of new vs old, there is a free to use Tesla charging station in the parking lot of an antique auto museum located on Rt 39 just north of Hershey PA.  I will not list the name of the museum but most AACA members will know it.

 

Of course, Hershey Park has free to use electric vehicle charging stations too as well as local hotels and shopping centers.

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56 minutes ago, 60FlatTop said:

 

That is not every gas station. in the lower 12 counties of NY, that only comes to a little more than 20 stations per county.  In the outlaying counties of NYC many of the life safety employees, (essential services) reside and were not able to get fuel to commute to work to perform their task. Secondly many of the smaller municipalities do not have their own fuel depot's and contract local stations in the area for fuel. These people could not get to work in the first 48 because there was no power at many stations, when their services were needed the most. 

250 stations in this area of NYS is a very small percentage.

 

Unfortunately, I lived through it and we had power back in most areas in a very short time however there was no gasoline in the tanks and there was no delivery because the main distribution center was down. That was the problem, many of the gas stations had power but ran out of fuel in a few hours.  While in a town with 12 police officers and 4 cars opening the cap and using a hand pump might make sense.

 

Now if they had electric vehicles it would not be much a problem....... Maybe Tesla should begin offering  fleet sales? With a police package, that roadster that they have that goes 250 mph would be an awesome pursuit vehicle and it had 650 miles of range!       

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9 hours ago, capngrog said:

 

A lease is not a sale.

 

Cheers,

Grog


It most certainly is. It leaves ownership of the dealership and moves a production unit for the factory.
 

12 minutes ago, TerryB said:

For what it’s worth, and for an excellent contrast of new vs old, there is a free to use Tesla charging station in the parking lot of an antique auto museum located on Rt 39 just north of Hershey PA.  I will not list the name of the museum but most AACA members will know it.

 

Of course, Hershey Park has free to use electric vehicle charging stations too as well as local hotels and shopping centers.


Tesla gave them to the museum so they are indeed the Tesla charging stations. Every other company uses a standard charging plug but Tesla uses their own. If you buy a Volvo charging station you can charge your BMW or Ford or Nissan. Yes they make conversion plug, but IMO it's simply another really dumb business move by Tesla.

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Auto manufacturers make more cars than we can possibly buy.  But, where would all those jobs go (and not just simply manufacturing jobs, but design, engineering, sales, suppliers, insurance, materials, the list is almost endless) if we actually produced a reasonable amount?  The American obsession with the automobile and the American obsession with what their neighbor has must come to a head at some point. 

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24 minutes ago, Frantz said:


It most certainly is. It leaves ownership of the dealership and moves a production unit for the factory.
 


Tesla gave them to the museum so they are indeed the Tesla charging stations. Every other company uses a standard charging plug but Tesla uses their own. If you buy a Volvo charging station you can charge your BMW or Ford or Nissan. Yes they make conversion plug, but IMO it's simply another really dumb business move by Tesla.

Actually there is no standard for charging plug design , Tesla and others are free to use whatever they want in the US.  Tesla comes with adapters that allow you to use most any form of charger including basic 120v.   In order for Tesla to offer a rapid supercharging station it was necessary for them to design their own plug.  China has established a uniform plug standard and Tesla has modified its charge port to be compatible with it.

 

I worked in TV receiver design during the intro of HDTV.  There were several designs that were competing to be the standard.  It took years of negotiations to finally come to a universal standard and allow that standard to be used worldwide.  I would argue that other manufacturers should have followed Tesla’s design as Tesla is the only manufacturer to actually answer the issue of charging station access and speedy charging stations while introducing its product to the market.  

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19 minutes ago, TerryB said:

Actually there is no standard for charging plug design , Tesla and others are free to use whatever they want in the US.  

Of course they are free to use whatever they want, just everyone else chooses to use the same system and Tesla uses their own. The Apple comparison is fair, and it's a chief complaint about Apple systems, even from those who love them.

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Very interesting post with all the opinions. I work for GM so have a bit of insight into the EVs and AVs. Recall GM did build the EV1s back in the 90s to test the market and the owners really liked them. I thought the Volt was a good idea - EV range for a short commute but no range anxiety since it has an ICE to make electricity to keep going. The Bolt is the long range EV only vehicle that is made for the commuter.

 

Tesla went after a niche market - high end, performance EVs and found a good customer base. They build some nice cars. Building a profitable EV for the masses is a bit more difficult when you compete against ICEs which already has all the infrastructure. In the end, EVs will find a market place, as will AVs but this will all take a lot of time. I live out in farmland and doubt I'll see EVs take over the roads where I live before I die. I'm sure China and some other countries will see a greater number before the US.

 

As far as Tesla the company, I think it's overvalued in the stock market. Their stock value is certainly not based on sound business principles nor return on investment. As mentioned before - lots of investment dollars and hype.

 

I recall seeing that EVs currently are less than 1/10 of 1% of the vehicles on the road today in the US.

 

 

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7 hours ago, 39BuickEight said:

Auto manufacturers make more cars than we can possibly buy.  But, where would all those jobs go (and not just simply manufacturing jobs, but design, engineering, sales, suppliers, insurance, materials, the list is almost endless) if we actually produced a reasonable amount?  The American obsession with the automobile and the American obsession with what their neighbor has must come to a head at some point. 

 

That is not true at all, auto manufacturers make what they sell, I have not seen any surplus of vehicles sitting around, have you?  I really don't understand your comment about the American obsession with their neighbors have, what is going to come to a head?

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3 hours ago, Stude Light said:

Very interesting post with all the opinions. I work for GM so have a bit of insight into the EVs and AVs. Recall GM did build the EV1s back in the 90s to test the market and the owners really liked them. I thought the Volt was a good idea - EV range for a short commute but no range anxiety since it has an ICE to make electricity to keep going. The Bolt is the long range EV only vehicle that is made for the commuter.

 

Tesla went after a niche market - high end, performance EVs and found a good customer base. They build some nice cars. Building a profitable EV for the masses is a bit more difficult when you compete against ICEs which already has all the infrastructure. In the end, EVs will find a market place, as will AVs but this will all take a lot of time. I live out in farmland and doubt I'll see EVs take over the roads where I live before I die. I'm sure China and some other countries will see a greater number before the US.

 

As far as Tesla the company, I think it's overvalued in the stock market. Their stock value is certainly not based on sound business principles nor return on investment. As mentioned before - lots of investment dollars and hype.

 

I recall seeing that EVs currently are less than 1/10 of 1% of the vehicles on the road today in the US.

 

 

My neighbor had one of those EV-1 GM cars. He really liked it and hated to give it back as well. I was pretty young in the 1990s so my big take away was that it beeped when you backed up. But it was a big enough deal in our neighborhood that it stuck in my mind. I didn't grow up as a car guy either but it still made an impression.

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10 hours ago, Frantz said:


It most certainly is. It leaves ownership of the dealership and moves a production unit for the factory.
 


Tesla gave them to the museum so they are indeed the Tesla charging stations. Every other company uses a standard charging plug but Tesla uses their own. If you buy a Volvo charging station you can charge your BMW or Ford or Nissan. Yes they make conversion plug, but IMO it's simply another really dumb business move by Tesla.

 

I remember reading that Tesla was absorbing the cost of the charging stations, and they are free to use (now anyway) I guess they were looking for control of that aspect, I do agree there needs to be some standardization and I am sure that will come down the road.

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The missing point is Tesla is a long distance car, not a 25 or 50 mile range unit.  To charge that large of a battery pack quickly requires a plug design that meets the safety requirements for that level of charging voltage and current and to do that Tesla specified its own plug in the US market.  To copy someone else like Nissan or Toyota would not be worth the effort for what they have to achieve.  In countries that have established a requirement for charging plug design, Teslas are delivered with that configuration as standard.  

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27 minutes ago, TerryB said:

The missing point is Tesla is a long distance car, not a 25 or 50 mile range unit.  To charge that large of a battery pack quickly requires a plug design that meets the safety requirements for that level of charging voltage and current and to do that Tesla specified its own plug in the US market.  To copy someone else like Nissan or Toyota would not be worth the effort for what they have to achieve.  In countries that have established a requirement for charging plug design, Teslas are delivered with that configuration as standard.  

Thanks Terry. I wasn't familiar with that aspect of it.

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On 9/12/2018 at 5:16 PM, John348 said:

NYS emission inspections usually get them at the 9 year old point , too expensive to repair.

 

Funny, just stopped by the garage this morning to get my emissions inspection on my 1998 Park Avenue with 233,000 miles. Passed as usual. Passed every two years since I got it with 165,000 miles  7 years or so ago. No emissions repairs in this time.

 

Here in the emission testing areas of Virginia they just plug OBDII cars into the computer that communicates with Richmond. If 90% of the monitors have run and there are no current trouble codes, it is A-O-K. OBDI cars still get the dynamometer test. The 1995 Park Avenue Ultra passes this one fine too. Does not get driven much, was waiting for it to be AACA age. Just has 105K on it. Passes every two years also. I may have put one O2 sensor in it in this time. 1998 Saturn SW2 with over 200K on it passes every two years also. That has had a coil (and wires)  go bad once to light the light, plus an O2 sensor. We bought this one new.

 

Now if the salt eats the catalytic converter off, that could be a nice repair bill, but certainly not car selling costly! What does NYS test? 

 

Two people on my rural road drive Teslas. Didn't know I lived in such a prosperous area!? Nearest dealer is in Norther Virginia. I have seen the "trouble truck" (pick up and trailer) on US 17 hauling Teslas to NoVA to repair them, or do maintenance. The owners I have talked to really like them. 

 

Europe: Teslas sell well, as it was explained to me back in 2015 that the car tax there is based on emissions. So, a 5 liter Mustang is very costly, but a Tesla has NO TAX! Teslas were used in Taxi  (could have been ride sharing app) service by members of my group getting around. I rented an Opel wagon.?  6 speed diesel.

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I had the opportunity to drive a Tesla. It is really a nice car and whisper quiet.  My daily driver is a C6 Vette. I would say that Tesla would give the Vette a run for it's money.  I can say I would miss the barking (stock) exhaust noise on hard acceleration runs. What is surprising about the Tesla is when you get off the throttle, It slows down automatically.  Personally I hope the Tesla company survives. 

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9 hours ago, Frank DuVal said:

 

Now if the salt eats the catalytic converter off, that could be a nice repair bill, but certainly not car selling costly! What does NYS test? 

 

 

Hey Frank,

it is the plug in test for OBDII but we need to keep in mind not everyone is like us and takes care of their car or makes their own repairs. Combine a trouble code, with tires brakes and suspension the bill to keep the car on the road will be a few grand, so that becomes the end of the line. Plus the slat rots out more than just the convertors. So it becomes a matter of pouring good money into a bad thing when they can lease a brand new car for that same money down that the repair would cost and $250 a month they have a new car for 3 years. 

The bottom line is we need to remember that cars are a product meant to be consumed and disposed of, they just run out of their service life, and only a few survive out of the millions that are produced each year. Cars here in NYC and Boston Metro areas are really driven into the ground. 

 

Just now, Curti said:

I had the opportunity to drive a Tesla. It is really a nice car and whisper quiet.  My daily driver is a C6 Vette. I would say that Tesla would give the Vette a run for it's money.  I can say I would miss the barking (stock) exhaust noise on hard acceleration runs. What is surprising about the Tesla is when you get off the throttle, It slows down automatically.  Personally I hope the Tesla company survives. 

 

Hey Curti,

I agree I did not like the quite factor either, it just did not feel like I had power under my seat. Neil Young had written an autobiography a few years ago besides being a musician, is also a vintage auto enthusiast, and made a statement that if they want the electric cars to take off they need to attract the true car people and it needs to sound and feel more like a performance car if they want it to be successful

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11 minutes ago, Curti said:

I had the opportunity to drive a Tesla. It is really a nice car and whisper quiet.  My daily driver is a C6 Vette. I would say that Tesla would give the Vette a run for it's money.   

They sure will!  Especially in the 'Insane' and 'Ludicrous' mode.

 

Craig

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"Hey Curti,

I agree I did not like the quite factor either, it just did not feel like I had power under my seat. Neil Young had written an autobiography a few years ago besides being a musician, is also a vintage auto enthusiast, and made a statement that if they want the electric cars to take off they need to attract the true car people and it needs to sound and feel more like a performance car if they want it to be successful"

 

A friend in France was shopping for a EV for a business run-about. One he drove had a sound system built in which gave you a choice of exhaust noises as you accelerated. Perfect for the rev-heads among us, though my friend asked the salesman to turn it off. That easy. Cannot remember the make of vehicle, but obviously the execs listen to Neil Young!

 

And in Norway, where the government looks after the folk who drive EV's, Teslas are everywhere. Not unusual to pull up at the lights and have 3 Teslas around you. Not having been exposed to them previously, it took a while to figure out what all of those cars with 'T' on the boot were! And charging stations seemed to be in most car parks. I believe Norway is a bulk exporter of electricity, which no doubt helps.

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