Pre war cars insane prices

[Xander Wildeisen]

 

[1912Staver]

20 minutes ago, MCHinson said:

 

Either you are going to the wrong types of meets or you live in the wrong place. I am under 65 and have owned pre-war cars for over two decades. I have lots of friends who are older and most of them own later antique cars. I know multiple local people younger than me who own pre-war cars here. Maybe you just need to move to the Southeastern United States. To accuse me of "not being honest" based only on the hobbyists you have seen in your particular part of Canada is really a very bad way to try to get people to respond positively to your thoughts. The world is a lot bigger place than you seem to realize. Things are not the same everywhere. 

Actually on this particular point I think the Gent from Quebec may be close to the truth. I have also observed that apart from the "rat Rod" group there is a lot more gray hair within the Pre War ranks than people on the young side of fifty. The trend may have some geographic variation however I don't think by all that much.

 

Greg in Canada

[MCHinson]

4 minutes ago, PreWarQc said:

 

You might be right up to a certain point as in I am willing to believe more young guys own pre 42 cars than I think in other areas, but I am sure they are not numerous enough to make a significant difference on the overall market. And ''not being honest'' was not the way I wanted to phrase that but my english is far from being perfect and I made a mistake in the translation... so I am sorry. I tought it was more on the lines of ''not being realistic'' the way I phrased it but I see my mistake.

 

This is the last post I write and/or read. I came here hoping to have my mind made up to buy a pre war by getting arguments about why these cars will retain a good portion of their value in the long term but instead it seems like it gave me the opposite drive. I think I'll get back in the Air-cooled VW or something like that...

Good luck y'all...

 

My best memory without reading each post and counting them is that the majority of the posts were made by people who have real life experience in the pre-war hobby and tried to convince you that your belief that their value is going to tank substantially at some time in the future and thus make buying one a bad idea is totally wrong. Simply put, real life experience tells me that you are wrong. If you want to own a pre-war car, buy one. If you want to complain about the market, I guess you can complain about the market.  

[MCHinson]

2 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:

Actually on this particular point I think the Gent from Quebec may be close to the truth. I have also observed that apart from the "rat Rod" group there is a lot more gray hair within the Pre War ranks than people on the young side of fifty. The trend may have some geographic variation however I don't think by all that much.

 

Greg in Canada

 

I never said that there are more young people with these cars than older people, but he said that he has never seen anyone under 65 with a pre-war car. I have owned pre-war cars pretty much continually since before I was 37.

[Ben Bruce aka First Born]

Probably a little late, if the OP stays away as he threatened.  But I do not understand WHY folks seem to want to always make money or break even on an old car. It is a hobby, folks. For me, any way.  My brother, an avid fisherman, certainly never made money on his fishing boats. Nor on the new truck to tow same.  Golfers , I'll bet ,don't worry about making money on their clubs and carts. And no one has ever made money on a new car, except the dealer.  So why on an old car?

 

  OP wanting an old car for $5000.00 not thinking clearly.  Someone GIVE one to him. A $500.00 to a $1000.00 car and see if HE would part with it for $5000.00 after HE gets it reliable. Dollar to a donut, answer is NO.

 

  My .02 worth.

 

  Ben

[mcdarrunt]

If ANYONE finds a "needs no work" 30's or 40's car for 5k he won't get it because it will be setting in my shop except for when I'm driving the h!ll out of it.

[PreWarQc]

1 minute ago, Ben Bruce aka First Born said:

Probably a little late, if the OP stays away as he threatened.  But I do not understand WHY folks seem to want to always make money or break even on an old car. It is a hobby, folks. For me, any way.  My brother, an avid fisherman, certainly never made money on his fishing boats. Nor on the new truck to tow same.  Golfers , I'll bet ,don't worry about making money on their clubs and carts. And no one has ever made money on a new car, except the dealer.  So why on an old car?

 

  OP wanting an old car for $5000.00 not thinking clearly.  Someone GIVE one to him. A $500.00 to a $1000.00 car and see if HE would part with it for $5000.00 after HE gets it reliable. Dollar to a donut, answer is NO.

 

  My .02 worth.

 

  Ben

 

Nah... I edited that part, I don't know, I'll keep wandering around a bit more but won't answer to idiotic responses.

Why do you say I wanted a 5000$ car? Where did you read that? I never wrote that and never even wrote that I wanted to buy a car... not here, not now. Do people here really read the posts or they just look at a few words and think they get the gist of it and reply pretty much anything that pop true their head.

My first post(S) clearly show that I'm taking in suggestions from everybody... even if people are a) not answeing my question b) trying to sell me a car I never asked for. After people start to tell me I'm complaining... well... yes, this was the goal of the whole thread... I find the pre war cars expensive in respect to the futur value that will most likely decline a lot and I ask people why this is so? That is all... but people like conflict it seems and I can't help but to defend myself.

 

And if you bought a 500$ or 1000$ and got it reliable it does not matter what you want for it, the only thing that matters is what the market is willing to pay for it. It could be 50k, it could be 500$. And I'm ok with that, my concern is that owners hold on to their cars because they don't get their price (and this is not a problem)... the problem is that in the long term, they will have no choice but to sell (because everybody gets old and or sick) and since most owners are in the same age group, this will pretty much all happen in a short time frame and then the market will get saturated, the old buyers will not be buying and the young guys will not be there to buy... and then, prices drop, a lot.

By that time, I and other guys like me will have moved on to other cars. My guess is that when that happens, a lot of cars will get sold overseas.

Its ok with me if prices are high and stay high... I would buy one in that scenario. But the most likely scenario is that they will be of very little worth in at most 10 years time.

 

[Joe in Canada]

If you wait until the bottom of the market falls out on antique cars what is your plan. Car clubs will be a thing of the past. Private car museums will close their doors. Restoration shops will close for lack of customers. Cruise nights you will be sitting there alone being asked to move along. Swap meets will be extremely small or non-existent. If you by a T or A places like Snyder's and Lang's will have closed for not enough sales. All of the least desirable cars will be scraped for $125. a ton. The storage bill may have greater value than your old car. Yes you bought a 1931 Packard roadster for the bargain price of $5,000. and it just sits there. Having no advocates fighting for the old car hobby and the government passed a pollution law that you can not drive it. Now you can not even get your $5,000. back. After waiting all these years to get a good deal on a pre war car that you can no longer drive. People do not realise the whole picture if antique car prices tank. So do it now while you can enjoy it along with the hobby. 

[sligermachine]

On 6/4/2018 at 5:02 PM, PreWarQc said:

Pre war car market for at least 10 years now and I tought price would have come down slowly, I never expected this!

8000$ for a REO with no wheels, no top, extremly rusted and has not started since the 50's.

when I started it was with a pile of parts and after years ''6 '' it was done  -- one inch at a time . It will work just start .what state do you live in ? 

[Grimy]

OK, OP, I won't consider you a prospect for buying any of my cars, either before or after I croak.  No skin off my nose.  It seems that you are absolutely CERTAIN that there will be a major drop in pre-war prices during your lifetime, and you're unhappy that it hasn't happened yet so you can scarf up a bargain NOW for immediate gratification and immediate validation of your theory.  Well, there are players in the stock market who have had the same degree of certainty about the future of the commodities that they play with, and you should check their performance records.

 

What if you're WRONG, even VERY VERY wrong?  How can you hedge your bets?  Find a car that interests you which you will keep for the joy of it even if its market value drops 90%, one you delight in so much that you consider the expense of the car entertainment.  Think of it as the throw-away entertainment money you take to a casino....

[MCHinson]

PreWarQc,

Supply and demand are always in play. While you seem to see the demand dropping to almost nothing, I see the demand ebbing and flowing over the years. The supply can only decrease. They are not making any new pre-war cars.

 

Some people see a glass as half full, some see it as half empty, you seem to see it as I will wait until the glass is almost empty to buy it cheap. I still can't understand your logic. Perhaps you just do not have enough life experience to see a more hopeful potential future. I have old friends and young friends. Twenty years ago, there were fewer young people in the hobby in my area than there are now. Your views do not reflect my real life experiences and observations in the old car hobby, at least in the US. I have never been to Canada. Maybe the future for the old car hobby is bleak there. I don't know. 

 

If you are not a member, join a local antique car club. They will know what is happening in your particular area regarding pre-war cars. With the right attitude, you will make a lot of great friends. People in antique car clubs often sell cars cheaper to their car club friends than someone who they don't know. Many of those cars never even get advertised. That is the real secret to buying an antique car.  

[maok]

You make an assumption that the market is high or at its peak, and others may think its at the bottom. IMHO, it is foolish to try predict the future.

 

Also, young guys get old too, so their interests change. I am a classic exmaple of this, I would  never of thought of getting into the vintage car market in my 20's or 30's but now that I am in my 40's my interests changed from muscle cars to vintage cars.

 

 

[JV Puleo]

I bought a 1926 Cadillac when I was 19... a 1929 Rolls Royce just before my 21st birthday a 1910 REO when I was 22 or 23. The Cadillac was the often disparaged "4-door sedan". The Rolls had been taken apart in a barn 20 years earlier while the REO had been a sign in front of a nightclub. With the singular exception of two friends of mine, brothers, in fact, we were THE ONLY 20-sometings we knew that had prewar cars - and that was 40 years ago. I seriously doubt that much has changed. Most people seem to get interested in earlier cars in their middle years and strangely, there always seem to be replacements coming up for the those that pass on. 

[1912Staver]

For me the pre- war cars that I would like to own, and even as recently as a decade ago probably could have owned had I not been up to my eyeballs in mortgage debt at the time are things like Nickle era Stutz, Marmon, Kissel, and similar cars. They still don't cost the earth, however they have in my observation and experience generally at least doubled in price over about the last decade. In other words significantly outpaced my ability to pay which  has been quite without increase over the same decade.

 I would also like to know why these cars have more or less doubled. They are reasonably rare, however they are off the mainstream enough that I am sure ownership is a bit of a challenge. There are certainly no old car parts venders offering "out of the catalog" parts back up for them. And they have quite a few drawbacks for anything more than sunny day, calm traffic use. 2 wheel brakes and non-syncro gearboxes just to name the obvious.

 However they are definitely on the price upswing.  Ten years ago I would see them , in older restored or decent running unrestored shape in the $20,000.00 give or take price range. These days they all seem to be a lot more than that. And no , not Gold Bugs or Bearcat's or boat tails. Just the regular roadsters and sport touring's.  I have a reasonable ability with mechanics and parts fabrication offset by limited funds,so a more off beat , upper middle class, late teens, early 20's car seemed to be a reasonable fit. But these days the price escalation has raised an impossible to overcome barrier.  I have liked these cars since I became aware of them in my 30's. I am now on the brink of my 60's and ownership is further away than it has ever been.

Greg in Canada

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Matt Harwood said:

Once again, a Quebecois lives up to the stereotype. Nice job.

 

This is just about the rudest sentence I have ever seen on this forum.

 

Matt, I've found your posts to be generally informative but you have really crossed a line with this bigoted reply.

Whether you agree with the OP or not matters little to me. A spirited debate can be good for all involved but an unwarranted personal attack such as this calls for nothing less than an unqualified apology.

 

While we like to believe the vintage car hobby lends itself to being somewhat exclusive, please remember, in order to be exclusive, one must exclude.

 

Kind Regards, Greg

 

 

 

[Joe in Canada]

Here is an auction where you may be able to pick up an Auburn real cheap about 2 hr, from you. Or about 1 hr from the US boarder where someone from the US could snap it up 30% cheaper.               http://www.dougjarrellauctions.com/june-23-2018.php

Edited June 6, 2018 by Joe in Canada (see edit history)

[cahartley]

2 hours ago, PreWarQc said:

 

And if you bought a 500$ or 1000$ and got it reliable it does not matter what you want for it, the only thing that matters is what the market is willing to pay for it. It could be 50k, it could be 500$. And I'm ok with that, my concern is that owners hold on to their cars because they don't get their price (and this is not a problem)... the problem is that in the long term, they will have no choice but to sell (because everybody gets old and or sick) and since most owners are in the same age group, this will pretty much all happen in a short time frame and then the market will get saturated, the old buyers will not be buying and the young guys will not be there to buy... and then, prices drop, a lot.

By that time, I and other guys like me will have moved on to other cars.

 

 

I'm 66 and didn't buy my first old car until I was 58 years old though I fell in love with a 1911 Model T, when I was 15, that stood in the basement of the local Ford dealership in my town until the founder's son dragged it from the basement and displayed it in the show room.

I bought a 1920 Model T coupe and loved it to pieces.

Then I bought a 1919 Touring T because the Coupe was so much fun I wanted room for passengers to enjoy it with me.......

I've had more and sold, some AT A LOSS, to indulge 5 more until I got my dream car (in my avatar) which forced the sale of 3 more.

I have three now, my 1927 Tudor T, the '32 Chevrolet and my '59 Chevy.

A '59 Chevy was my first car ever which I loved to pieces as well and I needed to have another.

The '59 is has been and always will be my favorite car to drive.

Hobbies aren't all about value.

They are about what you love.

The true value in them is  the cost of enjoyment.

I couldn't care less what someone ELSE thinks my cars are worth.

MONEY can't buy what I get out of enjoying my cars....... ?

 

[C Carl]

Welcome to AACA forums, PreWarQc, and congratulations for having hung in here (if you are still with us), through your "Trial by fire". I can see where you are coming from to a large degree. You see an aspect of a real tectonic change, well under way, in a world the survival of which may depend on reversion to feudalism. Perhaps the magnitude of this societal upheaval will be  more monumental than that of about 3 centuries ago. Playing for keeps, son. I also take your questions literally, and as in all causality games, psychological analysis of the motivations of others can be fun. Any entertaining conclusions should be taken somewhat lightly, as they by their nature , they are based upon assumptions. Regarding the reasons for the deviations from market realities of aging boomers, however, I'll leave my Dr. Diagnosis hat on the rack , at least for the present. O.K. ? I don't even know if you'll be back.

 

Now, I do have something very valuable to offer you after having read everything leading up to my response. Are you still here ? Oh, no : I am not trying to sell my pre-war beauties to you. They are one of those private transactions, long spoken for. Young folk getting them, sick old man turning 74 in a month selling them in slow motion. Dr. Diagnosis prescribed these old Cadillacs (1924 & 1927), as cheap psychotherapy for me. Though you fortunate Canadians have National Health, I don't think they will fill this Rx for you. You gonna have to pay. If you look at it right, you'll more than get your money's worth. If you check back in, I'll show you how.                                                        Very glad you are with us. Don't take constructive criticism too seriously around these parts.        -  Cadillac Carl 

 

 

 

 

 

[C Carl]

Oh hey, 'Qc, I probably should have mentioned  : these two old Cadillacs are unrestored originals. Didn't you say something about appreciating the smell of old  cars.? The smell of the 1924 open Cad with its leather upholstery, is quite different from the smell of the closed '27 with the totally intact, very well preserved mohair velvet interior. Know what I mean.? 

[C Carl]

By the way, your English is idiomatically superb.  - CC 

[ksparks]

very very nice..i had a V-63 suburban 1924 at one time...great cars

 

[ksparks]

over priced pre war cars often sit until a realistic offer is made...fairly priced cars sell.   one has to decide what  make he or she has a passion for and start looking...hard to generalize values with thousands of different makes and models of pre war cars.  a Kissel sedan has a different value than a Kissel roadster or a Locomobile Jr. different than many other locomobiles etc etc.   open versus closed with notable exceptions on values etc.  Stutz six cylinder in late 20s different value than a vertical eight depending on condition. the rule of thumb as the 1940s and 1950s collectors of early cars  taught us...it costs as much to restore a valuable cars as it does a more common make....etc etc

 

[AJFord54]

I thought his question was fair and for the most part true.  There is little interest in the 30s, 40s and earlier "plain Jane" cars from the younger generation.  Visit your AACA local region and check out the age of the membership.  In our club, the average age is probably 70 and 11 or 12 members have passed on in the last couple of years.  It is an AACA national problem and you can agree or disagree, but the younger generation "in general" are not interested in early pre-war cars or hanging out with 75 year old men and women.

Thus, his question I felt was reasonable.  As to answers, perhaps many are going by what they have "invested" in the car and want to recoup their investment.  At some point, there will be a rude awakening.

The market always takes care if itself.  That's capitalism.  If there are fewer buyers, prices will drop. The guy that won't sell because he has "X" invested in the car, just plain won't sell it.  On the other hand, if the car goes to auction, the true value will show up.  A perfect example of this occurred last month in my own backyard where a beautiful Model T sold for a mere $6500.  If I were a buyer for a T, I would have jumped on it.  However, true to form along with this analysis, I have absolutely no desire to own a Model T, nor do many younger people.  The older 70 to 80s generation that might have had an interest, are in the position (in general) of not acquiring any more toys to put in their garage.  

With the above being said, perhaps the auction route would be the best way to purchase a car of that era.  You will receive true "market value" and there is no way to complain about prices.  As I said, it is capitalism at its best.

I will also say that Matt listed two very fair valued cars in his earlier post.  Perhaps they have a premium price to allow him to make a living, but even that seemed very reasonable.  (I don't think you should have taken offense to his pointing them out)

I'd also suggest contacting various AACA clubs and inquiring as to availability of cars for sale.  For instance, currently we have a couple of nice cars (one a Model A) for sale by the spouse due to the death of one of our members.  

As a final note, as mentioned by previous posts, I wouldn't be afraid to pay too much for a car. People purchase a new car for $35,000 knowing full well that it is worth $20,000 once it hits 10,000 miles.  It's what happens in real life and we accept it.  Like the new car, not everything is a perfect investment, which may be (not saying for sure) as to why you're not buying.  If so, you're falling into the same category as the guy that invested "X" and thus wants "X" out of his car.  Find what you want, understand it is a hobby, know it may be just like your iPhone, stereo, etc. and may not go up or even decline in value.  Purchase what you want for the love and satisfaction it will give you.

[edinmass]

If you want to see what you value most, look at your checkbook. I owned at least twenty pre war cars before I ever owned a home. That’s called CHOICE. I built my first home, and had a fascinating conversation with the builder one morning. He said to expect the project to be eight percent over budget. I told him NO, it WILL come in at the total dollar contract price plus changes. His comment .......everyone brakes the budget when they build a home. I told him not a chance with me, and to stop working as soon as we hit the agreed price. (This was fair as I intended from the beginning that any change orders would come out of the finished landscaping and other yard items.) I intended to stay at my contract price come hell or high water. In a stunned gaze he says to me, so your ok with having a car in your garage that costs more than your home, but you won’t spend some extra money to finish the yard and incidentals right away. I said NO, my cars are more important to me than finishing this project, and I rather take a tour and attend several shows in the next 18 months, than finish the house. He walked away stunned. He did a great job on my house, and left when we hit the contract price. All was well and fair, it ended up costing about twenty percent more to get the house across the finish line than the contract price, and about three years of time. I still drove my cars and attended all my shows and events. Priorities.........they dictate what we drive for a pre war car. Some of use are more hardcore than others when it comes to our toys. I don’t regret for a minute the decisions I have made, and I honestly think I have gotten much more out of life placing enjoyment and lifestyle ahead of a house that keeps me “keeping up with the Jones’s.”  My home is 1800 square feet, the neighbor across the street is 9500. I have much better toys and vacations than he does.....in my opinion anyways. If a pre war car is a priority you will find a way to scratch that itch. I never dreamed that when I went to Hershey for the first time in 1971 when I was six that forty years later I would be working on and enjoying the best cars in the world.......because I became a mechanic. If you can’t afford a Duesenberg or GTO 250 become a master mechanic on them, then someone else will pay you to experience the best wheels the world has to offer. 

Edited June 6, 2018 by edinmass (see edit history)

[alsancle]

8 hours ago, maok said:

You make an assumption that the market is high or at its peak, and others may think its at the bottom. IMHO, it is foolish to try predict the future.

 

I've posted this so many times I need to keep it in my profile and cut and paste it.   Twenty years ago I was sitting at an auction with a very well know prewar Packard dealer.   As a much younger guy, I was convinced that demographics was going to cause the prewar market to collapse and I would swoop in and grab some deals.  He was laughing at me and saying the opposite.   I look at the prices from that auction now and what the same cars are bringing now and they are almost all up 100-300%.    Like a stopped clock,  I will eventually be right with my prediction.

[Steve_Mack_CT]

Great time to shop prewar cars, if one buys to enjoy. In no particular order, seen this week alone:

 

38 Dodge sedan, average driver but looks ready to enjoy.  Asking $8,500, craigs list car.

 

40 Ford tudor, CA car, rebuilt flattie 8, appears to be a nice driver,$18k, reputable dealer of prewar Fords.

 

28 or 29 Marmon sedan, original car, 8, ready to use, services performed listed in ad, $24k.  Private sale, hmn ad.

 

Point is, imho these are great options at lower price points, and only 3 off top of my head.  Where will they be value wise in 5, 10 years is another matter, but my guess is mpre than worthless, maybe less than say, $100k.  ?  so buy and enjoy now!

 

 

[Dynaflash8]

53 minutes ago, kmstrade said:

over priced pre war cars often sit until a realistic offer is made...fairly priced cars sell.   one has to decide what  make he or she has a passion for and start looking...hard to generalize values with thousands of different makes and models of pre war cars.  a Kissel sedan has a different value than a Kissel roadster or a Locomobile Jr. different than many other locomobiles etc etc.   open versus closed with notable exceptions on values etc.  Stutz six cylinder in late 20s different value than a vertical eight depending on condition. the rule of thumb as the 1940s and 1950s collectors of early cars  taught us...it costs as much to restore a valuable cars as it does a more common make....etc etc

 

The question is, how does Joe Average figure out a fair value for his car?  Sellers never pay any attention to the Old Car Value Guide or NADA.  Here lately, I can't find a free listing for NADA on line either.  I used to use that as a guide, but I could never buy a car for what they said it was worth.  The latest car I sold I got a value from my insurance company.  My gut feeling is that price I put on it was low.  One thing I've also always found is you can never buy another replacement car for anything close to what you sold yours for.  Makes me scratch my head.

 

[Dynaflash8]

When I was 20, a recognized Classic Duesenberg was maybe $2500 to $4,000 and I was making $3145 a year.  They were kind of out of my ability so I bought a '39 Buick sedan for $40 and waited a week for my bodyman cousin to tow it to my father-in-laws farm.  My father-in-law got it running for me.  Now that Duesenberg is in the millions and 20 year old kids are (some) making over $100,000. 

 

I've now judged at 250 AACA National Meets.  In, let's say, 1967 there might have been 60 Model A's in Class to be judged.  In 1971 there might have been ten 1941 Buicks plus all the other cars of that general age.  At my last Meet there were three 1938-1939 cars shown and five or six 1940-1942 shown.  Now here is what you have to remember.  Since 1967 or 1971 enthusiasts have restored a huge number of those cars.  Many are happily used now as drivers on tours, etc.  I don't see any of the prices of those cars now missing from shows going down.  Try to buy one.  You know time and miles cut the value and that's as it should be.  If the hobby survives, those Camaros and Chevelles will get there too. 

 

Young people who might own a 1969 Buick are agile enough to work on their own cars and that breeds enthusiasm.  And too, most of those cars haven't been through the restoration route already.  The current street rod craze reflects the easier and less expensive route to use modern, cheap, available parts to put an old car on the road.  Parts for older cars have become harder to find (but so much more thrilling to find) and if you can't do your own work labor rates have soured out of sight for Joe Average.  Well, too, that is the way of our world.  As one man said, that's Capitalism.  As I look at prices of cars that I like (1934-1949) the most they seem to be soaring too, because the money is out there big time for the current 40-50 y.o. generation who are making 2-3 times more a year that Joe Average in my generation could do.  There will always be those who seek challenge.  There is a lot less challenge in doing the easier stuff.  I think prices will continue to go up on pre-War cars because the ability to pay will continue to go up (at least to some point I guess).  Ask any dealer.  They know how to get the huge prices.  They know the market and they know how to sell.  I couldn't sell an old car to Joe Dumbo.  Lastly, at some point in life you learn it's not all about money.  It's about living, loving and putting that medicine on what itches.  Finally, it all comes down to what you can spend and what your afterlife responsibilities are.  I guess people still consider living up to their responsibilities.  I hope so.

 

So, if the price goes down, forget it.  As somebody here has said the price goes down on everything, even real estate.  If you need to sell a house during one of the Government's down periods, you'll lose money on it, which just happened to me a couple of months ago.  In the end, it is what it is, so enjoy what you can afford to and want to enjoy for as long as you can.  You're only going to live once I'm told.

[8E45E]

55 minutes ago, Dynaflash8 said:

The question is, how does Joe Average figure out a fair value for his car? 

 

List it on Ebay with a much lower than market value price and have a reserve.  Starting with a lower than market value price will more entice bidders than one at perceived market value.

 

Craig

[PreWarQc]

Well, I have red all your posts (except 1) and I understand and even agree with some of the information that is conveyed. And yes, nobody knows what the future holds and the prices could drop less than what I predict. I might be wrong, but I see more evidence behind my perspective; the biggest one being the absence of interest from people under 60. But I do agree with the fact that younger guys might have a change in taste when it comes to collector cars as they grow older. It’s a big leap from having interests in a, let say Toyota Supra to a 1920 Chandler, but it is possible. And yes, the pre 42’ cars get fewer and fewer because some are not kept in running order, and none are obviously build, so the supply does get smaller every year. But don’t forget that the market is getting fed from the top also. Fox body Mustangs are now collector cars so are a lot of cars from the 80’s-90’s… Camaro, VW Golf, BMW, Acura, Toyota Supra, Celica... and the list goes on. There are a lot of those cars on the market, and young guys are really into them. Also, don’t forget that younger guys have in general, less interest in cars, are more in debt and have less disposable income than older generations.

What I was truly hoping to do here was to debunk what I was thinking and build a case to justify a potential 20k transaction but it really did the opposite for me. In hindsight I think it was foolish of me to think that guys who own and have invested a lot of money in those cars would have a discussion about a possible crash in the market. I appreciate those who were able to cross over their personal interest in the market and try and make a neutral analysis of what I was writing. I honestly hope the market holds and wish none of you lose any money. Above all, I wish that most of these cars will still be around in 20+ years. I am far too conservative to join the party at this stage of the market. I will still be thrilled when I go to museums and car shows and I’ll continue to enjoy them that way. I will obviously stay in the market but I’ll buy something more affordable, I’m probably poorer than I thought if I’m not willing to put 20k on something I love because I’m too worried about its value…

 

 

Edited June 6, 2018 by PreWarQc
Better on. (see edit history)

[trimacar]

9 minutes ago, PreWarQc said:

What I was truly hoping to do here was to debunk what I was thinking and build a case to justify a potential 20k transaction but it really did the opposite for me. In hindsight I think it was foolish of me to think that guys who own and have invested a lot of money in those cars would have a discussion about a possible crash in the market. I appreciate those who were able to cross over their personal interest in the market and try and make a neutral analysis of what I was writing. I honestly hope the market holds and wish none of you lose any money. Above all, I wish that most of these cars will still be around in 20+ years. I am far too conservative to join the party at this stage of the market. I will still be thrilled when I go to museums and car shows and I’ll continue to enjoy them that way. I will obviously stay in the market but I’ll buy something more affordable, I’m probably poorer than I thought if I’m not willing to put 20k on something I love because I’m too worried about its value…

 

Well, not really, you came on here with your mind already made up that car values are going to "crash", and when people didn't immediately agree with your hypothesis, you quit listening to all the OTHER reasons to own a collector car.

 

Yes, prices may go down in the future, who knows.  I, for one, don't care, it would hurt my kids inheritance but it wouldn't hurt me.  My enjoyment of the cars isn't the money, it's the people I've met and the places I've been in the hobby.  This enjoyment, and the many friendships I now have, would never have happened if I'd just been staring at a $20,000 account balance in the bank.

 

We all make choices how we use our money and conduct our lives, and you're obviously free to make yours.  Matt said it best, when he stated that a lot of people think money is precious and time is cheap.  When you get older, you'll really appreciate the wisdom of that statement, remember, I was young once too, and thought time was infinite and old people were silly......

[Dynaflash8]

25 minutes ago, 8E45E said:

List it on Ebay with a much lower than market value price and have a reserve.  Starting with a lower than market value price will more entice bidders than one at perceived market value.

 

Craig

Well, yes, that is an idea.  However, I don't believe anybody will bid a decent price on eBay.  Unless you see a car hands-on, you're crazy to buy it unless it is a giveaway.

 

[Steve_Mack_CT]

Not to take this thread too far afield but at 54 here is where I have seen real, breathing active enthusiasts younger than me in numbers at least strong enough to show a presence if not a trend:

 

As stated, 70s -90s cars, esp. Tuners and Mustang.  But also:

 

Sports & foreign earlier.  Lots of younger people at vintage races, maybe due to ability or aspiration to use their cars in a way besides shows and tours.

 

Brass, touring families are not so rare these days, granted not droves but interest is showing.

 

Model A & T, often putting a family heirloom back on the road.

 

T speedsters, related non T & traditional hot rods.  Half the builders, owners I run across are younger than my middle age.  These guys hate crate powered, turquise street rods and are making much more interesting cars. Imho.  Rat rodders as well, not my cup of tea, but many younger owners with those as well.

 

Some are actually into prewar cars in general as we hear from them on this forum and other virtual meeting places.

 

Traditional car shows, concours, cruise nights maybe less so but thats maybe our window, not so much where the younger hobbyists are today.  Back to OP thoughts, if you are really concerned w resale, maybe consider where younger interest is and if there is common ground, go that way?

 

 

Edited June 6, 2018 by Steve_Mack_CT (see edit history)

[plymouthcranbrook]

13 minutes ago, Dynaflash8 said:

Well, yes, that is an idea.  However, I don't believe anybody will bid a decent price on eBay.  Unless you see a car hands-on, you're crazy to buy it unless it is a giveaway.

 

i might be crazy but I bought a car from Fleabay in 2007 that has been just fine.

[PreWarQc]

2 minutes ago, trimacar said:

 

Well, not really, you came on here with your mind already made up that car values are going to "crash", and when people didn't immediately agree with your hypothesis, you quit listening to all the OTHER reasons to own a collector car.

 

Thanks for yet again telling me what my true intentions and toughts were... such a bad habit some people have here. It's ok if people don't agree with my hypothesis, but give me facts... I didn't get any. And I did not quit ''listening''. I did keep on reading. I kept an open mind but it seems your mind is made up as to what my intentions were so why bother... it truely seems like some people don't actually read, they just go over a few words as fast as they can and it is obvious this is so from the answers I get. Again, truely not impressed.

 

2 minutes ago, trimacar said:

Yes, prices may go down in the future, who knows.  I, for one, don't care, it would hurt my kids inheritance but it wouldn't hurt me.  My enjoyment of the cars isn't the money, it's the people I've met and the places I've been in the hobby.  This enjoyment, and the many friendships I now have, would never have happened if I'd just been staring at a $20,000 account balance in the bank.

 

Thats fine, you do what you want with your money. I'm not judging at all...

 

2 minutes ago, trimacar said:

 

We all make choices how we use our money and conduct our lives, and you're obviously free to make yours.  Matt said it best, when he stated that a lot of people think money is precious and time is cheap.  When you get older, you'll really appreciate the wisdom of that statement, remember, I was young once too, and thought time was infinite and old people were silly......

 

I'm a palliative care professional, I know all about time and death my friend... i've helped hundreds and hundreds of people cross to the other side. And there is a balance in everything. If you put money in something, you can't put it in something else. I rather bring my family on vacation than burn it in mal investment, but thats just me... we are all different.

 

[PreWarQc]

8 hours ago, C Carl said:

Welcome to AACA forums, PreWarQc, and congratulations for having hung in here (if you are still with us), through your "Trial by fire". I can see where you are coming from to a large degree. You see an aspect of a real tectonic change, well under way, in a world the survival of which may depend on reversion to feudalism. Perhaps the magnitude of this societal upheaval will be  more monumental than that of about 3 centuries ago. Playing for keeps, son. I also take your questions literally, and as in all causality games, psychological analysis of the motivations of others can be fun. Any entertaining conclusions should be taken somewhat lightly, as they by their nature , they are based upon assumptions. Regarding the reasons for the deviations from market realities of aging boomers, however, I'll leave my Dr. Diagnosis hat on the rack , at least for the present. O.K. ? I don't even know if you'll be back.

 

Now, I do have something very valuable to offer you after having read everything leading up to my response. Are you still here ? Oh, no : I am not trying to sell my pre-war beauties to you. They are one of those private transactions, long spoken for. Young folk getting them, sick old man turning 74 in a month selling them in slow motion. Dr. Diagnosis prescribed these old Cadillacs (1924 & 1927), as cheap psychotherapy for me. Though you fortunate Canadians have National Health, I don't think they will fill this Rx for you. You gonna have to pay. If you look at it right, you'll more than get your money's worth. If you check back in, I'll show you how.                                                        Very glad you are with us. Don't take constructive criticism too seriously around these parts.        -  Cadillac Carl

 

I appreciate your reply. The first couple of sentences felt like reading F. Hayek! Thank you for sharing those pictures, they are a delight to look at that’s for sure.

Best regards.

[alsancle]

The vacation analogy is actually perfect.  I have friends (and have this discussion/argument with my wife all the time) that use their disposable income on 3 or 4 expensive trips a year.    I pour my money in to my cars and get forced in to one of those vacations every year.

 

I would argue I get the same amount of enjoyment as our friends from that disposable money. Twenty years down the line maybe I have 1/2, 1/3 of that car money still available to me.  Maybe I luck out and one of the cars is actually worth the same or more.  Maybe not.

 

How much money is left from all those vacations?

[39BuickEight]

People are misunderstood all the time online.  When the only thing a person has to go by are words, and no voice inflection, non-verbals, etc, then they will interpret what is typed in all different ways.  A person can't blame another for reading something incorrectly.  Clearly the message is not coming across as intended to many people.  That's not the fault of the folks who reply with good intentions.

[Dynaflash8]

53 minutes ago, plymouthcranbrook said:

i might be crazy but I bought a car from Fleabay in 2007 that has been just fine.

Any time you buy a car sight unseen you take your wallet and throw it toward the lake.  Every time I ever did it, I got junk back.  Just my personal experience.

[PreWarQc]

10 hours ago, GregLaR said:

 

 

I did not read this gentleman’s reply as I felt in the first sentence that it would be way over the line… so I did not see that he made a derogatory comment about my origins. Thank you for taking a stand, I appreciate it. Also, for your open mind in this post and previous ones. Our history is more deeply intertwined that we can imagine. I’ve got ancestors that were founders of cities in the states interestingly enough, the city of Detroit, along with others. One was at one time one of, if not the largest land holder in your country and I’m always fascinated about how much we are much more alike when we start to dig deep. There are almost as much Americans of French-Canadian descent than there is French-Canadians. One only need to travel to Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, upstate NY… to take notice of this. Nothing justifies being insulted obviously what ever origin, but in this case, it does not even make any sense from a cultural perspective.