nick8086

Where is the car market heading in 2017.

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The future is definitely weird. Restomod trucks are bringing the big bucks in Scottdale and a VW Bus went for $275K. (I did have a Westphalia but bought for $1500 and sold for $2k. Never had a pick em up truck).

 

ps That is a Vixen TD21 Class A motorhome. Most of my cars are cult cars that did not sell well when introduced.

topsup.jpgdrsid.jpg

 

 

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By post 45 the thread had moved to storage and after too many years I finally have almost enough garage space (2000 sq ft). May be that part of the impact on the hobby is that few millennials have the space for a toy and particularly not for projects. Zero lot line houses are common which means no access to the back yard.

 

In 1984 when I had my house built, the lot was selected and the house offset to make room for what I wanted but could not afford with interest rates at 12.5% (remember them ?). Priorities were maintaining what I needed (proximity to a world class airport) and family wanted (sidewalks and close to good schools). Then my three cars were all drivers. Today have it all (just got the 'vert finished and off the lift) but took thutty yar to get here. Before that I mostly had carports.

 

So an important point in "where is the hobby going" is the lack of back yards and "project space" so laundry baskets are not set on prized possessions. Such extra space is not a priority for most millennials. This makes a resto-mod with all of the modern capabilities, economy, and safety the vehicle of choice (necessity) for many.

 

Personally am fortunate that cars and computers have always been my main interests and through long term planning have "enough" garage (though am a sucker for DOHC, lotsa carbs or FI, manual transmissions, and two seaters). Just a matter of priorities.

 

These are the best of times.

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Agree storage is a major factor.  Once a project becomes a shelf - laundry baskets, etc. might as well move on as it is all over.  We added a one car garage this year for just that same reason, it was either add space or get rid of one of the hobby cars as outside storage in New England means gradual deterioration.  I had my T Speedster under cover for less than a year, and have some work to repair backwards progress on some of the finished components.  Options were; sell something, completely disassemble & store or add more storage/rent storage.  So we added a prefab single stall - looks like a small barn.  I actually considered moving the T into my finished basement as a static display but am happy with this solution.  It will be literally years before I have a lot of time to devote to it other than small snippets here and there but this way it has its own space - and all that goes on it, relates to it. :)

 

I do think the hobby comes more naturally to those in rural or semi rural areas where space is less of a cost/concern/factor.  As society migrates back into more of an urban environment space becomes even more of a factor.  But that said, a growing number of "under 50" types are showing up with early Fords and as I have said before, anywhere vintage sports cars are draws the younger ones out as well.  I would imagine same in other pockets of the hobby I don't follow myself.  They will drive values as has always been the case.  Point being change will happen, but I doubt the hobby as a whole dies.  Market will vary with different cars.

 

 

Edited by Steve_Mack_CT (see edit history)

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18 minutes ago, padgett said:

...May be that part of the impact on the hobby is that few millennials have the space for a toy and particularly not for projects. Zero lot line houses are common which means no access to the back yard.

 

"Zero lot line" is a term unknown here.

Our country, 3000 miles wide, has plenty of land,

and by far most of the American continent is rural.

One lesson I've learned from forum topics is that,

if you want to store and drive antique cars for

the fullest enjoyment, you should be in a smaller town

or in the beautiful countryside!

 

Or at least store your cars there and take them out often.

You'll enjoy getting out for a breath of fresh air. 

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Here is a link to where the hobby has been going. Why would a person lie in a interview? Why would all the people involved in the shows watch it happen? Why would the 30-40 people at breakfast let the lie go? Why do people try to bring harm to people's businesses? Why would the major show give out awards when they know the truth? Why is it hard to get the youth involved in old cars? Why are so many talented people in this hobby/industry never seen? I can go on with my questions, but I think you get the idea. From what I can remember he did not build those cars, The two guys named did paint them. Wonder why the builder was not named? Well got to go back to work, and build something.  http://www.idahopress.com/members/sweet-rides/article_698166de-86e2-11e2-af22-0019bb2963f4.html

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People like the Chevy owner in the interview clearly have the number one obstacle covered . That is they are wealthy enough to dive in head first. He even states that when he was interested in drag racing he ran a pro stock car. If that doesn't require very deep pockets I don't know what would.

  I have no doubt the older , comparatively wealthy old car fan can have lots of fun.  And get together with a group of similar situation hobbyists over breakfast and talk about how projects are progressing.  Unfortunately there is also a group of us out there that have to make a lot of sacrifices just to participate in old cars in even a superficial way. And no we don't get together with friends and discuss how our painters are going to outdo themselves on the next build.

 After years of toil and scrimping we are lucky to get a 3rd rate {by typical pro built standards} old car into useable condition.  It's this ever higher obstacle of cost that is off putting to many younger people.  Even my own teenage son can't fathom why someone would put body and soul ; over a period of decades, into an old car. The reward is great, but unless a person has finances in order the process becomes too drawn out to consider undertaking.

 

If I knew what I know now about inflation, stagnant wages and downward mobility 40 years ago , I probably would have chosen a different hobby myself and avoided a lot of frustration.

 

Greg in Canada

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32 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:

People like the Chevy owner in the interview clearly have the number one obstacle covered . That is they are wealthy enough to dive in head first. 

Maybe.

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4 hours ago, John_S_in_Penna said:

 

"Zero lot line" is a term unknown here.

Our country, 3000 miles wide, has plenty of land,

and by far most of the American continent is rural.

One lesson I've learned from forum topics is that,

if you want to store and drive antique cars for

the fullest enjoyment, you should be in a smaller town

or in the beautiful countryside!

 

Or at least store your cars there and take them out often.

You'll enjoy getting out for a breath of fresh air. 

Being in the real estate industry for the last 15 or so years I have been to many seminars on the statistics of homeowners. Demographically speaking, the younger home buyer generations are statistically more likely to prefer to live in Urban areas, and many use public transportation. Zero lot line housing indeed is a trend that is happening in a big way on new developments. Younger folks don't want to live in the country in the number previous generations did. 

I just did a little checking and it appears that the prices of urban housing have been driven up so high that this trend is starting to change. So maybe in the future that will affect the hobby in a positive way. 

Edited by victorialynn2 (see edit history)

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Agree, I don't get it but urban living is definitely the preference for most younger folks.  We are semi-rural and if we ever moved it would likely be same or more rural, or in-town in some sleepy place.  Our adult son however, prefers city life and is not incorporating parking for multiple cars in his future plans.  None of his friends want to be rural either, most of mine did at that age.  So some sort of shift has taken place for sure.  That said, the ones who do might not have such a tough time to find a nice affordable place in the sticks if that is what they want - and I think that is good for them!

 

Xander, I enjoy your posts but can't quite follow your point on #56.  If your saying negativity is a self fulfilling prophecy I kind of get it, but this topic is on every forum, in some publications and a lot of car club outings I am aware of.  On one hand, the preoccupation with changing values is a little much, but on the other these cars all have some value not matter which end of the scale they might be, and I guess the interest in trending is now so ingrained in the hobby it won't be going away anytime soon.  If your saying business is good, that is a good sign, I would say, I know most restoration shops (good ones) are busy, and you see more and more pro fabricator/hot rod type builders as well, so I would say that is a good sign.  At least it means people are involved even if it does not speak to the value of the car long term, and the involvement part is really what makes it fun anyway..

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Every place is different. I think some time things go on and people do not stop and look around. I was born and raised here. I am holding out hope that the car scene will be look at in this area. A lot of lives have been destroyed by what goes on. People have said things are changing, we will see. I do not see how this area can avoid a conversation about the custom car scene. Over the years growing up here there were some great car guys with a lot of talent. And they all seemed to get spun out and driven out of business. I never paid much attention to it. Just choices the person made is what I thought. Greed is forced on shops, I have touched on it in other posts. Maybe it is the same in all businesses today, I do not know. But when people allow others to start pushing snow balls. It has a ripple that impacts others. I have said that people tried to collapse my business. This was tried not because of anything that I did. You say all good shops are busy. Could a shop that works hard, gets stuff done, charges a fair price, has great customer service and pulls in more people to the shows. Cause a problem on the car scene? What if a good shop rocked the boat. What if others wanted to own the shop, or the owner. I said in other posts that if you heard my story your jaw would drop. I question this State being a right to work State. We will see if this area wants to have a conversation this year. I am not negative, far from it. I hope things get looked at, and make it a better place for the young people wanting to enter into this hobby/industry around here. It has so much to offer, and so many great thing come from the cars. Some parts of the country are still working out the bugs. This place is going through some growing pains. Some old ways of doing things needs to go away. We will see if my phone rings, who ever is on the other end will find a great custom car shop.

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What goes around comes around.  Zero lot line in my dictionary brings images of the Brownstones of the past usually built prior to WW2 and older.  As the population grew and earned more money,  the population moved out of the crowded cities to the suburbs.

 

I think the similar analogy could be with the younger generation.  With limited funds from their current jobs, they live where they can have a lower cost of living.  As they get older and maybe start having a family they will move to a suburban environment.  Also when they become more stable in finances and family they probably be able to get into the hobby.  I know that until I was about fifty I did not have the disposable income.  It went to the kids.  As the young'ns started moving out I started to have additional discretionary income and finally got my old truck(s).  It all has to do with life stages.

 

Also, remember that the old car hobby is not for the faint of heart or wallet.

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True but does not stay the same. In 1980 Orange county (Florida) had a population of 471,016. 2015 (est) 1,288,126. When I moved here was out in the groves. Now traffic is "interesting". And I see more and more apartment complexes being built.

 

Also the "over 55s" around here tend to find planned retirement communities and these have very small lots. Since two of my garage doors face the back yard having a 12 foot open clearance between my house and the neighbors fence is a good thing

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Well, all I can say Xander is something I have said before regarding those on the business end of the hobby.  the rest of us may kiddingly or seriously think it is all fun and games but reality is it is a business like any other with all of the headaches that go along with that.  As a middle manager in a corporate environment, I have P&L responsibility and answer to a bunch of people for important and ridicules things, but at the end of the day I am an employee - that is different from the responsibility an owner has especially if they have employees whose livelihood depends on your success.  Hope your situation improves.  

 

Interesting that VL sees a trend, even if it is not huge, back out to suburbs/rural areas for some younger people.  Realtors know that stuff better than anyone!  There are a lot of factors at play but in the big picture, bigger than our hobby, seems like a shift back to city living for some is just a reflection of how things might have looked before the interstates - first half of last century the trend we towards urbanization, reversing around the 1950s and maybe now swinging back a bit.  Not that strange, I guess when one steps back and looks beyond our little world here.

Edited by Steve_Mack_CT (see edit history)

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The hobby was/is driven by three groups.  The wealthy can keep writing checks no problem, until the car gets finished and when it's finished, it will have a nice heated storage area.  This group is also driving those wacky auction prices at the "posh venues".

 

The blue collars have always been the BACKBONE of the entire hobby.  They are usually forced to buy lesser condition cars, which means there is a huge market for countless companies to make repro parts/supplies for these cars.  The blue collars do a lot of their own work due to finances. But it takes extra indoor work area to do that.

 

Third group was the flipper.  He likely started as a hobbiest earning extra money for his own projects. Many here have done this for decades.

 

All of the above worked fine in good times, with the boomer generation's tastes in certain years/models, and the fact that this group is more likely to have a place to work, and are "settled in" in life's path, like a long time steady job, and owned their homes for some years.

 

 

Younger people certainly have different tastes in collector cars.  Tuner cars like lowered Jettas that can be used as commuter cars, diesel trucks, and other things WE cannot identify with. But there are reasons for that:

 

Younger people can't get cheap Classic Car Insurance until age 25, so the younger kids might not be able to justify the high cost of insuring two vehicles, and might not have a room for a second car at their condo, apartment, or parents home.  This could be why they buy Jettas and diesels, as it is owning just one vehicle.

 

 

So, if the younger ones don't own what we like, now the flippers can no longer take a chance on buying a 41 Chevy, 65 Tempest, etc for resale, as the market is dying because boomer-age garages are full, and many are retiring and reducing their own stable of cars.

 

The wealthy think the market is just fine, because they look at Barrett Jackson.

 

In any-product/service, retail/wholesale business marketing plan, you must always look ahead to see what the next "active spending generation" wants/needs, not what the past group did. Some people just don't understand this simple concept.

 

.

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Guess I am closest to the second series though managed to avoid management for my entire career (was the one who Made Things Work). Family absorbed most of my income for years - was always a new(ish) family car and I had a toy or two (before the Jeep, the last new car I bought for myself was in 1978).

 

As usual am a contrarian: now that retired & nest is empty can do more than when working and on constant travel (though often carried everything needed to reprogram a memcal with me). Hard part is finding a lady friend who understands my jokes, likes camping in comfort, and doesn't need a hip replacement (still have a desire to tour the US slowly).

 

That said am pretty far from the "normal" AACA member since came from the Reatta forum and my cars must have AC. Further am much more likely to shop for cars on CL than BJ. Next toy will probably be a Cad XLR with a retractable once the prices come down enough (and Florida is a hotbed for unusual cars).

 

So Kids With Money like what other KWM have: 'stangs and ricers. Older kids add Bimmers and Mercs. For them a tuneup requires a laptop. If money is not an object then they don't want an old, slow car, they want a new fast car with an old body on it. And the builders are following that market because that is where the money is (Willie Sutton).

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Padgett, if I were you I would look for a 35 year old lady friend, hips should be good for at least 30 years give or take. :)

 

Your comment on KWM is spot on,  I know Mercedes 1960s - 1980 or so are very popular with younger set.  Check out who is buying slab side lincolns also, if not high dollar restorations, youngsters have most of the other ones, both of which are driving prices up a bit on the remaining decent cars - I kind of watch these cars as I am thinking I might like one - especially a convertible, but the shear number of modified cars is reducing the available stock.  So the conundrum, will changing tastes/and or a declining market reduce prices on these, or will they continue to be hot as they have been in recent years.  I think I am an oddball for my age group, but I will take a '63 Lincoln slab side convertible over most any muscle car of that era.  What I find interesting is the 35 - 40 year old seems to agree.  I have not clue what that means, but it is interesting...

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6 minutes ago, Steve_Mack_CT said:

popular with younger set.

 

8 minutes ago, Steve_Mack_CT said:

changing tastes/

7 minutes ago, Steve_Mack_CT said:

but I will take a ................... over most any muscle car of that era.

 

 

The new generation to replace us....   :

 

Steve, as you well know the nasty Connecticut climate and the "car be gone" road chemicals...Here are my 25 year old Son's "tastes" and "requirements".  Those two things affect the current market.

 

Long, but needs to be:  My son watched, in his toddler years, as I restored a 66 Chevy 4x4 factory A/C camper special pickup that I still own.  He also watched all the customer cars/trucks I worked on at the former home based shop.  He saw all sorts of collector cars..

 

Back in 1991, I was still flipping collector cars to help pay the bills, and I liked doing that.  I saw a nice survivor 1969 Dart factory 4 speed convertible sitting in town at a apartment complex lot.  Not knowing which door to knock on, I placed a note on the car. A few days later he calls to say he owned it since it was near new and would never sell it.  We both had newborn sons a year later, so even though the car quickly disappeared after I got the call, I found out years later from my sons classmate (owners son) that it now sat for years in the family owned warehouse.

 

In 2006, I get a call from the owner:  Impending divorce, and loss of eyesight from a rare disease, "I need to sell it NOW".  I picked it up the next day (Thursday), planning to get it running to list on Ebay that weekend. It was the first car my young son ever helped me with "because he thought it was so cool".   We got it running for a ride on Saturday and I while was writing the Ebay ad.... He looked SO sad.  Sucker me, kept it for his future. You know young teen years in high school; they are NOT motivated in "work" :)  It sat, and still sits, in one of our large buildings.

 

Fast forward through the years; he's always owned daily driver trucks to suit his hobby of hauling a small boat and whatever, but scored a perhaps "lifer job" with the Town of Manchester, and needed a gas miser modern car which he now drives for the commute.  He knew from me, that at age 25 he can get Classis insurance for Cheap.  So, I hoped the Dart would get the cosmetics it needs.. nope.. It just does not fit HIS needs, even though he still thinks it's so cool.

 

He finally found what he wanted JUST last week:  A 73-87 style Chevy short fleetside 4x4. These have more legroom he needs, than the older trucks. You can imagine how impossible to find one in CT, that is not rotted in half.  A 75,000 mile, fully optioned Silverado ex-Texas truck, never driven in CT salt, but not running since 1997!  Needs full cosmetics but it honestly looks 1 year old underneath!

 

Funny part about thinking the "new generation caring little about 100% bone stock" ?  Last week, he was planning to swap the worn front bench seat to the "new trend" of replacing it with the newer Dodge Truck split seat with armrests and folds to 3rd seat....but...he mentioned yesterday, he is now thinking about going a new exact-repro cover on the stock seat, and is even trying to find the correct paint codes for the two tone, now-faded paint.  I think a new "restorer" is born.  He, he

 

but the 340 4 speed Dart conv still sits..

 

.

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Great story F&J - hope to meet at some point, BTW, been following your restoration thread forever. :)

 

Amen on the chemicals here in CT.  It is starting to look like the old days out there on the road with holes a cat can walk through on 5 - 10 year old cars, which was a thing of the past until our road treatments were improved a few years ago.  Your son is closer to the hobby than mine.  He basically ignores the prewar stuff, our '68 Olds Cutlass convert warranted a glance now and then, etc.  He does like the MB SL, which he drives on occasion but otherwise prefers new cars.   Good for your boy for finding one of those Chevy pickups.  He probably wants to keep that job with the Town, BTW - good for him!

 

Now we have taken Nick's post even further off track.  The Dart story though, makes me think of another thread idea (might be recycled though) which is, ever wanted a car you thought was lost only to find it and buy it years later?  It's cool when a car reappears after a few years, decades in some cases... 

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2 hours ago, Steve_Mack_CT said:

Good for your boy for finding one of those Chevy pickups.  He probably wants to keep that job with the Town, BTW - good for him!

 

2 hours ago, Steve_Mack_CT said:

The Dart story

 

Yes, he still needs to get to " full two years of overtime pay-stubs" to get a mortgage, and has been saving for the big down payment.  He is debt free, paying cash for his late model car, and this new project. (he took my advice on cash-economics, thank goodness). 

 

 I hope I survive long enough for him to get a place with ample storage like we have now, because I know he will never sell my 66 truck that we used for vacations and hauling his garden tractors to shows when he was young.  And he most likely WILL someday do something with the 69 Dart, so I won't sell it right now. 

 

..and he just may keep the "new truck" if he gets attached to his first "restoration".  This is why I need my health till he gets settled with his own huge shop :)

 

.

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but the 340 4 speed Dart conv still sits..

 

 

My son wtd a Delorean (Back to the Future) and bought him one as a graduation present from Kings Point.( I hid it in the garage for 3 years, till he graduated). He then decided that he no longer wtd a Delorean, but a rice burner..............

 

so the Delorean was sold immediately and he got his rice burner.

 

I lucked out, because John had passed and Deloreans pretty much doubled in value!

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28 minutes ago, mercer09 said:

but the 340 4 speed Dart conv still sits..

 

 

My son wtd a Delorean (Back to the Future) and bought him one as a graduation present from Kings Point.( I hid it in the garage for 3 years, till he graduated). He then decided that he no longer wtd a Delorean, but a rice burner..............

 

so the Delorean was sold immediately and he got his rice burner.

 

I lucked out, because John had passed and Deloreans pretty much doubled in value!

 

 

"hid it in the garage"  ...  I'm not sure if you saw the Dart in my biggest building on your many trips here... The place is so cluttered, it is like "Where's Waldo"  :)

 

Speaking of John Delorean, Probably nobody here knows he had a brother who was a gearhead as a younger guy in Detroit, even doing some street racing on the famous Woodward Avenue, :) .  Back then he had a souped up standard shift 1956 Olds.  The only reason I know this, is that a few years ago, he phoned me while looking for 56 Olds clutch pedal and linkage....he was in his 80s, and had bought a rust free Arizona 56 Olds, but it had the automatic trans.  He was building a clone of the car he had all those years ago.  I thought that was pretty darned cool.

 

...and sadly, I did not have the correct pedal setup; I had one for 53-older, and one for 57-58, but the 54-56 were unique.

 

.

Edited by F&J (see edit history)

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Hey guys, this young man and his father picked up the '50 today. So nice to see a younger man with that car. It gives me hope that the 50's won't loose favor with them as it's my favorite car era. He is really into flatheads and has previously restored a really nice Crestliner. Not sure what all else, but there have been a few at least. This was the right buyer for the car, a very polite and honest young man. My dad would be happy to see someone restore this to original and not chop and modify it. He intends to send me pics to show my dad during the process. Even though dad may not remember this is his car, he will enjoy seeing the pictures and I will tell him he sold the car to him. I know a few of you considered this car, and I've got to tell you that you missed a good one. :) 

Thanks to all who helped me with info on this forum to make this happen today. Bless you all. 

50 Ford's last pic.jpg

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 ...  I'm not sure if you saw the Dart in my biggest building on your many trips here...

 

 

I was at your place when???????????   LOL!

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