nick8086

Where is the car market heading in 2017.

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From what I have heard and understood,

whenever even "experts" try to predict the coming year

or the future, they really have no special insights.

They tend to look at the past trend and

simply extrapolate it to the coming time period. 

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Since I plan to sell several of my older cars this coming year, I'm sure the market is going to be down,

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After long and exhaustive study over many months I have concluded that the market for antique and classic cars will either go up or go down in 2017.

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1 hour ago, Tom99 said:

Since I plan to sell several of my older cars this coming year, I'm sure the market is going to be down,

That and the fact tat I have money to buy a few nice cars but need to spend it on building a new shop, so there will be deals all over I will have to pass on.  As soon as I get my garage done,  the deals will dry up and the prices will rise. 

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Missed my chance at a Duesey in 1970. Local collector found a Dues Limo in a machine shop not 5 miles from me. The finder, never one to have ready cash, tried to borrow the money from Dad or at least have Dad buy the car and allow the finder a small profit. Dad thought risking $10k  was too much money for the car.

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It is safe to say the market is heading into the future. That being said buy what you love then it will always be priceless.

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Great cars will continue to demand top prices.  What is difficult for me to grasp is the high price of muscle cars and resto-mod cars.  Not that they may be with the price, it's the fact that I grew up in a time when muscle cars were common to see and the price of them tumbled in the 1970s when fuel and insurance issues affected the market value.  If only I knew then what I know today!

 

Terry

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When I see a "hulk", (shell), of a 1967 Camaro.... rusted and sitting on the ground. The owner asking 5000.00 for it. I say the market is going....Stupid.

Between Barrett Jackson and all the other shows...Nothing is realistic any more as to collector automobiles. 

Then we have the rat rod culture whom I can Identify with,.... but 23,000 for a rat rod?

 

I looked at a plain jane 1965 Chevelle convertible yesterday. It is driveable. Needs 2 door skins and a quarter panel patch. Floor patch. total job, you might say. The guy is asking 11,000.00, firm.

 

For the hobby. Nice automobiles, restored, not rodded, can be had at fair and some "give away"prices in the 1928 to 1954 slot.

 

Just my observation and 2 cents.

 

Bill Harmatuk

 

 

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1 hour ago, Xander Wildeisen said:

If people work to make the Hobby/Industry a better place. The market can only go up.

Xander, you have to bear in mind that for many of us less than flush old car guys having the market go down IS a better thing. There is a good number of us on the verge of being priced out of any of the more interesting cars. It's not a problem if a person sees a Plymouth sedan in ones future, but most better choices are a stretch as it is.

 

Greg in Canada

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6 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:

Xander, you have to bear in mind that for many of us less than flush old car guys having the market go down IS a better thing. There is a good number of us on the verge of being priced out of any of the more interesting cars. It's not a problem if a person sees a Plymouth sedan in ones future, but most better choices are a stretch as it is.

 

Greg in Canada

That has always been the case. Restorer32 just said 10K was to much on the Duesenburg. I am not building a Hudson truck because of the resale value. I can think of a few cars that I would like to own, that are way out of my reach. I can tell you my Duesenburg story. When we were selling our 1933 Packard S8 Convertible Coupe. A guy called to ask about the car, we talked on the phone awhile. And then he asked if I would look at a trade. And then he offered a Duesenberg Model J Convertible Coupe. (unrestored white one) The bad part was it would be our 33 Packard and 500K on my end. But I did thank the man for making my day. Because now I tell people that I turned down a Duesenburg, I just leave out the rest of the story.:(

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Were the hobby goes price wise doesn't matter at all, high end cars will be owned and shown by people that can afford them. What I paid to see some of the best at Pebble Beach was well worth it. Bob

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2 hours ago, Xander Wildeisen said:

That has always been the case. Restorer32 just said 10K was to much on the Duesenburg. I am not building a Hudson truck because of the resale value. I can think of a few cars that I would like to own, that are way out of my reach. I can tell you my Duesenburg story. When we were selling our 1933 Packard S8 Convertible Coupe. A guy called to ask about the car, we talked on the phone awhile. And then he asked if I would look at a trade. And then he offered a Duesenberg Model J Convertible Coupe. (unrestored white one) The bad part was it would be our 33 Packard and 500K on my end. But I did thank the man for making my day. Because now I tell people that I turned down a Duesenburg, I just leave out the rest of the story.:(

Well .. I am afraid for many of us a Packard S8 sedan, let alone a S8 convertible coupe is about as affordable as a Duesenberg.  Or in other words not even remotely affordable.  For a good number of us even a $25,00.00 car is a really big step. I know , those of us in this category would well advised to find a different ; more affordable hobby, and leave the old cars to the top 25% and up crowd. 

  Trouble is many of us have been part of the hobby for 40 + years.  And a shrinking disposable income over time is something many of us have to live with. A rising old car market just puts more of us out of the running. And I can think of many , many cars I would like that are only a little out of my reach. But none the less not going to happen.  Like I said unless a tired 51 Plymouth sedan is a persons idea of a fun old car.

 I realise no one in my segment of the hobby is spending much in old car restoration shops, but it would be nice to think there is still a place in the overall hobby for those left behind by inflation.

And Auburnseeker I am in exactly the same spot as you ! Years of saving has resulted in enough of a bank balance to build the shop, but there will be nothing left for a good long time for a car purchase.

Greg in Canada

Edited by 1912Staver (see edit history)

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4 hours ago, Restorer32 said:

Missed my chance at a Duesey in 1970. Local collector found a Dues Limo in a machine shop not 5 miles from me. The finder, never one to have ready cash, tried to borrow the money from Dad or at least have Dad buy the car and allow the finder a small profit. Dad thought risking $10k  was too much money for the car.

My dad bought our first Franklin in Watkins Glenn, NY at the Concours DElegance  for $350.00 with new paint and tires , drove it home . There was a 1929 Duesy J blind quartered sedan that was priced  at $2000.00 . Dad thought it was over priced , a heavy gas hog ....

 

My opinion , for what its worth, is cars that are price accurately are easy to sell.

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I was at the Scottsdale auctions this week, RM,Gooding,and Bonhams. While I only pay direct attention to pre war cars, overall good cars were strong, cars with story or condition issues didn't do too well. I saw a few cars that were bargins in my opinion. Overall I would say moderate.  Arizona is considered the bell weather for the year..........I agree to a certain extent. I think the next 18 months with a new president will moderate things until the markets figure him and his administration effectiveness out. We are all living on borrowed time, get a car sooner than later, there is no guarantee for tomorrow.

Edited by edinmass (see edit history)
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I think Scottsdale does set the tone for the market. I to just watch pre war cars because that is where my interest is.(and Hudson's) If you want my opinion for the best gauge of the market, watch early Fords. When early Fords are not selling, you have a problem. I do not think the new guy in charge will have any impact on the car market to the down side. I think that there are great buys on cars for under 18k. And if you know how to do some or all the work yourself. You can step into a pretty good project for very little money. The choice of what car, plays a lot in the cost to build/restore. Around here you get  some good buys, but try and sell stuff here. And someone else is getting a good buy. Not up to speed on 37 Lincolns but this one looks like you could wash it, rub out the paint, tune it up. And drive a great car with very nice styling.   https://spokane.craigslist.org/cto/5963834512.html

Edited by Xander Wildeisen (see edit history)

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The Zephyr does look like a pretty fair deal.  No doubt a money pit if someone wanted to do a restoration, but definite potential as you suggest as a driver survivor.  The 12 's have a reputation for costly rebuilds , and were frequently replaced by later flathead 8's.  No mention if V8 or V12 in the ad.  But it definitely looks like someone could have a decent ride without breaking the bank. Keep them coming, not in the market for a Zephyr but Idaho is not far away .

 

Greg in Canada

Edited by 1912Staver (see edit history)
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6 hours ago, 1912Staver said:

...For a good number of us even a $25,000.00 car is a really big step. I know, those of us in this category would well advised to find a different ; more affordable hobby, and leave the old cars to the top 25% and up crowd. 

 Trouble is many of us have been part of the hobby for 40 + years. ...

 

Mr. Staver, keep up your enthusiasm!

Popularity and pricing shift from decade to decade,

but thankfully, there are plenty of affordable cars 

out there for budgets of all kinds.

 

Choose what is NOT popular:  Your money goes

farther.  Just about any car from 1916 to 1927 or so

has lost popularity, so you can own a closed car from that

era for less than they used to cost.  Get a 4-door hardtop

from the 1950's or 1960's--a forgotten body style that

is disappearing, and no one's taking notice. 

Buy a full-sized car from the 1960's while everyone's 

collecting the mid-sized and muscle cars.

Buy a Nash or a Frazer or a Studebaker, or a car from 1973 up.

 

And your lesser-seen cars may be more interesting

at shows for the very reason that they're seen less!

Edited by John_S_in_Penna (see edit history)
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11 hours ago, Uncle_Buck said:

I buy high, sell low then make up the difference in volume ....

Buy at Retail, sell at Wholesale has been my plan for success all my life.

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14 hours ago, Restorer32 said:

After long and exhaustive study over many months I have concluded that the market for antique and classic cars will either go up or go down in 2017.

Or, stay the same.

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It looks like a continuing declining trend on pre WWII cars, although the high-end "classics" will remain strong.  Muscle cars will remain popular and hold or grow overall in pricing, as they offer nostalgia for baby boomers, and are also driveable at modern highway speeds.  Cheap gas doesn't hurt!  I'll go out on a limb and say fifties cars have peaked and will begin a downturn.   Ferrari, Porsche, and other selected lower volume, high performance post-muscle era cars will stay on the uptrend.  Tasteful, well-executed resto-rods that offer the panache of nostalgia coupled with contemporary technology will hold steady as an appealing niche.  Though not my favorite, the high cost of labor and paint also will result in sustained interest in the "rat rod" look.  That's my $0.02.

Edited by Akstraw
Added text (see edit history)

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7 minutes ago, Akstraw said:

I'll go out on a limb and say fifties cars have peaked and will begin a downturn. 

I have been doing a lot of research the last 2 years while I'm liquidating my father's estate. I'm an obsessive type of researcher and spend hours when something interests me. Also a former Realtor, so familiar with sales. I agree with your assessment 100%. 

I am most sadden by the 50's cars loosing favor as they are my favorites. I'm 51 and those cars were what people my parents age and older grew up with. They are sadly collecting less and less. I do see a glimmer of hope that they could have a comeback though. I just sold a 50 Ford to someone I'd  guess at my children's age. He has other 50's cars. I have seen some others as well who collect them in that age range (late 20's to 30's). Personally, cars from that era are my favorite. 

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