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Where is the car market heading in 2017.


nick8086

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1 hour ago, Tom99 said:

Since I plan to sell several of my older cars this coming year, I'm sure the market is going to be down,

That and the fact tat I have money to buy a few nice cars but need to spend it on building a new shop, so there will be deals all over I will have to pass on.  As soon as I get my garage done,  the deals will dry up and the prices will rise. 

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Missed my chance at a Duesey in 1970. Local collector found a Dues Limo in a machine shop not 5 miles from me. The finder, never one to have ready cash, tried to borrow the money from Dad or at least have Dad buy the car and allow the finder a small profit. Dad thought risking $10k  was too much money for the car.

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Great cars will continue to demand top prices.  What is difficult for me to grasp is the high price of muscle cars and resto-mod cars.  Not that they may be with the price, it's the fact that I grew up in a time when muscle cars were common to see and the price of them tumbled in the 1970s when fuel and insurance issues affected the market value.  If only I knew then what I know today!

 

Terry

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When I see a "hulk", (shell), of a 1967 Camaro.... rusted and sitting on the ground. The owner asking 5000.00 for it. I say the market is going....Stupid.

Between Barrett Jackson and all the other shows...Nothing is realistic any more as to collector automobiles. 

Then we have the rat rod culture whom I can Identify with,.... but 23,000 for a rat rod?

 

I looked at a plain jane 1965 Chevelle convertible yesterday. It is driveable. Needs 2 door skins and a quarter panel patch. Floor patch. total job, you might say. The guy is asking 11,000.00, firm.

 

For the hobby. Nice automobiles, restored, not rodded, can be had at fair and some "give away"prices in the 1928 to 1954 slot.

 

Just my observation and 2 cents.

 

Bill Harmatuk

 

 

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1 hour ago, Xander Wildeisen said:

If people work to make the Hobby/Industry a better place. The market can only go up.

Xander, you have to bear in mind that for many of us less than flush old car guys having the market go down IS a better thing. There is a good number of us on the verge of being priced out of any of the more interesting cars. It's not a problem if a person sees a Plymouth sedan in ones future, but most better choices are a stretch as it is.

 

Greg in Canada

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6 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:

Xander, you have to bear in mind that for many of us less than flush old car guys having the market go down IS a better thing. There is a good number of us on the verge of being priced out of any of the more interesting cars. It's not a problem if a person sees a Plymouth sedan in ones future, but most better choices are a stretch as it is.

 

Greg in Canada

That has always been the case. Restorer32 just said 10K was to much on the Duesenburg. I am not building a Hudson truck because of the resale value. I can think of a few cars that I would like to own, that are way out of my reach. I can tell you my Duesenburg story. When we were selling our 1933 Packard S8 Convertible Coupe. A guy called to ask about the car, we talked on the phone awhile. And then he asked if I would look at a trade. And then he offered a Duesenberg Model J Convertible Coupe. (unrestored white one) The bad part was it would be our 33 Packard and 500K on my end. But I did thank the man for making my day. Because now I tell people that I turned down a Duesenburg, I just leave out the rest of the story.:(

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2 hours ago, Xander Wildeisen said:

That has always been the case. Restorer32 just said 10K was to much on the Duesenburg. I am not building a Hudson truck because of the resale value. I can think of a few cars that I would like to own, that are way out of my reach. I can tell you my Duesenburg story. When we were selling our 1933 Packard S8 Convertible Coupe. A guy called to ask about the car, we talked on the phone awhile. And then he asked if I would look at a trade. And then he offered a Duesenberg Model J Convertible Coupe. (unrestored white one) The bad part was it would be our 33 Packard and 500K on my end. But I did thank the man for making my day. Because now I tell people that I turned down a Duesenburg, I just leave out the rest of the story.:(

Well .. I am afraid for many of us a Packard S8 sedan, let alone a S8 convertible coupe is about as affordable as a Duesenberg.  Or in other words not even remotely affordable.  For a good number of us even a $25,00.00 car is a really big step. I know , those of us in this category would well advised to find a different ; more affordable hobby, and leave the old cars to the top 25% and up crowd. 

  Trouble is many of us have been part of the hobby for 40 + years.  And a shrinking disposable income over time is something many of us have to live with. A rising old car market just puts more of us out of the running. And I can think of many , many cars I would like that are only a little out of my reach. But none the less not going to happen.  Like I said unless a tired 51 Plymouth sedan is a persons idea of a fun old car.

 I realise no one in my segment of the hobby is spending much in old car restoration shops, but it would be nice to think there is still a place in the overall hobby for those left behind by inflation.

And Auburnseeker I am in exactly the same spot as you ! Years of saving has resulted in enough of a bank balance to build the shop, but there will be nothing left for a good long time for a car purchase.

Greg in Canada

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4 hours ago, Restorer32 said:

Missed my chance at a Duesey in 1970. Local collector found a Dues Limo in a machine shop not 5 miles from me. The finder, never one to have ready cash, tried to borrow the money from Dad or at least have Dad buy the car and allow the finder a small profit. Dad thought risking $10k  was too much money for the car.

My dad bought our first Franklin in Watkins Glenn, NY at the Concours DElegance  for $350.00 with new paint and tires , drove it home . There was a 1929 Duesy J blind quartered sedan that was priced  at $2000.00 . Dad thought it was over priced , a heavy gas hog ....

 

My opinion , for what its worth, is cars that are price accurately are easy to sell.

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I was at the Scottsdale auctions this week, RM,Gooding,and Bonhams. While I only pay direct attention to pre war cars, overall good cars were strong, cars with story or condition issues didn't do too well. I saw a few cars that were bargins in my opinion. Overall I would say moderate.  Arizona is considered the bell weather for the year..........I agree to a certain extent. I think the next 18 months with a new president will moderate things until the markets figure him and his administration effectiveness out. We are all living on borrowed time, get a car sooner than later, there is no guarantee for tomorrow.

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I think Scottsdale does set the tone for the market. I to just watch pre war cars because that is where my interest is.(and Hudson's) If you want my opinion for the best gauge of the market, watch early Fords. When early Fords are not selling, you have a problem. I do not think the new guy in charge will have any impact on the car market to the down side. I think that there are great buys on cars for under 18k. And if you know how to do some or all the work yourself. You can step into a pretty good project for very little money. The choice of what car, plays a lot in the cost to build/restore. Around here you get  some good buys, but try and sell stuff here. And someone else is getting a good buy. Not up to speed on 37 Lincolns but this one looks like you could wash it, rub out the paint, tune it up. And drive a great car with very nice styling.   https://spokane.craigslist.org/cto/5963834512.html

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The Zephyr does look like a pretty fair deal.  No doubt a money pit if someone wanted to do a restoration, but definite potential as you suggest as a driver survivor.  The 12 's have a reputation for costly rebuilds , and were frequently replaced by later flathead 8's.  No mention if V8 or V12 in the ad.  But it definitely looks like someone could have a decent ride without breaking the bank. Keep them coming, not in the market for a Zephyr but Idaho is not far away .

 

Greg in Canada

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6 hours ago, 1912Staver said:

...For a good number of us even a $25,000.00 car is a really big step. I know, those of us in this category would well advised to find a different ; more affordable hobby, and leave the old cars to the top 25% and up crowd. 

 Trouble is many of us have been part of the hobby for 40 + years. ...

 

Mr. Staver, keep up your enthusiasm!

Popularity and pricing shift from decade to decade,

but thankfully, there are plenty of affordable cars 

out there for budgets of all kinds.

 

Choose what is NOT popular:  Your money goes

farther.  Just about any car from 1916 to 1927 or so

has lost popularity, so you can own a closed car from that

era for less than they used to cost.  Get a 4-door hardtop

from the 1950's or 1960's--a forgotten body style that

is disappearing, and no one's taking notice. 

Buy a full-sized car from the 1960's while everyone's 

collecting the mid-sized and muscle cars.

Buy a Nash or a Frazer or a Studebaker, or a car from 1973 up.

 

And your lesser-seen cars may be more interesting

at shows for the very reason that they're seen less!

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It looks like a continuing declining trend on pre WWII cars, although the high-end "classics" will remain strong.  Muscle cars will remain popular and hold or grow overall in pricing, as they offer nostalgia for baby boomers, and are also driveable at modern highway speeds.  Cheap gas doesn't hurt!  I'll go out on a limb and say fifties cars have peaked and will begin a downturn.   Ferrari, Porsche, and other selected lower volume, high performance post-muscle era cars will stay on the uptrend.  Tasteful, well-executed resto-rods that offer the panache of nostalgia coupled with contemporary technology will hold steady as an appealing niche.  Though not my favorite, the high cost of labor and paint also will result in sustained interest in the "rat rod" look.  That's my $0.02.

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7 minutes ago, Akstraw said:

I'll go out on a limb and say fifties cars have peaked and will begin a downturn. 

I have been doing a lot of research the last 2 years while I'm liquidating my father's estate. I'm an obsessive type of researcher and spend hours when something interests me. Also a former Realtor, so familiar with sales. I agree with your assessment 100%. 

I am most sadden by the 50's cars loosing favor as they are my favorites. I'm 51 and those cars were what people my parents age and older grew up with. They are sadly collecting less and less. I do see a glimmer of hope that they could have a comeback though. I just sold a 50 Ford to someone I'd  guess at my children's age. He has other 50's cars. I have seen some others as well who collect them in that age range (late 20's to 30's). Personally, cars from that era are my favorite. 

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Restomods and 60s muscle cars seem to be the cars of choice and at times go for crazy prices. My first car was a 67 GTO so I grew up in the muscle car era but now I'm a pre-war fan. I think most of the pre-war cars have been on a slow decline for a while.

Scott

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8 hours ago, Akstraw said:

... I'll go out on a limb and say fifties cars have peaked and will begin a downturn. ... 

 

For a while, I have been thinking that interest in 1950's cars

is declining.  I see that you're pondering the same thing.

And Victoria Lynn (posting #25) perceives it, too.

 

I'll go farther than you:  It's not that the downtown WILL happen;

I think it's beginning already.  Members of our AACA region appreciate

cars of all eras.  However, when our AACA region has a tour (3 times a year),

it is the 1960's cars that turn out in largest numbers.

And at Hershey, the 1950's cars may possibly be holding steady in number,

but they aren't increasing.  Cars of the 1960's and up are increasing in number.

 

Today's hobbyist can relate very well to 1960's cars.

I think that decade is currently in its prime of interest.

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To a certain extent I agree, OTOH I still think the hobby is fragmenting as well. Think I am up to Thursday on BJ (record on DVR then 4X). And it is clear that restomods are leading the way in quanity & all are very shiny. My surprise was that a  bagged 3100 is top dollar so far (but still in low six figures). Suspect Friday/Saturday will tell the tale but not there yet.

 

And on the gripping hand I just do not think the way those in the sky boxes do, trophies are not that important, am much more "hands on".

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I think all cars will have a following. My interest in pre war cars will not fade because people like 60's cars. Quality work on the restoration/build is what I like to see. Lots of talent out there, I hope some things start to change in the year 2017.

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Didn't we just have a 10 page thread on the car market?

 

You guys are too hung up on eras.  The issue is not when the car was built but where it fits in the pecking order for that particular era.   The top 1% of the cars from any particular era are doing just fine,  top 10% ok too.  Bottom 50% of almost every market with the exception of brass are in danger of rotting away or being crushed.   All of this is consistent with the decline in basic mechanical aptitude and changes leisure time interests.

 

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Yes and no. alsancle is right in what he has said. But I do not agree with the bottom 50% rotting away. So would a 30-31 Model A coupe be in the bottom 50%? Not much love on the restoration side around here. But hot rod/custom gold. Great cars for young builders to learn on, and look pretty cool in any form on the road. All cars have a place, if born ugly and disfigured they will fall under the torch and cut off wheel.

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6 minutes ago, Xander Wildeisen said:

Yes and no. alsancle is right in what he has said. But I do not agree with the bottom 50% rotting away. So would a 30-31 Model A coupe be in the bottom 50%? Not much love on the restoration side around here. But hot rod/custom gold. Great cars for young builders to learn on, and look pretty cool in any form on the road. All cars have a place, if born ugly and disfigured they will fall under the torch and cut off wheel.

On the vintage tours there is always Model A's but last year on a vintage tour in Bellville there was plenty of T's but no model A's. That was a first, but the next vintage tour we were on they made up for it. I do not think Model A's are depreciating as they seem to be an old time favorite en every crowed. 

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31 minutes ago, Joe in Canada said:

On the vintage tours there is always Model A's but last year on a vintage tour in Bellville there was plenty of T's but no model A's. That was a first, but the next vintage tour we were on they made up for it. I do not think Model A's are depreciating as they seem to be an old time favorite en every crowed. 

I hauled a '30 5 window coupe on an open trailer from Texas to Oregon. (2200 miles). I can tell you it got a lot more attention BY FAR then a '70 Bronco. The Bronco sold for more $, but the A was a big attention getter when we stopped. 

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The Model A will always have a following because of its simplicity, style and availability of parts. 

 

I personally love stuff you don't see often,  Peerless, Marmon, Reo, Gardner, Jordan, Sterns, Hupp, etc.  But it is harder for these cars to maintain a following because the parts and knowledge are in shorter supply.  A roadster will always find someone to love it but I wonder about the 4 sedans, etc.

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13 minutes ago, alsancle said:

The Model A will always have a following because of its simplicity, style and availability of parts. 

 

I personally love stuff you don't see often,  Peerless, Marmon, Reo, Gardner, Jordan, Sterns, Hupp, etc.  But it is harder for these cars to maintain a following because the parts and knowledge are in shorter supply.  A roadster will always find someone to love it but I wonder about the 4 sedans, etc.

There is a 1916 REO 6cyl. for sale in for sale forum that has dropped drastically in price with no takers. What is the reason that one is not moving. The guy must have double that in the car. It looks very nice with extensive work done to it. Soft marked?? unpopular model?? unpopular vintage??

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I am with you alsanuncle. My list would be in no particular order Marmon, Stutz, Kissel, Auburn etc. Later teens to about 1927 or so. And the more sporting versions rather than sedans, if for no other reason than trying to keep the weight down . Many of these cars will have 2 wheel only brakes and if they are going to be driven every pound counts. Even the 4 wheel brake cars will be marginal in todays traffic if carrying a heavy sedan body.

  None of these cars in my possession, and probably not going to be possible for the future. There are very few cars of this type in Western Canada, and my severely devalued Canadian peso makes a U.S. purchase and import all but impossible.  Notice all the Canadian cars on the U.S. market these days. Us Canadians are definitely being priced out of the market { roughly 40% loss in purchasing power over the last 3 years}.

 

Greg in Canada

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I don't care how good the deal is on a car from an era that is a "Walk by" in my opinion, I'll stick with the cars I like. There wiil always be cars I can't afford, but I was very happy years ago when I got to work on some of the finest out there. Bob

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If you look hard enough, you can always find a entry level car from any era or category to start in the hobby. HCCA cars can be purchased running and driving for as little as ten thousand dollars. Nickel era cars are all,over the place and fifteen grand will buy a fun turn key car. CCCA Classics can be found for the high teens. Post war cars for less than ten grand are all over the place. Purchasing a starter car has never been more affordable. The cost of repairs, parts, restoration, and  discretionary income are the hard things today. Time is what I see as the biggest  obstacle  for most people, today's lifestyle and family demands leave little time for any hobby, reguardless of the cost. 

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After long and exhaustive study over many months I have concluded that the market for antique and classic cars will either go up or go down in 2017.

 

I like your take Restorer- reminds me of the noted economist who won the nobel prize a few years back, concerning our economy............. he gave the same advice!

 

makes you want to scratch your head..............................

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