Joe in Canada

Where is our vintage car market headed???

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4 hours ago, hidden_hunter said:

can't wait for a cheap duesenberg or doble :D

 

I could be waiting a while...

 

I would love to see a Doble go through a public auction.  I predict there would be a feeding frenzy.  Although maybe the steam would scare the traditional high end buyers?

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AJ how many Dobles exist?  I read somewhere it is in the single digits.  This I think from my 1970s AQ "World of Cars" I believe.

 

On Morgans I doubt any will be lost due to the wood framework in the near future anyway.  Despite the prewar look, these fall squarely in the postwar sports market which is performing pretty well.  Attend any vintage race or event that features these types of cars and you will see plenty of young collectors.  These cars are well supported, not unlike the MGs of the same era, but a little larger and more powerful.  Not arguing that wood is a non-issue, but that the demand is a bit higher, the solution exists, and one can either go it alone or chose from a few known shops that specialize in these cars.  The wood reinforced frame on the early cars represents a lot of labor to fix, but at least not impossible to duplicate plans.  

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Although maybe the steam would scare the traditional high end buyers?

 

 

dont think so. The Stanleys pull a pretty good price and the high end buyers can generally afford "helpers" or mechanics to do the grunt work.

 

Havent seen a Doble for sale in forever years!

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I was more being facetious, the ultra high end will always have a market - I suspect the area that's going to be hit the hardest will be the bottom to mid market  

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On 11/5/2016 at 9:37 PM, Larry Schramm said:

I think that next year I might bring the '84 VW camper to one of the shows.  It is now 33 years old.

 

When I bring the Buick truck,  the common question is what year is you Model T?  To the general public, I think everything prior to 1920 is a Model T.  Especially if it is black.

But the truck isn't black???

 

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8 minutes ago, BUICK RACER said:

But the truck isn't black???

 

 

The hood, radiator and the fenders are black.  :)

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As probably one of the younger guys to respond (still early 40's) there are a few problems with the classic car hobby/antique car hobby/collector car hobby and some of them have been addressed already but to rehash and cover my points and give you guys something to think about:

 

1) Cost-many of the vehicles in order to even get into a rusted hulk is still a few thousand dollars, and that doesn't even count the cost of what it will take to slowly work it into something even resembling a "nice" car that's no where close to being a show winner

 

2) Availability- when was the last time you saw one of the cars listed above at a reasonable price that a younger person could obtain?

 

3) Desire-This is something that no one really has mentioned. What mad the 50's car so desirable...the group that was buying them wanted them, as the "collector" age moved up and a new crowd is introduced the genre of cars has slowly moved up and is why the 60's and 70's car are now getting harder to find at a reasonable cost?

 

4) Emotion-many of the classic cars there is some sort of emotional tie in, you saw it as a kid, mom and dad had one, whatever it is, without that tie in there is no reason to get one. Now if grandpa had one may get you in the door, but isn't going to get you invited in for dinner

 

5) Generation-This is one that no one thinks about. When you start reading about the more recent generations they would rather have a laptop or a cellphone than a car. How do you convince that person that buying a car that they have no connection to is a good idea, let alone something of value?

 

6) Interest/education-How many kid can work on these cars, shoot I am 40 and barely remember carbs and points. Yes I have a the tools, and even have a vacuum plate so I can balance dual carb set ups, but most kids don't want to get dirty and work on cars unless they have that mentor in their life that shows them how to, again this leads into the how do you get someone interested in this. Also leads into maintaining the car. many times maintaining a new car is a bind on the budget that many people have a hard time affording let alone the cost of rare or hard to find classic car parts (i.e expensive).

 

I can see where restoration shops can be busy, but the cost to restore those cars, and in many cases maintain these cars is quite an issue. I personally have three "fun" cars, but none are older than 1998. Part of it is where I live finding it is a challenge, the other is that what I am currently interested I kind of walked into. What will the next car be, the wife and I are talking something from the 70's or 80's but those were the cars when we were kids that were desirable. Would we like to go 60's or 70's yeah as that is what I grew up on, but again she has no connection to them and is what we played with my dad when we were kids (actually had a 50's lead sled).

 

The other thing is that I could restore a car, but bringing something back to stock is something that most anyone can do, have the ability to modify/tweak to make it my own is my style. That's why it is hard for me to get one of the beautifully restored cars only to know that I want to change it, and thereby destroying all the value.

 

Just my thoughts. I think it will consider but will constantly be shifting...but when you get into the 80's it is even harder to find stuff that has the collectability.

 

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I resemble that remark. Must admit that the last time I had a car from the fifties (and had about a dozen) it was in the 60's. In the 70's and 80's it was cars of the 60's and 70's. About every 10 or 12 years something interesting would come along & would buy one. Except for a Pontiac in 72 that was to replace a 70 GS Buick that was T-boned by a Mustang.

 

Today the herd (below) ranges from 1970 to 2012 (all from the last century are over 25 now). Half have manual transmissions. All have AC. None are 100% stock (but only one needed a sawzall and cut-off tool). Guess I never wanted a coffee table.

 

Agree the target is always moving and the club needs to move along with it. Generations tend to herd together. Is amazing the disparity found at the AACA site, started for the Reattas but this is a lot of fun. Know I have distractors, I usually just outlast them.

 

Are a lot of interesting cars out there, some at bargain basement prices, just need to be constantly trolling.

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On November 3, 2016 at 3:51 PM, trimacar said:

Let's look at this in tier levels, based on units needed to acquire a certain vehicle.

 

8 figures....Cars in this class, are in a class of their own, and the people who buy them are too....there's appreciation for works of art, which these cars are, but one has to be able to write such a check with little affect to the bank account

 

7 figures....There'll always be "pride of ownership", so the high end cars will always have a home with the affluent, some who love them, some who appreciate history, some just keeping up with the (wealthy) Joneses

 

6 figures....some very successful people here, who, as in 7 above, may love them, or love the effect that ownership has on other people, still rarified air for most of us hobbyists....As a side note, I've also seen people buying cars in this range who were fairly average Joes, middle to upper middle class, may have had some cars for a long time that were well bought then sold and borrowed to get that one car they'd been thinking about for ages....for those guys, it's love and family support and the pleasure of owning a great car they've admired for years....

 

5 figures....well, going to split this one

     -high 5 figures, see 6 above, or someone who just absolutely loves a certain car and stretches to acquire same (see 5, just not quite as fluid with assets), we're getting down to enthusiasts willing to risk some serious bucks (to them) to own a piece of history

     -low 5 figures, well, now we're in the range of just about anyone who has a steady job and owns a home.  Just about anyone (with those two stipulations) can come up with low 5 figures if they want to, and they want a collectable car.  This range is probably 80% of more of all collectable cars, so a very important part of the hobby. Very important....

 

4 figures....some nice low end collectables here, lots of fun for little money....and if you think you need to spend a lot to have a lot of fun, look at Model T guys, and the tours they do, and the MTFCA forums.  Tons of fun on the cheap.

 

3 figures...forget it.  Project cars in the 3 range, parts cars or rough,  as are some in the 4 and 5 range, and unless highly desirable, with the cost of restoration, they have a hard time finding a new home.  The cost of restoration these days, even doing it yourself, put's these cars in a "labor of love" category.

 

So yes, there's a market out there, and it still seems healthy, within limits.  Time will change things, of course, and I do believe that right now, there are a LOT of large collections that are owned by fellows that are well up in years, and unless they make arrangements to put cars in a museum, the next 10 to 15 years will see massive amounts of heavy iron hitting the market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice points. However I would expand some on condition as well as price on lower end cars. A car in #4-6 condition as well as not preferred specs might be fodder for being redone. So really this could apply to any tier. However to some extent a $500 project car could still have been the same 20 years ago. The world's nicest 1978 Ford Granada is only going to be worth so much and a 1953 Chevrolet truck that is a project won't be worth a lot, but there are still a ton of people looking for them to put back on the road. Plus someone might take that 1978 Ford Granada that is cheap regardless of age and daily drive it too.

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Plus someone might take that 1978 Ford Granada that is cheap regardless of age and daily drive it too.

 

 

 

In NJ they just passed a law that any pre 1995 car needs no inspection.

 

so my 93 taurus with 50k original miles is my new daily driver. was going to sell it, nobody wants it and so it is the default vehicle here and now.

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On ‎11‎/‎9‎/‎2016 at 7:52 PM, marchi1 said:

As probably one of the younger guys to respond (still early 40's) there are a few problems with the classic car hobby/antique car hobby/collector car hobby and some of them have been addressed already but to rehash and cover my points and give you guys something to think about:

 

1) Cost-many of the vehicles in order to even get into a rusted hulk is still a few thousand dollars, and that doesn't even count the cost of what it will take to slowly work it into something even resembling a "nice" car that's no where close to being a show winner

 

2) Availability- when was the last time you saw one of the cars listed above at a reasonable price that a younger person could obtain?

 

3) Desire-This is something that no one really has mentioned. What mad the 50's car so desirable...the group that was buying them wanted them, as the "collector" age moved up and a new crowd is introduced the genre of cars has slowly moved up and is why the 60's and 70's car are now getting harder to find at a reasonable cost?

 

4) Emotion-many of the classic cars there is some sort of emotional tie in, you saw it as a kid, mom and dad had one, whatever it is, without that tie in there is no reason to get one. Now if grandpa had one may get you in the door, but isn't going to get you invited in for dinner

 

5) Generation-This is one that no one thinks about. When you start reading about the more recent generations they would rather have a laptop or a cellphone than a car. How do you convince that person that buying a car that they have no connection to is a good idea, let alone something of value?

 

6) Interest/education-How many kid can work on these cars, shoot I am 40 and barely remember carbs and points. Yes I have a the tools, and even have a vacuum plate so I can balance dual carb set ups, but most kids don't want to get dirty and work on cars unless they have that mentor in their life that shows them how to, again this leads into the how do you get someone interested in this. Also leads into maintaining the car. many times maintaining a new car is a bind on the budget that many people have a hard time affording let alone the cost of rare or hard to find classic car parts (i.e expensive).

 

I can see where restoration shops can be busy, but the cost to restore those cars, and in many cases maintain these cars is quite an issue. I personally have three "fun" cars, but none are older than 1998. Part of it is where I live finding it is a challenge, the other is that what I am currently interested I kind of walked into. What will the next car be, the wife and I are talking something from the 70's or 80's but those were the cars when we were kids that were desirable. Would we like to go 60's or 70's yeah as that is what I grew up on, but again she has no connection to them and is what we played with my dad when we were kids (actually had a 50's lead sled).

 

The other thing is that I could restore a car, but bringing something back to stock is something that most anyone can do, have the ability to modify/tweak to make it my own is my style. That's why it is hard for me to get one of the beautifully restored cars only to know that I want to change it, and thereby destroying all the value.

 

Just my thoughts. I think it will consider but will constantly be shifting...but when you get into the 80's it is even harder to find stuff that has the collectability.

 

 

 

1 and 2, There are plenty of reasonably priced cars out there. Maybe, not your dream car, maybe not perfect show cars. But you can find a nice driver condition car easily for under $10,000, maybe even under $6,000. 1970's and 1980's luxury cars are nice buys that can be found in this price range. If you are willing to get a 4 door instead of a 2 door hardtop or convertible, you can find plenty of 1940's to 1960's car in this price range too.

 

3 and 4, Yes, generally people generally collect what they grew up with. But that is not always the case. There are no too many people still around that would remember a 1930's or earlier car new. Yet they are still being collected.

 

5 and 6, True

 

Also, why do cars have to be modified to be "your style"? Actually most cars I see at cruise nights are modified, not stock. Very boring to see yet another flat black primer car with Chevy 350 and Ford 9" rear end with oversize wheels and flames. IMO, this makes the car less unique as people can do that to anything. My car is bright aqua with an aqua velour interior. Many people think it is custom paint and upholstery. Not only is it the original color, but it is the original paint and interior. Some people have even accused me of lying about this even the I have the factory brochure showing it this way. Another guy I know has a 1971 Buick Riviera. Some people think it has custom bodywork even though it is 100 percent stock because they have never seen anything like it before. So if you want something unique, buy something unique and leave it stock instead of doing all the typical mods that just make it look like all the rest

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On 11/10/2016 at 5:02 PM, The Continental said:

and a 1953 Chevrolet truck that is a project won't be worth a lot, but there are still a ton of people looking for them to put back on the road.

I wouldn't discredit the value of those trucks.  Especially in the North East.  You can view my thread on selling mine and see.  I had 3 guys with cash in hand and a trailer ready to roll when my truck hit the market.  The first guy took it and I pulled the bottom of 5 figures for a truck that was very solid and drove wonderfully,  but cosmetically needed to be completely redone. 

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52 minutes ago, auburnseeker said:

I wouldn't discredit the value of those trucks.  Especially in the North East.  You can view my thread on selling mine and see.  I had 3 guys with cash in hand and a trailer ready to roll when my truck hit the market.  The first guy took it and I pulled the bottom of 5 figures for a truck that was very solid and drove wonderfully,  but cosmetically needed to be completely redone. 

Here is a very busy shop that moves a ton of parts out the door. Bill has a pickers out west he buys from and then trucked to him in Ont.  Trucks of this vintage are in demand. Good parts have a good return on your investment like his cabs that bring up to $4,000.  http://www.billstruckshop.com/47-55used.html

Edited by Joe in Canada (see edit history)

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In my opinion I think anyone interested in owning collecting or driving old cars should not look at them as rising assets. Most old cars cost more than the owner will get when he sells it if everything is tallied into the cost of owning the car. Of course there are exceptions but not usually. The real value of the old car is in the fun of working on it and driving it and maintaining it. 

FRNT_PASS_SIDE_OCT_2016.JPG

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There is a business side to classic cars as well. If they were not assets you would not have classic car dealers, builders/restoration shops and auction houses. I have cars I own, and that is my hobby. I will loose all of my Labor when I go to sell. I know that, I enjoy the cars. And more people would if some things on the business side would be talked about. Fishing is a hobby, and there is a massive industry behind it as well. The classic\custom\street rod\hot rod industry is massive, and full of great people who do great things. You would not think twice about buying that new Cadillac for 50K if that is what you wanted. If you spent that same 50K on a 47 Cadillac convertible. I wonder which one will hold it's value????????? That is called a asset. This hobby\industry can only go up, as long as you have good people in it trying to make it better.

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To me the amazing thing is that in a world of change you can take a 1917 Ford and gas it up at a modern gas station. For under $2/gal. (this morning). That is the one parameter that makes the whole old car hobby possible. True, rubber items in fuel systems need to be changed for gasohol but they exist from Amazon even.

 

Did go to Cars and Coffee this morning and was the usual hoard of rice burners, a few Ferrari/Lamb/Rolls/Bentley. Oldest cars were a '60 dual quad 'vette followed by a 65 Corvair. My  '93 GTP seemed to be next, then a gaggle of Mustangs.

 

And around Orlando, that is the way the hobby is going.

 

 

12nov16].jpg

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I would rather have coffee at my house and look at my own cars, almost seems like sitting in a used car lot to me

Edited by John348 (see edit history)

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On November 11, 2016 at 5:58 PM, auburnseeker said:

I wouldn't discredit the value of those trucks.  Especially in the North East.  You can view my thread on selling mine and see.  I had 3 guys with cash in hand and a trailer ready to roll when my truck hit the market.  The first guy took it and I pulled the bottom of 5 figures for a truck that was very solid and drove wonderfully,  but cosmetically needed to be completely redone. 

 

I'm talking more in lines with a truck out of a field. Not sure what yours looked like, but what needs cosmetics to some could look perfect to someone else especially in regards to a 1953 Chevrolet truck. People are faking patina nowadays. 

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That's almost what mine looked like.  Faded paint,  a little surface rust,  tired chrome but fresh mechanics.

 

IMG_7697.JPG

IMG_7698.JPG

IMG_7699.JPG

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. People are faking patina nowadays. 

 

they are?  no way!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

oh the humanity...........................................................!

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It is funny that people will age or antique the finish on stuff to make it look older and more desirable. But they will also stretch their face to the point of the wind tunnel look, in a attempt to look younger.

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I'm an outsider but would like to give my perspective of your hobby and speak to possible lack of interest in the "younger" generation. I am 51, so not so young. 2.5 years ago, I had to take over responsibility for my father's collection. I live 2000+ miles away, but my father had Alzheimer's much worse than anyone realized and a 1 week visit turned into 2.5 years "so far". 

 

I have posted in various forums to ask for help. I have been surprised when I describe cars like a 1930 Model A, 1924 Model T, 1961 Rampside, 70 Bronco, etc., that there are always people who caution me that these are not even high "5 figure" vehicles. My gosh, they are beautiful and worth 10k+ and I have sold from 10K - 25K. If people in your hobby don't think these are "valuable" then this is surely a 1% hobby in my eyes. That is just my perspective and I don't mean any disrespect, but I can't even afford to keep these cars for free. I don't even have the space or money to store them. In fact, the cost of liquidating these cars is bankrupting me. This is not the same hobby I remember my father enjoying when I was young and went to car shows with him. Partly because a lot of us can't afford it, but also because the cars are now highly modified and it just doesn't feel like an "everyman" hobby to me anymore.

Edited by victorialynn2 (see edit history)
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