Where is our vintage car market headed???

[Joe in Canada]

I know we have hashed this topic in the past. But here is an article in the news stating Antique Road Show type shows may be causing a collapse in the antique furniture market. So is Barrett Jackson Auction type shows causing the price fluctuation in our car hobby?????? Any thoughts on this?    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3368294/TV-shows-ruined-market-antiques-Value-furniture-said-fallen-dramatically-programmes-make-items-common.html

[padgett]

My suspicion is that it is the fragmentation of the hobby  that is having the biggest effect. Secondary is that even to the start of the seventies, playing with cars was considered politically correct and a plethora of rallys, autocrosses, and shows that were essentially "run what you brung" without a focus on exactly the right hose clamps or spark plug wires.

 

Today there is a choice between "original", restored, and resto-mod. And then there is Craigslist (3/4 of my current herd came from CL but then the 88 Reatta is the closest to show-worthy however I consider the original wheels and tires unsafe so misses out on that).

 

So on the one hand, many "clubs" have become elitist, and trophies go to the ones with the most money spent and not necessarily the most interesting. At one time the AACA was mainly interested in keeping old cars running.

 

One of the key points though is that youts today have many choices and cars are really far down on the list. Back in the day we had 3-5 TV channels and nothing was on. A long distance phone call was expensive (but directory assistance was free). Today there are a few thousand channels plus Netflix, Hulu, On-Demand, etc. Computers/smart phones/tablets are common and cheaper than a set of tires.

 

So at the same time costs of collecting are pushing kids away, electronic media is attracting them.

 

Result: the people who were enthusiasts back in the '70s still are but are aging. And many don't think much of the newer cars even if interesting (and CL has a number for under $10k - Saturn Sky/Pontiac Solstice are hitting that range now and if I wasn't fixated on sixes, could be tempted).

 

Is there an answer ? Dunno but while all of the TV shows are a piece of the issue, if anything they are generating interest and not the reverse, just not in most AACA classes.

[wayne sheldon]

The sad, ultimate, truth? It will go where the rest of our economy and markets go. Eventually, down the toilet if a lot of things do not change soon.

The two biggest issues.

 

One, Bad education. Most people are not taught history, or to think, or solve problems anymore. Schools and politicians do not want an educated public, because they would vote the thieves out.

 

Two, Our, and the world's, economies. Basically, good jobs. There are thousands of people today that are involved in the antique automobile hobby, but cannot earn enough on a regular job to invest much money into them. They struggle, they scrimp and save, and do their work themselves, because they don't have real work opportunities that can support a hobby. They do it because they are interested, and passionate enough to do so in spite of circumstances beyond their control.

Wherever our economies go? The hobbies will go. That means modern collector cars, muscle cars, my true antique automobiles, all other antiques, boating, arts and crafts, coins and stamps, travelling, pretty much any hobby other than camping. Most of us will be doing that every day just for a place to sleep.

 

Several thousand high end cars may survive because a few "one percenters" like them. But all the rest, will be scrapped for survival, or rot into the ground where they eventually wind up.

 

Note, I will not be offended if the moderators pull my posting. If a few people give me a "thumbs down" before they do that? So much the better. I deserve it for posting this here. 

Unfortunately, it is the truth. And it is central to the future of our hobby. After nearly fifty years in this hobby, I hate to think of a couple of my hundred year old cars becoming a burn pile for someone's heat in the winter.

Wayne Sheldon

Edited November 3, 2016 by wayne sheldon
Minor spelling errors, I try to not do that. (see edit history)

[nick8086]

The net working is not happen any more with the young collector..  No one wants to help.. 

 

The car collectors that did this have pasted away..

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 4, 2016 by nick8086 (see edit history)

[kgreen]

I'd guess that as the old cars become more and more scarce the hobby will go from an sport for every man to a sport of few men.

• Reduced inventory: I rroutinely read of people salvaging and restoring cars today that others said were parts cars 30 years ago.  
• Low cost: The abundant supply in the 50's along with low cost meant we had a hot rodder on every corner.
• High cost: If you don't do it yourself you pay high labor rates.
• Abundant repro parts: Suspect we are in a heyday bubble with a peak of activity caused by the number of old cars still available and the abundant supply of reproduction parts.
• Technology: cars that are currently built require a greater breadth of skill than similer mechanics of pre-80's cars. 
• Skills: Shop classes are no longer taught in schools, America is producing white collar skills not mechanical skills.
• Roads: Good heavens! I drove my vintage convertible on the highways around Atlanta last week and was scared to death in the congestion.

[mercer09]

I agree with Wayne-down the tubes.

 

 

I keep telling myself I need to sell a few, but I keep buying more.....................

 

so I guess in the end, I really dont give a rat's arse!

 

cant take money with you and my kids have no interest, so I guess there will be no inheritance. My way or the highway.

 

LOL!

[trimacar]

Always interesting to talk about the future of car collecting.

 

I remember an early discussion, in the 1980's, Bill Harrah died and the hotel chain was sold to Holiday Inn.  The original plan (by Holiday Inn) was to sell all the cars, 1500 or so, but there was such an uproar in the car community that they ended up donated a select number so that Reno could keep a car museum.

 

That said, there were still 1200 or so cars to sell.  People were both excited about the sales, and worried.....with that many cars coming on the market at one time, surely prices would plummet, and cars would become worth half or less than they were before.

 

Didn't happen, prices were strong (for the time) and values of cars weren't affected.

 

Overall, regardless of economy to this point, prices for good collectable cars has kept going up.  Sure, you can point to muscle car and Ferrari mania to see some highs and lows, but overall, good cars bring good prices.

 

If the economy really crashes, then the value of our cars will be the least of our worries.  If you sell your car or cars, fearing the worst, put all that money in the bank....well, guess what, if the cars become worthless, so does the money.

 

High value of collectable cars is great when you have them, bad when you want them, and meaningless if the economy really goes south.  Own them because you love and enjoy them, and never consider them investments.....

[Restorer32]

I hope Duesenbergs get cheap. I've always wanted one.

[Pomeroy41144]

7 hours ago, wayne sheldon said:

 

 

One, Bad education. Most people are not taught history, or to think, or solve problems anymore. Schools and politicians do not want an educated public, because they would vote the thieves out.

 

 

Wayne Sheldon

I am a university trained historian and history author. 

Students in grade school and high school are taught history (which are survey courses; also curriculum and text books are selected by local school boards). 

Sad Truth:  90% students HATE history.  They just are not interested. 

Edited November 3, 2016 by Pomeroy41144 (see edit history)

[60FlatTop]

As I have always told my children, that article was written by a professional author with the main goal of putting a bag of groceries on his table at the end of the week. It has the be salable. You can't make a living selling good news. Gloom and doom will always bring attention, controversy, and cash for a writer. That article is a year old as well.

 

A couple of nights ago I was watching the Antiques Road Show. At the end I told my wife "You know, those antique collectors have to gather up a lot of junk to do as well as I have with old car stuff."

 

Cars for toys are a hobby of the wealthy. The level of wealth one has dictates the car and condition. Today wealth is best defined as the extra money one has after paying for their basic needs. No wealth is being fully supported and dependent on some institution. Everyone else is wealthy. At least once today you will hear "the wealthy" singled out as a group, probably a target group. If you can afford an old car you are one of the wealthy. And that is a dying group, mostly due to their age.

 

Young people are investing in their future, not our past. There is a current spurt in arm chair car collecting, but sales of mid and low range collector cars are on a slide. The cars that have always made me happy are becoming more attainable or going unsold. I plan to cash in on that over the next 20, possibly 30 years. And have no doubt of a coming buyer's market. It is not the price, it is the discretionary money that will affect the hobby in the future. Those Duesenbergs were $400 cars in the early to mid 1950's, but guys were bringing home $40 per week. In the '50's guys were pooling their money to buy an antique car for $50. That could happen again except for our litigious society.

 

I got out of the Navy in 1971 and production jobs were paying just under $2.00 per hour to start. Luckily, the Navy didn't give me the journalist rate I signed up for and I ran power plants instead (more cars).

 

It all happens in cycles and the older you get the more predicable cycles and trends get...if you have been paying attention.

Bernie

[JerryVan]

People have speculated on the "future of the hobby" ever since the hobby existed. Everything from blind optimism to gloom and doom has been put forth. Guess what, there's still a car hobby today, in spite of all predictions. I suspect there will be one tomorrow, and the next day too.

[F&J]

38 minutes ago, Pomeroy41144 said:

I am a university trained historian and history author. 

Students in grade school and high school are taught history (which are survey courses; also curriculum and text books are selected by local school boards). 

Sad Truth:  90% students HATE history.  They just are not interested. 

We are very off the topic, but....

I spent the first 45+ years in a historic area, and never once was taught, or told, of the very historic "Connecticut Path", first travelled in 1638 by colonists from Boston, to make new settlements in central CT.  I know that school teachers are forced to stick to a predetermined "US History" curriculum but I am shocked that none of my grade "1 through 12" teachers never once even "mentioned" that it came right through our town.  That is proof that the teaching profession is very flawed.  A class field trip would have been " very interesting" to students.   I only found out about the Path on the internet in my very late 40s!
 

[Guest shinyhubcap]

1 hour ago, 60FlatTop said:

As I have always told my children, that article was written by a professional author with the main goal of putting a bag of groceries on his table at the end of the week. It has the be salable. You can't make a living selling good news. Gloom and doom will always bring attention, controversy, and cash for a writer. That article is a year old as well.

 

A couple of nights ago I was watching the Antiques Road Show. At the end I told my wife "You know, those antique collectors have to gather up a lot of junk to do as well as I have with old car stuff."

 

Cars for toys are a hobby of the wealthy............Those Duesenbergs were $400 cars in the early to mid 1950's,....

 

 

To put that into perspective...how much in today's money was that $400 ?  

 

I would make a rough guess and say "multiply that by 18".    If that is a reasonable guess in comparative purchasing power, you come out with about 3 times what a top-of-the-line new Buick or Oldsmobile went out the door for.

 

So - what has really changed ?

[poci1957]

36 minutes ago, 60FlatTop said:

Cars for toys are a hobby of the wealthy. The level of wealth one has dictates the car and condition. Today wealth is best defined as the extra money one has after paying for their basic needs. No wealth is being fully supported and dependent on some institution. Everyone else is wealthy. At least once today you will hear "the wealthy" singled out as a group, probably a target group. If you can afford an old car you are one of the wealthy. And that is a dying group, mostly due to their age.

 

Young people are investing in their future, not our past. There is a current spurt in arm chair car collecting, but sales of mid and low range collector cars are on a slide. The cars that have always made me happy are becoming more attainable or going unsold. I plan to cash in on that over the next 20, possibly 30 years.

Bernie

 

I was all set to argue about Bernie's "hobby of the wealthy" comment but read on that he means not "1%" wealthy but "extra money" wealthy which I would agree with.  I think this would cover most of us here as middle class hobbyists with a little disposable income or maybe a 60 something retiree with a little "mad money" available.  Often this lifestyle path began in the 1970s or 80s with a middle class job involving paid health insurance, pension plans and other benefits, meaning that young people were establishing stable households earlier--not today.  Even beyond the money antiques, collectibles and old cars are a big burden for anyone who may have to move and I think white collar young people today have to remain mobile until they are more settled (assuming that ever happens). 

 

The article is incorrect about the TV shows killing demand for antique furniture or collectibles, that market is dying more because it requires a "big house" lifestyle that todays young people are not interested in pursuing due to cost and other pressures.  Many will eventually buy houses and cars, have kids and live in the suburbs but they will remain less interested in sinking funds into antiques and collectibles of all kinds, especially expensive stuff, and forget big old brown furniture.  I am Generation X (age 40-50) and my generation often likes this stuff and watching it on TV but few are interested in, say, sinking $3000 into an old Texaco sign to hang on the wall of the garage.  I am more happy to just have the garage, Todd C       

[Matt Harwood]

The cars will continue to exist. Someone will own them. Always.

[Pomeroy41144]

48 minutes ago, F&J said:

We are very off the topic, but....

I spent the first 45+ years in a historic area, and never once was taught, or told, of the very historic "Connecticut Path", first travelled in 1638 by colonists from Boston, to make new settlements in central CT.  I know that school teachers are forced to stick to a predetermined "US History" curriculum but I am shocked that none of my grade "1 through 12" teachers never once even "mentioned" that it came right through our town.  That is proof that the teaching profession is very flawed.  A class field trip would have been " very interesting" to students.   I only found out about the Path on the internet in my very late 40s!
 

Okay, you are a local resident and you didn't know about it until you were in your 40s.  What makes you think a 20 something teacher, likely from somewhere else, would know about it?  The course of study is determined by your locally elected school board.  Complain to them, not the teachers.

 

Getting back to the future of the hobby.  Many young folks don't give a hoot about our old cars.  But they love GM muscle.  At a recent car show, only six or seven people bothered to look at my unrestored 1937 Ford (a time machine that was in storage for over 50 years and had last run during the Kennedy administration).  I recently pulled up to an area where there were numerous young people were milling around during an event; they never raised their heads from their devices.  They don't care about history (like many of the adults in their lives) and they don't care about our old cars. 

 

Edited November 3, 2016 by Pomeroy41144 (see edit history)

[Xander Wildeisen]

The car goes in the direction that it is steered. If the people who are at the top, want the hobby\industry to be about quality, innovation, creativity, prosperity, unity, advancement, achievement and productivity. You shall have it. But as long as there is an appetite in the market for stuff other then that. You fill in the ____________________________________________.

[poci1957]

12 minutes ago, Pomeroy41144 said:

They don't care about history (like many of the adults in their lives) and they don't care about our old cars. 

 

Unfortunate and usually true. 

 

I have often said that the problem with high school history is that a fascinating subject was hijacked by boring people.  But the upside is that I have seen those who were bored by dates and tests in school drawn into the stories by good TV documentaries or docudrama at the movies.  At its best history is a good story well told and that can interest people in their adulthood once they get past the dry lectures of school days, Todd C   

[46 woodie]

Joe, the antique car hobby is cyclical. I'll give you an example. The first year I went to Hershey was 1968. I still have the program from the event. Model A Fords were popular then and the program lists over 200 Model A's. This year there were about a dozen Model A's. Very few people are now restoring early cars such as Model A's. It seems people now want Camaros, Mustangs and cars of this sort. I can only hope that those 200 Model A's from 1968 will some day reappear and be owned by the grandchildren of the people that owned them in the '60s and start a new cycle. Also, as I'm sure you know, it's not cheap to restore an antique car. With this economy and high unemployment, restoring and owning an antique car is the last thing many people are thinking about.

[plymouthcranbrook]

Regarding old "stuff" Ask any younger person(40 or so) what they are going to do with their parent's "stuff".  8 out of 10 times the answer will be: Get rid of it. Seems the young do not want to fill houses or garages with things to look at or impress their friends with. If they want anything, its their own stuff. Under the heading"No sense of History"  My wife works at a E-Bay service business and is always talking about the old folks bringing in stuff to sell cause their Kids don't want it.  And often times, no one else does either.

[poci1957]

1 minute ago, plymouthcranbrook said:

Seems the young do not want to fill houses or garages with things to look at or impress their friends with. If they want anything, its their own stuff. 

 

My wife works at a E-Bay service business and is always talking about the old folks bringing in stuff to sell cause their Kids don't want it.  And often times, no one else does either.

 

Yup, just as I said.  However, parents that are often very offended by this should be reminded that it is not that the kids don't love them, they just don't love their stuff

[alsancle]

39 minutes ago, Matt Harwood said:

The cars will continue to exist. Someone will own them. Always.

 

This was always my perspective.  But now I believe the lower end cars will eventually get parted out or crushed as they stop running and the cost to get them going doesn't make sense.   The everyday mechanical skills that everybody had 50 years ago are diminishing greatly in younger generations.

 

As somebody that gets about a dozen different club newsletters and publications every month I will say it it is sobering looking at the pictures of the awards banquets.

 

Btw,  you guys probably realize this but when somebody says 1% people think of a guy in a private jet (which is really the .0001%).    I'm willing to bet that 1/2 the people in the 1% don't know they are there.   If you want to talk in terms of world population,  75% of the people on this forum are in the 1%.

[Larry Schramm]

7 minutes ago, alsancle said:

As somebody that gets about a dozen different club newsletters and publications every month I will say it it is sobering looking at the pictures of the awards banquets.

 

Btw,  you guys probably realize this but when somebody says 1% people think of a guy in a private jet (which is really the .0001%).    I'm willing to bet that 1/2 the people in the 1% don't know they are there.   If you want to talk in terms of world population,  75% of the people on this forum are in the 1%.

 

On the awards and banquets, I believe that the focus on judging and 400 pt cars is driving the younger crowd out of the hobby because all they see are signs that say "look but don't touch", "Keep Back", and so on.  The signs and the pursuit of "perfection" which the younger crowd can see is a money issue just walk away.

 

If you want the younger crowd to get interested in the old car hobby, then you need to drive them and teach them how to drive them.  As someone on this forum says "If you don't drive them, then you might as well collect clocks"  I totally agree.  I take everyone for a ride in my old truck that would like a ride.

 

As for the amount of money for the hobby, driving and maintaining an old car is expensive.  Trying to make it a 400pt trailer queen can be crazy money.

 

As for the "1%" you might be surprised of the typical demographic profile.  I would recommend getting the book "The Millionaire Next Door" and read it.  The most important thing to be well financially is to only have one spouse in your lifetime.  Divorce can make you poor very quickly.  That includes all parties except the lawyers.

[F&J]

1 hour ago, Pomeroy41144 said:

What makes you think a 20 something teacher, likely from somewhere else, would know about it.  The course of study is determined by your locally elected school board.  Complain to them, not the teachers

and reading between your lines.....  It seems SO odd, that a person who chose History Teaching as a career, never took the time to learn the "local history" and then use that as a valuable tool, to stimulate interest in their "bored" students?   I find this lack of "personal attention to details" to be a root problem.    .A teacher would not get into trouble with the Board by mentioning the "CT Path" while covering "the preplanned curriculum on Colonial history".

 

1 hour ago, Pomeroy41144 said:

At a recent car show, only six or seven people bothered to look at my unrestored 1937 Ford (a time machine that was in storage for over 50 years and had last run during the Kennedy administration).  I recently pulled up to an area where there were numerous young people were milling around during an event; they never raised their heads from their devices.  They don't care about history (like many of the adults in their lives) and they don't care about our old cars

I can't comment on your local area or it's mindsets... but when I take my modified prewar out, that I just finished in September, I am floored by the waves/smiles/comments it gets.Young or old people.  I now combine my two hobby's, other one is Metal Detecting for 1700's artifacts, and using my finds to "learn" if a site is old, or not.  Yesterdays Photo below.  My Detector sitting next to car on ground.

 

This unusually large and dead level field a few miles from Nathan Hales Homestead(first / third pics at "Hale compound")

 

I was able to "learn" that it is a"modern" manmade field from the total lack of artifacts, and lack of typical stone walls.  I will research it more, but I believe it was probably a Depression-Era CCC or WPA project since it is public land.

 

I like and own stock original prewar cars just as much, but I also like being able to drive in our faster era.

 

 

 

Edited November 3, 2016 by F&J (see edit history)

[Pomeroy41144]

FJ.  I know I would surely stop to look at your cabriolet. 

 

I live in the Chicago area. Depends on the show, but most people walk right past my Ford at the cruise nights.  I don't usually sit by my car if I do cruise nights (seldom anymore), I would be busy looking at all the other cars.  But I sometimes sit next to the car parked ahead or behind so I can hear what folks say about my car.  I estimated one evening in Whiting, Indiana, cruise night, roughly 10% of the people walking past stopped to look at my car.   That means 90% walked past.  It is not a convertible, has no SBC or crazy big wheels.  Just a black fordor sedan.  Not as appealing as a 68 Chevelle or 66 Pontiac.  Suits me though.  To each his own I guess.  The hobby will survive. 

[60FlatTop]

Sometimes it is not the car that young people show no interest in. When the old fart that gets out of the car has this expression they aren't going to want anything to do with him or his car. And you can be sure he is going to find exactly the reception he is looking for.

I don't think there is anyone who hasn't seen him and maybe some catch a glimpse of him in the mirror. He was around in 1959 when I got into the hobby and he is still out there. HE hurts the hobby more than any TV show, auction, or anything else.

He told me how stupid I was when I was doing my best.

He told me my car was too new in 1978.

He left my '39 Buick cylinder head and bag of new valves outside in the rain when he said he would do a valve job.

 

If anyone is worried about the hobby you don't have to go far to find him. And you better do everything you can to make sure you are not him.

 

Geez, I better make sure no one thinks that's me!

"Hey, kid, want a ride in the bucket?"

 

Edited November 3, 2016 by 60FlatTop (see edit history)

[F&J]

12 minutes ago, Pomeroy41144 said:

your cabriolet. 

 Mine was a hacked up 5-winow coupe shell that was missing the entire roof,  I made something useful from it.

12 minutes ago, Pomeroy41144 said:

Just a black fordor sedan.  Not as appealing as a 68 Chevelle or 66 Pontiac.  Suits me though.  To each his own I guess. 

 

12 minutes ago, Pomeroy41144 said:

90% walked past.  It is not a convertible, has no SBC or crazy big wheels.  Just a black fordor sedan.  .  Suits me though.  To each his own I guess.  The hobby will survive. 

It must be your area, it would be very appreciated here.

Edited November 3, 2016 by F&J (see edit history)

[padgett]

Agree it will survive, just be different. We are going through a period of change and suspect current restomods have the same philosophy as the bulk of the member's cars in the '30s. Heck I remember my GTO (not the Judge) being too new for POCI so the GTOAA was formed. OTOH all of my cars have radials and are equipped for hands-free telephony. They also have modern (bright) headlights and rear sway bars & only the Judge has only front disk brakes. All of the others including my tow car have 4 wheel disks.

 

So guess I have always been a bit out of step, my cars are ones I enjoy driving first and are capable of long distances in a single bound. (Here 50 miles is just a daily grind & anything Before Disney is "historic").

 

Finally until the 70s and the 55mph speed limit, foreign cars (except the beetle) were not common and collecting usually meant one of the big three. Dealers routinely kept parts for cars back to the 50s. A dozen different oil and air filters fit 90% of the cars on the road. Today we have a lot more variety.

 

So will never be the same as when I was growing up and wasn't even then (the Jag XK-150s - triple carb/4WDB) was a $1500 car on its best day. Paid 2/3 that for a B/P FI split window. ). Biggest difference is today, 400HP is just a starting point. And that's net.

[trimacar]

Let's look at this in tier levels, based on units needed to acquire a certain vehicle.

 

8 figures....Cars in this class, are in a class of their own, and the people who buy them are too....there's appreciation for works of art, which these cars are, but one has to be able to write such a check with little affect to the bank account

 

7 figures....There'll always be "pride of ownership", so the high end cars will always have a home with the affluent, some who love them, some who appreciate history, some just keeping up with the (wealthy) Joneses

 

6 figures....some very successful people here, who, as in 7 above, may love them, or love the effect that ownership has on other people, still rarified air for most of us hobbyists....As a side note, I've also seen people buying cars in this range who were fairly average Joes, middle to upper middle class, may have had some cars for a long time that were well bought then sold and borrowed to get that one car they'd been thinking about for ages....for those guys, it's love and family support and the pleasure of owning a great car they've admired for years....

 

5 figures....well, going to split this one

     -high 5 figures, see 6 above, or someone who just absolutely loves a certain car and stretches to acquire same (see 5, just not quite as fluid with assets), we're getting down to enthusiasts willing to risk some serious bucks (to them) to own a piece of history

     -low 5 figures, well, now we're in the range of just about anyone who has a steady job and owns a home.  Just about anyone (with those two stipulations) can come up with low 5 figures if they want to, and they want a collectable car.  This range is probably 80% of more of all collectable cars, so a very important part of the hobby. Very important....

 

4 figures....some nice low end collectables here, lots of fun for little money....and if you think you need to spend a lot to have a lot of fun, look at Model T guys, and the tours they do, and the MTFCA forums.  Tons of fun on the cheap.

 

3 figures...forget it.  Project cars in the 3 range, parts cars or rough,  as are some in the 4 and 5 range, and unless highly desirable, with the cost of restoration, they have a hard time finding a new home.  The cost of restoration these days, even doing it yourself, put's these cars in a "labor of love" category.

 

So yes, there's a market out there, and it still seems healthy, within limits.  Time will change things, of course, and I do believe that right now, there are a LOT of large collections that are owned by fellows that are well up in years, and unless they make arrangements to put cars in a museum, the next 10 to 15 years will see massive amounts of heavy iron hitting the market.

 

 

 

 

 

[carbking]

You guys can paint gloom and doom until you are blue in the face. Having been a vendor in the old car (truck, tractor, etc.) hobby for the last 42 years, I can tell you we are busier than ever!!!!!

 

Just had a 26-year-old call from a software company and tell me he could jazz up my website so I could double my business. My comment, can you clone me so I can take care of it. He didn't understand (or didn't want to understand) that business is great!

 

So where does that leave the hobby??? Don't know. In college ESP-101, I dropped the crystal ball on my instructors toe, and broke them both

 

But we won't improve the hobby by gloom and doom. Help a young person get involved, and that grows the hobby.

 

Jon.

[wayne sheldon]

Guess I am not the only one sticking my neck out. But A couple points I would like to expand upon.

As for younger people getting into this hobby. The model T forum I spend way too much time on (but I do enjoy it) almost always welcomes younger people. In the past couple years, we have gotten several new regulars that are in their 30s or even younger. A few of them are in their teens, and still in high school. They are interested, and struggling to work on model Ts. The biggest problems they face, are poor job opportunities. There are people out there that are interested, even without proper education. One can only wonder how many more would be interested if history and personal responsibility were properly taught.

 

The percenters. There has always been a wealthy class. Probably will be as long as humanity exists. That is not a bad thing, in any way. What is bad, is the level of separation between the wealthiest, and those that can barely survive on a regular basis. Thirty years ago, I had a young family, worked hard, was paid well, struggled a bit, and rented a home. According to statistics I read at that time, I was near the bottom of the top ten percent.

Today, I was forced to retire early a few years ago (because I objected to my bosses committing felonies to steal taxpayers money), in spite of years of cutting edge technology experience, there are very few opportunities for pay above minimum wage. We bought a house about twenty years ago, but still owe a large mortgage for which I pay less than I could rent anything more than a small apartment today. I am stuck here. I support my wife, and myself. We scrimp and save, but struggle to put food on the table about one week out of every month. According to statistics I read a few months ago, we are now in the top five percent. How can we have gone half way up that top percentile ladder, and be so much worse off than we were thirty years ago.

 

Every economy, the world's, the nation's, our hobby's, NEEDS a solid foundation, a middle class, that can by shear numbers spend more than the top one percent can on the lesser extras of life. My model Ts will always be favored by hard working blue collar types. And they will end up rotting in a field if the blue collar types cannot afford to care for them.

Wayne Sheldon

[poci1957]

2 hours ago, 60FlatTop said:

Sometimes it is not the car that young people show no interest in. When the old fart that gets out of the car has this expression they aren't going to want anything to do with him or his car.

 

He was around in 1959 when I got into the hobby and he is still out there. HE hurts the hobby more than any TV show, auction, or anything else.  He told me how stupid I was when I was doing my best.

He told me my car was too new in 1978.

 

If anyone is worried about the hobby you don't have to go far to find him. And you better do everything you can to make sure you are not him.

 

Once again Bernie is right, this guy he describes is a repellant to young people.  He was there when I was a teenager and is still there in my late 40s, arrogant, full of bravado, dismissive of others to bolster his own weak ego.  And in my world he is not an AACA purist either, he is more often a graybeard street rod or 1960s muscle car guy.  He will soon pay for his ways when he needs to sell his old car(s) and has no buyers since he and his buddies helped run off the next two generations. 

[poci1957]

26 minutes ago, carbking said:

You guys can paint gloom and doom until you are blue in the face. Having been a vendor in the old car (truck, tractor, etc.) hobby for the last 42 years, I can tell you we are busier than ever!!!!!

 

Glad to hear it Jon, who is the customer nowadays?  DIY gearheads?  Restoration shops?  Authentic restorers or modified?  Would be interested if you know, thanks, Todd C 

[padgett]

Recently drove the GTP to the local Wally world, I always park in automotive because is much easier & can check out there.

 

One of the mechs came out when he heard it and was fascinated by the five speed & afterwards showed me the 72 Nova he was working on.

 

Local Cars and Coffee, when I go any of my cars are usually the only one there. Hoards of late Mustangs and Rice Burners (few "not for sale in the US"), some BMW/Lambo, and other exotics.

 

Personally have never paid even low five figures except for a new car (for family or towing). Lots of interesting cars in the 4 figure range. Only one of mine that was even above mid ($6500) was the Crossfire (& required the most work to be comfortable for me).

 

Point is that if those here mostly eliminate the 25 year old+ now cars of the end of the century and those selling on CL for under $5k that are interesting, decent, and presentable, then I can understand the perception that the hobby is declining.

 

Have never tried but suspect the Crossie can outrun and outcorner my Judge. Is just a better car but serves a different purpose.

[MochetVelo]

I don't see how the Antiques Roadshow-type programs diminish values. They always seem to appraise things on the high end as they go on about the attributes of each item. EBay has certainly affected the collector world, however. Common items once thought rare find their true value there.

 

I'm curious about the electric car takeover which I keep hearing is 20 years away. How long will gasoline be commonly available after the electrics dominate the market?

 

Phil

Edited November 3, 2016 by MochetVelo (see edit history)

[carbking]

1 hour ago, poci1957 said:

 

Glad to hear it Jon, who is the customer nowadays?  DIY gearheads?  Restoration shops?  Authentic restorers or modified?  Would be interested if you know, thanks, Todd C 

 

Todd - we sell to everyone. Lots of gearheads, several restoration shops that have been using our services for lots of years, and lots of FLAPS that are ordering parts for their customers..

 

As to restorers or those doing modifications, probably fairly evenly split. You know from my posts here there are lots of older carburetors that I consider totally unsafe for a vehicle that will actually be used. So there are customers that replace an unsafe carb with one that is much safer. There are also lots of customers that do reversible performance upgrades. An example would be a customer replacing a single two-barrel on a late '40's Buick with a modified Buick compound carburetion set-up. The modification involves changing the primary/secondary carbs with 2 identical carbs, the progressive linkage with straight linkage, and calibrating the new carbs for the engine. All very reversible should the customer decide to take it back to stock.

 

We also do parts for older trucks, tractors, boats, etc. What make of vehicle would you think is our most popular make? Something of which there are many such as Ford or Chevy? Or something more exotic like Duesenberg, Auburn, or Wills Ste. Clair? Well, if you guessed any of these, you would be wrong. Only if you guessed Caterpillar would you be correct.

 

The interesting thing is that it seems ever 10 years or so, we get a bunch of customers that are playing with there first old car, truck, or tractor. You can always tell, by the questions that they ask. We are going through that cycle right now.

 

This weeks customer base includes everything from a "period" carburetor for a homemade car with a stationary engine that is being as closely as possible as to how it was built in 1906 to a customer with a 1973 Corvette that wanted a repair kit with a leather accelerator pump because he has replaced the pump 3 times in the last 6 weeks, as he lives where he has to buy ethanol-laced fuel. Every day is interesting.

 

Bottom line, I have no knowledge of how complete cars are selling, or their prices, but the component business is very good.

 

Jon.

Edited November 3, 2016 by carbking (see edit history)

[Xander Wildeisen]

7 hours ago, alsancle said:

 

This was always my perspective.  But now I believe the lower end cars will eventually get parted out or crushed as they stop running and the cost to get them going doesn't make sense.   The everyday mechanical skills that everybody had 50 years ago are diminishing greatly in younger generations.

 

As somebody that gets about a dozen different club newsletters and publications every month I will say it it is sobering looking at the pictures of the awards banquets.

 

Btw,  you guys probably realize this but when somebody says 1% people think of a guy in a private jet (which is really the .0001%).    I'm willing to bet that 1/2 the people in the 1% don't know they are there.   If you want to talk in terms of world population,  75% of the people on this forum are in the 1%.

One can look at Cuba and see that the love for lower end cars will not go away. You see car lovers doing what ever they can to keep their collector cars on the road. What we have parted out and crushed here, they would love to be able to get a hold of.

[edinmass]

Is the hobby going under? Just try and get you car in a decent shop for restoration. Your gonna wait a LONG time. The several shops I deal with have more work than they can handle, and most are very picky about the customer and their cars. Experienced shops know they have to handhold the newbies, and many rather not make the effort. They are so busy with work from long established customers they tend to shy away from new blood. The biggest issue I struggle with is time related issues, most people want to have their car serviced faster than is reasonable. Outside suppliers and speciality service shops are running way behind. I needed a very complicated radiator recored for a car that won't be installed for 18 to 20 months, we sent it out this week. Try and buy decent leather today that is typical of the 20's and 30's, it's almost impossible. Just getting materials lined up can be a full time job on some restorations. The hobby will continue to change over time, as it has for the last 45 years I have been in it. I think high point judging and restoration is now on the down slope, driving and club touring are on the rise. The big squeeze will be in the middle of the road cars, hard to get parts, and can't justify the repairs and restoration costs. The Duesenbergs will always be persued as well as the Model T for its ease of service/repair/costs advantages. Stop worrying about it, you can't take your money with you and none of us is getting out of here alive. Every dollar I spend on my cars is returned to me five times over, maybe ten. Yup, I AM HAVING THAT MUCH FUN! Are you?

[nick8086]

Tuesday, November 8

 

This  is very hard to post on this until after this date...

 

 

 

[Larry Schramm]

9 hours ago, mike6024 said:

I still would like to see someone save this one. It has been for sale for a very longggggg time. And the ad says it is a good HotRod candidate! Makes me curious because it does not seem overpriced.

 

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/cto/5854005296.html

 

Nice looking car, but the issue on the price is that it is not running.  Not running is the great unknown.