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Car hobby predictions for 2017


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Car hobby predictions for 2017?

 

While the Toyota 2000GT, the Mazda Cosmo and the Toyota FJ40 Land Cruiser really haven’t climbed in value, they’ve become an almost expected part of any international sale.

 

I posted on this before . all the old cars are owned by guys over 65... 85% of them..

 

Who will be the next buyers... in 2017-2020??

 

The rare stuff will always sale...

 

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2015/12/classic-sports-car-bubble-burst/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by nick8086 (see edit history)
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Prices go up? Prices go down? Or they stay the same. Who cares, if you collect what you like, it should make no difference to you. This is a hobby, have fun.. I have made huge scores, and taken beatings on cars, fifty years from now I will be dead, and it will not mater one bit if I died rich or poor, it will only matter that I lived good life and tried to make the world better place than how I found it. I'll spend my day tomorrow the same way as today, cleaning a car for hours on end so I can drive it on the field at Pebble Beach........is there any high better that that if you have gasoline in your blood? I think not. Here is a shot of me detailing the car this afternoon. Cheers! Ed

image.jpeg

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20 hours ago, nick8086 said:

From another web site:

 

Classic cars, however, have outpaced all other assets, with an average appreciation in value of a whopping 490 percent.

 

Sorry, Nick, I disagree with the assertion. Classic cars are not an investment, and have not appreciated 490%. Maybe if you cherry-picked specific cars someone got for free and made a profit on. Cars are an expense.

 

It was fun to read through some of the magazine, though. I've never heard of it, but it seems to be a publication for what they call in the U.K. the leisure class. It mentioned one place you can get a gold watch for $500,000, or $800,000 in Platinum. It talked about how there used to be only 8,000,000 millionaires in the world and now there are 13-point-something million millionaires. Some of the stories talked about "UHNW people" a minority group that was new to me, but I learned about how many live in what cities. I need to have 30 million bucks to be an Ultra High Net Worth individual. I don't think these guys are the ones to advise you on what cars are worth. I see magazines like this as a good place for help on real estate, jewelry, stocks, and other recreational spending.

Edited by jeff_a (see edit history)
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On 8/20/2016 at 1:19 AM, nick8086 said:

From another web site:

Classic cars, however, have outpaced all other assets, with an average appreciation in value of a whopping 490 percent.

https://www.luxurydaily.com/real-estate-and-classic-cars-will-hold-value-in-tumultuous-economy/

 

I, too, think that statistic--almost a 6-fold increase 

in classic car prices from 2005 to 2015--is preposterous.

It certainly wasn't taken over the entire antique and collectible

car market.  At that rate, it would be difficult for newcomers

to enter the hobby, and we'd have something else to be concerned about.

 

That article was clearly written by someone who knows little about old cars,

and who quoted a statistic blindly.

Thank goodness that old cars remain affordable.  We can all buy another one!

Edited by John_S_in_Penna (see edit history)
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As a side to the original posting, when you look at the ebay listing above for the GTV the bids jump from $10,000 straight to $28,000.  How does that happen?  I thought that even if you bid $28,000 or whatever the bid would only jump to $10,100.00

Edited by DavidAU (see edit history)
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"Anybody can write anything and get it published somewhere."  Goes right along with "the media is always wrong". This is just something most here can understand. There is always someone out to separate others from their money. The later generation rich just do not care. "Pet rocks" was a good example.

 

What I am seeing is a certain fragmentation of the hobby where once there was only "original" or  "restored as original" for the big bucks, now there a premiums for many things:

- unrestored "barn find"

- mechanical restoration (get it running).

- celebrity cars

- nice originals (garage kept since new and driven occasionally)

- resto-mods (modern drivetrain with AC & a classic body) - seems to be bringing as much as a restored original

- old cars (once the staple at local shows). The "driver" class.

 

In the last century there was just 1-6. Now there are many distinctions.

Edited by padgett (see edit history)
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On August 20, 2016 at 1:10 AM, nick8086 said:

Car hobby predictions for 2017?

 

While the Toyota 2000GT, the Mazda Cosmo and the Toyota FJ40 Land Cruiser really haven’t climbed in value, they’ve become an almost expected part of any international sale.

 

I posted on this before . all the old cars are owned by guys over 65... 85% of them..

 

Who will be the next buyers... in 2017-2020??

 

The rare stuff will always sale...

 

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2015/12/classic-sports-car-bubble-burst/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nick,

My take on it is there are so many facets to this hobby, (one reason I always stay with it).

You have the nostalgia person who wants the car from their youth, the history buff who loves everything mechanical and likes to tinker (me), the person inspired by design in a time period.

As long as vehicles continue to be a big part of our lives I don't see the hobby fading. Yes the majority of us are older but for me that is because I couldn't afford to be heavily involved until my kids were grown and the house was paid off. I remember in the 70's going to car shows and thinking how old the car owners were, so I'm sure it's been like this for some time.

The cars will change but the hobby will live on.

The high end of this hobby that everyone writes about will always be a different universe. Most of them just have a lot more disposable income and a story about a 20 million dollar car is more newsworthy than a 20 thousand dollar car. I have tracked more than a few cars that sold at auction only to sell again for tens of thousands less a couple years later, and of course you see just the reverse as well.

I am not in this hobby to make money off a car or bike but I have a better argument to my partner in life if I can say I did when I tell her I'm buying another one!

 

Chuck

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I found this on line :

It’s no secret the percentage of new vehicles sold to 18- to 34-year-olds has significantly dropped over the past few years. Many argue this is the result of a weak economy, that the idea of making a large car investment and getting into more debt on top of college loans is too daunting for them.

 

With my old stuff - It is the cost of the parts. If I can find one to put on the car... 

 

Still looking for this part... 4 years.. sent off twice it just came back..."brake liability"

013(3).JPG

Edited by nick8086 (see edit history)
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" the percentage of new vehicles sold to 18- to 34-year-olds has significantly dropped over the past few years"

Could as well be that most late model cars are little different from new ones and are a lot cheaper to buy. During the last decade there were a lot of major improvements made but there is little difference in most 2016s from 2010s. Biggest change I see is in Fords particularly as more EcoBoosts come on line.

 

Of course the demographics here may be different since is the rental car capital of the world and late models are constantly being dumped on the market.

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There was a guy over at my neighbors house last night with a new Dodge pick up.

I noticed that it had dual exhaust and it was running.

I presumed it to be a gas engine.

It was dead quiet and had absolutely no diesel smell.

I don't really follow the new stuff much but the guy told me its Dodge's new diesel engine and he gets 30 MPG.

Not bad !!

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Old cars, and collector cars in general are a tough sell to the younger audience from my experience.  My 23 yr old son is a car guy.  He appreciates classics but his dream cars are more modern like Mercedes Benz and Audi and the like.  Most of his friends know nothing about cars except you put gas in them and call AAA when they don't go.

 

In my neighborhood where most young people are in their 40s to early 50s, none are car guys.  They have Honda, Audi, BMW, VW and the like.  Its difficult to even get them excited about telling me the details of their car when they get a new one.  It's a boring place for sure for a car guy.

 

Is there a future for the hobby?  Yes, but probably more towards investment options that driving cars.   Is anyone buying stockpiles of 1980s and 1990s parts to sell at Hershey in 2030?  Probably not.

 

Terry

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Does not surprise me that the 18-34 year olds are not buying cars in volume. 

 

Let's think about this. Playing with cars is not for the faint of heart or wallet.  It is a relatively expensive hobby. 

You need a decent income to do this stuff. 

 

If you went to college the average student graduates with something between $27,000.00 and $40,000.00 in debt. (depending on the data that you are reading at the time)  That takes out about 1/4 of the population in that demographic with debt.

 

Then they are trying to start out and maybe buy a house, get married, have kids, etc..... the money sucking machine is for most everything before an old car unless you were born into an old car family.

 

I think that group might come into the hobby later in life, but it depends on the economy, interests, etc. when the get some disposable income.

Edited by Larry Schramm (see edit history)
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re: diesels in general. (ref post 11)

Ever since the BMW turbo diesel of 1984, they have been constantly improving and in 2016 are at a peak. At the same time cost of diesels vs gas engines are skyrocketing in the US, both in initial cost and in fuel (today in central Florida, the price of diesel is running about a quarter (10%) higher than 87 PON).

 

What is coming on quietly is direct injection boosted gasoline engines (Ford Ecoboost, Hyundai Turbo Veloster) that can provide diesel qualities and a lower cost per mile, both initial and ongoing. With VVT i&e 90% of the torque peak from 1900 to 6500 rpm is common and lower peak torque is made up by higher rpm and lower gearing. Looking at total cost per mile and for passenger cars gas makes more sense than diesel. And the infrastructure s already here.

 

So the good news for the AACA is that gasoline is liable to remain available for a long time yet.

 

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I often think about where the hobby is going.

Our older generation came up with cars that were fairly simple and anybody with some mechanical ability could work on them

Now a 25 YO car (vintage status) is a 1991 and is fuel injected and computerized. I don't know much about these newer classics and since they are not  going to be able to be maintained by shade tree guys.

I don't think that they are producing anything these days that will be as collectable at 50 years old as there are now.

In 25 years a 50 year old car wont have mechanics with the tools or knowledge to service them.

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I remember when the first of the 1960's were beginning to get restored in the early 1990's. The old guys were bemoaning the complexity and expense. A white '60 Cadillac convertible showed up at one meet and a guy whispered "He has $115,000 in that car."

There is a topic in digital dashes in the Riviera section, I've seen some pretty "shade tree", maybe even back woods mechanics have detailed discussions on ECM's and code readers. Maybe it is not so much the new technology as it is the old guy's unwillingness to change that clouds these progressions.

There is a good chance that the United States is heading for a third world economy over the next ten or fifteen years, but the kids will fix that and be better for it. I am looking forward to seeing how they do it. I'll be the anachronistic old guy with the 75 year old car watching, helping where I can. Computers? They have been a part of my everyday work since 1974. All that takes is exposure.

 

It's all perspective; you know trains don't have to stop because it looks like the tracks come together.

Bernie

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Agree, grew up with computers and have been a interest and part of my life since was 11.  About the time I discovered Road and Track, Sports Car Illustrated, and Car & Driver. Still think of a BMW as "The Best Sports Sedan Under $2,000".

 

Just now can combine both hobbies.

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How much knowledge does it take for triage. Gas buggies both old and new need three things: Fire, Fuel, and Air. If gas goes to varnish you just have 8 injectors to clean instead of eight jets (I like dual quads). You use the same gauge whether fuel pressure is 3-5 psi or 38-42.

 

I find it easier to diagnose a computer car than non but my Judge will still run after an EMP.

 

Only real difference is old cars have distributers and few carry a matchbook (use cover to set points). I do use platinum plugs in everything.

 

Also the only real difference between the Jeep and the Judge AC is that one uses R12 and the other R134A. Pressures are similar.

 

So may be odd, but I see little real difference between a five year old car and one that is 50 (well goat is 46), just I can ask the five year old how  it feels with my cell phone.

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Suspect with a mill, lathe, and brake plus a few other tools you could make almost anything. Have most at home. Only real issue is that the quality is liable to be better than the original. Sand or lost wax casting is not hard.

 

Just needs a few people who know what a ball pein hammer is for.

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The builders of the first cars planted seeds for their parts. I guess a little dirt and the right botany knowledge you're good to go.

 

Or one could just make what they need. I have been toying with the idea of buying a '60's Lincoln convertible. I used to service one a couple of decades ago. If I owned one I would probably make a solid state controller for the top. I am surprised no one has.

 

I have two computer driven cars I am keeping as collector cars, one an '80's, one a '90's. There are hundreds of thousands of parts, both OEM and aftermarket available for the through online sellers whom compete at the absolute lowest margins and drop ship from warehouses that would have scrapped the stuff in the past.

I am in a position to price shop a fuel pump and sending unit for the '86 FI Buick. Without the computer world those parts wouldn't be available. Now I find a range from $400 down to $84 for the complete set up. I'm as happy as a guy finding tires for his Model A Ford at Sears in 1965.

 

In one of the previous posts showing a picture of a broken part with a nebulous statement that there aren't any. Isn't a parts problem. It is a communication problem. Ever see the movie "Sling Blade" where the guy stands on the porch without knocking? With a cluster of odd ball cars you gotta try harder.

Bernie

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20 hours ago, nick8086 said:

Where do you get this stuff.. for a rare car..

 

Distributors
Set of points
Carburetor rebuild kits

Fuel pumps..

 

 

poarts.JPG

 

You have a 1904 Searchmont?  Looks like some people in the London-to-Brighton Run.

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On 8/21/2016 at 0:14 AM, DavidAU said:

As a side to the original posting, when you look at the ebay listing above for the GTV the bids jump from $10,000 straight to $28,000.  How does that happen?  I thought that even if you bid $28,000 or whatever the bid would only jump to $10,100.00

One may post a bid as high as one might wish to go, and ebay, automatically, will incrementally see that your bid retains high bid status.  Therefore, one need not bid a great deal more than necessary to be in the winner,s seat.  Of course, once your high offer is insufficient, you will no longer be in the race.  in this case, the second highest bidder probably submitted a bid of $20 some thousand as his high limit..

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I think you'll see more parts on demand as internet marketing is pared with the cheapening of prototyping machines (3d printers can make molds super cheap these days). We just need correct materials applied and cars that had been nearly impossible to restore correctly with new parts will be able to get a second look. I haven't had the need to look, but is anyone working with Bakelite yet these days?

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On ‎8‎/‎21‎/‎2016 at 2:14 AM, DavidAU said:

As a side to the original posting, when you look at the ebay listing above for the GTV the bids jump from $10,000 straight to $28,000.  How does that happen?  I thought that even if you bid $28,000 or whatever the bid would only jump to $10,100.00

First Guy bids $10,000 with a max of $27,900.

 

Second bidder bids $10,100 with a max over $28,000.

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I suspect that in 25-50 years folks will look back and say "Can you believe there was a time when people could actually drive a 4000 lb car at 60 mph WITH ONLY THE DRIVER DIRECTING THE CAR AND CONTROLLING THE SPEED ? THEY MUST HAVE KILLED THOUSANDS EVERY YEAR. " Much like how I find it hard to believe that in the 1950s and very early 1960s you could buy dynamite at the local hardware store in most farming communities.

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  • 3 months later...

"Can you believe there was a time when people could actually drive a 4000 lb car at 60 mph WITH ONLY THE DRIVER DIRECTING THE CAR AND CONTROLLING THE SPEED ? THEY MUST HAVE KILLED THOUSANDS EVERY YEAR. "

 

Problem areas:

 

Traffic lights - no uniform placement - overhead, on corner post, etc. LED bulbs don't melt snow so often there is no "green, yellow, red" visible in mid winter. Syracuse NY has it's "backwards" Tipperary Hill stoplight (red at the bottom)..

 

Driving through 8 to 12 inches of unplowed snow on rural roads (and in Rochester NY  on Interstates once in awhile) - no landmarks, no lane discipline by others, etc.

 

Hand signals given by police around accidents, at busy intersections, etc. Same with flagmen at constructions sites - hand signals take precedence over traffic lights.

 

School zones - marked and unmarked in many areas.

 

School buses - in NYS we are required to stop for school buses even on the other side of a divided highway..

 

Avoidance  - today's state of the art is stymied when the car in front stops and starts to back up to parallel park...

 

Where to stop for flat tires and blowouts on two lane roads with no shoulders / guardrails.  ..

 

It is going to be a very long time before these vehicles can be used 365 days a year under all conditions. Let's not forget that in the 50's they also predicted that we would be driving cars with a small nuclear reactor and would be able to drive for a year on a nickel's worth of "fuel"

 

 

 

 

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As 3D printing comes online and machines can handle larger parts, much of the plastic parts starting in the late 60's become available.

 

Funny you should mention distributers and parts. Few manufacturers after about 1910 made their own. Remy Electric (later Delco Remy) in Anderson supplied distributers, generators, and later starters to an incredible number of different makes. Carter, Rochester, Stromberg, and Tillotson did the same for carburetors.

 

If there is a demand, it can be met.

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" Around 1900 many people said it was impossible for the human body to orient and react to control a vehicle traveling at speeds greater than 15 MPH. Others have spent over 100 years to prove them right. "

 

Yes, absolutely - we rely for a great part on intuition. Think hitting a pitch in baseball, drag race trees, the insane speeds of Indy car road racing - if you wait for the visual to start your reaction it's too late... 

 

Just my two cents - might not be worth that.

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2 hours ago, vermontboy said:

if you wait for the visual to start your reaction it's too late...

 

After over 60 years each in the car hobby and car shows, a friend of mine and I have come to the conclusion that the ONLY sense MOST people are confident in is touch. They can look. They can listen. They can hear. They can taste. But one thing you can bet on every time. They aren't satisfied it is real until they touch it.

 

I can predict that ain't gonna change.

Bernie

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1 hour ago, cahartley said:

I predict I'll be driving my cars, having fun and not giving a hoot what anyone else thinks....... :D

Amen

 

1 hour ago, 60FlatTop said:

 

After over 60 years each in the car hobby and car shows, a friend of mine and I have come to the conclusion that the ONLY sense MOST people are confident in is touch. They can look. They can listen. They can hear. They can taste. But one thing you can bet on every time. They aren't satisfied it is real until they touch it.

 

I can predict that ain't gonna change.

Bernie

Especially a sign that says wet paint, or do not touch, or hot.

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Got into a lot of arguments in school over coefficients of friction before we knew about fractals. Also really fouled me up on the SATs, councilor figured I had to know calculus when really just knew acceleration, speed, and distance.

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