Today's Classic-Car Market—and How They Could Crash It

[60FlatTop]

At 70 years old yesterday, the only thing I'm paying attention to right now is this next election! It's proving to be the most important one in my lifetime!

I read this book a few years ago. It will help: http://www.fourthturning.com/

 

Everyone is playing their part as anticipated. I'm looking forward to a bright future about 15 years from now. ummmm, as long as Chinese tanks don't crush my garage trying to capture the fresh water from the Great Lakes.

Bernie

[padgett]

Well at 80 feet above sea level, Orlando may become an island first. Who nose ? Just if things collapse I figure those who can fix things will be in demand.

[Guest]

Well at 80 feet above sea level, Orlando may become an island first. Who nose ? Just if things collapse I figure those who can fix things will be in demand.

Well maybe later on, but in the beginning and right after it will be those that have the largest collection of guns and ammunition, food, water, fuel and power, plus the ability to successfully defend those assets.

The space between civility and anarchy is very thin and fragile.

Edited March 10, 2016 by helfen (see edit history)

[Guest]

At 70 years old yesterday, the only thing I'm paying attention to right now is this next election! It's proving to be the most important one in my lifetime!

We better get it right this time.

[Guest Skyking]

We better get it right this time.

Don, exactly!!!

[mercer09]

John,

another way to consider the aspect of the Chinese buying up our collector cars............................

 

they are first buying up our real estate and many, yes many are moving here first. So the aspect of them owning our antiques and classics on our soil is very real.

 

They are a clever bunch, hence their extreme wealth in recent times.  It only took thousands of years, but the change of their politics has allowed for their capitalism.

 

Vancouver in the last 20 years has become inundated with Hong Kong expatriates. All because Hong Kong was about to be owned by the mainland.

 

Real estate there has easily gone 5 fold or more.

[60FlatTop]

Take a look at the proposed routes for the Keystone pipeline and tell me it doesn't put the infrastructure in place to export fresh water from the Great Lakes.

 

Huh? I thought.....

 

Bernie

[Joe in Canada]

Another collector cashing in before the bottom falls out???????????????  https://www.yahoo.com/autos/16-amazing-porsches-jerry-seinfeld-192141161/photo--photo-192610106.html

[alsancle]

I think he owns something like 100 cars and they represent only a small percentage of his net worth.  I wouldn't point to that as the indicator.

 

I have been involved in the hobby for a long time, since I was a little boy.  This subject has been constant for 50 years.  

 

One of the best things my mom ever told me was that 95 percent of the things you worry about don't happen.   I'll add that something bad might happen but it probably isn't what you expected.

 

The hobby is supposed to be a diversion from the problems of every day life.  I think it is better to leave it that way as opposed to making another problem to worry about.

Edited March 14, 2016 by alsancle (see edit history)

[John_S_in_Penna]

...I have been involved in the hobby for a long time, since I was a little boy.  This subject has been constant for 50 years.  

 

One of the best things my mom ever told me was that 95 percent of the things you worry about don't happen....   

The hobby is supposed to be a diversion from the problems of every day life.  I think it is better to leave it that way as opposed to making another problem to worry about.

 

Well said, Alsancle.

 

Proposing solutions (such as getting children interested in cars,

or inviting friends along on an afternoon scenic ride) are far

more constructive than worrying.  And a lot more calming, too.

[Guest]

That's Ostrich mentality. 

[1912Staver]

Ostrich yes, but there is nothing any of us can do about big picture problems anyway. Do all the prudent personal steps, don't spend more than you earn, avoid debt except for essentials such as a reasonable house/ shop. Vote; and really do look beyond the election rhetoric  to find leaders who best represent your interest and values.

  And get involved with a hobby car you can afford and you really like, not the one that is most likely to go up in value. Unless you want to try to give Mr. Harwood a run for the money in the old car sales game, which defeats the whole notion of a "hobby".  If your chosen jewel goes up in value over the course of your ownership that's a bonus, but secondary to the stated rationale  of a hobby car.

  And yes by all means try to interest younger people in old cars.

 

Greg in Canada

[John_S_in_Penna]

Proposing solutions...

 

No one should ever ignore problems:

They don't get solved that way.

But one needn't fear them either and

consume himself with worry.  Instead,

act positively, constructively, and strongly,

doing your part.  That's democracy, that's

individual responsibility.  

 

This is a hobby.  It's supposed to be, and it is, enjoyable!

Edited March 14, 2016 by John_S_in_Penna (see edit history)

[Guest]

Ostrich yes, but there is nothing any of us can do about big picture problems anyway. Do all the prudent personal steps, don't spend more than you earn, avoid debt except for essentials such as a reasonable house/ shop. Vote; and really do look beyond the election rhetoric  to find leaders who best represent your interest and values.

  And get involved with a hobby car you can afford and you really like, not the one that is most likely to go up in value. Unless you want to try to give Mr. Harwood a run for the money in the old car sales game, which defeats the whole notion of a "hobby".  If your chosen jewel goes up in value over the course of your ownership that's a bonus, but secondary to the stated rationale  of a hobby car.

  And yes by all means try to interest younger people in old cars.

 

Greg in Canada

Money wise Greg, there is. Just don't rely on those paper notes, they will be worthless.  

[padgett]

I have enough problems with things other people fixed.

 

 

[Larry Schramm]

I have enough problems with things other people fixed.

 

wiringmess.jpg

 

 

Oh,  Looks like someone wanted a "better" aftermarket radio.

[alsancle]

That's Ostrich mentality. 

 

I don't look at it that way.  It seems a better use of energy to work on problems I have control or influence over.  I can't help the fact that most 16 year old boys can't open the hood of a car, let alone change the oil in it.   Or drive a manual transmission for that matter.  I want to enjoy the cars, the camaraderie and fun that goes with them.   Sweating the value of my "portfolio" of cars would just ruin it.  The next car I make money on will probably be my first anyways.

[60FlatTop]

The next car I make money on will probably be one I bought and didn't meet my expectations. I have a bad habit of keeping the good ones.

Bernie

[padgett]

Way I look at it, all of my cars are paid for so if I sell one it just becomes numbers I can only use for other things. Only place I have real debt is my mortgage and at 3% is more of a hedge against inflation. 

 

The GTP is just my latest "work in progress" & after the radio it only needs cosmetics. What it had was wonderful for a decade ago but has no Bluetooth and I have no use for a CD changer. Would like the steering wheel controls to work properly. So currently the options are:

1) stock radio with a cassette adapter for HFP

2) BT radio and a Formula wheel.

 

Have both so am going to bring back to stock first and see how that works then decide. No big.

[John348]

I don't look at it that way.  It seems a better use of energy to work on problems I have control or influence over.  I can't help the fact that most 16 year old boys can't open the hood of a car, let alone change the oil in it.   Or drive a manual transmission for that matter.  I want to enjoy the cars, the camaraderie and fun that goes with them.   Sweating the value of my "portfolio" of cars would just ruin it.  The next car I make money on will probably be my first anyways.

 

I agree way too much energy on something that we really have no control over, anyway if somebody bought these cars as an investment shame on them! It is a hobby and it will cost money

Edited March 15, 2016 by John348 (see edit history)

[Larry Schramm]

Way I look at it, all of my cars are paid for so if I sell one it just becomes numbers I can only use for other things. Only place I have real debt is my mortgage and at 3% is more of a hedge against inflation. 

 

Ditto

[Guest]

 

I agree way too much energy on something that we really have no control over, anyway if somebody bought these cars as an investment shame on them! It is a hobby and it will cost money

John, we are not just talking about cars here. The only way the cars value will tank is if the economy tanks. Unless you are into certain high dollar makes of cars you just have to figure the cars are expendable. So Have FUN with them.  So what we are talking about is something that you must have if the dollar is devaluated or altogether thrown out. What is the type of worth that will survive a dollar crash when it seems like because of the weight of the of this looming 20 Trillion and growing debt crises it will eventually happen, It has to.  It won't be just the dollar. I will be world wide currency meltdown. To put your head in the sand means you will be a victim and not a survivor. 

[John348]

John, we are not just talking about cars here. The only way the cars value will tank is if the economy tanks. Unless you are into certain high dollar makes of cars you just have to figure the cars are expendable. So Have FUN with them.  So what we are talking about is something that you must have if the dollar is devaluated or altogether thrown out. What is the type of worth that will survive a dollar crash when it seems like because of the weight of the of this looming 20 Trillion and growing debt crises it will eventually happen, It has to.  It won't be just the dollar. I will be world wide currency meltdown. To put your head in the sand means you will be a victim and not a survivor. 

 

Totally disagree, supply and demand dictates everything. If there is a world currency meltdown there are bigger problems then the value of our cars to deal with. My head is not in the sand, but I like to be realistic of what is in my control and what is not and focus my concern on those things that I can control.

I accept I will be a victim, because I know I am too old and fat to play Rambo.

Really we should be "just talking cars here"    

[Guest]

Totally disagree, supply and demand dictates everything. If there is a world currency meltdown there are bigger problems then the value of our cars to deal with. My head is not in the sand, but I like to be realistic of what is in my control and what is not and focus my concern on those things that I can control.

I accept I will be a victim, because I know I am too old and fat to play Rambo.

Really we should be "just talking cars here"    

John, You don't have to be a victim financially. There are ways to protect your wealth.

[Jim Bollman]

I figure my old non-electronic controlled cars are my hedge against an EMP event that blows out all modern transportation.

[Guest]

I figure my old non-electronic controlled cars are my hedge against an EMP event that blows out all modern transportation.

It will blow all the electrical power. That means no gas pump or grocery store.

[Jim Bollman]

Pumping gas and getting food supply going is a short term problem, getting millions of electronic cars running is a long term problem. Besides it was suppose to be a joke. 

[John_S_in_Penna]

The original topic was one magazine's 

speculation about the car hobby's decline,

due to future lack of youth.

 

Couldn't we get on more constructive topics,

such as attracting youth;  encouraging signs, 

and so on?

 

Thirty or fifty years ago, were many of the

car hobbyists of retirement age?  Was there

an abundance of young families at shows and meets?

[padgett]

We do have a youth market, it is just for cars of the last two decades just as it always has been. The difference is that these are now mainly ricers (though W-bodies are pretty active and Mustangs/Vettes always will be) and a tuner better be computer literate. Still all of the information is still out there just instead of Whitney/Washaski and Gratiot Auto Supply they look to Amazon and MOATES.NET.

 

Do miss not having everything on .pdfs for the GTP like my Reattae but for under $50 I now have the FSM (two volumes plus supplement) and the 88-93 P&A (both volumes) plus a .bin for the LQ1 PCM.

 

Biggest difference: no longer need Whitworth wrenches but my OTC 2000 with '93 3in1 is handy.

 

Have come full circle to some extent: My first car was a triple carb DOHC 3.4 6cyl with 4 wheel disks and 4 spd +OD & latest is a FI DOHC 3.4 6 cyl with 4 wheel disks and 5 spd. Just first was a '59 and latest is a '93. US cars have caught up.

Edited March 16, 2016 by padgett (see edit history)