Old Car Hobby and the "Big" Three

[1957Birdman]

How would the old car hobby be affected if the "Big" three auto manufacturers were to go out of business? What might be the short and long term effects of such an action on our hobby, if any?

[jscheib]

I think we need not worry about them going out of business, just that things will be different. Watch what happens to NASCAR next spring/summer.

John

[trimacar]

The big three have already sold their souls to the United Auto Workers, so the death would be one of body only. $70 per hour per worker with benefits(vs. $40 per hour per worker for foreign manufacturers); union negotiated health plans that are better than any other manufacturing facilities; a closed GM plant at which workers still show up, still get paid, for doing nothing, until 2011, due to union contract; building massive gas guzzling vehicles when the rest of the world is working on efficient transportation, because SUV's cost little more to build and bring in large profit margins; huge advertising, dealer kickback, and rebate budgets. Sounds like a suicide to me, not a "business" problem.

The "trickle down" effect would be huge. 10% of American workers are in an automotive related profession, a large part of which relates to new cars. Replacement part sales would not be hurt as much. Body shops that specialize in insurance fixes are already hurting. This is not conjecture, I have a friend who has just such a shop, and business has been great for year. His comment now, as business is slow, is that only the cars that HAVE to be repaired are in his shop. For example, cars with liens, that have to be fixed to satisfy lenders, or cars that can't be driven after a wreck. The others? People take the insurance check to buy groceries, and you see, in a Walmart parking lot, red cars with white hoods and white cars with red doors.

How would this affect our hobby? Who the heck knows. Some financial gurus are now saying it is better to have "stuff" than money in the stock market. Thus, paid for "stuff", such as houses, cars, cans of tuna fish, are more valuable than greenbacks.

From my viewpoint, the true hobbyist will still keep and maintain the cars that he/she loves. The person buying cars for investment, with no appreciation for the historical value of the vehicle, will be disappointed. So be it. If auction prices fall, that is no indication of the enjoyment value of the cars, merely that play money has dried up.

In a nutshell, have fun with the cars. Every day not behind the wheel of an antique car, if you truly enjoy them, is a day of pleasure lost.

Off my soapbox now, IMHO and such. dc

[Paul Dobbin]

In the summer of 2002, we visited three major automobile factories. All three started workers at $22.00 an hour.

We went to the Toyota Plant in Georgetown, KY (near Lexington). It was 1 1/2 million square

foot plant that built all the Toyota Camarys sold in the USA. It was a very clean well run plant with good lighting and A/C. No unions, happy employees, team cross training, child care and a great benefits package .

The employees in this plant had organizers come to form a union. They demanded a vote. Toyota said fine, vote. But if you unionize we'll close this plant and build a new one in Louisiana.

The voted no union. We took a tour of the entire facility, that was led by employee's who earned the right to do a 3 month stint on the tour staff. I spoke with many employees who were all happy and enthusiastic about quality of the car they were building and the Toyota company.

Next we went to the GM plant in Bowling Green KY where they build Corvette's. It was dark, dirty and noisy. The tour was given by retired union employees' who relished in the idea that the union protected them form the company and how the factory was at their mercy. They relished in the game of they (GM) can't make us do anything.

I asked them if anybody at the Corvette plant had driven 150 miles to Georgetown to see how Toyota did it. The scoffed at that idea "Why would we want to do that"?

Next we went to the Ford Plant in Louisville where they made Ford Explorers. It was darker and dirtier than the Corvette plant and felt like the inside of a coal mine. The tour was lead first by retired union people with the same attitude we found in the Corvette plant.

I asked them if anybody at the Corvette plant had driven 50 miles to Georgetown to see how Toyota did it. He scoffed at that idea "Why would we want to do that"? The next part is especially interesting for you new car buyers.

There were 1000's of NO SMOKING signs in the plant, but nobody paid any attention. Even at the end of the production line where the finished Explorers were driven from the automated line to the test dyno room, employee's were SMOKING in the cars! I asked the management tour guide why that was? and he said,

"The company and the union have agreed not to discuss it."

I told him I would refuse delivery of any new car that had been smoked in and he said "Oh well..

My vote is to let their competition buy them out. Corporate America has sold everything else to people who are less greedy, so why not the auto industry. The new owners can re-orgainze and make it profitable again. We can always buy our war material from the Chinese and the Russians and get oil from the Saudi's. Opps, that's corporate thinking.

[Guest ken bogren]

Well, the orphan car shows would get bigger.

[Guest Skyking]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: trimacar</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> union negotiated health plans that are better than any other manufacturing facilities; a closed GM plant at which workers still show up, still get paid, for doing nothing, until 2011, due to union contract; </div></div>

Boy, this sounds alot like the Police, Fire & state workers in Rhode Island...........Guess what, we're going broke too.

[Jim Bollman]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ken bogren</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Well, the orphan car shows would get bigger. </div></div>

That was my first thought to.

[1957Birdman]

Where do the true hobbyists come from? When I was growing up I remember my dad telling stories about his first car, a '40 Ford Convertible, his '42 Ford Sedan, his '49 Mercury, etc. I remember how excited I was when he drove home in his new '57 Ford Fairlane Club Victoria. He is the reason I am a Ford man and have been most of my life. I have a passion for these cars and Ford that I will never lose. Maybe it is because modern day cars are more like appliances, but I don't see the same level of passion now for new cars. If the big three fail I think it would affect our hobby, maybe not at first, but over time. The interest might shift to Japanese cars and American cars would become interesting curiosities. I certainly hope that it doesn't work out that way since I don't look forward to going to Hershey to view a line of silver Camarys, no matter how well they have been preserved.

[Dave@Moon]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">...a closed GM plant at which workers still show up, still get paid, for doing nothing, until 2011, due to union contract;... </div></div>

This is called the "jobs bank". Reportedly the UAW has agreed as of today to suspend this practice. ( The Auto Channel, 12/3/08 )

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> ...$70 per hour per worker with benefits(vs. $40 per hour per worker for foreign manufacturers);... </div></div>

Big 3 workers do make more than their non-unionized compatriots at Honda/Toyota/et al. However the $70 vs. $40 figure distorts the difference greatly. This $70 figure for the Big 3 includes the so-called "legacy costs", which resulted from the market shares shrinking faster than the workers got old.

It's a sad burden to bear, but it should not be used to reflect badly on the people who build the cars. They got what they could when they could, <span style="text-decoration: underline">did you or I do less?</span>

[Dave@Moon]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: 1957Birdman</div><div class="ubbcode-body">How would the old car hobby be affected if the "Big" three auto manufacturers were to go out of business? What might be the short and long term effects of such an action on our hobby, if any? </div></div>

There's already a model for the short and relatively long term effects for us to look at. In 1971 in Great Britain all major domestic manufacturers had been merged into government-backed British Leyland, which held 40.2% of the U.K. market. <span style="text-decoration: underline">Eight</span> years later that market share was 19.6%. Five years later the company was reduced to just Austin-Rover in U.K. hands, and that was gone within completely in 12 years. This left the U.K. with nothing left but imported cars, domesticly built cars of foreign brands (including some that <span style="font-style: italic">were</span> British--like Jaguar, MG, Lotus, Land Rover, etc.), and a few tiny boutique manufactuers (Morgan, TVR, etc.) largely dependent on the first two categories.

We Britsh car fans have actually benefitted from this situation, believe it or not. The loss of these famed brands in the U.K. resulted in a boom in interest in what became called "classic cars". Many magazines suddenly appeared with that phrase in the title, and aftermrket/repro parts appeared everywhere. Restoration articals can be found on cars that weren't even 10 years old at the time in these magazines. Even the body dies/jigs for some of the most popular cars (MGB, TR6) were rehabed to create new body shells, frames, etc. As a result there are nearly as many British cars as U.S. cars that you can assemble out of a catalog the way you can a Mustang or 1957 Chevy, even though most of them were produced in numbers of less than 20,000 per year.

I can buy almost anything for my 1970 TR6, which was built in far fewer numbers than even the 1970 AMC Javelin, and built by a company that outlived British Leyland by 6 or 7 years. And I'm over here, not in Great Britain.

I think if (for instance) no Pontiacs are produced any more, the fans of that marque will be forced to preserve whatever they can. Even last year's cars will be of historical interest, and a similar boom in interest will occur here. Everything will get saved that's remotely worth it. And since the repro manufacturers aren't a part of the Big 3 anyway, none of that will change.

All told, I think our interests would be among the least effected. I'm far more concerned with what will happen to wages in general and the solvency of my 401K as a result of this than anything having to do with antique cars.