How many are left?

[ply33]

Is there some rule of thumb for the number of surviving cars there are of any given production number and age.<P>For example: If there were 100,000 Whatisits built 40 years ago, how many could be expected to remain today?<P>I suspect that the lifetime of a car follows the same exponentional decay as found for radioactive elements. During any give year of the car's life is has a relatively fixed probability of becoming scrap.<P>Any numbers?

[Guest]

Interesting point... I was at Carlisle a few years back, and though my numbers will be wrong, the basic jist was as follows...<P>As I was walking through the grounds, a man comes over the load speaker and says " In 1970 there were 1050 SS Chevelles produced... I am happy to report that all 3000 of them are here today!"<P>True story!!! I suppose that many cars that were considered rare have been salvaged from perhaps only a vin plate and built with aftermarket or lessor value parts. How many GTOs are really only Tempests, and how many six cylinder camaros are now Yenkos???<P>Perhaps I've went off on a twisted tangent in regards to this post, but it is interesting to think about isnt it?<P>Rick

[stexch]

I doubt that your radioactive decay analogy would apply to a cross-section of autos. Some of the factors in the equation would be as follows: 1) How did quality/reliability of a specific year, make,&model compare w/it's peers? (I expect the survival rate for Yugos would be under 1% now, due to poor quality); 2) Were replacement parts widely available? (The demise of a maker, or stopping importation of a maker, would tend to accelerate the decay rate, since the majority of owners jettison a car for which one can't get replacement parts cheaply and easily); 3) Pre-WWII cars experienced accellerated decay during the scrap metal drive of WWII, when many cars went to an early grave; 4) Desirability of body style (convertibles and 2 dr hardtops tend to decay at a slower rate than comparable 4 doors and wagons); 5) Performance options tend to factor both ways: Their desirability reduces their decay rate, however their tendency to be used in competition increases their decay rate; 6) Original production: Again this factors both ways: A rare model will tend to be preserved, yet this same rarity may make it impossible to find parts to keep it running, tending to lead to its destruction. 7) How was a given model effected by economic conditions, e.g. the great number of large cars crushed during the Arab oil embargo?<P>A corrally to this discussion is the relationship between rarity and price. There are many orphan cars from the Model T era that exist today at a small fraction of the number of Model T's, yet are worth a fraction of the price of a Model T in comparable condition. Similarly '57 Chevys and '65 Mustangs were made in great number, yet their value exceeds most of their peers.

[Guest rcirilli]

Tod, your quiry is a good one but one that I fear you will never get an answer to. For example, O have tried to get that information on certain Corvettes. All of the mid year Corvettes are valuable unto themselves and no other model can be converted into a Corvette, yet no one has any really good numbers. We know exactly how many were produced and even to the extent of what options they had but that's as good as it gets.<P>On the other hand I wish I knew how many cars there are only six left of. I have one!<p>[ 08-03-2001: Message edited by: rcirilli ]