1935Packard
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Posts posted by 1935Packard
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This map shed some light to me on our EV debates. Around here, in California, EVs are super common. They're everywhere, and very popular. But I gather some of you are writing from places where EVs are rare. I wonder how much that has to do with our disagreements.
https://www.axios.com/local/seattle/2023/11/30/washington-electric-vehicles-cars-rank-state
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49 minutes ago, 1912Staver said:
As I see it in a E.V. environment where the cost of an out of warranty battery replacement easily costs more than the vehicle is worth then the answer has to be no. Who in their right mind would take a risk like that, unless wealthy enough to just take that sort of loss in stride? And how does 7 or 8 year old vehicles being not worth repairing help anyone except for the Vehicle industry itself ?
I wonder if the used car market sheds some light on this. If your view of EVs is right, the market value of used EVs would be very low, much lower than gas cars. After 7 or 8 years, the cars would not be worth repairing. But as I understand the market, the average depreciation is ballpark about the same as it is with gas cars. (Used EV cars vary more, as I gather the technology is changing very quickly and that can lessen the value of used EVs that are based on prior generations of technology. But that's the nature of quick advances.)
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11 minutes ago, Joe in Canada said:
With the pre war cars being driven less I would thing even more tire lines will be less available as sales drop. Everything depends on quantity.
Certainly possible. I wonder if pre-war tire purchases have for a while been based more on tires getting old and becoming unsafe and needing replacement rather than being used so much that they need replacing. But maybe cars are being used so little that owners are just stretching out the number of years between tire replacements.
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19 minutes ago, McLovin said:
I've been in constant contact with the owner who has given me the promises all along of progress that simply doesn't and hasn't panned out as he's promised. Comes across as the nicest guy in the world but his words seems to mean nothing. I've even dropped by many times unannounced, Peter falk, Columbo style to see what he's working on and it's never my car but instead more excuses and promises of future progress. No money disputes or anything of that nature.
Got it. Sorry to hear. Not a happy situation.
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Sorry for your frustration. If you don't mind me asking, with the Alaska shop, how often have you called to check on how things were going, or dropped by in person to see how things were going? And have there been any billing disputes up to this point?
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For me, it's Pebble by a mile. It's just an amazing time, which I say with thanks to several in this thread who have helped make it that.
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44 minutes ago, edinmass said:
Wait till I introduce the boys to Duesenbergs, and they get a ride. You’re gonna need to upgrade. 😎If they insist, I guess I won't have a choice. Although older kid recently told me he wants a 10-year Packard Club membership pin for his upcoming 10th birthday, which he says he should get because he was born a member. Kids today with their crazy ideas.
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On 11/25/2023 at 3:24 AM, alsancle said:
So he talked you into it. It will be fun. And at least you are right there. Shipping a car across the country has gone from 3k to 5k in 3 years.
Still trying to figure out which days to go, and hoping to split the activity fee with someone — I take it not designed for working people who can't just take off 10 days to drive old cars around — but will definitely being going for a few days, driving over to it as a local person.
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Took my '35 out today for a drive around the neighborhood.
Note next-generation co-pilot, barely visible from his baseball cap.
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2 hours ago, CarNucopia said:
First off, the chart above also shows a flattening curve, so you're supporting my earlier point. The idea that a breakthrough technology is just around the corner that lowers cost is pure speculation. Better batteries are always 5 years away. And the folks projecting this narrative are generally trying to raise capitol, not actually build stuff. If it happens, its a game changer. Right now, nobody is close.
It's also a nice mathematical trick to pick a base year for the 40% decline as the year after a 22% increase. But hey, the GS guys do know math...
I think you're missing the math point, so let me try that one again. If costs are declining logarithmically, like a certain percentage every year, then it will seem on an absolute scale that the changes are "flattening" only because costs can't ever get below zero. It doesn't mean that the rate of decrease is flattening, though. In the case of EV costs, in 2008 the cost was $1400 per kwH; 15 years later, it's about 10% of that. I think that's a pretty impressive drop, especially given the prior stated concern that battery costs are prohibitive. But of course you can't keep that absolute kWh of improvement (about $1250 per kwH over 15 years) going, because that would mean that by 2038, you wouldn't pay for a battery— rather, the battery companies would have to pay you a lot of money, $1100 per kWh, to accept along with a new battery. Obviously that can't happen. If the rate of decrease is the same every year, the absolute amount of decrease will be smaller because the amount you're starting with is smaller.
As for for the future numbers being based on just a "mathematical trick," if you don't think dropping from $140 per kwH to the predicted $70 per kWh over a few years is enough, all from $1,400 per kWh in 2008, I'd ask what other areas you have run into where costs dropped like that so quickly. If our antique cars were worth 10 cents on the dollar today as compared to in 2008, and were expected to get to 5 cents on the dollar five years after that, I wouldn't be describing antique cars as unaffordable.
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4 hours ago, CarNucopia said:
The important signal in cost is not comparing current prices with beginning prices. What is relevant is costs relative to competitive products. A century ago, the cost of an ICE Model T dropped significantly compared to EVs and steam cars, making them uncompetitive. They were just too complex to be manufactured inexpensively. While the chart you provided shows an impressive decline in battery costs, the rate of decline has slowed significantly. The benefit of low hanging fruit from scale has been realized, as you can see from the line flattening. Even with the illustrated decline, EVs are considerably more expensive then comparable ICE cars. They sell thanks to subsidies. Remove the subsidies and sales tank.
The policy towards EVs is economically absurd because they started with goal that doesn't measure the progress desired. Policy aims to raise the percent of cars sold that are EVs. What it should be trying to accomplish is increasing the number of miles driven electricity. The scarce resource is batteries. Policy incentivizes passenger cars which spend 22+ hours a day parked instead of, say, urban postal vehicles. An orthodontist driving a Tesla isn't what will move the needle, it's the Amazon delivery van. Yet we squander resources for people to feel good about their green appearance.
I'm not anti-EV. I test drove a GM EV-1 back in 1999 because I was curious what they offered. I'm anti EV policy because it is wasteful and ineffective.
I realize you have already pronounced that people who disagree with you don't understand economics, but I think you're unaware both of how math works and the incredible progress in the pipeline coming with new battery technologies. Better and cheaper batteries that don't rely on the same elements as older batteries are coming soon, and they're expected to further dramatically drop the price of batteries. It's a central area of industry focus. So while you look at the curve I posted "flattening" after costs go down 90% in 15 years and you announce the curve is now basically flat, I think what you're seeing is that when costs are down to 10% of what they were 15 years ago, the further drops in costs look smaller on the old chart only because the scale is changing.
Look at what the the industry expects for battery costs in the next few years, from a report by Goldman Sachs put out earlier this month:
And that's just the next few years. My sense from the industry reports is that the expectation is of further extraordinary leaps forward in battery technology. It reminds me of the Model T era, where the prices of a Model T plummeted to a small fraction of what it had been a few years earlier. Except you'd have to imagine the costs continuing to drop exponentially over time, again and again.
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18 hours ago, George Cole said:
Anybody here going to do any of next year's CCCA tours or shows? I just signed up for the Ohio Mini-CARavan and Grand Concours. Ed asked if I was going to do the Best of the West CARavan. I'd like to, but it's hard to justify least $12-15k for one event, including 8-days of dragging the car on a trailer 6k+ miles there and back. Thinking about the Metro Region Grand Classic, but it's only one day of touring. I'd have to drag the car 2400 miles there and back just to tour one day.
I'll be doing the Best of the West, at least for a few days. My first CARavan, looking forward to it.
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Awesome set of cars. And that Delahaye is just the bomb. Body by Figoni & Falaschi, I would guess?
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I think stodgy 1920s sedans are really neat to look at, but no question this is a really tough market for them.
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11 hours ago, CarNucopia said:
This Venn Diagram sums up my opinion of the EV transition.
Batteries are prohibitively expensive to produce which is a big part of the reason the market voted against EVs a century ago. The same thing will happen now if people are allowed to buy what's best for them.
This chart on the cost of EV batteries indicates that the cost of batteries is plummeting as technology is developing, just in the last 15 years. Can you say more on why, if a person understands economics, they know that battery costs are fixed at "prohibitively expensive," the same as they were a century ago?
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When I was in second grade, our teacher taught us that the way to respond to relative terms was to ask, compared to what? The teacher would stand in front of the class, "I see a tree that is tall," and we would respond as a class, "tall compared to what?" The point was that these relative terms have no meaning except with respect to a reference point. I feel like it's the same thing with a car being "rare." Rare compared to what? For some people, all old cars are rare. To others, it's not rare if other examples exist somewhere. All depends on the standaad.
Don't think I remember anything else from 2nd grade, but for some reason I remember that.
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$120,00 this time. I really like this car.
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1932-cadillac-355b-convertible-coupe-3/
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Great thread, especially for those of us who haven't driven this era of cars (or at least haven't done so much).
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Ignacio, I'm the one who posted in 2015 about the one that I'd had in the 80s (1003689). I occasionally look to see if it pops up on the Internet, but it hasn't. 1000451, which you note above, looks pretty similar (same color and interior upholstery) but is a different car.
Looking at the CCCA member directory, I see 6 of them registered and published there. Between the CCCA membership list, and membership lists of the Cadillac & LaSalle club, that's probably your best bet for finding about other existing cars.
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Some of you may have seen this, but I found this a pretty interesting video. "JayEmm", a Youtube channel host who mostly reviews new or recent cars in the UK, took out this 1922 Bentley for a spin. For those of us interested in that kind of car who don't have any personal experience with them, it may be of interest. I enjoyed watching, at least.
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This is one of the seller reviews. As AJ says, run.
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On 10/11/2023 at 8:01 PM, edinmass said:
Here is an article about the car when we were in Italy with it. I enjoyed driving a Rolls Royce PII around the lake with the DB5 on the public display day at the Villa . Had a great conversation with the owner, and discussed the experience of sitting in the car driving around the field with the orchestra playing the theme song from the movie. It was one of the top ten car experiences I have had………here are some photos of the show…..and the DB5 with the owner driving it up for its award. The red 540K is an old girlfriend of one of our regular posters here………great car.
Interesting, Ed, I don't think of you as a vintage Aston guy. You know that's a post-war car, right? (I'll let myself out.)
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4 hours ago, John Bloom said:
@TAKerry it is interesting to see a “flavor of the month” marque and model. I always wonder if the hyper inflation is a sustainable new price point ( a permanent correction per se), or a crested wave that will go back to normal levels soon.
ive had several conversations with a buddy about this. Two models we talk a lot about are Dinos and early 911’s.
It seems like just 20 years ago, a decent driving Ferrari Dino could be bought for 40-50 K....... man has that changed.
my uncle was the President of the Porsche Club of Ohio back in the late 70’s/early 80’s and had lots of them and exposed me to them when I was 18 ish. I remember again what seems like 20 years ago and a 70-72 911 T or E could be bought for 10K. The S commanded a premium and might have been 15K. That ship has also sailed, early 911’s went berserk and seem to be sustaining it.
this provokes two thoughts in me.....why do some reset to a higher price and sustain it, and others fall back down in time. I think the fickleness of the hobby/market is the main influence but production numbers are also a part of the equation. They didn’t make a ton of Dinos.
a fun exercise is trying to identifying what is the next car poised to have rapid appreciation in the next 5 years (doubling or tripling in value). I have my thoughts as I’m sure others here do as well.
I'd love an early 911, although not at their current price point. To my mind, it makes sense that they're staying pricey: They're beautiful, sporty, reliable, instantly recognizable, and still in keeping with the current 911, which is still a wonderful car. It's a desirable package; I just wish so many people didn't agree with that.
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16 minutes ago, AzBob said:
I recall the 1970's when the much talked about threat was global cooling and a new ice age on the horizon. The climate has changed for millions of years before mankind arrived and will continue to change.
But even in the 1970s, when the models were brand new and very primitive, the scientific models mostly predicted warming. The media sometimes wrote about cooling, but don't listen to the media: Listen to the scientists.
https://skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s.htm
And while it's true that the climate has changed for millions of years before mankind came around, that has traditionally been change over tens of thousands of years. One-way change toward warming with the astonishing speed that we have already seen, and which is only now accelerating, that's unheard of. Anyway, I guess it's either fake or totally okay to folks here, but it turns out that the younger people who are going to have to live on this planet when we're all gone are pretty seriously worried about it—and very understandably so, it seems to me.
Anyway, I'll let others have the last word if they like. Have a good weekend.
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About to be overtaken? (Forum most contributions)
in General Discussion
Posted
Well don't jinx it.