Guys,

Dave is in full "Chicken Little" mode; the sky is falling.

Now, if you really want an interesting fact to consider, one oil exec said oil from new Gulf drilling would be on the market in 1-6 years.

Guess he didn't get his supply of "there ain't no more oil" Kool-aid.

...and, oh by the way, just so we don't loose focus with all these maps and charts about how much oil we don't have, one more thing: although this will be sad news for some, looks like gas won't be $30 per gallon any time soon.

But it may be back to $3 sometime soon.....

When your map has Canada as having insignificant reserves and the Wikipedia source list them as No. 2...I file your response under "adult male bovine excrement"
Willie

Like I said, read your link.


Like I said, they agree almost totally. The diagram I posted was of recoverable oil reserves, not hypothetical reserves of questionable value at best.

Well, you can't outfox a fox, and Dave is one of the foxiest. I've never seen him unable to justify his 'facts' over anyone else's 'facts'. That takes a special talent. You go Dave. I'm just gonna sit back, observe and chuckle to myself.

A man of his word.

Old Tank, Dave attributes that statement to our illustrious President, Mr. Bush. He doesn't claim it as his own, though he probably could.

Actually it was Dan Quayle's.

BTW, the diagram that has everyone's undies in a bunch was from BP Oil's 2004 edition of their Statistical Review of World Energy.

POTATOE (actually, that is the proper english spelling believe it or not!)

I should really stay out of this, but I'm tired and I think I've read a bit too much bashing.

A truth that a friend of mine is fond of repeating - 'Fact has no emotion.' One problem here is that we have an argument going on, largely between two individuals, both claiming to have facts on their side. At this point, I'm just getting tired of it. And this isn't debate, which is considerably more civilized.

Regarding NAFTA, about all I can say is ask who the 800 pound gorilla in North America (the NA in NAFTA) is. It isn't Canada and it isn't Mexico...I wonder who's left. Part of the reason that folks dislike it is that a number of American industries have tried lodging complaints simply based on protectionist ideas. Protectionism and free trade aren't all that compatible (especially if we introduce Matt's logic and Socrates' defining of terms).

Another thought to keep in mind is that there are many folks here who think NAFTA is bad for Canada too...if that is the case, I wonder what the Mexicans think. If everyone thinks they are getting the short end of the stick, then it probably is a good deal overall.

Now, more popular thought in Canada...stop selling oil to the USA. I know that is unrealistic, but if you are ticked at Middle Eastern nations now generally, how would you feel about if if your largest supplier stopped selling?

If tar sands are so unproductive, why is Syncrude in production in Fort McMurray? There are bound to be complex reasons, but since they are still operating and searching for workers, I'm thinking it's a bit more than a pilot project.

Finally, if you think 75 cents out of $4 for taxation is bad, come up to my part of the world. Doing the math, our gasoline is roughly the equivalent of $5/gal and taxes eat up a considerably larger portion of the pie than 3/16 (now I need to visit a gas station to verify...sigh).

Some good points there Derek.
It was not my intention to open a can of worms or start WW 111
merely to give you all an idea of some "talk around the traps"
here locally.
Looks like the oil price is coming down ( for now ) so maybe we should call it day on this one.

Guys,

What you may not have picked up on yet when trying to talk to Dave about anything is that he is a TRUE believer.

What that means is that when he says there is no new oil, he REALLY believes it. Ditto with finding oil in Canada or Colorado in oil shale, drilling in Anwr, the Gulf Coast, or that we HAVE NOT been building new refineries, he doesn't believe you or the information you present because it is in conflict with his world view.

So, for example, any info you present that shows we haven't built any refineries in more than 30 years, he rejects it because it is in conflict with the world view he has accepted as his canon, his standard, his definition of the way things really are.

When you tell him oil companies want to drill in areas currently closed, his response is "why, there isn't any significant amount of oil there?" even though oil companies are putting THEIR billions of dollars to use to go after oil they believe IS there. HIS belief that there is no oil makes your assertion that there is more oil ridiculous to him. His belief that there is no oil makes his belief that they are wasting their time make perfect sense to him.

When you talk about new wells, he believes every new oil drilling site is very likely to be another Exxon Valdez incident.

Why do you think he has been coming into a CAR site telling CAR ENTHUSIASTS that there is no more oil and he thinks gas going to $30 per gallon is a good idea? Because when that happens, he truly believes we will be FORCED to come around to his world view.

When oil goes to nearly $150 per barrel, it is because there is no new oil to be discovered, and therefore he is right. When oil drops $20 per barrel in about a week after the momentum builds to allow new exploration AND drilling, to his world view, that is just a temporary fluke that should be ignored.

And, his education convinces him he must be right, because how can someone with that much formal education AND the best intentions of saving the planet be wrong? His education becomes his blinders to seeing your point of view.

So, save your wear and tear on your computer's keyboard. He drank the kool-aid of Al Gore and all the "world is coming to an end" people that think we have to drive American industry into the stone age and get every American to buy a Pius in order to reduce our "carbon footprint" because of global cooling/global warming/climate change/whatever they intent to call it next.

Joe

With oil costs what they are today there's no doubt that tar sands can be profitably mined and processed. The producton costs were once thought to be about $25/barrel, but are now proably at least twice that much and rising as rapidly as the price of oil iteself. A year ago it would've been impossible to produce synthetic oil at a profit using tar sands. Today (financially) it's not as bad, and as long as you're willing to pay $4-$5/gal. these marginal resources will likely continue to be developed.

The environmental costs are huge, however. About 4 tons (typically) of earth, three barrels of water, and enough natural gas to produce 80 kilograms of CO2 (the barrel of oil itslef makes 130 kg of CO2 when burned) are consumed for every barrel of synthetic oil produced from tar sands. Those costs are minimal at worst for a barrel of oil pumped conventionally from a well head. Multiply the 4 tons of earth by 20.5 million barrels per day and you can get an idea quickly how many Euclid trucks will be needed to supply the current U.S. oil needs. What the trucks will run on is a different matter. (More on this subject in the last paragraph).

There is a major push right now on in situ conversion of the tar, where the sand is not mined but the tar is converted in place and extracted. This has many benefits, but is essentially a death knell for the area's groundwater resources. Not only will there be organic contamination left behind, but the sulfur content (which is very high generally and will make diesel production very expensive) will also pollute the area. It also is (if anything) more energy intensive than the typical mining/extraction process.

Oil shales (which contain neither oil nor shale by the way) are even more expensive to process both financially and environmentally, and even less efficient an energy production process.

This last point, the energy return on investment (EROI), is thankfully positive for both tar sands and (to a lesser extent) oil shale, although very marginally at times depending on methodology and resource quality. However there's no hope that it'll ever achieve anything near the return of today's conventional sources.

Most important in the final analysis, however, there is a simple fact that cannot be overcome. While there is a great deal of this material available (especially in Canada), all of this complex operation needed to extract usable fuel from it will limit production rates. It simply takes a lot of time and effort and environmental impact to do all the the processes necessary in a given location to find/process/extract/extract again/process again/etc. the material. The best analysis on this issue I can find is Unconventional Oil: Tar Sands and Shale Oil - EROI on the Web, by Nate Hagens of The University of Vermont's Gund Institute for Ecological Economics.. His conclusions are as follows:


(Bold font added my me.)

"Another thought to keep in mind is that there are many folks here who think NAFTA is bad for Canada too...if that is the case, I wonder what the Mexicans think. If everyone thinks they are getting the short end of the stick, then it probably is a good deal overall."

The difference is, that in America, we actually had industry, namely the auto industry, and now instead of all parts made in the US. We now have the parts made in Canada and Mexico. So, I dont see where this short end of the stick is coming from, in regards to Canada and Mexico, since they lost nothing and gained industry that they would not have. Some companies, which have moved from here are Rubbermade, Rexroth, large amounts of GM production.


'Finally, if you think 75 cents out of $4 for taxation is bad, come up to my part of the world. Doing the math, our gasoline is roughly the equivalent of $5/gal and taxes eat up a considerably larger portion of the pie than 3/16 (now I need to visit a gas station to verify...sigh).'

It's because you guys have a socialist government, which CA is shortly becoming hence 75 cent tax, your gov't is ripping you off! also, I believe our dollar, though faltering is worth more than your money still. Also, here in CA the common commute is 50 miles 1 way so, we drive more. That gas tax $ was supposed to fix roads but, instead we have a 15 billion deficit in CA

'Now, more popular thought in Canada...stop selling oil to the USA. I know that is unrealistic, but if you are ticked at Middle Eastern nations now generally, how would you feel about if if your largest supplier stopped selling?'

The Canadian Socialist government has tried to undermine the U.S. in the past yet, their people come here and work, then take money home, (Doctors, Entertainers (Alex Trebeck, William Shatner, Celine Dion just to name a few, etc.) get medical treatment here because the socialist wait in line system sucks and people dont want to wait on a list to die. If anything the Canadian government should be thankful to us flushing money into their economy that would not be there. If Canada stopped shipping oil to us, the entire North America economy would die since Canada relies on our economy somewhat as well as the rest of the Americas. But, the big question is, that why do you guys have high gas prices when you have a large oil reserve similiar to the middle east?

“One never actually runs out of a resource, the price just increases until demand drops.“
Paraphrased from Arnold Kling, The Future of Oil

Who Moved My Cheese? Spencer Johnson, MD

OK folks, I’ve been away from this for a bit, but feel compelled to wade in…

The opening quote really defines what is happening today. The book is recommended reading for those that are having difficulty getting their heads around the global changes taking place at an ever quickening pace.

Observations and thoughts on comments presented earlier:

The current drop in the futures price of crude can be directly traced to the anticipated drop in demand, particularly from the US. I’d say we’d be better off with no tariffs, period. We’re in a global economy, let the global economy sort it out without interference. The problem is getting the collective minds around ‘somebody moved my cheese’. These are the folks in the Allegheny River valley that are still awaiting the return of big steel and more recently, the return of $1.00/gallon gas.

My thoughts with respect to oil…

- We use too much imported oil

- World production of oil is not increasing at the same rate as consumption… it doesn’t matter where we drill. Some of the ‘Hail Mary’ solutions do not justify the risk or the cost, and they certainly will not save us from having to significantly alter our consumption habits.

- We in the US have two interlocking choices for the long term: Coal-powered and nuclear energy generation, currently ~50% and 20% of our electrical generation, respectively. Add in niche uses of ‘alternative’ power generation and the development of wide-spread use of plug in hybrid vehicles, and we can easily wean ourselves from the imported oil binge we’ve been enjoying. Use of oil for transportation will not go away because it’s just too practical. What will change is how we elect to use it and how we employ reasonable alternatives.

- The rise in oil prices, food prices, and raw materials prices reflect the unprecedented rise in economic prosperity in the world. We’re not slipping backwards, they’re catching up. Blame TV… monkey see, monkey want, monkey do.

- It isn’t the government’s job to regulate the prices, the prices aren’t their fault (and if/when they go down, it’s not to their credit.

- Facts don’t have emotion, but folks sure put a lot of emotion on them, and in so doing, obscure the fact, misinterpret the fact, and frequently make stupid and sometimes life threatening decisions based on their emotions.

NAFTA – we’re a global economy. Get over it and get on with the program. Get creative about correcting the inevitable displacements that will occur. We, as a nation, have always been adept at transformation. It isn’t your parent’s world anymore… it isn’t even the world it was a decade ago. The cheese has moved.

NASA – Hand’s down the absolute best money this country has ever spent. Want more engineering and science students? Make a real national commitment to space exploration. Give people something to really imagine about… it’s an incentive to go to school to learn how. I clearly remember the awe that the original Mercury astronauts created and the rapt attention and imagination the early space program created.

We didn’t take just 8.5 years to go to the moon. It was really 30 years because the technology development that ultimately got us to the moon began early in WWII. The rockets that started the space program were originally designed in the early 1950’s as the life vehicles for nuclear ICBMs.

We need to go to Mars, starting now. We need a challenge! We must capture the imagination of the youngest generation before they’re fried on Wii, Xbox, and iPhones.

Gas Taxes – In California and elsewhere, they might be one of the most well-targeted consumption taxes devised. If you don’t want to pay the tax, don’t use the gas. If you drive on the roads, don’t complain about the tax. If you live in CA, you should give thanks for special blends…. I do remember… yellow, eye stinging smog in LA. It’s really not there anymore. Special blends is part of it.

Back to the Good Ole Days… You can’t be serious, can you? They weren’t that good. Simpler, harder, more rigid, and far fewer choices. Don’t fall victim to the ‘rose colored glasses’ syndrome. The cheese has moved.

Cheers,
JMC

John,

Great discussion!

You're right about NASA and the roots of the moon shot successes going back to WWII. (Our Germans were better than their (the Soviet's) Germans.)

Reminded me of just how much Werner Von Braun and his team contributed and how much of a debt we owe him.

As for the Mars program, maybe if we had a Mars rocket run by an XBox, and the only fuel was Hot Pockets and Red Bull? Nah, there would have to be a paint ball park, an iPod store or a Starbucks on Mars for that generation to volunteer.

Just a thought.....

Stellar post John!

"NAFTA – we’re a global economy. Get over it and get on with the program. Get creative about correcting the inevitable displacements that will occur. We, as a nation, have always been adept at transformation. It isn’t your parent’s world anymore… it isn’t even the world it was a decade ago. The cheese has moved."

Say that to an entire generation of factory workers now without jobs! And without retirement and an education now working at min. wage at the grocery store, and for what? Just so, GM or any other factories can employ Mexican workers and pay them 50 cents an hour w/o benefits?


"We didn’t take just 8.5 years to go to the moon. It was really 30 years because the technology development that ultimately got us to the moon began early in WWII. The rockets that started the space program were originally designed in the early 1950’s as the life vehicles for nuclear ICBMs."

True, but, when I said 'we' I meant the U.S, from the announcement to the final product. Remember the first rockets that would explode on the launchpad? LOL!

'Gas Taxes – In California and elsewhere, they might be one of the most well-targeted consumption taxes devised. If you don’t want to pay the tax, don’t use the gas. If you drive on the roads, don’t complain about the tax. If you live in CA, you should give thanks for special blends…. I do remember… yellow, eye stinging smog in LA. It’s really not there anymore. Special blends is part of it.'

I dont know if you have been to CA lately? But, our tax money for roads is not going to roads! It has been siphoned off! So, I complain about the ridiculous taxes when they are not used for what they should be used for! And also, what was wrong with the yellow smog? It made L.A. look cool and we had cheaper energy prices! LOL! What we can do, is take all the illegal aliens and their cars off the road, and that will clear up the atmoshphere and traffic. And before Dave has a cow I have a fact to back it up. In 2006 during the first illegal alien rally, at 6 p.m. a freeway, the I-10 which is normally packed full, was completly empty, it was great!



'Back to the Good Ole Days… You can’t be serious, can you? They weren’t that good. '

Yes they were! And even though, I did not live them, they were good, That was when the husband could work from 9-5 buy a house, car, energy, groceries, and still have money left over. Unlike today, when it takes both husband and wife working just to break even every month and pay the damn gas bill and taxes!

So the roads aren't being maintained at all? What about those bridges that fall down in earthquakes? That money's coming from somewhere, right? And it's still a use tax, regardless of where it is spent. It encourages less consumption as a by-product, but that's what it does. Want to pay less tax? Use less gas.


Yeah, illegals are the source of all our woes...


Or people today can live within their means. Case in point: mortgage crisis.

However, I do think life was better when men wore hats. Perhaps fedoras would cure a lot of problems.

Yes, the 'cheese has moved'. That's a fact, the balance is emotion. Now, as to moving production 'offshore', what did they expect? Organized labor (UAW in this case) in this country was/is strangling the US automotive industry, in effect holding the manufacturers hostage to gain unprecedented and unsustainable wage and benefit packages. The legacy of this approach killed the goose that laid the golden egg by making US auto companies largely uncompetitive in the global economy. This was 'accomplished' by both the direct cost of labor and by making the labor component cost so high that to remain price cometitve, engineering and innovation suffered dramatically. So, unfortuanate as it is, who's at fault, ultimately? Greed and gravity ultimately win.




Putting your thinking cap on... do you really think that JFK would have issued that challenge/directive if he didn't think we could accomplish it based on the work previously done? It might be space... but the road to the launch pad is political. "We" was the US, from pre-Redstone Arsenal days, when Werner vB and company were still polishing up the V-2.



As to taxes... Well, I've been in SoCal since 1975, so I have a pretty good picture of what has transpired in the past 30 years. I don't see where 'gas taxes' have been siphoned off. California has the highest taxes on motor fuel in the US... but: (Using rounded numbers for gas... Diesel is a bit different) Federal exise tax, 18.4c/gal; CA Road Use tax, 18.0c/gal (fixed rates). CA sales tax is 6% and city/county sales tax of 5.5-8.5%, plus some other minor taxes and fees that are about 3%. Sales taxes go to the general fund. Road use taxes, however, are closely held for transportation use. The real problem that nobody is dealing with is that the rate is fixed per gallon, not as a percentage of sales price. The CA per gallon exise tax rate has not increased since 1994. To bring it to parity would require an increase of ~15.0c/gallon. So, your transportation infrastructure now depends on bond measures and borrowing for makeup funding. Wonder why the roads are p*** poor now? 'Taxes' aren't being siphoned, what's being collected is far inadequate to the need. This is exacerbated by the state's and many counties' poor credit rating which make it impossible to borrow. Frankly, I'd be glad to see the exise tax go up to parity or more to fund renewal of our transportation system.





Yes, before: "What's in your wallet?", "You deserve... ", and a TV in every room 3,000 square foot McMansions, two leased cars that you can't afford to buy, meals out five times a week, credit card vacations, gym memberships... yada, yada, yada. That house of cards is folding. What people never caught onto was the impact of progressive, unindexed (until very recently) income tax... socialism at its finest. In most of those households, one of the two incomes goes to pay the taxes, the child care, and the work related expenses. So what's the point?

Cheers,
JMC



[/quote]

So John, what about all the people that don't have the above mentioned?

Sky, I think you're asking: "What about the folks that haven't lived beyond their means, and are still in the crunch?"

You don't have to 'have all the above mentioned' to live beyond your means. That's not to imply that there are not hard working folks that live within their means and still struggle to make ends meet. There is a very enlightening book, Nickel and Dimed: On (Not) Getting By in America, by Barbara Ehrenreich that shows the struggles and traps that befall those at the lower end of the economic scale for whatever reason. Sometimes it just gets tough and extraordinary action by the individual is necessary. The chief problems that I see is the national sense of entitlement, poor education (academic and financial), and the acceptance of victimization as a lifestyle.

JMC

Major roads are not being maintained and upgraded as they should be. I saw a news Item the other day, exposing our bridges which are not safe. As for the illegals, in regards to traffic, schools, etc. they are a problem. Our emergency rooms are filled, it takes hours to get in, though you have insurance and they do not, the roads are being clogged and worn down by people w/o driver's license's and insurance, crime has gone up, like the 3 members of the Bologna family that were masacered up in San Fransisco by an illegal who was caught and let go, because of their 'sancuary city' policy as well as the school overcrowding in L.A. by non-taxpaying people, who should not be in the school system in the first place causing education quality to drop for our youngest and defensless citizens who will be raised with a sub par education. Our tax $ is not going to our schools for OUR CITIZENS it is going to pay for NON CITIZENS and not even to benefit people who are legal minded citizens.

As for people who live within their means, this is a misnomer, as my dad lives well within his means and has no outstanding credit debt, just the mortgage, and $ is still tight occasionally and he has a mortgage that is within his means, the problem is the rising cost of goods yet wages are staying the same. The people with the defaults at least many of them here in So. Cal were not legally allowed to be here and yet financial institutions like Bank of America were giving them loans, also, houses were to expenssive for the longest time, once again a hike in costs yet wages stay the same.

So, the fedora era was far better!

Well if Germans were responsible for the Apollo landings, take a look at how many NASA staff were actually Canadian, after the cancellation of the most advanced fighter jet of the time....

Also, if Canadians are using so many services, perhaps we should repatriate all our nurses...then see what the US health care system would be like. Thanksgiving is celebrated in October in many locations in the US. For those that queue jump, someone is footing the bills in the US - if those tests and elective surgeries were booked up with waiting lists like they are here, Canadians wouldn't be getting them done in the US.

If you honestly think that Buzz Hargrove and the CAW are very far behind in pay and benefits as compared to UAW members, I think that you may need to give some more thought to the issue. Health care costs are not the same, but there are some wages involved that would surprise a lot of folks.

For the record, I am not a socialist...I would rather return to some of the old ways where elderly family members would stay with their offspring and the extended nuclear family meant something...if nothing else the grandchildren / great-grandchildren saw everything in a different light.

Dave - thanks for some enlightenment on tar sands. It wouldn't surprise me at all if government money was propping up the development, at least to start with.

As for fedoras, I have a few. However, let's also look back at some of the recent discussion. Perhaps the fedora is a symbol of a working middle class man. Perhaps the middle class has been squeezed too hard - inflation at least seeming higher than wage increases. Perhaps it is a time that is now out of reach...perhaps my generation (X) doesn't have the work ethic or morals of previous generations. Perhaps if folks would be willing to put in an honest day's work for a job that needs doing, employers wouldn't need to look under the table for someone willing to do the grunt work.

Remember, you will always have the poor - I'm not going to look up chapter and verse, but the existence of a lower class is nothing new.

That's more than enough blathering....

Guess this oil just appeared out of nowhere today:

Arctic May Hold 90 Billion Barrels of Oil, U.S. Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aqEDMhrCvp28

Sure am glad we didn't buy into the "ain't no more oil" theory. We might have missed this 90 BILLION barrels that was apparently hiding.

I really liked this quote:
"Most of the Arctic, especially offshore, is essentially unexplored with respect to petroleum,'' Donald Gautier, the project chief for the assessment, said in the report. ``The extensive Arctic continental shelves may constitute the geographically largest unexplored prospective area for petroleum remaining on Earth.''

I posted the entire story in the General forum. Thought I would share it with you here.
http://forums.aaca.org/ubbthreads.php/topics/525712#Post525712

By the way, it moves that "out of oil" chart back about another 12 years. Of course, the source is very unreliable--The U.S. Geological Service. Gotta watch out for those right-wing groups like the USGS.

Guess it will be a little longer now before gas hits $30.

Cheers,

Joe