Like I said, right now it's much cheaper to buy it from the Arabs than it is to go to Alaska to get it. That will change as prices go up in the future. We all know that oil companies won't do anything that isn't financially viable. And why suck it all up now when there's still plenty elsewhere? Alaska won't change prices we pay at the pump (a lot of it will go to China anyway--most oil is sold on a global market). You may even see prices go up because of the cash investment needed to go get the oil--do you think oil company shareholders will take kindly to slashes in their dividends to finance the project? It might cost more to get the oil than they can sell it for at today's prices.

Listen, if we really want to royally screw the Arabs, let's use up all their oil and make them buy it from us when it's gone. Their clock is running out along with their oil. Once that last well goes dry, they can go back to living in the desert and sqabbling amongst themselves. And they'll still have to buy all their food from somewhere else, too (good luck growing corn in the desert, guys). We make an awful lot of food...

A lot of people think Alaska is the magic bullet and will cure our dependence on foreign oil forever. It won't. Even if there's FOUR TIMES as much oil up there as Exxon/Mobil thinks there is, it's only two year's worth at our current rate of consumption. And as I said, we won't get to keep it all--China will buy a great deal of it.

We are just going to have to get used to expensive energy and adapt. We're Americans, for Pete's sake! We built this country up from when it was all forests and swamps and desert. We can surely keep our way of life going despite expensive gas. Yeah, it sucks to pump $120 worth of gas into my truck, I feel the pain more than many of you (I spent $4000 on fuel last year as a contractor--about 15% of my income!). But it's reality and all the wishing won't change the fact that it will cost what it costs. No politician or policy or protest can change it. Adapt or don't, it's up to us to be smarter than we have been with our consumption. As Bob rightly said (by the way, your rotisserie looks awesome! ), there is no magic bullet. But a lot of little magic bullets can make a big difference.

Consider this: what if we use all up all our native resources today when we don't need it, and then the Arabs cut us off (they don't need us--China and India and the rest of the world will gladly buy all they can pump)? What then? Oops. Welcome back to the stone age, America.

With all due respect, going to Alaska now makes no sense today, not political nor financial nor environmental. Someday it will. But that day isn't today.

No it won't, Ron. Clean up, remediation, and reclaimation has been required for any mineral extraction in this country for years. That it would be required is a given.
That has not silenced, or swayed, a small but very vocal group of eviromental zealots who beleive almost any use of natural resourses constitutes some kind of "rape" of the planet.
The same arguments being made now were the same arguments made against the Trans-Alaskan pipeline. It turns out the caribou, who were going to be decimated, never even blinked and in fact have thrived.
Now they are trying to have the Polar bear declared "endangered", when nothing could be further from the truth, so they could use that classification as a legal hammer to cripple pretty much any developement in the far North. The fact that many elderly and less fortunate people are being forced to shiver in cold houses or struggle to pay utility bills matters not a whit to them. Save a bear, screw an old lady.........Bob

Hey, I have no problem with using french frie oil in a diesel. I just don't want prices to get so out of whack that it is cheaper to make french fries out of 10W 30.

Yum!

What you say makes sense. But in the meanwhile lets get over the exploration/regulatory hurdles and environmental hysteria. Who knows, the very prospect of drilling in Alaska may dampen the futures frenzy.
BTW, I really like the idea of an "OFPEC" (Organization of Food Producing Countries) when the wells run dry......Bob

BTW, the arguements about the Arabs and the price of oil is really not relevant.

Do you know who we import most of our oil from? (Scroll down)





























The top five exporting countries accounted for 70 percent of United States crude oil imports:
1. Canada (Non-OPEC nation)
2. Saudia Arabia
3. Mexico (Non-OPEC nation)
4. Nigeria
5. Venezuela
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petro...ent/import.html

But the Canadians are sooooo much nicer it's really hard to hate them. Of course Venezuela is no problem to despise. Mexicans have always been nice too. Of course there was that Alamo thing awhile back, but what the Hell. Nigeria? I don't want to say anything bad about Nigeria. There is a secret bank account there and all I have to do is send them my bank account numbers and it will be mine.......Bob

It works awesome too. I can roll that Chrysler right over 360 degrees. I actually was going to motorize it to roll the car, but I came to my senses. It really has been a boon to my old knees and back. Great design, Matt. Thanks again........Bob

17,552 megawatts of new generating capacity. ( Energy Information Administration, US-DOE, Oct. 22, 2007 )


Winds blow. Rains fall. Stuff happens.

(BTW, the Nevada Commission on Tourism thanks you! )


No. It's more like buying a thirsty person who you know is alcoholic a shot of Jack, meanwhile the two of you are accross the street Al Kada's Party Store and Tobacco Outlet where he's already run up a tab he can't pay.


Yes, but one person (or in this partticular case 2 people) telling comfortable lies will outweigh thousands telling inconvenient truths. The last 10 years have proven that in spades. He!!, Fox News has built an entire network around it.

===================

It's all a matter of putting it together for yourself, not letting someone on TV, in the newspaper, at a web blog, or in your favorite political party do it for you according to their own agenda.

Most Polar Bears Gone By 2050, Studies Say

There are absurdly alarmist arguments being made on both sides of the polar bear's fate right now. This analysis seems to be more moderate than most. It all really depends on how long the sea ice lasts. when it's gone, they're gone. At the rate it's going right now the collapse of polar bear populations will be much faster than this analysis states, but hopefully we can slow that rate enough so that they can adapt.

Whatever the case, the age of free ice roaming populations is certainly coming to a close in the relatively near future.

Folks, I remember when I started college back in 1970. My fraternity subscribed to all kinds of publications including the Harvard Business Review. An article in this publication quoted some interesting statistics which stuck with me. It seems at that time America had somewhere arround 18/20% of the worlds population yet consumed 75% of the world's natural resources. We set the price then as the competion for the resources was somewhat weak. Today as Matt points out, other nations vie for these resources; not only oil, but copper, iron, tin, magnesium, etc. All of these comodities are going rapidly up in price as the nations compete for a basically fixed supply.To further complicate the math the dollar is losing value on the open market every day. Countries of the oil producing world and China are awash in dollars making them worth less and less. Folks,unless we get off our collective a... and get our production base back we will lose. There is talk in the commodities market of basing the price of oil on the Euro. If this happens; you'll wish for $4/ gallon gas. Don't blame it on the tree huggers, liberals, capitalists,or whoever. Fix the problem not the blame. Wealth is built on creating it through manufacturing not flipping futures, real estate, or whatever. I tell people Henry Ford, Walter P. Chrysler, Andrew Carnegie, Charlie Nash and titans of industry didn't go crying to our government saying; the Europeans have the automobile, the Europeans have the steel mills; they built bigger and better. Face it folks, oil is a limited resource that is rapidly being used up and under great demand pressures. We are in a recession and may be headed for much worse....America no longer dominates the world markets as it did for so many years. Now is the time to compete again

HarryJ,

You are trying to make sense (and doing a good job of it) but that will get you in trouble with sooooo many people on here that like to be in the blame-placing business.

It is almost as if fixing blame has gotten to be part of our Gross National Product. Watched any of the political ads lately? "He messed it up, but trust me (vote for me) and my big gov plans to save you!"

Life is good on Fantasy Farm!

Yup, And 20 some years ago Time magazine ran a cover showing New York City Covered in ice and the current "scientific consensus" was we were on the cusp of a new "ice age". There were actually plans floated to spread black carbon dust on the polar caps to melt them because the sea levels would soon be dropping. Run, run, run for your lives.......the sky is falling. Maybe Al Gore can save us. HAW HAW HAW.
The climate cycles up, and the climate cycles down. 1000 years ago Greenland was just that. 500 years ago there was the Little Ice Age. Then it got warm again. There were Polar bears then. There are Polar bears now. And so it goes........Bob

$5/Gallon Gas and the (Nonexistent) Silver Bullet…

The current and rising price of motor fuel in the US is the best thing that can happen to us. Heresy, say you? It’s going to bankrupt me, you say? It’s going to be painful over the next ten years as we adjust to the real world… a world with Indian and Chinese economies competing for resources. High prices are a blessing in disguise because they will force us to change (read that IMPROVE) the way we do things. One primary way is to reduce petroleum consumption. We’ll not likely remove it from use in the foreseeable future, but we are certainly facing significant reductions.

Prediction 1: The immediate (next 10-20 year) interim fix will be plug-in hybrids for most personal transportation requirements… Why?
-- It’s a logical extension of proven and affordable technology (Toyota synergy drive)
-- It will satisfy a major portion of the average ‘Daily Trip’ mileage for personal vehicles (about 42 miles/day) without using motor fuel. The only limiting factor right now is lithium-ion battery technology for heat generation and cycle durability, and that’s getting better every day)
-- The consumer will have to accept the cost of end point service installation as a part of doing business. Can’t rant for less/smaller government on one hand and ask for handouts on the other.
-- Use of motor fuel still enables significant flexibility to make extended trips and periods where recharge is not available
-- Uses existing infrastructure (power grid) in an economical manner (bulk of recharge would be during off-peak night hours
-- Transfers emissions generation to a relatively few locations as opposed to each vehicle
-- Can use evolving technology coal power generation (we’ve got lots of coal…) and the coal power emissions problems can be solved. Not cheaply, but they can be solved, perhaps with a plug in vehicle surcharge (hey, you’ve dropped the energy cost per mile by a factor of five or so… you can afford to give some back…)
-- Reduced motor fuel demand will help check prices for commerce transportation.

Prediction 2: High density population areas currently without effective mass transit (like Southern California) will be forced to build that infrastructure to remain economically competitive in the long term.

Prediction 3: The continued fuel of choice for long distance, high speed, non-stop travel will continue to be petroleum based, because:
-- Installed infrastructure
-- Pound for pound, there has yet to be a more affordable, portable, useable, or energy efficient fuel developed

Prediction 4: Exotic solutions like fuel cells and hydrogen power for personal vehicles will not be a reality in our lifetimes, if ever, because:
-- The cost of fuel cell technology is just too high
-- The reality of handling hydrogen fuel in day-to-day use is very difficult due primarily to the cryogenic requirements and the molecular size of hydrogen. It just leaks too readily unless exceptional care is used in manufacturing, machining, assembling, and maintaining hydrogen systems (read: EXPENSIVE)

Prediction 5: Let them haggle over Euros. The reality is that Western Europe as we know it is not economically viable and is likely on its last two decades. Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands have imported huge numbers of foreign workers just to keep the system going. Guess where the workers are coming from…? And, guess what non-assimilating religion they represent? They don’t give a flip for the Western European way. They’re also reproducing at a rate of four times that of the host population.

Prediction 6: Our insane obsession with bottled water will end. Anyone care to guess how much petroleum goes to ship water, provide energy for purification, and make all those billions of PET bottles? [censored] (Author's Note: Censored word was a coarser version of 'complain' frequently used in reference to a female canine of reproductive age) about $4/gallon fuel and buy $12/gallon tap water by the case that has a huge waste stream and big carbon footprint. Algore is proud!

Prediction 7a and 7b: We won’t be shipping water to the Arabs. We’re going to be struggling to have enough of our own. We’re also going to end this folly of growing food crops, or any other crops, to make ethanol. We’re also going to see the true cost of feeding ourselves rise to the real world cost. It will hurt our wallets, but you’ll lose enough weight that you won’t mind. If you think this is a joke, review recent news stories on the rice and wheat prices and shortages…

Prediction 8: We’re going to do fine. There will be painful displacements while everything sorts out, but there always have been. Ask a coach whip or button hook maker. As a group, we’re very flexible and resourceful.

Statement 1: The US will continue to dominate the world economically, politically, and militarily. This will continue to annoy everybody else. Until they need us.

Statement 2: Land is the source of all wealth, not manufacturing. Without the ability to control production from the land, organized manufacturing can not take place.

Cheers,
JMC

THAT was a most excellent post, John. +1 for you.

Let me just remind everyone we are discussing this on the Buick forum??.....

John, very well thought out and articulated. But, this is like deja-vu all over again. Near the very same things were said in the 1970's about a number of your predictions. I well remember Jimmy Carter saying we will never again be dependant on foreign oil. I also remember the White house tree being turned off and Jimmy wearing a sweater in the White House. (Conservation.) Solar tax credits and buzz about fusion power and coal liquification.(alternate sources). And grandious plans for new commuter lines that never happened. Maybe this time the forces at work are different. We shall see.
The point is, in view of the past, and history's very nasty habit of repeating itself, I salute you not only for your ability with words, but also for your optimisum.........Bob

Bob,

Thanks for your comments. All those intentions of yore cost too much. At the time, it was easier to revert to the old way. It's a different world now and those band aid fixes just won't suffice.

Cheers,
JMC

Excellent post, John. (Didn't somebody already say that? ) There's only one thing I'd like to add/comment on:


Those studies I spoke of that (partially) led me to buy the Prius sooner rather than later commented often on the future of transportaion. One thing that was universally agreed upon was the imminent death of large scale commercial aviation, the beginnings of which can be seen easily with the industry changes in the last 6 weeks.

Another universally agreed item was that the airlines will soon be replaced by a revitalized passenger rail system in the U.S. The seat-mpg of a passenger train cannot be beat! (Best of all, with features like the Auto Train it may be a way for us to take our cars to national meets in the future! )

Of course both trains and airliners use other oil fractions instead of petroleum, but that's immaterial.


This is why I mentioned the non-food sources for ethanol, like switchgrass. They should be able to be grown in non-crop suitable areas, and should still be net-generators of energy (from what I've read). If there were no hope of this it would be criminal to continue the work of developing an ethanol infrastructure.

I guess that was 2 things.

Bob, none of this is correct. The pattern of past climate changes have been well documented by paleoclimatologists. Gas analyses in marine sediment cores and Antarctic ice cores are constantly being analysed, and a consistent/clear record of the earth's climate has been uncovered that goes back tens of millions of years. One thing is clear:

Nothing like the last 50 years has ever been seen in the history of the planet.

(Interestingly, for instance, here is a 35,000 year record of climate history recorded in cores taken from Greenland's ice cap. The first point to be taken is that the ice cap is at least that old. So much for the myth of Erik the Red's & Leif Erikson's green Greenland! Notice how it never comes within 4 degrees C of present day.)


If you're interested in learning more there are all sorts of authoritative sources for this information. You just have to look for it.

I don't think anyone's denying the current warming trend. The problem, in my mind, is no one REALLY knows the total reason. I notice that there are 10 degree C temperature swings in your 35K year graph. That's an enormous swing and, if indeed true, the climate did it all by itself with no input from man. This very strongly suggests that there are climate forces in effect that we have no control over. I don't think it will hurt to reduce CO2 emissions but I think it would be gross error to throw the worlds economy into a panic driven disarray.
I personally think that the ultimate solution to our energy and other resource problems is population control. Either we will have to practice reproductive restraint or "nature", being the ultimate leveler, will do it for us.
I understand the existence of viable colonies of farmers and herders in Greenland, that spanned several hundred years
is pretty well documented. I don't think that anyone is saying the entire land mass was free of ice, but rather that the warm cycle kept the sea free of pack ice and the warmer sea enabled the coastal areas to grow grass and some crops...........Bob

Pretty interesting article in Monday's WSJ regarding the probabilty of an "oil bubble". Some anylists see the price collapsing to as low as $50/bbl. Others see an $80/bbl long term price.
If you've got big set of stones and a strong stomach now might be a good time to short a few contracts.......Bob

OK, to bring this back to Buick, as some have suggested, then what do my fellow Buick think about the following:

1. What is the future of Buick in a world of high energy prices? A good friend of mine, who has been selling Buicks for nearly 35 years, said Buick's market is dying off every day and GM doesn't seem to be going after a new one. Should Buick go in a totally different direction, like Cadillac has seemed to do sucessfully?

2. If so, what should that direction be? Should Buick be the upscale luxury hybrid division of GM? If so, on what platform, perhaps based upon the Chevy Volt?

3. Should Buick have clones of other GM cars, or try to be a stand-alone division? Can ANY car company be a stand-alone division any more?

4. Should Buick import U.S.-spec versions of Chinese Buicks to be built here in the U.S.? Heresy, you say? Just look at how GM's Chinese version of Buick is outselling U.S. Buicks, AND getting more cutting-edge designs.

5. If gas prices stay high, should Buick take overseas versions of other GM luxury and near-luxury cars and transplant them here? If so, which ones, Opel (Germany) or Holden (Australia)?

While some of this may be controversial, even offensive to some, I don't want Buick to wake up one day and find they make the world's best buggy whips in a world with no demand for buggies.

Joe

I'm terrified of flying and take the train whenever it is a viable option. I love taking the train. I hope more destinations become possible in the future. One of the best trips I ever took was a train to Chicago a few years ago. What a wonderful way to travel. No fuss, no fighting with security, few delays, great scenery, lots of space to stretch out, no canned air, no kid kicking your seat and screeching, and a fraction of the cost of flying. I hope that energy prices make rail more viable for freight, too. There really is no cheaper way to move stuff around, including people.

I love these "universally agreed" upon deals. Most universally never pan out. Rail is a fantastic device to move large amounts of something, relatively slowly, between the same two places. For moving smaller amounts between various points quickly it's not so good.

When people fly they are buying time.

Air travel will never go away as long as anyone values their time.

What is happening however is that the well heeled are abandoning scheduled air lines in favor of charter flights, time share arrangements, or outright ownership of aircraft. My old company just ordered another corporate jet, costing $25,000,000. Why? To save TIME. They will have to wait 3 years for the new plane because they are in line to buy. BTW, travel in a personal jet is just about the most profligate waste of oil you could come up with. It is Al Gore's preferred method of travel.

That last sentence is NOT a political statement. This post IS Buick related because if diesel gets too much higher I most likely will blow Flint off this year.............Bob

Looks like someone hit the hot button with this post! Ah, just to keep this part of a Buick forum, I'd like to say that I hope I can drive my old Buick's for a long time to come. And by the way, hey Bob, I thought that secret bank account in Nigeria was mine. I mean I get mail on that all of the time!

And a question: I've been buying gas at Costco these days. The last time I was filling up the '50 I noticed on the pump that the fuel was mixed with 10% Ethanol. Is this a problem for my old, un-restored Straight 8?

Gary