1934 Packard V12 as an investment

[tbirdman]

I wanted to gather thoughts on my possible purchase of a 1934 Convertible Victoria Packard V12 that from what I can gather, a small step below a concours car in quality. I started a few months ago deciding I wanted a Packard and of course have migrated to one of the more expensive models. As you know these cars are not inexpensive but represent one of the more desirable Packards (V12, 1934 and convertible). I'm looking at the car as an investment that I hope will increase in value over time. I'm 49 so I should be looking at muscle cars, but I have little interest in them.

Do you think that these high end cars will continue to increase in value even as those that have the most interest in them pass on? I'm planning to finance about half of this purchase with a home equity loan or would it be wiser to step down to amore reasonable Super 8 model.

I plan to drive it proably about a 1K miles per year.

[Guest Chuck Conrad]

Buy the car because you love it. That is the only sane reason to buy any collector car, unless you are a professional reseller. If the car "speaks to you," when others don't, then you've found your car!

Nobody can predict how a particular collectible will do over the years, but looking at the history of collector cars might be a good idea. When it comes to price, most of them follow a bell curve. They start out cheap, soar to ridiculous heights, and eventually stabilize at a more rational selling point. Most cars tend peak when the people who ?remember them when they were new" reach the age of 45-55 years old. These folks often have a little extra disposable income, and are searching for a connection to their youth. In another ten years or so, the cars tend to lose some of their value from their peak prices as those buyers decide they no longer want the car.

In the case of a 1934 Packard, most folks who "remember them as new" are either retiring from the hobby, or sadly are no longer with us. That could signify an ebb in the car?s apparent value.

As an example, about 15 years ago, you could hardly give away a Brass Era car. The people who had cared from them were no longer around. This made for some real bargains on some great cars. Today, brass is back, and in a big way. The current brass enthusiasts never knew these cars when they were new. In fact, there isn't anybody on the planet old enough to remember them when they were new. Nevertheless the cars endure and have greatly appreciated in value during the last few years.

Will history repeat itself? I don't know. But if you like the car and it gives you pleasure to own it, then I'd advise you to buy it. Assuming it is fairly priced, you probably won't lose money in the long run. You certainly wouldn't lose as much as you would if you went into a new car dealer and purchased a fully decked out Hummer H-2, for instance. I'm not picking on Hummer, but toys are toys. Some depreciate faster than others. At worst case, your Packard can be expected to hold most of its value.

Bottom line; don't buy any collector car with the idea of making money, unless that happens to be what you do for a living. Buy it because you like the car, and this is a great hobby where you and your family are going to have a lot of fun.

If you happen to hit the jackpot, more power to you.

<img src="http://forums.aaca.org/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

[Buicksplus]

T-bird:

Your question is a good one and Chuck's advice is excellent!

Regarding your Packard, the '34 is amongst the prettiest of all the senior Packards and the 12 makes it even more exceptional. This means you can probably expect this car to remain sought after by collectors indefinitely.

My own view of collector cars as investments is similar to Chuck's. Although there are flames fanned by the likes of Barrett-Jackson and many of the big auction companies, most collector cars are at best mediocre investments. Especially when you consider the real costs of storing, maintaining, and preserving your treasure. They have poor liquidity and do real bad in recessions (remember those? Yes, we may have another one someday).

Still, I doubt if your Packard will lose much value over the long haul, it may even appreciate a bit. And, if there is a Brad Pitt movie made where he tools around in a V12 Packard and gets all the girls in it, the price could skyrocket. But that is the unpredictable part. The predictable part is if you truly enjoy old cars and like the look and feel of this Packard, how can you lose? I would just make sure you research the car thoroughly to convince yourself that you are getting a car that you like which is mechanically and cosmetically sound for a fair price.

Good luck!

Bill

Albuquerque, NM

[tbirdman]

Bill and Chuck,

Thanks for the advice. Well, as a owner of a 64 T-Bird convertible, I'm waiting for the remake of Thelma and Louise. The reason I like the T-bird, is it not a car you see everyday.

T-bird

I struggle with whether to spend the extra $$$ on a V-12 or go with a Super Eight from 32-34. From what I understand, the V-12s are more desirable from a collector standpoint, but the Super 8 is a more desirable car if you drive it. The difference in price is very signficant.

As far as researching, I am doing the leg work and definitely won't buy without sound advice from someone who knows Packards.

I also struggle with "fair price" because these cars don't trade hands that often to create a market price. Also it appears that the old car price guides are way off on prices on these. So I'm struggling to try and figure what the fair price is.

[Guest BillP]

Nice looking T-Bird.

I have a '34 Packard Eight, and sometimes find myself standing in the garage, just looking at it.

If I had a hole in the garage to fill and was looking for another Packard, had narrowed the choices down as you have, and had no Packard experience, I would:

Join the Packard Club and go to the local and national meetings. Talk to the owners of 1930 to 1938 or so Packards. Learn about the various models, coachbuilders, maybe some company history if you're so inclined. In other words, become an expert. While you're doing this, research the restorers and the repair shops. Names will come up, both good and bad. Talk and Listen.

As far as the specific car is concerned, any car that has the cache', allure and market value of a twelve cylinder open Packard is subject to chicanery. Frames swaps, body swaps, engine swaps from Su8 to 12, etc. are not unheard of. Forewarned is scant protection but better than nothing. On your ideal car, proof of provenance back to the factory would be a plus. An old guy who got it from the original owner is just as good.

You ask about investment. If you are financing the purchase, it'll take a long time to get back to zero, much less go positive, especially counting storage, insurance, maintenance,etc., all of which you should figure if this is, after all, an investment. On the other hand, if this is a hobby, you go negative to get in, just like a sailboat, an airplane or a fishing camp. You have your fun and at the end you get out. After you total it all up, maybe you made a little, or broke even, or even lost a little. But Oh! the memories. Like roses in December.

PS, I'd get a Su8. Smooth, powerful, easy to drive, big straight 8, fine Packard engineering, nearly identical to the twelve except number of spark plugs and of course, the bar to entry.

***Editing here. The Twelve is a magnificent piece of machinery equal to the best of its time. Of course the differences between the Super 8 and the Twelve do not stop with number of cylinders. I could go on, everyone who knows these cars is familiar with both. Maybe a point to observe is that I have found that it is best to use these cars else deterioration will set in. An eight will serve as admirably as a twelve for the type of driving that is practical and safe in modern traffic. ~BP

[Guest J446]

IMO VERY few cars turn out to be investments. If you can afford something that you want your pleasure is the best return you will realize.

[tbirdman]

Bill,

Thanks for the advice. I've am joining my second Packard club tonight. The Packard owners I have talked with have been wonderful. I love it when they invite me over to their place for an "education". Besides the determining the originality and the quality of restoration plus the fair price, I need to figure if I want to dig deeper into my pockets for the V12 vs the Super 8. That difference is very significant ~$100K. As you pointed out both were very fine cars. I've also been advised that the S8 would be a much better car to enjoy if I drove it as it us easier to maintain.

At least if I buy a fully restored classic, I avoid the $80k invested, asking $40K problem you see so often.

[Buicksplus]

As mentioned by others, the 8cyl Packard is no slouch and spare parts for the engine are probably much easier to come by.....This striking convertible coupe (if I recall correctly, it is an 8) was on a recent VMCCA tour.

Most folks don't even know or care which engine is in these beautiful cars. But just like T-birds or '57 Chevies, cars are worth much much more if they have rare factory features like superchargers or fuel injection. Yet once the hood is closed and the car is on the road, who can tell the difference?

[K8096]

You're right, the car in your photo is a Standard Eight, not a Super Eight. The easiest way to tell the difference is the flatter headlight lenses, the Super Eight & Twelve had Veed headlight lenses. The Super Eight & Twelve were on similar chassis, while the Standard Eight was on a smaller, lighter chassis. That's why it's so easy to make a Super Eight into a Twelve. The hood length is also shorter on a Standard Eight, making it impossible to change it over to a Twelve. Originally, most 1932 - 1934 Packard Twelves had painted radiator shells and chrome louvers, while most Eights had chromed radiator shells and painted louvers. You could get any combination of these however, at an additional cost. You might want to get a copy of the book "The Magnificant Packard Twelve of Nineteen Hundred and Thirtyfour" Written in the late 60's or 70's, it chronicals all of the different body styles available in 1934 along with cars known to exist at that time. I forgot who the author was. For regular driving, a Super Eight may be more practical than a Twelve. The gas mileage would be a little better, and since the car is a little lighter, may be a bit more "nimble" in handling than a Twelve. But, I will close in saying nothing beats the prestige of a Twelve. I remember a few years back I was putting air in the tires of my Twelve at a local gas station when a 16 year old gas jockey comes up to me and says in a smart ass voice "what's it got in it, a big six?" You should have seen the look on his face what I told him, "no, it's a V Twelve." Priceless.

[CrosleyV13]

For TBIRDMAN: (regarding his question about a classic-era Packard as an investment)

You would be well advised to read OVER AND OVER again Chuck Conrad's comments (see above). Chuck was being too modest in his "post" - he did not tell you his background, and why his comments should be taken so seriously. He is currently the National President of the Classic Car Club Of America. Over the years, he has developed a rich background and understanding of the old car hobby. I can not over emphasize the value to you, in LISTENING to his suggestion that you only buy an expensive classic era car because "it talks to you" and you KNOW that particular car is for YOU !

I would like to add to the many valid comments in this "thread" with an additional suggestion. Get a COMPETENT appraiser to go over the car you are considering. When you are talking about many tens of thousands of dollars for a purchase, the few hundred dollars spent on (again COMPETENT) appraiser would be well spent.

Here's the problem - for better or worse, the hobby of being involved in the big classic cars has changed over the years. In the early years of the CCCA, most of the members were personally involved in their cars and in their maintainence, and enjoyed them what they were as mechanical objects. Thus they were often driven regularly (some as daily drivers!). Thus if you bought one from another collector, the chances were good that it was in reasonably good driving condition (you sound like a fellow who wants, in addition to not getting "stuck" with a bad investment, someone who actually wants to enjoy a classic Packard for what it is).

These days, given what traffic and road conditions have become, the hobby has changed to reflect that. More and more of the so called "high value classics" are no longer driven regularly, if at all. Instead, their primary purpose is to "look good" and be competitive at car shows. This is where having the services of a COMPETENT appraiser, who understands what YOUR particular needs and interests are, are so important !

Many restoration shops correctly recognize there is no point to taking their customer's money to get involved in full mechanical restorations. They recognize they would be wasting their customer's money by spending too much time on the mechanical, rather than the apperance attributes.

Here's where this concerns YOU and your interest in purchasing a classic, and why you should have an apparaiser as a "back up" for your purchase decision.

You have indicated the particular car you are presently considering is a twelve cylinder Packard that may not be in "tip top ready-for-concourse" condition.

First of all, that means it would take MANY MANY thousands of dollars to bring it up to be competitive at a car show. That means in its present state, it may NOT be of much interest to a good number of current collectors.

Secondly, as others in this 'thread' have pointed out, many people in the old car hobby today could care less what is under the hood. Thus, whatever "restoration" this car may have had, may not have restored the full technical ability of the Packard Twelve. To that extent, I would have to agree with the posters who say the "Super Eight" Packards of that era might be a wiser choice. For the simple reason they are of a much earlier, simplier technology (that engine is a simple long-stroke "flat head", primitive enough to be easily brought into running conditions by less that totally dedicated mechanics!).

The Packard Twelve, on the other hand, can be like the little boys in the nursery rhyme "when they are good...they are very very good...and when they are bad...they are awful!". Too many of the Packard Twelves I have driven, that are show winners, are, yes, very pretty BUT they are mechanical nightmares, with sloppy handling, and relatively poor performance compared to what they are capable of. MANY thousands of dollars would be required to bring them back to decent driving condition. If you have any questions about what I am trying to tell you, get some engineering drawings of the Packard Super Eight series engines, and compare them with the much more modern Packard Twelve. "Elevation" drawings can be easily found - even in the owner's manuals!

The Packard Twelve was a much more advanced, and thus more complex design. Just as one example, it had wedge shaped pistons, an angle-shaped conbustion chamber, so that its block can not be bored with standard automotive boring bars. Thus, to the extent that many of the Packard Twelves on the market today were NOT given a correct mechanical restoration, I would have to agree with those that say they dont perform much different than the Super Eight series.

Obviously, if you are lucky enough to find a Packard Twelve that had a good MECHANICAL restoration by a LEGIT expert, it will do what it was designed to do. Be assured the Packard legend was well justified - no matter whether you finally wind up with a Packard Eight, (320 cu. in), a Packard Super Eight (384 cu. in) or a Packard Twelve (473 cu in.) you can be confident that within its price class, it will be the equal of anything else in that range. Also be assured that Packard "delivered" on its promise that you got what you paid for - thus of course the Packard Twelve, with its much more modern engine design, and much larger motor, certainly offered a superior driving experience, just as a Packard Super Eight offers a more satisfying driving experience than a Packard Eight (which, needless to say, was a great car for the money).

"You get what you pay for".... well..that is...if you were a NEW Packard buyer. You WILL get what YOU pay for, if you have a competent appraiser helping you make a decision as to which car to buy !

The "bottom line" here...is that KNOWLEDGE is your best defense against an unsatisfactory experience. So - again..consider Chuck Conrad's excellent advice..and back it up with the help of a COMPETENT appraiser who has a sound TECHNICAL background in the car of your choice.

Let us know how it works out !

[tbirdman]

Thanks for all of the replies. I think I understand the V12 argument thanks to all of your replies. Most of the replies from the Packard meeting I attended was if you plan to drive it, the Super 8 is a better way to go though nothing like the looks of a V12 when you open the hood. The other issue is that the V12 will stretch me even further than I had intended. Of course the Super 8 will stretch me further then I had intended, but that's the nature of when I go looking for something.

The otehr argumnet is that the V12 may hold it's value better then a Super 8, but that's hard to tell.

So I guess I'm back to looking for a Super 32-34 convertible.

[Ed Miller]

I own a 1933 Twelve Convertible Sedan. I have driven and ridden in several '32 through '34 Eights, Super Eights and Twelves. For driving, the Twelve is superior in smoothness (make that silky smooth) and acceleration. Also you can drive your Packard and still maintain it in perfect condition if you are willing to spend the time, effort and money to do so. Packards built prior to 1932 are not fun to drive. You will find that almost all have terrible transmissions that take forever to shift and when you do shift it's at slow speeds. This means no acceleration. The Twelve can easily be shifted from 1st to 2nd at 35MPH and 2nd to 3rd at 50MPH almost as quickly as a modern vehicle. Also, beware, most sellers claim they're car is perfect when it may only be cosmeticly restored. Most "trailer queens" cannot be driven safely. A Packard has excellant brakes and is easy to handle. Good luck in your quest.

[tbirdman]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I own a 1933 Twelve Convertible Sedan. I have driven and ridden in several '32 through '34 Eights, Super Eights and Twelves. For driving, the Twelve is superior in smoothness (make that silky smooth) and acceleration. Also you can drive your Packard and still maintain it in perfect condition if you are willing to spend the time, effort and money to do so. Packards built prior to 1932 are not fun to drive. You will find that almost all have terrible transmissions that take forever to shift and when you do shift it's at slow speeds. This means no acceleration. The Twelve can easily be shifted from 1st to 2nd at 35MPH and 2nd to 3rd at 50MPH almost as quickly as a modern vehicle. Also, beware, most sellers claim they're car is perfect when it may only be cosmeticly restored. Most "trailer queens" cannot be driven safely. A Packard has excellant brakes and is easy to handle. Good luck in your quest. </div></div>

Ed,

I also looking at a 903. It a has a 4 speed without the synchromesh? Would I have the same problems with the transmission. I know later on in 32 Packard went to a syncromesh transmission.

Thanks,

Ken

[Ed Miller]

I have never run into a 1932 Packard without synchromesh in the top two gears. All writers agree that in early 1932 Packard used a four speed transmission. Some say it was the same as the previous year, i.e.: no synchromesh. Others say it had synchromesh. The fourth gear is useless it's lower than first gear. The answer to your question is yes. If there is such a thing as a 903 without synchromesh you will not like it if you intend to drive the car. By the way, Packard paid General Motors $1.25 royalty per transmission to use their patented synchromesh system.

[tbirdman]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I have never run into a 1932 Packard without synchromesh in the top two gears. All writers agree that in early 1932 Packard used a four speed transmission. Some say it was the same as the previous year, i.e.: no synchromesh. Others say it had synchromesh. The fourth gear is useless it's lower than first gear. The answer to your question is yes. If there is such a thing as a 903 without synchromesh you will not like it if you intend to drive the car. By the way, Packard paid General Motors $1.25 royalty per transmission to use their patented synchromesh system. </div></div>

Thanks. This is a priceless wealth of information as I continue my search for "My" Packard. Definitely finding a Packard is not as easy as finding a muscle car for sale. I've met quite of few nice Packard folks in my searches.

Ken

[CrosleyV13]

For T BIRDMAN: Re: your question as to whether or not to buy a '34 Packard 12 for investment, and the suggestions you buy an 8 cyl. Packard instead.

First and foremost, at the risk of repeating myself, I again suggest you carefully read Chuck Conrad's comments (see above ). As I noted in my earlier "post", Chuck was being too modest in not telling you at least SOMETHING about his background - he is the National President of the Classic Car Club Of America, and thus has a rich background in the issues surrounding classic cars. Bottom line - buy a collector car because it "talks" to you, meaning, once being exposed to it, you REALLY want it for what it IS as a mechanical device.

I have to disagree with some of the above comments about Packard eight cylinder cars, four speed transmissions, and Packard twelve cylinder cars.

Should you find a 1932 or earlier Packard eight cylinder car with the four speed (to my knowledge no Packard twelve cylinder car ever rolled out of 1580 East Grand Avenue with the four speed) and you like it, you will NOT be unhappy with the way it drives. C'mon, man...THINK ! The Packard Motor Car Company did not become a well-established legend by that era, by building cars that were not satisfying to drive ! Yes, it does take a bit of getting used to, to drive the earlier type transmissions. Those early Packards were MAGNIFICENT, both to look at and to drive. Can you shift them as fast as a modern-type transmission ? Once you get used to them, durn close. Is it fair to compare the way the eight cylinder cars drive and perform ( regardless of their transmissions), to the twelve cyliner car ? Of course not! Let me explain why.

The eight cylinder Packards of the classic era were designed in the early 1920's, at a time when there was no inter-state highway system, and thus little inter-city high speed driving AND low octane fuels. That is why the motors had such long strokes. They were designed to meet the driving and fuel conditions that most buyers were exposed to. That meant engines designed to provide power at low engine speeds. They dont produce much torque (with the compression ratios of the early 1920's, you can figure roughly 60% of the engine's displacement will be torque) but it comes on at low engine speeds, so it seems like they are very powerful.

Now, look what happened in the few years after the eights were designed. By the time the twelve cylinder engine was designed, the U.S. Highway system had been laid out, with many sections paved. Octane of fuels rose. Engineers knew this, understood the purchaser would be driving at much higher speeds. It should be no surprise that power-plants designed later reflected this. That is why we have the "super cars' such as the Pierce Arrow, Packard, and Lincoln V-12, and the Cadillac V-12 and V-16. These engines produced power over a broader rpm band, in part because of shorter strokes, and, especially in the case of the Packard V-12, vastly superior "breathing". Again, look at an "elevation" drawing of a cross section of the eight cylinder Packard, and compare it to the twelve. LOOK at those wedge-shaped combustion chambers and "free breathing" intake and exhaust manifolds of the twelve cylinder Packard - is it any wonder that they produce almost 80% of THEIR displacement in torque, over a much wider rpm band ? Is it any wonder that this much more advanced engine design produces so much more raw power ? As the hot rodders like to say "there is no substitute for displacement" (especially when it is coupled with the advantages of later and more sophisticated technology !)

Be assured that the purchaser of a PROPERLY MAINTAINED eight cylinder pre-war Packard will get what he paid for. A marvelous driving experience consistant with what the car's motor was engineered to do, in its price range. Be equally assured that the purchaser of a PROPERLY MAINTAINED twelve cylinder Packard will also get what HE pays for ! He pays more, and gets more...duhh...! Again, Packard did NOT get that legendary reputation by cheating its customers!

Which gets us back to your question - you suggest you want a "driver" as well as an investment.

In terms of a driving experience that will give you a great deal of pleasure, I dont think you will go wrong in the purchase of ANY big-engined classic car, provided it was properly maintained. This is where "expert" advice is called for. I again suggest (again, AFTER you have re read Chuck's comments !) that you hire an appraiser FAMILIAR with technical aspects of the particular make and model you are familiar with, BEFORE buying!.

As an "investment", well...some years ago, in one of our hobby publications, someone did a graph showing the comparison between just sticking the same amount of money into a bank Certificate Of Deposit, and maintaining a "collectable" car. You guessed it - the car "investment" came out a poor second best.

So - there you are - KNOWLEDGE is the key. Are you lucky enough to live out in the country, where there is the kind of driving experience that will permit you to enjoy the superior performance (especially in the upper speed ranges) that a twelve cylinder Packard offers over and above the eight cylinder cars? Or do you live in one of our metropolitan areas, where road speeds are limited by horrid traffic ( when they are not flying bumper to bumper at speeds insane for the road and traffic conditions..)? These are all questions that KNOWLEDGE will help you make a wise decision for your particular needs. GOOD LUCK !

[tbirdman]

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

In terms of a driving experience that will give you a great deal of pleasure, I dont think you will go wrong in the purchase of ANY big-engined classic car, provided it was properly maintained. This is where "expert" advice is called for. I again suggest (again, AFTER you have re read Chuck's comments !) that you hire an appraiser FAMILIAR with technical aspects of the particular make and model you are familiar with, BEFORE buying!.

As an "investment", well...some years ago, in one of our hobby publications, someone did a graph showing the comparison between just sticking the same amount of money into a bank Certificate Of Deposit, and maintaining a "collectable" car. You guessed it - the car "investment" came out a poor second best.

So - there you are - KNOWLEDGE is the key. Are you lucky enough to live out in the country, where there is the kind of driving experience that will permit you to enjoy the superior performance (especially in the upper speed ranges) that a twelve cylinder Packard offers over and above the eight cylinder cars? Or do you live in one of our metropolitan areas, where road speeds are limited by horrid traffic ( when they are not flying bumper to bumper at speeds insane for the road and traffic conditions..)? These are all questions that KNOWLEDGE will help you make a wise decision for your particular needs. GOOD LUCK ! </div></div>

I will definitely get a knowledgeable appraiser before I buy any car. The one thing you have to factor in whether it was a good investment, is the pleasure you receive from owning one of these cars. That cannot be measured in $. However I understand that from the $ ROI, stocks would be better. However last time I checked, it was hard to drive a stock portfolio no matter what engine you had Howevr I have recalibrated my thoughts of what type of investment this will be.

[West Peterson]

[Get a COMPETENT appraiser to go over the car you are considering. When you are talking about many tens of thousands of dollars for a purchase, the few hundred dollars spent on (again COMPETENT) appraiser would be well spent.]

CrosleyV13: You are so right to state and re-state Competent. One thing that should be added is that there are many people who rely on dealers and/or auction company officials for advice and expertise. There is a serious issue of conflict of interest here that is being ignored.

[tbirdman]

I do have a name that has been recommended to me. Would it be proper to ask about this person in this forum as his compentency?

[tbirdman]

I went to look at the car yesterday with a person who knows these Packards. Cosmetically not a bad car and mostly correct. But the steering was tight and squirrely. Very hard to drive. I did not know how they should drive so I had this person drive it. He agreed with me. Also the cltch didn't engage until the pedal was let out almost all the way. That seemed like an adjustment was needed there.Brakes did pull on hard stops. Biggest issue was the engine. It smoked, had some noises that sounded like lifter issues, and it ran rough. It did start quickly. The owner claimed it smoked because he had added some marvel mystery oil.

I'm walking away from this deal.

Thanks for your advice.