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So Tesla is tanking... your thoughts?


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9 hours ago, charlier said:

 

Maybe it is just me, but I would NEVER buy a new vehicle without seeing it in person and taking a test drive. How could one do this if it is sold online-only?

 

 

As I understand the new policy, you have a week or 1,000 miles to decide if you want the car.  If you drive it for a few days and decide you don't like it, you can return it and get a full refund.  From the Tesla blog:

 

You can now buy a Tesla in North America via your phone in about 1 minute, and that capability will soon be extended worldwide. We are also making it much easier to try out and return a Tesla, so that a test drive prior to purchase isn’t needed. You can now return a car within 7 days or 1,000 miles for a full refund. Quite literally, you could buy a Tesla, drive several hundred miles for a weekend road trip with friends and then return it for free.

 

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9 hours ago, charlier said:

 

Maybe it is just me, but I would NEVER buy a new vehicle without seeing it in person and taking a test drive. How could one do this if it is sold online-only?

 

 

 

 

 

I agree with you charlier. It isn't a very logical way to do things. Some people may still opt to do it, however. In their mind, it's the modern way to do things, so it can't be wrong.

 

Musicians I've known would buy expensive instruments online, and I thought that was weird, too. All they could think about was the good deal they got compared to local stores...rather than if the big purchase they made got them the right instrument.

Edited by JamesR (see edit history)
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11 minutes ago, 1935Packard said:

 

As I understand the new policy, you have a week or 1,000 miles to decide if you want the car.  If you drive it for a few days and decide you don't like it, you can return it and get a full refund.  From the Tesla blog:

 

You can now buy a Tesla in North America via your phone in about 1 minute, and that capability will soon be extended worldwide. We are also making it much easier to try out and return a Tesla, so that a test drive prior to purchase isn’t needed. You can now return a car within 7 days or 1,000 miles for a full refund. Quite literally, you could buy a Tesla, drive several hundred miles for a weekend road trip with friends and then return it for free.

 

 

WoW!!! This will rock the industry.

 

Shows alot of confidence in their product.

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7 minutes ago, maok said:

 

WoW!!! This will rock the industry.

 

Shows alot of confidence in their product.

 

Yes,  so much for "it loses 20% of its value when you drive it off the lot."    Of course, there's also now no lot. :)

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5 minutes ago, 1935Packard said:

 

Yes,  so much for "it loses 20% of its value when you drive it off the lot."    Of course, there's also now no lot. :)

I wonder if they will wind the odometer back to zero for the returned units. Hang on, does a Tesla have an odometer?

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Tesla's sometimes-applicable tax credit was halved starting Jan 1. No doubt there was some 'pull-ahead' with that in mind.
Oct '18 Model 3 sales : 17,750
Nov '18 Model 3 sales : 18,650
Dec '18 Model 3 sales : 25,250
Jan '19 Model 3 sales : 6,500 - down 75%
Feb
'19 Model 3 sales : 5,750 - down 12%

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WoW!!! This will rock the industry.

 

Nothing new in the industry, in one variation or another it has been done before by several manufacturers.  Most things new are in fact old!:D  There is a solid business case for doing so and as a former new car dealer I can tell you that in the end it seems to work out well for the consumer, manufacturer and dealer.

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8 hours ago, 1935Packard said:

 

As I understand the new policy, you have a week or 1,000 miles to decide if you want the car.  If you drive it for a few days and decide you don't like it, you can return it and get a full refund.  From the Tesla blog:

 

You can now buy a Tesla in North America via your phone in about 1 minute, and that capability will soon be extended worldwide. We are also making it much easier to try out and return a Tesla, so that a test drive prior to purchase isn’t needed. You can now return a car within 7 days or 1,000 miles for a full refund. Quite literally, you could buy a Tesla, drive several hundred miles for a weekend road trip with friends and then return it for free.

 

 

A google search reveals that Tesla has changed their refund policy a few times with some VERY SHORT return times. One has to wonder how long the current policy of 7 days or 1000 miles will remain in force.


Here is one report regarding refunds, seems there is trouble in paradise.

 

Tesla customers describe maddening problems with returns and refunds

 

Waiting 1-2+ months for a refund would be an issue for me and most people I know. A bank loan would further complicate a refund when Tesla drags their feet with a refund and potentially cost the customer interest on a loan for a car that was returned.

 

I do not know about other people but I also use test drives of vehicles to evaluate options and features on a vehicle. During those test drives I finalize what options work for me and what options do not. An on-line sales model simply cannot do that and a 1 week return policy would not help with that.

 

Back to the original post "Is Tesla Tanking" theme.....One person's thoughts but still interesting information and take on Tesla....

 

Tesla: The Master Plan Begins To Unravel

 

 

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expecting a refund from a company that is losing billions is like saying, sure I trust you................. yawn.

 

the policy of refunds makes no sense when you are under such financial constraints.

 

so many "ideas" of Tesla are quite quirky!

 

 

 

ps invent the battery- they will come.

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  • 3 weeks later...
1 hour ago, countrytravler said:

Tesla bought a fleet of car haulers. The trucks cost an average 250K. They are still adding on to the factory.

 

"bought"?

I thought they were supposed to be about ready to build Electric Semi trucks which they unveiled in November of 2017.

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12 minutes ago, MCHinson said:

 

"bought"?

I thought they were supposed to be about ready to build Electric Semi trucks which they unveiled in November of 2017.

These trucks are used to haul cross country. No electric truck is made to perform that task. Electric trucks would be local only. A company just spent 95 mill on a fleet of electric trucks in San Diego

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12 minutes ago, countrytravler said:

These trucks are used to haul cross country. No electric truck is made to perform that task. Electric trucks would be local only. A company just spent 95 mill on a fleet of electric trucks in San Diego

With the Telsa Semi's advertised range of 500 miles I would think that they would be using their own trucks for deliveries. Since I have not bought a new vehicle since 1990, I am not their target customer, but when I see them delivering electric cars via electric semi, I will be much more likely to take them seriously.  

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1 hour ago, padgett said:

So six months later (first post was last Sept) Tesla is still tanking ?

 

Give it time. Their semi is vaporware and the truck fleet they bought is parked in a lot near Fremont.

Worse still, the SEC has asked a judge to find Elon in contempt of court for violating the previous agreement they entered into.

 

Dave: I genuinely hope they pay you in advance.

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43EC555F-F12E-4035-AA36-FE105AE21485.jpeg

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13 hours ago, MCHinson said:

With the Telsa Semi's advertised range of 500 miles I would think that they would be using their own trucks for deliveries. Since I have not bought a new vehicle since 1990, I am not their target customer, but when I see them delivering electric cars via electric semi, I will be much more likely to take them seriously.  

If you read the content, Says Canada and Chicago. More than 500 miles. They would be used for local deliveries from terminals.

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10 hours ago, Buick64C said:

 

Give it time. Their semi is vaporware and the truck fleet they bought is parked in a lot near Fremont.

Worse still, the SEC has asked a judge to find Elon in contempt of court for violating the previous agreement they entered into.

 

Dave: I genuinely hope they pay you in advance.

751F1605-17D5-403A-9B05-A2E98DFDA6CC.jpeg

43EC555F-F12E-4035-AA36-FE105AE21485.jpeg

Been hauling for 2 years now. No money issues. GM is another story. No one pays in advance. Most of those trucks are long distance car haulers that Tesla bought. They approached me to be a driver. They offer a very good package. I'm very happy where I'm at. 

 

 

Edited by countrytravler (see edit history)
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17 hours ago, countrytravler said:

We just pulled a load out of Tesla. Load going to Chicago. A lot of loads going north to Canada. 40 plus trucks loading and Tesla bought a fleet of car haulers. The trucks cost an average 250K. They are still adding on to the factory.

 

Is it normal for a car company to transport their products on car haulers for 2000+ miles?

One would think it would be much more cost effective and easier to use rail car transport once the distance gets further than a certain number of miles or a certain number of cars needing transport?  Is this normal for the industry or is Tesla making more poor business decisions again?

 

When you say Tesla is adding on to the factory, are they actually replacing the "Tent" with a real, permanent building?

 

Given their announced new SUV, Semi and pickup, Tesla will need a LOT more capital to add onto or build new plants for those vehicles and also increase battery production at the battery plant(s).

 

So Tesla bought a fleet of car haulers. That is very interesting. With a National Shortage of truck drivers (some say 60K or more drivers are needed) where does Tesla think they will magically get drivers from? Some of the national carriers have pretty deep pockets that Tesla will be competing against when it comes to recruiting drivers.

 

Should be interesting to see how this all plays out especially given the increased competition Tesla is facing both in the short and long term. Stay tuned.

 

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I see a lot of Teslas on the road. Few Nissan Leafs (Leaves?) now; they seem to have fallen out of favor, after at first being the most common electric vehicle. It's impressive what Tesla has been able to accomplish. It still looks like they will ultimately fail though They are selling a premium product, with a high mark-up, profit margin, like Apple with their IPhone. Yet still struggle trying to turn a profit. All the major manufacturers are looking to take business away from them. Their balance sheet and income (profit/loss) can be seen easily here at these Yahoo links.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/balance-sheet?p=TSLA

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/financials?p=TSLA

 

Edit: Actually they have shown a profit the last two quarters.

 

 

Edited by mike6024
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I am no financial wizard. I am just a guy who runs a small business. In my experience, you need to turn a profit to stay in business. You can't operate a business at a loss forever, no matter how wonderful your product is. Even the federal government can't finance a private business forever although it certainly seems to have done a bit more of that than I personally think is prudent.  

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  • 2 weeks later...
 
 
 
 
. Tesla's big drop: Shares in Tesla (TSLA) plunged 7% in extended trading after the company reported a massive sales drop.
About 63,000 vehicles were delivered to customers in the first three months of 2019 — a 31% drop compared to the prior quarter. The total sales figures included about 50,900 Model 3 sedans, Tesla's best-selling vehicle, and 12,100 luxury Model S sedans and Model X SUVs.
The sales figures do not come as a shock: Wall Street analysts expected sales and deliveries of the Model 3 to be about 50,000. And Tesla had already said it expected Model S and Model X deliveries to be lower than they were a year earlier. The company said it's confident it will reach its annual sales goal.
 
See Tesla's new Model Y
 
 
See Tesla's new Model Y
 

 

 

 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current Time 0:37
/
Duration Time 1:19
 
 
 
 
Now Playing See Tesla's new Model Y
 
 

London (CNN Business)1. Tesla sales: Tesla is probably about to report the largest drop in auto sales in the company's history.

That's not a shock —Tesla faced some special circumstances last quarter. But it's still a concern: The company needs to keep its sales pace high to pay down its sizable debts.
Analysts expect Tesla to report Tuesday that the number of cars it delivered during the first quarter dropped sharply from 90,700 in the previous three months.
One reason for the expected drop is that Tesla rushed to complete some sales last year so buyers could take advantage of an expiring US tax credit. A second is that a new push on international sales has been a logistical challenge.
Shares in Tesla (TSLA) have slumped over 13% so far this year.
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About 63,000 vehicles were delivered to customers in the first three months of 2019 — a 31% drop compared to the prior quarter.



It's important & significant to note the above number is GLOBAL sales- which no other brand selling here reports as the only number. Tesla never specifies this.
U.S. sales in Q1 2019 were 30,600, and vs. Q4 2018... dropped SIXTY-ONE percent. That's a fairly catastrophic drop. Edsel didn't even drop over 50% from '58 to '59.

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It’s interesting to watch it play out........they are building LOTS of cars considering how new they are to the marketplace as a real player. That being said, the numbers involved are CRAZY HUGE and almost beyond comprehension. Weather or not an electric car is a good idea, they have proved one can be built and marketed, there is demand, and people are looking for alternatives to what has been offered for the last 100 years. Is Tesla’s economic model safe, stable, logical, and possible to keep moving forward into the foreseeable future.........I don’t know, but my gut tells me it’s 75 to 1 or 100 to 1 that the current model of business operation is sustainable. Interesting article in the WSJ stated that 60 percent of the value of Honda Motor Cars Inc. was the dealership network in North America. (IE- more than half the value of ALL of Honda is the US dealer network!)Think about that for a minute, and realize that they have no dealer network. Now the question is, what is the future of car dealers. Very interesting to ponder.........

Edited by edinmass (see edit history)
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40 minutes ago, WQ59B said:

 



It's important & significant to note the above number is GLOBAL sales- which no other brand selling here reports as the only number. Tesla never specifies this.
U.S. sales in Q1 2019 were 30,600, and vs. Q4 2018... dropped SIXTY-ONE percent. That's a fairly catastrophic drop. Edsel didn't even drop over 50% from '58 to '59.

The Tesla auto sales are unique in that international sales are a major contributor to their business and not a sideline.  Edsel was not looking to be an international player so a comparison to it is not really equal.  Also, these are cars going directly to paid customers, not to a dealer lot looking for buyers.  Europe and Asia are rich markets for EV products which explains why so many non US auto brands are looking for a piece of that action.

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As I commented before, Tesla isn’t just a car. It’s half car, half tv, half computer, and half something else. Technology in it is fantastic.......I have had one apart in my hands. It’s hard to describe how advanced it is compared  to any other vehicle. I think people are still trying to figure out what it is, what they want in a electric car, how to use and consume it, it’s value as a used and junk car, etc. Recently I moved from New England to South Florida. I went from 12 thousand miles per year on my every day car to less then two thousand. Thus, a Tesla would be fine. I wouldn’t want it as my only transportation. Maybe when I’m old. I think a Tesla is a lot like modern computers......you can have a desk top, lap top, tablet, or smart phone. I have all four of them, and multiple copies. Never thought I would want or use this much technology. Makes life better in many ways, and worse in some. The same I think is Tesla’s future, if it has one.......it hasn’t been figured out yet.  I wonder if it needs to go bankrupt and then start over without all the debt........that may be it’s future.......or not.

Edited by edinmass (see edit history)
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3 hours ago, TerryB said:

The Tesla auto sales are unique in that international sales are a major contributor to their business and not a sideline.  Edsel was not looking to be an international player so a comparison to it is not really equal. 

The comparison was quarter-to-quarter sales drop in the U.S., against a year-to-year sales drop in the U.S. of a brand (that would fail within weeks of that 2nd 'Y' total). It's legitimate, regardless of what may or may not be sold in other markets. Will Tesla survive? Who knows?? Frankly, by the numbers; the company should already be stone cold dead. The losses are catastrophically high- it will take YEARS to erase them even if every quarter was profitable from now on. Time will tell.

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2 hours ago, WQ59B said:

The comparison was quarter-to-quarter sales drop in the U.S., against a year-to-year sales drop in the U.S. of a brand (that would fail within weeks of that 2nd 'Y' total). It's legitimate, regardless of what may or may not be sold in other markets. Will Tesla survive? Who knows?? Frankly, by the numbers; the company should already be stone cold dead. The losses are catastrophically high- it will take YEARS to erase them even if every quarter was profitable from now on. Time will tell.

 

Although this was a 31% quarter-to-quarter drop, it's perhaps worth noting that it was after a massive increase in earlier quarter-to-quarter sales: 

 

1888118355_ScreenShot2019-04-04at11_07_47PM.png.b2098e75b2b092e270e5a3a514bae7dc.png

 

I assume that some of those high Q3 and Q4 2018 numbers led to the lower Q1 2019 numbers given the decreasing tax break: I gather that some of those wanting a Tesla were trying to buy one before the tax break dropped by $3750 starting in Q1 2019.  Or at least that's my understanding.

 

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They had a lot of pre-orders, with deposits, for the Model 3. So once they were being produced they could go straight to the buyers. So this is a transitory period. After that pent-up demand, and the "back orders" filled, things will need to even out. I don't think there will be that many new Tesla customers coming into the market once this initial surge is over.

 

http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries

 

 

Tesla Q1 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries

PALO ALTO, Calif., April 03, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In the first quarter, we produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X.

Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter. This included approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X.

Due to a massive increase in deliveries in Europe and China, which at times exceeded 5x that of prior peak delivery levels, and many challenges encountered for the first time, we had only delivered half of the entire quarter’s numbers by March 21, ten days before end of quarter. This caused a large number of vehicle deliveries to shift to the second quarter. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 10,600 vehicles were in transit to customers globally.

Because of the lower than expected delivery volumes and several pricing adjustments, we expect Q1 net income to be negatively impacted. Even so, we ended the quarter with sufficient cash on hand.

In North America, Model 3 was yet again the best-selling mid-sized premium sedan, selling 60% more units than the runner up. Inventory of Model 3 vehicles in North America remains exceptionally low, reaching about two weeks of supply at the end of Q1, compared to the industry average of 2-3 months. 

Despite pull forward of demand from Q1 2019 into Q4 2018 due to the step down in the federal tax credit, US orders for Model 3 vehicles significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver in Q1. We reaffirm our prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019. 

Given that Tesla vehicle production currently occurs entirely from one factory in the San Francisco Bay Area, but must be delivered to customers all around the world, production could be significantly higher than deliveries, as it was this quarter, when production exceeded deliveries by 22%.

We’ve just begun the global expansion of Model 3, and we want to thank our employees for their hard work and our customers for supporting our mission. We are doing everything we can to deliver cars globally as quickly as possible and look forward to continuing to scale deliveries throughout the year.

***************

Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q1 earnings. Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. We count a produced but undelivered vehicle to be in transit if the related customer has placed an order or paid the full purchase price for such vehicle. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5%. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

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Count me in with Ed.

 

The automotive press is in bed with the good old boys, all of whom have been bailed  by the taxpayers at one time or another.

Musk has broken the mold, and will continue to revolutionize the industry.

Watch the numbers when he completes the factory in China.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/23/2019 at 10:17 AM, charlier said:

 

 

Is it normal for a car company to transport their products on car haulers for 2000+ miles?

One would think it would be much more cost effective and easier to use rail car transport once the distance gets further than a certain number of miles or a certain number of cars needing transport?  Is this normal for the industry or is Tesla making more poor business decisions again?

 

When you say Tesla is adding on to the factory, are they actually replacing the "Tent" with a real, permanent building?

 

Given their announced new SUV, Semi and pickup, Tesla will need a LOT more capital to add onto or build new plants for those vehicles and also increase battery production at the battery plant(s).

 

So Tesla bought a fleet of car haulers. That is very interesting. With a National Shortage of truck drivers (some say 60K or more drivers are needed) where does Tesla think they will magically get drivers from? Some of the national carriers have pretty deep pockets that Tesla will be competing against when it comes to recruiting drivers.

 

Should be interesting to see how this all plays out especially given the increased competition Tesla is facing both in the short and long term. Stay tuned.

 

Yes, it is common to have cars transported over 2000 miles. 50K plus car haulers do this on a regular basis including myself. Been doing this off and on since the 60s. Not much of a problem getting drivers. They can make in the 6 figures. Not any shortage of drivers, the shortage is the big companies willing to pay. 

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On 3/22/2019 at 5:19 PM, MCHinson said:

 

"bought"?

I thought they were supposed to be about ready to build Electric Semi trucks which they unveiled in November of 2017.

These trucks are used to haul cross country. No electric truck is made to perform that task. Electric trucks would be local only. A company just spent 95 million on a fleet of electric trucks in San Diego

Edited by countrytravler (see edit history)
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On 3/23/2019 at 2:36 PM, MCHinson said:

I am no financial wizard. I am just a guy who runs a small business. In my experience, you need to turn a profit to stay in business. You can't operate a business at a loss forever, no matter how wonderful your product is. 

 

Looks like Panasonic has decided that investing in the Gigafactory expansion in the USA and the one being built in China is NOT in their financial best interest.

 

Panasonic stops investing in Tesla Gigafactories as sales slump

 

Without enough capacity at the USA & China Factories how will Tesla be able to build the Tesla cars, newly announced SUV, Semi and Pickup especially since the Semi requires so many more battery packs. Given Tesla's cash-flow, sales and debt load it appears unlikely that Tesla will be able fund the USA Gigafactory expansion or build the China factory by itself. Time will tell if another company like Panasonic (with deep enough pockets) will jump into a battery partnership with Tesla. Stay tuned.

 

Then there are the Tesla Layoffs last week. Tesla Layoffs 2019: Elon Musk Fires More Staff To Start Q2

 

 

 

 

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I can't read through 18 pages and have not followed this thread but I'll throw my two cents in cause that's what discussion forums are all about 😉

 

1.  I'm total old school when it comes to cars.   I self identify as a "car guy" and the internal combustion engine is what makes a car a "car".

 

2.  I despise the Prius and would MUCH rather drive a 1 ton diesel truck around town if given the choice.

 

3.  Elon Musk is a genius for many reasons,  but the easiest one to understand is he built an electric car that isn't a complete embarrassment to be seen in (see #2).

 

4.  Within 25 years we will all be driving Electric cars and for the most part they will be driving themselves.

 

I hope I'm wrong about #4, but don't think I am.   Dis-intermediating the source of energy from the delivery  (i.e. gas vs electricity) is an inevitable step for vehicles.

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Regarding your #4 point, it will be longer than that. Biggest hurdle will the liability issue. And also, IMO,  there  will be a need for integration with smart infracture, ie traffic lights, intersections etc.

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