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Packard 12 market -- tale of two estimates


1935Packard

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Auction estimates aren't particularly reliable signals of the market, but I was interested nonetheless in RM's estimates of two cars at its Hershey auction in a few weeks.  First, this restored '37 Twelve Convertible Sedan is estimated at $175K-$200K, and second this in-need-of-restoration '35 Twelve Convertible Victoria is estimated at $225K-$275K. I've usually thought that '37s are slightly higher in the market than '35s given their updated suspensions and better riding qualities.  So what explains the higher estimate on the '35, given that a complete restoration on the '35 could be a $200K to $300K undertaking (or at some shops, more)? Maybe it's just that the '35 appears to be an original convertible with original engine, etc., while the '37's history appears to be unknown.  Maybe it's just that "barn finds" still have an allure, or at least auction houses think or hope they do.  But it still struck me as a little odd, as the '35 has lots of non-original components and the '37 seems just from the pictures to be a relatively well done (although then clearly driven) restoration.  Or maybe people are beginning to realize that '35s are the best cars ever. :)

 

Or maybe the estimates are worthless as market signals, and the prices the cars actually get will have no relation to the estimates.  Either way, it struck me as interesting.

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The Victoria a very pretty car, and the convertible sedans of the time, while excellent cars, were a little awkward looking.

 

Also, why restore the 1935 Victoria?  Leave it like that and enjoy it....shiny is very expensive and not that much more fun to drive, if any......

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 A Convertible Victoria is I believe is more rare in survival than a Convertible Sedan. And, a Phaeton with sidecurtains is more rare to begin with all the way around than either a Convertible Sedan or Convertible Victoria.  1935 is a more rare car production volume wise (as is 1936).  1937's while still rare tend to be sort of dime a dozen as far as Packards go, though a 1937 will drive and handle better. 

 

I find 35's and 36's a bear to get certain parts for compared to 37 - and I get the impression it has been that way for a really long time - possibly why more 37's around.

 

We have a Super 8 Phaeton for sale:  http://www.significantcars.com/cars/1936packard10/

Edited by John_Mereness (see edit history)
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One explanation for the high auction estimate could be the person selling the 1935 victoria is closely associated with RM Auctions, so why not reach for the sky?   The car has already been advertised in the CCCA bulletin for many months with no bites, so what does that tell you?  I think the auction estimate of 225-275K is very high.  Why would you bid on a car at auction (and pay an additional 10% or so auction premium) that you know has been advertised for sale for many months earlier?  Undoubtedly, RM will find someone however, they always do.  Last year, a completely restored near 100 point blue 1937 Twelve conv. coupe sold for around 330K.  In my mind, the conv coupe is way more desirable (and better looking) than the victoria in the 1935-39 years.  I would think for 225-275K you would be able to buy a perfect 100 point 35-37 victoria.  

 

I don't think any 35-39 Senior Packard sedans have ever been converted to conv sedans.  It would be such a monumental task that it would be cheaper to buy an unrestored/older restoration authentic one to start with.  Think about it, the windshield frame is entirely different, you'd have to cut the tops off of 4 doors, fabricate metal window frames, fabricate a complex top mechanism, ect, ect.   It just wouldn't be worth it.   It's not a simple job like removing the top on a 1934 Packard coupe is in order to make it into a coupe roadster, as has been done many times already.   

 

I thought the auction estimate for the 1937 conv sedan seemed a little low too.  I'll see the car in person at Hershey in a week.  Maybe the restoration isn't as perfect as it looks in the pictures.  If that car were a true high point car, I would think it would be more in the 225-250K range.  But maybe the seller is motivated & they need it gone, or perhaps it's an estate sale.      

 

        

Edited by K8096 (see edit history)
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Thanks for the excellent comment, K8096.  I agree about the estimate on the '37 seeming low and the estimate on the '35 seeming really high.  And I noticed the '35 in the CCCA newsletter, too.  

 

In terms of my idea of convertible sedans having been rebodied, I was thinking of (and perhaps misrepresenting) this 2013 thread on Packard market values, and in particular this comment from Dave Mitchell explaining why he is "suspect of any open V12 if you can't provide some history of it." 

 

Quote

A car with history, even just back to the 50s or 60s where at least someone reliable knows that the car is correct, or photos or some paperwork exists is definitely more valuable than one with no provenence. I know collectors who have gone to look at Packard 12s and found them or the documentation suspect and walked away, or offered far less than "market value". You can't rely on the clubs policing this because it honestly isn't their role, and secondly when they try it isn't applied fairly - prominent members may get a pass. One reason for this is that people who swap bodies around - aren't usually trying to get a better driving 443 as in the above example - they are doing it to make a profit or get an open 12 for less than market value. These usually aren't restored to the highest level since profit is the goal, which doesn't make them the most sought after cars either. It is certainly a good idea to be a careful buyer. If I were to buy an early 30s Chrysler Imperial for instance, I wouldn't even consider it without talking to a friend of mine who knows which ones are real and which aren't. I know from my days on the CCCA classification committee that there are only a handful of those that are real. The real ones bring 2 - 3 times what the rebodied ones do. If I were new to the hobby I wouldn't buy an open Packard Super 8 or 12 without having someone who knows about them look at it. . . . . A body swap car usually has no history because the person who swapped it is trying to hide that fact, and these cars are more one dimensional. . . . My feeling is that the market usually rewards the more authentic cars.

 

Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean that 12 convertible sedans have been rebodied from closed sedans. 

 

Edited by 1935Packard (see edit history)
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I think that Jason did a good job of explaining and I agree that probably the Victoria has a high estimate.  Of course it is always amazing when you see a car that was available privately for months or years sell at an auction for 10% or more high than what you could have bought it for privately.  The grand daddy of them all when it comes to this was one of the 50s Dream cars that Barret/Jackson sold some years back.  The owner had been trying to privately sell it for 800k for some time,  BJ managed to get 2 million plus for it.

 

But just to go back to my original point,   Speedsters > Roadsters = Sport Phaetons (dual cowls) > Conv Coupes >  Stationary Coupes > Touring (straight Phaetons) > Convertible Sedans > Club Sedans > Sedans.



Rarity is a funny thing.  There are hundreds if not thousands of 67 427 Corvettes but they will always bring more money than a 37 Hupmobile of which a total of 168 were made in all body styles.

 

Rarity will increase desirability if the lack of supply is really greater than the demand.

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The other thing which is interesting is the way the value curve works on 31-38 Packards.   The value of the individual car is 90% the body but the year makes a big difference when comparing apples to apples.

 

32 has the V radiator and many mechanical improvements over the 31.

 

For me the 32 is the best looking of all the years but the 34 seems to bring the most money.  I have assume it is because 34 has the highest level of mechanical refinement before the pontoon fenders of 1935.

 

36 tends to bring more than 35 because of the slopped radiator.  The 37 is the 36 but with steel wheels and juice brakes.   I think some people prefer the wire wheels but the mechanical improvements make it a wash between those two years.

 

38 has the 3 on the tree and no long wheelbase so I think the 37 wins there.

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And by the way, speaking of rebodied cars, I've been told there are at least 2 1937 Twelve conv. coupes that had their body transplanted from a Super Eight.   A friend of mine who has an authentic one had a guy come over a few years ago & he was taking all these pictures & measurements of how the body fits on the back of the frame.   Turns out he was going to transplant a Super Eight body to a Twelve chassis & the way the body fits on the rear of the frame is different between the two.   Dave is right, you need proof of what the car was in the 1950's or earlier if it's a desirable body style before shelling out big money.     

Edited by K8096 (see edit history)
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Thanks for the correction on the column shift.  I forgot to mention the coil springs which are a big improvement.   When it comes to convertible coupe bodies on the V12 Packard you really need some history.  I would probably say the same thing on the Super 8 as the 12 is not really that much of a premium.  The issue is taking the body from a standard 8 and putting it on a Super or 12.

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K8096 wrote above: "One explanation for the high auction estimate could be the person selling the 1935 victoria is closely associated with RM Auctions, so why not reach for the sky?"  I had assumed that K8096 meant the first part of that as just a hypothetical possibility, but now I realize he meant it as a fact.  Looking at the old ads for the car in the CCCA Bulletin, the car is owned by Mike Fairbairn, profiled here as "one of the three founders of RM Sotheby's" who now works at the auction house.  So the auction house is selling its co-founder/employee's car, and that very high estimate is presumably affected by that relationship. And note the asking price at which the car didn't sell in the CCCA ad from last year -- $180K.  Takes some chutzpah to then offer it with an estimate of $225-275K.  

 

 

Screen Shot 2016-09-24 at 1.30.48 PM.png

Edited by 1935Packard (see edit history)
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  • 2 weeks later...

The '35 Convertible Victoria just went for $175K plus buyer's premium; the '37 Convertible Sedan went for $250K plus buyer's premium.  If the buyer's premium was 10%, which I vaguely recall seeing at other RM auctions, then the Victoria went for $192K and the Convertible Sedan for $275K. 

Edited by 1935Packard (see edit history)
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I don't think the victoria sold, unless it sold after the block. It bid to $175K but it sounded like a no-sale. It was rougher than it appears in photos and didn't look great sitting on the stage (does it even have a top? I've never seen it). I think the '37 convertible sedan brought strong money, but it was also a very nice car (although there was a problem with its pedigree--the guy they claimed to be the restorer didn't restore it). '37s are special because they're the last of the 144-inch wheelbase chassis but have the independent suspension and hydraulic brakes, so if you want one of those big convertible sedans, the '37s are really the best to own. There's one more coming up tomorrow, so it'll be interesting to see how a '39 compares.

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5 hours ago, Matt Harwood said:

I don't think the victoria sold, unless it sold after the block. It bid to $175K but it sounded like a no-sale. It was rougher than it appears in photos and didn't look great sitting on the stage (does it even have a top? I've never seen it). I think the '37 convertible sedan brought strong money, but it was also a very nice car (although there was a problem with its pedigree--the guy they claimed to be the restorer didn't restore it). '37s are special because they're the last of the 144-inch wheelbase chassis but have the independent suspension and hydraulic brakes, so if you want one of those big convertible sedans, the '37s are really the best to own. There's one more coming up tomorrow, so it'll be interesting to see how a '39 compares.

 

Matt, thanks for your comments. I always enjoy your well-informed perspectives on the car market.  I had thought the '35 sold, but you may be right that it didn't -- I'm not sure. 

 

Do you have any thoughts on why the '35 bid up as high as it did?  Just looking at the pictures, it needs everything, and there's so much on there that is wrong/non-original that it seems more like a restoration candidate than an original car to preserve.  I don't know if you have particular thoughts on how the market thinks about that kind of car in that kind of condition, but if you do I'd love to hear them.

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I looked at it last night but the lighting in the tent is horrible.  They paint was better than I expected but Matt is correct, everything looks better in the pictures!  I think this car was for sale at 180k so they just needed that last bid to get it there.  I would take the Victoria all day over the Convertible sedan but the 2-300k difference in condition is a big deal.   For me the LeBaron Pierce is the star of the show.  The Auburn is nice enough but for the money it will bring the door handles should be straight.  The Murphy Duesenberg is of course awesome.

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The '39 Twelve convertible sedan brought $155,000 tonight. Maybe not as nice as the '37, but still a nice car, although it's been on Hyman's website for months with no takers. It appears that it is a mistake to generalize that all the 1935-1939 Twelve convertible sedans are valued the same.

 

I think I would prefer a convertible sedan to be honest I've never liked the huge blind quarters on the victorias, and while the convertible sedans also have huge blind quarters, they're proportionally smaller on the longer body. This particular victoria is kind of interesting, but it's right on the cusp of being usable as-is. I think if you start chipping away at things to get it roadworthy without a restoration, you'll end up with 40% of a restoration done anyway and at that point, it'll start to make sense to just go all the way. Fairbairn should have taken the $175K offered or he should send the car downstairs to their restoration shop and do it right and turn it into a $300,000 car.

 

Also, the Murphy Duesenberg was to die for!

 

No bargains in this auction. Not many surprises, either.

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A 1939 Packard 12 convertible sedan recently changed hands for a lot less money, it had an engine issue.  There were 20 V-12 convertible sedans built in 1939 by Packard, of which I believe 14 or 15 are extant.  The one I just mentioned originally had removable glass windows in the large rear quarters, per the request of the original buyer of the car. The windows are no longer on the car....

 

So, Matt, you may have liked that one more!

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9 minutes ago, bdc said:

I can see why a V12 with engine issues sold for a lot less. Get a quote for rebuilding one from the few guys that are left that still can do it and you understand why.

 

Expect 45-60k beginning to end for a full boat engine job.  That is doing every little detail.  You could probably pull an engine and just do the internals only for 30k.  Maybe.

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Guest shinyhubcap

I wince when I hear guys bat figures around on properly re-conditioning Packard V-12 motors.  For ANY amount of money !

 

As BDC points out, very VERY few are left who can do this - I would be surprised if there are more than ten human beings left on the planet who know enough about that unique motor, who could "skin" a Packard V-12  motor down to the "nubs" without ruining it, much less re-assemble it and have a properly working motor .

 

Assuming someone KNOWS what they are doing, AND assuming a properly maintained Packard V-12, meaning regular oil changes and no corrosion in the heads and front timing case cover,   valve grind and re-ring - few thousand dollars for both parts and shop labor should do it. 

 

Yeah...right..given how so many old motors have been abused by incompetent mechanics  and / or left to rot  - not likely you could get that lucky.

 

Here's  the problem.  The Packard V-12 is unique - quite a bit different and more complex to re-build than ANY big American engine of that era. 

 

For example,  most boring bars wont work on the cylinders .   Even the mighty Duesenberg's  cylinders can be re-bored at any well-equipped machine shop.   The Packard V-12 has wedge-shaped combustion chambers - explains why, for what is essentially an "L" head design, they can produce so much power..  Trouble is...Packard V-12's  got its wedge-shaped combustion chambers by making the bore NOT at right angles to the top of the cyl. block. 

 

Then there is the matter of crankshaft grinding and connecting rod bearings.   Those issues alone would take several pages to discuss intelligently.   Yeah -  just take the con rods....for example - the bolts  on the '35 - '39 Packard V-12... how many people are left who can intelligently discuss that, much less understand the tech. problems involved.

 

Or  even what APPEARS to be simple stuff....how about that Stromberg EE-3 carb ( how many shops understand how fragile the "threads" are on the main-jet plugs - how easy it is to turn one into junk.

 

I can not recommend buying a Packard V-12 unless the engine was worked on by one of the survivors of our "inner circle" - for anyone outside that circle, it would be a bottom-less money pit with little chance you'd get a useable motor out of them.

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13 hours ago, shinyhubcap said:

Or  even what APPEARS to be simple stuff....how about that Stromberg EE-3 carb ( how many shops understand how fragile the "threads" are on the main-jet plugs - how easy it is to turn one into junk.

 

The big problem with the main-jet plugs on the Stromberg EE-3 (and other type EE carbs) are a pair of needle-nosed pliers!!!

 

The Stromberg jets require a special tool, which is quite easy to make, but obviously not as easy as grabbing a pair of needle-nose pliers and ruining the threads.

 

When we were still restoring carbs, we finally had to machine new plugs with a slightly oversized thread to save some of these carbs!

 

I guess the real problem is the design. Stromberg did not have the foresight to envision the lack of talent of future "mechanics".

 

Jon.

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If anyone still gives a rip, I looked at both 12 conv sedans. The 37 was head and antlers above the 39 in fit, finish, detail and more. The 39 had issues with all 4 doors. It had a few other things about the hood and quality of the chrome plating. I've never been a fan of 38-9 Packard models whether senior or junior. The front is just so cumbersome and out of place with the rest. Those fat fenders and grill that look like a 37 which suffered a head-on collision. I've heard a few folks gush about the split W/S on the 38-9 "...makes it worth so much more...", yeah. Worth so much more critique to me, and I'll go on record to say much of this is indeed just 'me' and my outlook. I won't add to the Victoria talk as there's volumes of such within this forum. So at the end of the day, Frank or Dean? Chocolate or Vanilla? Blonde or Brunette? 35-7 or 38-9? I think the selling price of the 37 really spoke to it's condition. If you had a free no rust no dent 37 12 you "couldn't get there from here", even with the 10% juice, at that price. Average national shop rate is something over $65/hr. There's about $40K in contracted services and new parts required, another $15K in paint and upholstery supplies, so that leaves about 3400 hours to do a full nut-and-bolt restoration at $65/hr. Anyone here that's gone through it on a senior Packard, either doing or paying for it, knows that estimate to be dead on. Me? I'd take a coupe version of the senior cars, 34 through 37, skip 38-9, jump to 1940-41. But that's me and I don't want everyone to think and like what I do. Do you? Cheers...

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9 hours ago, Highlander160 said:

 Average national shop rate is something over $65/hr. There's about $40K in contracted services and new parts required, another $15K in paint and upholstery supplies, so that leaves about 3400 hours to do a full nut-and-bolt restoration at $65/hr. Anyone here that's gone through it on a senior Packard, either doing or paying for it, knows that estimate to be dead on.

 

Yes, that matches what I have been told.

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  • 3 years later...
On 9/24/2016 at 10:34 AM, 1935Packard said:

K8096 wrote above: "One explanation for the high auction estimate could be the person selling the 1935 victoria is closely associated with RM Auctions, so why not reach for the sky?"  I had assumed that K8096 meant the first part of that as just a hypothetical possibility, but now I realize he meant it as a fact.  Looking at the old ads for the car in the CCCA Bulletin, the car is owned by Mike Fairbairn, profiled here as "one of the three founders of RM Sotheby's" who now works at the auction house.  So the auction house is selling its co-founder/employee's car, and that very high estimate is presumably affected by that relationship. And note the asking price at which the car didn't sell in the CCCA ad from last year -- $180K.  Takes some chutzpah to then offer it with an estimate of $225-275K.  

 

 

Screen Shot 2016-09-24 at 1.30.48 PM.png

 

 

With apologies for reviving a thread from three years ago, it looks like the same car is being offered by RM Sotheby's again.  It will be interesting to see how it goes 3+ years later.  

https://rmsothebys.com/en/auctions/az20/arizona/lots/r0079-1935-packard-twelve-convertible-victoria/838016

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5 hours ago, 1935Packard said:

With apologies for reviving a thread from three years ago,

 

Orin, people call it "necroing" a thread.   But I think it makes complete sense to continue a discussion in one place,  maybe over many years with breaks in it.   I guess that's because I see the forum as a database.

 

I saw that Mike was giving it another try the Packard.   Given the perceived softness in the market right now it will be interesting.

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It is a very nice 35 and personally I understand the benefits of a 1937, though I prefer a 1935 and 1936.  Also, an advantage of a Convertible Victoria is that if you cannot adjust the front seat to your height, then you can just relocate the tracks and make it fit your height.

 

I assume finding a set of 1935-1936 Twelve wheels will be painful - not sure why the originals would have failed though (perhaps problems getting tires in WWII). 

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One must remember price is very often not the reason a car does or does not sell. Even if one chooses to assume the market for this particular car is softer today than it was three years ago, selling motivation may be different.........needing more room, funding other projects, or collection reduction all come into play. Mike usually has nice stuff. I’m sure I looked at this car a few years ago, but I don’t remember it.

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Three years ago there was a lot of chatter about body swaps and verifying provenance.  The simple solution is looking at the data plate. If the car has a beautiful grungy data plate, where the font of the serial number is markedly different from the font of the selling date...you can be pretty sure how it was born.  If you have a shiny reproduction data plate where the font of the serial number is identical to the font of the selling date....THEN you need to do some homework!

All serial numbers were stamped at the factory with the model number and unique number.  The selling dealer used his own punch set to list the dealership, location and selling date.

(At least that's the way it was in 1937....)

1063-257.jpg

1502-216.jpg

1003-1566.jpg

Edited by 37PackardMan
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37Packman, there are people on this thread with a lot more experience than I have, but I agree that the data plate on a Packard of that period is something to check first, especially if it is fully filled out (as it was supposed to be, but often wasn't) and especially if it is from a well-known dealer (like PMCCO-NY), enabling you to check all the different fonts to see that they are factory correct and dealer correct.    There are other factory markings to check on the cars I am familiar with, but the data plate is always a good start.  I recently brought a car with what sure looks to me to be an original data plate to a shop for some cosmetic work, and the shop owner asked me if I wanted to replace that beaten up one with a nice new one. I couldn't have said "no way!" any faster. 

 

With that said, I don't think I would treat an original-looking data plate as definitive.  First, they can be easily swapped, so you could have an original correct data plate on a different car.   I was recently reading an auction description of a '34 Packard that the auction house claimed was "recent reunited" with its original data plate.  Your first photo appears to be a correct original PMCCO data plate, but I don't think Packard used the then-new Phillips-head screws to attach them that year; it's likely still the right data plate for the car, but I assume  someone removed the plate at some point during a restoration/work for painting or something.   Second, I assume it's possible to fake an original-looking data plate with enough time and effort.  It's not likely for a normal car, but  I assume certainly could happen with a particularly special one.  I'll defer to others who have seen/heard of that happening....

Edited by 1935Packard (see edit history)
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You are correct about the Phillips-head screws.  This car is our 'driver'....NOT a show car.  It had been given a functional paint job  about 30 years ago before I had acquired it.   I  assume that the painter was just not careful with  the proper screws.

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  • 1 month later...
On 11/30/2019 at 11:38 PM, 1935Packard said:

 

 

With apologies for reviving a thread from three years ago, it looks like the same car is being offered by RM Sotheby's again.  It will be interesting to see how it goes 3+ years later.  

https://rmsothebys.com/en/auctions/az20/arizona/lots/r0079-1935-packard-twelve-convertible-victoria/838016

 

Curious if anyone knows what happened with this car.  RM's website always takes a few days to post results.  AJ, do you know?

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7 hours ago, 1935Packard said:

 

Thanks, AJ!  Seems reasonable.

 

That car was owned by Mike Fairbairn of RM auctions.   This is at least the 3rd time I've seen it at auction.   It started out as a barn find,  and each time something else had been done.   By this weekend,  it had new wheels and tires,  interior and top.   I'm sure there has been some mechanical work.    Prior it looked like he was aiming for somewhere around 175k,  but I think the real market value has been established at this  point.

 

It looked good at 10 feet,  but up close you were in a bit of no man's land with having to do everything or nothing.   The work that has been done does blend in pretty well,  which is what I would expect if the RM shop was doing the work.

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3 hours ago, alsancle said:

 

That car was owned by Mike Fairbairn of RM auctions.   This is at least the 3rd time I've seen it at auction.   It started out as a barn find,  and each time something else had been done.   By this weekend,  it had new wheels and tires,  interior and top.   I'm sure there has been some mechanical work.    Prior it looked like he was aiming for somewhere around 175k,  but I think the real market value has been established at this  point.

 

It looked good at 10 feet,  but up close you were in a bit of no man's land with having to do everything or nothing.   The work that has been done does blend in pretty well,  which is what I would expect if the RM shop was doing the work.

Posted  $120,400.  

 

In the auction brochure photos it had some sort of cobbled up wheel rims on it - a 12 has a "rolled" rim wheel and unfortunately they do not grow on trees - especially when you would need 4 plus. 

 

Also had a terrible radiator ornament, but originals and certainly reproductions are pretty rare finds at the moment

Edited by John_Mereness (see edit history)
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I'm not in love with the wood strips they tacked on to the luggage rack, myself. Nevertheless, I think we've finally found the right price. As AJ mentioned, it's on the cusp of needing everything and I bet the "sorting" that has been done probably hasn't really put it into road-worthy condition. So the choices are to start spending money or start spending money; the purchase was merely the first of many checks the next owner will be writing regardless of how he decides to proceed.

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12 hours ago, Matt Harwood said:

 As AJ mentioned, it's on the cusp of needing everything and I bet the "sorting" that has been done probably hasn't really put it into road-worthy condition. So the choices are to start spending money or start spending money; the purchase was merely the first of many checks the next owner will be writing regardless of how he decides to proceed.

 

Agreed.  Been there, on a similar car, although only once -- enough to persuade me not to do it again.  :)  That was what led me to post the original comment on the thread: I couldn't figure out why that car had such a big estimate at the 2016 auction  -- $225K-$275K--  when it needed everything.  

 

12 hours ago, John_Mereness said:

 

Also had a terrible radiator ornament, but originals and certainly reproductions are pretty rare finds at the moment

 

I bought my repro cormorant from Fred Mauck 7 or 8 years ago, I think for $600 or $700.   I know Fred died in 2015; I wonder who if anyone is still making them. 

 

 Looks like some great deals on some CCCA cars at that auction. Unless I'm missing something, whoever bought that 1929 Auburn Eight Cabriolet for $51.5K got a great car for super cheap. 

 

 

Edited by 1935Packard (see edit history)
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