mrcvs Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 I will be 45 years old in a few weeks. I happened to go to a nearby restaurant after the Macungie Car Show (Das Awkscht Fescht) a few weeks ago and saw about 15 lined up, all Packard owners meeting after the show. I noted that the age of these members is...well, advanced. Spoke with a few of them and they all said they need younger blood...younger Packard owners. It seems like, to me, there is little young blood in the car hobby to begin with, and, the few younger folks aren't driving Packards due to the cost. I have always liked Packards, and I believe my grandfather bought a 1937 120 in 1941. In any event...where do you see Packard prices going, and how low can they go? If I am willing to wait another 20 years to get one, by that time, it seems to me, the kids of current Packard owners might be willing to let them go at ANY price just to get a few dollars...with few buyers out there??? Sorry if this is a morbid topic, but, in my case, NOW is probably not the time to buy, as valuations are too high and it may just be a depreciating investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trimacar Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 If you wait, I believe you wait in vain for something that may never happen. Packard prices have never gone down for any length of time, and I don't think they will, as it's the most plentiful Full Classic, a lot of people like them, and there are a lot of Junior series cars at reasonable prices. Waiting for 20 years only deprives you of 20 years of enjoyment. Old cars are an investment in pleasure, and trying to justify it as a financial investment doesn't always make sense. I'd be willing to bet you've bought a 20, 30, or even 40 thousand dollar new car, knowing it'd be worth half that in five years, and never given a thought to it being an "investment". There are nice Packards out there at fair prices. Find one, buy it, have fun and make new friends..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FJD Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 MRCVS Where are you located? I have one if you are interested. PM me I am willing to talk Fred D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edinmass Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Trimacar is correct. Packard prices are not going down. There were a few sales in the last three months that were 3.7 and 4.2 million. Good stuff is not going to get cheaper. Run of the mill and junior series cars will probably keep up with inflation. Find something you like and can afford now, life is short, and we never know what tomorrow will bring. Ed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrcvs Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 Right NOW, prices are steady. But, 20 years from now, where will prices be? Who will be buying these cars in 20 years, when there is little interest in old cars to begin with amongst the younger set? Have you been to a car show lately and seen folks who are younger who are actually interested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trimacar Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Gloom and doom predictions of the antique car hobby have always been interesting. I remember way back when, the Harrah collection was being sold (or at least a big chunk of it), and all the talk was that with 1000 cars dumped on the market, prices would all fall. Didn't happen.There are a lot of younger people in the hobby now, and as they reach ages with earning power equal to value of some old cars, they're buying. For example, early brass cars, there's no one alive today collecting these who was driving them new, and good brass brings good money. The idea that one day prices will crash, and heirs will be "giving away" Packards, is not one that makes sense in the world of collecting. I started collecting cars in the 1960's, and then there was little if any talk of the cars we loved being investments. Yes, it's nice that they have value and have appreciated in value, but if having an "investment" is now your main concern, then you need to rethink your view of the hobby.Again, by waiting, you're missing the fun and friendship that the hobby offers, and you'll regret it twenty years from now when car prices still don't seem to be a good "investment"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bkazmer Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Right NOW, prices are steady. But, 20 years from now, where will prices be? Who will be buying these cars in 20 years, when there is little interest in old cars to begin with amongst the younger set? Have you been to a car show lately and seen folks who are younger who are actually interested?In 20 years, where will you be? No guarantees which side of the grass you'll be looking at either. If you'd like Packards, decide what fits your interest and budget and start shoppinig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alsancle Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Am I having Deja Vu or did we just do this thread regarding brass cars? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrcvs Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 No not deja vu. I am obviously seeking a good car at the right price now or later. There are probably 2 cars in my future and that's about it. I hope to get a brass era car and a Packard. Of course I seem to hope they both become bargains but who knows. It seems to me a relatively few folks are keeping the market artificially high. Realistically do you see many younger folks into old cars? These are not investments for me but I still don't wish to sink 20 to 40 k into a car to find that there are no takers some day at 5 k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alsancle Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 You are too worried about the investment aspect of it. If profiting or not getting killed on the deal long term is that important best to not put your money in cars. However, if you want a car that you will probably not lose money on, I would suggest a mid to late 30s 120 business coupe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrcvs Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 I should clarify why not losing my shirt is important. For me 10 k is a lot of money. I have never spent more than 15 k on anything except real estate. The 20 to 40 k a brass era car or Packard might run me is a stretch to begin with and hard earned money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trimacar Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 There is nothing that you can buy today, car or otherwise, and predict what it will be worth 20 years from now. Nor is the reverse true, one can't predict that the value of anything will go down, because "no one's interested" 20 years from now. I see and hear that argument all the time, that someone has a 19something Gogomobile, they're asking twice what the market is for the car, and then say "see, no one's interested in these old cars anymore". It's about price and condition, and good quality cars at fair prices always find a buyer. I was on the phone last night with a 35 year old gentleman, who has some very nice early cars. I know of an 18 year old that already has a collector car. Funny how these big collections of cars go on the market, and the cars get bought, sometimes at very high prices, and the "market" doesn't suffer. I also agree, if you're worried about the investment aspect of owning an old car, then you may want to reconsider why you want to own one in the first place. An antique car will never qualify as a "safe" investment, nor will any collectable item.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrcvs Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 Now that I think about this rationally, it might be best to buy a nice car that is in decent shape and requires little work. Perhaps I offer a little more than I want to but not something requiring more work and expense in the long run. This is doable financially in the next five years or so. At least I have direction or a goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hupp36 Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 mrcvs, did you happen to look at the 1931 833 I have listed for sale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrcvs Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 mrcvs, did you happen to look at the 1931 833 I have listed for sale?Yes, just found it. I have to be honest with you, I WISH I had $70,000 to spend on a car, but this is way out of my price range. As discussed in another section on this forum (brass cars), those in my generation have faced years of stagnant wages and wages have gone nowhere for 25 years. I bang my head against the wall about this all the time. If wages had continued in the upward trajectory that they had for the 25 to 35 years following WWII, oh, think of all the TOYS I could have bought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigersdad Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I think everyone needs to re-read David's (Trimacar) answers to this thread. Very eloquently stated, thought out, and correct! I am 50 and just bought my life long dream of owning a Packard. I also have the 1932 Buick 8-86 Travelers Coupe (pictured and completely restored), the 1931 Cadillac 355A, and 3 other cars, since sold. I, personally, have watched the prices of Packard's steadily go up over the last 8 years.......................there is the old, shoulda, woulda, coulda, saying, but the Packard I ended up with is an elegant car. I waited and found the right one, for me, right now. I wish I had bought the 1933 Club Sedan or the 1930 733 Coupe, but the longer you wait, like has been stated, the longer you deprive yourself of the fun of driving and owning one of these beauties. The price for me was right....I was happy.......the seller (now a good friend) was happy, and we will both enjoy the car when he and his wife come and visit. Jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigersdad Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 PS to MRCVS: There are a number of younger people here in the San Francisco Bay Area that own and drive old cars. Specifically a late '30's early '40's club and they dress in this era on a daily basis. Don't judge the age of a car and associate it with the age of the owner! Some of my closest friends range from their 30's to the their 70's and there is one common denominator....................the love of the cars! Jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrcvs Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 PS to MRCVS: There are a number of younger people here in the San Francisco Bay Area that own and drive old cars. Specifically a late '30's early '40's club and they dress in this era on a daily basis. Don't judge the age of a car and associate it with the age of the owner! Some of my closest friends range from their 30's to the their 70's and there is one common denominator....................the love of the cars! JayThat is great to hear that. Maybe the good California weather and the number of days one can drive the car annually plays a factor. I don't see that so much on the east coast. Usually an antique car comes attached to an older gentleman or couple who are in their retirement years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alsancle Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Packard has a very strong following at all age levels. I would argue that unless we are talking a Dietrich bodied car prices have been "stable" for the last 20 years. I know that in the mid-90s a 35/36 standard Phaeton was a 100-120k car. I think that you are probably talking about the same price now. Maybe a bit more. Forgetting about the inflation calculation the prices have remained steady. Even the Darrin bodied cars are roughly what they were 10 years ago. A phenomenon I have not been able to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edinmass Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I would like to buy a Darrin, so I hope they tank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alsancle Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I would like to buy a Darrin, so I hope they tank! Ed, you know the drill, it only takes a few guys to decide they have to have one and the small supply cars go crazy. Still, I'm shocked that they are not 400k cars given the rest of the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrcvs Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 Okay, I am clearly 'middle class', so I don't know what planet you are all on, no offence! I mean, when I go to the grocery store, I look for bargains, and when the bill is $80 or $100, which it often is, this seems like a lot of money...still! $20,000, to me, is a LOT OF MONEY for a car, whether it is brand new, classic, or otherwise. The most I have ever spent for a car was almost $15,000, and this was 10 years ago, I still have the car, and intend to drive it another 15 years. I intend to replace it, when it goes, with a 'classic' of some sort--that will be my daily driver. Then again, not for work driving is very minimal. BUT, to toss around figures like $100,000, $120,000, $70,000, these figures seem like they are enough to buy a property, and now, maybe not, but they still represent a substantial down payment. At the end of the day, with stagnant wages, there is little left over. I lead a far-from-extravagant lifestyle, but after paying a mortgage, a loan on an investment property, a student loan, well, it would be dishonest to say there is nothing left over, because there IS, but, it means that $10,000 is reachable, but it takes time, same with $20,000, but any more than that is reaching for the stars! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trimacar Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 In the range of $10K to $20K, your options for a Packard will be limited, and many of the available options will be for non-Classic Junior series cars. Still great drivers, but not Full Classics. Ed, I'm sure you've driven a Darrin before....or that would be my guess? Beautiful cars, sloppy workmanship when they were built new, and some driving issues now. I drove a beautifully restored one, and the cowl shake was quite interesting at certain speeds!! I'm middle class too, by the way, just have been very fortunate over the years to run into some nice cars, some of which I was able to keep. MrCVS, I do hope you find a car to have fun with, good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigersdad Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Ed - Funny comment about the Darrin! The best laugh I've had all day!!! Good one! Jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edinmass Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I am middle class also. Although some around town would insist I am LOW CLASS! I get lots of comments on the car as I drive and the money I spend on them. I don't drink , I don't gamble , and I don't wear 300 dollar pairs of blue jeans. A Hundred dollars to me seems like a big grocery bill. But there are only two of us. My everyday driver is an 18-year-old car I paid $700 for. I Invest my money where I think I get the most return. I particularly enjoy cars , vacation , and other assorted antiques. I skimp and skim in many parts of my life in order to have things I want. I guess this just an issue of priorities. Like most others here since the crash my income has been very stagnant and down. The years of my life where I should be making the best income I'm just bumping along on the low side of where I was and expected to be. I've made up my mind to enjoy my life the best of my ability , adjusted for my current income. Find a car that fits your budget and drive it today there is no guarantee for tomorrow , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Harwood Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 (edited) People have been predicting the demise of old car collecting for decades. In the '60s, everyone was wondering where the next generation of buyers for brass cars will come from. Yet somehow, there's always an enthusiastic owner behind the wheel. Packards are no different, and while the minor post-war cars, the junior series sixes, and a few others may remain very affordable, for the most part they will not get cheaper because your theory is badly flawed. Interest won't die down to the point where owners are desperate to sell for pennies on the dollar. The minute they do, I'll start grabbing them myself, and I'm only 45. I've got 30-40 years of collecting yet to do and I'm watching the market VERY carefully. I strongly suspect that I am far from being alone in that regard. There will always be demand for good cars. Sitting out of the game for decades waiting for prices to go down seems to me like a great way to spend 20 years doing nothing but sitting on the sidelines. Buy a car today to enjoy, even if it's not your ultimate dream car. Get in the game and you can always sell it and upgrade later. Appreciation can work in your favor, not necessarily against you, you know. Edited August 26, 2015 by Matt Harwood (see edit history) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alsancle Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The only Darrin I have driven is a Connersville built 40 Super 8 and there are zero build issues with it. With the overdrive it travels 75 mph all day long, doors shut great (there are no extra little hooks holding them shut) no rattles, etc. It is really a good car. I thinking the build issues were with the Hollywood built cars. Ed's advice is good. Find a car that suits your budget and enjoy it. I know for a fact that the guy with 110 business coupe gets as much joy from his car as the one with Lebaron bodied speedster, maybe more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alsancle Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 You can hear the doors shut in this video: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edinmass Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Dave, I have driven three Darrins, all were the later cars, I think they are one of the best late pre war cars. Style, and drivability. They are a bargin compared to a lot of other cars of the same era. I have had one on my list for a long time. I am sure one will fall into my lap before I am too old to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trimacar Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 There must have been a problem with the Darrin I drove. I put an interior and top on it, and was able to inspect the construction, and it wasn't pretty on the inside, poor welds and such, and each side of the car was significantly different in dimensions, things you find out when making door and other panels. I'll quit basing my opinion on driving this one car, the one pictured in my driveway. Putting a new top on this one was the biggest challenge, as there's no front bow, just two pieces of metal that clip into the windshield. Fitting the top was quite interesting due to that fact! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bkazmer Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 At the end of the day, with stagnant wages, there is little left over. I lead a far-from-extravagant lifestyle, but after paying a mortgage, a loan on an investment property, a student loan, well, it would be dishonest to say there is nothing left over, because there IS, but, it means that $10,000 is reachable, but it takes time, same with $20,000, but any more than that is reaching for the stars! I don't see an issue with your budget, provided you expect to buy a $15,000 car with $15,000, and not a $30,000 car. What Packard(s) are you interested in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alsancle Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Dave, I'm basing my opinion on only one car too! I have a feeling that some of what you say must be true as the prices don't really make sense within the context of the broader market. Of course, as a friend pointed out to me last night, somebody paid 190k for a 190SL MB at the St Johns auction. Strange times. If I was going to buy a 15k Packard, I would aim for a 39/40 120 business coupe. If I had 30k to spend I would get a 36/37 120 Business coupe. If I had 50k to spend I would aim for the convertible coupe (even a 110). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrcvs Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 Don't bother even thinking about the $50,000 to $200,000 cars unless you make that kind of money of course. Many of the old time Packard collectors that own full classic Packards bought them at $125 in the sixties and even though it would show good stewardship to sell them at a loss to someone who will move the hobby forward, they won't. For one thing, people are greedy and I am sure the new owner would turn around and try to make a profit on the sale. Most of the old car hobby now is about "how much is it worth." Regrettable but true. I have the usual middle income trappings that limit my ability to buy an old Packard from savings, so I fund my driver purchases in two ways - loans from a frozen 401k and a revolving high percentage credit product. I think it is unfortunate that everything today IS about how much is it worth? I don't know if 'Antiques Roadshow' did this (although I DO enjoy that show), folks investing in real estate only to be underwater only 10 years later, the state of retirements and the lack of pensions/the need to fund one's own retirement, the state of employment in this country and everyone's increasing dislike for their job (which makes sense--when there are more folks available to fill good jobs, perks suddenly disappear and wages remain stagnant). WAS IT ALWAYS like this? I think if wages had kept up with where they should have (I read somewhere that if they had increased at the rate they had in the 1950's and '60's, a 'middle class' income today would be $150,000 to $300,000), there would not be this over-riding concern as to what items cost. Indeed, one of those I supervise discussed this with me recently. He is breaking his neck to work all weekend on overtime, I work as much of it as I can, which isn't as much as I would like, BUT, if one's income increased 5 or 10% annually, or if he and I earned about 1/3 to 1/2 more than we did now, there would not be this burning desire to suck up overtime, but rather it would become, there is overtime available, I don't feel like working it, the weather is nice out. Then again, maybe if wages were at the numbers suggested above, an entry level Packard would be $100,000. For some reason, though, I think they would roughly be the same, as Packards seem to have continually increased, for the most part, so far, independent of lack of wage growth. Now that I write this, I think a large part of it today might be being significantly in the hole before even one begins. I mean, at the rate colleges have increased costs, and, being younger, the expectations one has NO MATTER the cost (!!!), and when this does not pan out, younger folks are struggling to make ends meet. Even nearly 30 years ago, when I was ending high school, there was tis pressure to go to college, which wasn't necessarily the right thing to do, and this belief that 'it will be all worth it', because there will be so much opportunity out there, etc. I fell for that trap. FORTUNATELY, money was not leant as easily as it was now, and I attended college the cheapest way possible, and ended up a few thousand in the hole, which I paid off quickly. My starting salary at my first Federal position with DC locality pay was $30,119 in 1995. It is easy to see now (there are tables for this) that if I started today, I would be earning $42,631. An increase in pay of only ~40% over a generation explains why things are the way they are. In the meantime tuition costs have quadrupled, perhaps. And then everyone who has a particular item, and pointed out, thinks they have a goldmine. These old-times hold out for top dollar, maybe because of may of the reasons outlined above. So...why do I write this? Well, it is one of the most frustrating things out there that one has to be about 'how much does it cost', 'Can I afford it', etc. I'm not saying that I need a multi-million dollar property with several nice storage buildings full of hundreds or thousands of vintage cars. However, it would be nice if most things out there could be had modestly on a middle class salary. You want a few nice Packards, not a problem, not a budget buster. You need a property with some acreage and a few barns for storage, not a problem, not a stretch, and, oh, when you do buy it, you don't have to worry about being under water 10 years later. The stories my grandfather told about things he bought just after WWII, and the stuff he passed up, all on a modest salary, are truly amazing. I also heard stories from old-timers about land they bought in the '30's and '40's, for 25 cents an acre. One old timer told me he had to pay $20 an acre in the 1960's and thought this was a lot, and this was in southern New England. Okay, enough perambulating. I just read somewhere that those that are movers and shakers today look to the future, and tend not to be nostalgic. Perhaps that is why I am not one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Restorer32 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Have you ever heard of a theory generally known as "supply and demand"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrcvs Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 Have you ever heard of a theory generally known as "supply and demand"?Well that's it in a nutshell! Demand for Packards right now exceeds supply.Supply of skilled workers exceeds demand for them.Result=prices for Packards increases, wages remain flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trimacar Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I believe it's all about choices.A lot of young people today have financial problems, because they want it all right now....big house, fine car, fanciest cell phone, most cable channels.....in previous generations, one would start out modestly and work up....not now, and that's why most young married couples both have to work, to support the lifestyle they want now, not later.That's the case with so many people. Most could live off wages received and not struggle, IF they're willing not to pay that $200 a month cable bill, the same for a fancy cell phone, and so forth. Most are not willing to give up what they think they're entitled to......I recently mentioned a car to a friend, told him I'd like to have it, but don't have the money to buy it. Oh, he says, you HAVE the money, you just choose to keep that money in other things.So, one can complain about how unfair life might be, or one can make choices that have good outcomes and move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Restorer32 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Much truth in what trimicar says. I am in local government and find it amusing that folks constantly complain to us about their sewer bills yet the average cable TV bill in the town is considerably higher than the sewer bill. All a matter of priorities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alsancle Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 This thread feels more and more like the brass car one every minute. What other country in the world is there where the poor have cell phones, cable TV and air conditioning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imperialover Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I don't know if the OP would be interested, but, over on the HAMB in the classified section there is a '49 to '50 (I can't remember the exact year) Packard for sale for under $2,000. It needs engine work but the body still looks pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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